At the current rate the tropics are going, I am anticipating an above-average season for worldwide activity of 2011. My official predictions are here.
- 21 named storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
- 1 C5 hurricane
- Overall ACE near normal(1995-now median)
- ACE/storm 80% of average
Given the lack of a large number of hurricanes from 2011's AHS, we probrably won't have very many hurricanes as a whole unless we go on the streak EPac did earlier this year. However, given the activity trends we are at now, an above average season is likely on our way. The lack of number of hurricanes wil hinder the ACE of this season, but we can still come back up in the Atlantic.
We have had one signifigant hurricane hit the United States in 2011 thus far, but will Iren…
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Irene has temporarily weakened to a category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph, but it is forecast to strengthen again, possibly to a major hurricane and then towards the east coast. Irene has trouble all over her, and I think she's waiting for that cold front to pass and then she'll pounce onto New England or the Carolinas like lightning. This storm is going to be making headline news over the next few days, and it definitely bears watching. As with my last two blog posts, what does everyone else see out of this future (potentially disastorous) storm?Read more >
Irene is now a strong tropical storm as it approaches southern Puerto Rico and it is forecast to become a hurricane as it approaches the eastern seaboard. I personally think Irene may reach or exceed 100 mph by the time it approaches the area around Savannah, GA or Charelston, SC. As I mentioned with my last blog post, what do everyone else think will become of Irene down the road? And as I mentioned earlier, please don't doomcast here!Read more >
We currently are watching 97L approaching the Caribbean islands as a vigorous tropical wave, and it has a good chance of becoming Irene as it heads westward, towards the island of Hispaniola and later possibly Cuba and Florida. What does everyone think will become of future Irene as it heads into the Caribbean?(no doomcasting here please).Read more >
This is my first blog post. We have quite a bit of activity in the tropics now, on August 14, 2011. As Franklin dissipated, tropical Depression 7 takes over. It could become Gert, while heading towards Bermuda and out to sea afterwards. Behind Gert lies yet another wave which could become Harvey as it heads up behind TD7. In the EPac, we have an invest at 70% chance of development for the next two days, and one closer to Mexico at only 10% for the next two days. The Western Pacific has slowed down after their hot streak, and currently no storms are active there. The rest of the world remains quiet as well.Read more >