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This is the forum page for the 2018 Pacific typhoon season.

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Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:January-June, July
Storm Event Archives:Maria

Other Basin Talkpages (2018): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


August

Might as well start this section before the (busiest?) month begins. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:52, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

18W.YAGI

93W.INVEST

And Tropical Tidbits spots another invest, also in the open Pacific. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:52, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

Code yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:09, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
Still code yellow, but weather models are positive about this invest. This may follow Wukong's footsteps. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:24, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression

Now high chance and a TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:31, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Kinda late but JMA has already upgraded this to a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:52, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 18W (Karding)

JTWC and PAGASA follow suit. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:22, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC forecast maintains this as a TD for a while before it finally intensifies to a TS while crossing the Ryukyu Islands. Could hit China in the long run. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:11, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Yagi (Karding)

And JMA upgrades 18W to a TS. Remains a TD on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:42, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Now a TS on JTWC, and not expected to become stronger than 40 knots/45 mph on JTWC or 45 knots/50 mph on JMA. Impacts to the Ryukyu Islands and China are unlikely to be more than minor. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:46, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
While not having a direct effect, this storm enhanced the southwest monsoon, causing floods which have been compared to that of Ketsana/Ondoy 9 years ago. Two fatalities have been confirmed in the Philippines so far. Meanwhile, Yagi has made landfall in China and is currently inland. JTWC has already issued its final warning; JMA still has this storm as a TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:53, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Yagi

Down and out. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:29, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

17W.SHANSHAN

94W.INVEST

New month, new invest. WPac is as active as expected. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

Also code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 20:33, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
Medium chance of formation now. Will likely become a name-stealer. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:15, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression

Upgraded by JMA to a TD, and this system now appears on their weather map too. Code red on JTWC, TCFA issued. This may not be a name-stealer after all, as this may affect land in the long run. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Shanshan

Wukong 2.0. Still a TD on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:18, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, it'll probably be a typhoon, but it'll likely stay offshore just east of Japan. Ryan1000 17:25, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Shanshan

This is intensifying quickly. 55-knot winds from both JMA and JTWC, pressure at 985 hPa. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:34, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Shanshan

JMA already has this up as a 65 knot/75 mph (975 mbar) typhoon. This should get relatively strong, but not too strong as it makes an apparently straight-line path towards Japan. Forecast to peak at 90 knots/105 mph according to the JTWC and 80 knots/90 mph by JMA. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:51, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Oh no, both the JTWC & JMA tracks take Shanshan directly towards the Kantō region (Tokyo area). I hope this will become like Jongdari; I hope it also changes its track and weaken before it hits the country. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:31, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Shanshan isn't moving northwest very fast and it's expected to hit the eastern tip of Japan as a weakening typhoon or (severe) tropical storm, but the way Shanshan is approaching Japan would actually be a better-case scenario than if he were to strike southwest of the city, because the counter-clockwise rotation of the storm would, if he does pass east of Tokyo, push seawater southwards and out of Tokyo Bay, like how Irma last year in the Atlantic pushed water out of Tampa Bay by hitting south of the city, though Irma was still destructive. Ryan1000 16:20, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

I REALLY don't like the latest GFS run for this... Hopefully that's a more alarmist approach.Β Send Help Please (talk) 09:26, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

I'd take the GFS with a grain of salt on some of their WPac intensity forecasts...they forecasted Typhoon Noru of last year to hit Tokyo as an 892 mbar category 5 monster at one point, and we all know where that storm struck. That model may be somewhat better closer to home, though I'd be more inclined to believe the JTWC forecast in this case. The Euro's not much more optimistic. In any instance though, I mentioned during Lan last year that Tokyo is a very well-prepared city for the effects of typhoons, with a very large floodwall on the southern portion of Tokyo bay to keep out storm surges and steel-frame high-rises that can withstand 150+ mph winds. Unless Tokyo gets directly hit by a category 5 super typhoon like Vera of 1959, they'll probably get off alright from storms like Shanshan, even better if this storm pushes water southwards and out of the bay if it passes to the east of the city instead of west, as currently indicated by the JTWC. Ryan1000 05:02, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
JTWC forecast now says Shanshan will curve to the east past Tokyo, but they will still feel impacts nonetheless. They also believe that Shanshan is now near its peak intensity and will steadily weaken from here on out. However, JMA still shows a near-direct hit and slight intensification (by 5 knots) in the forecast. I highly doubt this will be a devastating disaster for Tokyo, especially considering how well-equipped it is. Hopefully they make it through ok. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:29, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Now 85 kt (100 mph) by JTWC and 70 kt (80 mph) by JMA. Going to hit Japan tomorrow and then meet its demise after curving out to sea. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:08, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Shanshan (2nd time)

Down to a TS, but JTWC has already issued its final warning. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:33, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Shanshan

And so has the JMA. Thankfully nothing much happened to Japan except for some injuries. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:11, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

95W.INVEST

First of the two new WPac invests, according to Tropical Tidbits (again). This is the one near the International Date Line. Low chance of development for now, but models say that this may become a fishspinner/name-stealer in a few days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:14, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

No longer on JTWC, still on Tropical Tidbits though. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:32, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
Dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:31, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

20W.BEBINCA

96W.INVEST

Second of the two new WPac invests. For now, this may most likely remain as an invest/low pressure area, but forecast models say otherwise. This may intensify to a storm, and even to a typhoon as onw of the models expect this to hit the Philippines and Japan (or even China) in the long run. Other models tell a more likely scenario: that this will move westward/northwestward towards Vietnam and southern China. This one is at the west of the Philippine archipelago, and is also code yellow right now like 93W and 95W. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:14, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Those models seem a bit scary, I'd say. Hopefully it stays sufficiently weak if it's going to affect all that land. To be honest, I don't expect much more than a TS or STS from this. Still code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:35, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
Fortunately those models did not come true. It is now heading towards Vietnam/southern China. It is still code yellow on JTWC as of this writing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Upgraded to code red. TCFA issued by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:34, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression

Still an invest with a high chance of formation on JTWC even if JMA has already considered this as a TD. However, I don't see this becoming stronger than 40 mph, let alone 35 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:50, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

Down to medium chance on JTWC. This won't be 20W, I think. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:16, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
And considering that it's moving inland, I highly doubt any further development from this system unless it moves back over water like Son-Tinh did. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:43, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

Back to code red, TCFA issued. This invest is playing with all of us. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:55, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 20W

Also appears on JMA's typhoon page as a TD. Forecast to reach 35 kts (1-minute sustained). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bebinca

Oops, another name-stealer. Still considered by JTWC as a TD though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:49, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Not expected to intensify much. Waste of a name... ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:03, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
Got a bit stronger than I expected, now 50 knots/60 mph according to the JTWC and 45 knots/50 mph according to the JMA. Some more slight intensification is possible before it strikes northern Vietnam. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:57, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Bebinca

Peaked at this intensity earlier. I guess it wasn't the name stealer I thought of! ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:22, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bebinca (2nd time)

Back down to 35 knots/40 mph according to the JMA as it made landfall in northern Vietnam. JTWC has issued their final advisory. So far, according to Wikipedia, minimal damage has been reported. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:22, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Bebinca

Dead according to JTWC & JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

19W.LEEPI

97W.INVEST

New invest east of Guam, according to Tropical Tidbits. A particular weather model take this to China, but I take that with a grain of salt. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Now on JTWC with low chance of forming. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 22:36, August 09, 2018 (UTC)
Medium chance of formation as of the latest update from JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:50, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 19W

Suprisingly, its 97W that became Tropical Depression 19W, not 96W.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   01:49, August 11, 2018 (UTC) 

Tropical Storm 19W

100 kph 1-minute sustained winds, yet 55 kph 10-minute sustained winds. Wow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Leepi

JMA has named this and it's now 40 knots/45 mph according to them. JTWC has it as 55 knots/65 mph, which is quite a difference but not as much as right before it was named. Like Yagi, it's not expected to get much stronger. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:49, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon status unofficial as Leepi is only recognized as a typhoon by JTWC. It is still a TS according to JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:20, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Leepi

Down to a TS on JTWC, upgraded to a severe tropical storm on JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Some more slight intensification is possible, although it shouldn't become strong enough for it to become a JMA typhoon. The agencies have really differed about this storm's intensity. Right now it's still a 10 knot difference between the JMA and JTWC. It's also forecast to hit southern Japan and south of Shanghai as a weaker system. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:08, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
I won't say that I don't give any credit to the JTWC, but only make new intensity headers when the JMA upgrades or downgrades the storm, because the JTWC's intensity scale is unofficial for the WPac basin. Anyways, this may just clip or slightly miss southern Japan before turning towards Shanghai. Ryan1000 12:42, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Leepi

This thing is now dying. Made landfall in Japan & South Korea, but no reports of damage (yet). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:06, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Last advisory issued on JTWC, but still up on JMA. I think Rumbia got dominant and killed Leepi due to their proximity. It has also apparently made landfall in Korea, so land interaction must have also played a factor. Hoping damage/death tolls don't rise in the next few days. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:02, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Leepi

Completely dead now. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:18, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

21W.RUMBIA

98W.INVEST

First of the two new invests this week; only visible in Tropical Tidbits page. Located at the east of Taiwan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:09, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
Upgraded to medium chance. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:30, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 21W

Seems to be following Yagi's track. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:15, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rumbia

Oh, it's already a TS according to JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:18, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Not expected to become anything more than a failure, forecast peak is 40 knots/45 mph by JTWC (JMA doesn't even strengthen it past 35 knots/40 mph). An absolute waste of a name. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:05, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
Nvm about my earlier pessimistic comment, it actually reached 45 knots/50 mph before making a landfall near Shanghai (3rd of the year!). JTWC has issued their final advisory, and JMA still has it at 45 knots (should be downgraded very soon). ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:26, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC has issued its final warning, but Rumbia remains a TS according to JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Rumbia

Dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:40, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

22W.SOULIK

99W.INVEST

Second of the two new invests this week; also only present in Tropical Tidbits' page. This one is in the open Pacific. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Currently code orange just like 98W. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:30, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

TCFA issued. Code red now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:16, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 22W

WPac is on fire. Another TD forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Currently veering towards Japan. The end of JTWC's forecast says that 22W will reach 95 knots while getting closer to Honshu, but given JTWC's record this year (Shanshan, Jongdari), I am somehow taking that with a grain of salt. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:14, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Soulik

Now named by JMA. And expected to intensify to a strong typhoon and threaten southern Japan in the long run. It's one to really watch out for. With this, Bebinca, Rumbia, Leepi, and Hector all active at the same time (last two could already be remnants though), the WPac is officially on FIRE! ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:08, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Soulik

Now a STS according to JMA, and JTWC takes it up to 115 knots! Already a typhoon by JTWC. Southern Japan really needs to prepare... getting pretty scary right now. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:29, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Soulik

And it is official: Soulik is now a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

The GFS makes this a 165 MPH, 903 MBAR typhoon right next to Japan. Wow. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 00:34, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
Recently, those weather models tend to exaggerate the intensity of cyclones. I am taking that with a grain of salt right now, especially with what happened to Jongdari, Shanshan and Leepi earlier in this season. However, even if Soulik does not reach C5 – let alone C4 – this is still a storm to watch out for; unlike the three storms that I have mentioned, Soulik seems to continue strengthening until it reaches the Ryukyus/Kyushu. It is good that Japan is well-prepared for typhoons, but the flood threat from the precipitation (from typhoons like this one) is still there. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:30, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
Now Soulik is the equivalent of a SSHWS major hurricane (C3) according to JTWC, which has Soulik at 105 knots/120 mph. According to JMA, it's 80 knots/90 mph. I'd also take with a grain of salt those models because of some storms earlier this year (mentioned by Anon 2.0). The forecast track for Soulik has shifted a bit south, and now it appears that the northern Ryukyu Islands will get the brunt of the storm. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:28, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

90W.INVEST

Only visible in Tropical Tidbits as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Still excluded from JTWC's main page. This is at the east of the Philippines and west of 22W. 91W meanwhile is at the east of 22W. 22W and 90W are both expected to move towards Japan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:09, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
Long gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

23W.CIMARON

91W.INVEST

Code yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Seems that the El NiΓ±o is already kicking. Upgraded to code orange (medium chance) by JTWC. This will likely remain at sea; we may get Cimaron from this, if 22W becomes Soulik (which is almost imminent). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:11, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
We're currently seeing some really insane activity here. But then again, the WPac is the most active basin on earth. This is likely to become Cimaron. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:11, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
lemme have cimaron flavoured bran flakes for brekkie if this becomes a super typhoon --Β‘OIα—‘ 'ƎW Sβˆ€M βŠ₯I (talk) 12:19, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression

JMA has classified it as a TD. TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:32, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

It's already designated by Tropical Tidbits as 23W, yet according to JTWC, only a TCFA has been issued. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 23W

This is now officially the 23rd tropical depression of the season by the JTWC, who forecast it to become at least a 120 mph typhoon. The GFS makes this 939 mbars by the 25th, and the HWRF makes this 932 mbars by the 22nd. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 00:27, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 23W

Now a tropical storm per JTWC. JMA yet to follow suit. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:24, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cimaron

JMA has followed suit. Will intensify gradually and hit Japan in the long run. ~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:31, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions

JMA:

  • Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
  • Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
  • Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
  • Ewiniar - 32% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
  • Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
  • Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
  • Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
  • Maria - 28% - Current damage projections are only at 491 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed. I was fearing far worse from Maria since she was stronger and bigger than Fitow 5 years ago and it hit the same area, but I guess not, thankfully.
  • Son-Tinh - 22% - It's unfortunate that this storm killed more than 60 people with over 275 million dollars in damage, but that may not be severe enough for retirement; they've snubbed some worse storms in the past that hit the area. Still, it gets credit.
  • Ampil - 12% - Caused around 175 million dollars in flood damage to China with 1 death, but Ampil doesn't appear to have been too severe for them; it was not as severe as Ewiniar, let alone Maria, earlier in the season.
  • Wukong - 0% - Never affected any land.
  • Jongdari - 8% - Jongdari was one of only a small handful of typhoons to attack Japan from southeast to northwest (along with Lionrock 2 years ago, Ben in 1983 and Viola in 1966), but it was only an 80 mph storm when it did so, and it doesn't seem to have been too serious for them, unlike the flooding they saw earlier in the month.
  • Shanshan - 4% - Passed just east of Tokyo, but with that said, its downward wind flow pushed water out of the bay, minimizing flooding and there likely wasn't much wind damage either.
  • Yagi - 3% - Caused some damage and 2 deaths, but it probably won't go.
  • Leepi - 4% - Caused some minor flooding in Japan, but likely won't be retired.
  • Bebinca - 5% - Caused some flooding in southern China from its stalled motion, but likely won't be retired.
  • Rumbia - 5% - Probably wasn't too bad for Shanghai.
  • Soulik - ?? - Still active, but forecast to hit Japan and/or Korea.
  • Cimaron - ?? - Still active, but likely to be headed towards Japan down the road. WPac's doing fairly good so far: 19 named storms so far and two weeks until September? This could be one of the most active WPac seasons on record if this rate of activity continues, especially since September and October are usually more active than August.

PAGASA:

  • Josie - 100% - Current damages are projected at 3.82 billion PHP, which meets their retirement criteria. So, bye.
  • All other names - 0% - Didn't met the PAGASA retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP damage and/or 300 deaths.

And that's my calls so far. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

Roy25's prediction

Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: TD, STS, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ???


JMA:

  • Bolaven (15%) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
  • Sanba (10%) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
  • Jelawat (0%) - Caused no damage and deaths
  • Ewiniar (8%) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
  • Maliksi (0.001%) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
  • Gaemi (0.001%) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
  • Prapiroon (9%) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
  • Maria (32%) - As of now had caused $491 million in damage, and only 1 death so far (feared there would be more, but fortunately that didn't happen as of now).
  • Son-Tinh (10%) - While it regenerated, it has caused 10 deaths and $17.5 million, but this won't go
  • Ampil (13%) - Had caused 1 death but $173 million in damage, but I have doubt this will go
  • Wukong (0%) - Didn't do much, pretty much a fish
  • Jongdari (???) - Currently active

PAGASA

  • All names used this season (0%) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:

  1. Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
  2. The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
  3. Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

--Roy25 18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 WestPac retirement projections

JMA names

  • Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
  • Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
  • Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
  • Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
  • Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
  • Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... uh, Gaemi will stay.
  • Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
  • Maria - 35% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage, but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm.

PAGASA names

  • Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
  • Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
  • Ester to Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:08, July 15, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades

See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: Based off of JTWC intensities. TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, 200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%, 100% or TBA

Grading colors: EO+, EO, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA


International:

To reduce clutter and save space, only tropical systems that were declared at least a TD by both the JMA and JTWC are included.

  • Bolaven:
    • Retirement: 6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
    • Grading: F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.
  • Sanba:
    • Retirement: 8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
    • Grading: F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.
  • Jelawat:
    • Retirement: 0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
    • Grading: A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.
  • 04W:
    • Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
    • Grading: F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.
  • Ewiniar:
    • Retirement: 34% - $573 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 15 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
    • Grading: F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.
  • Maliksi:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
    • Grading: D - Failed to make typhoon status, despite being so close.
  • Gaemi:
    • Retirement: 0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
    • Grading: E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.
  • Prapiroon:
    • Retirement: 5% - 4 deaths and at least $10 million in damage. Also contributed to the devastating Japan floods.
    • Grading: C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.
  • Maria:
    • Retirement: 28% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths appear to be less than initially feared. Devastation was even less than Ewiniar unless more reports come in, and deaths were much less than Ewiniar.
    • Grading: A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.
  • Son-Tinh:
    • Retirement: 15% - Very deadly, with 66 deaths and $235 million in damage. Since it mainly affected Vietnam, which has never retired a storm name before, I highly doubt this will be retired.
    • Grading: D- - Credit for unexpectedly moving back out to sea and regenerating. However, the deaths and devastation prevent the grade from being any higher than this.
  • Ampil:
    • Retirement: 14% - China has seen much, much worse.
    • Grading: D- - Some credit for reaching STS status according to the JMA.
  • 13W:
    • Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
    • Grading: F- - At least it didn't steal a JMA name.
  • Wukong:
    • Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
    • Grading: D+ - Became a borderline typhoon, and only JMA failed to recognize it as a typhoon.
  • Jongdari:
    • Retirement: 12% - $100 million still isn't enough for retirement.
    • Grading: B+ - Awesome track consisting of loops and a rare approach of Japan from the west. That slightly boosts the grade.
  • 16W:
    • Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired due to lack of name.
    • Grading: F- - Shear took a toll on the poor system. At least it didn't steal a name.
  • Shanshan:
    • Retirement: 1% - Impacts don't appear to be nearly as bad as feared. Nothing reported on Wikipedia as of yet.
    • Grading: B- - Did a satisfactory job intensity-wise.
  • Yagi:
    • Retirement: 0.8% - Minor damage (a little over a million USD) and 2 deaths is not enough for retirement.
    • Grading: F - Weak failure that barely even tried. It did last over a week though.
  • Leepi:
    • Retirement: 1% - Doubt it was too bad. Still nothing reported yet on Wikipedia.
    • Grading: D+ - Unofficially reached typhoon strength.
  • Bebinca:
    • Retirement: 15% - Preliminary percentage, but Wikipedia already reports "major" damage and 7 deaths. The percentage is likely to change in the coming days as more reports come in.
    • Grading: D- - At least it reached STS status and wasn't a total name waste.
  • Rumbia:
    • Retirement: 1% - Like Leepi, nothing reported yet on Wikipedia, but I don't think it was anything retirement-worthy.
    • Grading: E - Although it peaked short of STS intensity, it isn't a complete fail.
  • Soulik:
    • Retirement: N/A - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
    • Grading: TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.
  • Cimaron:
    • Retirement: N/A - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
    • Grading: TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

PAGASA: Retirement percentages only.

  • Josie: 100% - Wikipedia reports β‚±4.66 billion in damage, which meets their retirement criteria.
  • No other names meet PAGASA's retirement requirements of β‚±1 billion in damage and 300 deaths.

Notes: Intensity colors -

  • Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
  • I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
  • I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -

  • "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
  • "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
  • 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
  • New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
  • Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -

  • EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
  • Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
  • Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 01:45, August 19, 2018 (UTC))

Harvey's retirement predictions

Intensity colors: TD, TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.9%, 1-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%

Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA


JMA Names:

  • Bolaven:
    • Retirement: 7% - Only did minor damage. Unlikely to be retired.
    • Grade: F - Weak name stealer that was not even considered a TS by the JTWC. Not any lower because it at least spanned two calendar years.
  • Sanba:
    • Retirement: 12% - Like Bolaven, it's a weak tropical storm that caused minor damage, but a higher death count and a lower cost total. Also unlikely to be retired.
    • Grade: F - It's also a weak name stealer like Bolaven. Not really memorable.
  • Jelawat:
    • Retirement: 0.001% - Aside from the minor impacts to Palau, the Caroline Islands and the Mariana Islands, there was no other impact caused by this storm.
    • Grade: A+++ - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
  • 04W:
    • Retirement: N/A
    • Grade: F - The storm mostly failed. But I do give it credit for not stealing a name.
  • Ewiniar:
    • Retirement: 37% - Currently the most destructive, causing $573 million USD damage and 15 deaths. It does have a chance of getting retired.
    • Grade: A+++ - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
  • Maliksi:
  • Gaemi:
  • Prapiroon:
  • Maria:
  • Son-Tinh:
  • Ampil:

PAGASA Names: No name meets their retirement criteria yet.


Notes:

Harveycane (Talk | Contributions) 06:05, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

SuperMarioBros99thx's update on Son-Tinh

I am sorry if i had to say this which should have been off-topic because i recently noticed that this storm was a monster and not just a simple one so i had to bring this.​​​​​​
Recently in Wikipedia i, as SMB99thx essentially changed Son-Tinh's page into something of more of a disaster than it should be. When i am reanalyzing about this storm, i noticed that Laos dam collapse is highly connected to this storm, not just related into it. There is a fact that Laos dam collapse' deaths are included in the death totals and linked to the article of that dam collapse, i noticed that Laos dam collapse damages are not updated and found more interesting details about the collapse for example are the missing people. As such i've changed the much as i could including linking the storm into another deadly storm (see also section), Severe Tropical Storm Linda. I came into the conclusion that this storm is severely underestimated, thus i had to make a major changes like that. Thus, i had to bring that storm for attention here, first off in Hurricanes Wiki.

I would love to bring it more but i had to share the information in here first. Hopefully you will know how truly disastrous this storm it is. I expect grade changes and some ratings changes but overall i think this storm is unlikely to retire as most have said about it (Indochina has a poor record of retiring these disastrous storms). Anyways, thanks for receiving this news item. Son-Tinh is a Washi's counterpart of Indochina, but unlikely to get retirement anytime soon.Β  Feel free to remove this section if that change were to be not accepted and reverted, but otherwise it's okay.

Thanks,

{{SUBST:User:SuperMarioBros99thx_XD/sig}} 05:26, August 12, 2018 (UTC)Β i had a broken signature for now, signature coming soon