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This is the forum page for the 2018 Pacific typhoon season.

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Monthly Archives:January-June, July, August, September, October-November
Storm Event Archives:Maria

Other Basin Talkpages (2018): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

November

93W.INVEST

Another invest, coded yellow per JTWC.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   04:07, November 29, 2018 (UTC) 

I don't think this will become much out at sea, even the initial ensemble models don't seem to do much with this. It could become Pabuk, but I personally don't see that happening. Ryan1000 22:34, November 29, 2018 (UTC)

December

Just in case something forms in this month. Ryan1000 10:42, December 2, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST

On JTWC coded yellow. There was also a CPAC invest earlier this month that crossed here as well, but that died.  ~ Roy25   Happy Holidays!!! | πŸŽ„   02:50, December 12, 2018 (UTC) 

Farewell

Unless we get a storm forming in December, this year's WPac season is drawing to its end, and it was quite an active season. We had 28 named storms, several strong super typhoons, and a lot of ACE racked up this season. I'm surprised no one on Wikipedia calculated or put up the ACE totals for the 2018 WPac season, but fortunately I managed to calculate them, and unless I'm mistaken, this year had the following ACE totals (note: this is the ACE by the JTWC's 1-minute Saffir-Simpson Scale winds):

2018 WPac ACE (104 kt2)
1 Sanba 1.3475 8 Prapiroon 6.6225 15 Yagi 2.7175 22 Mangkhut 46.52
2 Jelawat 11.1375 9 Maria 35.505 16 Bebinca 3.085 23 Barijat 1.62
3 04W 0.3675 10 Son-Tinh 2.3125 17 Leepi 5.35 24 Trami 35.27
4 Ewiniar 0.6125 11 Ampil 3.4525 18 Rumbia 1.545 25 Kong-rey 24.1975
5 Maliksi 3.3475 12 Wukong 4.1125 19 Soulik 23.59 26 Yutu 46.595
6 07W 0.735 13 Jongdari 8.2225 20 Cimaron 12.655 27 Man-yi 12.5325
7 Gaemi 0.49 14 Shanshan 13.2825 21 Jebi 33.8525 28 Usagi 3.67
Total= 344.7475 (0.8575 from Hector)

A few storms like Toraji weren't included since they weren't TS's by the JTWC, which the above table includes. Also, Hurricane Hector produced a little less than 1 ACE unit during his short lifespan in the WPac basin. In any instance, roughly 345 ACE units is quite a lot, when added with the record-active ACE from this year's EPac season, the North Pacific produced roughly 662 units of ACE in 2018, a fairly high number, though not a record. It's also unfortunate that some of the typhoons this year were bad, including Mangkhut's landfall in the Philippines and China, Jebi's record damage in parts of Japan, and Yutu's record intensity when striking the Mariana Islands. But, it's hard to see a WPac season without a lot of damage, as almost every season produces a cat 5, and at least one makes landfall as a considerable storm somewhere. Thoughts? Ryan1000 22:34, November 29, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions

JMA:

  • Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
  • Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
  • Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
  • Ewiniar - 32% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
  • Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
  • Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
  • Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
  • Maria - 28% - Current damage projections are only at 491 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed. I was fearing far worse from Maria since she was stronger and bigger than Fitow 5 years ago and it hit the same area, but I guess not, thankfully.
  • Son-Tinh - 22% - It's unfortunate that this storm killed more than 60 people with over 275 million dollars in damage, but that may not be severe enough for retirement; they've snubbed some worse storms in the past that hit the area. Still, it gets credit.
  • Ampil - 12% - Caused around 175 million dollars in flood damage to China with 1 death, but Ampil doesn't appear to have been too severe for them; it was not as severe as Ewiniar, let alone Maria, earlier in the season.
  • Wukong - 0% - Never affected any land.
  • Jongdari - 38% - Jongdari was one of only a small handful of typhoons to attack Japan from southeast to northwest (along with Lionrock 2 years ago, Ben in 1983 and Viola in 1966). Damages were recently buffed to almost 1.5 billion, but it was overshadowed by Jebi later on. Still, it gets credit.
  • Shanshan - 4% - Passed just east of Tokyo, but with that said, its downward wind flow pushed water out of the bay, minimizing flooding and there likely wasn't much wind damage either.
  • Yagi - 3% - Caused some damage and 2 deaths, but it probably won't go.
  • Leepi - 4% - Caused some minor flooding in Japan, but likely won't be retired.
  • Bebinca - 5% - Caused some flooding in southern China from its stalled motion, but likely won't be retired.
  • Rumbia - 90% - Woah, never mind my previous post, Rumbia actually turned out to be the costliest storm of the season, with a whopping 5.4 billion dollars in flood damage and more than 50 deaths to boot. I believe this makes Rumbia possibly only third to 2006's Bilis (in today's dollars) and 2013's Fitow as China's costliest tropical cyclone on record, even worse than Mangkhut later this year or 2006's Saomai in damages. Very likely to be retired at this point.
  • Soulik - 15% - 80 million in damage or so probably won't cut it.
  • Cimaron - 10% - Hit Japan as a cat 1, hopefully Cimaron wasn't much worse than Jongdari.
  • Jebi - 85% - Caused at least 3.3 billion dollars in damage and many deaths when it struck the Osaka area of southern Japan, one of the city's worst typhoons on record and Japan's costliest typhoon in many years. Likely to be retired after this year.
  • Mangkhut - 90% - With over 100 people killed and over 3.7 billion dollars in damage, Mangkhut may likely be gone after this year.
  • Barijat - 4% - Wasn't too serious for southern China around Hainan Island.
  • Trami - 8% - 28 million and 4 deaths won't cut it.
  • Kong-rey - 5% - Killed 2 people, but damage likely wasn't too bad
  • Yutu - 75% - Slammed some of the Mariana Islands as their strongest typhoon on record, and hit the Philippines as a weaker, though still considerable, storm. Damages were less severe than the previous storms, but still notable.
  • Toraji - 5% - Killed 16 people but caused only minor damage and likely won't be retired.
  • Man-yi - 0% - Caused no impacts to the Mariana islands despite passing close.
  • Usagi - 3% - Wasn't as bad as Toraji.

PAGASA:

  • Josie - 100% - Current damages are projected at 3.82 billion PHP, which meets their retirement criteria. So, bye.
  • Ompong - 100% - Caused over a billion PHP in damage, like Josie, so this is out too.
  • Rosita - 100% - Caused almost 3 billion PHP in damage, so this also meets the criteria.
  • All other names - 0% - Didn't met the PAGASA retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP damage and/or 300 deaths.

And that's my calls so far. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

Roy25's prediction

Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: TD, STS, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ???


JMA:

  • Bolaven (15%) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
  • Sanba (10%) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
  • Jelawat (0%) - Caused no damage and deaths
  • Ewiniar (8%) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
  • Maliksi (0.001%) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
  • Gaemi (0.001%) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
  • Prapiroon (9%) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
  • Maria (37%) - As of now had caused $491 million in damage, and only 1 death so far (feared there would be more, but fortunately that didn't happen as of now).
  • Son-Tinh (10%) - While it regenerated, it has caused 10 deaths and $17.5 million, but this won't go
  • Ampil (13%) - Had caused 1 death but $173 million in damage, but I have doubt this will go
  • Wukong (0%) - Didn't do much, pretty much a fish
  • Jongdari (8%) - Only caused $54 million in damage, but this won't be retired.
  • Shanshan (0.001%) - Hadn't caused any damage or deaths, but affected land, but this name is staying
  • Yagi (9%) - Damage similar to Jongdari, but 4 deaths, but even then, this is staying
  • Bebinca (17%) - Did a lot of damage at $266 million as well as 10 deaths, but retirement is pretty unlikely
  • Leepi (0.001%) - Didn't do anything other than affecting land
  • Rumbia (47%) - Woah, this TS did $1.3 billion in damage as well as 22 deaths! Now the costliest storm of the season thus far
  • Soulik (17%) - Caused $80.5 million in damage, but this is staying
  • Cimaron (1%) - Didn't do too much other than affecting land
  • JEBI (65%) - This was a damaging storm for Japan, and one of the strongest to hit Japan. While it is one of the damaging and strongest storm for Japan, I'm going to give this a little higher than a 50% seeming as Japan uses numbers for typhoons and not names, thus not retiring names.
  • MANGKHUT (95%) - Oh no, this was a particualry deadly and damaging storm for the Phillippines and Hong Kong. Surely this name as well as its PAGASA name (Ompong) will get the boot coming winter/spring.
  • Barijat (0.001%) - Affected Hong Kong and Vietnam but didn't do anything else really.
  • Trami (5%) - Another C5 which unlike the other 3 C5s earlier this season, didn't do much other than affecting land.
  • Kong-rey (3%) - Yet ANOTHER C5 that like Trami, didn't do anything other than affecting land.
  • YUTU (87%) - ANOTHER C5 (can we take a break from the C5 train pls? lol) that caused widespread impacts on the Mariana Islands and the Philippines. This will most likely take the boot.

PAGASA

  • JOSIE (100%) - Caused β‚±4.66 billion in damage, which exeeds the β‚±1 billion requirement to retire a PAGASA name.
  • OMPONG (100%) - PAGASA name for Mangkhut, caused β‚±33.9 billion in damage in the Phillippines and a total of over 134 deaths. The damage alone meets the PAGASA criteria of getting the boot.
  • ROSITA (100%) - PAGASA name for Yutu, caused β‚±2.9 billion in damage, more than the β‚±1 billion criteria needed for retirement.
  • Rest of the names used this season (0%) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:

  1. Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
  2. The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
  3. Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

--Roy25 18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC) 19:07, November 11, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 WestPac retirement projections

JMA names

  • Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
  • Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
  • Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
  • Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
  • Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
  • Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... but still, Gaemi will stay.
  • Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
  • Maria - 25% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage ($491 million), but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm, especially that they themselves actually submitted this name.
  • Son-Tinh - 30% - Such an erratic and deadly storm, despite remaining relatively weak. The percentage could have been higher had it not affect Vietnam, a country notable for its lax retirement policy, not to mention that it is the same country that contributed the name.
  • Ampil - 10% - Nah, I don't see this going, despite causing some indirect troubles in the Philippines.
  • Wukong - 0% - Fishspinner.
  • Jongdari - 10% - Japan got lucky from this one. Damage is lower than feared, and no fatalities occurred.
  • Shanshan - 10% - Almost same with Jongdari. Shanshan may have threatened the Tokyo area, but impacts remained minimal.
  • Yagi - 15% - Had impacts in China (directly) and the Philippines (indirectly), but not enough to warrant retirement.
  • Leepi - 5% - Made landfall in Japan, but little to no damage has been reported.
  • Bebinca - 20% - Son-Tinh lite. Less deaths (only 3), but costlier than Son-Tinh as Bebinca also affected China. The damage cost isn't that high though.
  • Rumbia - 50% - Literal 50/50. Partly because of the relatively low death toll but high damage, but also because it did not peak past tropical storm status. However, Rumbia is now the costliest of tbe season (so far). But stronger and costlier storms like 2013's Usagi got snubbed. This all depends on China's prerogative
  • Soulik - 15% - Affected China, Japan and the two Koreas, but only did little damage.
  • Cimaron - 10% - Made landfall as a typhoon, but no reports of any casualty/damage.
  • Jebi - 45% - Considered as Japan's strongest since Yancy in 1993 (even if Songda, Ma-on and Tokage in 2004 were much stronger at landfall), Jebi inflicted severe damage in Osaka – Japan's second largest city – and its environs (Kansai region). 17 deaths and at least $2.3 billion worth of damage so far, which means that Jebi could have been an easy retirement candidate. However, Japan has been somewhat lax in retiring names, as evidenced by 2011's Talas and 2017's Lan, which were both as destructive as Jebi but still did not get the boot.
  • Mangkhut - TBD - Still active, but given its impacts in the Philippines alone, I don't think Mangkhut will return when this list gets reused. In Hong Kong, which had its 3rd T10 (Signal Number 10) this decade from this typhoon, had reported some notable damage. Worse, Mangkhut's potential effects to the rest of southern China (especially Guangdong) could make more havoc.
  • Barijat - 1% - Weak storm that affected land but did not cause any significant damage.

PAGASA names

  • Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
  • Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
  • Ester, Florita & Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.
  • Henry & Inday - 20% - Percentage could have been higher had these two storms directly affected the Philippines. However, it is a combination of these two storms and the SW monsoon that did the destruction, and the damage total for that did not even reach a billion pesos for each of these storms.
  • Josie - 45% - While Josie met the PHP 1 billion criteria, that damage cost is only indirectly associated to the storm. It was the southwest monsoon that inflicted most of the damage.
  • Karding - 40% - Caused some disruption to the Philippines by also enhancing the southwest monsoon, but I don't see it getting axed by PAGASA, especially given the fact that despite the massive rainfall recorded, the damage only reached a million pesos. EDIT: Damage totals from the combined effects of Karding and SW Monsoon have reached almost a billion pesos (996 million to be exact).
  • Luis, Maymay & Neneng - 0% - Passers-by that did not do any damage to the Philippines.
  • Ompong - 100% - One province alone already estimated at least PHP 1 billion worth of damage; couldn't see any reason for Ompong to stay.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:22, September 16, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades

See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: Based off of JTWC intensities. TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, 200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%, 100% or TBA

Grading colors: EO+, EO, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA


International:

To reduce clutter and save space, only tropical systems that were declared at least a TD by both the JMA and JTWC are included.

  • Bolaven:
    • Retirement: 6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
    • Grading: F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.
  • Sanba:
    • Retirement: 8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
    • Grading: F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.
  • Jelawat:
    • Retirement: 0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
    • Grading: A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.
  • 04W:
    • Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
    • Grading: F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.
  • Ewiniar:
    • Retirement: 39% - $812 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 13 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
    • Grading: F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.
  • Maliksi:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
    • Grading: D - Failed to make typhoon status, despite being so close.
  • Gaemi:
    • Retirement: 0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
    • Grading: E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.
  • Prapiroon:
    • Retirement: 5% - 4 deaths and $10 million in damage. Also contributed to the devastating Japan floods.
    • Grading: C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.
  • Maria:
    • Retirement: 30% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths were less than initially feared. However, $623 million is still on the significant side.
    • Grading: A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.
  • Son-Tinh:
    • Retirement: 5% - Very deadly, with 166 deaths and $256 million in damage. Since it mainly affected Vietnam, which has never retired a storm name before, I highly doubt this will be retired. The chance mainly only comes from China's impacts ($35.8 million). Vietnam (and I think Laos too?) never retires storm names and have even snubbed two comparably destructive storms, Damrey and Doksuri, last year. I would be tempted to give this a 0% had it never affected China.
    • Grading: D- - Credit for unexpectedly moving back out to sea and regenerating. However, the deaths and devastation prevent the grade from being any higher than this.
  • Ampil:
    • Retirement: 12% - China has seen much, much worse.
    • Grading: D- - Some credit for reaching STS status according to the JMA.
  • 13W:
    • Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
    • Grading: F- - At least it didn't steal a JMA name.
  • Wukong:
    • Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
    • Grading: D+ - Became a borderline typhoon, and only JMA failed to recognize it as a typhoon.
  • Jongdari:
    • Retirement: 44% - Damages were very significant (>$1.48 billion), which makes retirement a possibility. However, Japan is a bit lax at retiring names.
    • Grading: B - Awesome track consisting of loops and a rare approach of Japan from the west. That slightly boosts the grade.
  • 16W:
    • Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired due to lack of name.
    • Grading: F- - Shear took a toll on the poor system. At least it didn't steal a name.
  • Shanshan:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - Moved near Tokyo while still at typhoon strength, but caused little damage.
    • Grading: B- - Did a satisfactory job intensity-wise.
  • Yagi:
    • Retirement: 16% - $386 million in damage and 7 deaths is highly unlikely for retirement.
    • Grading: F - Weak failure that barely even tried. It did last over a week though.
  • Leepi:
    • Retirement: 0.1% - No damage or death reports were ever released, although it did strike Japan and South Korea.
    • Grading: D+ - Unofficially reached typhoon strength.
  • Bebinca:
    • Retirement: 16% - Did a sizable amount of damage and killed 16 people. Retirement's highly unlikely, but it ain't impossible.
    • Grading: D- - At least it reached STS status and wasn't a total name waste.
  • Rumbia:
    • Retirement: 91% - Oh no, this was a VERY destructive as well as deadly storm, especially for its intensity. Retirement is very likely as it is now the costliest storm of the season, with 53 deaths to go along with it. This is probably as good as gone.
    • Grading: E - Although it peaked short of STS intensity, it isn't a complete fail, especially considering the impacts.
  • Soulik:
    • Retirement: 34% - Did some damage, but also caused 86 deaths. The death toll alone could give it an outside shot.
    • Grading: B - Reached a nice intensity which is worthy of a satisfactory grade.
  • Cimaron:
    • Retirement: 3% - $30.6 million isn't enough.
    • Grading: B - According to JMA, it peaked at the same exact intensity as Soulik (100 mph/950 mbars).
  • 24W:
    • Retirement: N/A - Not named.
    • Grading: F - Not that much of an epic failure, since 6 deaths were reported and some damage.
  • Jebi:
    • Retirement: 65% - Looking like a likely retirement candidate due to how intense it was when it hit Japan (most intense since Yancy in 1993). 17 deaths have been reported after it hit Japan with damages exceeding $3.29 billion. However, Japan has snubbed some other significant storms in the past.
    • Grading: A+ - A very powerful system that is tied with Maria and Jelawat for most intense of the 2018 season. Japan impacts prevent the grade from getting higher than this.
  • Mangkhut:
    • Retirement: 94% - A catastrophic storm for Luzon and also damaging for other areas, I would faint if it doesn't go after this year.
    • Grading: A++ - Got insanely powerful, but knocked from the EO rating for its impacts.
  • Barijat:
    • Retirement: 1% - Likely wasn't too bad for the areas it affected.
    • Grading: F- - Meh... a lame failure.
  • Trami:
    • Retirement: 38% - A billion dollars in damage, but it was overshadowed by various other storms.
    • Grading: A+ - Another fantastic super typhoon.
  • 29W:
    • Retirement: N/A - Not named.
    • Grading: F- - Failure fishie, but at least a name wasn't stolen.
  • Kong-rey:
    • Retirement: 13% - Not a seriously destructive storm considering it only affected the Ryukyu Islands, and as a weaker system, South Korea. Its impacts, while somewhat significant, shouldn't be enough for retirement.
    • Grading: A+ - Just another super typhoon deserving of a good grade.
  • Yutu:
    • Retirement: 76% - The impacts in the northern Mariana Islands, where it was the worst storm on record, and the Philippines will very likely lead to Yutu's retirement. However, the damage total is very low compared to other big ones this year.
    • Grading: A++ - Became the strongest of the season but some points are deducted for its impacts.
  • Toraji:
    • Retirement: 1% - Caused 19 deaths and some damage, but Vietnam never retires names. Highly doubt it was too bad in the Malay Peninsula.
    • Grading: F- - A punky failure, but gets a tiny bit of points for regenerating in the Gulf of Siam.
  • Man-yi:
    • Retirement: 0% - At least we saw a fishie in this basin for once.
    • Grading: B+ - A modest typhoon, some points earned for being one of few storms this year to stay out to sea.
  • Usagi:
    • Retirement: 1% - Slight damage and a few deaths won't earn it retirement.
    • Grading: C- - Weak typhoon, nothing really special except for the fact that it was monitored for weeks before it developed.

PAGASA: Retirement percentages only.

  • Josie: 100% - Wikipedia reports β‚±4.66 billion in damage, which meets their retirement criteria.
  • Ompong: 100% - 33.9 billion PHP reported in the Philippines, which ranks this as the 4th costliest Philippine typhoon on record. Not to mention over a hundred deaths. This is OBVIOUSLY gone.
  • Rosie: 100% - Meets the criteria for damage, causing β‚±2.9 billion.
  • No other names meet PAGASA's retirement requirements of β‚±1 billion in damage and 300 deaths.

Notes: Intensity colors -

  • Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
  • I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
  • I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -

  • "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
  • "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
  • 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
  • New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
  • Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized. These fonts don't apply to PAGASA storms because the only individual storms included in the PAGASA section are those that will be retired.

Grading colors -

  • EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
  • Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
  • Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 07:48, December 8, 2018 (UTC))

Harvey's retirement predictions

Intensity colors: TD, TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.9%, 1-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%

Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA


JMA Names:

  • Bolaven:
    • Retirement: 7% - Only did minor damage. Unlikely to be retired.
    • Grade: F - Weak name stealer that was not even considered a TS by the JTWC. Not any lower because it at least spanned two calendar years.
  • Sanba:
    • Retirement: 12% - Like Bolaven, it's a weak tropical storm that caused minor damage, but a higher death count and a lower cost total. Also unlikely to be retired.
    • Grade: F - It's also a weak name stealer like Bolaven. Not really memorable.
  • Jelawat:
    • Retirement: 0.001% - Aside from the minor impacts to Palau, the Caroline Islands and the Mariana Islands, there was no other impact caused by this storm.
    • Grade: A+++ - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
  • 04W:
    • Retirement: N/A
    • Grade: F - The storm mostly failed. But I do give it credit for not stealing a name.
  • Ewiniar:
    • Retirement: 37% - Currently the most destructive, causing $573 million USD damage and 15 deaths. It does have a chance of getting retired.
    • Grade: A+++ - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
  • Maliksi:
  • Gaemi:
  • Prapiroon:
  • Maria:
  • Son-Tinh:
  • Ampil:

PAGASA Names: No name meets their retirement criteria yet.


Notes:

Harveycane (Talk | Contributions) 06:05, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

SuperMarioBros99thx's update on Son-Tinh

I am sorry if i had to say this which should have been off-topic because i recently noticed that this storm was a monster and not just a simple one so i had to bring this.​​​​​​
Recently in Wikipedia i, as SMB99thx essentially changed Son-Tinh's page into something of more of a disaster than it should be. When i am reanalyzing about this storm, i noticed that Laos dam collapse is highly connected to this storm, not just related into it. There is a fact that Laos dam collapse' deaths are included in the death totals and linked to the article of that dam collapse, i noticed that Laos dam collapse damages are not updated and found more interesting details about the collapse for example are the missing people. As such i've changed the much as i could including linking the storm into another deadly storm (see also section), Severe Tropical Storm Linda. I came into the conclusion that this storm is severely underestimated, thus i had to make a major changes like that. Thus, i had to bring that storm for attention here, first off in Hurricanes Wiki.

I would love to bring it more but i had to share the information in here first. Hopefully you will know how truly disastrous this storm it is. I expect grade changes and some ratings changes but overall i think this storm is unlikely to retire as most have said about it (Indochina has a poor record of retiring these disastrous storms). Anyways, thanks for receiving this news item. Son-Tinh is a Washi's counterpart of Indochina, but unlikely to get retirement anytime soon.Β  Feel free to remove this section if that change were to be not accepted and reverted, but otherwise it's okay.

Thanks,

{{SUBST:User:SuperMarioBros99thx_XD/sig}} 05:26, August 12, 2018 (UTC)Β i had a broken signature for now, signature coming soon

Jsky's retirement predictions

Although many storms did not do enough damage, i would post those that are destructive.

  • Maria, somewhat low chance of retirement
  • Jebi, likely getting retired
  • Mangkhut, nearly guaranteed to be retired
  • Yutu, 100% Gone for good!

For PAGASA names:

  • Josie, although the monsoon was the main threat, it could have a slim chance to stay despite causing over 1 billion Pesos
  • Ompong, Gone for good, this name is not going to be used again!

Make your guesses about the retirement of names

What names do you think will be retired at the end of the season? I think Jebi, Mangkhut and Yutu will be retired, while Ompong for PAGASA, and possibly, Rosita if Yutu does enough damage in Northern Luzon. Jskylinegtr (talk) 14:02, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

Josie will also get retired for PAGASA due to meeting their requirements.Β YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:52, October 27, 2018 (UTC)