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Current Systems: SUBTROPICAL STORM GUARÁ


This is the forum page for the 2017 Pacific typhoon season.

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Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:January-July, August-September
Storm Event Archives:Noru

Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


OctoberEdit

New month has began, but Typhoon-Land is quiet for the time being. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:19, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVESTEdit

New invest in the Philippine Sea that's up on Tropical Tidbits & NRL, but not on JTWC. Models seem to take it into the Philippines and southern Vietnam but there's not much intensity support (yet). Probably another invest that will fail to develop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:56, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Dead ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

95W.INVESTEdit

Another one in the Philippine Sea. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Low chance according to JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:08, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Now medium chance and moving into the upper Philippines. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
Dead. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:05, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

96W.INVESTEdit

Located near Pohnpei ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:07, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

On JTWC with a low chance. This could be something significant, but only time will tell. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Medium chance. I have a bad feeling... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
Nevermind, it's off JTWC. Maybe still could become something in the long run, but I kinda doubt it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

23W.NONAMEEdit

97W.INVESTEdit

Yet another invest (with a medium chance on JTWC). It's very close to 95W - they are both near the upper Philippines. This basin is receiving a triple threat... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical DepressionEdit

JMA has declared it a TD. It might be a weak Khanun moving through the South China Sea. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

That basin is not being viewed right now due to Nate in the Atlantic basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:45, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
It seems that Atlantic is really stealing all the attention this year... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:50, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
That's true but I like to give near-equal attention to all basins that are producing activity. So thus I'm still paying an ounce of attention to this basin while the Atlantic is busy with Nate and a system near the Azores. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
TCFA issued as it moves through the South China Sea. This could be a repeat of 22W (Nando). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 23WEdit

Now JTWC has it up as a TD. Forecast to briefly become a TS (or possibly be named "Khanun") while taking a similar path to last month's 22W. But unlike 22W, it is not forecast to pass through Hainan and will instead pass a bit south of it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:40, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 23WEdit

Unfortunately, it didn't strengthen to a TS. It made landfall and dissipated. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:37, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, it fortunately didn't become a TS. If it did, much more fatalities would've occurred. The death toll from this awful storm is at 58. TG 2017 11:10, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
The flooding was very severe over there. This just proves that even weak depressions can be disastrous... R.I.P. to everyone who died. :( ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:06, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

24W.KHANUNEdit

98W.INVESTEdit

New invest in the open Pacific Medium chance of development as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression OdetteEdit

Now named Odette by PAGASA. Recognized by JMA as a TD. Still an invest per JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:01, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Khanun seems likely to form from this or the below invest. The WPac is kicking up again. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 16:48, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
TCFA issued. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:26, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette)Edit

Now a TS according to JMA & JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:03, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

It's currently passing through the very northern Philippines as a weak TS. This is forecast to be yet another South China Sea storm. But this time, it could be a formidable typhoon. Hainan and Vietnam should prepare, yet again. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:25, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
In the South China Sea and 50 mph (10-min)/985 mbars. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:24, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette)Edit

Now an STS. Khanun will probably become a typhoon. TG 2017 11:07, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Khanun (Odette)Edit

C2-equivalent as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:53, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette) (2nd time)Edit

Downgraded to a severe tropical storm; still a C2 in the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:27, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette) (2nd time)Edit

Downgraded to TS strength according to JMA - 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbars. Passing near Hainan at this moment and might even die out before reaching Vietnam. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:37, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Khanun (Odette)Edit

And it has died out before reaching Vietnam. 1 fatality has been reported but damage totals are not released yet. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:08, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVESTEdit

Yet another invest. Currently west of Invest 98W and east of the Philippines. Low chance of formation (per JTWC) as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Off of JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:25, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

25W.LANEdit

91W.INVESTEdit

Another one up on Tropical Tidbits. This seems to have quite a bit of model support in the long run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 16:54, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Medium chance of development now. This may turn out to be a big storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:59, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
91W quite honestly scares me. It's got all that ocean in its path & all that model support...~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:27, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
And here comes the first storm to ravage the Philippines this season. I thought we were going to get one earlier, but I guess Lan will be the first C4/C5 typhoon hit them. TG 2017 11:09, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
High chance of development now. The Pacific is now picking up... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 91W)Edit

Now a TD according to JMA. JTWC still considers this as an invest, but not for long. This is shaping up to be a scary storm in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:51, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 25WEdit

And it's now a TD per JTWC's standards. Forecast track shows that it will not hit the Philippines and instead will make a northward turn by midweek. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lan (Paolo)Edit

Now a TS according to JMA. Still a TD per JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:26, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

This is honestly looking very concerning... JMA takes it up to 95 knots (110 mph), JTWC to 115 knots (130 mph). It could easily begin RI or even explosive intensification. We could be looking at the storm that beats Noru and Talim's intensity in several days time. Forecast track takes it on a trajectory towards Japan, so who knows what they might receive in the very long run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:43, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
There's a crapton of shear roaring over Japan right now and it's expected to continue for a while, so while this could become strong out to sea, it will probably weaken significantly or even dissipate before hitting Japan, or turn out to sea. Ryan1000 06:06, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
Good. It better not do anything to land or islands if it's going to be a monster. Current intensity is 45 mph/994 mbars. Both JMA and JTWC agree on that windspeed. But JTWC is now taking it up to 130 knots (150 mph)! Here comes our next super typhoon, and I root for it to get as strong as it can get as long as it spares any islands or land... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:11, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Lan (Paolo)Edit

Lan has been upgraded to a Typhoon. Not looking great at the moment but we'll see what happens. - Garfield

Intensity according to JMA and JTWC is 75 mph, and pressure is 970 mbars. Lan is heading into very favorable conditions, and its look should improve as time goes on. Ready to RI? ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:17, October 18, 2017 (UTC)
Still the same intensity as my previous post, and it has been named "Paolo" by PAGASA since the 16th. But the JTWC now forecasts a possible landfall near Tokyo as a 100 knot, 115 mph beast on the 23rd. I really hope that fails to materialize... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:20, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
Following the development of a well-defined eye in microwave imagery, JMA has upped the 10-min winds to 70 knots, and JTWC has brought the 1-min winds to 75 knots. However, the JMA's forecast peak has dropped to 90 knots, while the JTWC's has dropped to 120 knots. Currently the system doesn't have a clear eye on visible satellite imagery; there was a large, ragged eye earlier but a convective burst just covered it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:13, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
Lan seems to be underachieving. Still 70 knots (80 mph) according to JMA. I guess it probably won't be the super typhoon that the JTWC once predicted. But I guess that's a good thing because we don't want Japan to really suffer in the long run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:45, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

Now a C2; 965 mbars. Lan has performed below expectations (so far). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:33, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

Finally RI'd, up to 110 kt with the JTWC at 15z, and 85 kt per JMA. No doubt will be a C4 by 21z. Kiewii 17:59, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

It’s a C4. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 01:10, October 21, 2017 (UTC)

Storm is heading straight for Tokyo. If it keeps up this path it could cause tens of billions in damage. --Whiplash (talk) 03:34, October 21, 2017 (UTC)
Woah, didn't expect this much intensification! JTWC windspeed is now 135 knots (155 mph), which is on the brink of C5 intensity. JMA has it as only 95 knots (110 mph). This could be a nightmare for Tokyo in the long run. They need to prepare, pack up belongings and find shelter for this could go as far as being Japan's costliest typhoon on record (if the current track keeps up). Tokyo is a megacity, and just imagine what a major typhoon striking such a big metropolis could do in terms of damage... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:24, October 21, 2017 (UTC)
Sadly it seems Lan is the Hurricane Igor of the West Pacific. It peaked at 155 mph when data likely said otherwise. However, it still counts as the second super typhoon of the year. Still has a lot of ground to cover if it wants to reach average. - Garfield
i think maybe the reason why Lan isnt a category 5 is because of its massive size. Its bigger than Tip! -Emmaelise401
I don't often post here, but this storm grabbed my interest when I noticed that the latest track forecast from the JTWC takes this right into Tokyo as a 120 mph category 3 storm. There could be quite a bit of disruption in Tokyo from this storm but hopefully it won't be too terrible for the city. Steve, Tokyo has a very large (more than 20 feet tall) seawall to protect them from the storm surges of typhoons, so I wouldn't go so far as to say Lan would be a Katrina-like storm for Japan. Even Typhoon Ma-On back in 2004, which, surprisingly enough, took almost exactly the same track as Lan and also hit the world's largest city as a 120 mph cat 3 typhoon, only caused a little over 600 million USD in damage to Tokyo. There would have to be a category 5 direct strike on the city like Vera did southwest of Tokyo in 1959 to see a Katrina-like storm disaster for the region, and hopefully we won't see anything like that with Lan. However, even if Tokyo's seawall protects the city from Lan's storm surge, Tokyo should still watch out for strong winds from Lan, which could inflict extensive damage. Ryan1000 23:56, October 21, 2017 (UTC)
Glad that Tokyo constructed a large seawall in case something monstrous would occur. But Lan could still be devastating nonetheless since it's forecast to arrive tomorrow in Tokyo while still a formidable typhoon. I can see there being a potentially big damage bill coming our way after Lan passes through. Hopefully potential damage stays below $1 billion, like Ma-on '04. BTW, the storm's intensity is down to 105 mph (JMA) 145 (JTWC), 930 mbars. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:28, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, Lan is almost as large as Tip in 1979. Lan's diameter of gale winds is at roughly 1,270 miles, 110 miles shy of Tip's 1,380 miles. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 10:13, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

The Huge Typhoon Lan getting ready to make landfall in Japan. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:05, October 22, 2017 (UTC)
This thing made an...erm, LANfall near Tokyo as a 105 mph category 2 storm earlier today, causing torrential rains and strong winds but hopefully little surge damage. Hopefully it's not nearly as bad as Ma-On. Ryan1000 02:20, October 23, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone LanEdit

Surprised that no one updated it, but Lan turned Post-Tropical about 12 hours ago. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:37, October 23, 2017 (UTC)

92W.INVESTEdit

Located just north of the island of Yap. Doesn't have as much model support as 91W. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:31, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

Dead ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:27, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

27W.SAOLAEdit

93W.INVESTEdit

Located near Guam. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:46, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Code orange (JTWC). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:19, October 18, 2017 (UTC)
Code red, TCFA issued. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:20, October 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27WEdit

Now a TD according to both JTWC and JMA. Could steal the name Saola. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:45, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

Upgraded to a TS (in the SSHWS/JTWC scale). Still a TD per JMA standards. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:53, October 20, 2017 (UTC)
Shear has been trying to tear apart this little bugger. But the conditions will improve starting in about 2 days from now, allowing it to potentially become Saola (if it can survive of course, but it can also regenerate in the haven if it dissipates). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:33, October 22, 2017 (UTC)
Now forecasted to be a typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:24, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Saola (Quedan)Edit

Now named Saola. Ryan1000 11:08, October 24, 2017 (UTC)

Yes!!! We finished the whole list! I hope the list will start over again. Still forecasted to be a typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, October 24, 2017 (UTC)
I'm excited that we finished the list for the first time since 2012. Unless we pull a 2010, Damrey will come this year. WPac doesn't really quiet down until December or so. Anyway, this is also looking concerning for Japan in the long run. Hopefully it's nothing bad for them. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:53, October 24, 2017 (UTC)
It's gradually intensifying. Up to 50 mph/992 mbar. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:15, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Saola (Quedan)Edit

STS now, 60 mph/990 mbars. JTWC barely forecasts a typhoon and JMA keeps it below typhoon strength. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 03:25, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

65 mph/985 mbars. Can it become a typhoon? The Ryukyu Islands could receive plenty of impacts though... ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 20:59, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

JTWC upgraded this into a typhoon (80 mph). But JMA still keeps it as a STS (70 mph). Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:42, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Saola (Quedan)Edit

Now extratropical without ever being declared a JMA typhoon. Hopefully it wasn't that bad for Japan and the northern Ryukyu Islands. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 03:31, October 30, 2017 (UTC)

26W.NONAMEEdit

94W.INVESTEdit

Located just west of the central Philippines. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:13, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

Code yellow (JTWC). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:19, October 18, 2017 (UTC)
Now code red. This may develop into a TD. If it does, this will be named Quedan by PAGASA. Not sure if it will become Saola though. Expected to move eastward (into central Philippines). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:38, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26WEdit

Now a TD according to JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:20, October 19, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of 26WEdit

And it's dead due to the giant shear machine that is the WPac this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:14, October 19, 2017 (UTC)

JMA or PAGASA never even declared this system anything at all. What a failure tbh. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:45, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

29W.NONAMEEdit

95W.INVESTEdit

New invest down in the South China Sea. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:17, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

The South China Sea has really been the place of activity this season. Let's see if this becomes Damrey. - Garfield

Up on JTWC with code yellow, but wind shear is not favorable. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 03:27, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Off the JTWC outlook but still active as an invest. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 03:32, October 30, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical DepressionEdit

Woah... it has just rapidly organized! TCFA issued from JTWC, and JMA has declared it a TD. It could become a basin crosser, since models on Tropical Tidbits move the system into the NIO. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 02:06, October 31, 2017 (UTC)

Down to code orange (JTWC), TCFA cancelled. I doubt this will become much anymore, unless it reorganizes in the NIO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:04, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Now code yellow. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:49, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical DepressionEdit

JMA has dropped it, and it is about to cross the Malay peninsula into the NIO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:36, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

Back up to code red, and it may redevelop before fully crossing into the NIO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:15, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 29WEdit

Now back to a TD according to JMA, and JTWC has also declared it a TD. By the way, I've been talking to myself a lot in this section. It would be nice if someone can check out the WPac for a change. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:27, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

29W about to cross into the NIO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:26, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 29WEdit

It has dissipated again, and its remnants are moving into the NIO. I doubt we will see it redevelop there. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:17, November 8, 2017 (UTC)

28W.DAMREYEdit

96W.INVESTEdit

Located far east of Palau and quite close to the Equator at 4.6°N 146.6°E. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 21:05, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Now near the Philippines. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 03:33, October 30, 2017 (UTC)

Gone from the outlook. Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 14:29, October 30, 2017 (UTC)
Actually, I don't think it was ever on the outlook in the first place. But it is still on Tropical Tidbits & NRL, etc. Models on Tropical Tidbits seem to develop this in the South China Sea. ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 02:06, October 31, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical DepressionEdit

Another TD declared by JMA. It's not even on JTWC's outlook! ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 03:15, October 31, 2017 (UTC)

Weird how the JTWC never mentions that system. I'm so shocked right now. Why would they ignore that system? Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 04:54, October 31, 2017 (UTC)
Finally being mentioned on JTWC with code yellow while it moves through the Philippines. A polar opposite occurred just recently - there was 26W which was declared a TD by JTWC but JMA never mentioned it at all :P ~ Steve Sp🎃🎃k MeHaun👻 Me💀 06:31, October 31, 2017 (UTC)
XD Omg, the irony! JMA never mentions 26W while JTWC until now has not mentioned this system.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 14:30, October 31, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression RamilEdit

Named Ramil by PAGASA. Made landfall in the Philippines. Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:04, November 1, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 28W (Ramil)Edit

Was upgraded to a TD yesterday by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:12, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Damrey (Ramil)Edit

And we are back at one. 28W is now a TS according to both JMA and JTWC, thus receiving the name Damrey. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:12, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Here we go; we're restarting the list again. Damrey has been used 4 times now: 2000, 2005, 2012, and this year. As a matter of fact, the name Damrey was the first name on the list to be used back in 2000. In that year, it peaked as a Cat 5 super typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:59, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
Indochina has to deal with yet another threatening tropical cyclone. JTWC already forecasts a typhoon, and it could have potential to rapidly intensify. Southern Vietnam better prepare themselves... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:01, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (Ramil)Edit

Now up to STS strength, 65 mph/985 mbars. Prepare, southern Vietnam! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:46, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Damrey (Ramil)Edit

Even worse. JMA just called a typhoon on Damrey. 75 mph/975 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:26, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

And now the JMA intensity is 80 mph/970 mbars. It should be closing in on peak intensity since landfall is coming by tomorrow. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:51, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC trackfile for 12z gives 85 knots, bringing Damrey up to Category 2 strength. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:21, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC's intensity is now 105 mph, and JMA keeps it at the same windspeed and pressure as my previous post. I believe it has made landfall. Hoping it won't be too bad for the folks in southern Vietnam. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:28, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Damrey (Ramil)Edit

It weakened quickly after landfall and is now degenerated. Goodbye, Damrey! Unfortunately the storm caused 15 deaths :( ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:40, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Woah, death toll is now up to 95! What a terrible storm :/ ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:21, November 8, 2017 (UTC)
Death toll has now increased to 106; this is probably one of the worst storms to hit Vietnam. We might have our third (serious) retirement candidate here (next to Nanmadol and Hato; thanks Steve for correcting me), but Vietnam has an erratic history when it comes to retirement of typhoon names. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:35, November 9, 2017 (UTC)
Now the death toll up to 112. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:09, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Anon 2, don't forget Hato and Doksuri - they are also serious retirement candidates. May God be with those affected by this horrible disaster. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:34, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Steve, I don't think Damrey will be retired. Don't forget about Lingling, which was much stronger and much more devastating. It wasn't retired, so Damrey probably won't either. TG 11:41, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Oh I completely forgot Hato. I however have doubts on Doksuri's retirement and — I agree with TG — even Damrey's. Most of Lingling (2001)'s fatalities occurred in the Philippines though, but Vietnam still suffered from that storm (albeit less severe than Damrey '17 and other weak TDs that proved to be deadlier and more destructive for Vietnam). Anyway, the other deadly storms in the recent 10-15 years — Ketsana and Xangsane — were retired but I personally think that the destruction the two storms caused in the Philippines is the main reason why they got retired. Other storms such as Wutip in 2013, Linda in 1997 (which caused 3000+ deaths in Vietnam) and Cecil in 1989 were not retired (although of course, Cecil and Linda occurred before JMA took over the name list). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:04, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, Damrey was more devastating than Lingling in Vietnam. Compare Lingling's $70.3 million overall damage bill and 18 deaths (only in Vietnam, discounting Philippines) with Damrey's ≥$397 million and 122 deaths (I assume it's all in Vietnam and surrounding regions). Damrey and Doksuri deserve to be retired, and I would condemn those names being snubbed. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:25, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Still, it goes to show that Vietnam has never retired a pacific typhoon name. TG 21:14, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Steve, unless a miracle happens, those names are bound to stay (unfortunately). To be honest, I think Vietnam is the Mexico of the WPac in retiring names, albeit a worse one as it indeed has no record of requesting names to be retired. Anyway, if ever Vietnam requests after this season, I think it is more likely that they would request Doksuri to be retired rather than Damrey, mainly because of the damages Doksuri brought to Vietnam (around $741 million, compared to ~$500 million from Damrey). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:12, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
Surprising that they never retired a storm name before. I'll have to lower the chances for Doksuri and Damrey in my retirement prediction section then. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:54, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

Vietnam is actually more like Haiti of the WPac - after all, infamous storms like Gordon and Hanna'08 didn't get the boot. --182.58.42.207 12:06, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

I agree with you, 182. However, I still hope that Vietnam changes course this season and retire both Doksuri and Damrey (not optimistic that it will happen though). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:35, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

NovemberEdit

97W.INVESTEdit

New invest east of the Philippines. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:31, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

Gone, after a very short time of existing. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:42, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVESTEdit

Just so we won't miss an invest. I remember seeing it on Tropical Tidbits a couple days ago while it was east of the Philippines. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:19, November 8, 2017 (UTC)

30W.HAIKUIEdit

99W.INVESTEdit

Near the Philippines, and JTWC gives it a low chance. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:19, November 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 30W (Salome)Edit

And it formed nonetheless. Recognized as TD 30W by JTWC, named Salome by PAGASA. Currently drenching southern Luzon and the Visayas, days before the start of the ASEAN Summit. (This is like a weaker Damrey as Damrey hit Vietnam before the APEC, lol.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:28, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Haikui (Salome)Edit

Now a tropical storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Another South China Sea storm. This basin continues to bore me. Let's see if Haikui can do something interesting for once. - Garfield

Ikr, this season, tbh, is really boring. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:06, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, this season offers nothing really interesting. Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Haikui might only be as interesting as Khanun, Doksuri, or Damrey. This is yet another typhoon threat to Vietnam. 2017's season is just South China Sea storm after South China Sea storm, or at least it seems like it :/ ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:31, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC has upgraded it to a TS since my last post, and they have it as 45 mph. They don't forecast a typhoon anymore though. JMA keeps it at 40 mph/1002 mbar. I personally have some doubts that it will be a typhoon anymore. Just another boring South China Sea storm. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:39, November 10, 2017 (UTC)
Haikui has went down since it peaked at I think 45 mph (JMA)/50 mph (JTWC) yesterday night. It might not even make it to landfall... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:19, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, this is really dying off fast. I don't think it will hold up any longer. TG 20:45, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Haikui (Salome)Edit

Dissipated in the middle of the South China Sea. What a failure of a storm. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:38, November 13, 2017 (UTC)

31W.KIROGIEdit

90W.INVESTEdit

Rinse and repeat, here comes another boring South China sea storm. - Garfield

Yep... It's code orange (medium chance) on JTWC at this moment. Models seem to take this into southern Vietnam, like where Damrey made landfall. Possible-Kirogi could hamper Damrey recovery efforts. When will a WPac storm form somewhere else for once? ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:25, November 15, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical DepressionEdit

JMA has called it a TD. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:44, November 16, 2017 (UTC)

Code red on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:36, November 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kirogi (Tino)Edit

Both the JTWC and the JMA upgraded this storm to TS thus the JMA named it Kirogi. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:19, November 17, 2017 (UTC)

I have a bit of trivia about this. Kirogi's naming marks the 14th named storm to exist in the South China Sea this season. With 25 total storms, that is over 50% of the total storms this season. Why can't the WPAC produce anywhere else? - Garfield

Insane. I guess the SCS is the most favorable region this year, and other regions are less favorable... anyway, it's yet another boring South China Sea storm. None of the agencies forecast anything beyond 60 mph (50 knots). It's also forecast to reach southern Vietnam. Think of Kirogi as a weaker, slimmed-down Damrey. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:54, November 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kirogi (Tino)Edit

Wow, JMA is already giving up on this. A disgraceful failure... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:52, November 18, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Kirogi (Tino)Edit

Went into Vietnam and dissipated. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:16, November 19, 2017 (UTC)

91W.INVESTEdit

Finally we have something that is far away from the South China Sea. It's located way out near Kosrae, and monitored on JTWC with code yellow. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:16, November 19, 2017 (UTC)

Now code orange. Kai-tak? ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:07, November 20, 2017 (UTC)

Nevermind, no longer on JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:04, November 20, 2017 (UTC)

92W.INVESTEdit

According to Storm2K, this very briefly existed near the International Dateline and Equator (and the Marshall Islands) around Thanksgiving-Black Friday. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:56, November 28, 2017 (UTC)

93W.INVESTEdit

Up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL as a VERY equatorial system in the South China Sea, near Malaysia. I highly doubt 93W will become much until after it crosses into the NIO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:56, November 28, 2017 (UTC)

I've been getting rain here in Singapore from this thing (but now it's just cloudy). Anyway here's a nice satellite loop of 93W and a bit of 96S at the bottom. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:51, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
Models were showing this develop into Kai-tak before the storm below, so it is possible that it could develop and become a re-Vamei. TG My Birthday 21:24, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
Actually it's still more north than Vamei. It's also moving over Malaysia and expected to cross into the NIO soon, so if it does develop, it should be there. Now code orange on JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:03, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
See here for further comments on this system. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:26, December 1, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVESTEdit

And another one near 3.9°N 156.1°E as stated on Tropical Tidbits. This may become Kai-tak and affect the Philippines in the long run. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:03, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

This is going to be the late-season monster this year, as we have seen every year since 2010. TG My Birthday 21:25, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
It's way out there and south of Pohnpei, currently. This is one to watch for, as it could be 2017's late-season beast. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:35, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
Considering this year's track record i'm skeptical of this storm, but I hope it happens. Very interesting track if GFS pans out. - Garfield
No longer on NRL/Tropical Tidbits. Kai-tak will have to wait. It's getting doubtful that we will see a late-season monster this year, unless we get another Nock-ten. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:18, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

DecemberEdit

95W.INVESTEdit

Currently located very close to the equator between the Bismarck Archipelago and the Micronesian islands. Low chance on JTWC. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:52, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

Dead. Come on Kai-tak, we are waiting... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:34, December 7, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. TG 2017 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's RetirementsEdit

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z)(Category colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

International names:

  • Muifa: Grade: Z Retirement: 0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
  • Merbok: Grade: D+ Retirement: 5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
  • Nanmadol: Grade: C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
  • Talas: Grade: F Retirement: 15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
  • Noru: Grade: A+++++ Retirement: 5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
  • Kulap: Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
  • Sonca: Grade: Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
  • Roke: Grade: Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
  • Nesat: Grade: D Retirement: 1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
  • Haitang: Grade: F Retirement: 5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
  • Nalgae: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.
  • Banyan: Grade: C- Retirement: 0% - Failed to meet all forecasts and also managed to become the first ever Typhoon Banyan, resulting in a grade higher than a D+. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 14:06, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Hato: Grade: C Retirement: 90% - Hato was the worst storm in half a century for Macau. That will most likely make Hato leave the lists, but then again it's China. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
  • Pakhar: Grade: D+ Retirement: 1% - We'll see what happens in Macau, as it just got whiplashed by Hato. Otherwise, Hato was a very pathetic storm. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:10, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
  • Sanvu: Grade: B- Retirement: 0.01% - Sanvu defied a few of the first forecasts for the storm, which was cool. Sanvu unfortunately killed someone in the Mariana Islands, but that won't get Sanvu retired.
  • Mawar: Grade: D Retirement: 0.01% - Another Pakhar.
  • Guchol: Grade: Z- Retirement: 0% - Unfortunately, my two favorite names were used for crappy, pathetic storms this year. This pulled a Roke-esque fail (my first favorite name), and took the same path as Hato, Pakhar, and Mawar all over again. Tbh, these South China Sea storms are very boring this year. TG 2017 21:06, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
  • Talim: Grade: B Retirement: 30% - Talim was a very powerful typhoon, obviously, and struck Japan after weakening some. Two are dead, and flooding was very significant, which could prompt a slight chance of this storm's retirement.
  • Doksuri: Grade: C Retirement: 0% - Even though this was a bad storm, Vietnam will probably never retire a storm in the West Pacific basin.
  • Khanun: Grade: C Retirement: 25% - Typhoons at peak intensity don't slam into Hainan very often. Especially in Northern Hainan Island. Khanun did that and caused about $200 million in damages. I'm not expecting it to go because China is like the Mexico of the WPac.
  • Lan: Grade: A- Retirement: 10% - The second largest cyclone on record, Lan did very minor damage to Japan. If Lan had become a C5 super typhoon, the grade would've been an A+++++. Good job, Lan.
  • Saola: Grade: D Retirement: 0.01% - Another storm that failed to meet its prediction. Waste of a good name.
  • Damrey: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Even though Damrey killed 125 people, the country of Vietnam has never retired a storm name and never will.
  • Haikui: Grade: F Retirement: 0.01% - And the 2012 snubbed name of the year comes back, only as a tiny weakling that barely did anything. TG 13:25, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

PAGASA names:

  • All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. TG 2017 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Final retirements:

  • Retired (81-100%): Hato
  • Maybe retired (40-79%): Nanmadol, Sonca
  • Honorable mentions (20-39%): Talim, Khanun
  • Not retired (≤19%): All others TG 2017 21:14, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of RetirementsEdit

50% or more=italics

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA)

(Category colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

No grading because I'm too lazy to do all of this.

Here goes nothing...

International

Storm Name Chance of Retirement Comments

Muifa

0.1% A weak storm that effected the Caroline Islands. I don't think I will see that going.
Merbok 2.5% Made landfall in South China causing $37.2 million and only 1 death. That isn't enough to be retired though.
Nanmadol 60%

Okay, I'm sick of this now that I tracked it. This storm made landfall in Japan caused $982 million of damages (Which is just short of getting $1 billion of damages) and caused 36 deaths. This may be retired due to that.

Talas 10% This storm made landfall in Vietnam causing $5.6 million and 14 deaths.
Noru 1%

Best typhoon I ever witnessed for two things.

First, it had exploded from a TS to a C5 in just one day. One day. I mean, holy shoot!

Second, it lasted for about 22 days of the West Pacific. 22 days. That is the longest storm I've ever tracked.

It caused 2 deaths before making landfall on the mainland Japan. Damages unknown. I'll give this a straight A+++.

Kulap 0% A somewhat weak but beautiful tropical storm that stayed a few degrees west of the International Date Line. It defined the forecast though.
Roke 0% A short lived storm that failed to actually make landfall on China (it was downgraded into a remnant low before landfall). Because of that, no deaths or damages are reported.
Sonca

25%

And then this storm yet again made landfall in Vietnam. It caused $7.3 million of damages and 31 deaths. 23 of those deaths came from the worst flash floods in Thailand in years. This has a good chance to be retired.

Nesat 2.5%

It made landfall on China and Taiwan causing at least 2 deaths and $6.06 million in damages. I don't think this would be going.

Haitang 2.5%

Made landfall on Taiwan and China. It caused $3.83 million but no deaths. I don't think this would be going either.

Nalgae 0%

A pathetic fishspinner that stayed out to sea.

Banyan 0% A total fishspinner. Disappointed that it never got to a C3 or higher but at least it attained typhoon status.
Hato 85%

It just RI'd right to a Category 3. It caused 26 deaths and $2.89 billion of damages. It will be most likely gone from the list.

Pakhar 1% Damage totals are $49 million and it caused 8 deaths.
Sanvu 0.01% A fishspinner that somehow drowned a woman.
Mawar 0% Made landfall in China but didn't cause any deaths or major damages.
Guchol 0% Impacted some areas but same with Mawar, it didn't cause any deaths or major damages. That was an epic fail btw.
Talim 15% Caused 2 deaths in Japan and damages are $56.6 million making retirement limited.
Doksuri 60% Made landfall in China causing $741 million of damages and 24 deaths. That's an obvious retirement candidate.
Khanun 20% Caused $204 million and only 1 death. I doubt it will be retired.
Lan 20% Became a large typhoon, almost as big as Tip in 1979. The large typhoon made landfall in Japan causing 8 deaths and $21.1 of damages.
Saola 2.5% It didn't make landfall in Japan but it impacted them, Mariana and Caroline Islands. Damages are unknown and no deaths have been reported.
Damrey 0.01% Made landfall on Vietnam causing severe impacts. It was an awful storm for them. At least 151 deaths had occurred. Damages are more than $901 million. Since Vietnam hasn't retired a name before, the chance of retirement is so low.
Haikui 0% Caused a little impact in the Philippines. No deaths and damages are reported.
Kirogi TBA Currently active.

PAGASA

Storm Name(s) Chance of Retirement Comments
All the names 0% No, just no. They don't meet the requirements of being retired.

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated by: --68.106.0.77 23:35, November 17, 2017 (UTC))

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

A2.0's Retirement ForecastEdit

JMA namesEdit

  • Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
  • Merbok - 0% - same as above.
  • Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
  • Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
  • Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
  • Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
  • Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
  • Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
  • Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
  • Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
  • Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
  • Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA namesEdit

  • Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
  • Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
  • Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from SteveEdit

Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.

  • International: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms excluding PAGASA storms.
  • PAGASA: Same as above, except for storms in the PAGASA area of responsibility.
  • In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
  • How Far Can This Season Go?: Lists the names of every potential storm that could form from here on out and the chances that they may form by the end of the season.
  • Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly.

  • Muifa: 0.00001%, Z - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this my worst grade.
  • Merbok: 5%, D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
  • Nanmadol: 75%, D - Has a likely chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
  • Talas10%, D - Retirement is doubtful. Its 2011 incarnation has done much worse.
  • Noru: 7.5%A+++(x∞) - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad.
  • Kulap: ~0%, D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
  • Sonca20%, F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths and damage from flooding (including from Thailand's worst flash floods in years) could give this a slight shot at retirement. Indochina's retirement record is not that great however.
  • Roke: 0.1%, Z - Pathetic failure, but brought rain to land and lasted two days. Also rose the HKO typhoon warning signal to 8.
  • Nesat5%, C - Not much damage caused, but sadly 2 deaths.
  • Haitang2.5%, F - Weak, but 50 mph/985 mbars make it avoid the Z classifications. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
  • Nalgae~0%F - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.
  • Banyan~0%C+ - Became a C2-equivalent, but had potential to get stronger.
  • Hato85%B - RI'd to exceed all predictions, but was very destructive. As one of the worst storms in Macau's recent history, 26 fatalities and a whooping $4.31 billion in damage will almost certainly make this leave the lists. China's track record kind of sucks though. If it isn't retired, I would probably faint.
  • Pakhar2.5%D - Failed to meet initial forecasted intensity (but still became a STS). 8 deaths and $49.7 million isn't enough for retirement.
  • Sanvu: 0.1%, B- - Mostly a fishspinner, but affected the Mariana Islands and caused a 33-year old woman to drown.
  • Mawar: 0.00001%, D - Minimal damage and no deaths. Won't be retired
  • Guchol: 0.00001%, Z-(x∞) - Slightly affected land like Mawar did, with no damage/deaths. But this was an epic fail, waste of a good name.
  • Talim: 15%, A+ - Caused some record 24-hour rainfall and caused hundreds of thousands to evacuate. This has a very small retirement chance.
  • Doksuri: 50%, B- - Considered to be the "most powerful storm in a decade" for Vietnam. 36 were killed, and Vietnam was seriously impacted. Vietnam has never retired a storm name before however, so I'm giving a coin toss.
  • Khanun: 7.5%, B- - Doesn't appear that it was too bad throughout its path. Damage totals shouldn't be enough for retirement. But it unfortunately caused 1 fatality.
  • Lan: 10%, A+ - After becoming one of the largest TCs on record, it caused plenty of damage in Japan. 8 deaths have unfortunately occurred though. Grade would have been higher if it didn't scupper C5.
  • Saola: 5%, C- - Wikipedia still doesn't report any damage, but it caused no deaths so I'm pretty sure that Saola is staying.
  • Damrey: 50%, C- - Will possibly be retired due to 151 deaths and significant damage. Probably one of the worst storms to ever hit Vietnam. I would usually give a much higher chance for storms like this, but like Doksuri, I'm giving it a coin toss because Vietnam has never retired a storm name before and Indochina is overall bad with retirements. I hope they can start to retire names after this year though because I would condemn Damrey and Doksuri being snubbed, especially Damrey.
  • Haikui: 0.1%, Z - Pathetic, laughable fail that scuppered an initial forecast for a typhoon and faceplanted in the middle of the South China Sea, much to the entertainment of the wiki's audience. Haikui affected the Philippines so it gets a very tiny retirement chance.
  • Kirogi: 0.00001%, Z-(x∞) - A weak name-stealer (even weaker than Haikui), and yet another boring South China Sea storm. It still slightly affected land though.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.


Retirement percentage colors: 0%, ~0%, 0.00001%, 0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99999%, ~100%, 100%

The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.


Intensity colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), C5 (≥185 mph)


Grading colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, Z, Z-(x∞)

  • All names: 0% - None meet the requirements yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.


Retirement percentage colors: 0%, ~0%, 0.00001%, 0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99999%, ~100%, 100%

The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are the only percentages used in this basin. Check "other info" for the reason why.


Intensity colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), C5 (≥185 mph)


Grading colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, Z, Z-(x∞)

Certainly Retired: Hato
Likely Retired: Nanmadol
Possibly Retired: Doksuri, Damrey
Probably Not Retired: Merbok, Talas, Noru, Sonca, Nesat, Talim, Khanun, Lan, Saola
Not Retired: Muifa, Kulap, Roke, Haitang, Nalgae, Banyan, Pakhar, Sanvu, Mawar, Guchol, Haikui, Kirogi, all PAGASA storms that have formed so far


Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):

  • No storms are currently active

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-85%
  • "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
  • "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
  • "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

International Names:

  • Chances that Kai-tak will be used: 50% - Downgraded to a coin toss. Kai-tak may or may not come.
  • Chances that Tembin will be used: 20% - At this rate will probably be a 2018 storm.
  • Chances that Bolaven will be used: 5% - Most likely will be used in 2018.
  • Chances that Sanba will be used: 0.1% - I don't think December will suddenly become hyperactive.
  • Chances that Jelawat or anything beyond will be used: ~0% - This will be a 2018 storm, no matter what.

PAGASA Names:

  • Chances that Urduja will be used: 40% - There's still an outside chance.
  • Chances that Vinta will be used: 15% - Getting doubtful that we will get up to here.
  • Chances that Wilma will be used: 1% - Most likely will not be used, unless we get a miracle explosion.
  • Chances that Yasmin or anything beyond will be used: ~0% - Will not happen, for sure.

  • The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
  • This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
  • The color for the ≥185 mph C5 is made up and not part of the official color classification.
  • A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
  • Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
  • Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictionsEdit

Might as well make some calls:

JMA names:

  • Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
  • Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
  • Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
  • Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
  • Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
  • Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
  • Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
  • Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
  • Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
  • Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
  • Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
  • Banyan - 0% - Brought waves to Wake Island, but no damage or deaths were reported.
  • Hato - 85% - While China has snubbed some destructive, billion-dollar storms before, but Hato did almost 3 billion dollars in damage to the area around Hong Kong and killed 26, so I believe chances are in favor of Hato going.
  • Pakhar - 7% - Caused minor impacts to southern China, but Hato was much worse.
  • Sanvu - 1% - Killed a person, but that's it.
  • Mawar - 1% - Minor effects in China.
  • Guchol - 1% - ^^
  • Talim - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths to Japan, but Japan has seen worse than Talim.
  • Doksuri - 75% - Was reportedly the strongest typhoon to hit Vietnam in 10 years and one of the costliest storms in the country's history, with more than 700 million dollars in damage to the country. I'd say this has a fairly good shot at retirement.
  • Khanun - 10% - Caused extensive impacts here and there, but it's probably not enough.
  • Lan - 8% - Hit Tokyo as a cat 2, but the world's largest city is well-prepared for typhoons, and with only 21 million in damage and 7 deaths, I have a hard time seeing how this will get retired.
  • Saola - 2% - Skimmed southern Japan, but wasn't too bad for them.
  • Damrey - ?? - Hit southern Vietnam, but impacts aren't known just yet.

PAGASA Names:

  • All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.

Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Replacement namesEdit

-Nanmadol replacement options- Since Nanmadol is a landmark in Micronesia, here are some replacement options:

  • Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
  • Sawartik - The twin waterfall of Sawarlap
  • Winipat - A mountain
  • Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia (Best in my opinion)

-Hato replacement options- Since Hato is a name of a constellation (Columba):

  • Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
  • Okami - wolf/Lupus (My favorite)
  • Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

I do know that it is much harder to figure out the replacement names of a WPac storm, but I tried to think of the best options. Tell me which one is your favorite. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:40, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Forgot to add here, but my best picks would either be Sawartik or Lelu for Nanmadol. For Hato, I would choose Tori or Okami. TG 2017 13:43, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
Unlike replacement names in other basins, guessing the replacement names of retired JMA names is almost impossible since they don't have to start with the retiree's first letter, or be Human/English names. But it's a good idea to look at the country affected to get an idea of what names could replace the name in question. I'll pick Lelu and Okami out of those names, but there are many more possibilities. Ryan1000 00:55, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
I've subdivided replacements for each storm below, much like what was done for the Atlantic. TG 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

Potentially for NanmandolEdit

Okay, so I'm gonna sort this out like the Atlantic. Nanmandol is a landmark in Micronesia, so I have names below:

  • Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
  • Sawartik - The counterpart/twin waterfall of Sawarlap.
  • Winipat - A mountain in Micronesia.
  • Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia
  • Gilbert - Named after Gilbert Islands in Micronesia
  • Yosiwo - Named after Vice President Yosiwo P. George.

Out of these, I think that Winipat or Lelu should be chosen. Then again, there are hundreds of more names that could be selected that are not on this list. TG My Birthday 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

Potentially for SoncaEdit

Sonca is a type of Vietnamese bird. Since Sonca has caused many deaths in Thailand and major flooding, I have found a few names to replace it:

  • Shama - A type of Vietnamese bird.
  • Anas - Duck
  • Turnix - Buttonquail
  • Coturnix - Quail
  • Tringa - Greenshank

Out of these names, I believe that Shama or Tringa would be the best to replace Sonca. I know that it is very hard to predict replacements in this basin, and this is no exception. TG My Birthday 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

For HatoEdit

Hato's damages range from $4.31 billion to $18.7 billion, and the latter would make it the costliest typhoon on record. Since Hato is a constellation (Columba), below are names that could replace it:

  • Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
  • Okami - wolf/Lupus
  • Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

Hato is probably the best retirement candidate this year. Out of these names, I choose Okami. TG My Birthday 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

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