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Current Systems: TROPICAL STORM LAN


This is the forum page for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, July, August, September
Storm Event Archives:Harvey, Irma, Maria

Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


Future StartEdit

The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)

Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)
As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)
The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. TG 2017 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

OctoberEdit

Since it's already October, I'm going to add this section right here. The Atlantic is sleepy and limited the tropical cyclones in this basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:07, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

I archived the September section just so you know. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:03, October 1, 2017 (UTC)
Even though there's nothing right now, you can't rule out something big in October, as we've seen in many of the more recent seasons. Also, according to the NHC's monthly weather summary for September, this season racked up more ACE in September than any other month on record, well eclipsing the previous record in September 2004, and so far, only 2004 and 1933 had more ACE than this year does so far. However, many of the seasons with higher ACE totals overall ended up having quite a bit of ACE due to strong late-season storms and that could very well happen with this year too, so we still can't let our guard down. Ryan1000 20:30, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

16L.NATEEdit

AOI: Western CaribbeanEdit

Marked on the TWO with a 0/20 chance of development. The Atlantic doesn't want to quiet down. - Garfield (02/10/17)

It sure doesn't. Thankfully due to its broad nature and land interaction this shouldn't get too strong. Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast a northwestern Florida landfall, though they disagree on speed and intensity. Generally, landfall is a week away. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:52, October 2, 2017 (UTC)
Potential-Nate looks like it could follow a path northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. I believe that a northwestern Florida landfall is the most likely scenario at this moment. This system could be one to watch for if the GOM ends up being very favorable... SSTs are warm, although I'm not sure about how wind shear or dry/stable air might affect it in the long run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:38, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
SST's are warmer in the NW Caribbean than the southern GOM, but there's 30-50 mph wind shear over the GOM right now, and it's not expected to settle much over the next few days, so this doesn't have a good chance of development for the time being, if at all. If this was in a more favorable shear environment, it could be much worse. However, the month has barely begun, and if shear settles down in the region later on in October or November, it's entirely possible we could see one more strong storm before this horribly destructive season ends for good. Let's just hope that if another strong storm does form, it doesn't hit a populated area; a worst-case scenario for this late time of year would be a Tampa bay hurricane; the 1921 storm, which was the last major hurricane to directly hit the city, didn't form until October 20. Ryan1000 04:14, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:23, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Both the Euro and GFS see this developing within a 96 hour time-frame and this will probably be a hurricane once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico and could according to models be a Category 1-2 that threatens the US Gulf Coast anywhere from NOLA to Tallahassee. Worth noting that a lot of the models have underestimated the strength of systems this year. Should watch this system closely could be the late season major everyone is worried about although I doubt this would get to Cat 4-5 a 3 cannot be ruled out based on GoM SST. --Whiplash (talk) 18:07, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVESTEdit

Woah, this jumped up faster than I thought it would, I didn't think a circulation could form as far south as Panama; it seemed to be forming farther north near the Yucatan earlier. The tropics are full of surprises it seems...This is now up to 40/60. Shear in the western Caribbean is expected to be almost non-existent for the next 3 or more days and this could explode in the northwestern Caribbean if it makes it there; both of the global models expect this to move into a landfall in Nicaragua and slowly restrengthen to a hurricane, maybe a strong one, before hitting Louisiana and moving over New Orleans (GFS) or recurving east to Panama City (Euro), kinda like Hurricane Ida did in November 2009. However, if this misses making landfall in Nicaragua and moves straight north to the northwestern Caribbean, which Ida '09 failed to do, then a cat 4 or 5 is very possible from this, given how favorable conditions are for RI in the NW Caribbean. The strong shear in the central to southern Gulf could either weaken it quite a bit before it hits the north Central Gulf Coast, or recurve it eastward towards a landfall on western Florida without wearing it down too much. If the latter happens, hopefully it's not near Tampa, the U.S. has seen more than enough destruction this year. All that aside, this is now Invest 90L and could become Nate over the next day or two. Ryan1000 19:37, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

I just checked out the TWO and thought this was a separate system. Surprising that it seems to be developing near Panama when it initially seemed to be forming near the Yucatan. Anyhow, this is looking very concerning in the long run and Central America, Yucatan, and especially the Gulf Coast need to watch out. We have had way too much devastation this year. Future-Nate, stay below major hurricane status please! D: ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:01, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Well, this is a system I'm going to have to watch for. Just checked the Euro model on this. If the Euro model pans out, my area will get a direct hit from this. I live in the area between Gulf Breeze and Navarre Florida, which is very close to Pensacola. The last time we've had a direct hit from a hurricane was Dennis. I hope that Future-Nate is nowhere near as bad.Not just for my area, but for the Gulf Coast, I hope things aren't too bad. We've had enough destruction this season. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:39, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Plz no major hurricane. We don't want more damage. Anyway, it's up to 50/70. This is yet another storm to watch. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:01, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
While models generally take future Nate towards the central Gulf coast, be aware that the ECMWF (Euro) ensemble presents several other options, most towards Florida from the panhandle as far south as Fort Myers. You know that feeling I got with Harvey, Irma, and Maria? It's coming back with this one. As a Tampa resident, and like Ryan said above, I hope to god that even in this year of all years that we don't get a hit here. We are the most vulnerable city in the United States and the 7th most vulnerable in the world. I'm keeping an eye on it but the consensus is west of Florida at this time with a majority of the model guidance otherwise, and tightly clustered over Louisiana/Central Gulf Coast. Since it is 5 days out there can still be huge changes in the track so I'm watching it closely. There's a chance the Bahamas disturbance gets much stronger unexpectedly and erodes the ridge allowing 90L to go much further east, but it has not pulled off anything like that yet. Owen 04:09, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
70/80, Nate is coming...this isn't looking good. Irma, as bad as it was for Florida, could've been a worst-case scenario for U.S. damage from a major hurricane if it hit Miami as a cat 5 and later Savannah, Georgia as a cat 4, like it was originally forecast to do, but thankfully, it didn't do that, and instead hit near the same area as Wilma did in 2005. While Irma was still very destructive, damage was much less than what Tampa or Miami would've seen if Irma hit either of those cities directly. Tampa may be in the path of another strong storm if Nate-to be explodes in the NW Caribbean, hopefully this doesn't do that, but mother nature really hasn't been kind to the U.S. this season, so we can't rule anything out, as bad as it could be. Ryan1000 10:24, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
90/90, expected to form within the next 24 hours, and recon will arrive in about 6 hours' time. Nate is coming. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:19, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression SixteenEdit

From the NHC's site - "Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea." Seriously, with the damage being in excess of $262 billion (per Wikipedia), why can't the Atlantic take a break from these destructive cyclones? 182.58.99.196 14:25, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

I knew it looked too good to be an invest. If this intensifies into Nate and becomes a hurricane, it'll be our ninth straight hurricane. Major hurricane status isn't out of the question either. NHC forecasts a Category 1 Hurricane moving ashore on the Florida panhandle. - Garfield

You guys beat me to it. Anyways, the NHC will begin issuing advisories on 16L/Nate at 11 AM EDT. I feel like this is going to be another destructive hurricane. But it's too early to say that it's going down as a damaging hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
@Garfield: While major hurricane status is possible I think that the max potential effects from this thing in the U.S. would be as a low-end Cat 3 I've seen some people saying oh this could be a 4 or a 5 but I actually don't think the temperatures in the GoM could sustain a storm of this kind of intensity at the moment. We of course cannot rule out the potential for RI over the Western Caribbean as many storms in the past have done. However, I don't see future Nate as being another Cat 4 threat to the U.S. most likely will be a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 upon landfall which could potentially be damaging but shouldn't be super-destructive. --Whiplash (talk) 15:43, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
Sixteen is currently forecast to reach minimal hurricane strength and then hit the Florida Panhandle as it rapidly weakens.12.144.5.2 16:35, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
The discussion mentions that rapid intensification is a possibility as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. So that intensity forecast by the NHC may be conservative. It seems likely we could be looking at another major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. To-be Nate might go as far as to be our 4th real retirement candidate of the year, unfortunately. Let's all hope that it remains below major hurricane status, as we have had way too much devastation this year. I'm particularly worried for Leeboy, who lives directly in the path of to-be Nate. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 16:40, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

A few thoughts:

  1. The Euro and GFS once again can't seem to agree. They have a current landfall disagreement of ~250 miles. That is a huge discrepancy and I tend to think that the Euro is on the right track here.
  1. Euro has it making landfall at 960mb. That is scary, because with the way this season has gone, you can almost assume that the actual low pressure will be 10-20 mb lower than what was forecasted 3-4 days out. If this thing gets in the 950s or even worse 940s, we may be dealing with another catastrophic hit.
  1. Interaction with Central America and the Yucatan along with strong shear near the gulf coast and a deep trough, could lead to a tropical storm landfall. On the other hand, there is a chance that there is minimal landfall interaction, the trough pushes north and shear moves out, and Nate blows up in the Gulf with the potential of dropping 20-30 mb in less than 24 hours in the gulf.
  1. So many questions yet to be answered, everything at this point is speculation until it clears the Yucatan. One thing is for sure though, a named system will make landfall this weekend.

Also, I found something quite interesting. The track of the 1921 Tampa hurricane is almost identical to where TD16 formed, and all the way up until the predicted landfall point (where the forecast takes it into the panhandle). Owen 19:52, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

This is scaring me. It's heading straight towards me, and the NHC is saying that there's a chance that this could rapidly intensify. The good news is, where I live, people are actually already starting to prepare. A neighbor down the street from me has gotten his old storm shutters out. (I know they're old, because written on the shutters are "Go away Ivan Dennis.") We've seen what Harvey did by rapidly intensifying before landfall, and are not taking any chances. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:03, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

I mentioned before that RI in the northwestern Caribbean to cat 4 or stronger intensity could happen with this, but only if it misses making landfall in Central America, and fortunately the current NHC forecast for TD 16 does not expect this to miss making landfall in Central America, like Ida of 2009. Because of that, interaction with the mountainous terrain of CA should slow this down and disrupt the small circulation of this enough to keep it from RI'ing in the Caribbean; Ida '09 was lucky enough to reach Cat 2 intensity in the region after her small circulation was heavily disrupted after moving over Nicaragua, but shear was also lower for Ida at the time. Today, shear is currently very hostile over the GoM and has all but ripped apart the near 0% AOI near the Florida Keys right now, and unless it settles down over the next few days, between interaction with Central America and shear over the Gulf, this may not get very strong; the late-forecast period of the cone only makes this a cat 1 in Panama City or so, which wouldn't be that bad. EDIT: Whiplash, it's not that SST's aren't warm in the GOM, they're actually pretty favorable, but wind shear is so hostile for devlopment that nothing can form; shear is currently at 30-50 mph in the southeast GOM and the AOI near the keys is just about dead because of it. Shear in the NW Caribbean is almost non-existent, but even slight interaction with the mountains of CA can seriously disrupt the circulations of small cyclones like TD 16. Ida of 2009 was forecast to be a cat 5 by some of the models if it missed Central America, but fortunately that didn't happen, hopefully what happened to Ida will happen to this too. Ryan1000 20:26, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
@Ryan: Thanks for the input. I'm not trying to imply that temperatures are cold they are still favorable for maintaining a strong tropical cyclone however they are not the same temperatures we saw in front of Irma and Maria earlier in the year and won't sustain a large hurricane of Cat 4-5 for long, especially as you have noted above due to the unfavorable wind shear environment and also I doubt the outflows from this system will be that good either. That was what I was trying to imply not that the temperatures aren't conducive for a tropical cyclone. They are but not for a strong tropical cyclone with other criteria factored in. If these were like the temperatures we saw earlier in the year I would say a 4 or 5 would be possible but I really don't think so in this circumstance, but we will see how the atmospheric dynamics evolve as this system gets closer to the GoM. --- Edit: Also just reread your post and I think you seem to think I'm saying RI to a Cat 4/5 is not possible in the Caribbean. I think it is possible however I don't see this kind of strength being maintained in the GoM should it happen. I still think a worst-case scenario from this thing for the U.S. would be as a low end Cat 3. With most likely impacts being in the Cat 1-Cat 2 range. --Whiplash (talk) 21:03, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
Hopefully land interaction with CA and the Yucatan stop this thing from exploding by the time it gets into the Gulf. The shear in the GOM should also hopefully stop any major intensification. But knowing how this season has gone, I won't be too surprised if it tries to avoid the land and we get yet another devastating beast. I doubt this will become anything more than C3 though due to the factors mentioned above, unless it tries to miss the land obstacles in its path leading to the GOM. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:50, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
I agree, hopefully we won't see an RI in the Gulf. I doubt that this will be a major, hopefully. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:39, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
This storm appears to be getting its act together fairly well in the latest sattelite loops and it appears to be taking a slight northward jog, RI isn't out of the question, but it depends on how close it gets to Central America. If the NHC is right on this and it hits Central America (hopefully they are), then this probably won't get too strong in the Caribbean, since, like I mentioned before, even slight interaction with the mountains can seriously impact small cyclones like this one. As far as I'm concerned, SST's weren't exactly record-warm with Irma and Maria earlier this year Whiplash, just above-normal, but because those two storms had virtually no wind shear or dry air in their path, let alone land interaction, they got to be as strong as they were. This does have some shear to deal with down the road when it reaches the southern GOM, and it does have Central America to deal with before it reaches the NW Caribbean, but it could still become a cat 2-3 hurricane down the road. If Central America wasn't in the path of this thing, then I can only imagine how strong this could get before reaching the GOM. Ryan1000 02:37, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
@Ryan: I'm pretty sure the SST in front of Irma were exceptionally toasty some places in the 30-31 range before the Bahamas right now most of the GoM is about 28-29 and with the other invest going to move across I'm sure it will be cooler by a degree once this system gets there. I'm not sure as much about the SST with Maria but again the conditions were far more favorable than they will be with this system. Will be interesting to see how it develops none the less. --Whiplash (talk) 02:43, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Oh I know SST's were very warm in front of Irma, but as warm as they were, they were not at their warmest values ever recorded, and in either instance, Irma (and later Maria) had little to no unfavorable shear or dry air in her path, which this storm does have to deal with. NHC does state in the 11 PM discussion that their intensity forecast is uncertain with this storm when it reaches the NW Caribbean, but it all depends on how much Nicaragua and Honduras wear down the circulation of this. Since this is a compact cyclone, I believe that interaction with the coastal mountains of the two countries will wear this down considerably, enough to keep it from blowing up too much in the NW Caribbean, but it's still too soon to tell for sure. If it strengthens more than the current forecast anticipates in the NW Caribbean, then a turn east sooner and towards Florida is more likely, as the 00Z Euro indicates. The GFS, however, doesn't indicate much strengthening in the NW Caribbean after interacting with CA and takes it over the Yucatan and into Louisiana as a tropical storm. I personally think a landfall there is too far west, but it would be a best-case scenario for this regarding impacts, hopefully the GFS is right this time. Ryan1000 03:40, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Agreed, the GFS needs to be correct this time. It would be nice if Nate stays respectfully weak and gets torn apart by Honduras and Nicaragua, enough for it to kinda struggle in the upcoming favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean. I've absolutely had enough of devastation, and so has everyone else here (unless you're psychopathic :P). This TD should intensify to be named overnight. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:03, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Still no Nate. It seems unlikely that it will get named before landfall, so we probably have a bit longer to wait - Garfield

Tropical Storm Nate Edit

I'll eat my words. NHC just called Nate. - Garfield

Not likely to get much stronger before moving over Honduras and Nicaragua later today. Due to his small circulation, there's even an outside chance Nate might temporarily dissipate over the mountains. Landfall location for the Gulf has shifted westward towards Louisiana/Mississippi. Maybe the GFS wasn't too crazy for calling a landfall that far west after all. Ryan1000 12:21, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
I absolutely hope that it won't be another destructive storm. I had seen enough of destruction for one year. And really Atlantic? You're producing such destructive hurricanes for the year? Stop producing destruction in... well, anywhere in this basin Atlantic! Or else...umm... I will watch only in the Pacific, your ocean enemy, right? Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Bad news. It is being confirmed that there have already been 15 deaths from Nate in Nicaragua. We now have another deadly storm on our hands. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:55, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Now at 17, this could be our next retirement candidate if this keeps up. TG 2017 20:03, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Scratch what I just said. 22 deaths in Central America. Nate is already worse than I expected. TG 2017 20:38, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
The thing with Nate is that is crossing the least montainous terrain Honduras have. The moskitia coast and the Gracias a Dios department of Honduras is the flattest part of the country so Nate will not be severely disrupt as many thing. I live in Honduras and so far we havent get much rain, compare to our neighbors, Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica. People in Costa Rica are calling this storm worse than Mitch and Cesar as flooding have been extreme in the country, if current trends continue I dont doubt Costa Rica or Nicaragua asking for retirement, as the death toll is expect to increase. Allan Calderini. AllanCalderini21 (talk) 21:16, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Can't believe 22 deaths has already occurred. That's what happens when a tropical system combines with a gyre, I guess. Nate already has at least a small retirement chance because of these deaths. The impacts in the region remind me of Otto from last year, except weaker winds. Nate has been even deadlier in Nicaragua than Otto was. Considering Otto was retired, this could already have a decent chance as well. Anyway, the future of Nate still looks relatively concerning. The SHIPS RI index is still high and it's headed straight for the Gulf Coast. Nate is likely going to be a real troublemaker... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:22, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Even if the terrain this moved over isn't the highest in Honduras or Nicaragua, Nate's small circulation has still been disrupted quite a bit due to that land interaction, and it's unlikely Nate will strengthen very much over the NW Caribbean due to interaction with Honduras and Nicaragua, and a subsquent landfall that will take place over the Yucatan sometime tomorrow night. When Nate reaches the GOM, conditions will be even less favorable than the Caribbean is right now, and while Nate could strengthen to a hurricane in the northern Gulf, currently cat 1 is all the NHC is calling for, it could get a bit stronger than that but not much. If this didn't hit Central America and stayed over the open waters into the NW Caribbean it would've been much worse, though it's still a sad story to see over 20 people killed in Central America. If Costa Rica axed Otto last year, then Nate might be a surprisingly good retirement contender as well. Ryan1000 22:31, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
I doubt this will become a major anymore. At most, Nate could approach C2 status due to interaction with CA and the Yucatan. Latest intermediate advisory keeps Nate at the same winds and pressure. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:51, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Nate is almost out of Honduras. I definitely doubt that this will be a major. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:49, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

I've seen pictures on The Weather Channel of really bad flooding in Costa Rica. Nate now looks like he also has a chance at retirement. So, I think it's safe to say that Harvey, Irma, and Maria are guaranteed retirement. However, if Nate is also retired after this season, that right there would bring the retired names up to 4. Which is second-highest amount of names retired in a single season, tying 1955, 1995, and 2004, and it would be the highest number of retired names since 2005. There is also a teeny-tiny chance that Don could also be axed (or fired) due to political reasons, though that seems extremely unlikely. If Don goes too, which again, now seems incredibly unlikely, that will bring the total up to 5. Which ties the record set by 2005 for most names retired. What a crazy season this has been. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 01:14, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

If Nate get retired, we'll have two pairs of consecutive retired names: Harvey and Irma, and Maria and Nate. Hurricane Fred (talk) 01:38, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
This season is already freaking me out. In addition, 1955 had also two pairs of consecutive retired names (Connie and Diane, Ione and Janet). If all four of the names are retired (Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate), this will be the second occurrence of that. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:18, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
(edit conflict) I was about to point that out 68, yep, 1955 was the only other season to have two pairs of consecutive retirements. Nate is still managing to hold onto TS intensity as it slowly moves over Honduras, but the intensity may be generous for the time being since Nate is under 20 knots of southwesterly shear right now and much of the convection has weakened or died off due to interaction with land. While the shear is expected to weaken tomorrow as Nate moves over the gulf of Honduras towards the Yucatan, interaction with land has put a halt to his organization and I'd be very surprised if Nate becomes a hurricane or so before hitting the Yucatan tomorrow night. Furthermore, the NHC's SHIPS rapid intensification index is surprisingly high over the GOM with this, and the currently predicted 80 mph peak in the gulf could be conservative, though hopefully that's as far as Nate will go. We don't need any more mass destruction this year. Ryan1000 02:27, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

11PM update: No change in strength, eye is still in Honduras but hurricane watches have been issued in Louisiana and tropical storm watches in other parts of the central Gulf Coast. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

I really think that Nate is bound to be another 2017 overperformer. I hope Nate doesn't try to explode before hitting Louisiana. New Orleans cannot take another major hurricane. As I see it, Nate looks bound to be a Cat 2/3 before landfall if the trends continue - he's getting a taste of that warm Caribbean untapped water now and wind shear is starting to drop. Owen 05:40, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

Nate has just emerge from the Honduran coast and its already strengthening. Looks like Yucatan might get a cat 1 landfall if current trends continues. I guess Nate was stronger than thought when it made landfall over Nicaragua as it has not weaken anything. AllanCalderini21 (talk) 05:54, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

Nate is beginning to pick up speed as it heads north-northwest, he was moving at only 7 mph yesterday, now that speed has doubled to 14 mph and he's expected to move even faster as time goes on and be in the GOM as soon as tonight or tomorrow morning. That's why there are already hurricane watches in effect for the gulf coast, because he's going to be moving faster. While moving faster means Nate has less time to intensify, it also means that shear may lose its grip on Nate. While I was fearing a cat 4-5 worst-case scenario with Nate earlier on, it doesn't look like Nate has enough time to get that strong by now, due to land interaction and his increasing forward speed. I'd be surprised if Nate doesn't become at least a cat 1 hurricane however. Ryan1000 09:45, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

Now caused at least 34 deaths: 15 in Nicaragua, 8 in Costa Rica, 7 in Panama, 3 in Honduras, and 1 in El Salvador. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 14:23, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

Nate will be a minimal hurricane at most before making landfall at Louisiana. Intensity is up to 45 mph/996 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:26, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Now at 50 mph. Pressure unchanged. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:52, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 60 mph/993 mbars. This is getting its act together and could be a hurricane when it reaches the GOM. The NHC still says in the discussion that RI is possible, but I doubt it will reach C2 or higher. A major is almost definitely out of the question, thankfully. The 34 deaths in Central America is totally saddening. It's more deaths than even Otto last year. Nate probably already has as high as a ≥50% chance of retirement due to impacts in Central America alone. Overall, Nate could go after this year as it still has the Yucatan and the Gulf Coast in its cone. A hurricane warning is issued for southeastern Louisiana, and the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines BTW. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:53, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Nate is really haulin' ass thanks to the monsoon jet in his proximity and is moving extremely fast for a storm in this region of the basin. Does anyone know what the fastest moving tropical system in the Caribbean is? I know storms move really quickly as they move north in the Atlantic but this seems to be quite quick for this region. If Nate somehow misses the Yucatan and RI's in the Gulf this would be a nightmare for NOLA as there would be practically no time to evacuate this thing will be striking them in just over ~24 hours. I still don't think a major is likely for Nate as he is moving to quickly, waters aren't that warm and the monsoon jet should thwart the development of good symmetry for outflow. --Whiplash (talk) 22:49, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Oh no, recon just found hurricane-force winds. Fred (talk) 23:22, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Don't confuse surface level and flight level TrueDash. Most recent pass suggests winds of 55 knts at surface level on highest reading which is only about 65mph. Not hurricane force yet. :-) --Whiplash (talk) 23:35, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Nate has been heading farther north than due west recently and it's looking likey he'll pass through the Yucatan Channel between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, so Nate might not interact with land again before he reaches the gulf coast of the U.S. and he could get stronger, though interaction with Central America has certainly slowed his rate of intensification. Earlier today, Nate's northeastern eyewall was exposed and that led to him only being a minimal tropical storm for most of today; however Nate appears to be getting his act together by now. Still, most of the 125-mile radius of TS force winds are east of the center, and stronger winds are more tightly wound near the center, so Nate could be more prone to weakening due to his small size, but as I mentioned before, his somewhat fast forward movement of 21 mph could be beneficial to intensification as well, since it means shear won't be able to get a hold of him as easily. Regardless, the north central gulf coast from the Panhandle to New Orlenas should watch out. Whiplash, Chantal of July 2013 moved at a blazing 26 mph through the Caribbean sea briefly before it dissipated. If you're looking at stronger storms that weren't short-lived like Chantal, Allen of 1980 moved at a fairly rapid forward speed of 17 to 23 mph while he was racing through the Caribbean in early August. While Nate is moving fairly quickly, this isn't a record for the region. I also recall Wima racing northeast fairly fast as it approached and made landfall in southern Florida in October 2005. Ryan1000 23:42, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Thanks for the info Ryan. I knew Wilma was a fast mover but I thought the fast movement started more after she left the Yucatan and was already in the GoM. Allan is a good example though in the Caribbean. I have always thought of Caribbean systems as slow and lumbering. Onto other commentary now. Nate looks strongly like it will take a very similar route to Katrina in 2005. Intensity will be crucial here to determining ultimate impacts but I still say a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 is most likely intensity for this thing. If it goes any stronger we will have a guaranteed retirement candidate here as a Cat 3 would have extremely severe impacts on this region probably the worst since Katrina herself. --Whiplash (talk) 23:49, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, this will be like Katrina. New Orleans better prepare for the hurricane that is coming up. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Nate is up to 65 mph/990 mbars. Well, this won't be anywhere near Katrina's devastation unless a miracle happens and Nate makes landfall as a slow-moving C4+ major, which isn't going to happen (especially the slowing down part). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:01, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
And just as I said that new advisory at 65mph and 990mb. Track also shifting ever so slightly to the east which is good for NOLA and bad news for MS and AL. Storm will also miss the Yucatan in this case too which may aid in getting some additional strengthening. --Whiplash (talk) 23:58, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
I should note that New Orlenas has extremely sturdy levees surrounding the city that were built after Katrina hit, and these held their own during Isaac of 2012, which hit on the 7th anniversary of Katrina. While the southern outskirts of the city could get hit harder if Nate comes to a landfall in LA, downtown New Orleans is a lot more prepared now than they were before Katrina hit, and I'd be surprised if Nate winds up being as bad as Katrina. However, Alabama and Mississippi are still vulnerable, and they haven't seen a considerable major hurricane besides Katrina since Dennis/Ivan. But hopefully Nate doesn't become a major hurricane before landfall, because if it does it'll do a ton of damage regardless of preparation, and the north central gulf coast hasn't seen an October major hurricane landfall since Hurricane Opal in 1995, if memory serves. Ryan1000 00:23, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
See the concern I have with this storm is not so much for NOLA as I am totally aware of the new levee system. My concern is with the gulf coasts of MS and AL. We have a very interesting situation setting up with the monsoonal jet that is helping to propel the system which could exaggerate the storm surge effects of Nate. With this kind of dynamic and the coast line we could see very destructive storm surges relative to a storm of this intensity which are extremely concerning. Gulfport, MS and Biloxi, MS should be watching this storm with extreme interest. Edit: Also I like your Opal comparison as this very much could be comparable to that storm with how things are shaping up. --Whiplash (talk) 00:33, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
70 mph at the new advisory and expected to make landfall with ~85mph winds.12.144.5.2 03:14, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane NateEdit

Special 10:30 CST advisory. Nate has been upgraded to a hurricane. Winds at 75 mph, pressure at 988. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 03:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Nate is becoming increasingly worrying for southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi/Alabama coastlines. They better prepare quickly, as Nate is moving fast. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:04, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Wow, Nate is already a hurricane and strengthening further and I don't see a trough pulling it NE anytime in the near future. This is no normal convection signature, and it's one of the strongest I've ever seen in this basin. Don't know if that measurement is kept, but this cloud height and temperature are some of the strongest I've seen and rivals the WPAC for convection strength before eyewall development within a storm. The high over the SE in place is not budging. I have a feeling New Orleans/Biloxi/Mobile area will be freaking out big time in the morning...will be the third hurricane to hit continental US this year and expecting to now see a 2/3 at landfall. Owen 04:07, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Deeply concerning developments let us hope RI is not now underway. --Whiplash (talk) 04:23, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Wow, I didn't expect Nate to become a hurricane early. Preparations are underway for the hurricane in Louisiana. Nate is currently threatening the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:56, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Have to say the structure of this thing is disturbingly impressive within the last 2 hours if it eye I would think this was a Cat 3-4 already. --Whiplash (talk)
I hope not. A Cat. 1 is enough and I don't want it to be major. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:58, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Recon showing preliminary surface winds of 75 knts this thing is approaching Cat 2 status and fast pressure appears to be 986 or 985. This is intensifying and fast. Boy the models got the intensity on this thing wrong as did I. I guess this was always a concern if it missed the Yucatan. Environmental conditions are also becoming more favorable a Cat 3 is a very real possibility hitting the Gulf and with conditions and how the structure is coming together I wouldn't even rule out a 4. Here we go again another massively destructive storm incoming. They won't have time to evacuate vulnerable areas either so we better hope those upgraded levees hold as this thing is also speeding up and will be on the U.S. tomorrow night. I'm pretty sure 2017 is already the most expensive season ever but Nate will make sure of it. Retirement number 4 100% incoming. --Whiplash (talk) 05:02, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

From here on out I shall refer to Nate as Katrina V.2... This is getting really ugly and fast. HMON model showing a Cat 3 landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 05:08, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Hey Katrina V.2... [1] --Whiplash (talk) 05:13, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Hoping Nate doesn't get above C2, though anything is possible now that he has a tight inner core. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:42, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Currently Nate is at 80 mph and 987 mbars and forecast to be 90 mph, but he could pull off a brief round of RI before landfall tomorrow morning, and the folks on the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines should prepare or evacuate quickly today as there is a distinct possibility Nate could become a cat 2 or even 3 before landfall. And we now have 9 consecutive hurricanes, which is one short of tying 1893 and 1886 for the most ever in one season, if we can get one more this season we'll tie the record. Ryan1000 09:31, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

85 mph and 986 mbar. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:49, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

New update is in 90mph and 984 mbar expected to be a Cat 2 on landfall in official forecasts now. Also moving at 26mph!!! Wtf Nate calm down. Though this is good as if he will be impacting land earlier should stop him from getting to a 3. --Whiplash (talk) 15:03, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, slow down Nate. This hurricane wants to destroy everything so fast that he is rushing. Really Nate? Give them some time to prepare. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:25, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
I wonder if it is possible for Nate to become a major hurricane. Not that I want it, just curious. What are the chances? Also, Nate's death toll is now at 36. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 15:30, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Imo, the water levels around Louisiana would suggest Cat 3 as an upper limit for intensity. Thing is since the storm is moving so fast it likely won't be able to get to that strength before landfall. However, especially near Biloxi tonight thanks to the monsoonal jet that has been mentioned several times with this system winds will be stronger than perhaps anticipated and Biloxi should expect lots of gusts in the Cat 3 range some of which have been showing to get up to 123 mph on certain models. Biloxi is going to take a rather large beating and storm surges are now projected to be up to 11 feet in MS. Gulfport and Mobile also will see significant impacts from this thing. Luckily Nate is relatively lopsided with the worst effects on the east so NOLA should not be hit very hard by Nate. Same cannot be said for MS/AL. --Whiplash (talk) 15:43, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Nate looking quite similar to the 1906 Mississippi hurricane, albeit smaller and less intense. However, I think it gives a good idea of the potential damage Nate could cause especially along the MS coast. --Whiplash (talk) 16:15, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Also fun tidbit according to Brian Brettschneider on Twitter only two storms have had faster movement speeds in the GoM over water than Nate: Hurricane Eloise (1975) and the 1920 Louisiana Hurricane. [2] --Whiplash (talk) 16:22, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

1 PM update, intensity up to 90 mph/982 mbar. I doubt that this will be a Category 2 due to the proximity to land and it's moving fast. In other words, Nate is nearing landfall on Louisiana. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:54, October 7, 2017 (UTC) Edit: Never mind, Nate is slowing down. Just forget the edit.

So it's not slowing down? Good. Better not intensify. On an unrelated note, a news station in my country is claiming that Nate is a C2. Weird. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:12, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
That news station should fact-check. Nate is closing in on Louisiana and I hope it won't get too destructive there. C2 is looking very possible right before landfall, and the NHC is forecasting it to strengthen to that category. I would prefer it to stay below C2 though, because the stronger the winds, the worse the wind damage will be upon landfall. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:27, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Lets just hope that the random news station in my country is wrong and Nate doesn't become a C2... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:42, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, we should all hope that Nate doesn't reach the C2 status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:48, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

It's not a C2. New advisory just came out, winds haven't changed. The pressure did go down by 1 millibar, though. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:54, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

So I guess the question is will Nate or won't Nate Cat 2. There is a final round of convection shooting up. See if this pushes it over or not. Either way storm surge gonna cause a mess in MS/AL. --Whiplash (talk) 22:53, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
I highly doubt it. Recon isn't finding anything to support an intensity of 80kt, will probably get reduced to 70 or 75 kt shortly. Kiewii 23:47, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Looks like you were right Kiewii, the 7 PM CDT advisory knocks Nate down to 85 mph and 982 mbars, but even though he failed to reach cat 2, Nate's rapid forward speed means he's probably going to bring heavier impacts than a normal hurricane of this intensity would bring. So this could still be somewhat damaging. Ryan1000 23:55, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Nate has made landfall on Louisiana. I'm glad that this wasn't a Cat 2. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:49, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

It is official - Nate has made its first landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River earlier. It's heading towards a second landfall on the Mississippi coast. Storm surge and impacts could be quite intense and life-threatening, and I hope those riding out the storm are safe and staying indoors. Heavy rainfall is spreading to the east of Nate's center and affecting much of the state of Alabama, as well as the Florida Panhandle and Mississippi. The coast of Mississippi is getting hit particularly hard with the worst and most central rainband near Biloxi and Pascagoula. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:58, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Has now made its second landfall. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 05:44, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Eye now north of Biloxi.12.144.5.2 05:58, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
It's great that Nate didn't become a C2 after all. Still, Nate's chances of being retired are getting higher and higher. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 06:54, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
It's going to weaken to a TS when it crosses Alabama. Should dissipate in a couple of days. Hi!-68.106.0.77 07:15, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nate (2nd time)Edit

Down to a TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:51, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Weakening rapidly. Winds down to 45 mph. Pressure up to 994. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 13:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression NateEdit

35 mph and final NHC advisory issued.12.144.5.2 14:57, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

This is weakening much quicker than I expected. Should dissipate in a day or two. --BeamOfSunlight (talk) 14:59, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

The flooding from Nate in and around the Biloxi area is pretty bad. Obviously not Katrina levels bad, but still bad. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 15:17, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

The future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:30, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Nate weakened quicker than I expected. :P Biloxi and surrounding coastlines have gotten pounded by Nate's storm surge, etc. I obviously never expected anywhere near Katrina's devastation due to Nate's quick movement and lesser intensity. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:02, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
It doesn't appear Nate was too bad for the gulf coast, this could've been much stronger if Nate didn't make landfall in Central America earlier in his life, but he did, and that slowed him down enough to keep him from getting past category 1 intensity. Ryan1000 19:51, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
I will just wait for the system to dissipate. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:14, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
...Which should be soon. The WPC is now issuing advisories, and they forecast Nate to become post-tropical/extratropical in 12 hours. Nate rain is spreading over a wide area from Ohio to Georgia, currently. Doesn't look like the storm ended up too bad and obviously pales in comparison to Harvey, Irma and Maria. Thankfully Nate moved himself into Central America instead of avoiding it. :) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:35, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
Nate in the Tennessee-Kentucky border. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:23, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone NateEdit

Nate has finally dissipated and the NHC has ceased issuing advisories on the storm. The Weather Prediction Center will keep issuing advisories for a few more days, but after that this should dissipate for good. Ryan1000 10:40, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

R.I.P. Nate. Thankfully, there's still no reported casualties in the United States. But the amount of deaths and impact in Central America alone could result in a chance of retirement for "Nate". The damage in the United States was quite minor especially compared to three very obvious monsters that struck earlier this season. Tornadoes have been reported in the Carolinas and in areas closer to landfall such as Alabama. I'd have to say that the Gulf Coast has been spared a monstrous hit. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:35, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
This storm has caused $2.52 billion in damages. That's more than Isaac. TG 2017 21:29, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

If Otto was retired after causing 10 deaths & $190 million worth of damages in Costa Rica, then Nate may have a greater chance to be retired too: 11 deaths so far and $185 million worth of damages. 45 deaths in total, and $2.5 billion in the U.S. is still a substantial amount. Good riddance, but thankfully Nate wasn't as bad as expected. Still a nasty storm though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Woah, I didn't expect Nate to be that destructive for Costa Rica, Nate may have a near-certain chance of retirement by now, even though he was overshadowed in the U.S. Ryan1000 11:19, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
I never expected Nate to be this destructive either. Costa Rica or surrounding countries like Nicaragua is most likely going to ask for the retirement of Nate, and that gives Nate a high chance of being retired next spring. However, in the event that the Central American countries somehow snub it, U.S. damages still shouldn't cut it since they snubbed Isaac and Nate was barely more destructive than Isaac. It was also completely overshadowed in the U.S. and its territories by the three monsters. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:19, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Near BahamasEdit

Another one near the Bahamas (0/0 on the TWO) but this shouldn't develop at all. Upper-level winds should rip this thing apart. I think it was a waste of time to put this up on the outlook, lol. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:40, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Up to 10/10, but likely not going to develop due to strong shear over the GoM. Ryan1000 19:38, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, it would have to defy all odds to become named. Heavy rain will affect Florida and the Bahamas though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:04, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
Back down to 0/0. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 16:48, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
Still on the TWO but I definitely doubt that his would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:06, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Stu Ostro posted [[3]] on twitter, it appeared that it's more organized.Hurricane Fred (talk) 01:40, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Off the TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:00, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

17L.OPHELIAEdit

AOI: Southwest of AzoresEdit

This low pressure is about 900 mi southwest from the Azores. It's at 0/20 right now. It may or may not develop, we'll see. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:40, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

I think systems in this region have a tendency to spin up rather rapidly. This might be a candidate for Ophelia. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:24, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
This could be Arlene v2.Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:24, October 5, 2017 (UTC)Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:23, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Intensity-wise I'm hoping this is a Alex 2016 v2. Since this is going to be a fish I'd like the hurricane streak to continue. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:11, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Now up to 20/50. --BeamOfSunlight (talk) 18:08, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Potential Ophelia looks like an in-season version of Arlene or Alex. If this became a hurricane we would have 10 hurricanes in a row!!! (Since Nate is almost certainly going to become a hurricane) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:58, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
I hope it to become a hurricane. I don't want it to be a fail like Ramon just did. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:00, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 30/60. A hurricane would be awesome, but we have had way too many in a row this season. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:04, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 40/60 now. Fred (talk) 05:54, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

91L.INVESTEdit

Invested, 70/70. Ophelia is coming... TG 2017 12:02, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Looks like Ophelia today, already. Jdcomix (talk) 13:59, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
The 70/70 comes with the caveat that the 2-day window is basically all the time it's got before the environment gets hostile...the 5-day chance is all within the 2-day.12.144.5.2 14:36, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
In that case, if this becomes Ophelia then the 9 hurricane streak will be broken. Unless it somehow becomes a hurricane in the 2 (?) days before conditions become worse. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 15:34, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Future Ophelia, well, will mostly stay out to sea. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:49, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
I don't know if this will go as far as to be named "Ophelia". The NHC says that it only has "a day or so" to develop before conditions turn hostile. Hoping it will only be a subtropical TD. Don't want a name wasted like Ramon in the EPac. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:30, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
I'd also prefer that this isn't named. Mostly just because this probably won't go above tropical storm status, which would break the 9 hurricane streak. I would like to see the 10 hurricane streak record tied this year. Unless, of course, a named storm is about to strike a populated area. In that case, it would be better for the storm to stay below hurricane status. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:37, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Now I really doubt that it'll steal the name Ophelia. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
"Has lost some organization in the last few hours",per TWO.12.144.5.2 05:58, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

91L looks almost like a naked swirl right now. Also, gale-force winds have been reported. If shower activity increases just a bit more near the center, we likely have Subtropical Storm Ophelia. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:06, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

80/80 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:25, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression SeventeenEdit

The seemingly done INVEST pulled a convective burst out of nowhere and is now a tropical depression. It's also predicted to reach moderate tropical storm strength while bouncing about in the middle of nowhere. Considering this year, I'm happy with this. Jake52 (talk) 08:45, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Some of the regional models such as HMON and HWRF even show a hurricane with this as shear could lighten up over the next few days and SST's are expected to remain near 27 degrees celsius, but after that an upper-level trough will likely pull this storm (Ophelia) faster to the northeast and dissipate it. If this becomes Hurricane Ophelia before that though, then 2017 would tie 1886 aand 1893 for the most consecutive hurricanes in an Atlantic season, with 10. Ryan1000 10:40, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
It's in the middle of nowhere, so do a Lee, please. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:25, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, pull a Lee! I want you to RI please. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:16, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm OpheliaEdit

And we're ahead of 2016... 40/1008, and the hurricane streak might end. TG 2017 14:41, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Its actually forecast to become a hurricane in 96hrs. 182.58.71.0 14:55, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

EDIT : Ophelia, don't you dare strengthen, its forecast to be approaching the Azores. Could we see retirement candidate no. 5? 182.58.45.0 15:02, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Oh, Ophelia, you've been my mind girl like a drug. LOL  Fred (talk) 22:14, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

I must say Ophelia formed quickly. Why do I feel Ophelia will be like Nadine 2012? Anyway, I hope she follows the footsteps of Lee. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:51, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
I have to say that I am surprised that this formed. Anyways, she is forest to become a hurricane. Not sure if that is good or bad, considering her proximity to the Azores. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 17:16, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Ophelia is now up to 45/1005. The winds are likely higher than this, though. TG 2017 21:34, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Ophelia could become another hurricane, our 10th in a row. Thankfully, it's out to sea! I hope it pulls off a Lee! :) However, it could cause some impacts in the Azores in the long run. This is like an October Alex/Nadine. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:39, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Opheilia is probably going to stay well south of the Azores, and if she somehow manages to reach the islands, she won't be stronger than a cat 1. There's no way Ophelia will be retired based on this track, but Ophelia could become a minimal hurricane before she dissipates in about a week, so our hurricane streak could certainly go on. Ryan1000 23:13, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Minimal hurricane is what the NHC predicts.12.144.5.2 23:36, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...
Oh good. Looks like it may be a Cat 1 hurricane at most. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:50, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

According to the latest model runs, Ophelia may unfortunately impact Spain, France, and the United Kingdom as a weakening hurricane or extratropical storm sometime next week. If this scenario continues to appear as it has in the ECMWF for the past couple of days now, asking for a major may no longer be a good idea. Unless it's a small cyclone like Lee, then it'll weaken quicker once it runs into shear over the weekend. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:05, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

It does mean that it continues the trend of Ophelia's hitting Europe. 2005, 2011 and likely this one too. Kiewii 12:40, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
Now up to 60/1001 mb. Fred (talk) 20:45, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
Both of the global models predict a northward turn with Ophelia before she reaches the Iberian Peninsula in either Spain or Portugal, and then either hitting northwestern France or the southern part of Britan. She'll probably be a non-tropical hurricane by that time, but still, this could be something to watch out for in western Europe down the road. Ryan1000 23:46, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
Intensity down to 50 mph/1002 mb. But still, forecasted to be a hurricane on Thursday. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 65 mph/996 mbars. The latest run of the GFS actually does take this far enough north to potentially make a landfall on the southeastern Azores, which is something worth noting because Sao Miguel Island, the second-southeasternmost island in the Azores, is home to more than half the population of the archapelago. Ophelia is probably only going to be a 75-80 mph cat 1 when she passes over the islands, or just to the south of them, but this might not be a complete fish if she takes this path. Ryan1000 12:41, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Almost a hurricane. 70 mph, 992 mbars. Looks like a hurricane on satellite though; it has an eye now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Here comes the Atlantic's 10th hurricane in a row... tying the all-time record from the 19th century. Even the NHC says that it looks like a hurricane. It could be one by the next advisory or two. The southeastern Azores need to watch out, and so should Ireland in the very long run (it is forecast to go there as an extratropical system). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 16:42, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane OpheliaEdit

Ladies and gentlemen, we have it, a new one for the record books. 10 in a row. 75 mph, 990 mbars. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:46, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Yay! Our 10th in a row... Maybe we can even get a record-breaking 11th in a row if "Philippe" is also a hurricane. This ties some years in the 19th century (1878, 1886, 1893) for the most hurricanes in a row ever recorded. But since that was before the advent of satellite, it's very possible that tropical storms could have gone unnoticed in those years. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:25, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
Yay, the 10th consecutive hurricane in Atlantic is here! Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:53, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
The NHC track has shifted a bit closer towards Sao Miguel and Santa Maria islands in the southeastern Azores. The former island, as I mentioned before, has more than half the population of the Azores, roughly 137,000 people, but Santa Maria has only around 5,500. Still, those two islands are potentially in Ophelia's path, so they should watch out for possible impacts. Hopefully effects won't be too serious, like how Alex of last year was only minor at most for the islands due to his (and Ophelia's) minimal category 1 intensity. Ryan1000 02:13, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 85 mph and 986 mbars, forecast to hit 90 mph soon. Ryan1000 09:59, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
Now at 90 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 15:58, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
I bet that this will become a C2, even though the NHC isn't forecasting anything beyond its current windspeed. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:20, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

And, my bet came true. 100 mph/973 mbars ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:48, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

I didn't expect this. Now a Cat 2, Ophelia will unfortunately not be a major. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:34, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
105 mph/970mb(28.65in) and forecast to stay 105mph for 12 hours,at the 11PM advisory.Forecast track hits Ireland & Scotlant between extra-tropical transition and dissipation.12.144.5.2 05:40, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

Winds downgraded to 100 mph, pressure upped to 971. LollipopWut TALK CONTRIB  ??:??, ??/??/????  15:33, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

Ophelia's still forecast to narrowly miss the southernmost Azores islands as she heads east-northeast, but given Ophelia's small size, even a slight miss could mean almost negligible impacts for the islands. I'm honestly more worried about what Ireland and the UK could experience from this down the road when this thing turns extratropical. Hopefully it won't be too serious. Ryan1000 23:59, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
Agreed. The UK and Ireland could witness sizeable impacts from post-tropical Ophelia. It's expected to directly punch Ireland as still a hurricane-strength system before weakening to TS intensity as it crosses Scotland. Hopefully it's not going to be too bad over there. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:13, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
I'm on the east coast of Scotland, so the winds shouldn't be too bad this side. Ophelia is looking much better this morning, with ADT estimates right up to 105-115 kts. I doubt it is that strong, but certainly wouldn't rule out it becoming a major before wind shear gets the better of it later. Kiewii 11:20, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
If this ATCF info is right, then we have another major on our hands. AL, 17, 2017101412, , BEST, 0, 342N, 277W, 100, 960, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 80, 70, 60, 1011, 150, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
--182.58.63.95 13:33, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane OpheliaEdit

Its official. 100 kt/960 mbar. 182.58.63.95 14:44, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Oh wow, this is amazing! It beat Frances’s record for being the farthest east MH ever recorded! Fred (talk) 15:51, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
This season...I swear. I never would have expected six majors this year (and I doubt I'm alone considering how this season started), but even moreso...a major hurricane? Here? I was stunned when I saw this. Jake52 (talk) 15:12, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
Wow. Owen 15:14, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
One word for this season: shook. Congratulations to Ophelia for becoming a major south of the Azores. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:16, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
Congrats to Ophelia for becoming a rare major and being the easternmost major hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:22, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

This season just keeps getting even more weird. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 16:21, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Yep, this was not expected. Ophelia just surprised us all. I never expected it to do this stunt! 6 majors...wow ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:50, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
How powerful she is when she gets to Ireland is conjecture so she could be the strongest (recorded) storm of this nature to landfall. In terms of wind speeds, Atlantic storms are often "faster" and last a lot longer but it's very different set up. I'm in awe at what this storm is doing where it's doing it. If I'm not mistaken it appears to have doubled in size since yesterday evening. Retirement candidate #5 - here she comes. Owen 19:17, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
I called for it! This is a European Lee!! Heard it's coming to the UK, Ireland and Norway from the media. I'm in Newcastle upon Tyne at the moment so I hope this won't be too bad! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 19:30, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
Post-Tropical impacts from Atlantic hurricanes in Europe usually don't lead to retirement, as the remnants of Charley in 1986 and Floyd in 1987 showed, though this could certainly bring potentially serious impacts to the British Isles regardless. On topic: I will say, I'm very, very impressed Ophelia managed to pull off major hurricane intensity this far northeast in the Atlantic, it's the easternmost such storm on record in the basin, but fortunately, due to her small size, Ophelia did not come close enough to the Azores to cause notable impacts to the islands. Had this thing formed and tracked about 100 miles farther north than where she is now, Ophelia could've hit Sao Miguel Island at this intensity and possibly been the worst hurricane to hit the Azores on record, but fortunately, that didn't happen. Still, with this unexpected intensity jump, this season doesn't dissapoint, we've now got 6 major hurricanes, just one short of tying the record of 7 set in 1961 and 2005, and 217 (and counting) ACE units, currently the 7th highest ACE on record in the Atlantic basin. Ryan1000 20:56, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
@Ryan: That may be but I'm not sure we've had a large storm like this one hitting Europe as an extratropical system, and extratropical systems can be retired for their impacts like Sandy (2012) or Igor (2010) so this most certainly could be retired depending on how it unfolds. I believe I saw a story suggesting models are predicting nearly 647 million euros in damage to Ireland from this system which is getting close to 750 million USD. Also European windstorms can be very damaging and deadly so there is certainly a chance for this system to become the first system to be retired due to impacts on Europe but is isn't a guarantee of course. --Whiplash (talk) 21:13, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
I would hope it's not bad, and retired if it is, but it's not a guarantee. The remnants of Hurricane Charley in 1986 caused a lot of damage in Ireland and Britan as well, though despite his post-tropical damage in Europe, Charley wasn't retired after that and stayed until 2004. Also, ex-Floyd of 1987 contributed to the formation of and evolved into the great england storm of 1987 when it struck on October 15 of that year (tomorrow is the 30th anniversary of that event; Dr. Masters mentioned that in his latest blog post), and that storm was supposedly the worst to hit the U.K. in more than 1,000 years, yet Floyd stayed on the list until 1999. Also, Igor was still a tropical hurricane when he impacted Newfoundland in September 2010, though he was hundreds of miles wide and moved surprisingly slow for a hurricane in that part of the Atlantic when he struck Newfoundland, which led to his high damage there, and Sandy was one of the costliest storms to hit the U.S. on record, let alone that she caused 2 billion in damage to eastern Cuba beforehand, so there was no way Sandy was staying, tropical or not. Ophelia could be a bad storm for Ireland and the northwestern U.K, but there have been destructive non-tropical ex-Atlantic storms before that hit the region that didn't get retired. But regardless if Ophelia gets axed or not for impacts there, this is certainly a storm to watch out for over the next few days in the British Isles. Ryan1000 21:26, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Ophelia (2nd time)Edit

105 mph, 964 mbars. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:03, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Forecast to hit Ireland as a non-tropical category 1 storm sometime tomorrow morning. Hopefully impacts there and in the northern UK aren't too bad from this. Ryan1000 09:31, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
I hope UK is okay. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:20, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Down to 90 mph. Expected to be post-tropical tonight. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

It'll be Post-Tropical, but it will be a strong one and will produce winds up to hurricane-status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:11, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
Ophelia is starting to look non-tropical already, and it looks like Ireland will get the first hit before Ophelia races into the UK, while maintaining hurricane-force winds. Ryan1000 20:26, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
85 mph at 5 PM advisory,now expected to dissipate near the western coast of Norway after going over Ireland and Scotland as a post-tropical cyclone.12.144.5.2 21:08, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone OpheliaEdit

Now post-tropical, but the U.K. and Ireland will receive plenty of impacts as the cyclone remains quite powerful. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:16, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

This just made landfall near Dingle, Ireland, and impacts are worse than expected in Southern Ireland. This is not looking good at all. TG 2017 11:55, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
One fatality now confirmed in Waterford. Tree fell down on a car, the woman driving the car was sadly killed. RIP. Anyway, this is turning out to be a bad storm. Hopefully the death toll stays at 1, but this tempest ain't done yet with Ireland. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:16, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
How are the impacts "worse than expected"? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 13:04, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
Initially, the storm's main impact was to hit Central Ireland, but Ophelia ended up tracking further to the west, causing the worst impacts to hit Southern Ireland by surprise. That's why it is "worse than expected". TG 2017 14:05, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
The death toll is rising very quickly. It's now up at three. Hopefully, it stays there, but that's too low for a storm like this. TG 2017 15:51, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
Oh god, make that 38 deaths. TG 2017 18:05, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Most of the deaths came from Portugal & Spain; these deaths are indirect, as they are due to the wildfires that were exacerbated by Ophelia's outer bands. From Ophelia alone, 3 fatalities have occurred — all in Ireland — but with all the pictures and videos I have seen so far, I think this is one of Ireland's worst storms. We really might have retirement candidate #5 here (or #4, if Nate does not get the boot). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:25, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Nate is very likely to get the boot due to impacts in Central America and Isaac-like damages in the U.S. The impacts in Central America were similar to Otto (which was retired) and it was more deadly so I would be surprised if Nate is snubbed. Back to Ophelia, I wouldn't be so sure on it being a major retirement candidate yet. The 3 deaths are saddening, and it could have been pretty damaging, but I still doubt that's enough for Ireland and the U.K. to request retirement. They can get severe windstorms like this almost every season. The wildfires are not an exact part of Ophelia, but the storm did pretty much cause the fires. There could be a small chance of Spain or Portugal requesting retirement, but I wouldn't bet on it for now since the fires are not an exact part of the storm but only contributed to it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:49, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
To those who are saying Ophelia will probably not be retired: Ophelia has caused $2 billion (2017 USD) in damages in the British Isles. That's just the low-end estimate. TG 2017 01:01, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
Damage totals on the Wikipedia article say >$1.18 billion. Apparently it became the worst storm there since the Great Storm of 1987. I'd say it has a pretty decent chance of retirement. We could very well tie the record for most retirements with 2005, since Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, and this storm all are either likely or certain retirement candidates. BTW, Ophelia's extratropical system has dissipated over Scandinavia. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:30, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVESTEdit

AOI: East of the LessersEdit

0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:28, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

Oh, you beat me to it. I think this will become Philippe but I'm afraid it will be another destructive hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:34, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
If this develops it won't be until it moves to the northwest and ends up south of Bermuda, and then it'll likely turn north and then east and out to sea. It's not likely this will be anything too serious for Bermuda down the road, and it's unlikely it'll be a threat to any other land areas either. However, we still have a month and a half of hurricane season left, and we can't rule out the NW Caribbean from producing a bad storm down the road before the season ends...fingers crossed we don't see one. Ryan1000 02:05, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
For perspective,at this time in 2005,we were up to the "V" storm.12.144.5.2 05:41, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
10/30 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:26, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVESTEdit

Now invested. Fred (talk) 18:20, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

Still at 10/30, and we could see Philippe once it moves into more favorable conditions early next week. I hope it doesn't threaten any land in the long term... (like Bermuda) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:15, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
10/40 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 10:31, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
Now up to 20/50. Fred (talk) 07:03, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
30/50. I think this would be at most Philippe. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:22, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 30/40. Fred (talk) 23:52, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
Unfortunately I do not think this will become Philippe anymore. It's in strong upper-level winds and expected to merge with a front in a couple days or so. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:18, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 40/40. Fred (talk) 05:51, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

I'd still be quite surprised if this manages to become Philippe. It's only got a maximum of two days to get its act together before merging with the front. Even then, conditions are not particularly conducive. If it does suddenly develop, I want a TD at most because I'm really hoping "Philippe" is used for the record-breaking 11th hurricane in a row, as I would like to see this record being broken. If the streak counts depressions, than I don't want this to develop at all. 92L will not be a hurricane, that's for sure. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:55, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

30/30. Philippe will have to wait. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:02, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
20/20 and the 2 AM TWO says it's forecast to merge with a cold front within a day.12.144.5.2 07:16, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

This won't develop — well, maybe as an extratropical system, but as a tropical one? I don't think so. The Atlantic will stay quiet for a while now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:12, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

It's gone now 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 13:26, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements.

  • Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
  • Bret - 2% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
  • Cindy - 15% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes, but overshadowed by Harvey.
  • Don - 10% - May have a slight chance of being retired for political reasons, but I wouldn't count on it, so I will keep my estimate conservative.
  • Emily - 0.01% - Very minor impact.
  • Franklin - 5% - Damage total unknown, but probably minor and caused no deaths.
  • Gert - 1% - Caused two deaths due to rip currents, but that is it.
  • Harvey - 100% - Record flooding in Texas, an obvious retirement candidate.
  • Irma - 100% - Another obvious retirement candidate due to damage in the Caribbean.
  • Katia - 8% - Probably caused similar damage to Franklin, but caused two deaths.
  • Jose - 2% - Only minor damage in the Caribbean and East Coast.
  • Lee - 0% - Regenerated and currently active, but still not expected to affect land.
  • Maria - 100% - Caused major damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico.

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:02, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's RetirementsEdit

I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

  • Arlene: 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
  • Bret: 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
  • Cindy: 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS. TG 2017 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
  • Don: 25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. TG 2017 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
  • Emily: 0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. TG 2017 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
  • Franklin: 0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
  • Gert: 5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Harvey: 100% - I really have no words about how bad this storm was. Harvey jumped off a cliff, and could bring Irma with him. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
  • Irma: 100% - After wiping out Barbuda and St. Martin, Irma is most likely going to go after this year. TG 2017 19:47, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
  • Jose: 0.01% - Almost hit the Northern Leeward Islands. That would have been a mess.
  • Katia: 1% - Struck Mexico at the same time as a strong earthquake. This gives Katia a slightly higher chance than Franklin.
  • Lee: 0% - Lee redeemed himself. But because he was a fish, he's coming back in 2023.
  • Maria: 100% - Not a chance she will stay for 2023. TG 2017 23:54, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Nate: 95% - It was not as bad in the US as what happened in Costa Rica. Nate was worse than Otto in Costa Rica. TG 2017 12:10, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
  • Ophelia: 85% - If Ophelia had happened last year, this storm would've had less of a chance to be retired, since its name would have not been retained for the windstorm when it hit Ireland. However, because this storm retained its name when it hit Ireland, they could request the name Ophelia to be retired. It is very likely they could because an estimated $1.8 billion in damages has been done from Ophelia, making Ophelia as costly as the Great Storm of 1987. Ophelia has a 15% chance of staying due to the storm not being damaging enough, which is very unlikely when this storm was being compared to the worst windstorms that have hit the British Isles. My best bet is that Ophelia will not be on the lists after this season.
  • Retired (80-100%): Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, Ophelia
  • Possibly Retired (50-79%): None
  • Notable mentions (20-49%): Cindy, Don
  • Final retirements: TBA
  • Replacements: Hank, Ivy, Minerva, Noah, Olive

TG 2017 15:56, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements from SteveEdit

Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.

  • Retirements, etc.: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms.
  • In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
  • Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Possibly Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
  • How Far Can This Season Go?: Lists the names of every potential storm that could form from here on out and the chances that they may form by the end of the season.
  • Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly.

  • Arlene: ~0%, B+ - It was fantastic for forming in April, but being only a moderate TS means it can't receive higher than a B+.
  • Bret: 1%, F - Existed in an unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect). The location gives Bret a tiny retirement chance and improves the grade a bit.
  • Cindy: 10%, D - The region it struck has been through much worse, and it has been very overshadowed by Harvey.
  • Don: 20%, Z - Failed to redeem itself after 2011, but 50 mph is enough to prevent it from getting my worst grade. The 20% is for the unlikely chance that just because Donald Trump is president, it could get the "Adolph, Israel, and Isis" treatment.
  • Emily: 0.1%, D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
  • Franklin: 7.5%, C+ - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Damage totals are unknown and there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Damage could have been a bit extensive, however.
  • Gert: 0.1%, B+ - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. 2 saddening indirect deaths from rip currents is nowhere near enough for the name to be considered for retirement.
  • Harvey: ~100%, B- - This will be retired. One of the costliest storms in U.S. history according to preliminary totals, and 77 deaths. The NHC has to be on drugs to not retire this. (There is an explanation for why Harvey's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
  • Irma: ~100%, B - A catastrophic beast that raged through the Caribbean, causing a trail of devastation along the way. Florida was impacted as well, as it was very destructive there. This was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. There is no logical reason why this won't be retired. (There is an explanation for why Irma's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
  • Jose: 1%, A+ - It was very long-lasting and briefly threatened the Lesser Antilles. A total of 70 advisories were issued (the most since Nadine '12), and it almost became a C5 at one point. One indirect death occurred due to rip currents off of New Jersey. Overall, Jose caused only minimal damage.
  • Katia: 10%, B- - 2 deaths give this a higher retirement chance than Franklin. Doesn't appear that there was much damage though.
  • Lee: ~0%, A++ - An amazing storm that began as a weak TS. After its initial dissipation, we all wrote this off as a pathetic fail. Well, guess what: It later regenerates and rapidly intensifies to an epic winning C3! And this was all done while out to sea. The Atlantic win of the year! Lee was also a tiny hurricane and rapid intensification could have been kinda expected due to its size, which is why it did not get "A+++(x∞)". If it reached C4 strength or higher, it would have received that grade for sure.
  • Maria: ~100%, B - Completely devastated Dominica after becoming the first C5 on record to make landfall there. Puerto Rico was also sent into a humanitarian crisis after Maria made landfall there as a powerful and dangerous C4. Other islands around the region were severely impacted as well. North Carolina was briefly threatened in Maria's later life, with rip currents all along the east coast. This b**** will not be returning in 2023. (There is an explanation for why Maria's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
  • Nate: 80%, C- - The Gulf Coast kind of dodged a bullet here, but it still caused Isaac '12-like damages. Had it not moved into Central America, it would've been another dangerous monster. The retirement chance is high because Central America has suffered 43 deaths from Nate. That's a higher death toll than Otto last year, which was retired. Its damage is also similar to Otto in Costa Rica. But there's also a slight chance that it will stay because it was not nearly as powerful as Otto when it struck, and it has been overshadowed by the big three monsters this season.
  • Ophelia: Still TBA, A++ - Became the easternmost major hurricane on record! It was mainly a fishspinner while tropical, but post-tropical impacts in the U.K. are yet to be seen. A retirement chance will be released once it passes through the U.K. and dissipates.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.


Retirement percentage colors: 0%, ~0%, 0.00001%, 0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99999%, ~100%, 100%

The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.


Intensity colors: TS (40-45 mph), TS (50-60 mph), TS (65-70 mph), C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), C5 (≥185 mph)


Grading colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, Z, Z-(x∞)

Certainly Retired: Harvey, Irma, Maria
Likely Retired: Nate
Possibly Retired: None
Probably Not Retired: Cindy, Don, Franklin, Katia
Not Retired: Arlene, Bret, Emily, Gert, Jose, Lee
To Be Announced: Ophelia


Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):

  • No storms are currently active

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-85%
  • "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
  • "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
  • "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Possibly Retired, Likely Retired, and Certainly Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Harvey (Certainly Retired):

  • Henley
  • Harper
  • Harris(on)
  • Hyacinth
  • Harold
  • Herbert
  • Hampton
  • Harley
  • Hyde
  • Hilton

Irma (Certainly Retired):

  • Ivy
  • Ina
  • Izzy
  • Imogen
  • Indira
  • Isla
  • Ilse
  • Irina
  • Inga
  • Isa

Maria (Certainly Retired):

  • Maggie
  • Martha
  • Minerva
  • Morgan
  • Molly
  • Melanie
  • Madison
  • Meg(h)an
  • Matilda
  • Monica

Nate (Likely Retired):

  • Noah
  • Norris
  • Nolan
  • Nick
  • Neil
  • Nelson
  • Nico
  • Nigel
  • Norton
  • Niles

  • Chances that Philippe will be used: 90% - Knowing how this season has gone, I would be shocked if the season ended very early with the dissipation of Ophelia.
  • Chances that Rina will be used: 70% - It's likely that at least 2 more named storms will form from here on out.
  • Chances that Sean will be used: 50% - A tossup. The season is supposed to quiet down from here on out. If Sean does come, it will most likely be a November storm or post-season surprise.
  • Chances that Tammy will be used: 30% - I wouldn't bet on getting this far down the naming list.
  • Chances that Vince will be used: 10% - The end of the season would have to be unusually active. Highly unlikely.
  • Chances that Whitney will be used: 2.5% - A miracle would have to happen for the naming list to be exhausted. The Atlantic would have to pull off 2005 late-activity.
  • Chances that Alpha will be used: 0.1% - We almost certainly won't see the Greeks being used this year. Late-season would have to be INSANELY hyperactive for there to be a chance of reaching this name.
  • Chances that Beta will be used: 0.00001% - Are you kidding me?
  • Chances that Gamma or anything beyond will be used: ~0% - I would bet on winning the lottery over the Atlantic getting this far down.

  • The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
  • This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
  • The colors for the 40-45 mph TS and the ≥185 mph C5 are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "65-70 mph TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac.
  • A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
  • Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
  • EXPLAINS HARVEY, IRMA, AND MARIA: Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

I see you changed almost everything on your retirements. I'd say, this is better than before. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
Oh, thanks! I changed my predictions to be more in-depth and realistic. Of course, new intensity colors were added and "F-" is now "Z". ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:03, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
A little odd that the very things that earn 100% get marked down in the letter grades.12.144.5.2 14:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)
I did it for a reason. Storms that kill people and are very devastating don't deserve the highest grades. For example: if I gave Irma my highest possible grade or even anything close to it, it might seem insensitive to victims of Irma, for anyone who had friends/family affected, etc. It just seems wrong to give storms like Irma their highest possible grade, because in my opinion, it feels similar to cheering on a storm that is about to devastate a city. So for the top costliest hurricanes on record or for the top deadliest, a maximum of a 2-letter reduction is necessary. Harvey and Irma both got the maximum reduction due to their extreme damages. And to clarify, "2-letter" reductions don't apply to storms that would otherwise get at least A++. The distance between A++ and B- is the same as A+ to C+, A to C, etc. So what appears to be less than a 2 letter drop is actually the same amount of reduction. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:50, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
So what is the point of the grade?...killing people is a reason storms get retired.12.144.5.2 06:21, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, I know that. I grade every named storm that forms, even the destructive ones. Grades and retirement chances have absolutely no association, in fact the opposite. The lower the retirement chance, the higher the grade will be unless it is a failure TS. Weak TS's almost always get a very low grade because they have not performed well at all (but exceptions could be made if they formed at a very unusual time or location, or surprised forecasters). Grades are meant to be for how well a storm performed, taking into account how well it defied forecasts (or didn't), or how strong it became (or lack of strength). They also take into account unusual locations, unusual time of year and longevity. Destruction and deaths factors in just because the devastating ones are monsters that strike fear into everyone, are infamous and hateful. The point is that every storm deserves a grade, but I can't give the really devastating ones the highest grades due to how insensitive it could appear to victims and those who had friends/family affected. These devastating storms are universally hated as well - who would give such a vengeful monster an A++? The highest grade that the most devastating storms ever (like Katrina, Harvey, Irma, Sandy, or Haiyan) could receive is "B". That is probably one the highest grades possible that doesn't appear insensitive. On the other hand, Genevieve '14 would receive "A+++(x∞)" for being a great fighter, lasting so long, intensifying to a C5 much to everybody's surprise and not harming anyone. I hope you understand what I mean in my comments above, because I don't want to argue about this anymore. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:27, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
Steve, if you'd like, you could make a separate tab for your personal grade of each storm and another tab solely for their chances of being retired, since you don't correlate the two. Ryan1000 19:44, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
Nah, I'm fine with keeping it the way it is. I don't want to have too many tabs. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:05, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

68's Prediction of RetirementsEdit

Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA, Fail%)

(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5


(Grading colors: S, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) Note: The grading will come after the season ends.

50% or more=italics

Storm Name Chance of Retirement Comments Replacement Names (if it's a retirement candidate)
Arlene 0% Wow, an early season surprise in April (which is rare). I give credit to Arlene for being used for eleven tropical cyclones (including this one), which makes it the most frequently used name in the Atlantic. But since it didn't impact any land, it has no chance to be retired. See you in 2023! -
Bret 1% An unusual storm that struck Venezuela and Trinidad. It was the first storm to strike Venezuela since a storm in 1993 by the same name. It caused about $3 million of damages and 2 deaths but it's most likely that it will be on 2023. -
Cindy 15% This storm made landfall in Louisiana; it caused a total of 3 deaths, caused flooding in southern Louisiana, and spawned tornadoes. It was one of the most wettest tropical cyclones in Mississippi (ranked 10th) Damages are unknown, but will be released later on. -
Don 5% He tried to redeem himself after 2011 but couldn't. A 50 mph failure in the Atlantic (I think). It caused no deaths or damages as of now. It may be retired due to political reasons (like the Adolph, Isis, Israel retirement) of the president of the U.S. (Donald Trump). Update: lowered chances to 5% since I doubt it would be retired. Dylan
Emily 0.1% It defined the forecast unexpectedly by becoming a TS. It caused about $96,000 of damages from the EF0 tornado that Emily spawned and so far, no deaths. It is not guaranteed to be retired though. -
Franklin 2.5% I think the damage is minimal although damage totals are not out yet but thankfully, it caused no deaths at all. It made landfall in Veracruz as a Category 1 hurricane. Veracruz could see much worse than Earl (but not Karl). -
Gert 1% A forecast definer that somehow killed two people due to rip currents. Gert defined the forecast by instead go to a Category 2 (instead going to Cat. 1). -
Harvey

100%

Now this is definitely going, no doubt. First started off with a weak TS and then reformed and RI'd right into a Category 4. It made landfall on that intensity. This was getting really, really bad for Texas. Even Houston has seen worse (Houston, we have a problem). It's currently on Louisiana. Damages as of now are more than $70 billion making it the third costliest hurricane in the Atlantic. The damage estimates, if they were true, are $160 190 billion. It caused 66 deaths as of now. The extreme flooding occurred in Texas. It dropped 51.88 inches in Highland, Texas making it the wettest tropical cyclone in the US. This may rival Katrina, the costliest hurricane ever. He won't back for 2023. No wonder why everyone including me gave this one an 100%. Hayden, Harry, Hank
Irma 100% Sigh, it's Harvey's sister. l think this is definitely going, no doubt due to the impacts to Florida and the 95% destruction on Barbuda and Saint Martin. The Caribbean has had enough of the monstrous hurricane. It hit Cuba as a Category 5, one of the two that made landfall in this intensity. The other one is the 1932 Cuba hurricane. It hit Florida causing further destruction. Damages are at more than $30 billion and 55 deaths. The "I" curse continues... I have no words to say but Irma is a catastrophic hurricane. She's already done and she's gone. She won't be back for 2023. Again, no wonder why everyone including me gave this one an 100%. Isa, Ivy, Iara
Jose 0.01% Wow, a really long lasting hurricane that almost made it to a Cat 5 (Maybe it will in the post-analysis). Brought rip currents to New England and little impacts way back when it's in the beginnings. Damage is minimal. -
Katia 5% Coincidentally made landfall in Mexico that was impacted by an 8.1 magnitude earthquake a day earlier. 2 deaths isn't enough to be retired, though. -
Lee​​ 0% Was a failure at first before it dissipated. It regenerated and redeemed itself by becoming a major hurricane. I'm speechless. Leeboy is happy right now, isn't it. A fish so it will definitely not be going. -
Maria 100% A devastating hurricane. This was another big threat to the Caribbean. You know what, this is definitely going, no doubt. It destroyed Dominica with mighty force and it stuck Puerto Rico as hard as it can. It knocked out all the power in Puerto Rico. It also suffered human crisis in that country too. Damage total are at >$91 billion and caused at least 78 deaths. This is the second costliest hurricane in the world only behind Katrina. You know, I had enough destruction for that year. And again, no wonder why everyone including me gave this one an 100%. Melanie, Molly, McKenzie
Nate 90% Nicaragua and Honduras were devastated by this storm. But it doesn't look too bad when it made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Except that Biloxi has been devastated. It caused 38 deaths in Central America alone. Luckily, no deaths have occurred in the US. Moving fast before its landfall, this was a little bit of a disaster to Louisiana and other states. It caused >$2.685 billion of damages. That's more than Isaac. If this wasn't retired, I would faint. Noah, Nigel, Nelson
Ophelia TBA Currently active. This set the record for the easternmost major hurricane in the Atlantic. We'll see what happens to Ireland and U.K. if it impacts them. They will receive some impacts from this storm. -

Chance of being used:

Name that's unused Chance of being used Comments
Philippe 95% I would be ashamed if he won't be used.
Rina 85% I'm hoping to get to the R name.
Sean 45% Chance are decreasing as you go further down. I feel less confident on that name.
Tammy 30% I feel even less confident. I won't be surprised that it will surpass the S name.
Vince 10% I doubt it's going to get to the V name.
Whitney 1% I really, really doubt that it will reach the W name. Unless we get a surprise.
The Greek alphabet 0% There's no way that it will be used.

Retirement Summary

Definitely Retired (>95%): Harvey, Irma, Maria

Most Likely Retired (70-90%): Nate

Likely Retired (45-65%): None

Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None

Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Cindy, Don, Katia

Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Arlene, Bret, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Lee

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated: 68.106.0.77 16:17, October 15, 2017 (UTC))

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

  • UPDATE: Obviously Harvey's going. Irma looks likely to be retired as well. We'll see what happens. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:40, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0Edit

  • Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
  • Cindy - 5% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
  • Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
  • Emily - 0.5% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere, though there was some minor impacts in Florida. You'll be back in 2023, Emily.
  • Franklin - 7% - Caused some damage, but Mexico has seen worse. In addition, there was not a single fatality from this storm, so I'm sure Franklin won't be retired.
  • Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest Gert will return in 2023.
  • Harvey - 100% - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike. Never mind. This will surely go.
  • Irma - 100% - see Harvey. The damage in Florida and the Leeward Islands is more than enough. It is certain that she won't be back in 2023.
  • Jose - 3% - While it became a threat and later on became the longest-lived storm since Nadine, it minimal impacts. There was one indirect fatality from Jose though, that's why it got 3% from me.
  • Katia - 10% - Franklin 2.0, but a bit worse because of 2 fatalities.
  • Lee - 0.1% - Fail-lee-cia at first, but regenerated and became a major hurricane in the open Atlantic. Lee was a small hurricane, and while it threatened the British Isles as an extratropical system, it had little to no impact/s. So, see you in 2023.
  • Maria - 100% - see Irma. This is Marie 2014's sinister sister in the Atlantic. Probably Dominica and Puerto Rico's worst hurricane. Maria may have also surpassed Harvey as this season's costliest storm.
  • Nate - 50% - The literal 50/50. Isaac-esque impacts in the U.S. ($2.5 billion) with lesser death toll (only 2), but Otto-like impacts in Costa Rica (11 deaths and $185 million damages). Nicaragua and other Central American countries also suffered from this storm: Nate has killed 45 in total, and I am afraid the death toll will still rise. While its impacts in Latin America could have made Nate an easy shoo-in for retirement, its U.S. impacts lowered his retirement chance; thus the chances are 50/50 for now.
  • Ophelia - 40% - Ireland impacts are bad: their worst since Debbie in 1961. However, Debbie was not retired (as a matter of fact, a similar name is on the list next year, but it's Debby instead of Debbie), so I guess Ophelia has a chance of not getting the boot.

Summary:

    • Will surely go - Harvey, Irma, Maria
    • Probably will go - Nate, Ophelia
    • Probably will stay - Katia
    • Most likely will stay - Cindy, Don, Franklin
    • Will definitely stay - everyone else.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:20, October 17, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement OpinionsEdit

  • Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
  • Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
  • Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
  • Don - 25% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists. (replacement picks: Dylan, Dominic, or Dane)
  • Emily - 0% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
  • Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
  • Gert - 0% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
  • Harvey - 100% - There is no doubt that what could be the costliest natural disaster in US history will be getting the boot. (replacement picks: Hunter, Harold, or Harry)
  • Irma - 100%  - I'm left with no words. Only word I'm left with that I can say is catastrophic. Irma's gotta go. (replacement picks: Ivy, Ilyssa,or Imogen)
  • Jose - 0% - He put on a show and likely will become a Cat 5 in post-analysis, but he didn't affect anywhere significantly - thankfully. 
  • Katia - 10% - More or less was a Franklin repeat and could've been much worse.
  • Lee - 0% - Almost failed us, and then came back to surprise us with another session of RI - in the middle of nowhere. 
  • Maria - 100% - Not a chance that Maria stays. 2017 will be the first season since 2008 to see more than two names removed from the naming list as well as the first since 2007 to feature multiple Cat 5's because of this monster.  (replacement picks: Megan, Molly, Malia)
  • Nate - 75% - Damage apparently is costing around $2.5 billion or more in the United States, which if verified is quite similar to Isaac 2012's total which we all know wasn't retired. However, official damage reports in Costa Rica say this was on the same level as Otto. After initially being conservative, I've increased Nate's odds further to be retirement #4. (replacement picks: Noah, Neil, Nolan)
  • Ophelia  - 60% - Apparently damage in the areas Ophelia has hit is estimated around $2.1 billion which is nothing to laugh at. Not only that, but 42 deaths could get her to be joining Harvey, Irma, Maria and potentially Nate in the spring. I'll adjust the chances with the influx of more information in the wake of Ophelia. (replacement picks: Odessa, Ora, Olwyn)

​RETIREMENTS PROJECTION AS OF OCTOBER 2017: In the spring of 2018, at the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization will retire the names Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia from the rotating naming lists due to the amount of damage and deaths they caused, and they will not be used again to name another Atlantic hurricane. This will tie the record five names retired following the 2005 season. They will be replaced with Hunter, Ivy, Megan, Noah, and Odessa for the 2023 season, respectively.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy100's Retirement predictionsEdit

My turn!

  • Arlene- 0%: Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.
  • Bret- 1%: Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.
  • Cindy- 20%: Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.
  • Don- 3%: Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons. Update: Lowered chances to 10%. I never did feel too confident with Don being retired in the first place, but due to the fact that after it dissipated it was forgotten almost immediately, and also due to the fact that Harvey and Irma have overshadowed it, I feel even less confident that Don will go. Also, Bill was used (and not retired) in 1997, and at the time Bill Clinton was president. Update again: 3% because I feel even less confident.
  • Emily- 1%: Minimal impacts.
  • Franklin- 2%: Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.
  • Gert- 1%: Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.
  • Harvey- 100%: Preliminary damage costs are around $70 billion, with estimates saying damage is potentially $190 billion!! We won't be seeing the name Harvey again, except in the history books of infamous hurricanes. Replacement picks: Hank or Harry
  • Irma- 100%: Gone, there's no logical way it's going to stay. Massive destruction in the Caribbean, and in Florida. Not as bad as Harvey, but still a terrible storm nonetheless. Irma, or "Irmageddon" as I like to call her, will not be back in 2023. Replacement picks: Ivy or Isa.
  • Jose- 5%: Caused some damage, but very minimal. Stuck around for a while though. We'll likely be seeing him again in 2023.
  • Katia- 10%: Thankfully, didn't do as much destruction as feared. Unfortunately caused two deaths, but that's not enough for retirement.
  • Lee- L0L%:Just one word: awesome. Lee was a jokester. Looked to be weak at first, and then regenerated AND became a Category 3. I'm very happy with Lee's performance. Best part is, he stayed away from land, so he gets a 0%. But due to the fact that he stayed away from land, and got that strong, he gets a gold star. Good hurricane.
  • Maria- 100%: Gone. Without a doubt. Can we get non-destructive storms now? Three hurricanes having 100% chances at retirement is more than enough. Update: Definitely gone, due to the damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico. Update: The situation in Puerto Rico keeps getting worse and worse. Also, I'm hearing some reports that damage costs are rivaling the costs of Harvey and Irma. Again, gone without a doubt. Replacement picks: Megan or Molly.
  • Nate- 85%: Damage in Central America is looking worse and worse, and I now think that we will likely have retirement #4 with Nate. Whether this chance goes up to 100 or not depends on what it does to the Gulf Coast. Can this season just end already? Update: Upped to 85% I’m still being slightly conservative, because there might still be a chance that Nate dodges retirement, but I feel like we’ll be tying 1955, 1995, and 2004 with the number of retirements. Replacement picks: Nigel, Nelson, Neil, or Noah (there's a lot of 'N' names to choose from.)
  • Ophelia- Currently active. Could hit the Azores, and we’ll see what it does there and in the UK.

Leeboy100Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictionsEdit

Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here?

  • Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
  • Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
  • Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
  • Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also highly doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the current U.S. president just so happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count Don as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
  • Emily - 1% - 96,000 USD in damage is low for a U.S. landfalling TS; couple that with no deaths, and Emily probably won't go.
  • Franklin - 5% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't too bad.
  • Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
  • Harvey - 100% - Texas Governor Greg Abbott said overall damages from Harvey are likely to be between 150 billion and 180 billion dollars, considering it took 120 billion to rebuild New Orlenas after Katrina. It's very possible that Harvey could be the costliest natural disaster in American history, and he will, without question, be retired after this year.
  • Irma - 100% - Harvey's big sister. The Caribbean islands of Barbuda, St. Martin, Anguilla, St. Barthelemy and some of the Virgin Islands were utterly annihilated by this category 5 monster; Irma caused upwards of 10 billion dollars in damage to those islands alone, making Irma the worst hurricane in terms of both intensity and damage totals to hit the northeastern Lesser Antilles on record. Couple that with a category 5 landfall and widespread damage across northern Cuba and upwards of 50 billion dollars in damage across southwestern Florida, and Irma is one of the top 5 costliest hurricanes of all time. And like Harvey, there is absolutely no chance Irma will be reused in 2023.
  • Jose - 4% - Jose caused somewhat extensive flooding and surge damage in parts of southeastern Massachusetts and killed 1 person, but he doesn't hold a candle to the historic impacts caused by his two predecesors or Maria, and he's probably coming back in 2023. With that being said, it looks like 2017 fell short on having 3 consecutive retirements.
  • Katia - 6% - Likely caused similar damage to Franklin, but since Katia killed two people in Mexico (while Franklin killed none), she gets an extra percent, though it's likely still not going.
  • Lee - 0% - Redeemed his initial fail by coming back and becoming a major hurricane, but Lee was still a fishspinner.
  • Maria - 100% - Devastating storm, and the costliest hurricane for the Caribbean on record, eclipsing Irma's 10 billion record set barely two weeks beforehand. Maria unexpectedly strengthened to a category 5 hurricane when she struck Dominica, becoming the most severe hurricane to hit the island on record, and later hit Puerto Rico as a strong category 4 storm, their worst hit since 1928. With potentially as much as 90 billion dollars in damage to Puerto Rico, and 1-2 billion more in Dominica, Maria could be one of the top 3 costliest hurricanes ever, so there's no way she won't be retired.
  • Nate - 85% - Damage in Costa Rica was a lot more than I expected it would be, up to 185 million, only slightly less than Otto of last year, and the death toll there stands at 11 with 2 missing. Nicaragua suffered more fatalities but I don't think they'll request him. 2.5 billion in damage to the U.S. isn't anything to sneeze at either, but it's not as much as it used to be (Isaac of 2012 didn't get the chop for 2.3 billion in damage), and like how Isaac was later overshadowed by Sandy, Nate was mostly overshadowed by the more than 170 billion dollars in damage the U.S. saw from Harvey, Irma, and Maria earlier this year. so I don't think America will axe him. Still, Costa Rica could definitely nomiNATE like they did to Otto last year, so it's got a better chance than one might think.
  • Ophelia - 35% - Caused upwards of 2 billion in damage to Ireland, and killed more than 30 people in Spain/Portugal as her outer winds fanned wildfires, but I don't recall any prior Atlantic storms being retired for impacts in Europe. I wouldn't expect it, if the remnants of past storms (like those in the Southwest US from EPac storms like Octave '83, Norbert '14, and Linda '15) didn't get retired, but I'll give her credit regardless.

Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Isaac's predictionsEdit

Here's mine:

  • Everyone else - 0%.
  • Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.
  • Irma - 100% - For damage in the Caribbean.
  • Maria - 100% - For damage to Dominica and Puerto Rico.

--Isaac829E-Mail 01:44, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Puffle's prediction partyEdit

sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)
(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)
ok credit to everyone who created le colors ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened

  • Arlene: no% - went in a circle and died. the end
  • Bret: 0.01% - is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
  • Cindy: 1% - literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
  • Don: fish% - fish
  • Emily: waitwhat% - stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
  • Franklin: 0.01% - ok
  • Gert: lame% - fish
  • Harvey: 100% - HOLY CRAP HARVEY. I PREDICTED THIS TWO YEARS AGO! (Also people are predicting that Harvey will cost more than Katrina.) Replacement idea: Hal
  • Irma: 100% - Irma killed my best friend Charles. However, the damage isn't looking too catastrophic in some places, but it will likely go, not just for the damage it's done in Florida, but for the damage it's done in the Leeward Islands, and Cuba as well. Replacement idea: Ivy
  • Jose: 5% - Went from threatening, to drunk in 2 days.
  • Katia: 1% - Hit Mexico but did no damage. Earthquake was way worse.
  • Lee: WHAT% - I'M SORRY LEE FOR UNDERESTIMATING YOU
  • Maria: 100% - too damn scary to talk about. Replacement idea: Macy
  • Nate: 50% - No landfall yet, but could do significant damage. Moving at 26 mph according to the 11AM advisory on Oct. 7th. 2fast4me. I put cat2 on here early because everyone knows it'll be a cat2 by the next advisory.
  • Ophelia: ???% - Ophelia has not formed yet.

PuffleTalkBlog 02:00, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Puffle, please give credit to me too because I created the scale colors. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:29, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
And the grades are unnecessary, since it doesn't appear that you are using them... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)----
kek done PuffleTalkBlog

KN2731's storm grades & retirementsEdit

Adding a color scale for the first time.

Grades: A, B, C, D, E, F. These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%.

  • Arlene – grade A, retirement 0%. Made April absolutely amazing.
  • Bret – grade D, retirement 15%. At least it tried to do something before being sheared to shreds in the graveyard.
  • Cindy – grade E, retirement 15%. Didn't look that tropical for most of its lifetime.
  • Don – grade E, retirement 5% due to the media association with Donald Trump. Otherwise this was pathetic; it gets an E for going above 35 knots.
  • Emily – grade D, retirement 10%. It tried, but wasn't particularly memorable.
  • Franklin – grade B, retirement 20% for damage. One of a common type of storm that crosses the Yucatan before rapidly developing in the BoC.
  • Gert – grade B, retirement 5% for the two deaths it caused. Really kept us waiting for a while, but eventually became a C2.
  • Harvey – grade A, retirement 100%. Powerful C4 that would have been great as a fish, but turned into a flooding nightmare for Texas and Louisiana. Really, did you have to give Houston 50 inches of rain?
  • PTC 10 – grade F (and a designation can't be retired). Was tipped to become Irma, but it busted.
  • Irma – grade A, retirement 100%. Well, what can I say. Ridiculously powerful storm, maintained high-C5 winds for an astonishingly long period of time, and looked fabulous on satellite imagery. Unfortunately, this wasn't a fishspinner. Goodbye.
  • Jose – grade A, retirement 10%. Long-lived, powerful storm that thankfully didn't worsen things too much for the Leeward Islands after Irma.
  • Katia – grade C, retirement 5%. Didn't look too bad for landfall as a C2. Grade is C because it scuppered its RI phase.
  • Lee – grade A, retirement 0%. Rose up from the dead to become a major fishspinner. Well done, Lee.
  • Maria – grade A for the intensity, retirement 100%. Nice sub-910 mb pressure and excellent satellite presentation, but you're definitely going after Dominica and Puerto Rico.
  • Nate – grade C, retirement 70%. Damage in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and the USA don't look too good, with floods in Costa Rica termed the worst in recent years. $2.5 billion in the USA may not warrant retirement there though (with reference to Isaac 2012).
  • Ophelia – currently active. May affect the Azores and Western Europe in the next 7 days.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 11:12, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

Jdcomix's predictionsEdit

  • Arlene - Grade A, 0% - Fish storm, but in April. Awesome storm.
  • Bret - Grade C, 5% - You tried. Only chance is if an island country requests this for retirement, which I doubt.
  • Cindy - Grade D, 5% - Near hurricane strength storm in June, so I'll give it some credit for that.
  • Don - Grade E, 10% - Only reason I give this a higher chance of retirement than the others so far is due to the name being the same as the current President, but even that's a stretch. Pathetic storm either way.
  • Emily - Grade D, 5% - Hit Florida with some minor impacts, nothing really to warrant retirement, though.
  • Franklin - Grade B, 10% - Giving this a low chance of retirement because there were surprisingly no deaths in Mexico, unlike Earl last year.
  • Gert - Grade B, 0% - Fish storm, but the first Cat 2 of the year and an at an unusually high latitude.
  • Harvey - Grade A-, 100% - Bye Felicia! Deducting points due to destruction. Replacement name hope: Hunter
  • PTC 10 - Grade F, 0% - Can't be retired, would have become Irma but busted.
  • Irma - Grade A+, 100% - Incredible storm, but knocked it down below an S rank because of the utter devastation caused all over the basin. Replacement name hope: Ivy
  • Jose, Grade S, 0% - Near category 5 that didn't cause any damage, just how I like it.
  • Katia -  Grade C, 5% - Not too much damage, but did kill 2 people.
  • Lee - Grade B+, 0%. Failicia at first, but regenerated and became the fifth (!) major hurricane of the season. Fish storm.
  • Maria - Grade A-, 100%. Do I need to explain what happened to Dominica and Puerto Rico? They're practically 100% destroyed. Deducting some points because of destruction. Replacement name hope: Marietta
  • Nate - Ongoing, 60%. This one will be interesting for the Gulf Coast. 60% chance right now because it's killed more people in Central America than Otto which was retired. Replacement name hope: Neville
  • 91L/Ophelia - Ongoing, 0%. Fish storm.

Jdcomix (talk) 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Dylan's predictionsEdit

  • Arlene: 0% - In terms of impacts, this was nothing more than April showers over the open Atlantic, but as only the second purely tropical Atlantic storm ever recorded in the month, this was a welcome surprise.
  • Bret: 5% - Cool to see something so far south so early in the season, but this storm was low on impact, and I'm having a hard time seeing how Bret won't be back in 2023.
  • Cindy: 10% - Standard-issue early-season Gulf Coast TS.
  • Don: 2% - Ryan said it best, though should Don get the boot for political reasons, I'll second the calls in #Replacement names for my name to take its place ;) (I must admit that I blushed a bit when I saw them — thanks, fellas!)
  • Emily: 2% - Surprise formation, meager effects.
  • Franklin: 10% - That death toll (or lack thereof) is a very pleasant surprise. This gets as high as 10% from me because I don't buy the idea of a hurricane of any strength hitting Mexico without dealing some extent of damage.
  • Gert: 1% - For the rip current fatalities. Cool storm to watch, otherwise.
  • Harvey: 100% - There's no logical way it won't happen.
  • Irma: 100% - See Harvey.
  • Jose: 6% - Relieved that not only was Jose far kinder to the Lessers than was initially feared he would be, but he wasn't that bad for the U.S. East Coast either.
  • Katia: 11% - Though Katia unfortunately did not repeat the non-existent death toll of Franklin, she was otherwise scarcely different in terms of impacts.
  • Lee: 0% - Better luck in 2023, mate :/ Or in a few days, that too!
  • Maria: 100% - See Irma.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!Edit

  • Arlene: 0%, cool to watch her progress, especilly being all that far up north and the fact she was about in April, but see you in 2023!
  • Bret: 1%, Not sufficient/notable enough to warrant retirement.
  • Cindy: 5%, Ditto. Made landfall in the same place as Harv though. Forgettable storm.
  • Don: 2%, Ditto, but I don't see him going just because of all the Trump memes/media attention this storm got. SAD!
  • Emily: 2%, Ditto, just forgettable.
  • Frankie: 10%, Clumsy, caused a bit of damage but the good thing is that he was kind; no deaths! Just be careful next time, eh?
  • Gert: 5%, Knocked at my window when she arrived in Europe but apart from the surfing deaths, she wasn't that notable.
  • Harvey: 100%, THIS WILL BE GOING, NO DOUBT, UNLESS THE NHC IS ON A HIGH/ON DRUGS/DRUNK. 
  • Irma: 100%, DITTO! THIS MEGA-MONSTROUS STORM IS DOWN IN THE HISTORY BOOKS! THERE'S NO WAY THIS WOMAN IS COMING BACK! SAY HELLO TO IMOGEN 2023!
  • Jose: IDK%, too early to tell, but maybe Fabian/Nicole 2.
  • Kat: IDK%, too early to tell, but probably Frankie 2.

blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 16:31, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Whiplash's predictionsEdit

  • Harvey: 100% - Obviously.
  • Irma: 100% - Obviously.
  • Maria: 100% - Obviously.
  • Nate: 60% - I'm really not sure what to rate Nate typically historical tropical storms in this area have caused a lot of deaths without being retired (i.e. Matthew in 2010) however after having Otto retired last year primarily due to effects on Costa Rica I'm not sure whether Nate would get the boot or not and whether Otto was retired primarily because of his strength. I think it could go either way but I will stick on the side of not being retired as his impacts on the U.S. which would have made the storm a more likely candidate for retirement were not as bad as originally feared, also this storm very likely could be overshadowed by the big 3 monsters of the year. With a bit more perspective and now with US landfall and totals I think a retirement is slightly more likely than not but I still wouldn't say it is a guarantee.
  • Ophelia: 30% - Killed 3 people in Ireland and killed a fair few in what is being considered the worst storm to hit the country in almost 50 years. Ireland has never requested a retirement for a system so this could be a wildcard. Also contributed its winds to spreading wildfires in Spain and Portugal which killed more than 30 people. Has a shot, but a long one.
  • Katia: 5% - Simply because Mexico retired Ingrid in 2013 because she hit on the same day as Manuel even though she wasn't that noteworthy by Mexican storm standards and Katia happened to hit on the same day as a big earthquake which might cause her to get retired.
  • Everyone else: See you in 2023!

--Whiplash (talk) 04:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

TrueDashX (Fred)'s predictionsEdit

Note: Italicized names indicate active storm.

  • Name (Intensity: TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5) “Nickname” | Retirement% | My thoughts (Nickname explanation)


  • Arlene “Surprise” | 0% | Rare early-season fishspinning storm that beat Ana (2003)'s record for the strongest April storm, see you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: Very obvious, she was a rare April storm.)

  • Bret “Fast” | 0.5% | Beat another Ana (1979)'s record for the earliest system developed in the MDR. 0.5% chance is for 2 deaths and $3 million damages. But we'll most likely see you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: He moved very fast, and only lived for a day.)

  • Cindy “Ordinary” | 5% | 10th wettest storm in MS and later overshadowed by Harvey. I doubt that she's going to be retired, so see you in 2023! (Nickname explanation: While she’s the 10th wettest in the state of MS, it doesn’t make her stand out from other storms.)

  • Don “Random” | 0.5% | Bret v2 except that he's much weaker. Could be retired due to political reasons but I don't see that happening. (Nickname explanation: Came from nowhere and died before landfall.)

  • Emily “Wut” | 0% | She's just a fail, and she's been a fail since 2011. (Nickname explanation: Surprise storm that popped up from nowhere.)

  • Franklin “First” | 5% | First hurricane of the season and the first Franklin that became a hurricane. Thankfully there's no deaths reported in Mexico, but the pictures of the aftermath seems bad, but not as bad as what the big 3 did this year. (Nickname explanation: First hurricane of the season and the first Franklin that became a hurricane.)

  • Gert “Fish” | 0% | A storm with an ugly name that defied the forecast and stay as a fishspinner in her entire life. 2 indirect deaths was tragic but it will not convince anyone to retire the name. See you in 2023! (Nickname explanation: She’s a fishspinner, duh.)

  • Harvey “Floody” | 100% | He is one of the beasts to hit Texas (Along with Galveston 1900, Bret'99, and Ike'08) and will definitely be retired. Plus, Harvey is yet another old name so I wish that the WMO will replace him with some newer names. (Nickname explanation: Obviously, he drowned coastal Texas.)

  • Irma “Record-breaker” | 100% | She was destructive, totally rekt this year's typhoon season, which is known to be notoriously active and intense, but turned very sloppy this year. Still, I pray for all the victims that got affected by Irma, I know this is a extremely disastrous year, but we will rebuild and live on! (Nickname explanation: Just look at how many records that she broke.)

  • José “Longevity” | 0% | Powerful and long-lasting storm that stayed his entire life as a fishspinner, and I feel that this storm is somewhat similar to typhoon Noru, also happened this year: first, they're all long-lasting storms, second, they are both pretty intense, and finally, they both looped during their lifetime, but unfortunately, Noru eventually hit Japan. See you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: He’s long-lasting.)

  • Katia “Franklin II” | 10% | Another forecast-defier that became a cat. 2 although initially thought to be only a strong tropical storm. But she unexpectedly fell apart before landfall, eventually causing 2 deaths, but it could've been much worse. But I doubt that she'll go. (Nickname explanation: She’s track and intensity is somewhat similar to Franklin.)

  • Lee “Prankster” | 0% | An absolutely amazing forecast defier that became Harvey's fishspinning version. Initially thought to be a failure, but he never gave up. I personally think that NHC underestimated Lee's actual strength considering his impressive satellite appearance. (Nickname explanation: He tricked us dissipated as a weak TS first, but regenerated.)

  • María “Fickle” | 100% | She left me with no words. Explosively intensified into a monster cat. 5 from a tropical storm in a little more than a day (30 hours). She is definitely going after this season, and would remain infamous in the coming year due to the storm itself and the controversy surrounding the irresponsible action of Pres. Trump. What's weird is that before the season, I had a dream about Maria becoming the most intense storm of the season. Anyway, it's pretty sad to see a sweet name like Maria was being used on a destructive cyclone. (Nickname explanation: She rapidly intensified without any warning.)

  • Nate “Rushed” | 65% | He's probably going to be retired due to the death toll (45) and the damages (2.6 Billion). If he does, then we'll have 2 pairs of consecutive names retired this year: Harvey and Irma, Maria and Nate. It's sad to see another good name being retired. (Nickname explanation: Fastest moving hurricane in GoMex.)

  • Ophelia “Unique” | 30% | Always reminds me of The Lumineers' song. Unlike other storms, she preferred to go to Ireland and drink beer other than to go to FL to enjoy the beach. She's being a very impressive hurricane, not only that she continued the hurricane streak, she had also broke many records, a very Vince-ish storm! Unfortunately she had killed 42 as of now, so there’s a decent chance of retirement. (Nickname explanation: Aimed at Europe instead of other places.)

  • Philippe/91L | N/A | I wonder what will Philippe Papin say if this forms, and hope that he will continue the hurricane streak since he's forecasted to be a fishspinner.

  • Rina | N/A | It will most likely form, since the GFS model showed that we will possibly have 3 more storms (all are fishspinners) after Ophelia.

  • Sean | N/A | Same as above (Rina).

  • Tammy | N/A | She deserves another chance this year, after the fail in 2005.

  • Vince | N/A | It will be remarkable if this forms, because then the name will be used twice (previously in 2005), also the season will be insanely active.

  • Whitney | N/A | I will be extremely astonished if she forms.

  • Alpha & Beyond | N/A| If one of them ever form this season, it will left me with no words…

(P.S. I don’t know if anyone noticed, but the three most destructive hurricanes’ names are all related to conflict or battle:

Harvey means “battle worthy

Irma means “war goddess

and Maria means “Rebellious

So it seems like that hurricanes really lived up to their names this year.)

That’s all for now folks!

Fr3d (talk) 22:35, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Prism55's retirement predictionsEdit

Thought I'd do this prediction/retirement thing...

Retirement predictions:


  • Arlene - 0% - April storm, cool. Still, never touched land, so it will be back in 2023 (Note: In 2023, Arlene will be used for the twelfth time. It is the most frequently used storm name in the Atlantic.)
  • Bret - 0.01% - The only interesting thing about Bret was that he made landfall at a very low latitude. Otherwise, weak and boring storm.
  • Cindy - 5% - Caused minor damage but otherwise eh. Still, 2 deaths and some damage... small chance of being retired.
  • Don - bad% - no
  • Emily - 2% - Minor damage but not going. The real question is, why wasn't Emily retired after 2005?
  • Franklin - 5% - First hurricane of the season, very exciting. Still, caused only minor damage and no deaths. Franklin will return again in 2023.
  • Gert - 0.1% - Category 2, but never touched land. Gert is staying for 2023.
  • Harvey - 100% - Flooded and destroyed everything, definitely going - Possible replacement: Hadrian (eh)
  • Irma - 100% - Similar to Harvey, but more powerful and affected different places. Still, Irma is going. No way she stays. - Possible replacement: Ivy (I like this name)
  • Jose - 2% - Moved away from the Lesser Antilles in the last second. Good, very good. Killed one person, but most likely staying.
  • Katia - 10% - Franklin but with 3 deaths. Probably not retired.
  • Lee - good% - Lee was a prankster. First a weak tropical storm, worse that Don. Then, Lee regenerated and became a Category 3. Lee was definitely a pleasant surprise. Still, a fish, so it's coming back in 2023.
  • Maria - 100% - uUUUUUUHHHH another Category 5 and another Category 5 landfall. Possibly the second costliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Caused a crisis in Puerto Rico. Maria was a bad girl, and her name will be removed. - Possible replacement: Molly (This is a good name), Melanie (Don and Melanie so funny haha)
  • Nate - 65% - This caused surprisingly many deaths, and the damage in the US is lower than expected. Still, two and a half billion is a lot, and when we add the 45 deaths, this has a decent retirement chance. Could be overshadowed by the three worst hurricanes of the season though... - Possible replacement: Nick (england is my city)
  • Ophelia - 64% - Nate 2.0. Damage unknown, but already directly caused 3 deaths and indirectly caused 39 ones. Looks like a terrible storm for Europe... - Possible replacement: Odilia (2014's Pacific Odile, but female?...), Olympia (idk)
Formation predictions (IMO):


  • Philippe - 95% - I would be surprised if this didn't form.
  • Rina - 85% - Same as above.
  • Sean - 65% - Smaller chance, but still probable.
  • Tammy - 45% - Maybe...
  • Vince - 20% - Most likely not.
  • Whitney - 5% - I would be surprised if this formed.
  • Anything in Greek - 1% - 🤔🤔🤔
TLDR:


  • Definitely retired (>95%): Harvey, Irma, Maria
  • Most likely retired (60-94%): Nate, Ophelia
  • Possibly/possibly not retired (40-59%): None
  • Most likely not retired (5-39%): Cindy, Franklin, Katia
  • Definitely not retired (<5%): Arlene, Bret, Don, Emily, Gert, Jose, Lee

the end. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:35, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Replacement namesEdit

Potentially for DonEdit

Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:

  • Dylan
  • Diego
  • Damien
  • Drake
  • Derek
  • Dale
  • Dexter
  • Drew
  • Darren
  • Daryl

Post below which two names you like. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:
  • Dusty
  • Dominic
  • Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
  • Dante
  • Devan
Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

I doubt that this will receive that treatment. But if it does, why not Dylan? 😝 Other names in Ryan and Andrew's list are also quite fitting. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

This hurricane season will not be remembered for its "D" storm,I can't imagine a retirement of the name.12.144.5.2 04:30, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

For HarveyEdit

Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names.

  • Hannibal
  • Hans
  • Hadrian
  • Handel
  • Hank
  • Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
  • Harris/Harrison
  • Hayden
  • Heath
  • Heinrich
  • Helmut
  • Henrik
  • Herb/Herbert
  • Horacio
  • Howard/Howie
  • Huey
  • Hugh
  • Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
  • Hyacinth - My personal fave

Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank, Homer or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. (Update as of 9/18: I'll add Homer to my picks. It would be fun if Harvey and Maria will be replaced by Homer and Marge. Sadly, Lisa is on List II. Maggie and Bart will follow soon.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:
  • Habib
  • Hackett
  • Haddon
  • Hadley
  • Hadrian
  • Hafiz
  • Hagan
  • Hakim
  • Hakan
  • Hal
  • Haines
  • Haile
  • Hagley
  • Hallam
  • Halstead
  • Hampton
  • Hardy
  • Hardik
  • Harald
  • Harley
  • Henrik
  • Helmut
  • Hendy
  • Henning
  • Henley
  • Hiroshi
  • Hilton
  • Homer (LOL)
  • Hopinks
  • Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
  • Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
  • Hussain
  • Hyatt
  • Hymen
  • Hyde
  • Herrick
  • Huey
  • Hurst
  • Henrietto (LOL)
  • Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
  • Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT'S HENRIETTE AND I'M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

If it's hans atlantic is frozen confirmed Hal is the best name for a Harvey replacement. Hurricane Hal, I love it PuffleTalkBlog 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Harrison is my pick. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Going to go with Hans, Homer, or Hunter (which would be really funny). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

If we had a Hurricane Horton...who would hear it?12.144.5.2 14:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Don't think Hunter will be chosen though. :P Anyways, I like Hannibal (sounds epic), Harris(on), Herbert and Hyacinth. Hardy, Habib, Halstead, Hampton, Harley, Henley, Hilton, Hyde, Herrick and Huey are fine as well. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

For IrmaEdit

We all know Harvey is going to be retired, but Irma is a certain retirement candidate as well, due to her unprecedented devastation in the Caribbean islands and significant destruction in Florida. So, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Irma? Here's a few of my suggestions:

  • Ian(n)a
  • Iara
  • Ina
  • Idette
  • Inga
  • Ilsa
  • Idina
  • Ivy
  • Idona
  • Idra
  • Isha
  • Ignacia
  • Ila
  • Isa
  • Iora

What are your thoughts? Ryan1000 07:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Irina, Ivy, Isa or Inga are my picks. Ilsa sounds like Elsa (which replaced Erika). Ignacia can also be used, though it is similar to Ignacio (which is being used in EPac). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
My pick to replace Irma will be Ivy. Owen 08:44, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
Added Isa. Ignacia is close to Ignacio, though we saw Martin replace Matthew earlier this year while a variation of Martin (Marty) was in the EPac, so Ignacia and Ignacio being used simultaneously isn't comletely out of the question. Ryan1000 08:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
Inga was used in 1961 and 1969, the latter of which was the third-longest lasting TC in the North Atlantic basin. My suggestions are Ilana and Iora, though my personal favourite is Ivy (even though it's already been used 11 times in the WPac and five more times in the SHem). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
Take note that Irma was also used in the WPac for a number of storms, including a C5 in 1971 and a strong C4 in 1981 that killed hundreds in the Philippines (it wasn't retired after that though). So if it seems that (as if) NHC got Irma from the WPac lists, then why not Ivy? However, Irma was used in 1978 in the Atlantic; following that pattern, Inga can be a possible candidate as replacement for Irma. Then again, NHC is somehow leaning towards names that are more current/timely (or even trendy), i.e. Elsa for Erika, Julian for Joaquin, Imelda for Ingrid, Sara for Sandy, Ian for Igor, Martin for Matthew, Owen for Otto, etc. Anyway, this is just in preparation for the impacts of Irma in the northern Lessers & the rest of the Antilles (and eventually U.S.), who knows, Irma might change her mind and turn away from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmmm. Ike......? Stacy54

Lol. That made me laugh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I like Idina. It adds to the recent trend of Frozen themed names, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Isa, Ivy, and Iara are my picks. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:33, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Maybe I'll choose Ivy, Isa, Iora, or Irina. Ilsa sounds too similar to Elsa (to be used in 2021). We are kinda running out of "I" names due to the curse... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Ivy was retired as a typhoon name after a very strong one.Doesn't retiring a name in one basin and then using it in another sort of defeat the purpose?12.144.5.2 15:57, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Some extra names to consider, I personally am a big fan of the next name being Ivy or Inga since Inga has already been used before and not retired.
  • Ibolya - Fairly common female Hungarian name somewhat popular as a landed immigrant name as well.
  • Iggy - Usually thought of this as a male name but there are a few female instances of it too (Iggy Azalea).
  • Ilse
  • Iman
  • Immaculata
  • Imogene
  • Indira
  • Innocence
  • Irina
  • Isla - This has been an increasingly popular name lately.
  • Ivana/Ivanka - (Make a Trump themed list. ;))
  • Ixia
  • Izzy

Again I am rooting for Ivy as the next I name. (If we can use mythological names as well then Io would also possibly be on this list.) --Whiplash (talk) 16:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I am going for either Ivy or Imogen. In my opinion, Ivana is too close to Ivan. Izzy is a variant of Isabel. I also would pick Iola, Idette, or even Inga. TG 2017 20:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
12, that's not unheard of; in the Atlantic, Celia, Dora, and Hilda were all retired on the old naming lists and all 3 of those names are in use in the Eastern Pacific today, though none have been retired since. Also, Typhoon Ike was retired after 1984 and Ike was chosen to replace Isidore in 2002 (but was axed on his first usage in 2008), so it's not impossible for a name to be retired in one basin and used again in another. That has also happened with a number of SHem storms, though I can't name them all. Ryan1000 23:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
I bet the NHC would choose some lame oldish name such as Harold or Hank to replace Harvey. I wouldn't want that. I'd prefer Harper. As for Irma, I very much want the replacement name to be Imogen. I quite like Henriette's suggestions, by the way! Why didn't anyone comment? I'd pick one from her list!blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 16:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

I feel like it would be Ivy. Ivy (like Hank, see above) just seems like a name the NHC would pick, and I'm honestly surprised it hasn't been used yet in the Atlantic, though it has been used a few times in the WPac. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:36, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC suggested Ina and Ivy as possible replacements for Isabel in 2003, as well as Ida (which was chosen), so they may bring up those same names for Irma this time around. Ryan1000 01:53, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
Those 2 names would be nice replacements, although Ivy sounds better (even though it has been used in other basins and retired in the WPac). I additionally love the names Izzy, Imogen, Iggy and Indira. "Innocence" would be hilarious if the name was used for a devastating, aka "not innocent" hurricane. That name would be best suited for fishspinners. :P Doubt Ivana/Ivanka would be chosen either due to political reasons. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:34, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
So far, I like the following names: Ivy, Inga, In(n)a, Irina, Idina and Imogen. Is(s)a is also a good one. (Issa hurricane, lol. Just kidding.) Btw Steve and 12, Ivy wasn't retired in WPac. It was actually last used in 1994. The list was changed the following year. (@ Steve: Maybe you're referring to Iva, which was retired (or should I say removed?) in EPac.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
I'd personally pick Idina, Ivy, or Isa for replacements. I don't personally want Ivana or Ivanka due to potential confusion with Ivan, another devastating "I" storm that was retired only 13 years ago, not necessarily due to political reasons (Ivanka Trump). Ryan1000 02:35, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Here are some more:

  • Icelyn
  • Idalia
  • Idetta
  • Ieesha
  • Imiza
  • Inca
  • India
  • Indiana
  • Indigo
  • Inocencia
  • Italia

Andros 1337 (talk) 19:01, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I highly doubt India will be chosen as a replacement name due to the country named India, seeing as how the WMO removed Israel from the EPac list in 2001 due to the country with the same name. Indiana is probably in the same boat, due to the U.S. state with the same name. Ryan1000 23:30, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
Probably the same goes for Italia as well, since it is Italian/Spanish for Italy. Andros 1337 (talk) 16:19, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
Is it too soon after Isabel to suggest Isabella as a replacement name? Otherwise, I'll go with Ivy as my backup pick. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:03, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
Why not go with the name Ilyssa as a replacement for Irma? It's my new favorite pick, followed by Ivy and Imogen. The name Inga isn't out of the realm of possibility either. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
So while following #Maria on Twitter saw a person with the name Ivelisse. Looked it up to see if it was a common name and apparently appears to be a popular name in Spanish speaking and Caribbean countries. Could be a contender as well. Like this name a lot as well quite unique. --Whiplash (talk) 02:19, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For MariaEdit

Because we are probably going to be having this discussion anyways. M retirements are great because this letter has SO many names to pick from so instead of listing a bunch of possibilities like with I or H as they don't have as much variety I'm just gonna name my 5 favorite M replacement possibilities.

  • Manon - A French name that would be interesting to see
  • Medea - My runner-up.
  • Minerva - My personal fave.
  • Morgan(a)
  • Myra

Thoughts? --Whiplash (talk) 00:34, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Molly is my first choice by considerable distance, as it happens to be the name of one of my closest friends. Minerva, Melanie, Millicent, Mildred, and Morgan would also be good picks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:49, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Millie
  • Molly
  • Morgan
  • Mollie
  • Mary
  • Madison
  • Maddison
  • Madelyn
  • Maggie
  • Minerva (please no)
  • Minnie (hell no)
  • Mackenzie
  • McKenzie
  • Magdelena
  • Mathilde
  • Matilda
  • Megan
  • Meagan
  • Mimi
  • Moxie
  • Monique
  • Maxime
  • Manon
  • Monika
  • Monroe
  • Margot
  • Maryse
  • Marta
  • Marit
  • Metta
  • Mette
What are your opinions? I would personally choose MONIQUE, MEGAN, MAXIME, MATHILDE, MIMI, MANON or MOLLYblow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 01:25, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Melanie, Molly, and McKenzie are my picks. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Here are my ideas, what do you think?
Maxime is a boy's name silly-willy. Maybe you are thinking of Maxine? --Whiplash (talk) 01:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
I don't know how I managed to forget Meg(h)an but that's another name high on my list, probably second after Molly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Maude doesn't seem to have been used.I would suggest Mariah,with its different pronunciation,but the "Paint Your Wagon" song with that different pronunciation actually officially spells the name "Maria" nonetheless.So we can't "call the wind Ma-RYE-uh" differently.
Melisandre?...Munia?12.144.5.2 03:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Sad to see that a beautiful name like "Maria" has to be used for a monster. I choose Molly, Morgan, Madison, Minerva, Mary, Maggie, Mathilde, Matilda, Meghan, Monique, Melanie or Myra. And there could be many more that I like. There's so many "M" names to choose from. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:13, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Maria is shaping up to be a strong retirement candidate if the current forecast pans out and Puerto Rico gets a strong cat 4 landfall from this, although thankfully the global models turn Maria offshore before hitting the Eastern U.S. as of now, hopefully that's the case down the road. My favorite pick would be Melanie, but Molly, Morgan, and Megan are also good choices. Ryan1000 09:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Mara, Martha, Maxine/Maxie, Monica, Melanie, Molly, Mandy, Marge/Margaret, Manon, Meg(an). Those are my picks so far. My favorites are Martha and Marge, tbh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My favorite to replace Maria would be Megan. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Some more I guess...
  • Magda
  • Marge
  • Marianna
  • Marina
  • Marla (I and M open time to add Trump's ex wives and make this the Trump themed list we always wanted)
  • Marlene
  • Meg
  • Megara
  • Melania (See above)
  • Missy
  • Misty
  • Mitzy/Mizzi
  • Mona
  • Mylene
  • Myrna

Edit: Forgot about Miranda.

There are a lot to pick from here. --Whiplash (talk) 20:10, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My best picks are Mae, Margot, Molly, Meg, and Minerva. Possible picks are Martha, Marge, and Matilda. The big no-no is Monica due to the storm of the same name that struck Australia in 2006. Mary is too close to Marie and Maria. TG 2017 20:44, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


My picks. Molly Mitchy Minty Monty Morgan Mexica Merry Mounds Moria Annnnnd..... MONICA!!!!! User:Stacy54 7:57 AM September 19.

Here are some more:

  • Macey
  • Maleficent
  • Margarita
  • Marisol
  • Marley
  • Martina
  • Meredith
  • Michelina

Andros 1337 (talk) 23:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

So many M names we need to stop... but I can't here are some more:

  • Mabel
  • Makayla
  • Maribelle
  • Marvina
  • Maven
  • Melvinia
  • Morticia - Lul if it gets this name.

I am literally going to be quite intrigued to see what the replacement M name will be. Probably one of the more common ones obviously but will be interesting to see if they pick a less popular one. Do we know what some of the suggestions to the WHO were for Michelle or Marilyn? --Whiplash (talk) 04:31, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For NateEdit

Due to the deaths and flooding that has already occurred in Central America, and the forecast track into the Gulf Coast, it is safe to say that Nate may already have a decent chance of retirement.

There are quite a bit of male "N" names, so I'll choose some of my favorites:

  • Noah
  • Norris
  • Nolan(d)
  • Nick
  • Neil
  • Nelson
  • Nico
  • Nigel
  • Norton
  • Niles

There's also more, but it'll be too much to list every single one. But I'll go and pick out some more:

  • Neal (similar to "Neil")
  • Nathaniel (similar to Nate, a bit doubtful this will be chosen)
  • Nadir
  • Niko
  • Nevan
  • Nat
  • Nikolai
  • Nathan (similar to Nate, a bit doubtful this will be chosen)
  • Nacho (doubt the NHC will pick this though :P)
  • Norwell
  • Nilo
  • Ni(c)colo
  • Nilsen
  • Nyle
  • Niall (Horan :P)

Any more interesting names?

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmm... I don't really think that NHC will choose Nathan or Nathaniel because they are same as Nate. Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Noah and Nigel are my picks for the replacement if it does occur. TG 2017 23:37, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Fred, those names are not really the same (the spellings are different, for one). Nate is a nickname for Nathan(iel) and it's possible that the NHC could choose nicknames (or alternative names or variants). But it's not as likely. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:59, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, but WMO used Frederic was replaced with Fabian, then replaced with Fred, which is a shortened/nickname for Frederic. Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Nelson & Nigel are my picks. Neal/Neil is also a good one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:51, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
I dunno what to choose, I guess I have to pick Noah, Nigel, and Nelson. (In fact, Noah is the most popular baby name of 2016.) But Nathan, Nathaniel, Nat, and Nico, no way Jose. (Nico is similar/shortened name to Nicholas.) Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Niko is the name of one of my closest friends, so yeah... my top pick by far. (68, the names Fran and Frances were on the Atlantic lists simultaneously for nearly two decades until Fran's retirement after the 1996 season, so I don't see any issue with Nicholas and Niko/Nico being on the lists at the same time.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
See I was actually going to say that I really didn't think there are very many N names for boys at all. After the ones listed above the only ones I could think of that weren't included would be Neville, Ned, and Natal. Neymar due to the soccer player I believe has also increased in popularity recently, however of all of them Natal is probably my favorite. Edit: Also forgot about Nikita which can be used male or female it is androgynous kind of like Sam. --Whiplash (talk) 18:36, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
My personal picks for Nate, should he be bad enough for the U.S. to get retired (I don't think the Caribbean impacts will cut it, unfortunately) would be Noland, Nigel, Nelson, or Nick. I'm aware Nicholas is already on list 1 (last used in 2003), but as Dylan mentioned, and I did before, having variations of names used on different Atlantic and/or EPac lists isn't out of the question, we saw how Matthew was replaced by Martin earlier this year while Marty was in the EPac lists, so Nick/Nico aren't out of the question either, though it's not my primary pick regardless. Ryan1000 23:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Seeing as how Nate isn't a certain retirement candidate at this point, I've changed the subheader to "potentially for Nate" (like with Don). There's still an outside chance he could go but it's certainly not obvious like Harvey, Irma, or Maria. Ryan1000 23:13, October 9, 2017 (UTC)Eh, scratch what I said before, I didn't expect Nate to be almost as destructive as Otto was for Costa Rica, this may actually be a near-certain candidate for retirement, like the other big 3 storms we saw this year. Ryan1000 11:17, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

For OpheliaEdit

This storm has somewhat of a chance to be retired, since 38 fatalities have occurred. So here's a list of potential replacements.

  • Ora
  • Odessa
  • Olive
  • Oprah
  • Olympia
  • Octavia
  • Oksana

I know there aren't very many names to choose from, but there aren't many "O" names to begin with. TG 2017 18:09, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Some more

  • Odilia
  • Otylia
  • Oribella
  • Oakley
  • Odiana
    • Odiane (variant)
  • Oleysa

Really, what's there to choose from? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 19:36, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

  • Onora
  • Orchid
  • Orla
  • Orpha
  • Orva

Are some other names that are possible. --Whiplash (talk) 00:07, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

Out of all these names, I'd pick Ora, Olive, Odessa, and Orla. Odilia is too close to Odile. TG 2017 11:47, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
I know Odilia is close to Odile, I just thought that there could be a small possibility that it would be used. Or maybe not, idk. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 19:12, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

GenericallyEdit

Without regard to particular letters of the alphabet,what do people think makes a good hurricane name? I prefer that they not be particular modern,without being cobwebby.I suppose one might try for "wimpy" names in the course of wishing for storms to be gentle,but I have this sinking (not to 25inHg I hope) feeling that the tropical systems won't care what we call them."Major Hurricane Fluffy has triggered mudslides washing the remains of Resort City into the sea,after the soil was left waterlogged amid the wholesale devastation wrought by Hurricane Bambi and Hurricane Cuddles..." 12.144.5.2 00:10, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


UHHHHH.... (French Narrator) The very next evening... (French Narrator) Sinba? Beware of Maria.

What is a good replacement for Tammy?--Isaac829E-Mail 05:25, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Tammy is a girls name right? Tiffany might be a good replacement for Tammy. Names like Trixie and Tatum are also good names that'll replace that name. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:32, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
What about Timantha, when Timmy Turner from the Fairly OddParents was turned into a girl for one episode? Andros 1337 (talk) 23:56, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Season ChangesEdit

Surprised no one added this section yet, but so far we've had Arlene, her TCR came out two months ago. Anyone have thoughts on what we might see post-season? Ryan1000 15:53, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

I wonder if will we get TCRs for potential tropical cyclones.--Isaac829E-Mail 19:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
An investigation into just how many records Irma set.(Klotzbach has linked to an obsolete PDF of Irma's records on Twitter today).Post-2005 we had some upgrades,if Irma actually outdid Allen they'll want to figure it out.12.144.5.2 19:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
I'm gonna be bold and say Jose will be upgraded to a Cat 5 post-season.--Isaac829E-Mail 01:42, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
Thoughts: Cindy may go up to 55 knots, Emily will probably be found to have formed earlier and get an upgrade to 45 knots, Jose will probably be upgraded to C5, and Katia will probably be found to have formed earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:02, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

I wonder what will be done with PTC Ten. Could it potentially be designated as an unnamed subtropical storm? Andros 1337 (talk) 19:16, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I have the feeling Jose will be upgraded to a C5, it looked more organized the hour before it was upgraded to 155 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:06, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I definitely think that Jose will be upgraded to a C5. I also think Emily and Harvey will get an upgrade. Emily had a 45 kt peak and Harvey had a peak of 120 kt over land. The most likely thing to happen, however, is Irma getting an upgrade to 165 kt. TG 2017 22:15, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
I'm not sure how the NHC will treat potential tropical cyclones after the season; if PTC 10 gets a report it may be upgraded to an unnamed storm post-season. If Jose doesn't make landfall, I'd like him to be upgraded to a cat 5 so we can have at least one Atlantic cat 5 to never make landfall anywhere at any intensity. Ryan1000 23:35, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
After contacting the NHC myself, one of their forecasters said that, if a potential tropical cyclone is not upgraded to a TD or TS in reanalysis, it will only get a best track line and data, but not its own tropical cyclone report. So PTC 10 this year won't get its own TCR (assuming its not upgraded in reanalysis), but it will still get mention in their best track record. Ryan1000 02:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

KN2731 made this kind of table for reanalysis tropical cyclone reports on the EPac forum page, I'll add this here for the Atlantic too. When a TCR comes out, you can put it in the proper column for that storm, we'll have a side-by-side comparison with operational and reanalysis intensity as well:

Name Operational Intensity and Duration Reanalysis Intensity and Duration TCR
Arlene 50 mph, 993 mbars, April 19-21 50 mph, 990 mbars, April 19-21 Arlene TCR
Bret 45 mph, 1007 mbars, June 19-20 N/A N/A
Cindy 60 mph, 992 mbars, June 20-23 N/A N/A
Four 30 mph, 1008 mbars, July 6-7 N/A N/A
Don 50 mph, 1007 mbars, July 17-19 N/A N/A
Emily 45 mph, 1005 mbars, July 31-August 2 N/A N/A
Franklin 85 mph, 981 mbars, August 7-10 N/A N/A
Gert 105 mph, 967 mbars, August 13-17 N/A N/A
Harvey 130 mph, 938 mbars, August 17-20/23-September 1 N/A N/A
Irma 185 mph, 914 mbars, August 30-September 12 N/A N/A
Jose 155 mph, 938 mbars, September 5-22 N/A N/A
Katia 105 mph, 972 mbars, September 5-9 N/A N/A
Lee 115 mph, 962 mbars, September 15-19/22-30 N/A N/A
Maria 175 mph, 908 mbars, September 16-30 N/A N/A
Nate 90 mph, 981 mbars, October 4-9 N/A N/A
Ophelia 115 mph, 958 mbars, October 9-16 N/A N/A

Hopefully this helps with identifying intensity upgrades/downgrades. Arlene's pressure was knocked down by 3 mbars in reanalysis thus far. EDIT: Slightly changed, this'll make it look better.  Ryan1000 20:35, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

Thanks for helping to copy it over. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:22, September 30, 2017 (UTC)
And soz for the late response on this. But I agree with Jose being a Cat 5 since its close to 160 mph. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:28, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
That table is very neat. I would give a chance for Jose being upgraded to a C5, and Irma could be upgraded to 190 mph. PTC 10 has a chance of being upgraded to something (sub)tropical. Harvey's windspeed could be slightly upgraded as well. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:55, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
I doubt that Harvey will be upgraded to a 140 mph cat 4 in reanalysis; there could be minor pressure adjustments but the winds will likey stay the same. If Irma is upgraded to a 190 mph hurricane, she'd tie Allen, which would be a record for the strongest September hurricane in windspeed. Also, added Nate. Feel free to edit his intensity as time goes on. Ryan1000 00:05, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Lots of people are saying that TD 17 should have formed much earlier, even up to 42 hours ago. Maybe this will show up in reanalysis. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:31, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Since Nate was so close from being a Cat 2, maybe it'll be upgraded to that intensity. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:14, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
I've slightly edited Harvey and Lee to put in the times when they were tropical cyclones, as they dissipated and later regenerated. Not expecting Nate to be upgraded to a cat 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if Irma gets a windspeed upgrade in reanalysis. Ryan1000 02:41, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

General Discussion Edit

Not sure if I'm allowed to make a new section like this, if not just remove. Anyways, I thought a section for general discussion about the season could be helpful and have some use. Discussion about anything related to the season, its storms and effects... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 11:46, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

This is what Forum:Hurricane Talk and Forum:Worldwide activity discussion are for. Use those.--Isaac829E-Mail 18:42, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

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