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Everyone, this is my first blog post, and comments are obviously appreciated.

Ex-Tropical Depression Five (AL05)

TD 5 is basically gone now as it is inland north of New Orleans. I expect this storm to continue inland and eventually head eastward and I think there is a 10% chance that it may exit to the Atlantic Ocean as it heads eastward. This will probably be my last discussion of this disturbance

Tropical Wave 30L (PGI30L)

Now, 30L is the "big one" and I do expect this wave to be the second Cape Verde storm after Colin. Models have been developing this storm, and the most recent GFS, ECMWF and NOGAPS (I think that was the model) have this storm having pressures which normaly indicate Tropical Storm Strength, with a model (I forgot its name) bringing this storm down to 979 hPa, or a strong Category 1/weak Category 2 hurricane. This disturbance will be monitored for additional development, and slow development is expected. The chances for a Tropical Depression out of this storm for me is 40% , the chances for a tropical storm is at 25%, the chances for a hurricane is at 15%, and the major hurricane chances are above-average.

Caribbean Disturbance (Area of Interest #1)

This disturbance recently had a surge of convection, and the current chances for a tropical cyclone according to the NHC is 10%. However, I don't really expect any development until it's near or inside the Gulf, and the chances of a TD for me is 5%.


Except for an exceptional tropical wave in Africa, I do not expect any other tropical activity.

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