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This is my first blog post. So far this PHS, there has been 5 named storms, of which all of them developed into hurricanes, and 3 of the 5 became category 4's. What's incredible, is that the season is not in an El Nino and has produced so much activity thus far (in terms of hurricanes). According to climatology produced by the NHC, the season is behind on named storms, a little bit ahead on hurricanes, and well over a month ahead of major hurricanes. My prediction for this season includes:

  • 12-14 named storms
  • 8-10 hurricanes
  • 5-7 major hurricanes
  • ACE of 75-105

If I had to make an exact prediction, I would say 13/9/6, or roughly a 1998 season (with less ACE). Why I made the prediction:

  • Period of inactivity since 1995
  • Neutral ENSO, or weak La Nina (They normally don't enhance activity the same way El Nino does)
  • The way the season has been going so far.

If anyone on here has any questions, I'll likely answer them.

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