Began this a little late, but nonetheless, here's my calls for worldwide activity of 2015:
- 7-10 named storms
- 4-6 hurricanes
- 1-3 major hurricanes
- ACE totals 60-95% of median
We are currently in a strong El Nino this year, so the Atlantic is most likely to be below normal in activity.
- 17-22 named storms
- 10-14 hurricanes
- 5-9 major hurricanes
- ACE totals 115-155% of median
Last year's season caught a lot of us by surprise, with my predicted named storm count turning out to be accurate but having a record number of hurricanes, second-highest number of major hurricanes, and having the highest ACE totals in more than 20 years. This year's season is also very likely to be above average due to a strong El Nino this season.
- 22-26 named storms
- 11-15 typhoons
- 3-7 super typhoons (unofficial)
- ACE totals near-normal to above normal
I slightly overshot the number of named storms and typhoons last year, but underestimated the number of super typhoons. But still, like usual, WPac will probably have another typical season, lots of named storms and typhoons, hopefully nothing catastrophic though.
North Indian Ocean
- 3-6 named storms
- 1-3 cyclones
- 0-2 cat 3 or stronger cyclones
Not much needs to be explained here, this basin doesn't often see many outliers, and most people mainly care about ATL and EPac anyways.
- 19-24 named storms
- 11-16 cyclones
- 7-10 cat 3 or stronger cyclones
Pretty normal season altogether...again, most of you are probably only interested in the Atlantic and EPac forecasts anyways.
And there you have it. Any comments?