Welcome to CobraStrike's predictions for storms in the Atlantic and East Pacific tropical basins.


Tropical Depression Alberto

Alberto is now a tropical depression! After falling apart and maintaining 40-45 mph (35-40kt) winds for a while, the latest ATCF report reveals that Alberto has finally weakened. Expect it to continue drifting and speed to the northeast. It will probably dissipate tomorrow morning if not later that day.

AOI Western Caribbean

I have been looking at this AOI in the Cayman Islands region for a while in its development today. Conditions are not conductive for tropical development in the area for the large mass of thundershowers. Currently it is in an area of 30-40kt wind shear. It probably won't form into anything but you never know. I'll just give it a Near 0% chance of forming into something like a monsoon depression, like Nicole did in 2010.

East Pacific

Tropical Depression 2E

The second May storm this year, 2E is the best looking storm this year from both Atlantic and East Pacific basins. The storm is wrapping around and is developing spiral bands. It is expected to strengthen and hit Mexico in a few days as a strong category 1 or low-end category 2. I think landfall should be around 95 mph (85kt).

AOI: Following 2E

The AOI is starting to get really close to 2E. For me the chances of forming into a TD are slimming out, but I would put it at 10% for now.

--CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:54, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

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