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This is the forum page for the 2017 Pacific hurricane season.

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Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives: Pre-Season-June, July
Storm Event Archives:

Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


Future StartEdit

I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

AugustEdit

It's already August according to UTC so, why not start it? I'm expecting more activity during this month. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:13, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

11E.NONAMEEdit

AOI: South of Mexico (again)Edit

Yellow crayon is scribbled south of Mexico again. 5 day outlook is 0/30 and this seems much more likely to eventually be Jova than the above AOI. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:28, July 30, 2017 (UTC)

I may have confused the above dead AOI with this one. Hopefully this can become our next major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:43, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
Now up to 0/40, is this Jova? 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 17:31, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
Still 0/40, but models have recently trended much weaker. Hopefully they are wrong. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:10, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
Now to 10/40. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 03:31, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVESTEdit

Invest'd and 20/40. The TWO is now mentioning that upper-level winds might become unfavorable by Friday. Hopefully this won't steal the name "Jova"... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:32, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 20/50. Conditions still look conducive enough for Jova to develop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:06, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
The 2-day chance was raised to 30%, while the 5-day chance is still 50%. We could get Jova from this, but it's not a certainty. It all depends on if this invest feels like developing or not. :P ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:26, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
Now at 30/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
Now down to 20/30. I doubt that this one will form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
Meh, there is still a chance that this could rapidly develop last-minute and be a brief TD or even a name-stealing spin-up, but that's not very likely. This has very limited time to get itself together before Friday. It seems to me that the EPac is taking a break. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:57, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
Guess this won't be a TD after all. Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:17, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
It is up to 40/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:22, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
And suddenly it went up. I hope this will form, anyway. May this become a TD though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:19, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
It's now 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:47, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
I expect a TD and nothing more. Heck, this might even bust completely. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:57, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
60/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:38, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
80/80. Can be a TD in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:10, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-EEdit

Recently numbered, TD 11-E is not expected to be a TS due to cooler waters. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:06, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

It actually strengthened a bit to 30 knots (35 mph) but I still doubt it will be a TS. If it does, it would be a pathetic name-stealer that is worse than Failicia 2015. Models thankfully don't strengthen it to a TS according to the NHC discussion. I am glad to see it become a TD though. :) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:25, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
I hope this steals the name Jova and is only a TS for six hours. >:) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
I would be pissed if this steals the name Jova. I have been waiting  for this name since 2011 when it was a major and it has always been used for hurricanes. 181.210.62.178 23:58, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
Don't worry, this won't be Jova. NHC expects this to become a remnant low later. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:58, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
This is quickly dying off. The storm that could be Jova, however, make it a very strong storm, but it's 11+ days out. Usually, those are not accurate past 10 days. TG 2017 12:03, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
TD 11-E is forecasted to be a remnant low shortly after. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:07, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-EEdit

Downgraded into a remnant low. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:12, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of MexicoEdit

AOI: Southwest of MexicoEdit

A new AOI popped up in EPac. Currently 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:32, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

This could be Jova in the very long run, although the environment might not be particularly supportive. The NHC mentions that any development should be slow to occur. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:58, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
This will probably be Jova, only a very weak one at that. TG 2017 20:47, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:37, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
Conditions won't favor any development here, and Jova will have to wait. The EPac is sleeping for now but it should wake up again by mid-month. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:02, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
Off the 2-day TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:16, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
It's still on the 5-day TWO. Doubt this will form though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
Per Steve's update: this AOI is gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:04, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

12E.JOVAEdit

AOI: Remnants of FranklinEdit

It is on 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Still 0/30. Franklin's [future] remnants are expected to help this AOI organize (if it really does) this weekend. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
I noticed these are completely different systems (compare: 1 and 2, which is just one outlook apart). Can a disturbance really move northward that quickly? Anyway, this seems to have a pretty decent chance of (re)development in the long run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:01, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
And it's now 10/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:18, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
Increased to 20/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:30, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
50/50. I not sure if it is Jova (likely going to form). Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:50, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
Now increased to 70/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:21, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
90/90. This has a high chance to become Jova. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:08, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
Hello, or should I say, "Hei" in my native tongue. I'm a girl from Lillestrøm, Norway that has just come to make a point about this new storm. To be honest, I wanted to see a Hurricane Jova as it is a gender-neutral name (as that Dutch boy pointed out a couple of weeks ago) and it would be nice that a storm name without an assumed/obvious gender would have a strong hurricane status. People would have come on Twitter and pointed it out. But it won't happen as he/she won't be anything stronger than a weak tropical storm, based on models. Models are instead hinting at a strong Kenneth. I mean, KENNETH? Nobody would be interested in a storm named KENNETH as it is a basic and boring name! I am disgusted by this. Here is what I found on the interwebz regarding the low:

"Since Franklin did not survive the crossing of Mexico as an identifiable tropical cyclone, the new storm would get a new Eastern Pacific name. The next named storm in the list is Jova. By early next week, any potential Tropical Storm Jova will encounter a less conducive atmosphere for development, and it is unlikely that we will see a Hurricane Jova." Seriously? I am really annoyed that we have a name-stealer. Franklin, WE DON'T NEED YOU TO HAVE A NEW IDENTITY. YOU SHOULD HAVE KEPT YOUR NAME RATHER THAN CHANGING IT. ALSO I BLAME THE DRY AIR AND STRONG UPPER WINDS. I DON'T WANT A WEAK JOVA. Super pissed off. Who is with me? 169.51.72.247 00:18, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVESTEdit

Kind of agree with you 169.51. Remember Earl and Javier from last year? Earl's remnants formed into Javier in the East Pacific. Javier (65 mph/997 mbar) is weaker than Earl (85 mph/979 mbar). I want Javier much stronger like it was in 2004. But instead, it was kinda weak. I don't want this to happen again. I would suggest it would be a TD only. Or else, this would be a very bad name-stealer and even much worse than Failicia. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:01, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm JovaEdit

GREAT. JOVA HAS FORMED. Expected to be very short lived and peak as a minimal tropical storm. FRANKLIN, WHAT THE HELL HAVE YOU DONE? WE DON'T NEED YOU HERE ANYMORE! NO USE USING A NEW IDENTITY TO EXPLORE THE PACIFIC! JEEZ NOW WE HAVE A NAME-STEALER. I WANTED TO SEE A GENDERFLUID HURRICANE!!!!! >:(!!!

THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND TONIGHT...

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER FAIL SYSTEM!! ESPECIALLY WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE WITH AN AWESOME NON-BINARY NAME THAT PEOPLE WOULD HAVE GONE HEAD OVER HEELS FOR ON TUMBLR AND TWITTER! WTF!! (Girl from Norway who posted that angry note above) 169.51.72.247 03:21, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Jova is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and is
forecast to turn toward the west by late Saturday and enter forbidden territory.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Jova would probably never intensify, to be honest. Jova will start to weaken within 2 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS
----------------------
Sobbing SJWs on Tumblr that the non-binary storm would never be a hurricane. 
Expect to see severe flooding of up to 298000 feet. 
169.51.72.247 03:25, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Didn't expect this to instantly become Jova and skip the TD phase. Anyway, Jova is expected to last until Monday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:58, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Oh great. Just great. Jova is already a failure already. I mean, it'll be a weak fishspinner that is Failicia. What have you done Franklin? Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:02, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
I expected a TD, not Jova for the first advisory. Anyways, conditions might be favorable enough for strengthening before Sunday. If it doesn't strengthen significantly I might have to write this off as a pathetic name-waste. At least we finally got a new named storm after 3 weeks without anything forming (except for the short-lived TD early this month). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:54, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
YES!!! I was hoping that the name Jova would be stolen. >:D (Jova is my least favorite name on the lists. Jova is still at 40 mph, and it could just peak there. TG 2017 11:33, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
I'll be honest, I agree with you TG. Aside from Greg, Jova is one of the names which I am not a fan [of]. (My favorites in this list are Irwin, Lidia & Max; in the other lists, my favorites are Boris, Priscilla, Lane, Wallis, Vance and Guillermo.) Jova is now approaching Socorro Island as NHC expects it to peak at 40 kts (45 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:44, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
I actually kinda like the name Jova simply because of the fact that it is a genderfluid name (although the NHC identifies it as female).  However, it's totally not my favorite name. Looks like we have a pathetic fail here. :/ Kenneth should be a better storm. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:08, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Jova looks like she's becoming post-tropical. Jova could dissipate tonight if this continues. TG 2017 19:03, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression JovaEdit

You gotta be kidding me. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:53, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

This is the first EPac storm that bore the name Jova to not become a hurricane. My favorite names from the EPac are Guillermo, Blas, Kenneth, Emilia, Tico, and Winnie. While my least favorite names are Jova, Douglas, Gil, John, Javier, and Terry. TG 2017 22:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
I was just going to point that out too! My favourites have got to be Fernanda (so glad that was a C4 storm), Lidia, Aletta (great to hear a Dutch name this time instead of Spanish and English names all the time), Emilia, Carlotta (I love Italian names), Illeana, Kristy (sounds cute), Tara (reminds me of a K-pop band), Xavier, Zelda, Cosme, Dalila, Flossie, Juliette, Priscilla, Lorena, Amanda, Elida, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Karina, Odalys, Enrique, Felicia, Ignacio, Jimena, Rick (I will make a petition for a hurricane to be called "Roll"), Estelle, Celia and Seymour. Wish I can have a hurricane named after me, though.
My least favourites? Well, the names that are fit for old ladies and gentlemen. Winifred? Velma? Wallis? Yuck. John sounds boring, and I don't like Javier for some reason. Xavier is better.  
Based on my tastes, what do you think I seem to like? (TG, I think you are one for edgy but oldish sounding names. You seem not to like plain names, or names that are just downright weird.)
ANYWAY LOL, this storm was a failure. NICE TRY FRANKLIN, you went undercover as an EPAC storm. NOW GET OUT! WE ARE NOT FOOLED! 
(Yes, I was that Norwegian girl who posted yesterday. You can refer to me as Henriette, my real name.) 169.51.72.247 00:28, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Jeez. I bet this storm will dissipate in a few hours. I'd rather listen to a terrible, out of tune Nicki Minaj song on loop for 10 days rather than sit through tracking this storm. 169.51.72.247 00:42, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
The intensity is 35 mph/1005 mbar. Also, it is a failure. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:02, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, what a miserable failure this is. Jova is like, as pathetic as Failicia. It should dissipate tomorrow due to increasingly hostile environmental conditions. Bye, disgrace to TCs! It's hilarious how Jova epically failed in front of the Wiki audience. 🤣 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:38, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Jova is dead. Look at this: Jova doesn't even look tropical anymore. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:22, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Failicia 2.0 (Jova) is going to be a remnant low later today. This storm is pathetic. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:39, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Current advisory keeps it tropical, at 30 mph/1006 mbars. It should be a remnant low by the 8 PM PDT advisory. What a terrible fail this was. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:59, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone JovaEdit

Now downgraded into a remnant low. Bye, bye failure! Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:43, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of MexicoEdit

AOI: South of MexicoEdit

Here we go again. Another one just appeared only on the 5 day TWO with a 0/20 chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Now up to 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
0/40. The (slow?) race for Jova is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:29, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
This could be Jova or Kenneth in the long run, depending on whether the remnants of Franklin develops first. Or that other AOI might be like Otto from last year and keep its name, depending on what the NHC thinks of it (I don't know if the "low pressure" that could develop within the remnants of Franklin is separate or is going to be a real part of the remnants). The EPac seems to be heating up again! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:07, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
Still 0/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:31, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
And it's still 0/40. It's taking its time to intensify I think. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:56, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
Looks like it will be goddamn KENNETH now. -yawn- (Girl from Norway that posted earlier) 169.51.72.247 00:19, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
30/70 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:43, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
And Kenneth is most likely coming from this early next week. The EPac is heating up again after little activity from late July through the early part of this month. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:56, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 20/70, although conditions remain favorable for the development of Kenneth by the middle of next week. I hope it is an epic major! :) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:09, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
Down again to 10/60. It's taking its time to develop... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:18, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Come on Ken! Let's see you soon!! :D And please be a major! (I am Henriette who posted earlier) 169.51.72.247 00:29, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
I lost track of this. I am now confused. I don't know if this is the one downgraded to 10/40 or the other AOI near it. Oh well, the second AOI became 0/30, which means that this is going to be a longer waiting game than what we thought. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:42, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
Off the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:52, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of JovaEdit

AOI: Southwest of JovaEdit

0/20. The EPac is becoming active again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:11, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

0/30. Proximity to a disturbance to the east (I think the 10/60 system?) could limit development until this moves westward away from it. We could be up to Lidia by the end of next week, if not sooner. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:20, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Now up to 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:01, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
Long gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
Wait.. I think it's it's not. It is at 20/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:00, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of MexicoEdit

This one's at a 0/10 chance. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Already off the TWO and the other AOIs are also at 0/10 chance. This basin is sleeping again. A bit odd that the overall environment does not seem particularly supportive in August in the EPac. At this rate (unless we are lucky), Kenneth might not even come at all until at least the end of the month. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:00, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
Gone from the TWO. Inactive month, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

90C.INVESTEdit

A new 30/50 system is just west of 140W, and has already been invested along with the below system. I think there is a pretty decent chance of Walaka coming from this. Last name before the lists reset! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:41, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Now 40/60. I won't be surprised if this is Walaka. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:14, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
60/80. This is almost certain to become a TD. Hopefully it will be Walaka soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
Scratxh what I said above. This is down to 50/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
It still has a chance though. If it quickly develops during the next couple days, Walaka is possible (although it won't be more than a TS). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:09, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

91C.INVESTEdit

Development appears less likely than the above due to proximity, but it is 20/20 on the CPac TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:41, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Off the CPAC TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:51, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:

  1. Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
  2. Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
  3. Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
  4. Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
  5. Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
  6. Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
  7. Greg - 0% - Greg, despite not becoming hurricane, lasted much longer than I expected and even managed to survive into the CPAC. However, with no land effects, it will most likely be staying (unless some Diary of a Wimpy Kid fanatic requests that the WMO remove this name).
  8. Hilary - 1% - Impactwise, it does not appear that Hilary was significant for Mexico or anywhere else, albeit moving parallel to the former's coastline. Although I have added a grace percentage to account for the (unlikely) possibility that this name will be retired due to the connotation with Secretary Clinton, I would like to note that the names of other prominent politicians of the countries surrounding the EPAC (e.g. Enrique) have been on these naming lists since their inception back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and were not removed because they took power.
  9. Irwin - 0% - Irwin became decently strong in spite of its proximity to Hilary and lasted for a while as well. However, it will go down in history as just another harmless hurricane in the EPAC.

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 16:35, August 10, 2017 (UTC))

Steve's RetirementsEdit

Alrighty. I will do mine

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)
(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)
(Grade colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, F-, Z--(x∞))

Notes:

  • A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
  • Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
  • Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:

  • Adrian: 0%, D- - A weak failure and a fishspinner, but saved from getting an "F" or lower by the fact that it was the earliest named storm ever in the EPac zone.
  • Beatriz: 10%, F - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
  • Calvin: 2.5%, F- - Even weaker than the above two storms (this was 40 mph vs. 45 for the others). Retirement is about out of the question, as this was less destructive than Beatriz and caused no deaths. This would be Z--(x∞) had it not done something.
  • Dora: 0.01%, C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
  • Eugene: 0%, A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
  • Fernanda: 0%, A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.
  • Greg: 0%, F - Despite continued forecasts for hurricane intensity, it failed to become one throughout its over a week of existing.
  • Hilary: 15%, B - Didn't become a major despite predictions to do so, although it was quite resilient in the end, thus improving the grade from what it otherwise would have been. Slight but very small retirement chance due in part to the name's relationship to 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. However, she is much less notable than Donald Trump (Don in the Atlantic has a higher retirement chance as a result) due to Hillary not being the current U.S. president.
  • Irwin: 0%, B - A weak fishspinning hurricane that was quite resilient.
  • Jova0%Z--(x∞) - A weak, pathetic failed storm!

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of RetirementsEdit

I'll do mine right now.

50% or more: Italics

Ok, here we go:

Storm Name Chance of Retirement Comments
Adrian 0% A weak off-season storm that is a fishspinner. It holds the record for the earliest storm in the Epac. It didn't impact any land so this one's going to 2023.
Beatriz 2.5% Impacted Mexico and caused 7 deaths and also $3.9 million dollars. But it's most likely going to not be retired.
Calvin 1% A complete failure that is weaker than the last two storms, Calvin almost hit the same area as Beatriz. Damages unknown but it caused no deaths.
Dora 0.01% It exceeded the expectations of intensity but it never reached C2. Damages are minimal but again, it caused no deaths.
Eugene 0% Yet again like Dora, it exceeded the expectations. It barely reached major hurricane status. Bought waves to Baja California and SoCal but nothing else than just being a fishspinner.
Fernanda 0% A powerful and long-lasting hurricane that is so far the most intense hurricane of this season and spends about 11 days in the open waters. It somewhat entered the CPAC. The remnants of Fernanda impacted Hawaii.
Greg 0% A kind of strong TS that stayed out to sea. That fishspinner barely made it into CPAC before dissipating. It really failed to be a Category 1.

Hilary

20% A fishspinner that stayed well away from Mexico. I was disappointed that it didn't reach major hurricane status but at least it was a C2 and it was stronger than Don. And same thing as Don, it may get the Adolph, Isis, Israel retirement due to Hillary Clinton.

Irwin

0% Some kind of a fishspinner that is mostly resilient but nothing else.
Jova Fail% Failicia 2.0.

That's all for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

TG's RetirementsEdit

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

  • Adrian: 0% - Does get credit for being the earliest EPac storm on record. Multiple forecasts predicted Adrian to become a hurricane, and it didn't even become a 50 mph tropical storm.
  • Beatriz: 1% - When it comes to retirement, Beatriz doesn't even come close to the snubs. I wouldn't even give this more than a 1% chance of retirement.
  • Calvin: 0.01% - Calvin almost fizzled out before landfall, but there was minimal damage. This will be coming back in 2023.
  • Dora: 0.01% - Dora caused some minor damage. Dora didn't impress me, but that's just my opinion.
  • Eugene: 0% - Eugene defied forecasts, and became a major hurricane...barely. I feel like Eugene could've done better. Eugene stayed out in the open waters, so he will be back in 2023.
  • Fernanda: 0.01% - The remnants of Fernanda struck Hawaii, and that doesn't count as much.
  • Greg: 0% - Failicia 2.0.
  • Hilary: 50% - Hilary was forecast to become a major multiple times, and it never did. However, with political issues, Hilary could be retired this coming spring. It is more likely to happen to Hilary because the EPac is the only one who gives the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment. I think that this and Don could be retired.
  • Irwin: 0% - Out in the ocean. I doubt this will go.

Raindrop's RetirementsEdit

Adrian: 0%, grade D - Extra credit for becoming the earliest tropical storm in the EPAC proper, minus three letter grades for being dissipated when it was forecast to be a 100 mph storm. Seriously, what was that?

Beatriz: 0.03%, grade F - A weak TS that made landfall in Mexico. It will be back in 2023 since Mexico has never retired a storm that has done such little damage. It doesn't get a Z as it still formed relatively early and caused impacts.

Calvin: Whatever the chance of winning the lottery is%, grade F- - It formed. It hit land. It died. It did not do much. It failed. It does not get a Z as it caused impacts.

Dora: 0%, grade C+ - Just an average hurricane that formed, strengthened, peaked, weakened, and died. It did look pretty good at peak intensity. It gets a slightly better grade than an average "C" grade because it was the first hurricane of the season. It caused no impacts of significance.

Eugene: 0%, grade A- - A fishspinner that did make major status, barely. Therefore it gets an A, barely. Besides the fact that it strengthened more than expected, Eugene followed a rather straightforward path from formation to dissipation, which does not help its grade. No impacts = no retirement.

Fernanda: 0%, grade A+ - Fernanda was an amazing and beautiful storm that did not hit land. Its sudden RI to category 4 status was quite cool, and although it did not reach category 5 status, it gets an A plus due to its rather long lifespan and slight resilience when it was weakening.

Greg: 0%, grade D+ - Greg ended up underperforming forecasts in the end, but did have some interesting aspects to its life. (Most notably when it went from looking like it was going to strengthen to having an exposed center :P) Greg did briefly hit 60 mph before that, and that along with its long life give it an ok grade.

Hilary: 10%, grade B - Hilary fell short of expectations, just like in the election, by not becoming a major when it was forecasted to for a long time. It still became a decent hurricane, and its brief restrengthening when it was over cold waters brings up its grade quite a bit. It gets a significant but small shot at retirement due to the name's relation to the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Irwin: 0%, grade A- - Irwin was originally slow to strengthen, getting named while still having an exposed center. During its pretty long life, Irwin would always find a way to do just a little more than forecasts predicted, by strengthening to 90 mph and then near the end of its life refusing to die. The only time Irwin was not resilient was during its sudden rapid weakening from 90 to 50 mph in under 24 hours. The fact that Irwin was resilient in the end makes up for that. I give Irwin an A- as it was a lot of fun to track and looked quite pretty at times.

Jova: 0%, grade Z- - An epic fail, didn't even stay at TS strength for 1 day. The only reason it doesn't get the lowest grade is because it was never supposed to be strong in the first place.

Retirement Predictions: A2.0Edit

  • Adrian - 0.05% - that .05% is for Adrian being the earliest forming storm in the Eastern Pacific proper (excl. Central Pacific)
  • Beatriz - 4% - minimal impact, though there were a number of fatalities.
  • Calvin & Dora - 0% - see you both in 2023.
  • Eugene - 1.5% - for being the first major of the season. Will be back in 2023.
  • Fernanda - 2.5% - for being the first Category 4 hurricane of the season; also expected to be back in 2023.
  • Greg & Irwin - 2% - although weaker than Eugene and Fernanda, they were fun to track because of their relatively long lives. Both will be back in 2023 though.
  • Hilary - 3% - If we will only consider its actual impact(s), Hilary will be back in 2023. However, I am not sure if that will happen, given the political situation right now. While it may not get retired, but this may be removed (due to the name being very similary to Hillary Clinton, with the exception of its spelling of course). May become Adolph/Israel/Isis 4.0 (along with Don in the Atlantic).

More to follow.

Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictionsEdit

Time to toss in my two cents:

  • Adrian - 0% - A rare pre-season storm, in fact the earliest ever in the East Pacific proper (up to 140W), but it didn't affect land, so, see ya in 2024.
  • Beatriz - 3% - Gets credit for its minor effects in Mexico, like in 2011, but it won't be retired.
  • Calvin - 1% - A little less severe than Beatriz.
  • Dora - 1% - It didn't make landfall, but its outer rainbands caused some damage to Mexico.
  • Eugene - 0% - It did cause some swells in southern California that prompted water rescues, but no one was killed and there was no damage, so Mr. Krabs will be back again in 2024.
  • Fernanda - 0% - A powerful and long-lived major hurricane, the second-southernmost on record in the EPac after Olaf in 2015, but she caused no impacts on land, so she'll be back again in 2024.
  • Greg - 0% - Lasted a while, but never became a hurricane, so meh.
  • Hilary - 0% - A failed intensity forecast, just like a failed presidential campaign last year. I personally doubt Hilary (and Don) will be removed from the naming lists just because they so happened to be the names of the two main U.S. presidential candidates in the 2016 election; if Hilary and/or Don are removed for that reason, I won't count them as retirements (due to impact) as neither storm was notable in that regard.
  • Irwin - 0% - Another fishie, but at least it became a hurricane.

Ryan1000 22:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

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