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  • Ryan1000

    Began this a little late, but nonetheless, here's my calls for worldwide activity of 2015:


    • 7-10 named storms
    • 4-6 hurricanes
    • 1-3 major hurricanes
    • ACE totals 60-95% of median

    We are currently in a strong El Nino this year, so the Atlantic is most likely to be below normal in activity.


    • 17-22 named storms
    • 10-14 hurricanes
    • 5-9 major hurricanes
    • ACE totals 115-155% of median

    Last year's season caught a lot of us by surprise, with my predicted named storm count turning out to be accurate but having a record number of hurricanes, second-highest number of major hurricanes, and having the highest ACE totals in more than 20 years. This year's season is also very likely to be above average due to a strong El Nino this season. 


    • 22-26 named storms
    • 11-15 typhoons
    • 3-7 …



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  • Ryan1000

    Here are my official predictions for worldwide activity in 2014:


    • 7-12 named storms
    • 4-6 hurricanes
    • 2-3 major hurricanes
    • ACE index 75-95% of median

    An El Nino is almost inevitable by now, and SST's in the Pacific are near their warmest on record, even more than the great El Nino of 1997-98. Because of this, the Atlantic will likely be below average in activity in 2014.


    • 16-21 named storms
    • 8-12 hurricanes
    • 4-6 major hurricanes
    • ACE index 105-135% of median

    El Nino is rapidly starting to come in, so the EPac will likely be above normal in activity this year.


    • 24-29 named storms
    • 12-15 typhoons
    • 6-8 cat 3 or stronger typhoons
    • 2-4 category 5 super typhoons
    • ACE index 110-140% of median

    The WPac will likely be above normal, with a possibly very active late-season due t…




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  • Ryan1000

    Now that the year of 2012 is closing up, I've made my newest blog post for what I think the 2013 worldwide tropical cyclone season will be like. Here are my calls:


    • 12-17 named storms
    • 6-9 hurricanes
    • 3-5 major hurricanes
    • ACE index 125-145% of median

    • 14-18 named storms
    • 6-9 hurricanes
    • 3-5 major hurricanes
    • ACE index 100-120% of median

    • 21-26 named storms
    • 11-16 typhoons
    • 6-9 major typhoons
    • 1-3 category 5 typhoons
    • ACE index 115-140% of median

    • 3-5 named storms
    • 1-2 cyclones
    • 0 or 1 major cyclones

    • 19-24 named storms
    • 11-15 cyclones
    • 6-9 major cyclones
    • 0 or 1 category 5 cyclones

    These are my worldwide calls on 2013. I expect a neutral season, maybe even La Nina, but El Nino probrably won't happen until the end of the year, or until 2014. Something like 2008 or 2004 worldwide …






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  • Ryan1000

    Hurricane wiki adoption

    January 13, 2012 by Ryan1000

    There has been a rescent debate here on hurricane wiki about whether or not there should be a co-admin on this Wiki to help run it. For the majority of the year, hurricane wiki seems to run itself, but we need a more active moderator here, since SkyFury, the current admin, is mostly active from August to October, and hurricane wiki sees activity almost all year. It has been nearly two months since he last edited, but if anyone aside from Eric wishes to help adopt this wiki, leave your reasons for doing so in the comments below. Hopefully we will reach a consensus in the next week or two.

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  • Ryan1000

    • 11-17 named storms.
    • 6-9 hurricanes.
    • 2-5 major hurricanes.
    • ACE 120-140% of median.

    I would expect to see an above normal season in 2012, but I still don't want to predict as many named storms as we have had in the past two years. I think it will be more or less a 2008-like season in terms of activity, as it has been for almost every non-ENSO year since 1995. But overall I expect somewhat neutral patterns in the entire season.


    • 13-19 named storms.
    • 6-10 hurricanes.
    • 3-6 major hurricanes.
    • ACE 105-130% of median.

    I do not expect the 2012 Pacific hurricane season to have as many hurricanes and major hurricanes as last year, but I do expect near-normal to above normal activity in EPac for 2012.


    • 22-27 named storms.
    • 11-15 typhoons.
    • 5-9 major typhoons.
    • ACE 105-135…



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