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Current Systems: TROPICAL STORM TARA


This is the forum page for the 2018 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2018): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

March

01A.NONAME

90B.INVEST

First 2018 North Indian  Cyclone Invest! --211.198.26.242 11:35, March 11, 2018 (UTNC)

Now on JTWC with a low chance of development. --Roy25 19:55, March 11, 2018 (UTC)

The models aren't too enthusiastic about it but I hope it forms TBH.No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:47, March 11, 2018 (UTC)

It might peak at deep depression at most, according to models mentioned by RSMC New Delhi's outlook. They have it as "low" for 24-48 hours, but "moderate" for 48-72 hours. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:28, March 12, 2018 (UTC)


Is now a "Well-marked LPA" according to IMD with a high chance of formation and a code orange on jtwc.Here comes the 1st storm of the season!No.1 Mobile (talk) 17:52, March 12, 2018 (UTC)

Depression ARB 01

It's here.No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:54, March 13, 2018 (UTC)

Still a depression, but it's now coded yellow on JTWC. --Roy25 22:54, March 14, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of ARB 01

dead.No.1 Mobile (talk) 04:23, March 15, 2018 (UTC)

May

02A.SAGAR

91A.INVEST

Second invest in the basin this year. Low chance from JTWC. --Roy25 23:37, May 14, 2018 (UTC)

Looks very far west... hopefully the first named storm comes from this. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:17, May 15, 2018 (UTC)

Well here is a possible outcome for the invest, according to windy.com.

91A May 2018 Windy Tiger | Alberto will form!!! 10:24, May 15, 2018 (UTC)

Looks like a decent candidate for Sagar. Interesting storm to track if it forms. - Garfield

Now a medium chance from JTWC. God, this will be an interesting storm if it forms as it is far west. --70.190.21.73 14:25, May 15, 2018 (UTC)

Depression ARB 02

It's here. again.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:13, May 16, 2018 (UTC)

Again? This is a different depression lol. Now a tropical storm on the SSHWS. --Roy25 23:26, May 16, 2018 (UTC)
This system is in the Gulf of Aden which makes it a bit interesting. In the long run, it will strike land in 3 days. --70.190.21.73 00:04, May 17, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Sagar

Haven't posted in this basin forum for a while, but Sagar is now here and it could hit the western end of Somalia or Djbouti as a weak TS or depression in a few days, and it looks like it'll be the first storm since 01A of 1984 to transit the whole of the Gulf of Aden to western Somalia. Ryan1000 10:28, May 17, 2018 (UTC)

Wow, it intensifies into a cyclonic storm. I can’t say anything else. --70.190.21.73 14:23, May 17, 2018 (UTC)
Now in the Gulf of Aden, forecast to make landfall in Somalia on Saturday. --Roy25 22:32, May 18, 2018 (UTC)

Fun fact: Sagar means ocean in Bengali.Swirling Magnetar (talk) 03:02, May 19, 2018 (UTC)

A weird storm for sure. Only the 2nd in recorded history to entirely transverse the Gulf of Aden (after 01A of 1984). Expected to make landfall in northwestern Somalia very soon. If a storm can really head this far west, I guess it's only a matter of time before we witness a TC entering the Red Sea 😝 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:12, May 19, 2018 (UTC)
Sagar is now making landfall in Somalia, expected to dissipate later. --70.190.21.73 15:45, May 19, 2018 (UTC)

Deep Depression Sagar

Now downgraded to a deep depression. --70.190.21.73 00:35, May 20, 2018 (UTC)

Depression Sagar

Now a depression. --70.190.21.73 04:27, May 20, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sagar

Now gone. Unfortunately caused 4 deaths. --Roy25 20:10, May 20, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 16! ☹️ Probably because the region is poverty-stricken and not used to TCs. It's also the westernmost landfalling cyclone on record in the NIO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:26, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

I checked it just now. It caused 22 deaths! Sad! Tiger | Alberto will form!!! 13:48, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

Now the death toll is now 31. :( --70.190.21.73 14:27, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
That is quite a lot, in addition, Sagar has now caused an estimated US$80 million. --Roy25 22:32, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
death toll now just says “over 50”...69.58.110.138 13:19, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
Deaths now 55. --Roy25 00:07, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

03A.MEKUNU

92A.INVEST

Just east of Sagar with a low chance of forming from JTWC. --Roy25 22:32, May 18, 2018 (UTC)

Currently in a much more typical location for TCs than Sagar (lol). If it develops sufficiently, it will be Mekunu. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:15, May 19, 2018 (UTC)

Possible Mekunu 2018

Tiger | Alberto will form!!! 06:08, May 20, 2018 (UTC)

Could be even stronger.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:40, May 20, 2018 (UTC)

Meme
I honestly doubt this invest would be a very strong system the models claims, let alone if it even develops, as it is still low chance of formation by the JTWC, but this invest still has a chance. --Roy25 20:12, May 20, 2018 (UTC)
Not me either. But if it does in fact get that powerful, here comes a repeat of Chapala/Megh 2015, or a stronger version of them. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:29, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
JTWC has upped this to medium. IMD states that 92A has become "well-marked" and expects Mekunu within the next 48 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
Now high chance and TCFA issued by JTWC. Mekunu about to arrive. --Roy25 16:15, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

Depression ARB 03

so soon? wow.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:49, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

This should soon be Mekunu. --Roy25 22:24, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 03

already forecast to become a VSCS.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:03, May 22, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Mekunu

wow,ahead of schedule.No.1 Mobile (talk) 16:33, May 22, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunu

wow,it's getting even stronger.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:32, May 23, 2018 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunu

uh-oh.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:32, May 23, 2018 (UTC)

It intensified very fast. I could eve strenghen more further in the future Tiger | Alberto will form!!! 13:30, May 23, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC takes this up to a 100 mph category 2 storm before making landfall in southern Oman as a cat 1, just northeast of the border with Yemen. Oman hasn't seen that many hurricane-strength storms before; in fact they saw none before Gonu in 2007, and since then the only other hurricane-strength storm to hit Oman was Phet in 2010. Ryan1000 15:08, May 23, 2018 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunu

Probably at peak and about to landfall on the Oman coast.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:33, May 25, 2018 (UTC)

This got stronger than I expected, it's now up to 115 mph and it could be among Oman's strongest tropical cyclones ever. I know we're all hyped up on Alberto recently forming in the Atlantic but this is far more threatening right now and it should be having more attention as it heads towards the coast. Ryan1000 21:33, May 25, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunu (2nd time)

Made landfall in Oman and weakened back into a SCS over land according to RSMC New Delhi. Never really expected this to get so powerful! It unfortunately already killed 5 residents of Socotra and one in Oman. Also, two ships capsized off Socotra, causing 40 to be missing (hopefully most if not all come out alive!). The region is seriously not used to tropical cyclones, and I pray that the death toll doesn't start to explode! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:31, May 26, 2018 (UTC)

Deep Depression Mekunu

Down to a deep depression, should dissipate very soon. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:57, May 26, 2018 (UTC)

Hoping countries in the Arabian Peninsula weren't hit that badly. Deaths now stand at 6. --Roy25 00:09, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mekunu

Became post-tropical earlier. 11 deaths have been reported that were attributed from Mekunu. --Roy25 20:04, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

Now 13. 🙁 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:45, May 30, 2018 (UTC)
Now 30,with over 10 billion dollars in damages.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:36, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
Final death toll at 31, but the damage is significantly lower than $10B: $400 million. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:29, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

93B.INVEST

okay,wtf is this?No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:13, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

Missed a chance to see it, but no longer in JTWC. Ah well all those invests in this basin is probably because the entire basin have EXTREMELY warm water. --Roy25 16:15, May 21, 2018 (UTC)


Well it's not up on JTWC yet.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:49, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

Not even on Tropical Tidbits anymore, so I guess this invest is dead. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:34, May 26, 2018 (UTC)

94A.INVEST

Another one up. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:06, May 28, 2018 (UTC)

Not yet on JTWC, but up on Tropical Tidbits. --Roy25 15:34, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
This will not develop, or just dissipate within the next couple days. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:45, May 30, 2018 (UTC)

04B.NONAME

95B.INVEST

On JTWC with a medium chance of formation. --Roy25 15:34, May 28, 2018 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 01

As we were all distracted with Alberto, this depression formed earlier today, and made landfall in Myanmar. Still active according to Wikipedia. --Roy25 23:30, May 29, 2018 (UTC)

I was distracted by Alberto too, pretty sure we all were. Of course, I missed this system due to that. Was not much of a biggie, but it did bring torrential rains and strong winds to Myanmar and Bangladesh. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:45, May 30, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone BOB 01

Gone, at least peaked as TS on the SSHWS. --Roy25 22:32, May 30, 2018 (UTC)

July

96B.INVEST

And the NIO somehow wakes up. This invest is currently under code yellow on JTWC. Likely to remain as an invest, though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:40, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

I also don't see this strengthening anytime soon, if not, never, as it is near Bangladesh. --Roy25 16:43, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
Dead. --Roy25 18:25, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

September

04B.DAYE

97B.INVEST

New invest at the Bay of Bengal according to Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:43, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Low chance on JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:55, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
Medium chance now on JTWC.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   23:56, September 18, 2018 (UTC) 

TCFA issued, code red now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:40, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Daye

Nobody noticed this became NIO's third named storm of the season? Should be weak before landfall.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   02:32, September 21, 2018 (UTC) 

haha dayeee --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:48, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
Dead. I hope Daye did not cause any severe damage. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:52, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

98B.INVEST

Another Bay of Bengal invest on Tropical Tidbits. This may either get absorbed by 97B or form as another tropical disturbance. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:25, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

October

04A.LUBAN

If anyone cares about the other side of the world... a new invest has popped up near India in the Arabian Sea, code yellow on JTWC and "high" chance for 72+ hours on RSMC New Delhi's page. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:19, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Now code orange on JTWC. Likely to become "Luban" and be potentially significant in the long term. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:56, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Depression ARB 04

Now a depression according to the IMD. Also, on the topic of basins that nobody cares about, there was a tropical storm, named Liua, in the South Pacific that appears to have completely flown under the radar here. Acccording to Wikipedia, it is the earliest forming named storm on record there. Send Help Please (talk) 18:49, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 04

Yet another Arabian Peninsula threat here... will this be named Luban? Most likely. BTW, I actually I put Liua in the Southern Hemisphere page, but I forgot to update it though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:47, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Luban

And 04A is now a cyclonic storm. Forecast to affect Oman/Yemen. This is somewhat a weaker repeat of Chapala/Megh, but Luban will pass north of Socotra this time. JTWC forecast expects Luban to peak at 75 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:24, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Yep, it reminds me of a weaker version of those two storms. It's headed for a landfall in Yemen, probably west of Mukalla. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:32, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Luban

Now a severe cyclonic storm.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   21:06, October 09, 2018 (UTC) 

(Edit conflict) Current 1 minute sustained winds are at 65 mph with a central pressure of 992 mb. Currently forecast to peak at around 90 mph. Send Help Please (talk) 21:16, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Luban

While all eyes are on Michael, we have another intensifying storm in the other side of the world. I hope Luban won't be that bad for Yemen and Oman. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:02, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Now expected to landfall in eastern Yemen. Considering how impoverished the region is, this might be a bad storm (let's all hope it won't be). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:30, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Luban (2nd time)

Down to cyclonic storm strength as it closes in on Yemen. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:05, October 14, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Luban

If anyone cares, Luban has died out. Impacts are not released yet but hoping it wasn't bad there. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:28, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

06B.TITLI

90B.INVEST

Went unnoticed for a few days, but was invested as 90B according to JTWC. Like Luban, it also did not appear on Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:07, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Depression BOB 08

TCFA issued bt JTWC, but this system is already considered by the IMD as a depression. With the Pacific currently largely dormant (except for Sergio, of course), the Atlantic and the NIO are currently stealing the spotlight. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:07, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 08

It seems a bit weird for there to be plenty of NIO activity but a completely dormant WPac, don't you think? Michael in the Atlantic is surely the one stealing almost ALL the spotlight at the moment due to its threat to the Florida Panhandle. Back on topic, BOB 08 is now a deep depression and looks like it'll hit India and strengthen to a cyclonic storm (the name "Titli" is next). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:37, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Titli

And it has been upgraded to a cyclonic storm. Forecast to stay just below C1 status. May become a deadly rainfall event for India though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:05, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Titli

Like Luban, Titli is also a Cat 1-equivalent cyclone now, and a VSCS on IMD's/NIO scale. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:03, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Titli (2nd time)

Weakened back to a cyclonic storm as it moves into India. Unfortunately, this looks like it could be a very bad storm. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:27, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Titli

Dissipated nearly 2 days ago. Eight people are reported to have died because of this storm, but apparently damage caused by Titli was not that severe. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:25, October 13, 2018 (UTC)