At the current rate the tropics are going, I am anticipating an above-average season for worldwide activity of 2011. My official predictions are here.


  • 21 named storms
  • 7 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes
  • 1 C5 hurricane
  • Overall ACE near normal(1995-now median)
  • ACE/storm 80% of average

Given the lack of a large number of hurricanes from 2011's AHS, we probrably won't have very many hurricanes as a whole unless we go on the streak EPac did earlier this year. However, given the activity trends we are at now, an above average season is likely on our way. The lack of number of hurricanes wil hinder the ACE of this season, but we can still come back up in the Atlantic.

Landfall possibilities

We have had one signifigant hurricane hit the United States in 2011 thus far, but will Irene be the only one in the season? We still have a chance to see a major hurricane cross U.S. soil, but it could happen at any time from now to October. I would probrably look forward to one hitting south Florida or the Carolinas, but we could get one in any place in the U.S.

East Pacific

  • 11 named storms
  • 8 hurricanes
  • 4 majors
  • 0 C5 hurricanes
  • Overall ACE near normal
  • ACE/storm 120% of average

The Eastern Pacific will likely have a below average season this year in number of named storms, but given the high number of hurricanes we have had thus far, the ACE/storm will likely be above the long term average, and we could still have an active late-season on our way.

West Pacific

  • 24 named storms
  • 14 typhoons
  • 9 major typhoons
  • 4 C5 typhoons
  • Total ACE and ACE/storm 105% of average

As it has always been, WPac will be active this year and have a high ACE as it (almost) always does.

North Indian Ocean

  • 2 named storms
  • 1 cyclone, give or take severe or not.
  • Total ACE and ACE/storm near-normal

Given that the North Indian Ocean had no names storms during their first peak in May, we have only October and November to change everything here. We could have one of the least active seasons ever here... However, the ACE/storm should be near-normal.

Southern Hemisphere

  • 20 named storms
  • 11 cyclones
  • 5 major cyclones
  • 0 C5 cyclones
  • Total ACE and ACE/storm near-normal

The lack of SWIO activity in early 2011 hindered us a lot, but we still have a chance to recover from the lack of activity there, and overall activity should be near-normal ACEwise.

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