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Recently, the GFS and ECMWF have been predicting tropical development just south of SW Mexico. While I'm not a big fan of ultra-long range forecasting (I have problems even at 7 days), the fact that both GFS and ECMWF are developing this system gives me the idea this has a fair likelihood of occurring. It seems like this system will be steered to the coast of Southern Mexico to a potential landfall, right around the isthmus or could be dragged along the coast to a landfall (according to GFS). SST's are fairly favorable for development. It is also interesting to point out the fact that the MJO is predicted to return right around the timeframe for this system. Later on, we must see what effect this system has on land, if any, if it can cross over to the Atlantic (which is... at its landfall point, not that far fetched), and what effect does this general pattern have on both the Atlantic and East Pacific moving forward later this month. This is an interesting development in an already exceptional season thus far.


Darren23CWC 15:43, June 7, 2012 (UTC)

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