Here are my official predictions for worldwide activity in 2014:
- 7-12 named storms
- 4-6 hurricanes
- 2-3 major hurricanes
- ACE index 75-95% of median
An El Nino is almost inevitable by now, and SST's in the Pacific are near their warmest on record, even more than the great El Nino of 1997-98. Because of this, the Atlantic will likely be below average in activity in 2014.
- 16-21 named storms
- 8-12 hurricanes
- 4-6 major hurricanes
- ACE index 105-135% of median
El Nino is rapidly starting to come in, so the EPac will likely be above normal in activity this year.
- 24-29 named storms
- 12-15 typhoons
- 6-8 cat 3 or stronger typhoons
- 2-4 category 5 super typhoons
- ACE index 110-140% of median
The WPac will likely be above normal, with a possibly very active late-season due to a seemingly inevitable strong El Nino in 2014.
- 4-6 named storms
- 1-3 cyclones
- 0 or 1 cat 3 or stronger cyclones
The NIO will probably be quiet like it usually is, but as it has shown before, it has the potential to produce devastating storms. It's always a basin to watch out for.
- 22-26 named storms
- 12-16 cyclones
- 5-8 cat 3 or stronger cyclones
- 1-2 category 5 cyclones
The SHem will probably have activity similar to the WPac, but maybe lower in intensity of storms.