• Suprise11
    So far this AHS, there have been 7 named storms, with none of them becoming hurricanes. I believe this is a record (beating 2002), unless someone tells me otherwise. Climatology suggests that the season is ahead on named storms, but behind on hurricanes. My prediction for this season includes:
    • 15-17 named storms
    • 6-8 hurricanes
    • 3-5 major hurricanes
    • ACE of 120-150
    If I had to make an exact prediction, I would say 16/7/4 (slightly below 2008). I also think that the season will end the "hurricane drought" in the United States that has been in place since Ike. My U.S. impact predictions are below:
    • 4-5 named storms make landfall
    • Out of the 4-5, 2-3 are hurricanes
    I don't predict major hurricane landfalls in my seasonal predictions because I believe the…
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  • Suprise11

    This is my first blog post. So far this PHS, there has been 5 named storms, of which all of them developed into hurricanes, and 3 of the 5 became category 4's. What's incredible, is that the season is not in an El Nino and has produced so much activity thus far (in terms of hurricanes). According to climatology produced by the NHC, the season is behind on named storms, a little bit ahead on hurricanes, and well over a month ahead of major hurricanes. My prediction for this season includes:

    • 12-14 named storms
    • 8-10 hurricanes
    • 5-7 major hurricanes
    • ACE of 75-105

    If I had to make an exact prediction, I would say 13/9/6, or roughly a 1998 season (with less ACE). Why I made the prediction:

    • Period of inactivity since 1995
    • Neutral ENSO, or weak La N…
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