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Current Systems: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E


This is the forum page for the 2017 Pacific hurricane season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


Future StartEdit

I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

Pre-SeasonEdit

January AOI: ULL that becomes... uh Adrian?Edit

GFS has the wicked idea of developing a TC from a ULL just a week from now.


http://prntscr.com/dyan1a - peak

http://prntscr.com/dyanax - IR at possible peak

user | MonseurRoussil97 | user

MayEdit

01E.ADRIANEdit

AOI: SE of MexicoEdit

Both the GFS and ECMWF consistently develop a hurricane to the south of Mexico in about 8 days. They're quite uncertain about the landfall location though. The GFS is insisting on landfall in El Salvador (!), while the ECMWF now moves this into Mexico but previously showed it doing some weird cyclonic loop while becoming a powerful major. Interesting days are ahead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:00, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC has put this on their TWO, with a 0/40 chance of forming. I won't be surprised if this becomes Adrian. TG 2017 17:11, May 6, 2017 (UTC)
Now up to 0/50. TG 2017 18:13, May 7, 2017 (UTC)

90E.INVESTEdit

20/70, this has a good chance to become Adrian sometime within the next week, looks like the EPac is getting off to another early start. Ryan1000 03:04, May 8, 2017 (UTC)

Now 50/80. Adrian is likely coming. TG 2017 20:20, May 8, 2017 (UTC)
70/90, should become Adrian sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. Unfortunately, the projected 5-day path takes this almost due northwest into southern Mexico or Central America instead of out to sea. Hopefully it's not too bad for them when it develops. Ryan1000 03:47, May 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-EEdit

Another off-season system.--Isaac829E-Mail 21:29, May 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm AdrianEdit

It could reach Cat 3 before landfall.--Isaac829E-Mail 03:32, May 10, 2017 (UTC)

The forecast for Mexico isn't looking good right now. I wouldn't rule it out being a Cat 4 either. TG 2017 10:36, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
And I thought I had seen everything. First, Arlene forms in April, and now, Adrian become the earliest named tropical cyclone in the history of the Eastern Pacific. This is a one of a kind storm. I do find it cool that the earliest named Central Pacific tropical cyclone formed a year ago. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:07, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
The forecast now shows that Adrian won't become a hurricane within five days. Adrian is also weakening to, so I don't know if it will actually reach hurricane strength at all. TG 2017 20:58, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
I think Adrian will become an Ivette-esque failure, or even a Failicia.108.69.97.185 23:09, May 10, 2017 (UTC)(Temp IP of 182)
CIMSS now shows Adrian as a TD. We'll wait for NHC to make it official before making a new header. Quite a bad bust, mix of Ivette and Failicia. 😡108.69.97.185 02:32, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression AdrianEdit

Remember Genevieve?--Isaac829E-Mail 03:26, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

More like Failicia now. NHC forecast no longer shows regeneration. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:58, May 11, 2017 (UTC)
I'm not sure if the earliest-forming known TC in the EPAC proper should be considered a fail. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone AdrianEdit

For what it's worth, though... ker-death. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:15, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

I would agree that the earliest storm isn't really a failure standard, but it shouldn't have been a puny storm like Failicia. TG 2017 22:53, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

02E.BEATRIZEdit

AOI:South of MexicoEdit

This is at a 50% chance of developing for the next 5 days. It may become Beatriz as it nears southern Mexico, though even if it doesn't heavy rain is going to happen either way. Ryan1000 04:15, May 29, 2017 (UTC)

0/50 for this system. It's just a few hundreds of miles from Mexico. :) 198.233.146.2 05:47, May 29, 2017 (UTC)
Now 10/60 for that. :) 70.190.5.175 21:12, May 29, 2017 (UTC)
Upgraded into 20/60. Now I can feel it's coming. :) 70.190.5.175 02:00, May 30, 2017 (UTC)
Now 70/80. The system's getting ready to form! :) 70.190.5.175 00:31, May 31, 2017 (UTC)
Models aren't being particularly enthusiastic about this due to its proximity to land, but it could still be damaging nonetheless. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:20, May 31, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVESTEdit

90/90 and T1.5 from SAB. ASCAT data from SAB shows 30 kt winds and a closed circulation. We might likely see advisories at 1100 hrs PDT...1800 UTC. --182.58.81.219 12:59, May 31, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-EEdit

Here it is, a new depression. 02E just formed from the invest. The NHC predicts that it will be named (Beatriz) and impact (not making landfall) Mexico. Advisory 1s are issued. :) 70.190.5.175 16:18, May 31, 2017 (UTC)

Also, I forgot to mention that a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect in Mexico. :) 70.190.5.175 16:22, May 31, 2017 (UTC)
Even if it doesn't become strong, it'sclose proximity to the coast of southern Mexico could mean serious rainfall for the southern tip of the country. The current forecast peak on this storm is 60 mph, but that's late in the period when it could be heading out to sea, at which point this could be a hurricane before it eventually dissipates. Ryan1000 18:26, May 31, 2017 (UTC)
Now it is forecasted to make landfall in Mexico. :) 70.190.5.175 00:57, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
Its now expected to head for the BoC. Does anybody feel that it could be a reverse Otto (in crossover)?182.58.51.145 05:10, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
Looks like the initial forecast was off, and this won't become much stronger than a minimal TS at this point when it hits southern Mexico tomorrow. 182, this is probably not going to survive crossing over to the BoC, because it's only going to be a minimal Beatriz or TD when it hits Mexico. Otto hit Costa Rica as a major hurricane and the distance Otto crossed to get to the EPac was much smaller than the distance this will have to cross to reach the Atlantic. Though I wouldn't put it past this to regenerate in the GoM, I wouldn't count on it. Ryan1000 05:26, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
Is the NHC insane?? Two-E has T#3.0, yet the advisory suggests a deterioration of the cloud pattern after the T# came as the reason its still a depression. CIMSS data says otherwise. In fact all data suggests that Two-E is a tropical storm. NHC is clearly crazy. 182.58.68.152 10:41, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
No, the NHC isn't insane. The T-numbers of the system do not matter, it is the actual intensity of the storm that matters. Now, Two-E is only going to be a depression. We'll wait much later in the month for Beatriz. TG 2017 12:44, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm BeatrizEdit

well this unexpected lol.

user | MonseurRoussil97 | user

18:32, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Woah, I never expected this would happen because of its proximity to Mexico. TG 2017 18:53, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
Unexpected to hear that we've the second TS in the basin this year. Despite the close proximity to Mexico, it intensified into a tropical storm. Never knew that this happened. :) 70.190.5.175 23:57, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
2017JUN02 004500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 15.77 96.58 FCST GOES13 30.9
Inland per CIMSS data. 182.58.57.41 02:07, June 2, 2017 (UTC)
EDIT- SAB also just declared a landfall.

Tropical Depression BeatrizEdit

Made landfall and weakened to TD.--182.58.83.25 07:17, June 2, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone BeatrizEdit

Dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over Mexico. Shear should not allow regeneration over the GoM.182.58.71.170 15:52, June 2, 2017 (UTC)

Welp, it's gone. Weakened into a PTC, Beatriz previously made landfall at Mexico. Beatriz killed 3 people as of now. :) 70.190.5.175 16:12, June 2, 2017 (UTC)
3 deaths and counting, that is. There are still several people missing. TG 2017 16:45, June 2, 2017 (UTC)
7 deaths now, hopefully it doesn't rise further. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:12, June 5, 2017 (UTC)

JuneEdit

03E.CALVINEdit

AOI:South of MexicoEdit

A new one is on the TWO, this is at 20% for 5 days. It might become a short-lived Calvin sometime next week. Ryan1000 21:02, June 8, 2017 (UTC)

10/30, but models aren't really enthusiastic on this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:58, June 10, 2017 (UTC)
Now upgraded to 30/50. :) 70.190.5.175 23:43, June 10, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVESTEdit

Invested and up to 60/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, June 11, 2017 (UTC)

90/90, this should become 3-E or Calvin very soon. It'll pass close to or make landfall over southern Mexico over the next few days. Ryan1000 20:33, June 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-EEdit

Forecast to become Calvin in a while. Tropical storm warnings are up again. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:01, June 12, 2017 (UTC)

This system is forecasted to be a short-lived TS as it makes landfall in Mexico. :) 70.190.5.175 05:21, June 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm CalvinEdit

As it was nearing Mexico, it intensified to our third TS of the season, Calvin. It will make landfall hours later. :) 70.190.5.175 23:41, June 12, 2017 (UTC)

It is now making landfall in Mexico. Expect floods to occur later. :) 70.190.5.175 02:22, June 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression CalvinEdit

Down to a TD, should die soon. Ryan1000 08:36, June 13, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of CalvinEdit

No longer a TC, but NHC says that Calvin will still cause flooding and mudslides over southern Mexico for the next few days. Ryan1000 14:38, June 13, 2017 (UTC)

04E.NONAMEEdit

AOI: South of Southern Mexico/GuatemalaEdit

Everyone is focused on Cindy, but here we have a 10/30 low-pressure system that is expected to develop slowly. Dora the Explorer anyone? :P ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:46, June 22, 2017 (UTC)

20/50. Models show moderate TS tracking well south of Baja California in about a week. UPDATE: 30/60 now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:21, June 23, 2017 (UTC)
50/70. Forecast to head offshore Mexico if it develops, but there's nothing besides Cindy right now in the Atlantic, so I guess it's nice to see the EPac kick up again. Ryan1000 13:04, June 23, 2017 (UTC)

93E.INVESTEdit

70/80 now. ECMWF brings this onshore near Jalisco, but the EPS brings this just east of Socorro Island, with the GFS, GFS-P, and ECMWF-P somewhere in between while the UKMEt develops this sooner but also kills it off too quickly, if the SHIPS shear forecasts are correct. The ECMWF keeps it weak, along with the UKMET and HWRF, but everything else makes this is a near hurricane or an actual one. Good chance this becomes the strongest EPAC storm of the season, and I'd give it a decent shot at a hurricane if this continues to organize before SST's due to the extreme southern California Current become less favorable in 4-5 days, where it will rapidly weaken. YE Pacific Hurricane 18:20, June 23, 2017 (UTC)

Dora (the Explorer😝) is coming very soon. This organized quicker than I ever expected. A weak hurricane is a major possibility from the invest, but a major is taking it too far due to the California Current it will encounter. ~ Steve <span My Edits📧 02:05, June 24, 2017 (UTC)
80/90. If 93E continues developing at this rate we may see Hurricane Dora in a couple of days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:21, June 24, 2017 (UTC)
90/90. This really shall become Dora. Anonymous 2.0(talk) 19:24, June 24, 2017 (UTC)
93E already looks like a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery. I hope this becomes stronger and longer-lived than the previous three EPAC tropical storms. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:15, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-EEdit

Invest 93E has developed enough convection and organization to be classified as a tropical depression per the NHC. With a current intensity of 25 knots (30 mph)/1006 mbar (hPa), the NHC forecasts Tropical Depression Four-E to move parallel to the Mexican coastline, bringing slight precipitation to areas such as Oaxaca and Guerrero. Intensitywise, the depression has approximately 48 hours of favorable conditions before reaching cooler waters. While the latest NHC forecasts calls for a peak intensity of 60 knots (70 mph), it is completely plausible that Four-E will become a hurricane, barring a re-Adrian does not occur. Here comes the explorer (assuming it becomes a tropical storm)! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:53, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

Four-E is probably going to be Dora the Explorer by tomorrow or so. I really am hoping a hurricane comes out of this, since there's nothing really stopping this thing until it encounters cool water by Tuesday. I like how we still associate the name with a show we watched when we were little kids. 😛 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:04, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:EPS model stormEdit

EPS has been showing for a few days and ECMWF is starting to pick up on this, on a tropical cyclone in about 10 days behind 93E. Should stay southwest of Socorro Island but too soon to say for intensity. YE Pacific Hurricane 18:20, June 23, 2017 (UTC)

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