Here are my official predictions for worldwide activity in 2014:


  • 7-12 named storms
  • 4-6 hurricanes
  • 2-3 major hurricanes
  • ACE index 75-95% of median

An El Nino is almost inevitable by now, and SST's in the Pacific are near their warmest on record, even more than the great El Nino of 1997-98. Because of this, the Atlantic will likely be below average in activity in 2014.

East Pacific

  • 16-21 named storms
  • 8-12 hurricanes
  • 4-6 major hurricanes
  • ACE index 105-135% of median

El Nino is rapidly starting to come in, so the EPac will likely be above normal in activity this year.

West Pacific

  • 24-29 named storms
  • 12-15 typhoons
  • 6-8 cat 3 or stronger typhoons
  • 2-4 category 5 super typhoons
  • ACE index 110-140% of median

The WPac will likely be above normal, with a possibly very active late-season due to a seemingly inevitable strong El Nino in 2014.

North Indian

  • 4-6 named storms
  • 1-3 cyclones
  • 0 or 1 cat 3 or stronger cyclones

The NIO will probably be quiet like it usually is, but as it has shown before, it has the potential to produce devastating storms. It's always a basin to watch out for.

Southern Hemisphere

  • 22-26 named storms
  • 12-16 cyclones
  • 5-8 cat 3 or stronger cyclones
  • 1-2 category 5 cyclones

The SHem will probably have activity similar to the WPac, but maybe lower in intensity of storms.

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