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Current Systems: TROPICAL STORM TARA


This is the forum page for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, July, August-September
Storm Event Archives:Florence, Michael

Other Basin Talkpages (2018): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

The Hall of Fame returns

Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

October

It's now the start of October by UTC. We still have the potential to see activity later this month, in particular the northwest Caribbean should be watched, in the event we get a late-season strong storm there. Ryan1000 04:02, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

92L.INVEST

Another AOI, south of the Azores and already an invest, currently at 20/30.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   23:57, October 06, 2018 (UTC) 

30/30 now.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   17:03, October 07, 2018 (UTC)
Down to 10/10.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:27, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
0/0. Nadine might come from the Cape Verde AOI. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:36, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
Dead and off the TWO.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   18:23, October 08, 2018 (UTC) 

15L.NADINE

AOI: South of Cabo Verde

Hopefully I did this right. Looks like it's at 20/30 right now, south of Cabo Verde. Don't think it's an invest.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:27, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Guess this would become Nadine instead of 92L. Hopefully not as destructive as the other Cape Verde-type hurricanes. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:17, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Conditions are semi-decent for development in the near-future, but are expected to become unfavorable near the eastern Caribbean. It's possible that waves like this could become something if they reach the EPac down the road though. Conditions are favorable enough for one or two more good storms to form over there after Sergio. Ryan1000 08:57, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

Now an invest, and up to 50/60.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   18:23, October 08, 2018 (UTC) 

Up to 70/80. We could see Nadine here.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   23:49, October 08, 2018 (UTC) 
This is developing in a similar region to where Nadine's 2012 incarnation first developed. However, this one should be much shorter lived due to strong upper-level winds by late week. Probably going to be a failure name-stealer... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:55, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen

And it is now a TD. This will [sadly (?)] become Nadine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:13, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nadine

And it stole Nadine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:37, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

It's actually forecast to reach 50 mph, so maybe it could be a stronger tropical storm rather than just a pathetic name stealer. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:55, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
With Nadine being named, 2018 has 3 active named storm this late in the calendar year since from what I've heard, 1950. 2018 is giving us more surprises now with Nadine being a rare October MDR storm.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   21:13, October 09, 2018 (UTC) 

45 mph/1003 mb.YellowSkarmory (talk) 02:45, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, I think the folks in Florida would gladly trade storms right now. Beatissima (talk) 03:56, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

This storm is a disgraceful decendant of the 2012 Nadine, a near-record long-lived storm. Only thing it gets credit for is the fact it formed in the MDR in October, but still, it's gonna be a short-lived fishie. Ryan1000 03:58, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Guess she's being polite and doesn't want to steal Leslie's thunder. Beatissima (talk) 04:12, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
Or maybe, Nadine passed the crown to Leslie this time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:35, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
Might not be such a disgrace. Shorter-lived than last time, almost certainly, but the 12z ATCF brings Nadine up to 55 kts/997 mbar, an intensity that wasn't even in the NHC forecast until the 5am advisory. Could we potentially end up with three simultaneously active Atlantic hurricanes in October? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm...seems Nadine is putting on a better show than I thought. However, shear seems to be taking a toll on Nadine lately and a lot of the convection seems displaced east of the center now. If this becomes a hurricane...looks like I may eat my words, and that would make Nadine one of only a small handful of hurricanes in the open tropical Atlantic during October, along with Tomas of 2010 and Kate of 2003, to name a few. Ryan1000 20:56, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

The headline of the latest advisory is something along the lines of "Nadine losing organization and expected to weaken," but hey, she put in a good effort. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:55, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
I am kinda hoping that Nadine will merge with Leslie this time, but that will not happen (most likely). Not bad for a storm that was expected to remain weak though; like what everyone above said, Nadine defied expectations as she peaked at 65 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:19, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
I highly doubt such a merger is going to happen. Nadine exceeded our expectations and actually became a strong tropical storm. Nice job, Nadine. It has weakened to 60 mph and shear will get the best of Nadine in the next few days, making it the opposite of its previous incarnation longevity-wise. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:11, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

And she's gone. See you in 2024, Nadine. Beatissima (talk) 02:38, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Nadine

"No more Nadine" sayeth the NHC, lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean Sea/North of Panama II

So this just showed up behind Michael. 0/20 for now. Beatissima (talk) 21:29, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

0/30 now.YellowSkarmory (talk) 02:50, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
0/40. Beatissima (talk) 05:40, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
I hope future Oscar won't be as bad as Michael. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:34, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:08, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Still 0/50, but may only peak as a TD as it is expected to move to the west towards Belize. Oscar may have to wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:16, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Unless it is a weak name-stealer like Hanna '14 or even enters the Bay of Campeche in the long term. At least this probably won't be a re-Michael, but Mexico and Central America should still watch out. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:14, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
Down to 0/40. I hope this system won't bring much damage to Central America. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:21, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
And down to 0/30. Beatissima (talk) 01:56, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
And it completely went bust. 0/0 now. This will be off the TWO soon and Oscar will wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:03, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
Off the TWO. Send Help Please (talk) 03:02, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles

An AOI appears, just as the Atlantic seems to finally die. 10/10, and probably won't be much.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   02:06, October 14, 2018 (UTC) 

Yep it's not going to become much. Oscar will have to wait. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:12, October 14, 2018 (UTC)

Near 0/near 0 now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 01:01, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

And it is completely gone [for more than 12 hours] now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:15, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

AOI: East of Nicaragua

This just popped up, 10/20 currently. YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:44, October 14, 2018 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

Looks like it's invested now as 94L. Up to 20/20. YellowSkarmory (talk) 01:00, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

30/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:33, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

40/40, and the NHC says this could be a tropical depression before moving ashore in Central America tomorrow night. If it doesn't develop in the Caribbean this could become something in the EPac, though I'm not sure if this'll be linked to, or merge with, the AOI south of Mexico that's behind Tara right now that's at 0/70. Ryan1000 12:34, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

This system reminds me of TD 16 from 2008. I doubt it will become much more than a depression due to land interaction (at most a weak name-stealing Oscar), and it also looks like it could cause quite a bit of flooding problems down in Central America. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:55, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
Models are indicating a crossover of this invest from the ATL to the EPAC and forms in that basin, and giving us Xavier if the 0/80 AOI and the 10/20 AOI in the EPAC gets named.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   01:59, October 16, 2018 (UTC) 

Down to 0/0, and its southern part is expected to develop into (at least) a TD in the EPac. Not sure whether or not it will retain the 94L designation though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:12, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

I added this section, as we are already well into the season despite the fact that only 3 storms have formed so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's Atlantic retirement forecast

  • Alberto - 5% - Caused disruption, but nothing significant really.
  • Beryl - 5% - A spectacle, regenerated a la Harvey, scared Maria-battered Puerto Rico, yet only inflicted minimal damage.
  • Chris - 2% - 2% for being a Category 2 in the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic, but other than that... nothing notable.
  • Debby - 0.1% - Yeah, I gave that .1 for forming in cool waters. But no, Debby will definitely return in 2024.
  • Ernesto - 0.2% - Debby 2.0. I only gave that 0.2 percent due to the fact that Ernesto lasted longer than Debby. However, Ernesto will most likely return in 2024.
  • Florence - 100% - Let the flood damage in The Carolinas speak for itself. Sixth costliest Atlantic hurricane on record; there is no way for Florence to dodge retirement.
  • Gordon - 3% - Affected land but did not cause a lot of damage.
  • Helene - 2% - Caused 3 deaths as an extratropical system in UK, but impacts are negligible.
  • Isaac - 1.5% - Guess the "I" curse gave way for the "M" curse this year; Isaac will be back in 2024. Minor impacts reported but not enough to merit retirement.
  • Joyce - 0.25% - That 0.25% is purely a consolation, as Joyce became the 5th subtropical storm of the season (although eventually became tropical).
  • Kirk - 0% - Let's be real, this is a forgettable storm.
  • Leslie - TBD - Lengthy Lingering Leslie is basically Never Say Die Nadine 2012's successor. Let's see whether Leslie will eventually affect land.
  • Michael - 100% - Still active but will definitely get axed in spring.
  • Nadine - TBD - May not be as strong and long-lasting as the 2012 one, but became a strong TS. Also has a small chance to merge with Leslie (lowkey hoping for it).

That's all for now.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:13, October 11, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's retirement home

  • alby (5%) : "lolololol florida i'm gonna destroy you like irma" -was a subtropical storm-
  • bez (2%) : "weeeeeee i'm a baby hurricane i am gonna weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
  • chris (0%) : "look at me i can pull stunts like the chris-tal ball in 2014 and i can be better than him haha"
  • debby (-420%) : hell naw
  • anesuto (clannad%) : i didn't feel anything from this f-cker as he went past the uk LOL!
  • flossie (∞%) : OF COURSE THIS B-TCH BE GOING. WORSE THAN THAT F-CKER FLOYD WHO HIT HIMSELF LIKE A THROWN BRICK ON NC'S SEAWALL. BE GONE THOT. GOODBYE TO YOU AND YOUR TWISTED MACHINE YOU HURRICANE DRUNK THOT
  • gordon (5%) : ramsay's mouth was the gulf coast and he thinks the taste of clouds is too bland to warrant a retirement
  • helene (0%) : i literally flew into helene and ali upon return from germany, plus when i was in spain i got a bit of her lightning, and saw some sh-tty surf from the nw portuguese coast. dindunuffin.
  • i suck (0%) : lol no
  • joyce (0%) : ur mom lole

yare yare daze (talk) 17:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Steve's predictions and grades

See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, 200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%, 100% or TBA

Grading colors: EO+, EO, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA


Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

  • Alberto:
    • Retirement: 8% - Just >$125 million in damage and 12 deaths should not convince the U.S. to give Alberto the boot. This is nothing compared to very bad storms America experienced in the past, such as Harvey or Katrina. Usually, retirements in the U.S. have a damage bill of at least $1 billion.
    • Grading: D - Some credit given for its pre-season formation. However, the fact that it remained subtropical for almost its whole life (through peak intensity and landfall) prevents the grade from being higher than this.
  • Beryl:
    • Retirement: 3% - The relatively light impacts it caused were in-between lives as a remnant low. The regions it impacted have seen much worse last year. Even the hardest-hit regions (like the Dominican Republic) have seen much worse in the past.
    • Grading: B - The grade is boosted for its rapid intensification in the MDR so early in the year, and for being the first "Hurricane Beryl" ever. As a bonus, it briefly regenerated east of the East Coast. However, its small size meant it had potential to get even stronger in the MDR.
  • Chris:
    • Retirement: 1% - It did cause a death due to rough seas and impacted Canada as an extratropical system. That isn't enough to even think about retirement though.
    • Grading: B - Did a nice job at the C2 part.
  • Debby:
    • Retirement: 0% - Completely out to sea.
    • Grading: F - Stole a name off the list, but I have to say it performed better than I expected (by reaching 50 mph).
  • Ernesto:
    • Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts it ever caused were in the UK and Ireland as a post-tropical system. It was a complete fishspinner while tropical. That certainly won't ever earn it retirement.
    • Grading: F - Although it was weaker than Debby, it stayed tropical unusually far north.
  • FLORENCE:
    • RETIREMENT: 100% - FLORENCE WILL BE GONE BECAUSE OF ITS CATASTROPHIC EAST COAST DEVASTATION. DAMAGES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST $13 BILLION SO FAR, WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A CERTAIN RETIREMENT, AND IT WAS QUITE DEADLY TOO. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THIS WILL BE SNUBBED. SAY GOODBYE TO THE FINAL ORIGINAL "F" NAME AND THE LONGEST LASTING ATLANTIC NAME ON RECORD (FIRST USED IN 1953).
    • GRADING: A - WOW, WHAT AN AMAZING LONG-LIVED STORM THAT EVEN RI'D IN THE FACE OF MARGINAL CONDITIONS EARLIER IN ITS LIFESPAN. UNFORTUNATELY, THE IMPACTS TO THE U.S. KNOCK THE GRADE DOWN QUITE A BIT.
  • Gordon:
    • Retirement: 10% - So far, it killed 3 people which is much less than Alberto. Damages are at least $250 million, which by U.S. standards, is not really enough for retirement.
    • Grading: D - Became a strong tropical storm, near hurricane strength. The fact that it peaked just under hurricane strength isn't a big deal considering how it was threatening the Gulf Coast.
  • Helene:
    • Retirement: 3% - Hit the Cape Verdes and the Azores, and later on Great Britain as an extratropical system, but I highly doubt impacts were severe enough to even consider retirement. Unfortunately, it caused 3 deaths.
    • Grading: C+ - It got very close to hitting major status, but unfortunately flunked it. But this wasn't expected to get very powerful anyway.
  • Isaac:
    • Retirement: 0.5% - Any impacts in the Windward Islands were meager.
    • Grading: D - Fell below initial expectations, but at least it still became a hurricane.
  • Joyce:
    • Retirement: 0% - If excluding any very meager impacts in the Azores, this was a complete fishspinner. Joyce has no choice but to return in 2024.
    • Grading: F - Another fail like Debby and Ernesto earlier this year.
  • Eleven:
    • Retirement: N/A - no name
    • Grading: Z - Pathetic flop that developed too late. But let's be glad a name wasn't stolen.
  • Kirk:
    • Retirement: 1% - I doubt it was too bad, probably a re-Isaac for the Windwards.
    • Grading: E - Gets points for regenerating and peaking at 60 mph in its second life.
  • Leslie:
    • Retirement: 15% - Caused 14 deaths (mainly from a flash flood in France), and it might be somewhat possible that France or Portugal requests the name especially due to its rarity. However, retirement is still highly doubtful.
    • Grading: EO - Woah what a storm. First started as yet another subtropical system, became extratropical and regained tropical characteristics, became a hurricane 2 separate times (or even 3 if counting the storm being at hurricane strength while initially extratropical), and then became a very rare instance of a tropical system impacting Madeira and Portugal. Among its records: first TS alerts for Madeira in recorded history and the 10th longest-lived TC ever. Not to mention her extremely weird track.
  • MICHAEL:
    • RETIREMENT: 100% - INSANELY POWERFUL LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CAUSING MASSIVE DEVASTATION TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL TOWNS SUCH AS MEXICO BEACH. FATALITY COUNT 33 AS OF NOW, MAY STILL INCREASE LATER ON. DAMAGES ARE STILL POSSIBLY GOING TO BE MORE THAN THE CURRENT $8.1 BILLION FIGURE. TO SUMMARIZE IT UP, THIS SCUMBAG IS ABSOLUTELY NOT HAVING HIS NAME RETURN IN 2024.
    • GRADING: A- - A POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT WOULD HAVE GOTTEN A BETTER GRADE IF NOT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRIKE & ASSOCIATED DEVASTATION.
  • Nadine:
    • Retirement: 0% - A complete fishie.
    • Grading: D+ - Gets some credit for trying, at least it wasn't an epic fail. Not to mention it was the easternmost named storm for so late in the year.

Notes: Intensity colors -

  • Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
  • I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
  • I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -

  • "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
  • "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
  • 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
  • New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
  • Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -

  • EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
  • Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
  • Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ Steve 🌞 Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:20, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 00:02, October 16, 2018 (UTC))

TG's Retirement Predictions

Welcome to my fourth annual retirement prediction, the first year that I have dropped the colors since 2015. This year I will just make it simple and easy, without it taking 5 minutes to get the right color for each storm.

  • Alberto - 10%: 10% might be a little too high, but Alberto is definitely not worthy of retirement.
  • Beryl - 0%: I seriously think this storm is overrated, to be honest. It didn't do much, and it was a classic weak MDR cyclone that occasionally happen on the edge of the MDR.
  • Chris - 1%: Chris killed one person, unfortunately, but it won't be enough for a retirement. Classic subtropics hurricane. TG 2018 17:00, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
  • Debby - 0%: This one is definitely coming back.
  • Ernesto - 0%: Same as Debby
  • Florence - 100%: Yeah ok, bye Florence. (Replacement picks: Frieda, Fern, Faith, Felicity)
  • Gordon - 20%: Gordon is not going, but it does need some recognition for the $250 million in damages it caused.
  • Helene - 1%: Produced damage to mostly just the UK, where it was relatively minor.
  • Isaac - 0%: Not too interesting of a storm, plus no impacts means it is staying for 2024.
  • Joyce - 0%: Same as Debby.
  • Kirk - 0%: Same as Debby.
  • Leslie - 5%: Umm, ok. This one was really really interesting. It began as a very brief subtropical storm, but did not regenerate until a few days later. At that point it was just looping around until it hit Portugal as an extra-tropical cyclone and then moved into the Mediterranean. Even this one was weirder than Vince, to be honest.
  • Michael - 100%: Panhandle's Andrew. Not much else to say. (Retirement picks: Mason, Malcolm, Mark, Marcus)
  • Nadine - 0%: An MDR fail that did not affect any land. It's coming back in 2024 TG 2018 18:24, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements

Adding mine too. Color scheme is up for the second straight year.

Grades: A, B, C, D, E, F. These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%.

  • Alberto – grade A, retirement 15%. Early surprise to maintain a 4-year streak of preseason storms. Bonus points for transitioning to a tropical cyclone inland and surviving as far north as Michigan. Retirement is unlikely, however.
  • Beryl – grade A, retirement 5%. Cute little midget MDR hurricane. Even managed to hang on and have a second stint as a subtropical storm. Simply amazing.
  • Chris – grade C, retirement 5%. Decent fish, unfortunately one death.
  • Debby – grade F, retirement 0%. "Debby" shouldn't have gone to this name thief.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 10:07, August 10, 2018 (UTC).

Roy's Retirement Prediction

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ???


  • Alberto (17%) - A pre-season storm that continued the streak of years with pre-season storms, and transitioned to a tropical cyclone over Tennessee and made it as far as Michigan. It did some millions of damage and a couple of deaths, but the US won't retire this name
  • Beryl (0.001%) - A small hurricane in the MDR that became the first ever Hurricane Beryl. This won't be retired, but a little bit greater than 0% due to its effect on land while post-tropical
  • Chris (1%) - A C2 that didn't really affect land other than claiming one live, but even that won't retire Chris
  • Debby (0%) - Weak storm that stayed out to sea
  • Ernesto (0%) - Same as Debby, but did stay tropical really far north
  • FLORENCE (100%) - A long lasting storm that devastated the Carolinas, and caused an estimated $17 billion as well as claiming 40 lives so far. Say good-bye to the last remaining original "F" name in the Atlantic.
  • Gordon (1%) - A relatively quick storm that almost became a hurricane, but only caused 2 deaths as of now.
  • Helene (0.01%) - A nice storm that originally threatened the Azores but hadn't. Only claimed 3 lives.
  • Isaac (0.001%) - A small storm that did nothing tot he Lesser Antilles, and claimed no lives
  • Joyce (0%) - Pretty much a weak fish
  • Kirk (0.001%) - A pretty weak storm that impacted the Leeward Islands at the end of it's life, but other than that, nothing
  • Leslie (0.001%) - Oh boy, what a long-lived storm. Barely affected land, and stayed out in sea for most of its live, and generated a lot of ACE for the season.
  • MICHAEL (100%) - This storm was the third most intense storm ever to hit the US, and the strongest to hit the Florida Panhandle. Absolutely demolished Mexico Beach and Panama City, the former of which was on the bull's-eye of Michael, and from what I've heard, both places were described as a "war-zone" in the aftermath of Michael. This name is so getting that kick next spring.
  • Nadine (0%) - Compared to its 2012 incarnation, this was weak, but it did managed to peak at 65 mph in the face of strong shear.

NOTE:

  1. Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
  2. The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
  3. Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 17:49, August 08, 2018 (UTC) Last updated on 18:15, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Lee’s retirements

We’ve had only 4 systems, but it is August, so I might as well start this.

  • Alberto- 10%: Caused 12 deaths, and some impacts, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
  • Beryl- 2%: First ever Hurricane Beryl, and it came in the form of a cute little mini-hurricane. Did cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico and other areas recovering from Irma and Maria from last year, but thankfully wasn’t too bad and caused no fatalities.
  • Chris- 3%: Did cause some impacts in Newfoundland, and unfortunately one death. Not enough for retirement though.
  • Debby- 0%: Nope.
  • Ernesto- 0%: Ditto.
  • Florence- 100%: Damages potentially well over $20 billion, 41 deaths so far. Our last original F name is definitely gone after this year. (Replacement names: Fern, Frieda, Faith.)
  • Gordon- 5%: 3 deaths and quite a bit of flooding, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
  • Helene- 5%: 3 deaths from the precursor wave, I expect it to stay.
  • Isaac- 0%: Unlike the last original F name, our last original I name won’t be going anywhere, even though he probably should have been retired in 2012.
  • Joyce- 0%: Didn’t do any harm.
  • Kirk- 0%: Didn’t live long or prosper
  • Lingering Leslie- 0%: Longevity doesn’t equal retirement. (Well, except for Typhoon Ophelia, but that’s besides the point)
  • Michael- 100%: With Michael being the third most intense hurricane to make landfall in the US, and with some of the damage photos I’ve seen from it, Michael is definitely gone after this year. Outside of the US, 9 fatalities were caused by the storm in Central America. The Florida Panhandle has never seen a storm of this magnitude before. Michael is very likely costlier than Hurricane Ivan was in the Panhandle, and therefore will likely be the costliest hurricane on record in this part of Florida. The areas around Michael’s landfall are disaster areas now, lots of people are missing, and the death count will likely continue to rise. I feel that the damage in Mexico City alone could justify retirement, and Michael will, without question, be out after this year. (Replacement choices: Marcel, Mark or Marcus, Mason)
  • Nadine- 0%: Nada, although I will say she put in a good effort to become a hurricane, but fell short.

Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:54, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Grade colors: S, A+, A, A-, B, C, D, E, F, Failippe

Note: Impact to land has no affect on grade, aside from S rank, which is reserved for fishspinners.


  • Alberto: Grade: C - Retirement: 10% - Neat little pre-season surprise that went tropical inland and continued the pre-season storm streak that has been going since 2015. Gets 10% for around $125 million in damage and 12 total deaths.
  • Beryl: Grade: B - Retirement: 1% - We finally got a Hurricane Beryl, in the form of an adorable little mini-cane that (mostly) spared the areas that were mauled last season. Bonus points for surprise regen though it was short lived.
  • Chris: Grade: C - Retirement: 2% - Gert 2.0
  • Debby: Grade: F - Retirement: lol no % - Nothing too notable about this one, aside from it starting this year's nrothern latitude subtropical storm trend.
  • Ernesto: Grade: E - Retirement: 0% - Basically Debby 2.0, but gains points for resilience.
  • FLORENCE: Grade: A - Retirement: 100% - Early in her life, she looked to be an impressive fishspinner that RI'd ito a Cat. 4 in only marginal conditions. This was not to be her legacy though, as she would then make landfall in North Carolina and slow to a crawl a la Harvey. She then proceeded break rainfall records in both North and South Carolina, turn Wilmington into an island for a few days, cause at least 38 billion dollars in damage and kill over 50 people. After this season, she's gone, no doubt about it.
  • Gordon: Grade: E - Retirement: 5% - Almost reached hurricane status, but hit land before he could. Impacts were not that bad aside from the two deaths, which is why I'm giving him a lower retirement chance than Alberto.
  • Helene: Grade: B - Retirement: 3% - Got a bit stonger than expected, didn't do much other than cause the deaths of 3 people.
  • Isaac: Grade: D - Retirement: 1% - Unremarkable MDR Cat 1, didn't have the cuteness or regen bonus of Beryl.
  • Eleven: Grade: F - Retirement: N/A - I honestly forgot about it's existence from a few days after it formed to the time of me typing this. That goes to show how forgettable this system was. At least it didn't steal a name.
  • Joyce: Grade: F - Retirement: 0% - Yet another northern latitude subtropical storm.
  • Kirk: Grade: E - Retirement: 1% - Saved from F rank by the regen, didn't do much in the Caribbean.
  • Leslie: Grade: A+ - Retirement: 0.0001% - My current favorite storm from the Atlantic this year, and the undisputed best of the 2018 Subtropical Crew. Her drunken tour of the northern Atlantic, complete with a regen, tropical transition, obtaining of hurricane status, and threatening of Portugal of all places, was an absolute blast to watch. If she had've lasted even longer, or become a Cat. 2, she would've achieved S rank for sure. Nevertheless, great job Leslie! I look foward to seeing what you have in store for 2024, as long as it's out to sea.
  • MICHAEL: Grade: A+ - Retirement: 100% - Absolutely blew intensity forecasts out of the water, coming just a hair shy of Category 5 status. Unfortunately. he had go and make landfall at this incredible intensity, reducing areas in the landfall area to rubble and causing 8.1 billion dollars in damage (as of right now, the final damage total will probably be much higher). Worst of all, many people, as many 285 in Mexico Beach alone, chose to stay and ride out the storm, and, well, it would take a miracle to survive this . Michael's impacts in Central America and Cuba cannot go unstated either, with him causing 15 deaths in the former region. Michael is gone after this season, no question.
  • Nadine: Grade: E - Retirement: 0% - Hit 65 mph againt expectations, so she wasn't a complete failure. Still nothing compared to her 2012 incarnation though.

Will be added on to as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances

  • Tropical Storm Alberto - 0.5% : Became tropical over land, caused some damage and, sadly, deaths.
  • Category 1 Beryl - 0% : First HURRICANE Beryl ever, did nothing.
  • Category 2 Chris - 0.01 % : Did nothing but take the life of 1, sadly.
  • Tropical Storm Debby - 0% : A fail, but at least it became a named storm.
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto - 0% : Another fail, the Atlantic storms this year seem to like the water up north for some reason.
  • Category 4 Florence - Bye% : Mass flooding in the Carolinas, possibly more than $10 billion $30 billion in damage, and 53 deaths (as of 10/07/2018). Bye, Florence.
  • Tropical Storm Gordon - 0.5% : Did some things to the gulf coast, sadly taking the lives of two.
  • Category 2 Helene - 0% : Almost became a major hurricane and is forecast to affect the Azores Islands.
  • Category 1 Isaac - 0.000000000000000001% : Weak hurricane that did stuff to the Caribbean islands. I highly doubt this will get retired.
  • Tropical Storm Joyfail - 0% : Why did this fail even exist...
  • Tropical Storm Kirk - 0% : Will affect the Caribbean later on.
  • Category 1 Leslie - 0% : And it's finally about to become extratropical...
  • Category 4 Michael - Away% : Will be retired. Bye, Michael.
  • Tropical Storm Faildine - 0% : Did nothing but spin fish.

Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:01, August 15, 2018 (UTC) Updated October 13, 2018.

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

Never thought this year's AHS would kick up as fast as it did...it's a shame that we got a severe storm for the U.S. this year, after last year. For now, though:

  • Alberto - 10% - Made 2018 the fourth consecutive AHS to start early, and was the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to do so as well. But with 125 million in damage and 12 deaths, I have to give him some credit for impact.
  • Beryl - 1% - Defied expectations and become a tiny hurricane in the open Atlantic and came back later on as a subtropical storm, but Bery's effects on land were minimal at most.
  • Chris - 1% - Killed a person from rip currents and caused some minor damage in Newfoundland. Nothing too much.
  • Debby - 0% - Shortest-lived and weakest storm of the season. Fail.
  • Ernesto - 0% - Debby 2.0.
  • Florence - 100% - Caused catastrophic flooding in North Carolina that ranks Florence 8th among the top 10 wettest tropical cyclones in U.S. history. The damage totals in North Carolina were recently nerfed considerably, to around 13 billion dollars, much less than the earlier estimates of 38-45 billion, but still, that's enough for Florence to be retired.
  • Gordon - 5% - Killed at least 2 people, with some minor damage from inland flooding.
  • Helene - 2% - Precursor wave killed 3 people, with some minor effects in Cape Verde and the Azores, but nothing else.
  • Isaac - 1% - Caused minor rainfall in the Lessers, but Isaac dissipated in the Caribbean and he will come back in 2024. Our last original "I" retired name will have to wait for some other day.
  • Joyce - 0% - Didn't even affect the Azores...so see you in 6 years.
  • Kirk - 1% - Passed through the Lessers as a minor TS, but with little impacts, like Isaac and Beryl.
  • Leslie - 1% - Made a rare landfall on the Iberian Peninsula as an extratropical storm, with the first ever TS warnings issued for the Maderia Islands. It also took a rare and long track, but it probably won't be retired.
  • Michael - 100% - Almost completely destroyed Panama City and surrounding areas as a massive, top-end 155 mph category 4 monster storm, so there's absolutely no way Michael won't be retired next spring.
  • Nadine - 0% - Nada Nadine. See you in 2024.

That's it...for now. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)

Retirement predictions from Nut

Not a regular user here, but since we're well into the peak of the season and the fact that the Atlantic has shot up in activity, I'll do my retirements.

  • Alberto - 15% - A pre-season storm (fourth consecutive one) that only did minor damage in the Gulf Coast. Impressed that the Atlantic can crank up another pre-season storm. The Atlantic will fail after 2018.
  • Beryl - 1% - Can't imagine retirement as impacts were negligible. Its intensification to a hurricane was impressive given cool waters in the MDR and it also defied initial forecasts.
  • Chris - 2.5% - Minimal impacts overall which killed a person thanks to its rip currents.
  • Debby - 0% - An unusual storm that formed far north, a borderline fail but not exactly a fail due to its formation location.
  • Ernesto - 1% - Unlike others, I'm not calling this a fail as it stayed tropical unusually far north. Minimal damages (if any) equal no retirement unless the Daily Express gets its hands on the retirement system.
  • Florence - TBC - First major hurricane of the season which is currently posing a major threat to the Carolinas. Retirement percentage will be released once the storm dissipates.
  • Gordon - 5% - Near hurricane that hit land before it had to chance to become one. I kinda wish it became a hurricane, maybe it'll receive the Cindy 2005 treatment post-analysis. But then again, why would I wish hurricane intensity over a storm that poses a minor threat to land.
  • Helene - TBC - Currently an active near-major hurricane. She will most likely remain at sea after leaving minor effects in Cape Verde.
  • Isaac - TBC - Forecast to pass through the Lessers as a hurricane, but let's hope impacts are minor (it probably will be) as Maria 2017 was bad enough for Dominica.

Nutfield001 (talk) 16:32, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Isaac's Oversimplified Predictions

  • Florence - 100% - Flooding still happening, but the damage will be in the billions.
  • Isaac - No.
  • Michael - 100% - Panhandle's Andrew.
  • Any other names - 0%

--Isaac829E-Mail 01:48, October 12, 2018 (UTC)

Retirement Chances from Owen

  • Alberto - 1% - Caused roughly $125 million worth in damages in the southeastern United States gives him credit where it's due but history tells us he will remain on the naming list. 
  • Beryl - 0% - A true defier of every forecast and the second earliest MDR hurricane on record, but she's going to stay because of the lack of major affects. 
  • Chris - 0% - A hurricane, which did impressed many and attained C2, that didn't really do anything notable enough to warrant retirement. 
  • Debby - 0% - Not a chance in hell. 
  • Ernesto - 0% - See Debby.
  • Florence - 100% - I was the first to write here previously about the report from Moody's Analytics that Hurricane Florence damages ranged anywhere from $17-22 billion. It now appears that damage is more excessive than originally anticipated and if true , places as Florence the seventh costliest hurricane in United States history. Even if the damages are closer to the previous report, it's extremely likely the U.S. will request the retirement of the name. Accordingly, I can now say it's safe to assume retirement will certainly occur. Goodbye Florence(Replacement picks: Faith, Frieda, and Fern)
  • Gordon - 1% - Like Alberto, he fortunately, didn't really cause significant damages. 
  • Helene - 1% - Wrought some minimal effects on Cabo Verde and Azores, and tried to throw on a show in the eastern Atlantic leading to her just barely missing out on major hurricane status. 
  • Isaac - 1% - He lasted a bit longer than I expected him to and was one of three simultaneous hurricanes, so credit is due there, but it looks like Isaac is coming back in 2024. 
  • Joyce - 0% - See Debby and Ernesto. 
  • Kirk - 0% - I give him credit for being able to regenerate and become a moderate tropical storm, but it doesn't look like he did much in terms of impact in the Lesser Antilles. 
  • Leslie - TBA - Leslie has been a headache for forecasters, but she's now aimed at Spain and Portugal as a potential hurricane. If that materializes, we will be in uncharted territory as far as modern times seeing that happen. 
  • Michael - 100% - The third most intense hurricane to ever strike the United States will not be returning to the naming lists in 2024. Goodbye Michael. (Replacement picks: Marcus, Milo, and Malcolm)

Owen 18:13, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Beatissima's retirement predictions

  • Definitely:
    • C4 Florence - Though the cost of damage appears to be lower than previously thought, it's still in the billions, so with that and 53 dead, Florence is still retiring in a handbasket.
    • C4 Michael - Yep.  Mexico Beach is gone, and so is this name.
  • Probably: ---
  • Likely: ---
  • Maybe:
    • C1 Leslie - 15 deaths have been reported so far.  If those 15 deaths had occurred on a southern US Coast, a Caribbean island, or some other place where hurricanes are frequently on residents' minds, then retirement would be unlikely.  But the communities Leslie struck, until just a week ago, had never imagined losing loved ones in a tropical cyclone.  So I can see how the trauma might be great enough to prompt Portugal, France or Spain to request Leslie's retirement.
      Whether it stays on the list or not...from now on, the name "Leslie" will certainly carry history in it.
  • Unlikely:
    • SS Alberto - 12 dead and over a hundred million in damage is not insignificant, but unlike Leslie's impacts, most of Alberto's occurred in places that have seen far, far worse.  So I doubt Alberto will be retired this year.
  • Probably not:
    • TS Gordon
    • C2 Helene
  • Definitely not:
    • C1 Beryl
    • C2 Chris
    • TS Debby
    • TS Ernesto
    • C1 Isaac
    • TS Joyce
    • TS Kirk
    • TS Nadine
  • N/A:
    • TD Eleven
  • Currently active: ---
  • Unused:
    • Oscar
    • Patty
    • Rafael
    • Sara
    • Tony
    • Valerie
    • William
    • Greeks


Beatissima (talk) 02:45, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Skarmory's retirement predictions + grades

Grades: S, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, F-, TBD

  • Alberto - 5% - A- - Shouldn't get retired, damages were pretty bad and there were some deaths though. Became tropical over Tennessee which earns it this high, but the land impacts drop it down to A-.
  • Beryl - 0.5% - B - No deaths and minimal damages. You'll be staying. However the regen portion was nice, and no deaths help its' grade.
  • Chris - 1% - - 1 death and probably minimal damages. Only reason his retirement chances are higher than Beryl is because of the death. However he was a nice little C2 in the northern atlantic.
  • Debby - 0% - F -  Fishspinner that did nothing except turn tropical.
  • Ernesto - 0% - - Fishspinner while tropical/subtropical that also did nothing except turn tropical.
  • Florence - 100% - A- - Self-explanatory retirement chance. Devastating in the Carolinas, over 38 billion USD in damages estimated. Those damages knock it down to A-, but becoming the first major of the year and having an unusual track get it up this high. (Replacement picks: Faith, Fern)
  • Gordon - 2% - C- - 2 deaths, damages were probably not that bad. Very unlikely to be retired. Being a TS with an eye was cool though.
  • Helene - 2% - C - 3 deaths and impacts on Cabo Verde, damages unknown but also probably not that bad. Impacted europe while extratropical but that shouldn't affect anything. Becoming a C2 was cool, the effects were not quite as cool. Barely missed major status.
  • Isaac - 1% - D - No deaths, unknown damages. Probably not very severe. Weak hurricane that didn't do too much gets it D rank.
  • Joyce - 0% - F - Fishspinner, just like Debby/Ernesto in that it did nothing except turn tropical.
  • Eleven - 0% - F - Can't be retired. Didn't do much of anything except form.
  • Kirk - 1% - D - Same as Isaac. Didn't reach hurricane strength but did regen.
  • Leslie - 0.5% - A+ - You were awesome to track, Leslie. Not reaching past C1/actually affecting land somewhat knocks you down to only A+, but you were great. Also, you became the 6th subtropical storm, breaking the record. 10th longest lasting too. Shouldn't be retired, unsure how bad the effects were but probably not that bad. See you in 2024, Leslie, and hopefully you can be just as good as you were this year!
  • Michael - 99.5% - A- - Definitely gone, but that RI was incredible, impacts knock him down to A-. If he gets upgraded to C5 in post-analysis he'll be an A. The low death tolls knock him down a bit below 100%, but he should be gone. (Replacement picks: Mark, Mack, Mickey)
  • Nadine - 0% - D - Fishspinner that outperformed expectations.
  • YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:48, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

AnimationMaster's retirement predictions

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, 0.001-0.9%, 1-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%

Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA



Notes:

  • Percentages/grades in italics indicate temporary ratings and would have yet to change.

AnimationMaster (Talk | Contributions) 00:30, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Replacement names

Female "F" names (for Florence)

Since Florence caused major damage and many fatalities in North Carolina with her very heavy rains, strong surge, and locally high winds, the last original "F" name since 1979 is this season's first retirement candidate. So, what do you think will replace Florence? Here are some suggestions:

  • Faith
  • Fern
  • Fatima
  • Farrah
  • Frieda
  • Fannie
  • Fanya
  • Florita

These are some names that come to mind. Any other suggestions? Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Personally Farrah would be my favourite name to replace Florence but I do feel like Faith and Fern should be used first since they have been used previously. If I were to suggest other names they would be:
  • Fallon
  • Francesca
  • Francine
  • Fleur
  • Freya

--Whiplash (talk) 19:31, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Frida/Frieda/Freda is my favorite to replace Florence (kinda like Fred, but since Julia/Julian exist here, I think it would be a good option). Federica, Farrah and Freya are also okay with me. Fanny, Fleur, Francine and Fern are also great. Other options may be Fiore, Flavia, Filomena, Felina and Fergie (although that may remind people either of the former duchess, the former football manager or the singer/rapper). But if they are gonna apply what they did to Katrina and Rita, I think Flo would be the front runner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:06, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

The government of France requested Frances to be removed in the RA IV hurricane committee after 2004 (but Frances was destructive enough on its own merit), so names similar to Frances, like Francine, Francesca, ect probably won't be picked, if France makes another request like they did for Frances. Ryan1000 20:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Here are some more
  • Fergie
  • Fortuna
  • Fairy
  • Fina
  • Felicita

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:56, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

uhh
  • frida (this spelling only, the freida/freda spellings are minging and frida can also be used in spanish-speaking countries)
  • fabiola
  • francesca (but reminds me too much of fran, now aged 22 and regretting her drunken rampage across nc, flossie was like this b-tch, avoid bad omens!)
  • fatima (islamic name, similar to omar in 2020, #diversity)
  • faith (belch)
  • fleur (play that sax)
  • felicity
  • fanny (imagine if it hits the uk)
  • farrah (fawcett)
  • fabienne
  • frederica
  • frederike
  • fern (britton, lol)
  • fearne (cotton, better)
  • farryn
  • faelyn
  • fineena (irish name)
  • fauna
  • faustine
  • farzaneh (muslim)
  • finola (also irish)

my top pics would be frida, fanny, farrah, fabiola, fleur, fatima. --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:35, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

also why d'yall prefer the hideous spelling of freida

i need a vomit bucket right now it's frida --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

I honestly like Faith, Fatima, Farrah, Frieda, and Francine. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:54, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
BRUH it's FRIDA, not Freida! If they choose the latter spelling I NEED A FKKING VOMIT BUCKET AND TO BE SENT TO A&E ¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 12:15, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Calm it Rara. We all have different preferences of what names we like, no need to bash on others for having different opinions. As for me, Fri(e)da isn't my first pick, but it's an option nonetheless; I would like Farrah, Faith, Fleur, Fern, or Fatima. Ryan1000 12:31, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

And what Steve said is actually Frieda, not Freida. Anyway, I think Freda/Frida/Frieda is a strong candidate to replace Florence, but I am having a gut feel that they would just shorten Florence to Flo (I hope not, but it is still a possibility). Frauke may also replace Florence. Farrah, Freya and Faith are also likely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:13, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
lol! don't y'all understand that i'm not being serious and learn to take a joke? anyway frauke is cool too --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 21:59, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
As listed in my section, my top three names as replacements for Florence in order are Faith, Fern and Frieda. If I was to make a prediction based off of my gut - a form of Frieda is probably going to be the replacement. I don't see names such as Francine or Flo being selected because they are too similar to Fran and Florence, but you never know (eg. Frederic getting retired being replaced with Fabian, which in turn would also head toward retirement, only to be replaced with Fred). Owen 07:11, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Felicia, Felice, Feodora, Flannery, Fleurette. Beatissima (talk)


Felicia is already in use in the EPac (last used for an epic fail TS in 2015), so that can't be used as a replacement for Florence. Ryan1000 07:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Male "M" names (for Michael)

Having directly struck the Panhandle of Florida as a 155 mph category 4 monster and likely annihilated Panama City, Michael is our second guaranteed retirement candidate this year. So, what do you think will replace Michael? Here are some suggestions:

  • Mark
  • Marcus
  • Macario
  • Mariano
  • Maurizio
  • Mickey
  • Moriarty
  • Merrick
  • Morris
  • Malcolm
  • Mervyn
  • Merv
  • Marcelino
  • Marley
  • Mercer
  • Merlin
  • Miles
  • Micah
  • Milo
  • Maurice
  • Mac(k)
  • Melvin
  • Marvin
  • Marshall

My personal picks would be Mark/Marcus, Miles, Morris, or Micah (for the record, I copy/pasted most of this from Andros1337's suggestions for Matthew in 2016, except Martin, which did replace Matthew). Ryan1000 00:09, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

My picks would be Marcus, Malcolm, Moriarty,  or (Bob) Marley.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:28, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
I'd like to see Mark, Marcus, Mack, Malcolm, Miles or Morris. In reality what I expect to replace Michael assuming he does get retired is something along the lines of Mack or Mickey, older names that aren't exactly the most common but decently common, fits along the theme of list 4. Mark is also a possibility. Maybe throw in Marvin/Maurice too. YellowSkarmory (talk) 03:17, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
Marcus, Morris/Maurice/Maurizio (Sarri?)/Mauricio (Pochettino?), Merlin, Marvin, Melvin. Those are my faves. But I think the replacement would be Mark, Mac(k), Mick/Mickey or Miles. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:40, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
There are a lot of good M names to choose from. My picks are Marcel, Mark/Marc(us), or Mason. I’ve seen the name Max thrown around quite a bit too for a replacement. Max would be a good name, except for the fact that it’s already in use in the Pacific, and therefore can’t replace Michael. Leeboy100Beware Michael’s Fury. 01:51, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
I would love to see Milo, Maxime, or Marlon personally. There are a lot of potential M names that could be chosen so we will just have to wait and see. --Whiplash (talk) 03:10, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

It's cool to see how the names on these lists are like time capsules from the years they were first chosen. There aren't too many people with names like Florence, Earl, Arlene or Gert anymore. I'd like to see retired names get replaced with names that are prevalent in the years they are chosen -- names that younger people can look at and go, "Hey, I have a hurricane!" There are lots of young men named Mason and Micah. I think those would be good picks. Beatissima (talk) 02:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

This is probably just me, but I really can't see "Marley" being used, and Send Help Please kind of said why. I get the feeling Jamaica would raise hell over the idea that a destructive force of nature would bear the same name as such a significant figure in their history. "Bob" was at least common enough of a name that some people can link it elsewhere. "Marley" is a little too on-the-nose. Jake52 (talk) 03:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Well, it's an option (I honestly would prefer it to be used as a Female "M" name, as it can be), though I think names like Mark/Marcus, Micah, Morris, ect should be picked first. Ryan1000 07:13, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes

Name Operational Intensity and Duration Reanalysis Intensity and Duration TCR Release Date
Alberto 65 mph, 990 mbars, May 25-31 N/A N/A
Beryl 80 mph, 994 mbars, July 5-8/14-16 80 mph, 991 mbars, July 4-8/14-16 September 20, 2018
Chris 105 mph, 970 mbars, July 6-12 N/A N/A
Debby 50 mph, 1000 mbars, August 7-9 N/A N/A
Ernesto 45 mph, 999 mbars, August 15-18 N/A N/A
Florence 140 mph, 939 mbars, August 31-Sept. 17 N/A N/A
Gordon 70 mph, 997 mbars, September 3-8 N/A N/A
Helene 110 mph, 966 mbars, September 7-16 N/A N/A
Isaac 75 mph, 993 mbars, September 7-15 N/A N/A
Joyce 50 mph, 997 mbars, September 12-19 N/A N/A
Eleven 35 mph, 1007 mbars, September 22-23 N/A N/A
Kirk 60 mph, 998 mbars, Sept. 22-24/26-29 N/A N/A
Leslie 90 mph, 969 mbars, Sept. 23-25/28-Oct.13 N/A N/A
Michael 155 mph, 919 mbars, October 7-12 N/A N/A
Nadine 65 mph, 997 mbars, October 9-12 N/A N/A

The first TCR for the Atlantic this year was put up on the site yesterday, and it is for Beryl. Some changes were that Beryl formed a day earlier, and pressure was dropped from 994 to 991 mbars.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   23:09, September 21, 2018 (UTC) 

Slight change in the section on Beryl -- It dissipated on the 8th but regenerated on the 14th. These dissipation and regeneration dates weren't changed in the TCR. Ryan1000 06:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)