Invest 95L 25 Aug 2013 1645z

Surface observations earlier today were already indicative of a developing tropical cyclone.

As Atlantic wishcasters and regular tropical cyclone enthusiasts alike were ready to call this season off due to a string of weak storms, despite still spitting climatologically early systems, Invest 95L, invested yesterday as it was over the Yucatan Peninsula, has organized in the Bay of Campeche into Tropical Depression Six, the sixth tropical cyclone of the season. The cyclogenesis of the tropical depression coincided with a strong Kelvin wave that propogated eastward and also assisted in the cyclogenesis of Ivo and Invest 95E.

Though anything is possible, due to its proximity to land, intensification from Tropcial Depression Six should be marked, but marginal nonetheless. With a few outliers, the models for this system have also agreed upon a marginal intensification scenario.  I think there is a 70% chance that Tropical Depression Six will peak in strength with winds of 40–50 mph. Expect a landfall at this intensity roughly 20–30 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico.

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