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Tropical Storm Emily Aug 2 2011 0115z

Current image of Emily

Remember in 2010 where the Weather Channel went through all the scenerios for Hurricane Earl and the East Coast? Well here we are again for scenerios with Emily.
  1. Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico Scenario: This track takes Emily pummeling through Hispaniola, and then taking a west turn through the straits of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico and then a Mexican or Texan strike. This is the most severe and costly situation. The GOM is hurricane haven with perfect conditions. If this track is taken, I predict Emily will hit category 3/4.
  2. NHC Track Scenario: If this happens, Emily will behave and do what the NHC says. That is, Emily will remain a tropical storm and continue west northwest, impacting Hispaniola first, weakening, and then restrengthening into a category 1 hurricane before a Palm Beach, Florida landfall.
  3. East Coast Recurve Scenario: Currently, most of the models agree with this scenario. This takes Emily into Hispaniola, heading north northwest through the Bahamas, before recurving out to sea.
  4. The Perfect Storm: GFDL is the lone ranger in this one. This scenario is unlikely, but it takes Emily into Jamaica, straight through the Caribbean and into the GOM. Who knows what happens then.
  5. Dissipation Scenerio: The guys on the forum are looking for this scenario. In this one, Emily will simply dissapate over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola.

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