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Current Systems: TROPICAL CYCLONE OWEN


This is the forum page for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

  • Please sign your comments using four tildes (~~~~). Place comments that start a new topic at the bottom of the page and give them a descriptive header.
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Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, July, August-September, October-November
Storm Event Archives:Florence, Michael

Other Basin Talkpages (2018): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

The Hall of Fame returns

Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

December

In the event we get a post season surprise... Ryan1000 12:33, December 1, 2018 (UTC)

I'm holding out hope for another subtropical storm to cap off the year. It'd only be proper. Send Help Please (talk) 02:15, December 3, 2018 (UTC)
Or two for an even harder to break record. YellowSkarmory (talk) 04:26, December 4, 2018 (UTC)

Farewell

Unless we get a post-season surprise in December, with nothing expected to form in the next three days in the Atlantic, it's safe to say the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has likely reached its end for good.

That being said, this year's hurricane season produced more than what we bargained for, with well below-average pre-September activity, but once September and October got rolling, we got a lot more than what was initially forecast, with over 126 ACE units, 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes, all of which were above most of the forecasts for the season, though the number of major hurricanes was within the predicted range, with two. Unfortunately, those two major hurricanes (Florence and Michael) both hit the U.S. as formidable storms, and caused serious damage where they struck. That aside, this year also produced Leslie, which became a rare long-tracker in the North Atlantic eventually causing flooding in Europe, a record number of storms that were subtropical at some point, and Alberto tying a record for consecutive years with pre-season storms (which could be broken if next year produces another one). In any instance, List 4 is starting to redeem its notability somewhat, as this is the second consecutive usage of this naming list to be a very destructive season for the U.S, though even if Florence and Michael get retired, list 4 would still have the fewest retired names out of all the Atlantic naming lists since 1979, with 6 total. Lists 1 and 6 are tied for 10 each, lists 2 and 3 are tied for 12 each, and list 5 (next year's list) has the record, with 13, which may likely be extended further depending on what next year brings us. Ryan1000 23:05, November 27, 2018 (UTC)

The NHC couple of minutes ago just released their last regularly Tropical Weather Outlook for the 2018 AHS. What a year this was. This season exceeded beyond expectations regarding predictions released by many meteorological agencies. Just like the previous years, this season will be most remembered by 2 hurricanes that hit the US and changed the lives of thousands. In addition to that, this season will also be remembered by everything what Ryan mentioned: record amounts of subtropical storms, 4th consecutive season to see a pre-season storm, etc. In the spring of 2019, I do expect the names Florence and Michael to be retired into Atlantic hurricane history, and I'm sure the rest of you agrees with me. What a year!  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   23:55, November 30, 2018 (UTC) 
2018 completely surprised me. In June, it looked like we were going to see one of the least active seasons on record, and I was almost fully convinced we would see less than 10 storms. But since El Nino held off, 2018 managed to be fairly active, albeit a bit on the weak side. All of the subtropical storms caught me off guard (especially in August), although I don't think something like this will happen next year. I noticed 2018's most damaging hurricanes struck areas missed by last year's storms (notably, the east coast), so here's to the U.S catching a break next year. But this recent trend has me worried. But for now, the Atlantic seems closed off until the next season. I must say, wow, 2018. - PORYGONAL 16:44, December 4, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

I added this section, as we are already well into the season despite the fact that only 3 storms have formed so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's Atlantic retirement forecast

  • Alberto - 5% - Caused disruption, but nothing significant really.
  • Beryl - 5% - A spectacle, regenerated a la Harvey, scared Maria-battered Puerto Rico, yet only inflicted minimal damage.
  • Chris - 2% - 2% for being a Category 2 in the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic, but other than that... nothing notable.
  • Debby - 0.1% - Yeah, I gave that .1 for forming in cool waters. But no, Debby will definitely return in 2024.
  • Ernesto - 0.2% - Debby 2.0. I only gave that 0.2 percent due to the fact that Ernesto lasted longer than Debby. However, Ernesto will most likely return in 2024.
  • Florence - 100% - Let the flood damage in The Carolinas speak for itself. Sixth costliest Atlantic hurricane on record; there is no way for Florence to dodge retirement.
  • Gordon - 3% - Affected land but did not cause a lot of damage.
  • Helene - 2% - Caused 3 deaths as an extratropical system in UK, but impacts are negligible.
  • Isaac - 1.5% - Guess the "I" curse gave way for the "M" curse this year; Isaac will be back in 2024. Minor impacts reported but not enough to merit retirement.
  • Joyce - 0.25% - That 0.25% is purely a consolation, as Joyce became the 5th subtropical storm of the season (although eventually became tropical).
  • Kirk - 0% - Let's be real, this is a forgettable storm.
  • Leslie - TBD - Lengthy Lingering Leslie is basically Never Say Die Nadine 2012's successor. Let's see whether Leslie will eventually affect land.
  • Michael - 100% - Still active but will definitely get axed in spring.
  • Nadine - TBD - May not be as strong and long-lasting as the 2012 one, but became a strong TS. Also has a small chance to merge with Leslie (lowkey hoping for it).

That's all for now.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:13, October 11, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's retirement home

  • alby (5%) : "lolololol florida i'm gonna destroy you like irma" -was a subtropical storm-
  • bez (2%) : "weeeeeee i'm a baby hurricane i am gonna weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
  • chris (0%) : "look at me i can pull stunts like the chris-tal ball in 2014 and i can be better than him haha"
  • debby (-420%) : hell naw
  • anesuto (clannad%) : i didn't feel anything from this f-cker as he went past the uk LOL!
  • flossie (∞%) : OF COURSE THIS B-TCH BE GOING. WORSE THAN THAT F-CKER FLOYD WHO HIT HIMSELF LIKE A THROWN BRICK ON NC'S SEAWALL. BE GONE THOT. GOODBYE TO YOU AND YOUR TWISTED MACHINE YOU HURRICANE DRUNK THOT
  • gordon (5%) : ramsay's mouth was the gulf coast and he thinks the taste of clouds is too bland to warrant a retirement
  • helene (0%) : i literally flew into helene and ali upon return from germany, plus when i was in spain i got a bit of her lightning, and saw some sh-tty surf from the nw portuguese coast. dindunuffin.
  • i suck (0%) : lol no
  • joyce (0%) : ur mom lole

yare yare daze (talk) 17:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Steve's predictions and grades

See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, 200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%, 100% or TBA

Grading colors: EO+, EO, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA


Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

  • Alberto:
    • Retirement: 8% - Just $125 million in damage and 18 deaths should not convince the U.S. to give Alberto the boot. This is nothing compared to very bad storms America experienced in the past, such as Harvey or Katrina. Usually, retirements in the U.S. have a damage bill of at least $1 billion.
    • Grading: D - Some credit given for its pre-season formation. However, the fact that it remained subtropical for almost its whole life (through peak intensity and landfall) prevents the grade from being higher than this.
  • Beryl:
    • Retirement: 1% - The relatively light impacts it caused were in-between lives as a remnant low. The regions it impacted have seen much worse last year. Even the hardest-hit regions (like the Dominican Republic) have seen much worse in the past.
    • Grading: B - The grade is boosted for its rapid intensification in the MDR so early in the year, and for being the first "Hurricane Beryl" ever. As a bonus, it briefly regenerated east of the East Coast. However, its small size meant it had potential to get even stronger in the MDR.
  • Chris:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - It did cause a death due to rough seas and impacted Canada as an extratropical system. That isn't enough to even think about retirement though.
    • Grading: B - Did a nice job at the C2 part.
  • Debby:
    • Retirement: 0% - Completely out to sea.
    • Grading: F - Stole a name off the list, but I have to say it performed better than I expected (by reaching 50 mph).
  • Ernesto:
    • Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts it ever caused were in the UK and Ireland as a post-tropical system. It was a complete fishspinner while tropical. That certainly won't ever earn it retirement.
    • Grading: F - Although it was weaker than Debby, it stayed tropical unusually far north.
  • FLORENCE:
    • RETIREMENT: 100% - FLORENCE WILL BE GONE BECAUSE OF ITS CATASTROPHIC EAST COAST DEVASTATION. DAMAGES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST $16.7 BILLION SO FAR, WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A CERTAIN RETIREMENT, AND IT WAS QUITE DEADLY TOO. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THIS WILL BE SNUBBED. SAY GOODBYE TO THE FINAL ORIGINAL "F" NAME AND THE LONGEST LASTING ATLANTIC NAME ON RECORD (FIRST USED IN 1953).
    • GRADING: A - WOW, WHAT AN AMAZING LONG-LIVED STORM THAT EVEN RI'D IN THE FACE OF MARGINAL CONDITIONS EARLIER IN ITS LIFESPAN. UNFORTUNATELY, THE IMPACTS TO THE U.S. KNOCK THE GRADE DOWN QUITE A BIT.
  • Gordon:
    • Retirement: 10% - So far, it killed 3 people which is much less than Alberto. Damages are at least $250 million, which by U.S. standards, is not really enough for retirement.
    • Grading: D - Became a strong tropical storm, near hurricane strength. The fact that it peaked just under hurricane strength isn't a big deal considering how it was threatening the Gulf Coast.
  • Helene:
    • Retirement: 3% - Hit the Cape Verdes and the Azores, and later on Great Britain as an extratropical system, but I highly doubt impacts were severe enough to even consider retirement. Unfortunately, it caused 3 deaths.
    • Grading: C+ - It got very close to hitting major status, but unfortunately flunked it. But this wasn't expected to get very powerful anyway.
  • Isaac:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - Any impacts in the Windward Islands were meager.
    • Grading: D - Fell below initial expectations, but at least it still became a hurricane.
  • Joyce:
    • Retirement: 0% - If excluding any very meager impacts in the Azores, this was a complete fishspinner. Joyce has no choice but to return in 2024.
    • Grading: F - Another fail like Debby and Ernesto earlier this year.
  • Eleven:
    • Retirement: N/A - no name
    • Grading: Z - Pathetic flop that developed too late. But let's be glad a name wasn't stolen.
  • Kirk:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - Was not too bad, a re-Isaac for the Windwards.
    • Grading: E - Gets points for regenerating and peaking at 60 mph in its second life.
  • Leslie:
    • Retirement: 36% - Caused 16 deaths (mostly from a flash flood in France) and at least $346.5 million in damages. There's an outside chance that France, Portugal, or Spain will request the name especially due to its rarity.
    • Grading: EO - Woah what a storm. First started as yet another subtropical system, became extratropical and regained tropical characteristics, became a hurricane 2 separate times (or even 3 if counting the storm being at hurricane strength while initially extratropical), and then became a very rare instance of a tropical system impacting Madeira and Portugal. Among its records: first TS alerts for Madeira in recorded history and the 10th longest-lived TC ever. Not to mention her extremely weird track.
  • MICHAEL:
    • RETIREMENT: 100% - INSANELY POWERFUL LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CAUSING MASSIVE DEVASTATION TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL TOWNS SUCH AS MEXICO BEACH. FATALITY COUNT 54 AS OF NOW, HOPEFULLY IT DOESN'T RISE ANY FURTHER. DAMAGES ARE AT LEAST $11.2 BILLION, ENOUGH FOR A CERTAIN RETIREMENT. TO SUMMARIZE IT UP, THIS SCUMBAG IS ABSOLUTELY NOT HAVING HIS NAME RETURN IN 2024.
    • GRADING: A- - A POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT WOULD HAVE GOTTEN A BETTER GRADE IF NOT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRIKE & ASSOCIATED DEVASTATION.
  • Nadine:
    • Retirement: 0% - A complete fishie.
    • Grading: D+ - Gets some credit for trying, at least it wasn't an epic fail. Not to mention it was the easternmost named storm for so late in the year.
  • Oscar:
    • Retirement: 0% - Same reason as Nadine.
    • Grading: C+ - Exceeded initial expectations by becoming a C2, but unfortunately wasn't a major.

Notes: Intensity colors -

  • Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
  • I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
  • I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -

  • "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
  • "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
  • 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
  • New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
  • Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -

  • EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
  • Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
  • Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:20, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 03:50, November 1, 2018 (UTC))

TG's Retirement Predictions

Welcome to my fourth annual retirement prediction, the first year that I have dropped the colors since 2015. This year I will just make it simple and easy, without it taking 5 minutes to get the right color for each storm.

  • Alberto - 10%: 10% might be a little too high, but Alberto is definitely not worthy of retirement.
  • Beryl - 0%: I seriously think this storm is overrated, to be honest. It didn't do much, and it was a classic weak MDR cyclone that occasionally happen on the edge of the MDR.
  • Chris - 1%: Chris killed one person, unfortunately, but it won't be enough for a retirement. Classic subtropics hurricane. TG 2018 17:00, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
  • Debby - 0%: This one is definitely coming back.
  • Ernesto - 0%: Same as Debby
  • Florence - 100%: Yeah ok, bye Florence. (Replacement picks: Frieda, Fern, Faith, Felicity)
  • Gordon - 20%: Gordon is not going, but it does need some recognition for the $250 million in damages it caused.
  • Helene - 1%: Produced damage to mostly just the UK, where it was relatively minor.
  • Isaac - 0%: Not too interesting of a storm, plus no impacts means it is staying for 2024.
  • Joyce - 0%: Same as Debby.
  • Kirk - 0%: Same as Debby.
  • Leslie - 5%: Umm, ok. This one was really really interesting. It began as a very brief subtropical storm, but did not regenerate until a few days later. At that point it was just looping around until it hit Portugal as an extra-tropical cyclone and then moved into the Mediterranean. Even this one was weirder than Vince, to be honest.
  • Michael - 100%: Panhandle's Andrew. Not much else to say. (Retirement picks: Mason, Malcolm, Mark, Marcus)
  • Nadine - 0%: An MDR fail that did not affect any land. It's coming back in 2024 TG 2018 18:24, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements

Adding mine too. Color scheme is up for the second straight year.

Grades: A, B, C, D, E, F. These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%.

  • Alberto – grade A, retirement 15%. Early surprise to maintain a 4-year streak of preseason storms. Bonus points for transitioning to a tropical cyclone inland and surviving as far north as Michigan. Retirement is unlikely, however.
  • Beryl – grade A, retirement 5%. Cute little midget MDR hurricane. Even managed to hang on and have a second stint as a subtropical storm. Simply amazing.
  • Chris – grade C, retirement 5%. Decent fish, unfortunately one death.
  • Debby – grade F, retirement 0%. "Debby" shouldn't have gone to this name thief.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 10:07, August 10, 2018 (UTC).

Roy's Retirement Prediction

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ???


  • Alberto (17%) - A pre-season storm that continued the streak of years with pre-season storms, and transitioned to a tropical cyclone over Tennessee and made it as far as Michigan. It did some millions of damage and a couple of deaths, but the US won't retire this name
  • Beryl (0.001%) - A small hurricane in the MDR that became the first ever Hurricane Beryl. This won't be retired, but a little bit greater than 0% due to its effect on land while post-tropical
  • Chris (1%) - A C2 that didn't really affect land other than claiming one live, but even that won't retire Chris
  • Debby (0%) - Weak storm that stayed out to sea
  • Ernesto (0%) - Same as Debby, but did stay tropical really far north
  • FLORENCE (100%) - A long lasting storm that devastated the Carolinas, and caused an estimated $17 billion as well as claiming 40 lives so far. Say good-bye to the last remaining original "F" name in the Atlantic.
  • Gordon (1%) - A relatively quick storm that almost became a hurricane, but only caused 2 deaths as of now.
  • Helene (0.01%) - A nice storm that originally threatened the Azores but hadn't. Only claimed 3 lives.
  • Isaac (0.001%) - A small storm that did nothing tot he Lesser Antilles, and claimed no lives
  • Joyce (0%) - Pretty much a weak fish
  • Kirk (0.001%) - A pretty weak storm that impacted the Leeward Islands at the end of it's life, but other than that, nothing
  • Leslie (0.001%) - Oh boy, what a long-lived storm. Barely affected land, and stayed out in sea for most of its live, and generated a lot of ACE for the season.
  • MICHAEL (100%) - This storm was the third most intense storm ever to hit the US, and the strongest to hit the Florida Panhandle. Absolutely demolished Mexico Beach and Panama City, the former of which was on the bull's-eye of Michael, and from what I've heard, both places were described as a "war-zone" in the aftermath of Michael. This name is so getting that kick next spring.
  • Nadine (0%) - Compared to its 2012 incarnation, this was weak, but it did managed to peak at 65 mph in the face of strong shear.
  • Oscar (0%) - A moderately strong hurricane that stayed out to sea. Would be even better if it managed to be a major hurricane though.

NOTE:

  1. Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
  2. The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
  3. Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 17:49, August 08, 2018 (UTC) Last updated on 19:25, November 11, 2018 (UTC)

Lee’s retirements and ratings

We’ve had only 4 systems, but it is August, so I might as well start this.

Update: Decided to start rating systems based on their performance, because I’m bored at work while on my break and also because, why not :P? I will rate them on a scale of whole numbers from 1-10, no decimal ratings, and a storm that causes significant impacts to land, no matter how strong it is, will never be given a 10/10, unless said storm were to pull a Patricia, and weaken before landfall. A 10 is only reserved for an amazing storm that stays out to sea (eg. long lasting storms, or fish-spinning Cat 5’s), I’ll also provide summaries as to why each storm received it’s rating, unless I can’t think of anything to write.

  • Alberto- 10%: Caused 12 deaths, and some impacts, but I don’t see him going anywhere. Rating: 5/10. 4th consecutive year that a storm formed in May, and was fun to track. I’ll put it halfway on the rankings.
  • Beryl- 2%: First ever Hurricane Beryl, and it came in the form of a cute little mini-hurricane. Did cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico and other areas recovering from Irma and Maria from last year, but thankfully wasn’t too bad and caused no fatalities. Rating: 10/10- Already the first 10 of the year. One of the smallest hurricanes on record, didn’t cause any significant impacts, and was the first hurricane to be named Beryl. Normally, I wouldn’t give Category 1s a 10/10, unless they last a long time, but with Beryl I just couldn’t help myself
  • Chris- 3%: Did cause some impacts in Newfoundland, and unfortunately one death. Not enough for retirement though. Rating: 7/10- Just for defying my expectations. Although, I’m not giving decimal ratings, I consider Chris a high 7. It probably would have gotten an 8 if not for the death it caused.
  • Debby- 0%: Nope. Rating: 2/10- No, actually I was right the first time, Debby was stronger, and managed to reach 50 mph despite it‘s location. Screw it, I’m giving Debby and Ernesto 2s.
  • Ernesto- 0%: Ditto. Rating: 2/10- Basically just imitated Debby, but was weaker. Edit: Raised the rating, because I forgot about Ernie’s persistence to stay alive.
  • Florence- 100%: Damages potentially well over $20 billion, 41 deaths so far. Our last original F name is definitely gone after this year. (Replacement names: Fern, Frieda, Faith.) Rating: 9/10- Defied initial forecasts, was powerful, and quite long lasting. Had she recurved and decided to stay out to sea, Florence would have been a 10/10, no question. Unfortunately, she just had to go and hit land.
  • Gordon- 5%: 3 deaths and quite a bit of flooding, but I don’t see him going anywhere. Rating 6/10- Decent enough storm, and like Chris, I consider it high on his particular rating. Gordon did cause 3 deaths, though, so it gets knocked down from being a 7. However, it could potentially be reranked as a 7, if it’s upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis.
  • Helene- 5%: 3 deaths from the precursor wave, I expect it to stay. 7/10- Not much to really say about Helene.
  • Isaac- 0%: Unlike the last original F name, our last original I name won’t be going anywhere, even though he probably should have been retired in 2012. Rating: 5/10- Just because it became a hurricane and didn’t do any significant damage
  • Joyce- 0%: Didn’t do any harm. Rating: 5/10
  • Kirk- 0%: Didn’t live long or prosper, until it came back from the dead. Rating: 6/10- The retirement chances quote also applies to the rating.
  • Lingering Leslie- 20%: Well, I’ve been so busy looking over damages and other things from the aftermath of Michael, as well as personal life, that I haven’t really checked any of the other storms. Sadly, Leslie wasn’t as harmless as I thought. Leslie ended up causing 16 deaths in France and Portugal. Normally, I’d give Leslie a smaller chance (maybe around 5%), but since these are areas where tropical cyclone deaths are unprecedented, I’m giving Leslie a 20% chance of being retired, since France has been unpredictable with retirements for Martinique in the past (Klaus 1990). Rating 10/10: Despite the deaths, since Leslie was such a notable system, the rating will stay 10/10.
  • Michael- 100%: With Michael being the third most intense hurricane to make landfall in the US, and with some of the damage photos I’ve seen from it, Michael is definitely gone after this year. Outside of the US, 9 fatalities were caused by the storm in Central America. The Florida Panhandle has never seen a storm of this magnitude before. Michael is very likely costlier than Hurricane Ivan was in the Panhandle, and therefore will likely be the costliest hurricane on record in this part of Florida. The areas around Michael’s landfall are disaster areas now, lots of people are missing, and the death count will likely continue to rise. I feel that the damage in Mexico City alone could justify retirement, and Michael will, without question, be out after this year. (Replacement choices: Marcel, Mark or Marcus, Mason) Rating: 9/10- Very intense storm that would be nice to track if it stayed out to sea.
  • Nadine- 0%: Nada, although I will say she put in a good effort to become a hurricane, but fell short. Rating: 3/10- Like Kirk, that retirement quote also applies to the rating.
  • Oscar- 0%: Just a fishie. Rating: 5/10

Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:54, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Grade colors: S, A+, A, A-, B, C, D, E, F, Failippe

Note: Impact to land has no affect on grade, aside from S rank, which is reserved for fishspinners.


  • Alberto: Grade: C - Retirement: 10% - Neat little pre-season surprise that went tropical inland and continued the pre-season storm streak that has been going since 2015. Gets 10% for around $125 million in damage and 12 total deaths.
  • Beryl: Grade: B - Retirement: 1% - We finally got a Hurricane Beryl, in the form of an adorable little mini-cane that (mostly) spared the areas that were mauled last season. Bonus points for surprise regen though it was short lived.
  • Chris: Grade: C - Retirement: 2% - Gert 2.0
  • Debby: Grade: F - Retirement: lol no % - Nothing too notable about this one, aside from it starting this year's nrothern latitude subtropical storm trend.
  • Ernesto: Grade: E - Retirement: 0% - Basically Debby 2.0, but gains points for resilience.
  • FLORENCE: Grade: A - Retirement: 100% - Early in her life, she looked to be an impressive fishspinner that RI'd ito a Cat. 4 in only marginal conditions. This was not to be her legacy though, as she would then make landfall in North Carolina and slow to a crawl a la Harvey. She then proceeded break rainfall records in both North and South Carolina, turn Wilmington into an island for a few days, cause at least 38 billion dollars in damage and kill over 50 people. After this season, she's gone, no doubt about it.
  • Gordon: Grade: E - Retirement: 5% - Almost reached hurricane status, but hit land before he could. Impacts were not that bad aside from the two deaths, which is why I'm giving him a lower retirement chance than Alberto.
  • Helene: Grade: B - Retirement: 3% - Got a bit stonger than expected, didn't do much other than cause the deaths of 3 people.
  • Isaac: Grade: D - Retirement: 1% - Unremarkable MDR Cat 1, didn't have the cuteness or regen bonus of Beryl.
  • Eleven: Grade: F - Retirement: N/A - I honestly forgot about it's existence from a few days after it formed to the time of me typing this. That goes to show how forgettable this system was. At least it didn't steal a name.
  • Joyce: Grade: F - Retirement: 0% - Yet another northern latitude subtropical storm.
  • Kirk: Grade: E - Retirement: 1% - Saved from F rank by the regen, didn't do much in the Caribbean.
  • Leslie: Grade: A+ - Retirement: 15% - My current favorite storm from the Atlantic this year, and the undisputed best of the 2018 Subtropical Crew. Her drunken tour of the northern Atlantic, complete with a regen, tropical transition, obtaining of hurricane status, and approach to Portugal of all places, was an absolute blast to watch. Unfortunately, that approach to Portugal (and France) was no joke, as 16 deaths and over $300 million in damages gave been reported so far due to her extratropical impacts. Nevertheless, great job Leslie! I look foward to seeing what you have in store for 2024, as long as it's out to sea.
  • MICHAEL: Grade: A+ - Retirement: 100% - Absolutely blew intensity forecasts out of the water, coming just a hair shy of Category 5 status. Unfortunately. he had go and make landfall at this incredible intensity, reducing areas in the landfall area to rubble and causing 8.1 billion dollars in damage (as of right now, the final damage total will probably be much higher). Worst of all, many people, as many 285 in Mexico Beach alone, chose to stay and ride out the storm, and, well, it would take a miracle to survive this . Michael's impacts in Central America and Cuba cannot go unstated either, with him causing 15 deaths in the former region. Michael is gone after this season, no question.
  • Nadine: Grade: E - Retirement: 0% - Hit 65 mph againt expectations, so she wasn't a complete failure. Still nothing compared to her 2012 incarnation though.
  • Oscar: Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.

Will be added on to as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances

  • Tropical Storm Alberto - 0.5% : Became tropical over land became tropical over water, caused some damage and, sadly, deaths.
  • Category 1 Beryl - 0% : First HURRICANE Beryl ever, did nothing.
  • Category 2 Chris - 0.01 % : Did nothing but take the life of 1, sadly.
  • Tropical Storm Failby - 0% : A fail, but at least it became a named storm.
  • Tropical Storm Failnesto - 0% : Another fail, the Atlantic storms this year seem to like the water up north for some reason.
  • Category 4 Florence - Bye% : Mass flooding in the Carolinas, more than $10,000,000,000 in damage, and 53 deaths (as of 10/23/2018). Bye, Florence.
  • Tropical Storm Gordon - 0.5% : Did some things to the gulf coast, sadly taking the lives of two.
  • Category 2 Helene - 0% : Almost became a major hurricane and is forecast to affect the Azores Islands.
  • Category 1 Isaac - 0.000000000000000001% : Weak hurricane that did stuff to the Caribbean islands. I highly doubt this will get retired.
  • Tropical Storm Joyfail - 0% : Why did this fail even exist...
  • Tropical Storm Kirk - 0% : Will affect the Caribbean later on.
  • Category 1 Leslie - 0% : And it's finally about to become extratropical...
  • Category 4 Michael - Away% : Will be retired. Bye, Michael.
  • Tropical Storm Faildine - 0% : Did nothing but spin fish.
  • Category 2 Oscar - 0% : Did nothing but spin fish.

Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:01, August 15, 2018 (UTC) Updated November 18, 2018.

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

Never thought this year's AHS would kick up as fast as it did...it's a shame that we got a severe storm for the U.S. this year, after last year. For now, though:

  • Alberto - 10% - Made 2018 the fourth consecutive AHS to start early, and was the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to do so as well. But with 125 million in damage and 12 deaths, I have to give him some credit for impact.
  • Beryl - 1% - Defied expectations and became a tiny hurricane in the open Atlantic and came back later on as a subtropical storm, but Bery's effects on land were minimal at most.
  • Chris - 1% - Killed a person from rip currents and caused some minor damage in Newfoundland. Nothing too much.
  • Debby - 0% - Shortest-lived and weakest storm of the season. Fail.
  • Ernesto - 0% - Debby 2.0.
  • Florence - 100% - Caused catastrophic flooding in North Carolina that ranks Florence 8th among the top 10 wettest tropical cyclones in U.S. history. The damage totals in North Carolina were recently nerfed considerably, to around 16-17 billion dollars, much less than the earlier estimates of 38-45 billion, but still, that's enough for Florence to be retired.
  • Gordon - 15% - Killed at least 2 people, with moderate to extensive damage, more than Alberto, but not enough to retire it.
  • Helene - 2% - Precursor wave killed 3 people, with some minor effects in Cape Verde and the Azores, but nothing else.
  • Isaac - 1% - Effects were minor and he will come back in 2024. Our last original "I" retired name will have to wait for some other day.
  • Joyce - 0% - Didn't even affect the Azores...so see you in 6 years.
  • Kirk - 1% - Passed through the Lessers as a minor TS, but with little impacts, like Isaac and Beryl.
  • Leslie - 31% - Made a rare landfall on the Iberian Peninsula as an extratropical storm, with almost 350 million in damage and 15 people killed. It might, or might not, be retired. We'll see.
  • Michael - 100% - Almost completely destroyed Panama City, Mexico Beach, and surrounding areas on the Florida Panhandle as a massive, 155 mph category 4 monster storm. Damages are currently projected at approximately 11 billion dollars and more than 50 people were killed, mostly in Florida, so there's absolutely no way Michael won't be retired.
  • Nadine - 0% - Nada Nadine. See you in 2024.
  • Oscar - 0% - Made up for his 2012 fail, but Oscar still didn't affect land, so, like Nadine, see you in 2024.

That's it...for now. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)

Retirement predictions from Nut

Not a regular user here, but since we're well into the peak of the season and the fact that the Atlantic has shot up in activity, I'll do my retirements.

  • Alberto - 15% - A pre-season storm (fourth consecutive one) that only did minor damage in the Gulf Coast. Impressed that the Atlantic can crank up another pre-season storm. The Atlantic will fail after 2018.
  • Beryl - 1% - Can't imagine retirement as impacts were negligible. Its intensification to a hurricane was impressive given cool waters in the MDR and it also defied initial forecasts.
  • Chris - 2.5% - Minimal impacts overall which killed a person thanks to its rip currents.
  • Debby - 0% - An unusual storm that formed far north, a borderline fail but not exactly a fail due to its formation location and its (initially) low chance of formation which I predicted was not going to form.
  • Ernesto - 1% - Unlike others, I'm not calling this a fail as it stayed tropical unusually far north. Minimal damages (if any) equal no retirement unless the Daily Express gets its hands on the retirement system.
  • Florence - 100% - Damages over $10 billion immediately warrant retirement, it was worse than Floyd 1999 (although less deadlier) and it had damages rivalling Ike 2008 at one point (now lowered). Despite it looking impressive in satellite imagery and its two intensification periods to C4, this will go.
  • Gordon - 5% - Near hurricane that hit land before it had to chance to become one. I kinda wish it became a hurricane, maybe it'll receive the Cindy 2005 treatment post-analysis. But then again, why would I wish hurricane intensity over a storm that poses a minor threat to land.
  • Helene - 1% - She did nothing in the UK and if every weather warning issued by the Met Office was cancelled when her extratropical remnants arrived then she won't be going.
  • Isaac - 0.5% - Didn't do much to the Leeward/Windward Islands and it was only a weaker version of Beryl's first lifespan as a tropical system. It also died out in the Caribbean as strong shear seems to dominate the central Caribbean sea for much of this year (and 2017).
  • Joyce - 0% - It may have made 2018 the first season since 2008 to see four consecutive systems, but it was only tiny and was just a fish at sea.
  • Eleven - N/A - A non-name stealing system which was succumbed to strong shear for much of its life.
  • Kirk - 0.5% - Little differences between this and Joyce, however it was slightly stronger and it regenerated once in its lifetime. Did very little to St Lucia.
  • Leslie - 1% - Long lived erratic hurricane which was kinda like Vince near the end of its lifespan. Shame it had no tropical landfall but she has merit for prompting the Madeira government to issue TS warnings for the first time in the country. Her extratropical self has sadly killed 16 and damage estimates are currently over $300 million, but she won't be going as neither Spain and Portugal are in the RA IV HC.
  • Michael - 99% - Ok, I put this at 99% for a really stupid reason and that is, it has the (very) slim chance of a snub as I think their retirement standards could be upped due to inflation, but anyway this will go. Strongest US landfall since Camille warrants it, it also killed 60 and it basically wiped out the Panama City coastline.
  • Nadine - 0% - Another fishie equals no retirement. Was slightly stronger than Kirk though.
  • Oscar - TBC - He hasn't affected any landmasses thus far, although he could warrant minor damage as he approaches the British Isles.

Nutfield001 (talk) 16:32, September 11, 2018 (UTC) (Last updated 23:07, October 30, 2018 (UTC))

Isaac's Oversimplified Predictions

  • Florence - 100% - Flooding still happening, but the damage will be in the billions.
  • Isaac - No.
  • Michael - 100% - Panhandle's Andrew.
  • Any other names - 0%

--Isaac829E-Mail 01:48, October 12, 2018 (UTC)

Retirement Chances from Owen

  • Alberto - 1% - Caused roughly $125 million worth in damages in the southeastern United States gives him credit where it's due but history tells us he will remain on the naming list. 
  • Beryl - 0% - A true defier of every forecast and the second earliest MDR hurricane on record, but she's going to stay because of the lack of major affects. 
  • Chris - 0% - A hurricane, which did impressed many and attained C2, that didn't really do anything notable enough to warrant retirement. 
  • Debby - 0% - Not a chance in hell. 
  • Ernesto - 0% - See Debby.
  • Florence - 100% - I was the first to write here previously about the report from Moody's Analytics that Hurricane Florence damages ranged anywhere from $17-22 billion. It now appears that damage is more excessive than originally anticipated and if true , places as Florence the seventh costliest hurricane in United States history. Even if the damages are closer to the previous report, it's extremely likely the U.S. will request the retirement of the name. Accordingly, I can now say it's safe to assume retirement will certainly occur. Goodbye Florence(Replacement picks: Faith, Frieda, and Fern)
  • Gordon - 1% - Like Alberto, he fortunately, didn't really cause significant damages. 
  • Helene - 1% - Wrought some minimal effects on Cabo Verde and Azores, and tried to throw on a show in the eastern Atlantic leading to her just barely missing out on major hurricane status. 
  • Isaac - 1% - He lasted a bit longer than I expected him to and was one of three simultaneous hurricanes, so credit is due there, but it looks like Isaac is coming back in 2024. 
  • Joyce - 0% - See Debby and Ernesto. 
  • Kirk - 0% - I give him credit for being able to regenerate and become a moderate tropical storm, but it doesn't look like he did much in terms of impact in the Lesser Antilles. 
  • Leslie - 25% - Leslie was a headache for forecasters, she brought forth some significant effects in Portugal, Spain and France. With an estimated ~>$346.5 million USD in damages, there is the outside chance that France could pull a wild card like they did with Klaus and put Leslie in retirement. (Replacement picks: Lucy, Leah, Layla)
  • Michael - 100% - The third most intense hurricane to ever strike the United States will not be returning to the naming lists in 2024. Goodbye Michael. (Replacement picks: Marcus, Milo, and Malcolm)
  • Nadine - 0% - See Debby, Ernesto and Joyce.
  • Oscar - 0% - Managed to pull off C2 intensity, but in the end Oscar was a fish, and thus will remain on the list in 2024. 

Owen 18:13, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Beatissima's retirement predictions

  • Definitely:
    • C4 Florence - 53 dead and approaching $17 billion in damage.  Florence is retiring in a handbasket.
    • C4 Michael - Yep.  Mexico Beach is gone, and so is this name.
  • Probably: ---
  • Likely: ---
  • Maybe:
    • C1 Leslie - 16 deaths have been reported so far.  If those 16 deaths had occurred in a place where hurricanes are frequently on residents' minds, then retirement would be unlikely.  But the communities Leslie struck, until just a week ago, had never imagined losing loved ones in a tropical cyclone.  So I can see how the trauma might be great enough to prompt Portugal, France or Spain to request Leslie's retirement.
      Not to mention >$411 million in damage.
  • Unlikely:
    • TS Alberto - Sadly, the death toll has risen to 18.  But I would be more surprised to see Alberto's retirement than Leslie's, since his impacts occurred in places that have seen far worse.
  • Probably not:
    • TS Gordon
  • See you in 2024:
    • C1 Beryl
    • C2 Chris
    • TS Debby
    • TS Ernesto
    • C2 Helene
    • C1 Isaac
    • TS Joyce
    • TS Kirk
    • TS Nadine
    • C2 Oscar
  • N/A:
    • TD Eleven
  • Currently active: ---
  • Unused:
    • Patty
    • Rafael
    • Sara
    • Tony
    • Valerie
    • William
    • Greeks


Beatissima (talk) 02:45, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Skarmory's retirement predictions + grades

Grades: S, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, F-, TBD

  • Alberto - 3% - B - Shouldn't get retired, damages were over 100 million and there were some deaths though. The new TCR knocks him down a bit in grade, from A- to B, due to him not turning tropical over land. He was still cool though.
  • Beryl - 0.5% - B - No deaths and minimal damages. You'll be staying. However the regen portion was nice, and no deaths help its' grade.
  • Chris - 1% - - 1 death and minimal damages. Only reason his retirement chances are higher than Beryl is because of the death. However he was a nice little C2 in the northern atlantic.
  • Debby - 0% - F -  Fishspinner that did nothing except turn tropical.
  • Ernesto - 0% - - Fishspinner while tropical/subtropical that also did nothing except turn tropical.
  • Florence - 100% - A- - Self-explanatory retirement chance. Devastating in the Carolinas, over 38 billion USD in damages estimated. Those damages knock it down to A-, but becoming the first major of the year and having an unusual track get it up this high. (Replacement picks: Faith, Fern)
  • Gordon - 5% - C- - 2 deaths, damages were worse than I expected though. Unlikely to be retired. Being a TS with an eye was cool though.
  • Helene - 2% - C - 3 deaths and impacts on West Africa and Cabo Verde, damages unknown but also probably not that bad. Impacted europe while extratropical but that shouldn't affect anything. Becoming a C2 was cool, the effects were not quite as cool. Barely missed major status.
  • Isaac - 0.5% - D - No deaths, minimal damages. Weak hurricane that didn't do too much gets it D rank.
  • Joyce - 0% - F - Fishspinner, just like Debby/Ernesto in that it did nothing except turn tropical.
  • Eleven - 0% - F - Can't be retired. Didn't do much of anything except form.
  • Kirk - 0.5% - D - Same as Isaac. Didn't reach hurricane strength but did regen.
  • Leslie - 30% - A+ - You were awesome to track, Leslie. Not reaching past C1/actually affecting land knocks you down to only A+, but you were great. Also, you became the 6th subtropical storm, breaking the record. 10th longest lasting too. Effects were worse than I expected though, ≥411 million USD in damage across her path and 16 deaths (though only 2 direct) could be enough to get her retired by one of the European countries. Namely, France, as the only one that could retire her. 231 million dollars of damage is estimated in France, and 14 indirect deaths. (Replacement picks: Lynn, Laurie/Lori, Louise)
  • Michael - 100% - A- - Definitely gone, but that RI was incredible, impacts knock him down to A-. If he gets upgraded to C5 in post-analysis he'll be an A. Since my last check, Michael's damages have gone up a bit, no way he gets snubbed now, upgraded his percentage to 100% as opposed to 99.5%. (Replacement picks: Mark, Mack, Mickey)
  • Nadine - 0% - D - Fishspinner that outperformed expectations.
  • Oscar - 0% - B - Hey, we got a 7th subtropical storm. Yay. Very exciting. Oscar was pretty cool though, he made it to C2, wish he had become a major though. I have one thing to say, this subtropical storm record is probably staying for a while. He was a fishie too. I wonder how fish feel about hurricanes. Alright I'm tracking off-topic, let's just wrap this up.
  • Important info: Names ≥30% get replacement picks named. Damages can affect grades negatively. 
  • YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:48, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

AnimationMaster's retirement predictions

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.9%, 1-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%

Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA



Notes:

  • Percentages/grades in italics indicate temporary ratings and would have yet to change.

AnimationMaster (Talk | Contributions) 00:30, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Jotaro predicts who's a guh fi get dem ass kick

  • Hell no yuh feeble likkle loli = everyone else who isn't extra enuff fi get mentioned
  • Maybe = dunno fam
  • Likely = leslie
  • Prepare fi get sum lashes inna yuh backside cuz yuh truly di lowest scum inna history = florence's fuck3d up machine
  • Shut up! Get outta mi face yuh stinka lil beetie bitch! Listen mi had it up to here wid dat cocky-ass mout of fi yuh alright? mi just happen to be di type of guy who takes dem yah things to heart! = michael jackson

Next time we meet, I'm gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 18:11, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Replacement names

Female "F" names (for Florence)

Since Florence caused major damage and many fatalities in North Carolina with her very heavy rains, strong surge, and locally high winds, the last original "F" name since 1979 is this season's first retirement candidate. So, what do you think will replace Florence? Here are some suggestions:

  • Faith
  • Fern
  • Fatima
  • Farrah
  • Frieda
  • Fannie
  • Fanya
  • Florita

These are some names that come to mind. Any other suggestions? Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Personally Farrah would be my favourite name to replace Florence but I do feel like Faith and Fern should be used first since they have been used previously. If I were to suggest other names they would be:
  • Fallon
  • Francesca
  • Francine
  • Fleur
  • Freya

--Whiplash (talk) 19:31, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Frida/Frieda/Freda is my favorite to replace Florence (kinda like Fred, but since Julia/Julian exist here, I think it would be a good option). Federica, Farrah and Freya are also okay with me. Fanny, Fleur, Francine and Fern are also great. Other options may be Fiore, Flavia, Filomena, Felina and Fergie (although that may remind people either of the former duchess, the former football manager or the singer/rapper). But if they are gonna apply what they did to Katrina and Rita, I think Flo would be the front runner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:06, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

The government of France requested Frances to be removed in the RA IV hurricane committee after 2004 (but Frances was destructive enough on its own merit), so names similar to Frances, like Francine, Francesca, ect probably won't be picked, if France makes another request like they did for Frances. Ryan1000 20:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Here are some more
  • Fergie
  • Fortuna
  • Fairy
  • Fina
  • Felicita

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:56, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

uhh
  • frida (this spelling only, the freida/freda spellings are minging and frida can also be used in spanish-speaking countries)
  • fabiola
  • francesca (but reminds me too much of fran, now aged 22 and regretting her drunken rampage across nc, flossie was like this b-tch, avoid bad omens!)
  • fatima (islamic name, similar to omar in 2020, #diversity)
  • faith (belch)
  • fleur (play that sax)
  • felicity
  • fanny (imagine if it hits the uk)
  • farrah (fawcett)
  • fabienne
  • frederica
  • frederike
  • fern (britton, lol)
  • fearne (cotton, better)
  • farryn
  • faelyn
  • fineena (irish name)
  • fauna
  • faustine
  • farzaneh (muslim)
  • finola (also irish)

my top pics would be frida, fanny, farrah, fabiola, fleur, fatima. --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:35, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

also why d'yall prefer the hideous spelling of freida

i need a vomit bucket right now it's frida --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

I honestly like Faith, Fatima, Farrah, Frieda, and Francine. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:54, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
BRUH it's FRIDA, not Freida! If they choose the latter spelling I NEED A FKKING VOMIT BUCKET AND TO BE SENT TO A&E ¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 12:15, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Calm it Rara. We all have different preferences of what names we like, no need to bash on others for having different opinions. As for me, Fri(e)da isn't my first pick, but it's an option nonetheless; I would like Farrah, Faith, Fleur, Fern, or Fatima. Ryan1000 12:31, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

And what Steve said is actually Frieda, not Freida. Anyway, I think Freda/Frida/Frieda is a strong candidate to replace Florence, but I am having a gut feel that they would just shorten Florence to Flo (I hope not, but it is still a possibility). Frauke may also replace Florence. Farrah, Freya and Faith are also likely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:13, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
lol! don't y'all understand that i'm not being serious and learn to take a joke? anyway frauke is cool too --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 21:59, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
As listed in my section, my top three names as replacements for Florence in order are Faith, Fern and Frieda. If I was to make a prediction based off of my gut - a form of Frieda is probably going to be the replacement. I don't see names such as Francine or Flo being selected because they are too similar to Fran and Florence, but you never know (eg. Frederic getting retired being replaced with Fabian, which in turn would also head toward retirement, only to be replaced with Fred). Owen 07:11, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Felicia, Felice, Feodora, Flannery, Fleurette. Beatissima (talk)

Felicia is already in use in the EPac (last used for an epic fail TS in 2015), so that can't be used as a replacement for Florence. Ryan1000 07:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Female "L" Names (potentially for Leslie)

While not an obvious retirement candidate like Florence and Michael, Leslie was responsible, directly or indirectly, for at least 16 deaths as well as >$347 million in damage in countries where such impacts were unprecedented. Given that, I would not be surprised if Portugal, Spain or France requested her retirement. If her name has to be replaced, here would be my suggestions:

  • Lynne (because it's my middle name :) )
  • Lindsay
  • Laurie (a throwback from the old lists)
  • Latoya
  • Lucy
  • Lucia
  • Layla
  • Ladonna
  • Leah
  • Luna

Beatissima (talk) 22:56, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

I don't really think Leslie will be retired, but in the event it is, I'd go for Lucy or Luna as a replacement name. Ryan1000 12:15, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
My picks would be Layla/Leila, Lucy/Lucia (although St. Lucia may oppose) and Louisa (although it is close to Luis, it is still quite different). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:10, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
Maybe Lucie. Or Lily, but that might be too similar to Lili. Beatissima (talk) 03:51, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
I highly doubt the retirement of Leslie, as neither Spain and Portugal are on the Hurricane Committee, but out of these I'd go for Lindsay and Luna. Nutfield001 (talk) 23:29, October 30, 2018 (UTC)
I'm going to throw Lori in there, as well as Laurel (oh god, anyone remember Yanny/Laurel?). I think Luna would be an awesome hurricane name but I just don't see it being the replacement. However, out of names that haven't been mentioned yet, Louise is probably my top front runner. Lynn seems fine too, but only Lynne was mentioned. YellowSkarmory (talk) 07:45, November 1, 2018 (UTC)
Well, if they pick "Laurel", then we'll finally have a "Y" name. ;) Beatissima (talk) 00:56, November 3, 2018 (UTC)
Lol I remember this. Anyway, if Leslie somehow gets retired, my favorite replacements are Lindsay, Laurie, Lucy, Layla, and maybe Leah. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:26, November 3, 2018 (UTC)

Male "M" names (for Michael)

Having directly struck the Panhandle of Florida as a 155 mph category 4 monster and likely annihilated Panama City, Michael is our second guaranteed retirement candidate this year. So, what do you think will replace Michael? Here are some suggestions:

  • Mark
  • Marcus
  • Macario
  • Mariano
  • Maurizio
  • Mickey
  • Moriarty
  • Merrick
  • Morris
  • Malcolm
  • Mervyn
  • Merv
  • Marcelino
  • Marley
  • Mercer
  • Merlin
  • Miles
  • Micah
  • Milo
  • Maurice
  • Mac(k)
  • Melvin
  • Marvin
  • Marshall

My personal picks would be Mark/Marcus, Miles, Morris, or Micah (for the record, I copy/pasted most of this from Andros1337's suggestions for Matthew in 2016, except Martin, which did replace Matthew). Ryan1000 00:09, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

My picks would be Marcus, Malcolm, Moriarty,  or (Bob) Marley.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:28, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
I'd like to see Mark, Marcus, Mack, Malcolm, Miles or Morris. In reality what I expect to replace Michael assuming he does get retired is something along the lines of Mack or Mickey, older names that aren't exactly the most common but decently common, fits along the theme of list 4. Mark is also a possibility. Maybe throw in Marvin/Maurice too. YellowSkarmory (talk) 03:17, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
Marcus, Morris/Maurice/Maurizio (Sarri?)/Mauricio (Pochettino?), Merlin, Marvin, Melvin. Those are my faves. But I think the replacement would be Mark, Mac(k), Mick/Mickey or Miles. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:40, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
There are a lot of good M names to choose from. My picks are Marcel, Mark/Marc(us), or Mason. I’ve seen the name Max thrown around quite a bit too for a replacement. Max would be a good name, except for the fact that it’s already in use in the Pacific, and therefore can’t replace Michael. Leeboy100Beware Michael’s Fury. 01:51, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
I would love to see Milo, Maxime, or Marlon personally. There are a lot of potential M names that could be chosen so we will just have to wait and see. --Whiplash (talk) 03:10, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

It's cool to see how the names on these lists are like time capsules from the years they were first chosen. There aren't too many people with names like Florence, Earl, Arlene or Gert anymore. I'd like to see retired names get replaced with names that are prevalent in the years they are chosen -- names that younger people can look at and go, "Hey, I have a hurricane!" There are lots of young men named Mason and Micah. I think those would be good picks. Beatissima (talk) 02:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

This is probably just me, but I really can't see "Marley" being used, and Send Help Please kind of said why. I get the feeling Jamaica would raise hell over the idea that a destructive force of nature would bear the same name as such a significant figure in their history. "Bob" was at least common enough of a name that some people can link it elsewhere. "Marley" is a little too on-the-nose. Jake52 (talk) 03:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Well, it's an option (I honestly would prefer it to be used as a Female "M" name, as it can be), though I think names like Mark/Marcus, Micah, Morris, ect should be picked first. Ryan1000 07:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Or, Misha, Malachi, Malik, Miles/Myles, Milan, Milon, Micah, Mason, Madison. Beatissima (talk) 22:19, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

Madison is a female "M" name as far as I'm concerned. My first pick (which I believe was also my first choice to replace Matthew) is Mark, followed by Myles. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:27, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
True, Madison is more commonly a female name nowadays. Which I find interesting, since I think it means “son of Matthew”. I guess that would have made it a fitting replacement for Matthew. Beatissima (talk) 23:50, October 31, 2018 (UTC)
For Michael's replacement, I'm picking Mark, Marcus, Mickey, Malcolm, Merlin, Miles, Maurice, Melvin, and Mason as my favorites. Madison sounds more female-ish to me tbh. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:28, November 3, 2018 (UTC)

Manoah or Manny? Beatissima (talk) 22:50, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

Other names

Just for fun, here is a place to discuss hypothetical replacements for names that are almost certainly not getting retired this year.

  • ALBERTO - Abner, Atticus, Abel, Alfredo, Antoine
  • BERYL - Belinda, Bettina, Berenice, Bonita, Brenda, Brianna, Brynne
  • CHRIS - Cameron, Connor, Casper, Cassander
  • DEBBY - Darla, Della, Delia, Delilah, Delanah, Docia, Deedee, Deirdre, Daphne, Desiree
  • ERNESTO - Emerson, Etienne, Eoghan, Ewen, Edgar, Eochaid
  • GORDON - Grayson, Gregory, Grigor, Guillermo, Guy, Guido
  • HELENE - Honor, Honora, Helga, Hedwig, Hope
  • ISAAC - Ives, Indy, Istvan, Ignacio, Ignatius
  • JOYCE - June, Juniper, Jasmine, Juno, Jocelyn, Jolene, Judith, Juanita, Jeannette, Jacqueline, Jill, Jillian
  • KIRK - Kurt, Kendall, Kenneth, Kaspar
  • NADINE - Nancy, Nona, Nora, Nuña/Nunia, Naia, Neve, Nadia, Natalie, Natalia, Nikki, Nini
  • OSCAR - Octavius, Orpheus, Orfeo, Othello, Osvaldo, Oswald, Osmund, Opie, Obed, Obediah, Osha

Beatissima (talk) 23:57, October 28, 2018 (UTC)

kendall is most certainly a female, most would associate with kendall jenner --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:33, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
Guillermo, Ignacio, Kenneth, and Nora are huge no-nos; all four are currently in rotation on the EPAC naming lists. Otherwise there are some really cool selections on here. Big fan of Atticus, Connor, Daphne, Helga, June, Kurt, Nancy, and Natalie in particular. Would love to see Bella or Brittany as a female B name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:07, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
Yeah, I always forget to check the EPAC list. Beatissima (talk) 04:34, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
Delilah is probably too similar to Dalila, which is on the EPAC list for 2019. Otherwise, these are pretty good suggestions. I can't decide my replacement names out of these should these names get retired at some point. Nutfield001 (talk) 23:26, October 30, 2018 (UTC)
Maybe they could pick "Dalilia" or "Delores", or "Kristen" for a female "K", as a tribute to historical EPac clerical errors. ;) Beatissima (talk) 00:24, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes

Name Operational Intensity and Duration Reanalysis Intensity and Duration TCR Release Date
Alberto 65 mph, 990 mbars, May 25-31 65 mph, 990 mbars, May 25-31 October 18, 2018
Beryl 80 mph, 994 mbars, July 5-8/14-16 80 mph, 991 mbars, July 4-8/14-16 September 20, 2018
Chris 105 mph, 970 mbars, July 6-12 N/A N/A
Debby 50 mph, 1000 mbars, August 7-9 N/A N/A
Ernesto 45 mph, 999 mbars, August 15-18 N/A N/A
Florence 140 mph, 939 mbars, August 31-Sept. 17 N/A N/A
Gordon 70 mph, 997 mbars, September 3-8 N/A N/A
Helene 110 mph, 966 mbars, September 7-16 N/A N/A
Isaac 75 mph, 993 mbars, September 7-15 N/A N/A
Joyce 50 mph, 997 mbars, September 12-19 N/A N/A
Eleven 35 mph, 1007 mbars, September 22-23 N/A N/A
Kirk 60 mph, 998 mbars, Sept. 22-24/26-29 N/A N/A
Leslie 90 mph, 969 mbars, Sept. 23-25/28-Oct.13 N/A N/A
Michael 155 mph, 919 mbars, October 7-12 N/A N/A
Nadine 65 mph, 997 mbars, October 9-12 N/A N/A
Oscar 105 mph, 970 mbars, October 27-31 N/A N/A

The first TCR for the Atlantic this year was put up on the site yesterday, and it is for Beryl. Some changes were that Beryl formed a day earlier, and pressure was dropped from 994 to 991 mbars.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   23:09, September 21, 2018 (UTC) 

Slight change in the section on Beryl -- It dissipated on the 8th but regenerated on the 14th. These dissipation and regeneration dates weren't changed in the TCR. Ryan1000 06:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

Alberto's TCR is out. New updates: He turned tropical on the 28th while still at 55 knots/65 MPH so he peaked as a TS not a SS. No change on the dates or strength, still 65 MPH/990 MB peaks. So, rip turning tropical over land. YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:37, October 18, 2018 (UTC)