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Hello!


I once again have a blog post! This time, I'm doing forecasts. In this blog, I will make monthly forecasts from August 2011 to December 2012.

Predictions

Atlantic:

2011

August 2011: 4 tropical cyclones, 4 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

September 2011: 5 tropical cyclones, 5 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors, 1 Category 5

October 2011: 3 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

November 2011: 1 tropical cyclone, 1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

2011 Total: 18-17-8-3-1 (Rina)

NOTE: This forecast has been updated. See below for more info.


2012

January - April: No way, Jose!

May: 1 tropical cyclone, 0 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

June: 2 tropical cyclones, 0 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

July: 2 tropical cyclones, 1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

August: 4 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

September: 4 tropical cyclones, 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major, 1 Category 5

October: 3 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 1 major, 0 Category 5's

November: 2 tropical cyclones, 1 tropical storm, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

December: 1 tropical cyclone, 1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

2012 Total: 19-10-5-2-1 (Isaac)

E. Pacific:

2011

August: 3 tropical cyclones, 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major, 0 Category 5's

September: 4 tropical cyclones, 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 2 majors, 1 Category 5

October: 2 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

November: 1 tropical cyclone, 1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

December: No activity predicted

2011 Total: 15-14-10-6-1 (Max + one Atlantic surprise)

2012

January - April: No way!

May: 1 tropical cyclone, 1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

June: 3 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

July: 3 tropical cyclones, 3 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 1 major, 0 Category 5's

August: 5 tropical cyclones, 4 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major, 0 Category 5's

September: 4 tropical cyclones, 4 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

October: 3 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

November: 1 tropical cyclone, 0 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

December: No activity

2012 Total: 20-16-7-2-0 (Paul)

SPECIAL UPDATE

After considering the extreme activity of 2011 AHS, I have made the decision to revise my monthly predictions for the 2011 AHS.

These are the new monthly predictions:

August: 6 tropical cyclones, 5 tropical storms, 2 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

September: 8 tropical cyclones, 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors, 1 Category 5

October: 5 tropical cyclones, 4 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

November: 2 tropical cyclones, 2 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

December: 1 tropical cyclone, 1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors, 0 Category 5's

REVISED 2011 Total: 26-23-6-2-1 (Beta)

Remark #1: If this forecast verifies, 2011 would be the second most active season ever in terms of named storms, behind only 2005.

Remark #2: The level of activity I'm predicting is the highest level of activity I've ever made.


Thanks for reading! I hope you enjoyed!

Hurricane Andrew (444)

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