With the year 2013 rapidly dawning on us, it is now an appropriate time for me to post my predictions for next year's Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. Below, you will be able to read my predictions and explanations for each.
For the North Atlantic Ocean, I think we will see:
- 24 tropical depressions,
- 21 tropical storms,
- 13 hurricanes,
- six major hurricanes,
- 4,653 deaths,
- a damage bill of $76 billion (2013 USD),
- and an accumulated cyclone energy of around 230.
Because TSR's forecasts state a possibility of a weak ENSO event in the peak of the 2013 season, I think the ENSO will have enough effect to prevent a re-2005 from occuring, but probably a re-1933 or re-1995 will happen instead. Sea surface temperatures will be warm enough to allow many tropical storms and long-lived hurricanes to form. In addition, the Bermuda High will likely be positioned to allow destructive storms to threaten the United States, the Carribean Islands, and Latin America, causing a great deal of destruction and deaths. Be prepared for YET ANOTHER SEASON WITH 19 STORMS!
For the Eastern Pacific Ocean, I think we will see:
- 23 tropical depressions (20 East Pacific, 3 Central Pacific),
- 23 tropical storms (20 East Pacific, 3 Central Pacific),
- six hurricanes,
- five major hurricanes,
- 450 deaths,
- a damage bill of $1.1 billion (2013 USD),
- and an accumulated cyclone energy of 121.
Despite the fact we are likely to see another moderate La Nina in 2013, the Pacific season should still see a near-record amount of storms. However, cool ocean temperatures will likely reduce the amount of hurricanes to a below average number, while the number of tropical storms and major hurricanes are above average. Beware a 2010-type season for the East Pacific impactwise!
And there you go. My forecasts for next year.