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This is the forum page for the 2017 Pacific typhoon season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


AugustEdit

New month, new storms. Here we go! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:37, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVESTEdit

98W.INVESTEdit

New invest spotted by JTWC near Nalgae/13W. Low chance of formation as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

Finally gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

14W.BANYANEdit

90W.INVESTEdit

And another invest is spotted by JTWC after a brief period of inactivity in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:03, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

It's at a high chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14WEdit

Just upgraded. JTWC already puts 14W as a tropical storm. This storm already looks like a TS, and could be Banyan very soon. TG 2017 10:49, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm BanyanEdit

And JMA immediately followed suit. Not expected to become a typhoon. Archetypal fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

The intensity is at 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:24, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
Intensified into 50 mph on 10-min and 60 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 998 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Well this formed quickly. JTWC forecasts a weak typhoon (up to 85 knots) but I think it might have minor potential to become the equivalent of a major hurricane if it defies the forecast. It's currently near Wake Island, but other than that this is just going to spin fish. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:59, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Oh, this suddenly intensified. Would love to see this become a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:24, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm BanyanEdit

Wow, this is really unexpected! Banyan is almost poised to become a typhoon now. Banyan is at 60 mph/992 mbar right now. TG 2017 11:29, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 65 mph/990 mbar. Could become a typhoon by the end of the day. TG 2017 14:27, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
This could become pretty powerful. JTWC takes it up to a "C3 strength" typhoon by the 14th before weakening occurs. I'd even give a chance that this could explosively intensify to become a super typhoon, although that looks somewhat unlikely for now. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:15, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Banyan actually looks good on satellite right now; in fact, it somehow reminds me of (the recent hurricane) Franklin at its peak. It seems like it's already a C1 by now, though JTWC currently puts Banyan at 70 mph (1-min). I'd be delighted if this reaches C3 or even higher. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:22, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon BanyanEdit

Just as soon as you said that, Anonymous, Banyan became a typhoon. This has a high chance to go through RI. TG 2017 18:57, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

I feel like this could be another super typhoon if RI occurs. If not, a C4-strength typhoon is likely. JTWC takes it up to 110 knots (aka 125 mph). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:58, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
This already looks like a C3 typhoon, IMO. Banyan could double its intensity by tomorrow morning. TG 2017 21:11, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
It has cleared out an eye which is visible from there. Winds are up to 80 mph on 10-min and 90 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 975 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:27, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Dang it's already a C2 typhoon (90 knots/105 mph) according to JTWC. This thing is RIing looks like. A super typhoon is very possible. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:41, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Wow, that was quick. Now a C4 or a C5 can be possible; this system is moving slowly. Still a C2 however, but this will surely become stronger. I hope it becomes stronger than Noru, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Banyan has stalled in intensity (still 90 knots according to JTWC). A super typhoon is looking less likely, unfortunately. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:01, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Sigh, I think you are right about that. Oh well, the next best thing that Banyan can do is to become a C3 or even a C4 before it dies; it is forecast to weaken by Tuesday or Wednesday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:24, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 75 knots (85 mph) (1-min) and will weaken further until dissipation while quickly approaching Alaska. Be glad that it at least became a modest typhoon out to sea... :) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:46, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
Intensity down to 75 mph/980 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:11, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Banyan (2nd time)Edit

It's dying. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:15, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

At STS strength, and IbAHAn, we go by the JMA grading not the JTWC. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:40, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC has issued their final advisory. Intensity is now 60 knots/985 mbars. At least Banyan gave us something to look at in the WPac. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:13, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. TG 2017 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's RetirementsEdit

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z)(Category colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

International names:

  • Muifa: Grade: Z Retirement: 0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
  • Merbok: Grade: D+ Retirement: 5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
  • Nanmadol: Grade: C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
  • Talas: Grade: F Retirement: 15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
  • Noru: Grade: A+++++ Retirement: 5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
  • Kulap: Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
  • Sonca: Grade: Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
  • Roke: Grade: Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
  • Nesat: Grade: D Retirement: 1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
  • Haitang: Grade: F Retirement: 5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
  • Nalgae: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.

PAGASA names:

  • All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. TG 2017 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of RetirementsEdit

50% or more=italics

Here goes nothing...

International

Storm Name Chance of Retirement Comments

Muifa

0.1% A weak storm that effected the Caroline Islands. I don't think I will see that going.
Merbok 2.5% Made landfall in South China causing $37.2 million and only 1 death. That isn't enough to be retired though.
Nanmadol 60%

Okay, I'm sick of this now that I tracked it. This storm made landfall in Japan caused $982 million of damages (Which is just short of getting $1 billion of damages) and caused 36 deaths. This may be retired due to that.

Talas 10% This storm made landfall in Vietnam causing $5.6 million and 14 deaths.
Noru 1%

Best typhoon I ever witnessed for two things.

First, it had exploded from a TS to a C5 in just one day. One day. I mean, holy shoot!

Second, it lasted for about 22 days of the West Pacific. 22 days. That is the longest storm I've ever tracked.

It caused 2 deaths before making landfall on the mainland Japan. Damages unknown. I'll give this a straight A+++.

Kulap 0% A somewhat weak but beautiful tropical storm that stayed a few degrees west of the International Date Line. It defined the forecast though.
Roke 0% A short lived storm that failed to actually make landfall on China (it was downgraded into a remnant low before landfall). Because of that, no deaths or damages are reported.
Sonca

25%

And then this storm yet again made landfall in Vietnam. It caused $7.3 million of damages and 31 deaths. 23 of those deaths came from the worst flash floods in Thailand in years. This has a good chance to be retired.

Nesat 2.5%

It made landfall on China and Taiwan causing at least 2 deaths and $6.06 million in damages. I don't think this would be going.

Haitang 2.5%

Made landfall on Taiwan and China. It caused $3.83 million but no deaths. I don't think this would be going either.

Nalgae 0%

A pathetic fishspinner that stayed out to sea.

Banyan TBA Currently active.

PAGASA

Storm Name(s) Chance of Retirement Comments
All the names 0% No, just no. They don't meet the requirements of being retired.

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

A2.0's Retirement ForecastEdit

JMA namesEdit

  • Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
  • Merbok - 0% - same as above.
  • Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
  • Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
  • Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
  • Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
  • Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
  • Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
  • Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
  • Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
  • Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
  • Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA namesEdit

  • Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
  • Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
  • Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from SteveEdit

Haven't done this here since 2015, but here you go.

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)
(Category colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)
(Grade colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, F-, Z--(x∞))

Notes:

  • A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
  • Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
  • Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

INTERNATIONAL NAMES

  • Muifa: 0.01%, F- - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this the "Z" grade.
  • Merbok: 5%, D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
  • Nanmadol: 65%, D - Has a pretty decent chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
  • Talas15%, D - Although it caused 14 deaths and quite a bit of damage, I don't forsee this being retired.
  • Noru: 5%A+++(x∞) - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad. Retirement chances could increase pending the release of damage totals.
  • Kulap: 0%, D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
  • Sonca30%, F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths from flooding and stuff could give this a slight shot at retirement.
  • Roke: 0.01%, F- - Pathetic failure, but affected land and lasted two days.
  • Nesat2.5%, C+ - Not much damage caused
  • Haitang2.5%, D- - Not quite an epic failure, but was weak nonetheless. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
  • Nalgae0%F- - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.

PAGASA NAMES

  • All names: 0% - None meet the requirements yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictionsEdit

Might as well make some calls:

JMA names:

  • Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
  • Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
  • Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
  • Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
  • Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
  • Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
  • Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
  • Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
  • Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
  • Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
  • Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.

PAGASA Names:

  • All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.

Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

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