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  • YE

    Welcome to this outlook; doing something I have not done in quite some time. 2014 and 2015 were some of the most banner, yet tiring years in the Eastern Pacific's long history. Does the season continue on it's 2014 and 2015 legacy, or do we head down a new path?


    Due to the activity of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season, which resulted in a series of insane intense typhoons, a westerly wind burst, in which the warmer waters of the West Pacific are moved to the Central and Eastern Pacific, was triggered, which combined with a warm sub-surface Pacific, sparked a weak El Nino event by September 2014. This Nino event stayed weaker than what most expected for much of 2014, but as the normally warm waters of the West Pacific cooled in early 2015, res…


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  • YE

    Hope everyone is enjoying their summer. So far in Vegas, it's been pretty nice, and it's cloudy as I type this. The PHS is on to a record start, now the question is will it stay that way?


    ENSO is a huge wildcard when forecasting EPAC seasons. Sure, recent research done by me has suggested that there are many other factors that need to be taken into account. But let's not understate the importance of ENSO.

    Right now, as you probably know, we are in the midst of an El Nino event. El Nino has large effects on the weather across the globe, such as drought in India and Australia, and record rains across Peru, and certain parts of Africa. El Nino is the reversal of trade winds (from easterly to westerly) that turns the EPAC into the WPAC. In the U…


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  • YE

    So, good afternoon everybody. Yep, it's that time of month again. With hurricane season underway, it's time for my second hurricane seaosn outlook typically done in late May. My next outlook is set for June, but it could be in July.


    As of late, El Nino has been intensifying. Although officially according to the Climate Prediction Center, Nino 3+4 weeklies have remained the same at +1.0C for four consecutive weeks, dating back to shortly after my April outlook, satellite data courtesy of Levi Cowan has indicated that over the past few weeks, Nino 3.4 (official one), Nino 3 (around 150Wish), and Nino 1+2 (off South America) have been slowly warming. Having a head start with this Nino starting back in May of last year, but staying very weak un…


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  • YE

    Happy April! April Showers bring May flowers, but here in the Nevada desert, there is no rain at this time of year. Flowers are blooming and the days are getting longer and longer! Winter has been record warmth this year here in Vegas, but will that carry over to the hurricane seaosn?


    In 2013, an unusually powerful +NPO block was noted across the Gulf of Alaska. This spark, which not only triggered a very cold winter across the US that year, warmed the water since high pressure means warmer sea surface temperature. This is at least partially responsible for a +PDO flip that was noted in early 2014, and sparked the EPAC in 2014.


    As you guys probably know and remember very well, the 2014 Pacific hurricane season was a banner and magical year f…



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  • YE

    So phew it's been a long ride. Ill do more recapping once the years is over, as we still have another 4-6 weeks left.


    I do not think I need to explain what made this season, because I think we all know. But it's been a wild ride. It all started in May, with Amanda, and was followed by Cristina a few weeks later. What did Amanda do? It set the tone for the season. It was the first storm that explosively intensified. When the rest of the storms, intensified it was admittedly marginally less shocking (though still fun as hec). When Amanda exploded (and Cristina too), it was downright shocking.

    With that said, I wouldn't even say Amanda was the storm that caused me to know for sure that this season was gonna be one for the ages. Anyone here remem…


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