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Storm Event Archives: Hector, Lane
AOI: West of Costa Rica
Invested. This invest may actually be linked to future development of the Atlantic AOI over the NW Caribbean right now, but regardless of development, rainfall and flooding are threats to Central America. Ryan1000 04:05, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
- Up to 20/30, although land interaction may inhibit development. ~ Steve 04:54, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
- Now 20/20, but realistically this isn't going to form because it will make landfall very soon. ~ Steve 05:50, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
- Out of the TWO and combined with Michael.
AOI: South of Mexico VIII
- I doubt this will become much due to land interaction. At most, maybe a TD or (hopefully not) a name-stealer. ~ Steve 17:21, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
- 60/70 now.
- Wow, didn't really expect this much organization. However due to land interaction, it might only be TS Tara at most, unless it pulls off a Max. The 5-day forecast seems to take it more out to sea eventually. If that comes true, this system might be more significant than I expect. ~ Steve 06:01, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Twenty Two-E
35 mph/1006 mb as of latest advisory, and expected to become a hurricane as it moves away from the Mexican coast. Here comes Tara, our ACE record breaker! Send Help Please (talk) 15:13, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
- Yep, we're going to pass 1992's ACE if this comes to pass, and we may have Vicente behind Tara from the below AOI. And, both will probably be fishspinners to boot. Great to see. We're currently at 293.6825 in 2018, 1992 ended at 295.492. So this would have to bust hard to not break 1992's all-time ACE record. Ryan1000 15:52, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Tara
- Tara is still at 45 mph, but a hurricane is out of the forecast as the NHC expects Tara to peak as a strong TS at 65 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:57, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
- Say hello to the storm that will make 2018 break the all-time EPac ACE record. Expected to strengthen to a peak of 65 mph, although it's entirely possible we'll see it become a hurricane. At the moment, 2018's ACE is 294, only a step away from tying 1992. And this is all from a season still 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes and one major behind 1992's storm total. Insane... ~ Steve 00:11, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
Tara's already at 65 mph and could become a hurricane briefly. Also, she's getting a little too close for comfort to the Pacific coast of Mexico...behave yourself Tara. Ryan1000 03:46, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
- Tara has apparently missed her opportunity to become a hurricane, but seems to be nearing a landfall in southwestern Mexico as a 60 mph TS. ACE currently at 294.72 units, less than 1 full unit away from 1992. Ryan1000 11:06, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
AOI: SE of Mexico
- Up to 0/30.
- This could actually take us to the "V" name (Vicente). wow ~ Steve 06:02, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
- The GFS takes this one to major hurricane intensity and forecasts it to scrape the southern Baja California peninsula as a 962 mbar storm in 12 days. Might not happen since its 12 days out, and I hope this'll become strong without hitting land. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 17:46, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
0/70. Haven't seen such a stark contrast between 2 and 5-day odds of development in a while. In any instance, it should be invested soon. This AOI may actually be coming partly from the leftovers of 94L in the Atlantic after it moves over Central America tomorrow night. Ryan1000 12:41, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
- 0/80. Wow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:55, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
- Rarely have I seen that much of a contrast between 2-day and 5-day. Should be Vicente by the end of the week and looks like it will also significantly affect Mexico. ~ Steve 00:14, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
- We could even go up to Xavier if this, the other EPAC AOI, and the invest in the Atlantic crosses over and forms here (which models are indicating). On the personal note, this is the first "T" named storm I've tracked in both basins.
- Rarely have I seen that much of a contrast between 2-day and 5-day. Should be Vicente by the end of the week and looks like it will also significantly affect Mexico. ~ Steve 00:14, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
94L might actually be linked to long-term development of this if it and this AOI merge down the road, like that earlier AOI this month merged with the invest that became Michael in the Atlantic. But if they become separate storms, and the 10/20 AOI SSW of Baja develops (though that's unlikely) then we could be up to the "X" name for the first time since 1992. Ryan1000 11:15, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
- Up to 40/90. Also, it looks like I was right; the NHC now explicitly mentions in the Tropical Weather Outlook that this is expected to form directly from 94L crossing into the East Pacific. So we won't get two separate storms here. Unless, another one forms behind this at some point. Ryan1000 13:02, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
AOI: 900 mi SSW of Baja
10/20. If this develops, we could be up to Willa.... ~ Steve 00:16, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
Retirements at a Glance
A2.0's EastPac and CPac retirement expectations
- Aletta - 4% - A fishspinner but showed us how to start a season. 4% because it peaked as a C4.
- Bud - 4% - Also 4% because of its Category 4 status. Great follow-up to Aletta, but juat like Bud's predecessor, it caused no effects to land, so that won't merit any realistic chance of retirement for Bud too.
- Carlotta - 5% - Affected Mexico and caused some problems, but no fatalities were recorded so I think Carlotta will be back in 2024.
- Daniel - 0% - Danfail it is, as Send Help Please called it. Broke the streak of strong hurricanes that bore the same name. Yikes.
- Emilia - 0% - Another forgettable storm.
- Fabio - 2% - For peaking as a Category 2. Forecast to become a major, yet Fabio bottled it a la Hilary 2017.
- Gilma - 0% - Just like what Send Help Please also said, Failma. The Failicia of this season along with Danfail, so far.
- Hector - 4.5% - Remained at the south of Hawaii, crossed the 3 Pacific basins, but a fishspinner. Hector will be back in 2024, but this storm will always be remembered for its longevity, and for almost reaching Category 5 status.
- Ileana - 0.5% - No, just no. That .5 is for being a strong TS, but realistically, Ileana will be back in 2024.
- John - 2% - Almost became a major, but did not cause significant impacts.
- Kristy - 0.75% - For almost reaching hurricane status.
- Lane - TBD - Became the first CPac C5 since Ioke, but this is not looking good for Hawaii, so far.
joestar's OAP home preddies
- Aletta (0%): "haha look at me i believe i can fly i believe i can touch the sky no motherf-cker can match me ahahahaha" grade: A
- Bud (0%): "haha i'm gonna beat you! all years before 2006 sucked! now i'm finally a cat 4! i made landfall unlike that dutch twit aletta who is a coward!" grade: A-
- Carlotta (0%): "mummy i wanna go to mexico like patwicia" grade: E
- Daniel (0%): "zzzzzz... damn... zzzzzzz" grade: F
- Emilia (0%): "all 1994 cat 5s for sh-t tropical storms in 2018" grade: F
- Fabio (0%): "i am trying to eat more to be a category 5 but i'm not gaining any weight" grade: C
- Gilma (0%): "SMOKE SHEAR EVERYDAY!" EVERYDAY!" rip in kill 3sexy5felicia 2018-2018 never 5get grade: U
HectorMr Worldwide (weeb%): this boi travel to asia to get some cute anime girls like shan shan uwu grade: A* (pronounced "a star" bc that is an a+ in bongland where i'm from)
- Ileana (dinner%): was made in the kitchen for a hungry boi grade: F('ood')
- John (hungry%): he bravo'd on ileana grade: C('annibal')
- Kristy (0%): john controlled her and taking her to the middle of nowhere. ofc not. worse than thought smh grade: D
JaneLane (75%): u fakaz got blown by de one and only faka lane rip grade: (A*) T H I C C BOI 😩💦💦😍😍😍❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️😘😘😘😘😘😘😂🔫
- Aletta: 0% - A beautiful, intense, harmless kick-off to the season.
- Bud: 1% - Another gorgeous storm to observe over open water, with fortunately minimal effects on land.
- Carlotta: 2% - Was more of a nuisance for Mexico than expected.
- Daniel: no
- Emilia: 0% - Not an epic fail, not much of a winner either. It sort of just existed.
- Fabio: 0% -
- Gilma: 0% - Worse flop than Daniel in terms of intensity but at least it was resilient in its post-TS depression stage.
- Hector: 0% - Gud storm was gud. I'll defer to Steve and Ryan's explanations as to why.
<1%3% - John murdered her and consumed her remains <death metal plays in background> before she could do much to Mexico.
- Bumping up a tad — Ileana is the first storm of the season to cause fatalities, with a death toll of 4 thus far. Fingers crossed it doesn't rise any higher.
- John: 0% - The ends probably didn't justify the means, but by preventing Ileana from being any worse for Mexico, John arguably helped more than he harmed.
- Kristy: -1% - You can take a negative percent as punishment for stalling just below hurricane status for a full day, only to abruptly collapse into nothing. Poor show, Kristy.
- Lane: TBD% - Still active. We'll see whether this becomes a threat to Hawaii down the road.
Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5
Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ???
- Aletta (0%) - A nice harmless fishspinner. Obviously this won't be going.
- Bud (0.001%) - While it did affected land at the end of its life, this was also pretty much a fishspinner
- Carlotta (1%) - While weak, it has came close to Mexico, but no deaths and damage were reported.
- Daniel (0%) - A weak failicia that untimately was a name stealer. Unimpressed
- Emilia (0%) - A rather weak, but a nice fishspinner
- Fabio (0%) - Nice fishspinning hurricane that broke the TS streak, but failed to reach major hurricane status. Sigh
- Gilma (0%) - Same as Daniel, except weaker, and only lasted 6 hours as a TS. Name-stealer.
- Hector (0%) - An impressive, long-lasting tri-basin crosser major hurricane that stayed away from land, but also failed to reach C5 status
- Ileana (3%) - Didn't last long before being absorbed by John, but unfortunately also caused 4 fatalities
- John (0%) - Pretty much a fish that failed to become a major hurricane
- Kristy (0%) - Same as above, but instead failed to become a hurricane
- LANE (50%) - Became the first C5 in the EPAC/CPAC since Patricia in 2015, but also severely affected Hawaii, became the wettest tropical cyclone of the state and the second wettest in the US behind Harvey 2017. Damage and deaths are unknown at the moment, but seeing as how uncommon it is for a EPAC name to be retired (sometimes random), I'll give the retirement chance in a flip of a coin
- Miriam (0%) - Nice strong fish storm.
- Norman (0.001%) - Also strong fish that imapcted Hawaii with minor damage
- Olivia (1%) - Impacted Hawaii as a tropical storm, but this shouldn't be retired
- Paul (0%) - Weak fish
- Rosa (10%) - Wow, this was deadly, and so far, the deadliest of the season. But even then, this will stay.
- Sergio (0.001%) - What a long lived storm, and yet another C4, and impacted land but no damage and deaths have been confirmed
- Tara (???) - Currently active
- Walaka (0.001%) - First CPAC name since 2016, and the second C5 of the season. Impacted islands that has no people, but I don't see this name being retired.
- Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
- The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
- Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.
02:36, August 1, 2018 (UTC) Last updated 01:53, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.
Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, 200+ mph
Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%, 100% or TBA
EO+, EO, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA
Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
- Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
- Grading: F - Gets credit for its formation before the start of the season. Still a fail, nonetheless.
- Retirement: 0% - Complete fishspinner.
- Grading: A - A nice early season powerful hurricane. As a bonus, no one was affected at all.
- Retirement: 1% - Struck Baja, but without doing much harm. Caused a moisture plume to reach the southwestern U.S., and that wasn't harmful either. Impacts are too light for retirement.
- Grading: A- - Another nicely strong hurricane that reached the bare minimum for C4. Impacts are not enough to affect the grade.
- Retirement: 2% - Caused torrential rainfall in the area of Mexico that it affected. Impacts are not enough to even think about retirement, though.
- Grading: D - Strong tropical storm that affected land. At least it was not a total failure like the below storm was.
- Retirement: 0% - Out to sea, no one was affected.
- Grading: Z - Laughable failure that only lasted 2 days and peaked at no more than 45 mph/1003 mbar. Danfail will be remembered as a complete nothingburger. 😂
- Retirement: 0% - Another fishspinner.
- Grading: E - That very active June was a bit more about quantity than quality. Reached 60 mph, but I don't care for this boring storm.
- Retirement: 0% - Yet another out-to-sea system.
- Grading: C- - A strong C2 usually doesn't get this low of a grade. But the story is that Fabio's grade really suffered because it was expected to become a major hurricane, but flunked the mark by just 5 mph! In fact, it had potential to RI to reach C4 or possibly even C5. A major disappointment you were, Fabio.
- Retirement: 0% - Also out to sea.
- Grading: Z - Even worse than Danfail, and was a TS for only 6 measly hours. Gilfail was one of the worst, and most laughable, name-stealers ever! It did last a few days in total, which is the only thing that prevents it from being Z-.
- Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired.
- Grading: Z - It had potential to last even longer than it did. At least it didn't steal a name. Still a pathetic failure though.
- Retirement: 0% - Despite its long track, it stayed out to sea and no fatalities or damage were reported at all.
- Grading: EO - Oh boy, where do I start. It crossed THREE basins, the first to do so since Genevieve in 2014. Also, it broke the record for most consecutive days as a major hurricane and most hours as a C4 in the northeastern Pacific. Except for dangerous surf in Hawaii, this did not harm anyone at all! Hector has earned its status as an extraordinarily outstanding storm! The only thing preventing this from being EO+, my absolute highest grade, is that it stayed below C5 unlike John '94 (a relatively similar storm).
- Retirement: 6% - Unfortunately proved to be deadly. 🙁 Highly unlikely for retirement though.
- Grading: E - Did its best in the face of John. However, they did forecast a hurricane once.
- Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts were high surf.
- Grading: C- - Pulled a Fabio by flunking major status. And shame on him for being a cannibal.
- Retirement: 0% - Nope.
- Grading: D- - It had potential to become a hurricane, but failed by 5 mph.
- Retirement: 65% - Record rainfall has occurred in Hawaii, causing at least $200 million dollars in damage and a death. This could very well be retired due to the rainfall amount and the damage. Hawaii rarely sees tropical cyclones, especially ones like these.
- Grading: EO - Absolutely amazing storm that became the C5 that Hector never became, and was resilient in the end. Unfortunately, Hawaiian impacts prevent it from getting EO+.
- Retirement: 0% - Fishspinners don't get retired.
- Grading: B - I'm surprised it was able to pull off C2 intensity. Thus, it gets a satisfactory grade from me.
- Retirement: 0% - Fishie, again.
- Grading: A++ - A very amazing storm that got very powerful and was resilient as heck. Almost EO level, would have got there if it reached C5.
- Retirement: 8% - Damage totals not released yet, hopefully it wasn't that destructive. Preliminary percentage for now and I highly doubt retirement because it was overshadowed by Lane.
- Grading: A+ - Another awesome storm, bonus points for being the first TC ever to make landfall on Maui and Lanai.
- Retirement: 0% - Heck no.
- Grading: F- - It didn't really even try, and broke the streak of awesome storms. What a joke.
- Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired.
- Grading: F - Credit for developing in the face of land interaction, and for thankfully not stealing a name.
- Retirement: 12% - Actually turned out pretty deadly... 15 deaths throughout its path, unfortunately. Flash flooding in the southwestern U.S. caused the indirect death of 1 person. The system's remnant showers did not reach my area, which sucks because of our drought.
- Grading: A - One of the many C4s this year.
- Retirement: 3% - It's doubtful that it was too bad for Baja.
- Grading: A+ - Long-lived and yet another C4. Made 2018 break the 2015 record for amount of C4s in the EPac.
- Retirement: 8% - It only affected mainly unpopulated islands, especially Johnston Atoll which was hit hard, but impacts are probably too negligible for retirement. Its great intensity might also be a contributing factor in the retirement chance.
- Grading: EO - Alongside Gilma '94, Walaka is the 2nd-strongest system by pressure on record in the CPac, only behind Ioke. That enough is deserving of the "EO" rating.
- Retirement: TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
- Grading: TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.
Notes: Intensity colors -
- Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
- I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
- I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.
Retirement percentage colors -
- "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
- "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
- 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
- New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
- Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.
Grading colors -
- EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
- Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
- Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.
~ Steve 🌞 04:06, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 00:19, October 16, 2018 (UTC))
Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Here's my thoughts on retirements so far:
- Aletta - 0% - A great way to start the season, and her strongest incarnation to date as well.
- Bud - 1% - Like Aletta, this is the strongest incarnation of Bud to date, but his Baja landfall brought minimal effects at most.
- Carlotta - 2% - This was to Bud as Carlos was to Blanca in 2015, a slightly worse storm but still probably won't be retired.
- Daniel - 0% - It's a shame that Daniel, one of our traditional EPac major fishspinners, flopped this time around...try again in 2024.
- Emilia - 0% - Fared slightly better than Daniel but was still unimpressive overall.
- Fabio - 0% - Reminds me of Hilary last year. He failed to meet expectations, but his large size held him back.
- Gilma - 0% - Lasted slightly longer than Daniel but failed worse than he did by intensity.
- Hector - 0% - Was an absolutely amazing storm to track. It lasted for the most consecutive days as a major hurricane on record in the Pacific while east of the dateline, at 7.75 days, beating Norbert of 1984, and racked up the 4th highest ACE of any Pacific hurricane while east of the dateline as well, all while not causing any known damage or deaths on land. My favorite storm of the season.
- Ileana - 4% - Despite being eaten by John, Ileana unfortunately still killed 4 people in Mexico, with some minor damage to boot.
- John - 0% - Fishie, and failed to be a major; consider that punishment for eating your little sister.
- Kristy - 0% - It's a shame that Kristy fell short of hurricane intensity; hopefully she can be upgraded in reanalysis.
- Lane - 60% - Lane became Hawaii's wettest hurricane on record, narrowly surpassing Hiki of 1950, and apparently according to one of Dr. Master's blog posts, Lane caused at least 200 million dollars in flood damage to Hawaii, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. That's almost 3 times the damage from Iselle in 2014 and the costliest storm of the season, not to mention the 1 death. I can't say for certain if Lane will be retired, but it's definitely a possibility that can't be overlooked.
- Miriam - 0% - Defied intensity expectations, but still remained well at sea.
- Norman - 0% - Strong and long-lived, but remained a safe distance from Hawaii
- Olivia - 3% - Became the first tropical storm to strike the Hawaian islands of Maui and Lanai, but Olivia's disorganized, weakened state when she struck the islands led to only minor damage, limited rainfall, and some fallen tree limbs and power outages. She probably won't be retired.
- Paul - 0% - Just a weak, short-lived fishspinner.
- Rosa - 15% - Rosa killed at least 13 people in Mexico and Arizona so far, making her the deadliest storm of the season, and there was likely extensive flood damage too. I don't think Rosa will be retired, but she definitely gets credit for the impacts.
- Sergio - 5% - Made landfall in Mexico, and an unusually fast-moving one at that. Cause some deaths and damage, but not enough to retire it.
- Walaka - >5% - This is a tough call...it tore apart the Marine monuments and sanctuaries on some islands well west of Hawaii, especially Johnston Atoll, but no people live there, so no human lives or property were lost. Not sure if Walaka will be retired based on hitting those islands alone, but it could be.
KN2731's storm grades & retirements
I'll jump on the bandwagon and add mine too.
Grades: A, B, C, D, E, F. These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.
Retirements: 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%.
- One-E – grade D. Couldn't do much in the face of shear, but gave us an early start.
- Aletta – grade A, retirement 0%. Amazing powerful June fishspinner. Well done for our first ever major hurricane Aletta.
- Bud – grade B, retirement 5%. Touched C4 but rapidly weakened immediately after. Thankful for that however as it made landfall on Baja California not long after, and didn't cause much damage.
- Carlotta – grade B, retirement 5%. Intensified surprisingly quickly close to land despite being forecast to fizzle. Not much damage reported, so that's all good.
- Daniel – grade F, retirement 0%. Historically Daniel was the name of a long line of fishspinning majors. Completely flopped this year with its weakest ever incarnation. Boo.
- Emilia – grade E, retirement 0%. Chose the wrong time and place to form and got burdened by shear.
- Fabio – grade C, retirement 0%. Great fishspinner, but lost points for peaking just under major hurricane status. :(
- Gilma – grade F, retirement 0%. Utterly pathetic name thief. Probably doesn't even deserve a grade.
- Nine-E – grade E. See Emilia.
- Hector – grade A, retirement 0%. Powerful tri-basin crosser that managed to miss Hawaii. Well done, Hector. Definitely best storm so far.
- Ileana – grade B, retirement 5%. Surprised us all by spinning up so quickly and beating out the more hopeful AOIs (John and Kristy). Could have become a hurricane (albeit a dangerous one, given her proximity to Mexico) if not for John's cannibal tendencies.
- John – grade C, retirement 0%. Gets points for being interesting by cannibalizing Kristy, but pulled a Fabio and flunked major hurricane status. :(
- Kristy – grade D, retirement 0%. Screwed up by peaking just under hurricane intensity; grade may rise if she's upgraded post-season.
Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)
Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.9%, 1-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%
Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA
- Retirement: N/A
- Grading: F - Mostly a fail, but it did form in the early season.
- Retirement: 0% - This storm did not affect land.
- Grading: A - This storm gets a high grade due to the rapid deepening and the great satellite imagery at peak intensity. This is the strongest incarnation of this storm to date.
- Retirement: 0.7% - It did struck Baja late in its life as a weak TS, however impacts are too minimal for retirement.
- Grading: A- - Like the above storm, it was a powerful early storm that was the strongest of its incarnation, however this one was slightly weaker.
- Retirement: 1% - Caused torrential rainfall in Mexico. Impacts are minimal and do not affect the retirement.
- Grading: D - This would become the first of many weak storms in the season. Impacts aren't memorable enough to affect the grade.
- Retirement: 0% - Another fish storm.
- Grading: Z - Just about every other incarnation of this storm was a fishspinner that reached major hurricane status, but this one broke the chain and decided to fail miserably. Ugh...
- Retirement: 0% - Another fishspinner.
- Grading: E - Another weak fishspinner. Another fail, but it didn't fail too hard.
- Retirement: 0% - Yet another fishspinner.
- Grading: C - Well, it could have been higher, but it's only because it failed even though it was expected to be a major. And it was 5 mph away from becoming one, and might have even had the chance to become a C4 or possibly even C5. I would have put it lower, but at least it did reach a high intensity.
- Retirement: 0% - Another fish-spinning fishspinner.
- Grading: Z- - It barely lasted more than two days, and was only a TS for 6 hours. In other words, it didn't try at all.
- Retirement: N/A
- Grading: F- - Another weak depression. At least it didn't steal a name like the above storm did.
- Retirement: 0% - Impact was minimal.
- Grading: S - This is hands down the best storm of the season. It crossed all three basins, the last time this happened was with Genevieve in 2014. It also broke the record for most consecutive days as a major hurricane and most hours as a C4 in the northeastern Pacific. Best of all, it didn't harm me at all (I live in Hawaii FYI). C5 or not, it still earned the highest grade.
- Retirement: 3% - 4 deaths. Still unlikely for retirement.
- Grading: C+ - It did its best, unfortunately eaten up by John. It could have been a hurricane.
- Retirement: 0% - Only high surf.
- Grading: C- - While it did get some points for eating up a storm, it flunked major status.
- Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
- Grading: E - It could have become a hurricane, but it failed.
- Retirement: 21% - Well, this is a hard one. Lane was the third wettest tropical cyclone to hit Hawaii, bringing 52 inches. It didn't really affect me too much, which is good. This grade however is not final as the deaths and damage are unknown.
- Grading: A - Lane was an impressive storm to say for the least. It did become the first Category 5 hurricane in 3 years and the first C5 in the Central Pacific since 2006, but unfortunately, it caused Hawaii (which is where I live in, BTW) to get very paranoid with the threatening of a potential landfall, but it didn't make landfall (which is good). The combination of the storm being impressive while threatening me at the same time makes the grade uncertain, but for now I'll give it an A.
- Percentages/grades in italics indicate temporary ratings and would have yet to change.
Lee’s retirement predictions
- Aletta- 0%: Nice harmless Category 4 to start the season. However, no impacts= no retirement.
- Bud-1%: Another Category 4. Made landfall in Baja, but didn’t do much. It’s staying.
- Carlotta-2%: Like Bud, it caused some impacts to land. Still, also like Bud, it’s staying.
- Daniel-0%: Well, it existed. That’s about all I can say.
- Emilia-0%: Ehhhh.
- Fabio-0%: Was a nice system to look at for a few days.
- Gilma-0%: Absolutely not.
- Hector- 0%: Absolutely amazing storm, and my favorite of the year so far. Became a really strong Cat 4, and lasted quite a while, not harming anyone in the process. First storm to cross all three Northern Pacific basins since Genevieve. It may be upgraded to a Cat 5 in post analysis, but since neither Jose or Joaquin were, I won’t hold my breath. No impacts doesn’t get it a chance at retirement, but I’ll give him this (⭐️) for being such a great storm.
- Ileana- 5%: Unfortunately, I have to revise my previous prediction. Ileana did manage to cause 4 deaths before becoming lunch for Hurricane John. Still, I don’t see her going anywhere.
- John- 0%: Other than completely murdering another storm, John didn’t do much. He’s staying.
- Kristy- 0%: Didn’t do much. Staying
- Lane- Currently active Expected to bring impacts to Hawaii. Currently a high-end category 4, but will weaken before it gets to Hawaii. Lane, behave.
IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances
- Category 4 Aletta - 0% : C4 fishspinner, did nothing to land.
- Category 4 Bud - 0% : Another C4 storm, hit land but did nothing.
- Tropical Storm Carlotta - 0% : A TS, hit land but did nothing.
- Tropical Storm Daniel - 0% : Not sure why this name was even used for this storm.
- Tropical Storm Emilia - 0% : Another TS that did nothing.
- Category 2 Fabio - 0% : A C2 that failed to reach major hurricane intensity since it was so big and did nothing.
- Tropical Storm Gilma - 0% : Epic fail, even worse than Felicia '15.
- Category 4 Hector - 0% : Almost became a C5 and existed in all three North Pacific basins, but did nothing.
- Tropical Storm Ileana - 0.1% : Sadly caused the deaths of 4 people before being eaten by Hurricane John.
- Category 2 John - 0% : Failed to become a C3, ate TS Ileana.
- Tropical Storm Kristy - 0% : Did nothing.
- CATEGORY 5 LANE - 50% : Caused major flooding on the Big Island of Hawaii. The damage totals have yet to be found, plus I think they'll get rid of this name anyway.
- Category 2 Miriam - 0% : Was doomed to be a fail, but instead became a Category 2. It never did anything to land anyway.
- Category 4 Norman - 0% : Is currently a fishspinner that almost became a C5.
- Category 4 Olivia - 0.1% : It reached C4 intensity before making landfalls on Hawaii.
- Tropical Storm Paul - 0% : Weak storm that did nothing.
- Category 4 Rosa - 1% : Caused flooding in Arizona and California.
- Category 4 Sergio - 0% : Another long lived major hurricane that majorly boosted the ACE total! And it's now gonna hit Baja California, too!
- CATEGORY 5 WALAKA - 0.000000000001% : Hit Johnston Atoll. The end.
SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5
Grade colors: S, A+, A, A-, B, C, D, E, F, Failippe
Note: Impact to land has no affect on grade, aside from S rank, which is reserved for fishspinners or storms of minimal impact (less than $1 million in damages, no deaths).
- One-E: Grade: E - Retirement: 0% - Forgettable TD, only saved from an F by being a pre-season storm.
- Aletta: Grade: A+ - Retirement: 0% - Defied predictions by exploding into a Cat. 4, showing Adrian how it's done.
- Bud: Grade: A - Retirement: 0.1% - Did what Aletta did except slightly weaker and with minor land impacts.
- Carlottta: Grade: D - Retirement: 1% - Hovered around the Mexican coast for a while, but impacts were thankfully not all that major.
- Danfail: Grade: F - Retirement: 0% - Historic major turned epic fail. Dissapointing.
- Emilia: Grade: D - Retirement: 0% - Uh...
- Fabio: Grade: C - Retirement: 0% - Decent storm, but just barely missed Cat. 3 status despite predictions. Grade will go up if he attains major status on post-analysis.
- Failma: Grade: Failippe - Retirement: 0% - It could've been just another forgettable TD, but it had to go and steal the name Gilma in the worst way possible. What a disgrace.
- Nine-E: Grade: F - Retirement: 0% - It existed. NEXT!
- Hector: Grade: S - Retirement: 0% - Oh man, what a storm. It spent the longest consecutive time as a major in the history of the E Pac, racked up the 4th highest ACE in the history of the E Pac, crossed through 3 basins, and left Hawaii alone. Cat. 5 or no, Hector is definitely deserving of my highest grade, and is now one of my personal favorite storms of all time.
- Ileana: Grade D(inner) - Retirement: 4% - Tried to become a hurricane, but her time was cut short by her big brother John. Unfortunately, she caused the deaths of 4 people.
- John: Grade: C(annibal) - Retirement: 0% - Missed major status, but I consider that karma for consuming Ileana. Not cool, John.
- Kristy: Grade: D - Retirement: 0% - Came closer to hurricane status than Ileana, but still failed.
- LANE: Grade: A+ - Retirement: 55% - Definitely an impressive storm, being the first Cat. 5 in the Central Pacific since Ioke, the second storm this season to have an ACE total over 40 units, and an impressive display of resilience in the face of high shear. However, he is kept from an S rank by his impacts in Hawaii, where he dumped the second highest amount of rain from a tropical cyclone in US history on the Big Island, causing one death. The monetary damage estimates currently sit at greater than $200 million, which is more than Iwa, but in conjunction with the lack of landfall and the general mindset of the Hawaiian populace after his passing being that it could've been a lot worse, the retirement chance balances out to a little more than a coin toss.
- Miriam: Grade: A- - Retirement: 0% - Gets an A- rank for defying predictions and becoming a Cat 2 in the face of quite a lot of shear. Well done Miriam!
- Norman: Grade: S - Retirement: 0% - Initially looked to be another almost-but-not-quite Cat 5, but proved to be incredibly resilient when he restrengthened into a major not once, but twice, the second time being almost right out of nowhere. He also avoided land entirely, which, along with his performance, justifies him earning an S rank in my eyes.
- Olivia: Grade: A - Retirement: 5% - Managed to reach Cat. 4 intensity, and became the first storm to ever make landfall on Maui. Impacts were, thankfully, not all that bad.
- Paul: Grade: F - Retirement: 0% - Random fail to balance out all the awesome storms that came before it.
- Nineteen-E: Grade: E - Retirement: 0% - Formed in the Gulf of California which is strange enough to save it from an F ranking.
- Rosa: Grade: A - Retirement: 10% - The next in of the many Cat. 4s this season. Wound up hitting Baja as a depression later it's lifespan, and unfortunately killed quite a few people.
- Sergio: Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
- Walaka: Grade: S - Retirement: 0.0001% - Definitely made the two years that it took for him to show up worth it, as he exploded into at an astounding rate into the second Cat. 5 of the season. There were no deaths and the damage appears to be minimal, solidifying his S ranking.
Retirement predictions from Nut
Eh, boredom from me equals retirement predictions.
- One - N/A - Pre-season storm which flopped whilst trying to become a pre-season TS. At least there isn't that name steal.
- Aletta - 0% - An impressive C4 storm to kick off June. No impacts equal no retirement.
- Bud - 1% - Another C4, albeit a weaker one. I can't imagine retirement as he didn't kill anyone, damage was overall negligible in Baja and the rain his remnants brought was actually beneficial to the region, especially parts of California and Arizona.
- Carlotta - 5% - Classic old TS that paralleled the Mexican Pacific coast, bringing minor impact to parts of Mexico ineligible for retirement by their standards.
- Daniel - 0% - From what holded a MH streak since the '00s ended up becoming a failicia. Disappointing.
- Emilia - 0% - Better than Daniel, but barely did a thing.
- Fabio - 0% - It could've done better, let's be honest. Peaked at 110mph despite forecasts for it to become a major. A disappointment, but not a major one.
- Gilma - 0% - Essentially a repeat of the infamous Felicia 2015. Pathetic fail, even Daniel did better.
- Hector - 1% - From a flop of a storm to a tri-basin storm. First to cross past 180° since Genevieve, its record number of days spent as a major is all that impressive of a storm. Ultimately, it peaked at 155mph which is a slight shame. Oh well. Marginal credit given due to its very minor impacts to Hawaii (which would eventually be worsened later).
- Ileana - 5% - Only did the surf that sadly killed three. No retirement though.
- John - 0% - Did nothing other than produce high surfs across the Mexican and Baja Californian coastline. It did absorb Ileana but failed to become a major.
- Kristy - 0% - A storm that missed hurricane status but was closer than Ileana, at least it tried.
- Lane - 60% - Tricky to answer tbh. Given Hawaii's retirement standards and the hype of the storm approaching the islands as well as becoming the third wettest TC to hit the islands, slightly less than expected damage was wrought to the islands. It could've been much worse if it wasn't for the shear. It might be retired, it might not; it's just unpredictable really. I'm impressed by the fact that this became a C5 though, pulling in slightly more effort than Hector.
- Miriam - 0% - Despite the strong shear, it managed to go beyond our forecasting boundaries and became a C2. Impressed.
- Norman - 0% - Impressive performance. Became a 150mph major and a 130mph major second time round (C4 peaks twice) despite the conditions. Again, would be better if it was a C5 but then again, it was still a great storm nonetheless.
- Olivia - TBC - Currently active storm which is posing a minor threat to Hawaii. Hoping impacts aren't major considering they had Lane not so long ago. Despite that, it was mostly a fishspinner that became a C4. Nothing else needed.
- Paul - TBC - Currently active.
Male "L" names (Potentially for Lane)
We're 12 storms down so far, but Lane is rapidly looking like a very dangerous threat to Hawaii, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say he could already be the 2018 EPac season's first serious retirement candidate. If Lane does cause notable effects to Hawaii over the coming days, what do you think will replace him? Here are some suggestions:
I kinda think something English and simple, like Lane himself, will be the replacement. Luke anyone? (Logan reminds me of Paul but sadly not something hurricane ppl will chose :/ also leonardo is nice, like dicaprio, and kendrick lamar. levi ackerman/strauss anyone?) most likely luke though. what about lander? I know a guy named lander irl... lance is literally lane with a c tbh --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:29, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
- This may be jumping the gun, but my hat's in for either Lucas or Laurence. Send Help Please (talk) 01:34, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
In my opinion, Lucas, Luke, and Landon could be a best fit for Lane's replacement, that is if Lane does some notable impacts for Hawaii. I got some other male "L" names:
- Luigi (This would be funny having Mario and Luigi on the same basin)
I honestly don't think any of the names I've listed would be a best fit, but those are some other male "L" names.
- Forgot about Luigi, that would be a good pick too. Or Lucifer, but that's a bit intimidating, to say the least. Ryan1000 05:30, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
- That would have to be one of my favorite potential replacements, honestly... can you just imagine the irony of a 40 mph epic fail named Lucifer? :D (or, indeed, how fitting it would be for a Category 5 Hurricane Lucifer to threaten land...)
- In all seriousness though, my top 5 would have to be Lazlo, Luke, Luigi, Liam, and Lucifer, in that order. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 09:38, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
|Name||Operational Intensity and Duration||Reanalysis Intensity and Duration||TCR Release Date|
|One-E||35 mph, 1006 mbars, May 10-12||35 mph, 1007 mbars, May 10-11||July 12, 2018|
|Aletta||140 mph, 943 mbars, June 6-11||140 mph, 943 mbars, June 6-11||July 31, 2018|
|Bud||130 mph, 948 mbars, June 9-15||N/A||N/A|
|Carlotta||65 mph, 997 mbars, June 14-19||N/A||N/A|
|Daniel||45 mph, 1003 mbars, June 24-26||N/A||N/A|
|Emilia||60 mph, 997 mbars, June 27-July 2||60 mph, 997 mbars, June 27-July 1||August 21, 2018|
|Fabio||110 mph, 964 mbars, June 30-July 6||N/A||N/A|
|Gilma||40 mph, 1006 mbars, July 26-29||N/A||N/A|
|Nine-E||35 mph, 1008 mbars, July 26-27||35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 26-27||August 24, 2018|
|Hector||140 mph, 947 mbars^, July 31-August 6^^||N/A||N/A|
|Ileana||65 mph, 998 mbars, August 4-7||N/A||N/A|
|John||105 mph, 969 mbars, August 5-10||N/A||N/A|
|Kristy||70 mph, 991 mbars, August 7-11||N/A||N/A|
|Lane||140 mph, 948 mbars^, August 15-18^^||N/A||N/A|
|Miriam||75 mph, 992 mbars^, August 26-29^^||N/A||N/A|
|Norman||150 mph, 937 mbars, August 28-Sept.3^^||N/A||N/A|
|Olivia||130 mph, 948 mbars, September 1-8^^||N/A||N/A|
|Paul||45 mph, 1002 mbars, September 8-12||N/A||N/A|
|Nineteen-E||35 mph, 1002 mbars, September 19-20||N/A||N/A|
|Rosa||145 mph, 940 mbars, Sept. 25-Oct. 2||N/A||N/A|
|Sergio||140 mph, 943 mbars, September 29-Oct.12||N/A||N/A|
|Tara||65 mph, 995 mbars, October 14-present||N/A||N/A|
^This is the storm's peak intensity while it was located east of the Central Pacific, and the CPac TCR's on these storms will come out separately. In the CPac, Hector's operational peak was 155 mph and 936 mbars, Lane's CPac peak was 160 mph and 922 mbars, and Miriam's CPac peak was 100 mph and 974 mbars.
^^These storms didn't dissipate on these dates, but moved into the CPac (and later WPac for Hector) basins.
- Aletta is out. No changes happened to her though. Ryan1000 14:17, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
- do you want to put speeds in km/h for us non-americans or not --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 17:50, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
- Only difference is that Emilia's duration was cut slightly short; operationally she was thought to dissipate on July 2nd, now it was on the 1st. Ryan1000 13:42, August 28, 2018 (UTC)