Changes: Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

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Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future Start

I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

July

Similar to the AHS forum, I will start this section slightly early. I'm not sure what to expect from the EPAC this month, but I hope the basin can pick up the pace. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:30, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

94E.INVEST

AOI:GFS twin storms

The GFS has been consistently predicting two TCs in the Epac. The first develops around 150 hrs out, reaching peak at 970 mb by 216 hrs, becoming post tropical by 252 hrs. The second, a weaker 990 mb develops 240 hrs out and becomes a PTC by 336 hrs. 182.58.36.75 10:19, July 1, 2017 (UTC)

Now they're on the TWO. The both of the systems are 0/20 as of now. :) 70.190.5.175 03:43, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

One of the two systems is at 0/30 now. :) 70.190.5.175 05:31, July 2, 2017

The two are intensifying right now. One system is at 20/40 while the other is at 0/60. There systems will become Eugene and Fernanda once these are tropical storms. :) 70.190.5.175 22:56, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

94E.INVEST

The one at 20/50 has been invested. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:36, July 3, 2017 (UTC)

The invest is up to 30/50. :) 70.190.5.175 16:38, July 3, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 60/60. :) 70.190.5.175 03:07, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

While 94L is picking up organization in the Atlantic, the EPac is kicking up as well with this thing. 94E is now up to 70% for 2 and 5 days, and an AOI behind this is also at 70% for 5 days, and a third storm could be coming behind that one. Even if this becomes Fernanda, NHC doesn't expect it to be too strong. But we could be at Greg or Hilary if all 3 of these AOI's develop and another one forecast by the GFS in a week or two. July is like the EPac's August, usually 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major form in the month. Ryan 1000 15:36, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

At 70/70, but with very limited time to develop into something. Cold water and less favorable conditions are arriving after 2 days. I hope this is a depression max, as I do not wanna see the name "Eugene" be wasted by a failure. This will not be Fernanda as the other 2 AOIs are going to develop after this one. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 21:56, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 80/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:45, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

Dropped to 60/60, not expected to form. TG 2017 17:47, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

Dropped further down to 30/30, time's running out for this one. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:18, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

Yep, there is no hope for this one anymore (unless it rapidly organizes at the last minute at unprecedented pace and becomes a brief TD, very unlikely). I hate how this had to flop. :( Eugene is going to come from the 20/80 AOI. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:54, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

10/10 right now, definitely not developing. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:16, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

RIP, gone. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:39, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

05E.EUGENE

AOI:GFS twin storms (cont.)

This section's for the AOI at 0/60. Generally models are more enthusiastic about this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:36, July 3, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 0/70. :) 70.190.5.175 03:05, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

This should be Eugene or Fernanda and hopefully be our next hurricane. I hope this is Eugene as the 70/70 system way in front of it is entering unfavorable conditions soon and will be nothing bigger than a weak fail and name-stealer if it becomes a TS. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 22:00, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

This storm and the one before that has an 80/80 chance has been dropped by models. TG 2017 13:21, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

20/80, maybe this will become Eugene. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:21, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

This should be Eugene 'cuz the other system is dying and no longer has a chance. Maybe this will even beat Dora to become the strongest of the season (too early to predict though). ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:57, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

Now up to 30/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:16, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

95E.INVEST

Invested and up to 50/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:42, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

Now 80/90, getting ready to form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:48, July 7, 2017 (UTC

90/90. TD5 is coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

100/100, yet they haven't initiated advisories. (But they said they will.) TG 2017 18:14, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene

Unexpectedly jumped straight to TS strength. 35 kt/1006 mbar. TG 2017 21:45, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

All tropical cyclone forecast models agree on a parallel the coast offshore track as Eugene remains on the western edge of a ridge. All models show intensification, with the GFS making this around 85 knots, GFS-P has 90 knots, ECMWF has 65 knots, HWRF has 75 knots, HWRF-P has 85 knots, and HMON has 85 knots, SHIPS/LGEM has 80 knots. However, given that this will be moving over the sharp SST's of the California Current, I think most of the guidance peaks this too late, and unless this moves slower than expected, Eugene will be over 25C water in 60 hours time. Latest SAB T number is at T1.5. With 48 hours left, the standard 1/T number a day seems too low, which would bring this to T3.5/55 knots in two days, given that for now the waters it is over is very warm and the shear is less than 10 knots. The so-called rapid intensification of T1.5/day seems more reasonable, and that would bring this to T4.5 in 48 hours. I'd expect a peak of 80 knots, but this could be conservative if it ramps up tonight. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 23:26, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Well that was a bit of a surprise to me. It will stay well away from Mexico. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:52, July 7, 2017 (UTC

If this was heading more west of north it'd be a more powerful storm, maybe even a major hurricane, but with the northward movement expected to come from this, I doubt Eugene will get too strong. Cat 1, maybe 2, is the strongest it'll probably get. Also don't forget that storms are numbered with an "E" instead of "L" suffix in the EPac. Ryan 1000 04:31, July 8, 2017 (UTC)

It intensified to 50 kn (60 mph) and 1000 mbar. Also I doubt that Eugene will be a major hurricane. Hi-70.190.5.175 16:10, July 8, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene

Scratch what everyone said above. Eugene is rapidly intensifying and the new NHC forecast calls for the hurricane to reach winds of 105 mph. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Eugene will become the EPAC's first major hurricane of the season - that is if this intensification rate that's going on continues. Owen 03:19, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Eugene's forward speed is a lot slower than what was earlier forecast, so it looks like it'll have more time to intensify than previously thought. Wouldn't surprise me if this becomes a major at this rate. Ryan 1000 12:31, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

3 hours late, but NHC explicitly forecasts this to become a major now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:47, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Eugene

Here's the first major hurricane of the season. It just intensified into a major hurricane (Category 3). It's currently at 115 mph/965 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:43, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

I am a bit surprised it got this far. Eugene should be nearing its peak due to upcoming cool waters and unfavorable conditions. It still has about a 12-hour window for further strengthening before the conditions hit. I hope it is able to get as far as C4 before the weakening begins. Show off your best possible performance Eugene! :) ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 20:15, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene (2nd time)

Weakened into a Cat. 2 with 105 mph/972 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, July 10, 2017 (UTC)

Now weakened into a Category 1 hurricane. 85 mph/982 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:24, July 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene (2nd time)

Weakened further into a TS with 70 mph/990 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:54, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

Eugene's dying quickly. Winds are down to 65 mph and convection is warming fast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:13, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

Now winds are down to 50 mph and pressure up to 1001 mbar. Eugene won't hold on anymore. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:21, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

At least it became a major hurricane (but barely). Eugene is going to die soon. Now time to focus on 96E, which could be another hurricane. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 01:04, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Now weakened to 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:08, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eugene

Down to 30 kts/1006 mbar, should cease to be a tropical cyclone later today. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 14:52, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene

And he's gone...until 2023. Ryan 1000 00:15, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:West of Central America

This newly formed system is at 0/20. :) 70.190.5.175 03:05, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

The EPac is firing up! We could be up as far as Greg by next week. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 22:02, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

Off of the TWO. TG 2017 13:20, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

06E.FERNANDA

AOI:South of Mexico

Another disturbance just formed. It's at 10/20. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:34, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

Now up to 20/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:55, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

30/60, and the 06z GFS shows this becoming a powerful hurricane and surviving to the WPAC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:22, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

96E.INVEST

Invested and up to 60/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:11, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

70/80, it has a shot of being named Fernanda. Hi!-70.190.5.175 22:45, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

Now this pretty much will be Fernanda... 90/90 and nothing is really stopping it. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 01:06, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E

Now a TD. Forecast shows a hurricane, but a major is not out of the question. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 02:59, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda

35 kts/1006 mbar. Forecast peak of 90 kts unchanged from previous advisory. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 14:51, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

I am really not sure if I am allowed here, so I apologize if I am not, but HOLY COW. This storm looks like it could be something. There are warm waters everywhere, low shear, and the potential to track out to Hawaii. I would think at least a Category 4 out of this system. Maybe even a cat 5, which I guess is unlikely, but the setup is just too perfect for this storm not to succeed. --Emma and V 15:58, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Looking good for Fernanda but I suggest that it should at least intensify into a Category 1. Well I won't be surprised if this were to intensify into a major hurricane or/and crossover the 3 Pacific basins. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:14, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda will likely be the biggest ACE producer and strongest storm of the season. The ECMWF and GFS and GFS-P have gradually trended more bullish and the SHIPS/LGEM have a Cat 2. HWRF/HWFR-P/HMON are all quite aggressive, calling for at least 90 knots in the 12z cycle. Waters are over 28C, and shear should remain low until at least 140W, although some increase in shear is possible after that time, which is about six days away anyway. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 23:13, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

NHC is only calling for a cat 2, but given the environmental conditions in front of Fernanda, I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a major hurricane, maybe even a long-lived cat 4. If it makes it to the CPac, it'll probably pass south of Hawaii like most July storms do, but it could bring some welcome rain to the state down the road. Ryan 1000 00:15, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Now the NHC forecasts it to be a major hurricane. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:04, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda looks like it could get pretty powerful. Here comes our next major (and as 70 said, the NHC is forecasting it as well). I personally predict a peak of C4 from this thing. Even C5 may not be out of the question, but Fernanda would have to try its best in order to reach that strength. I forsee a potential CPac crosser and maybe (but hopefully not) a Hawaii threat in the distant long run. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 03:59, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

A C4 is now what the NHC predicts, even though winds are only at 45 knots. Knowing long-term NHC forecasts to be conservative in the long run, a C5 is a real possibility right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Fernandra is looking so good it's scary. The winds are up to 55 knots, and she looks beautiful on the satellite. Thank god it's staying away from land. --Emma and V 13:08, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Emma, if I recall correctly, you are not allowed to edit on the Hypothetical Hurricanes Wikia. However, Hurricanes Wikia is an independent Wikia, and any restrictions you have there should not apply here. As for Fernanda, it is indeed coming together more rapidly, now that the surrounding shear is decreasing. The storm's pressure has also fallen to 1001 mbar (hPa), and as it moves towards the CPAC, it should continue intensifying. As a matter of fact, based on the latest NHC discussion, SHIPS shows a greater than 50 percent chance of a 45 kt wind increase in Fernanda over the next 48 hours. The NHC has accordingly adjusted the forecast peak up to 120 knots (140 mph), but if Fernanda can organize itself and intensify quick enough, we may see the first July EPAC Category 5 hurricane since Elida in 2002. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:21, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Just making sure mate, lol. Anyway, Fernandra already seems to be organizing. Hopefully it don't become no 155 mph Failicia. That would honestly suck, lol. Emma and V 15:27, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Gah, 2 edit conflicts. :/ Anyways, the long-range forecasts from the global models on this keep it south of Hawaii due to their subtropical ridge as I mentioned before, but the latest runs of the GFS and Euro don't take it that far south of the Big Island, and as a hurricane too, so it's possible Fernanda could bring some impacts to Hawaii down the road. Might be something to watch out for. Ryan 1000 15:34, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

I hope it keeps south of Hawaii, as we have had plenty of storms impacting the island chain or coming close enough to probably cause impacts over the past few years (Iselle, Ana from 2014 - Guillermo from 2015 - Darby, Lester, Madeline from 2016 to give examples) and they need a break. Anyway, this looks likely to be a C5 if it rapidly intensifies. Could this be the first EPac C5 since the record-breaking Patricia? ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 17:16, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Fernanda

After being the only storm of 2011 to not reach hurricane intensity, Fernanda has now just done so! The NHC has raised the storm's intensity to 70 knots (80 mph)/990 mbar (hPa) based on satellite estimates, but they note that Fernanda could actually have higher winds at the moment. With an eye possibly developing and shear's impact lessening on the hurricane, Fernanda has a huge potential to continue rapidly intensifying. SHIPS now shows a greater than 50 percent chance of a 45 kt wind increase within the next 36 hours, and the NHC has nudged Fernanda's forecast peak up again to 125 knots (145 mph). However, assuming an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) does not occur, the NHC warns that the hurricane could intensify even beyond these forecast winds, if not become a Category 5. Regardless, dry air and cooler SSTs should prompt Fernanda's weakening in about 72 to 96 hours. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 22:03, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Now it's up to 80 mph and down to 988 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:52, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

100 mph/975 mbars. Fernanda is potentially on the verge of RI as it develops a small eye under a tight CDO. Ryan 1000 13:18, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Fernanda

Up to 115 mph and 969 mbars with the latest advisory. She's exploding right now, might become a cat 4 as soon as tonight. Ryan 1000 14:51, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Fernandra aint playing! She already got the new do, and that eye too. Emma and V 15:48, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

She is rapidly intensifying right now. She has cleared out an eye in which is visible. This may have a chance to intensify into a Category 5 (unlikely). Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:37, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Rapid intensification at its finest. Fernanda is just taking off. Currently a cat 3, and the NHC is predicting a cat 4. Leeboy100 ^Hello! 18:00, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

She did it. She's now a C4 at 115 kt/960 mbar. TG 2017 21:01, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

It is getting really powerful, and a C5 might actually be a real possibility before the weakening begins by late weekend/early next week. I hope it does become a C5. It's a fishspinner, so why not? ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 22:51, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda is a very small hurricane, like Patricia was, so as fast as Fernanda is strengthening, it may weaken just as quickly when it encounters unfavorable conditions. It currently is at 145 mph/947 mbars, but barring an ERC, it could easily make it to cat 5 sometime later today, since it still has some favorable conditions for another two days or so before cooler SST's take their toll on the tiny storm by mid to late next week. Ryan 1000 04:44, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

If this intensifies into a Category 5, then it will be the 16th Cat. 5 hurricane in this basin and the first one of the basin since Patricia in 2015. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:47, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Damn, inner core convection appears to be warming. Looks like it's going to undergo an ERC, which will probably kill the intensification trend. Pressure up to 948 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

The current intensity is at 140 mph/952 mbar and according to the Tropical Weather Discussion, it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. After recovery should occur later today, Fernanda has about another day or so to strengthen to a C5 before unfavorable conditions begin taking over. I'd give it something like a 25-30% chance of strengthening to a C5. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 17:14, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

The intensity is now down to 130 mph/955 mbar but expected to intensify later on. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:10, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda's eyewall appears to be clearing out, and I hope this is a sign that it will begin reintensifying shortly. Although the hurricane may not be able to attain Category 5 status, it still has a decent chance of reaching its peak intensity once more in the next couple days before another ERC and/or cooler water and drier air take its toll once again on the system. Motionwise, Fernanda is now expected to begin moving towards the WNW closer to the Hawaiian Islands, although it will likely not make it to the archipelago. On a side note, even though I realize this comment is off-topic, I would like to direct everyone's attention to a major modification in the intensity of Cyclone Winston from February 2016. It turns out that Winston was much stronger than what RSMC Nadi operationally reported. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:42, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda has continued weakening, as concentric eyewalls are still present in this system. As a result, the NHC has since lowered the hurricane's intensity to 110 knots (125 mph)/957 mbar (hPa). Fernanda still has a 24 to 48 hour-long window to regain intensity, but the NHC has lowered their secondary peak down to 120 knots (140 mph). Also, the hurricane is beginning to move to the WNW, and this motion should continue until the subtropical ridge takes over in a few days. Also, due to the effects of cooler SSTs, dry air, and increasing shear, Fernanda is now forecast to enter the CPAC as only a strong tropical storm. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 03:13, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

(←)Now back to a category 4. 130 mph, 953 mb. And, something amazing has happened within the eye of the storm. The stadium effect is taking place, which has happened in some of the most intense cyclones on record: Ivan, Wilma, Patricia, Haiyan, etc. I feel like there is still a chance for it to become a category 5, but if it doesn't happen today or earlier tomorrow, that's it. Because the NHC is saying that this thing will fall apart once it hits colder water. Leeboy100 ^Hello! 13:01, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda has completed its first ERC. Also, this imagery may confirm the stadium effect; I can make out an eyewall, but Fernanda's center seems to be cloud-covered. Nevertheless, this may not be a guarantee that Fernanda will now become a Category 5. It is possible that the hurricane will undergo another ERC before conditions become unfavorable in another day or so. While the NHC does not forecast any additional reintensification from Fernanda, I will not be surprised if the hurricane's winds reach 120 knots (140 mph) again at the 2100 UTC advisory. On a side note, the NHC acknowledged that it is quite unusual to see a hurricane as strong as Fernanda where this system is currently active. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 17:24, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

The stadium effect could give it a boost, but the chances of it becoming a C5 are not that good. A miracle will have to happen over the next 24 hours before unfavorable conditions take over for it to become a C5. NHC doesn't even strengthen it past its current intensity anymore. At most, this might strengthen to its previous peak intensity, and a C5 is probably not going to occur. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 18:34, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Come ON, I wanted to see her become a Category 5! Fernanda, take all the cheeky Nandos before it's too late! (Also, a Qantas Airlines flight flew inside the hurricane today :O) (I'm that Dutch guy who was on the betting pools, by the way.) 5.10.94.220 00:18, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda is weakening again. She is now downgraded to a Cat. 3 hurricane with the intensity down to 120 mph/960 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:19, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

Up to 125/956, but should begin degrading for good from here on out. Ryan 1000 20:41, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

It never became a C5. :( Well, at least it still became a 145 mph C4, which is very impressive. Fernanda is forecast to enter the CPac on Thursday as a weakening TS. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 00:45, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Pressure down to 954 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:54, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Fernanda (2nd time)

Weakened to a Category 2 with the intensity down to 110 mph/967 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 04:28, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Now 105mph/972mb. Come ON, you need some more cheeky Nandos, girl! 5.10.94.220 22:57, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

This was at 100 mph when I checked NHC this morning, but it unexpectedly increased back to 105. Gradual weakening should occur with Fernanda as it moves towards the CPac. Luckily, Hawaii may be completely spared from impacts (unless you count higher surf as an impact).

UPDATE: 100 mph/976 mbar now. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 03:12, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Down to cat 1, 90 mph.990 mbars. Ryan 1000 10:12, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

The cold water sure is taking it's toll on Fernanda, but if it makes it to Hawaii, it will once again reach warm water. What I'm wondering is, if it makes it that far, is there a chance Fernanda could restrengthen? Leeboy100 ^Hello! 20:08, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii from the east, Darby of last year was actually the first to do so as a TS during July. While SST's are still warm southeast of Hawaii during July, the islands have strong wind shear that comes from the South Pacific that often tears up most hurricanes before they can reach the islands, plus the subtropical ridge north of the islands tends to keep hurricanes south of the islands, if not recurving north of them. It's just not likely to see a Hawaian landfall due to the small size of Hawaii and usually unfavorable conditions for easterly approaching hurricanes. Fernanda won't be any different. Ryan 1000 20:41, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (2nd time)

Weakened into a TS with the intensity at 70 mph/992 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:20, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda now on its way out. 65 mph/995 mbar. It's also about to enter the CPac later today. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 16:04, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda is quite a beautiful swirl of clouds. The NHC has reduced its intensity once more to 50 knots (60 mph)/998 mbar (hPa), and they noted that the storm could be even weaker. Even though SST's are actually predicted to increase as the trade winds move Fernanda further westwards, both persistent shear and dry air should prevent the system from reintensifying, with dissipation expected within the next 48 hours. Fernanda was such a strong and long-lived hurricane; as a matter of fact, it became a Category 4 further south than any other EPAC tropical cyclone except Olaf. I hope the EPAC can produce more of these later on in the season. Also, Fernanda is now entering RSMC Honolulu's area of responsibility (i.e. the CPAC), so the CPHC will issue all future advisories. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:10, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Kulap now looks more organized than Fernanda. It's still at 50 mph, though, but I think it will become a remnant low either late today or into tomorrow. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:51, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Fernanda has now entered the Central Pacific. It's at 50 mph/1000 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:19, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

For a while, it appeared that Fernanda was maintaining its convection, but increasing shear has further disorganized the system. Winds are now down to 40 knots (45 mph), with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa). While the CPHC forecasts Fernanda to continue moving generally westwards, they note that GFS is showing a stronger storm move more towards the NW. With SSTs of 25°C, very dry air, and shear of up to approximately 35 knots continuing to plague Fernanda, the CPHC expects degeneration into a remnant low within the next 24 to 36 hours. However, if the aforementioned conditions destroy this system's LLCC beforehand, I will not be surprised if that transition occurs sooner. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:17, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fernanda

Almost gone, with unfavorable conditions destroying it. This has been quite a long-lasting, and interesting hurricane! Bye Fernanda. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:42, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Now weakened into a depression, 35 mph/1006 mbar. Fernanda is meeting its demise as a long-lived hurricane. Hi!-70.190.5.175 04:44, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (technically 3rd time)

CPHC found 35-knot winds, so they reupgraded it. Quoting them: "This does not mean that the system has intensified since the previous advisory, but that the storm was slightly stronger than previously thought." ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:02, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, as the quote indicates, the CPHC should never have downgraded Fernanda to a tropical depression. They underestimated the storm's intensity, similar to what happened with Niala back in 2015. Nevertheless, Fernanda is highly sheared and will likely not last much longer. Winds are currently estimated to be 35 knots (40 mph), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). As the trade winds continue steering Fernanda westwards, shear of now up to approximately 40 knots and similarly unfavorable conditions will continue destroying the system. Within 48 hours, the CPHC predicts that Fernanda will have completely dissipated. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:44, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda

Now downgraded to a remnant low. Hi!-70.190.5.175 21:11, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Bye! Too bad you didn't make it to C5. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

07E.GREG

AOI: South of Mexico

As Fernanda begins to rapidly intensify, a new AOI has formed to the south of Mexico. As it moves WNWwards, it may have to contend with the cooler SST wake of Hurricane Eugene, although I am not sure if this will be a major impediment. Nevertheless, the chances of formation for the AOI are currently near 0% for the next 48 hours and 30% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 22:13, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

It's near 0/50 on the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:37, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Currently 10/50. This should be Greg, but conditions are only somewhat conducive (as mentioned in the TWO). I hope for another hurricane, if it can do it. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 22:54, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

It's now 30/50. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:16, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Now 40/60. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:10, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

If anything develops from this, it will most likely be a tropical depression due to the horrible conditions developing. Still at 40/60. TG 2017 22:40, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, Steve, you may be confusing this AOI with the one below that appears to be trapped in Fernanda's circulation. SSTs in the vicinity of this system still appear favorable despite Eugene's recent passage through there, and shear will decrease to under ten knots in the direction towards which this system is moving. This AOI probably still has an opportune window to become at least a tropical storm, if not a weak hurricane. Chances of formation have increased to 50% for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:30, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

97E.INVEST

Invested, still at 50/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:52, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

97E is slowly but surely coming together. However, this invest will be facing unfavorable conditions such as decreasing SSTs, as Jeff Masters writes in his blog. While 97E may not become as strong as the past three storms, its chances of formation have nevertheless increased to 60% for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 17:49, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Actually Andy, I wrote my previous post on the 14th soon before that other AOI even ever popped up on the TWO. And the one near Fernanda never reached 10/50. Anyway, conditions are not particularly conducive at all for 97E. I expect a TS or minimal hurricane at most, but even a hurricane could be really pushing it. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 18:26, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Increased to 70/80. It has a shot of becoming Greg. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

80/90 now. Here comes Greg. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:11, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E

Now a TD. Not expected to become much more than a weak TS (at least for now). ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 00:39, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Even though it's poorly organized, it could intensify into a TS in about 6 hours. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:41, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Greg

Now named. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:19, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Greg has weakened with the latest advisory. Down to 1007 mbar from 1006 mbar. Doubt that this storm will last much longer than Friday. TG 2017 15:01, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 50 mph/1003 mbar. This could become a minimal hurricane at the very most before it interacts with Eight-E. NHC forecasts a strong TS. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 03:03, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

NHC doesn't expect a hurricane from this as it's following in the outflow of Fernanda (and 8-E), which used up all the warm water here, but it could become a strong TS. Ryan 1000 10:12, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

It just weakened to 40 knots, but looks like it's reintensifying on satellite. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:36, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

On a side note, surprised no one mentioned this yet, but Greg was used twice this year, once here and another time in the Australian region back in April/May. That's the first time since 2010 where the same name was used more than once in the same year, but in different basins (in that year, Tomas was used in both the North Atlantic and South Pacific). Ryan 1000 21:51, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Weakened to 35 knots but the forecast track shows that it will become a hurricane. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:24, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Now 50 mph (45 knots)/1003 mbar and the forecast is still showing a hurricane. The shear that has been affecting the system earlier has diminished. Interaction with Eight-E is expected soon. And Ryan, I've never noticed that (probably because I rarely check the SHem) ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 16:07, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Greg has had quite a battle with its surroundings the past few days; it is only now overcoming its past. With warm SSTs and moist air both ahead of the storm as the NHC indicates, it is quite plausible that we will see the fourth hurricane of the year. However, it should also be noted that interaction with Tropical Depression Eight-E's remnants and proximity to approximately 40 knots of shear may halt Greg's intensification rate. Also, in three days, cooler ocean temperatures will cue in a weakening trend regardless. The NHC currently forecasts Greg to reach 70 knots (80 mph), but if these impediments fail to significantly affect the former, we may see an even more powerful hurricane in a couple days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:24, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(←)After stalling at 45 knots (50 mph)/1003 mbar (hPa) for the past day or so, Greg has finally intensified! Convection is consolidating, and because of the increased organization, the NHC has raised the storm's intensity to 50 knots (60 mph)/1001 mbar (hPa). As a trough and ridge continue to steer Greg westwards, the system will meet a somewhat favorable environment. However, the NHC warns that these factors are not as conductive to intensification as beforehand, including increasing shear and drying air. However, because Greg's core is becoming more pronounced, the storm may be better prepared to better tackle these impediments. The NHC has lowered their forecast peak to 65 knots (75 mph), but this could be generous if Greg fails to optimize its adjoining environment. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Unfortunately, Greg couldn't strengthen any further as the NHC forecasts it to be a remnant low later on. Hi!-70.190.5.175 04:37, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

It's down to 50 mph/1001 mbar and not forecast to be a hurricane any longer. Greg is really struggling under that shear monster. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:38, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Shear around Greg was much stronger than reported. Even though convection has returned, it is still facing heavy shear. As a nearby ridge steers the storm westward for the time being, this shear will finally abate, but dry air and cooler SSTs will prevail, compromising any major intensification. The NHC has lowered Greg's forecast peak once more to 50 knots (60 mph), but I will not be surprised if the system simply starts weakening from now onwards. Intensitywise, Greg remains at 45 knots (50 mph)/1001 mbar (hPa). Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:56, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Convection around Greg continues to return, although the storm's intensity remains the same as it was at the time of my last post. Although the shear seems to be abating (for now), Greg is entering an environment of dry air, which will likely prevent any significant reintensification. Moreover, SSTs will decrease and shear will increase again in a couple days; consequently, the NHC predicts the system's degeneration into a remnant low in approximately four to five days. Motionwise, both the nearby ridge and the trade winds will continue steering Greg generally westwards and potentially into the CPHC if the storm survives long enough. Nevertheless, for a system that was initially only expected to be a weak tropical storm, Greg has lasted for a rather long time. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 19:46, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Greg looked pretty good for a couple hours, but the new convection is quickly dissipating. Still, its intensity remains 45 knots for now. Looks like the loss of convection may be due to the effects of dry air. I had hopes that Greg would be able to at least make 60 mph again, but at this rate, not happening. All the models dissipate it within a few days. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:45, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

It's currently holding its intensity of 50 mph/1001 mbar for about 2 days. But it will weaken later on. It's forecasted to be a remnant low in about 2-3 days. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:46, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

It appears that hurricane strength will not occur with Greg, unless some miracle happens. Shear and dry air really limited its potential. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:17, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

08E.NONAME

AOI: Southwest of Mexico

A newly formed AOI is at 10/30. We may see Hilary by next week or so. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:16, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Now down to 10/20. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:26, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

I'm surprised that the NHC is even mentioning this system in their TWOs. This AOI is effectively tangled in Fernanda's circulation and may simply be absorbed into the hurricane's more dominant circulation. Even if that does not occur, the AOI's proximity to Fernanda will somehow handicap it, be it shear (notice the 25 knot value just to the north of the AOI) or cooler SSTs. In short, I am not expecting much from this AOI. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:22, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Up to 20/30. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

This AOI will soon be facing a lot of shear, despite now being located farther from Fernanda's circulation. I am still not expecting any major development from this system, unless it can persist through these unfavorable conditions. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 17:40, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

The AOI's chances of formation are now 30% for the next 48 hours and five days. There are still a couple of days left before the system reaches more unfavorable conditions. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 17:51, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

If it can persist, expect nothing more than a weak name-waster. I don't think this will even develop at all. Remember 94E? ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 18:30, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Increased to 50/50. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

98E.INVEST

Invested and up to 60/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:10, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

If it develops during the next day or two when conditions are still favorable enough, I hope it is just a weak TD at most. Because it would be an extreme name thief if it went beyond TD strength. This could also just pull off a 94E and not develop at all. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 00:37, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

70/70. Hope this forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:30, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

80/80. This is probably going to steal a name and become TS Hilary tonight. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:17, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E

Just formed and expected to become Hilary in the next advisory. It looks like it might not steal a name after all. TG 2017 15:04, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Who thinks that when this storm is called "Hillary", Don is active at the same time? Wish that can happen. 5.10.94.220 22:54, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Just like I said to Greg, even though it's a poorly organized TD, it's forecasted to be a TS later on. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:56, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Now no longer forecast to become a TS. :( Wind shear is really attacking this depression, and I hope the name Hilary is saved for the 0/50 system currently on the 5-day outlook. This depression, in the event it does somehow strengthen to a TS, would only be a major name stealer on the scale of Failicia or even worse (that is a nickname some of us like to use for Felicia of the 2015 Pacific hurricane season). The discussion and models predict a major Fujiwhara that could end up with either this or Greg as the dominant system (I personally think Greg will dominate). ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 03:09, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Hate to say it, but TD-8 may not become anything, unless Greg weakens, or this rapidly intensifies, which I don't think either will happen. It might become TS Hilary before it gets eaten by Greg. Also, you have to love the fact that Don and Hilary were almost active at the same time.... Leeboy100 ^Hello! 21:02, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

NHC says that TD 8 is expected to become a remnant low in a day or two. The AOI below could probably steal the name Hilary then. Kinda sad that we did not see Don and Hilary to exist at the same time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:24, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Yeah, this depression is on its last legs. Greg is about to eat this up by the weekend. The AOI below will probably not "steal" a name, as many models show a strong TS, and YE's post below says that it could even have a chance at being a formidable hurricane. Also sucks how Don and Hilary were not active at the same time. :( ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 16:11, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E

Died without becoming a TS. Ryan 1000 02:47, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Greg has absorbed the remnants of this depression. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 20:04, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

10E.IRWIN

AOI: Southeast of Mexico

Yet another one just formed, it's near 0% (48 hours) and 20% (5 days) as of for now. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

It's now at 0/30 on the 5-day TWO. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:11, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

This is most likely to be Hilary, unless 98E steals a name. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 00:41, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Up to 0/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:25, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Now to 0/50. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:53, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Due to 8-E's current real struggle with the Great Shear Monster, I expect Hilary to come from this instead. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 03:14, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

It's appeared on the 2-day TWO at 10/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:35, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Good chance it becomes a formidable hurricane. GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are all quite bullish. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 21:47, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Huge jump to 50/80. This may become Hilary. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:07, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

99E.INVEST

60/90. Hopefully we'll see Hilary here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:26, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 70/90. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:25, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

This is almost certainly going to be Hilary and I predict potentially another hurricane could come from this. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 16:13, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Invest 99E is in the midst of favorable SST and shear conditions and will most likely become a tropical cyclone. However, it should also be taken into consideration that this invest is rather close to Greg and is moving in the same general direction at approximately the same speed. There may be some sort of interaction between the two storms which could temporarily handicap 99E's development. On the flip side, I would like to see another powerful hurricane from this system. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:39, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Down to 70/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:28, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

70/80, interaction with Greg is going to cause 99E some problems from here on out. TG 2017 14:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC is now explicitly stating that Invest 99E will be facing more unfavorable conditions in a couple days in their TWO. Since approximately 30 knots of shear is very close to this system already, I am now only expecting a weak tropical storm at most if it still manages to develop. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:50, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

I think this won't even become a tropical storm at all. Perhaps this will become 10-E, but after reading NHC's forecast, I don't think this will become Irwin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:06, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

80/90, here comes 10-E. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:49, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

NHC is forecasting unfavorable conditions in the TWO, so this might only be a name-stealer. I hope it will only be a TD unless it can somehow strengthen past 50 mph. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:33, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

90/90. This is taking its time to form... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:28, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E

"I thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one." -Forecaster Avila

The above quote basically summarizes the absolute craziness that the entire northern Pacific has witnessed. Moreover, given how close this system was Greg, I am even more shocked that it managed to become tropical. Presently at 30 knots (35 mph)/1005 mbar (hPa) per the NHC, Tropical Depression Ten-E, sandwiched between two other systems, is not in the most opportune environment, as the NHC discussion notes. Nevertheless, the agency still predicts that this depression will attain winds of 60 knots (70 mph) due to decreasing shear ahead. Motionwise, the subtropical ridge is slated to drag Ten-E westwards, but the NHC discussion also mentions the probability of a binary interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 16:04, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, is the Pacific Ocean hot or what? Currently there are 8 storms (including this) that are currently active. 3 of them are TDs and 5 are TSs. Anyway, it's currently at 35 mph/1005 mbar and it's forecasted to be a TS in the next 6 hours. Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:10, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

If the graphics are correct, this is now forecast to become a TS first (before Nine-E). NHC says this system is not well organized though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:56, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Scratch what I said above. This will become Irwin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:13, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irwin

Confirmed by NHC, looks like we won't be having a switcheroo in names and storm number this time around. Forecast currently makes it a weak hurricane following Greg. Ryan 1000 09:50, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

There is some moderate shear in the vicinity of Irwin, but that is forecast to relax over the next day or so. Intensitywise, Irwin has winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa), and with additional favorable conditions such as SSTS of 27-28°C, per the latest NHC forecast discussion, and moist air, this storm should definitely at least intensify a little more over the next few days. Also, because of the possibility of some sort of interaction between Hilary and Irwin, the NHC has shifted the latter's forecast path to the south to account for this. Hopefully, we will see two additional hurricanes in the EPAC over the next several days! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 20:01, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Irwin is stronger with the new advisory, 45mph/1003mb. A nice convective burst covered the center over the last few hours. The new advisory now brings Irwin to hurricane strength, but only briefly before Hilary interferes with its development. Seems that the shear is decreasing. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:21, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 50 mph/1001 mbar. Forecasted to be a hurricane in a couple of days. Hi!-70.190.5.175 04:02, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

This should become a hurricane once "The 2016 Loser Candidate" strengthens to a major. Irwin isn't going to be a major himself unless a strange miracle happens, and Hilary (~~Clinton~~) will affect Irwin, preventing major status from happening. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:22, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

09E.HILARY

AOI: Southeast of Mexico II

Yes, another one now at 0/20 on the 5-day TWO. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:35, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Oops, it's now 0/50. This has a big chance to become Irwin next week (or even in the coming days). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:34, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 10/60. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:27, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

This is somewhat more east than where I normally see EPac AOIs (as this is near Costa Rica). It could be powerful due to all the water in its path. Here comes Irwin, assuming the above invest will be Hilary (Clinton :P). ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 16:15, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

90E.INVEST

According to NRL, this AOI has been invested. It is continuing to organize, and with both very favorable SSTs and low shear ahead of Invest 90E, I can see another tropical storm, if not hurricane, coming from this system. Chances of formation are now 40% for the next 48 hours and 90% for the next five days. Also, Steve, regarding your comment, 90E is currently far east enough that it actually appears on the lower left corner of the Atlantic shear map! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:50, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

I think this will be Hilary if it keeps developing this quickly. 70/90, it is a race for Hilary and the loser will get Irwin. TG 2017 11:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

GFS makes this a major hurricane 204 hours out. I'm not sure this will happen.

Link to this interesting forecast model run.

Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:14, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

The GFS has been really accurate with the EPac recently, so I would say it is probably likely to happen. TG 2017 13:22, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine-E

It's now a tropical depression. The NHC forecasts this to become a 105 mph category 2 within five days. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 15:37, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(edit conflict) The (northern) Pacific Ocean is throwing a party right now! Seven different tropical cyclones (Fernanda, Greg, Noru, Kulap, TD 08W, JMA TD/Invest 98W, and now Nine-E) are currently active across this ocean! As for this depression, it has organized itself extremely quickly; this was at a near 0% chance of formation only two days ago! The NHC is currently estimating winds of 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1008 mbar for an intensity, but this looks like a tropical storm to me. As the subtropical ridge keeps Tropical Depression Nine-E moving westwards for the next several days, the system will be entering very favorable conditions, including more than favorable SSTs and shear values of approximately five to fifteen knots. The NHC presently predicts that this depression will peak with 90 knot winds, but I will not be surprised if Nine-E becomes the second major hurricane of the season. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:45, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Guess this will become Hilary first. Anyway, the Pacific (north Pacific, of course) is on a roll. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:03, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

It's forecasted to be Hilary in less than 6 hours. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:46, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

I expected this would be Irwin. I guess it will be Hilary instead... this will become our next major IMO. Anyway, the whole Pacific is throwing a huge TC party like Andy said. I can't believe there are all these TCs in the WPac that formed during the past day or two. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:31, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

This will become Hilary later today, per NHC's latest update. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:32, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

It's still having trouble developing convection near its center. If it does so, however, we may see the onset of a rapid intensification trend. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:04, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Well, I was already expecting Nine-E to be a tropical storm right now! As a matter of fact, the NHC notes that this depression may be less organized than what it was during its cyclogenesis! Fortunately, there will be plenty of warm waters and low shear for Nine-E to take advantage of over the next several days. The NHC has raised their forecast peak for the system up slightly to 95 knots (110 mph), but I still believe we could witness our third major hurricane by the end of next week, especially if the depression's core organizes itself quickly. Intensitywise, Tropical Depression Nine-E still has winds of 30 knots (35 mph), but a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 16:15, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

"Poorly organized but poised to strengthen..." as said by NHC. As of the latest graphic forecast, this will only become a TS by 1 pm on Sunday... could this be Irwin instead of Hilary? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:00, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

That could happen Anonymous, in fact when this list was last used in 2011, Irwin came after Jova due to the latter forming as a depression first, now we could see Irwin before Hillary in storm order, if 10E becomes Irwin before 9E becomes Hilary. Ryan 1000 00:05, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilary

(Please feel free to change the above header back into a more normal format at any given time). After stalling for nearly a couple of days, convection has blossomed enough to prompt Tropical Depression Nine-E to a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). (Pardon the humor ahead, I just thought it would be fitting.) It now appears that Secretary Clinton will be leaving the woods of Chappaqua and pursuing a new title - strongest storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. A ridge will steer her westwards into an area of low shear and warm SSTs, which will give Hilary the opportunity to recuperate some lost energy. But be warned! She may explode like a kettle pot if she gets too excited! Even though the NHC only forecasts her to spin around at a maximum speed of 95 knots (110 mph), she may blow faster and become a major hurricane. Who knows? Maybe Hilary will snatch her desired crown from Fernanda if she gets excited enough! However, she will have to face a challenge. Secretary Clinton may need to share the ocean with a buddy, Ten-E. The NHC is confident that Hilary will not engage in any dancing or other roughhousing with this buddy, but time will tell if something does occur. Stay tuned as she gears up for another quest (and causes social media to go crazy with jokes). Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 03:07, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Yay, Hillary ~~Clinton~~ is here! :D The system is forecasted to be a hurricane later on by Monday. It may further intensify and become a major hurricane just like Andrew had said. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:01, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

And finally it managed to become a TS. Forecasts say this will be a hurricane later on, and I hope it does unlike its Atlantic counterpart (aka Don). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:16, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

8 months ago, Don beat Hilary in the presidential election, now it looks like the opposite will happen in terms of cyclonic strength. Given how many people the usage of the name Don pissed off, I can only imagine how many will be pissed off by the usage of both Don AND Hilary, only a few days apart. Leeboy100 ^Hello! 05:55, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, Leeboy, Hilary is already stronger than Don; the former's current 1003 mbar (hPa) trumps (no pun intended) the latter's minimum 1007 mbar (hPa) reading. Additionally, Hilary now has winds of 40 knots (45 mph), and may have briefly developed an eye feature earlier today. The latest NHC forecast discussion indicates that this system could begin a major intensification period shortly. In addition to the aforementioned increased organization, SHIPS is giving a 50% chance that Hilary will undergo rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. Consequently, the NHC now explicitly forecasts this storm to reach 100 knots (115 mph) in a few days, but if Hilary intensifies quickly enough, it may become even stronger. Motionwise, a ridge over Mexico should keep Hilary moving towards the WNW per the latest forecast discussion, where it may still encounter Irwin. Additionally, increased shear and cooler SSTs will likely cap any additional intensification in several days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 20:20, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Hilary now beats Don in both winds and pressure with a jump in windspeed to 60mph in the latest advisory. The NHC also noticed the eye feature in the most recent discussion on Hilary:

"Hilary continues to become better organized on the latest satellite images, with a small central core and a hint of an eye dimple trying to form in the visible channel".

Seems to me that Hilary is starting a round of RI. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:26, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

70 miles per hour now, with a 997 millibar pressure. It looks like I'm gonna wake up to a hurricane with winds 80 miles per hour or greater. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 03:01, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC now forecasts it to be a major hurricane and I want it to attain at least a Cat. 3. It could be a Cat. 4 or even a Cat. 5. I think this will be like Hilary in 2011. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:55, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

Yeah, the previous incarnation of "Hilary" could be a good comparison to this one, as both are expected to become majors. However, this year's Hilary might take a track that's a little more south. Anyway, the reverse of the 2016 election is happening in this year's season. Don(ald Trump) just epically failed due to shear in the eastern Caribbean, while this one (Clinton) will almost certainly be our next major. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:27, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilary

Yep. Upgraded to a hurricane. Expected to become a major later today or tomorrow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:15, July 24, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:

Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
Greg - TBA - Still Active
Hilary - TBA - Still Active
Irwin - TBA - Still Active

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 19:53, July 23, 2017 (UTC))

Steve's Retirements

Alrighty. I will do mine

(Retirement colors: -∞%, 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)
(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)
(Grade colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, F-, Z--(x∞))
(Notes: A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely, used for either the best possible win storms or the worst possible failures. Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)). The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower.)

Adrian: 0%, D- - A weak failure and a fishspinner, but saved from getting an "F" or lower by the fact that it was the earliest named storm ever in the EPac zone.
Beatriz: 10%, F - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
Calvin: 2.5%, F- - Even weaker than the above two storms (this was 40 mph vs. 45 for the others). Retirement is about out of the question, as this was less destructive than Beatriz and caused no deaths. This would be Z--(x∞) had it not done something.
Dora: 0.01%, C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
Eugene: 0%, A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
Fernanda: 0%, A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements

I'll do mine right now.

50% or more: Italics

Ok, here we go:

Adrian: 0%- A weak off-season storm that is a fishspinner. It holds the record for the earliest storm in the Epac. It didn't impact any land so this one's going to 2023.
Beatriz: 7.5%- Impacted Mexico and caused 7 deaths and also $3.9 million dollars. But it's most likely going to not be retired.
Calvin: 1%- Weaker than the last two storms, Calvin almost hit the same area as Beatriz. Damages unknown but it caused no deaths.
Dora: 0.01%- It exceeded the expectations of intensity. Damages are minimal but again, it caused no deaths.
Eugene: 0%- Yet again like Dora, it exceeded the expectations. Bought waves to Baja California and SoCal but nothing else than just being a fishspinner.
Fernanda: 0%- A powerful and long-lasting hurricane that is so far the most intense hurricane of this season and spends about 11 days in the open waters. It somewhat entered the CPAC. Bought waves to Hawaii, that's it. It's some sort of a fishspinner just like Eugene.
Greg: TBA- Currently active.
Hillary ~~Clinton~~: TBA- Currently active.
Irwin: TBA- Currently active.

That's all for now folks. Ciao mates! Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:26, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

@@ Line 394: / Line 394: @@
 :::::The NHC now forecasts it to be a major hurricane and I want it to attain at least a Cat. 3. It could be a Cat. 4 or even a Cat. 5. I think this will be like Hilary in 2011. Hi!-[[Special:Contributions/70.190.5.175|70.190.5.175]] 03:55, July 24, 2017 (UTC)
 ::::::Yeah, the previous incarnation of "Hilary" could be a good comparison to this one, as both are expected to become majors. However, this year's Hilary might take a track that's a little more south. Anyway, the reverse of the 2016 election is happening in this year's season. Don(ald Trump) just epically failed due to shear in the eastern Caribbean, while this one (Clinton) will almost certainly be our next major. ~ <big><font face="Impact">[[User:SteazySteve |<span style="color:#0BF;">Steve</span>]]</font></big> [[Message Wall:SteazySteve #top|<span class="button">Talk Page</span>]][[Special:Contributions/SteazySteve|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/SteazySteve|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 04:27, July 24, 2017 (UTC)
+====Hurricane Hilary====
+Yep. Upgraded to a hurricane. Expected to become a major later today or tomorrow. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Anonymous 2.0]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 09:15, July 24, 2017 (UTC)
 ==Retirements at a glance==