Recently, the GFS and ECMWF have been predicting tropical development just south of SW Mexico. While I'm not a big fan of ultra-long range forecasting (I have problems even at 7 days), the fact that both GFS and ECMWF are developing this system gives me the idea this has a fair likelihood of occurring. It seems like this system will be steered to the coast of Southern Mexico to a potential landfall, right around the isthmus or could be dragged along the coast to a landfall (according to GFS). SST's are fairly favorable for development. It is also interesting to point out the fact that the MJO is predicted to return right around the timeframe for this system. Later on, we must see what effect this system has on land, if any, if it can cross…Read more >
My August forecast is the long-form forecast I have formulated over the past few years in written form. This forecast has not been published on Hurricane Wikia. This forecast uses proven factors in determining the numbers for the current hurricane seasons.
As of publishing date, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been in the neutral territory.
While seven tropical storms by August 16 is one month ahead of average, no hurricanes forming as of this date is behind climatology. It is also very rare that the first seven storms never reached hurricane status. ACE is average at 95% of climatology. This current activity is reflected in the Atlantic forecast by increasing the amount of expected tropical storms, but this also slightly reduced t…
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Everyone, this is my first blog post, and comments are obviously appreciated.
TD 5 is basically gone now as it is inland north of New Orleans. I expect this storm to continue inland and eventually head eastward and I think there is a 10% chance that it may exit to the Atlantic Ocean as it heads eastward. This will probably be my last discussion of this disturbance
Now, 30L is the "big one" and I do expect this wave to be the second Cape Verde storm after Colin. Models have been developing this storm, and the most recent GFS, ECMWF and NOGAPS (I think that was the model) have this storm having pressures which normaly indicate Tropical Storm Strength, with a model (I forgot its name) bringing this storm down to 979 hPa, or a strong Category 1/…
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