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So far this AHS, there have been 7 named storms, with none of them becoming hurricanes. I believe this is a record (beating 2002), unless someone tells me otherwise. Climatology suggests that the season is ahead on named storms, but behind on hurricanes. My prediction for this season includes:
  • 15-17 named storms
  • 6-8 hurricanes
  • 3-5 major hurricanes
  • ACE of 120-150
If I had to make an exact prediction, I would say 16/7/4 (slightly below 2008). I also think that the season will end the "hurricane drought" in the United States that has been in place since Ike. My U.S. impact predictions are below:
  • 4-5 named storms make landfall
  • Out of the 4-5, 2-3 are hurricanes
I don't predict major hurricane landfalls in my seasonal predictions because I believe there isn't a whole lot of skill involved (I might change my mind when I learn more about meteorology/climatology). I do believe there is potential for major hurricane impacts though. Why I made the prediction:
  • Period of hyperactivity since 1995
  • Neutral ENSO, or weak La Nina
  • The way the season has been going so far
I'm not as confident in my prediction for this basin as I am for the Eastern Pacific. Everyone on here needs to wait and see what will happen during the season. If anyone on here has any questions, I'll likely answer them.

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