So phew it's been a long ride. Ill do more recapping once the years is over, as we still have another 4-6 weeks left.
I do not think I need to explain what made this season, because I think we all know. But it's been a wild ride. It all started in May, with Amanda, and was followed by Cristina a few weeks later. What did Amanda do? It set the tone for the season. It was the first storm that explosively intensified. When the rest of the storms, intensified it was admittedly marginally less shocking (though still fun as hec). When Amanda exploded (and Cristina too), it was downright shocking.
With that said, I wouldn't even say Amanda was the storm that caused me to know for sure that this season was gonna be one for the ages. Anyone here remember that invest that formed off the MX coast in early May? Had it been declared, which IMO should have, it would have been the record earliest in EPAC proper. After that invest, you just knew something was going to happen. Something big.
And it did
I won't go into the storm by storm details this go around, but quite amazingly, all of the hype and aggressive forecast have pretty much verified. Which coming off 2013 AHS forecasting disaster, is quite a miracle lol.
Over the past month, wind shear and vertical instability has tried to stop storms in certain situations. Over the past few days; however, instability increased while shear diminished. Both are good signs going forward that the weekly TC rate of activity should persist.With that said, the EPAC SST's although were at record levels, have come down a bit due to too many storms in one area as waters that were 32C are now 28-29C. That's still warm enough to support more hurricanes though, provided all the other ingredients are right. If it does for the next four weeks, we'd end up with 21 storms, which sounds about right given the aforementioned factors.
The main amazing thing about this seaosn has been not so much the quantity but the quality. For the last six weeks, we have seen a mind blogging six majors. In addition, the last 10 named storms have become hurricanes, a record. Given the increasing instability, I see no reason for it to not continue to some extent, given the QBQ pattern and record SST's.
On another note, if we get 10 majors we will tie the record set in 1992.
21 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 11 major hurricanes. Overall, not much change from the August outlook, only adjusted upward quite a bit due to the latest patterns.
In a few days, I might go on further about why the 2014 PHS was so active.