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Current Systems: SUBTROPICAL STORM GUARÁ


This is the forum page for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

  • Please sign your comments using four tildes (~~~~). Place comments that start a new topic at the bottom of the page and give them a descriptive header.
  • Please keep off-topic and political discussion to a minimum, and respect the guidelines listed to the right.
  • Keep betting pools off this page - there are separate forum pages for those. Refer to the seasonal discussion pages for listings of all the seasonal forums and/or betting pools.

Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, July, August, SeptemberOctober
Storm Event Archives:Harvey, Irma, Maria

Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


Future StartEdit

The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)

Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)
As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)
The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. TG 2017 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

NovemberEdit

This season is almost about to close. But we still have one month left before the end of the season (expect December). Formation of storms are becoming less likely as, you know. Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:00, November 1, 2017 (UTC)

Finally. What has been a catastrophic and horrible season is coming to a close. We will probably see Rina's formation this month and I believe we could go up to Sean by December 31, tying 2011's named storms (not counting unnamed TS). Hoping for Tammy and beyond would be pushing it, unless the Atlantic decides to pull off a 2005 November/post-season. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:44, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
At long last, this year's activity appears to be winding down. Given that this season is now by far the costliest tropical cyclone season on record, I think the Atlantic's finally had enough of churning out catastrophes. At most, I think we'll get one or two more tropical storms in the later part of this month, or maybe one post-season storm. Hopefully, no more damage or loss of life will occur due to an Atlantic tropical cyclone this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:28, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
We have a clean TWO.Is the season actually (as well as officially) over?12.144.5.2 05:17, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
Maybe, if the lull continues throughout the rest of the season. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:45, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
Well, the GFS is picking up on something in the Western Caribbean in about 300+ hours. Nothing's for certain at this time frame though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:20, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
In the NHC's weather summary for October, they've indicated that ACE in October was about 40% above what a normal October experiences, and we're currently at the 5th highest ACE to date in the Atlantic, behind 1893, 1926, 1933, and 2005 (1995 and 2004 would get a few more ACE units later on, 2017 is only 7 ACE units from eclipsing the near-tie between those two seasons though). If we get another hurricane in November, 2017 could be up to the 4th highest ACE ever (or 3rd, if this year can surpass 1893's 231 ACE units). Ryan1000 20:47, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

19L.RINAEdit

AOI: 1000 miles east of BermudaEdit

0/20. Only on the 5-day outlook. Rina? Fr3d (talk) 18:31, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

Isn't this that near 0% AOI that was drifting around here when Philippe was active? Ryan1000 20:47, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
Nope, it's a new one. Now 10/30. Fr3d (talk) 23:42, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, the previous AOI was a low pressure system that succumbed to upper-level winds and dry air a few days back. This is new - and the NHC mentions that a weak low pressure center has just formed within this system. Rina could be very possible from this, unless it decides to go bust like the previous AOI did. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:23, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

95L.INVESTEdit

Now an invest; 10/30. Fr3d (talk) 01:09, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

This appears to have relocated a bit further south like Nate's precursor did last month, though it could move NNE fairly quickly, so this had better get on with it before it moves into unfavorable conditions. Ryan1000 08:49, November 4, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:25, November 5, 2017 (UTC)
Whoa, 50/70 now. --Patteroast (talk) 17:51, November 5, 2017 (UTC)
Is it me or is the system rapidly organizing? Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:19, November 5, 2017 (UTC) Or is it neither one?
Yeah, I think it's rapidly organizing. It was at 10/30 all of yesterday, but only now are the chances of developing increasing by a lot. The NHC says that it's been showing signs of organization so it could very well become Rina before conditions become less favorable by Thursday. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:11, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, this thing actually has a decent chance to be Rina! User:Stacy54/It's November, but there's always next year 4:52 PM.

Now up to 70/80. Rina's coming! Fr3d (talk) 23:44, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, this might actually become Rina. This season just keeps going on and on. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 04:23, November 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression NineteenEdit

Bam. It's here. - Garfield

It'll be Rina but it won't be a hurricane. Looking like a fish though. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:25, November 6, 2017 (UTC)
Useless factoid: if this becomes Rina and fails to reach hurricane status, it will be the Atlantic's first 'R' storm to fall short. All five Atlantic 'R' storms up to now have become hurricanes; Roxanne '95 was a Cat 3, Rita '05 was a Cat 5, Richard '10 was a Cat 2, Rina '11 was a Cat 3, and Rafael '12 was a Cat 1. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:21, November 6, 2017 (UTC)
I hope it does reach hurricane status so the lucky streak can continue. It's forecast to get up to 60 mph before extratropical transition, which means it could become a hurricane if it tries a little harder. Anyway, this TD is guaranteed to become Rina. This season just won't quit. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:15, November 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm RinaEdit

And here she is. 40 mph/1010 mb

Quite the high pressure she has there. Crossing my fingers for a surprise Cat 1, but unless there's some kind of miracle, it won't happen. Send Help Please (talk) 02:55, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Hello Rina. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 02:56, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Ahh...it's nice to see a fishspinner after all the destruction the season caused. What a relief :) Anyway Rina could become the first Atlantic "R" storm on record to miss hurricane strength, unless a miracle happens. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:15, November 7, 2017 (UTC)
And Rina is here. Since it'll not be threatening any land, I could just sit back and relax and watch this storm go. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:57, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

As of the 5 am advisory, pressure has gone down to 1009 mbars, further strengthening expected. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 09:07, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Rina (native script: "莉奈"), こんにちは、大西洋へようこそ!(Hello and welcome to the Atlantic!) Should not be as mad as Ophelia once she passes towards Europe. Only expected to peak as a TS, something which an "R" storm has never done before in the Atlantic like what Stevie said :o Sit back and enjoy what is likely the last storm of the season!  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 13:14, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Winds up to 60 mph, Rina is intensifying pretty quickly. Watch Rina somehow strengthen into a hurricane... With the way this season has been, that honestly wouldn’t surprise me. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 08:54, November 8, 2017 (UTC)

I would like to see that. But it'll be a Post-Tropical Cyclone tonight. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 8, 2017 (UTC)
I would be surprised if Rina strengthened into a hurricane. It doesn't have much time before it becomes post-tropical. To be honest, it is likely near peak intensity. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:15, November 8, 2017 (UTC)
Winds down to 50 mph. Won't be a hurricane though. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:40, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Yep, Rina is on her way out. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:50, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Rina to become Post-Tropical later today. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:25, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post Tropical Cyclone RinaEdit

She’s gone. Fr3d (talk) 15:19, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Gone. Rina is now post-tropical but still at 40 kt per two scatterometer passes. Blake had some interesting things to say in the last advisory. "Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year, seven of them still had another tropical storm after today's date." --182.58.124.69 15:22, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

That's not impossible, as the long-range of the GFS has been showing the potential for a dangerous storm to form in the southwestern Caribbean off of Central America before the season is out, like how Otto formed late last year, but the NW Caribbean is starting to become less favorable, as SST's aren't as warm there as they are north of Panama. Ryan1000 17:49, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Bye Rina. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:49, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Well, bye. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:03, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

Bye Rina. I hope this is the final storm of the season, but I won't discount the possibility of Sean forming sometime through the rest of the month or even in December. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:14, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

Medicane Numa/Ex-RinaEdit

Feel free to delete this if it's not wanted, but it seems Rina has directly re-developed into Medicane Numa - Garfield

Apparently the remnants of Rina became a European windstorm near the British Isles, and that system split into two, with the southern portion entering the Mediterranean Sea. That southern portion is now gaining subtropical characteristics. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:43, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
It looks quite remarkable on satellite imagery. An eye is visible, with convection around -50C towards the west. ASCAT also shows a closed circulation with winds around 35-40 kt. Kiewii 23:55, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
This looks much like a tropical cyclone. Quite an unusual occurrence here. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:43, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, an unusual Mediterranean storm. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:49, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
First thing that comes to my mind when I heard "Medicane Numa": NUMA NUMA However I am so sorry to hear what happened in the Med. blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 18:21, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
The good old days of YouTube... XD Unfortunately, Numa killed 16 people in Greece due to extreme flooding (at least that's what I heard) :( ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:44, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
And it looks like Numa had dissipated today. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, November 20, 2017 (UTC)

96L.INVESTEdit

AOI: Disturbance near the AzoresEdit

Only on the 5 day outlook. Seems like the Atlantic's not quite done with us yet. Send Help Please (talk) 00:59, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

This could become Sean. Fr3d (talk) 01:41, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
Currently 0/20. As long as it remains a fishspinner, I am okay with it. What a season though (so far). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:15, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
Another one?! The Atlantic doesn't want to quit... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:48, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 0/30. --Patteroast (talk) 13:11, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
Ummm... it has a chance to become Sean. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:32, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
This season just won’t quit. This is incredible. I just hope it stays away from land. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:01, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

FYI, it's quite uncommon for systems to form in the location where this AOI is at. If Sean comes from this AOI, it will join an elite club of systems that include the 2013 unnamed subtropical storm, 2009's Grace, the 2005 unnamed subtropical storm, 1990's Edouard, 1980's Ivan, and likely more that formed around here. 2012's Nadine regenerated in this region and of course Ophelia moved through this region as the easternmost major ever. Vince 2005 formed even further east than this. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:11, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

10/40 now. C'mon, keep doing what you're doing and set up the first repeat S storm! --Patteroast (talk) 23:33, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

96L.INVESTEdit

Invested. Here comes Sean! What a hyperactive season this year is... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:52, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

There have been quite a handful of storms to form in the vicinity of the Azores in the past, recently including Ophelia and Alex of last year, though there haven't been too many November storms to do so. Either way, if this becomes Sean, it probably won't do too much to the Azores, maybe some rain showers but that's about it. Fun fact: if this becomes Sean, it'll be the first time since 2005 (which also used this naming list) to have two or more storms form in November, with that year having Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon form in the month. Ryan1000 02:28, November 12, 2017 (UTC)
This season is really wanting to shape up into a 2005-like ending for sure. I think we will end the season at Tammy this year. Right now, this storm is at 10/40 still as of 7 A.M. TG My Birthday 14:03, November 12, 2017 (UTC)
If this becomes a TC, it will directly become TS Sean. AL, 96, 2017111212, , BEST, 0, 297N, 335W, 35, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, --182.58.120.95 14:18, November 12, 2017 (UTC)
NHC has it up to 30/50, now. --Patteroast (talk) 23:39, November 12, 2017 (UTC)
It would be cool to see this system become Sean, because that would mean we have the most active November since 2005. I'd even give an outside chance of seeing Tammy this year (if this system becomes Sean, of course). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:31, November 13, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, I want it to be Sean. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:02, November 13, 2017 (UTC)

And now it’s an invest. Well, actually it’s been an invest for a day now, I’m just slow. Good grief, this season is stubborn. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:36, November 13, 2017 (UTC)

Also, I noticed that Patteroast is back. Welcome back Patteroast! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:42, November 13, 2017 (UTC)

AL, 96, 2017111312, , BEST, 0, 311N, 333W, 35, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 100, 1016, 160, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, --182.58.111.73 14:34, November 13, 2017 (UTC)
Up to 40/50 per latest TWO. It will likely develop into a subtropical storm if it develops. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:38, November 13, 2017 (UTC)
Or "if" it develops, because the NHC now says that upper-level winds will become unfavorable after the next couple days. I'm afraid that it might only be a weakling at most. Or it could even bust. Hopefully it becomes a subtropical depression, but not a name stealer. If this has to be Sean, it should try to get as strong as possible before upper-level winds arrive. I'd probably prefer the Subtropical TD option because of the Azores threat. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:20, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
50/50. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 40/40. I doubt that it will form. Fr3d (talk) 18:02, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
It would need to suddenly organize right now to become anything. Rina could have very well been the final storm of this ridiculous season. But still, let's not rule out the possibility of a late-November or December storm. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:10, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
Looking less likely that this'll become Sean, though it's not impossible just yet. The global models have shown the possibility of some development in the SW Caribbean, the 18Z GFS in particular showing a short-lived TS hitting the DR, though we only have two weeks left. Time is running out for the Atlantic to produce another storm before this historic season ends. Ryan1000 22:05, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 10/10. This will definitely not form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:23, November 15, 2017 (UTC)
Now off of the NHC site. Sean, if we even get him, will have to wait. I have a feeling we will see Sean at some point, but it’s becoming more and more unlikely. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:00, November 15, 2017 (UTC)
I have that feeling as well. Sean might be a late-November or December storm if it ever does come. However, I am not going to be surprised if Rina's the last storm of 2017. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:51, November 15, 2017 (UTC)
I feel confident about Rina being the last storm. I won't be surprised if Sean comes. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:50, November 16, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Disturbance near Central AmericaEdit

AOI: Disturbance near Central AmericaEdit

New disturbance popped up on the NHC site this morning, has 10/10 chances. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 13:14, November 16, 2017 (UTC)

I doubt it will form because of the strong upper-level winds that will keep it from developing. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 16, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, I doubt this will develop to be honest. This historic, intense season could very well be over. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:41, November 16, 2017 (UTC)
Upped slightly to 20/20. Still unlikely to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:44, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
This was the wave the GFS showed potentially becoming a brief tropical storm near Hispaniola in a few days, but strong shear should keep this from becoming more than a minimal TS, if that. Ryan1000 07:12, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
Down to 10/10. Upper-level winds are ripping it apart. Will Sean even come this year? ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:45, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
Dropped off the TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:45, November 18, 2017 (UTC)

DecemberEdit

Unless we get a post-season surprise, that pretty much wraps the season up. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:37, December 1, 2017 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm GuaráEdit

Feel free to delete this if it's not wanted,but we have SS Guará right now with winds 8/9 (40-50 MPH).JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:14, December 9, 2017 (UTC)

Yes, you can post about South Atlantic storms here. Last year we put up Deni and Eçaí. Anyway, it's not everyday that a subtropical or especially a tropical cyclone occurs here. Guará's current intensity is 45 mph/998 mbars according to Wikipedia, and it should move eastwards away from land. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:20, December 10, 2017 (UTC)

FarewellEdit

Still got 4 days left of hurricane season left, but with the Atlantic being dead right now and none of the models showing any development for the next 5 days, I think it's safe to say that the historic 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has finally ceased to be.

That being said, there's a lot to say about this year's season. 2017 ranks as the 9th most active Atlantic hurricane season in terms of named storms, tied with 1936 and behind 1969, 1887, 1995, 2010-2012, 1933 and 2005, and the 7th most active in ACE, trailing closely behind 2004, 1995, 1926 and 1893, but well behind 2005 and 1933. Meteorological statistics aside, I think the one thing we'll all take home from this season is the unusually high amount of destruction seen in the United States and Caribbean this year; 2017 ranks as the costliest hurricane season on record and makes 2017 the costliest year for weather-related disasters on record (although 2011 had more overall damage from natural disasters, mostly due to the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan that year). Ten years ago, The Weather Channel aired the second episode of the second season of their worst-case scenario disaster television series "It Could Happen Tomorrow" at 9:30 PM EDT on January 7th, 2007. This episode (which aired immediately after the first episode, which depicted the possibility of an F5 tornado hitting Chicago, which fortunately hasn't happened yet) depicted the possibility of a strong category 4 or 5 hurricane directly hitting Houston, Texas, destroying the city and the coastal cities southeast of Houston, including Galveston. Fast forward ten years later to this year, and Hurricane Harvey occured. While Harvey did not directly strike Galveston or Houston as a category 4 or stronger hurricane, Harvey arguably did fulfill the worst-case scenario hurricane in that episode of It Could Happen Tomorrow, because the stalling motion performed by the hurricane near the coastline for almost a week caused almost 200 billion dollars in Mitch-like flood damage to the city and it's suburbs, which would be at least 75 billion dollars more destructive than what would happen if the 1900 hurricane happened again today (which was what that episode was based off of, and to a lesser extent Hurricane Carla, which didn't hit the city as severely), according to estimates of wealth normalization for 2017 USD. There are only three other coastal US cities that could suffer more damage from a worst-case scenario hurricane that what Harvey did to Houston, and those cities are Miami and Tampa in Florida, and New York City. Hurricane Irma, which wasn't as destructive as Harvey, but still very severe overall, was forecast to be a worst-case scenario hurricane for Miami and Tampa at some points in her lifetime, but fortunately that didn't happen. Still, Irma caused over 65 billion dollars in damage to Florida and the Caribbean, ranking her as the 5th costliest hurricane of all time, behind Harvey, Katrina, Maria, and Sandy. Although Maria didn't hit the mainland US, Maria's extremely powerful landfalls in Dominica and Puerto Rico caused her to be the most destructive hurricane for the Caribbean on record, and the 102 billion dollars in damage caused to Puerto Rico by Maria rank her as the 3rd costliest hurricane of all time, only being surpassed by Katrina and Harvey. With over 367 billion dollars in damage this year, mostly from the aforementioned 3 major hurricanes, we may never see a hurricane season this destructive ever again in our lifetimes, and although the 2017 season is over, I doubt anyone will forget this year for a long time to come. Ryan1000 12:56, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

Finally a devastating and destructive season almost comes to an end. Here are the totals for the season: (as of December)
  • Depressions: 18
  • Named Storms: 17
  • Hurricanes: 10
  • Majors: 6
  • Category 5s: 2
  • Deaths: More than 441
  • Damages: More than $368.86 billion
  • Strongest storm in terms of pressure: Maria (908 mbar)
  • Strongest storm in terms of winds: Irma (185 mph)
  • Costliest storm: Harvey ($198.63 billion)
  • Deadliest storm: Maria (>106 deaths)
I'm glad it's over. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:14, November 26, 2017 (UTC)
Unless we get a post-season surprise, it's safe to say that this season has pretty much wrapped up. What an unforgettable and devastating season. With hurricanes like Harvey, Irma, and Maria, 2017 will probably never be forgotten anytime soon. It's unbelievable that the season has become more devastating than 2005. I thought it would be a much longer time before a season can surpass 2005's damage total. Well, 2017 proved me wrong. Harvey really almost was like a real-life scenario of that devastating Texas hurricane mentioned in that episode of It Could Happen Tomorrow. Thank god Irma missed a direct worse-case scenario hit on Tampa or Miami, but it still caused a huge track of devastation throughout the northern Caribbean islands. Also, Dominica and Puerto Rico got so hammered by Maria that recovery may take years upon years. The Lesser Antilles have gotten absolutely hammered this year which also led to the island of Barbuda being completely abandoned until they rebuild the island. Now it's time to list all the incredible events and records this season did. Get ready for a lengthy list. Ok, here we go... This season has seen the end of the U.S. major hurricane drought, the most active season since 2012, the first time 2 C5s formed in one year since a decade ago, the second time on record that 2 storms made landfall at C5 intensity (along with 2007), the highest amount of majors since 2005, 10 consecutive hurricanes (most in satellite era, overall tied with 3 years in the 19th century but those may not be reliable), the 7th most intense Atlantic season on record, 3 hurricanes each with an ACE over 40 (first time on record), the day with most ACE produced (Sep. 8), three major hurricanes threatening the Lesser Antilles within the span of 2 weeks, the lowest ACE ever recorded for the season's first 5 storms (of course followed by insanity), the most intense April Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and first one since 2003, the earliest MDR formation on record and unusually southerly storm, a Mexican hurricane which somehow avoided deaths, the costliest tropical cyclone ever (and, preliminary, three in the Atlantic top 5 costliest ever), a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" which somehow failed to develop, a hurricane which retained 185+ mph winds for a worldwide record length of time, ties the infamous Labor Day hurricane for the most powerful landfalls in Atlantic records and is the strongest ever outside the GOM or Caribbean, the longest-lasting hurricane since Nadine, an epic/awesome fishspinner who rose back up from the dead, the first C5 landfall on Dominica on record, the fastest-moving hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on record, the first tropical cyclone landfall in Mississippi since Katrina, the easternmost major hurricane on record, and a storm whose remnants spawned a medicane. If I missed any other interesting facts/records, tell me. While it may be true that a season as devastating as this may never come again in our lifetimes, it could've been even worse. Imagine a season in which a Harvey-repeat, a great Miami/Tampa hurricane, a re-Irma/Maria for the Lessers, a great New York City hurricane and a re-Mitch for Central America all occurred in the same year. That would surpass 2017's damage for sure. Global warming may increase the frequency of these disasters, sea-level rise may create larger storm surges, and combined with U.S. dollar inflation, makes it entirely possible we could see a season even more devastating than this throughout the rest of the 21st century. But for now, farewell to a record-breaking season of devastation that will not be forgotten anytime soon. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:12, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


Wow, what a season. It started in April with the formation of Arlene, and I got happy that I was getting to track hurricanes early for the third year in a row. A few more tropical storms formed, then we all witnessed the first ever Hurricane Franklin, I got really scared of the fact that it was heading towards a landslide-prone area in Mexico. Thankfully, Franklin ended up causing no deaths. Then Hurricane Gert formed, and stayed offshore, unfortunately causing two deaths. It was around this time I optimistically thought "maybe this season won’t be too bad." Little did I know what was to come. A disturbance formed, then became Tropical Storm Harvey. Harvey died, and then regenerated, and then became the first major hurricane landfall in the US in almost 12 years, and is now the costliest hurricane on record, with almost $200 billion in damage almost DOUBLE the damage wrought by Katrina. Behind it, came Irma, which became a Category 5, and became the second major hurricane landfall in the US this season. Jose came behind Irma, and was a strong hurricane, but was pretty much a fishspinner, aside from causing one death. Lee pulled pranks on us, dying and then becoming a Cat 3. Maria then caused tragedy in Dominica and Puerto Rico, becoming the second Cat 5 of the season, the second one to make landfall, and very likely the third costliest hurricane on record. And it’s continued to go on and on, with Nate and Ophelia also causing some significant destruction. Finally, finally it’s over. If we manage to get a December surprise, I just hope it doesn’t cause any destruction. Leeboy100 Hello! 04:25, November 27, 2017 (UTC)

This season is simply tragic. Three out of the top five costliest Atlantic hurricanes occurred in this one season alone. Not to mention the death toll could go above a thousand since more than 500 fatalities could have occurred in Puerto Rico due to Maria, instead of the official toll of 55. The power exhibited by this year's Atlantic hurricanes has been amazing, yet nothing short of terrifying. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season won't be forgotten for a very long time. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:19, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
I'm not going to write a long essay on this hurricane season, but what can I say? This season was beyond expectations; deadly and destructive (especially the Big Three, especially now that two have crossed the $100 billion price tag) plus a few lovely storms in betweek (e.g. Lee). This would be an unforgettable season for decades to come. Good riddance, hope we don't see another season like this ever again! SUPREME COLGATE CREW 14:44, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
Okay, Ophelia apparently didn't do as much damage as was originally thought, with totals dropped to about US$71 million (more than 10 times less than before). There again the season's total damages are still over US$367 billion. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:34, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
I guess that kind of reminds me of 2005's Ophelia; it also had a high estimate of damage in North Carolina of over a billion dollars, but it got kicked down to ~70 million in reanalysis. Regardless, 2017 was still the costliest season for the U.S. on record, and even using low-end estimates, this year still caused over 206 billion dollars in damage to the U.S, according to Dr. Master's latest blog post. In that post he also mentions that the second-costliest AHS on record, if it would happen again today, would be the 1893 Atlantic hurricane season, when 3 major hurricanes hit what are now 3 major coastal U.S. cities: The Sea Islands Hurricane (Savannah, Georgia), The Great Charleston Hurricane (guess where) and the Cheniere Caminada Hurricane (New Orleans); overall damage from such a season today would be at least 185 billion dollars. Off-topic from the Atlantic, but Dr. Masters also mentions in that blog post that according to studies from the meteorologists that compiled the top 10 costliest Atlantic hurricanes if they happened again today (though I'm surprised they didn't mention the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, which would certainly be up there), if a 140 mph monster typhoon like Typhoon Ruby in 1964 would strike Hong Kong directly today, it could cause a whopping 241 billion dollars in damage, more than 40 billion dollars ahead of Harvey's current estimate of roughly 200 billion dollars. That city had an insanely close call from Typhoon Vicente in 2012 (which went from a TS to a cat 4 in only 12 hours), but it fortunately missed them to the west. Ryan1000 14:22, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
And I might have jinxed the death toll. Latest estimate for Maria's fatality count in Puerto Rico is 1085. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:31, November 30, 2017 (UTC)
Whoa, that just shows how hard Puerto Rico got hit by that monster. That's an upper-level estimate and I hope the official death toll will be lower. Anyway, the NHC has issued their last TWO of the year. Unless a post-season surprise shows up, good riddance to the devastating and historic 2017 Atlantic hurricane season! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:51, December 1, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements.

  • Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
  • Bret - 2% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
  • Cindy - 15% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes, but overshadowed by Harvey.
  • Don - 10% - May have a slight chance of being retired for political reasons, but I wouldn't count on it, so I will keep my estimate conservative.
  • Emily - 0.01% - Very minor impact.
  • Franklin - 5% - Damage total unknown, but probably minor and caused no deaths.
  • Gert - 1% - Caused two deaths due to rip currents, but that is it.
  • Harvey - 100% - Record flooding in Texas, an obvious retirement candidate.
  • Irma - 100% - Another obvious retirement candidate due to damage in the Caribbean.
  • Katia - 8% - Probably caused similar damage to Franklin, but caused two deaths.
  • Jose - 2% - Only minor damage in the Caribbean and East Coast.
  • Lee - 0% - Regenerated and currently active, but still not expected to affect land.
  • Maria - 100% - Caused major damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico.

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:02, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's RetirementsEdit

I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

  • Arlene: 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
  • Bret: 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
  • Cindy: 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS. TG 2017 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
  • Don: 25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. TG 2017 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
  • Emily: 0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. TG 2017 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
  • Franklin: 0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
  • Gert: 5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Harvey: 100% - I really have no words about how bad this storm was. Harvey jumped off a cliff, and could bring Irma with him. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
  • Irma: 100% - After wiping out Barbuda and St. Martin, Irma is most likely going to go after this year. TG 2017 19:47, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
  • Jose: 0.01% - Almost hit the Northern Leeward Islands. That would have been a mess.
  • Katia: 1% - Struck Mexico at the same time as a strong earthquake. This gives Katia a slightly higher chance than Franklin.
  • Lee: 0% - Lee redeemed himself. But because he was a fish, he's coming back in 2023.
  • Maria: 100% - Not a chance she will stay for 2023. TG 2017 23:54, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Nate: 95% - It was not as bad in the US as what happened in Costa Rica. Nate was worse than Otto in Costa Rica. TG 2017 12:10, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
  • Ophelia: 85% - If Ophelia had happened last year, this storm would've had less of a chance to be retired, since its name would have not been retained for the windstorm when it hit Ireland. However, because this storm retained its name when it hit Ireland, they could request the name Ophelia to be retired. It is very likely they could because an estimated $1.8 billion in damages has been done from Ophelia, making Ophelia as costly as the Great Storm of 1987. Ophelia has a 15% chance of staying due to the storm not being damaging enough, which is very unlikely when this storm was being compared to the worst windstorms that have hit the British Isles. My best bet is that Ophelia will not be on the lists after this season.
  • Philippe: 0.01% - Haven't used that color since Emily... Thanks, Philippe. What a waste of a name. TG 21:53, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
  • Retired (80-100%): Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, Ophelia
  • Possibly Retired (50-79%): None
  • Notable mentions (20-49%): Cindy, Don
  • Final retirements: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, Ophelia
  • Replacements: Hank, Ivy, Minerva, Noah, Olive

TG 2017 15:56, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements from SteveEdit

Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.

  • Retirements, etc.: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms.
  • In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
  • Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Possibly Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
  • How Far Can This Season Go?: Lists the names of every potential storm that could form from here on out and the chances that they may form by the end of the season.
  • Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly.

  • Arlene: ~0%, B+ - It was fantastic for forming in April, but being only a moderate TS means it can't receive higher than a B+.
  • Bret: 1%, F - Existed in an unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect). The location gives Bret a tiny retirement chance and improves the grade a bit.
  • Cindy: 10%, D - The region it struck has been through much worse, and it has been very overshadowed by Harvey.
  • Don: 20%, Z - Failed to redeem itself after 2011, but 50 mph is enough to prevent it from getting my worst grade. The 20% is for the unlikely chance that just because Donald Trump is president, it could get the "Adolph, Israel, and Isis" treatment.
  • Emily: 0.1%, D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
  • Franklin: 5%, C+ - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Damage totals are unknown and there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Damage could have been a bit extensive, however.
  • Gert: 0.1%, B+ - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. 2 saddening indirect deaths from rip currents is nowhere near enough for the name to be considered for retirement.
  • Harvey: ~100%, B- - This will be retired. A cataclysmic flooding nightmare for Texas, and the costliest storm in U.S. history! Totally beats up Katrina's previous record. The NHC has to be taking some weird drug if they don't retire this. (There is an explanation for why Harvey's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
  • Irma: ~100%, B - A catastrophic beast that raged through the Caribbean, causing a trail of devastation along the way. Florida was impacted as well, as it was very destructive there. This was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. There is no logical reason why this won't be retired. (There is an explanation for why Irma's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
  • Jose: 1%, A+ - It was very long-lasting and briefly threatened the Lesser Antilles. A total of 70 advisories were issued (the most since Nadine '12), and it almost became a C5 at one point. One indirect death occurred due to rip currents off of New Jersey. Overall, Jose caused only minimal damage.
  • Katia: 10%, B- - 3 deaths give this a higher retirement chance than Franklin. Doesn't appear that there was much damage though.
  • Lee: ~0%, A+++(x∞) - An amazing storm that began as a weak TS. After its initial dissipation, we all wrote this off as a pathetic fail. Well, guess what: It later regenerates and rapidly intensifies to an epic winning C3! And this was all done while out to sea. The Atlantic win of the year! Lee was also a tiny hurricane. All of its awesome feats earns it my highest possible grade.
  • Maria: ~100%, B - Completely devastated Dominica after becoming the first C5 on record to make landfall there. Puerto Rico was also sent into a humanitarian crisis after Maria made landfall there as a powerful and dangerous C4. Other islands around the region were severely impacted as well. North Carolina was briefly threatened in Maria's later life, with rip currents all along the east coast. This b**** will not be returning in 2023. (There is an explanation for why Maria's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
  • Nate: 80%, C- - The Gulf Coast kind of dodged a bullet here - had it not moved into Central America, it could've turned into another dangerously intense and devastating monster. U.S. damages are only around 1 billion, so retirement for U.S. impacts is very unlikely due to the previous, more damaging monsters that affected the country this year. But the retirement chance is still high because of 43 deaths in Central America. That's a higher death toll than Otto last year, which was retired. Its damage is also similar to Otto in Costa Rica. Considering Otto was retired, Nate will very likely go as well. However there's still a slight chance that it will stay because it was not nearly as powerful as Otto when it struck, and it has been overshadowed by the big three monsters this season.
  • Ophelia: 25%, A++ - What was a harmless fishspinner and the easternmost major hurricane on record became a significant windstorm for the British Isles after extratropical transition. It also fanned deadly wildfires in Portugal and Spain. Retirement is unlikely because 1.) it wasn't as bad as originally thought, 2.) a storm has never been retired for European impacts before, and 3.) it was not tropical when striking the British Isles. The fact that it unexpectedly intensified to become the easternmost major on record really increases the grade, but the post-tropical impacts prevent it from getting my highest grade.
  • Philippe: 0.1%, F - A strange fast-moving storm that has only caused minimal damage, so this won't be retired. Kind of a relief from the previous very devastating storms. However, it's F because it was weak and broke the hurricane streak. If Philippe became a hurricane, we would have broken the tie with 1878, 1886, and 1893 to claim the all-time streak record (but that didn't happen).
  • Rina: 0.1%, B - A nice harmless fishspinner while tropical. Quite rare for this year's season to have storms like this. :) Also spawned a rare medicane after becoming post-tropical, which really improves the grade. Tiny retirement chance due to post-tropical impacts.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.


Retirement percentage colors: 0%, ~0%, 0.00001%, 0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99999%, ~100%, 100%

The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.


Intensity colors: TS (40-45 mph), TS (50-60 mph), TS (65-70 mph), C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), C5 (≥185 mph)


Grading colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, Z, Z-(x∞)

Certainly Retired: Harvey, Irma, Maria
Likely Retired: Nate
Possibly Retired: None
Probably Not Retired: Cindy, Don, Franklin, Katia, Ophelia
Not Retired: Arlene, Bret, Emily, Gert, Jose, Lee, Philippe, Rina


Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):

  • No storms are currently active

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-85%
  • "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
  • "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
  • "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Possibly Retired, Likely Retired, and Certainly Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Harvey (Certainly Retired):

  • Henley
  • Harper
  • Harris(on)
  • Hyacinth
  • Harold
  • Herbert
  • Hampton
  • Harley
  • Hyde
  • Hilton

Irma (Certainly Retired):

  • Ivy
  • Ina
  • Izzy
  • Imogen
  • Indira
  • Isla
  • Ilse
  • Irina
  • Inga
  • Isa

Maria (Certainly Retired):

  • Maggie
  • Martha
  • Minerva
  • Morgan
  • Molly
  • Melanie
  • Madison
  • Meg(h)an
  • Matilda
  • Monica

Nate (Likely Retired):

  • Noah
  • Norris
  • Nolan
  • Nick
  • Neil
  • Nelson
  • Nico
  • Nigel
  • Norton
  • Niles

Predicted final replacements announced in spring 2018: Henley, Ivy, Maggie, Noah.

  • Chances that Sean will be used: 5% - Getting increasingly unlikely that a post-season surprise will come.
  • Chances that Tammy will be used: 0.00001% - Almost impossible.
  • Chances that Vince or anything beyond will be used: ~0% - Going this far down in December? Absolutely not going to happen.

  • The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
  • This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
  • The colors for the 40-45 mph TS and the ≥185 mph C5 are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "65-70 mph TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac.
  • A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
  • Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
  • EXPLAINS HARVEY, IRMA, AND MARIA: Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

I see you changed almost everything on your retirements. I'd say, this is better than before. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
Oh, thanks! I changed my predictions to be more in-depth and realistic. Of course, new intensity colors were added and "F-" is now "Z". ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:03, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
A little odd that the very things that earn 100% get marked down in the letter grades.12.144.5.2 14:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)
I did it for a reason. Storms that kill people and are very devastating don't deserve the highest grades. For example: if I gave Irma my highest possible grade or even anything close to it, it might seem insensitive to victims of Irma, for anyone who had friends/family affected, etc. It just seems wrong to give storms like Irma their highest possible grade, because in my opinion, it feels similar to cheering on a storm that is about to devastate a city. So for the top costliest hurricanes on record or for the top deadliest, a maximum of a 2-letter reduction is necessary. Harvey and Irma both got the maximum reduction due to their extreme damages. And to clarify, "2-letter" reductions don't apply to storms that would otherwise get at least A++. The distance between A++ and B- is the same as A+ to C+, A to C, etc. So what appears to be less than a 2 letter drop is actually the same amount of reduction. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:50, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
So what is the point of the grade?...killing people is a reason storms get retired.12.144.5.2 06:21, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, I know that. I grade every named storm that forms, even the destructive ones. Grades and retirement chances have absolutely no association, in fact the opposite. The lower the retirement chance, the higher the grade will be unless it is a failure TS. Weak TS's almost always get a very low grade because they have not performed well at all (but exceptions could be made if they formed at a very unusual time or location, or surprised forecasters). Grades are meant to be for how well a storm performed, taking into account how well it defied forecasts (or didn't), or how strong it became (or lack of strength). They also take into account unusual locations, unusual time of year and longevity. Destruction and deaths factors in just because the devastating ones are monsters that strike fear into everyone, are infamous and hateful. The point is that every storm deserves a grade, but I can't give the really devastating ones the highest grades due to how insensitive it could appear to victims and those who had friends/family affected. These devastating storms are universally hated as well - who would give such a vengeful monster an A++? The highest grade that the most devastating storms ever (like Katrina, Harvey, Irma, Sandy, or Haiyan) could receive is "B". That is probably one the highest grades possible that doesn't appear insensitive. On the other hand, Genevieve '14 would receive "A+++(x∞)" for being a great fighter, lasting so long, intensifying to a C5 much to everybody's surprise and not harming anyone. I hope you understand what I mean in my comments above, because I don't want to argue about this anymore. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:27, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
Steve, if you'd like, you could make a separate tab for your personal grade of each storm and another tab solely for their chances of being retired, since you don't correlate the two. Ryan1000 19:44, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
Nah, I'm fine with keeping it the way it is. I don't want to have too many tabs. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:05, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

68's Prediction of Retirements + GradesEdit

Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA, Fail%, N/A)

(Category colors: TD/PTC, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

(Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA)

50% or more=italics

Storm Name Chance of Retirement Grade Comments Replacement Names (if it's a retirement candidate)
Arlene 0% A++ Wow, an early season surprise in April (which is rare). I give credit to Arlene for being used for eleven tropical cyclones (including this one), which makes it the most frequently used name in the Atlantic. But since it didn't impact any land, it has no chance to be retired. See you in 2023!

Grade reason: Formed in April and became the strongest storm in April. However, it was only a moderate TS.

-
Bret 1% E An unusual storm that struck Venezuela and Trinidad. It was the first storm to strike Venezuela since a storm in 1993 by the same name. It caused about $3 million of damages and 2 deaths but it's most likely that it will be on 2023.

Grade reason: Lasted only for a day and was kinda pathetic. But it stuck an unusual location earning at least an E.

-
Cindy 15% E This storm made landfall in Louisiana; it caused a total of 3 deaths, caused flooding in southern Louisiana, and spawned tornadoes. It was one of the most wettest tropical cyclones in Mississippi (ranked 10th) Damages are unknown, but will be released later on.

Grade reason: Stuck Louisiana as it was overshadowed by Harvey more than a month later.

-
Four N/A F Grade reason: Struggled to intensify due to dry air. Fought to stay alive but couldn't help that. -
Don 5% F He tried to redeem himself after 2011 but couldn't. A 50 mph failure in the Atlantic (I think). It caused no deaths or damages as of now. It may be retired due to political reasons (like the Adolph, Isis, Israel retirement) of the president of the U.S. (Donald Trump). Update: lowered chances to 5% since I doubt it would be retired.

Grade reason: Failed to redeem itself from 2011. Actually, it was even worse than 2011. A weak failure that didn't do much on the impacts.

Dylan
Emily 0.1% D It defined the forecast unexpectedly by becoming a TS. It caused about $96,000 of damages from the EF0 tornado that Emily spawned and no deaths. It is not guaranteed to be retired though.

Grade reason: Surprisingly intensify into a TS. But it didn't do much in Florida.

-
Franklin 2.5% B- I think the damage is minimal although damage totals are not out yet but thankfully, it caused no deaths at all. It made landfall in Veracruz as a Category 1 hurricane.

Grade reason: Thankfully, no deaths but still, it made landfall on Mexico.

-
Gert 1% B A forecast definer that somehow killed two people due to rip currents. Gert defined the forecast by instead go to a Category 2 (instead going to Cat. 1).

Grade reason: A fishspinner that killed two people. Is a forecast definer.

-
Harvey 100% A- Now this is definitely going, no doubt. First started off with a weak TS and then reformed and RI'd right into a Category 4. It made landfall on that intensity. This was getting really, really bad for Texas. Even Houston has seen worse (Houston, we have a problem). It's currently on Louisiana. Damages as of now are more than $70 billion making it the third costliest hurricane in the Atlantic. The damage estimates, if they were true, are $160 190 billion. Actually scratch that. Officially, the damages are $198.6 billion!!!!! That's more than Katrina and shattered the record set by Katrina. Also, it was the second-costliest natural disaster of all time. It caused 90 deaths upon Harvey. The extreme flooding occurred in Texas. It dropped 64.58 inches in Nederland, Texas making it the wettest tropical cyclone in the US. He definitely won't back for 2023. No wonder why everyone including me gave this one an 100%.

Grade reason: Was a TS at first but regenerated and became a Cat 4 before landfall.

Hayden, Harry, Hank
PTC Ten N/A Z Grade reason: A complete disgrace when it busted while trying to become Irma. -
Irma 100% A Sigh, it's Harvey's sister. l think this is definitely going, no doubt due to the impacts to Florida and the 95% destruction on Barbuda and Saint Martin. The Caribbean has had enough of the monstrous hurricane. It hit Cuba as a Category 5, one of the two that made landfall in this intensity. The other one is the 1932 Cuba hurricane. It hit Florida causing further destruction. Damages are at more than $30 billion and 55 deaths. The "I" curse continues... I have no words to say but Irma is a catastrophic hurricane. She's already done and she's gone. She won't be back for 2023. Again, no wonder why everyone including me gave this one an 100%.

Grade reason: Was a powerful hurricane that set some of the records.

Isa, Ivy, Iara
Jose 0.01% A+++ Wow, a really long lasting hurricane that almost made it to a Cat 5 (Maybe it will in the post-analysis). Brought rip currents to New England and little impacts way back when it's in the beginnings. Damage is minimal.

Grade reason: A powerful hurricane that is long-lasting. Unfortunately, it briefly threatened the Lesser Antilles and caused 1 death, which makes it miss the S grade.

-
Katia 5% B- Coincidentally made landfall in Mexico that was impacted by an 8.1 magnitude earthquake a day earlier. 3 deaths isn't enough to be retired, though.

Grade reason: Didn't do much damage and only caused 3 deaths in Mexico.

-
Lee​​ 0% A+++ Was a failure at first before it dissipated. It regenerated and redeemed itself by becoming a major hurricane. I'm speechless. Leeboy is happy right now, isn't it. A fish so it will definitely not be going.

Grade reason: A failure, regenerated, and became a major. Was only a small hurricane though. So, enough said.

-
Maria 100% A A devastating hurricane. This was another big threat to the Caribbean. You know what, this is definitely going, no doubt. It destroyed Dominica with mighty force and it stuck Puerto Rico as hard as it can. It knocked out all the power in Puerto Rico. It also suffered human crisis in that country too. Damage total are at >$91 billion and caused at least 78 deaths. This is the second costliest hurricane in the world only behind Katrina. You know, I had enough destruction for that year. And again, no wonder why everyone including me gave this one an 100%.

Grade reason: Intensified to a Category 5 before making landfall in Dominica.

Melanie, Molly, McKenzie
Nate 75% C+ Nicaragua and Honduras were devastated by this storm. But it doesn't look too bad when it made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Except that Biloxi has been devastated. It caused 38 deaths in Central America alone. Luckily, no deaths have occurred in the US. Moving fast before its landfall, this was a little bit of a disaster to Louisiana and other states. It caused >$2.685 billion of damages. That's more than Isaac. Kinda hard to get the retirement, but I give it a 3/4 chance of retirement.

Grade reason: A fast hurricane that is a weak hurricane before its landfall on the Southern U.S. thanks to its landfall in Central America.

Noah, Nigel, Nelson
Ophelia 25% B+ A rare major hurricane that caused damages and deaths to Europe. This set the record for the easternmost major hurricane in the Atlantic. Damages from Great Britain are severe. Hitting Ireland as a powerful extra-tropical cyclone/windstorm (it was the strongest storm to hit Ireland ever), 3 of the 51 people died related to falling trees and an estimated >$71 million of damages were caused by this storm. It was knocked way down from the $1.7 billion of damages. A man and a woman died when trees had fallen into their cars. Another one died while clearing a fallen tree w/ a chainsaw. The rest of the 48 deaths came from a wildfire. Ophelia triggered a wildfire in Portugal and Spain killing the 48 people. Charley of 1986 and Debbie of 1961 both impacted Europe and weren't retired, so I will give this a low chance.

Grade reason: A rare major hurricane. Its remnants caused destruction only.

Odessa, Olive, Ora
Philippe 0.01% F *Sigh*, here goes the hurricane streak. It's all because of Philippe. It was weak, fast, and short lived. The good thing is that it stuck Cuba and Florida as a minimal TS and impacting some others causing minimal damages. It's not going to be retired.

Grade reason: Broke Philippe's and the season's hurricane streak, all because of that system.

-
Rina 0% B- A fish storm that became the first R storm to only peak at a TS and the only name to be used twice.

Grade reason: A TS that tried its best to strengthen. But it's a nice, harmless fish. Also, it redeveloped into Cyclone Numa in the Mediterranean.

-

Chance of being used:

Name that's unused Chance of being used Comments
Sean 20% It will maybe be used for an off-season storm. It still has a chance.
Tammy 1% If we are like 2003 in the off-season, I won't be surprised that it will surpass the S name.
Vince 0.001% Unless the off-season is so active, I really doubt it's going to get to the V name.

Retirement Summary

Definitely Retired (>95%): Harvey, Irma, Maria

Most Likely Retired (70-90%): Nate

Likely Retired (45-65%): None

Likely Not Retired (25-40%): Ophelia

Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Cindy, Don, Katia

Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Arlene, Bret, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Lee, Philippe, Rina

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated by: --68.106.0.77 02:04, December 3, 2017 (UTC))

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

And also, I had enough of this really, really destructive season. Harvey, the costliest hurricane ever, has totaled $198 billion. All together, this season caused more than $368.86 billion of damages making it the costliest season ever. I'm so done with destructive hurricanes. Good riddance! What was in the beginning, a calm season that turned into a devastating season. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:30, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

  • UPDATE: Obviously Harvey's going. Irma looks likely to be retired as well. We'll see what happens. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:40, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0Edit

  • Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
  • Cindy - 5% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
  • Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
  • Emily - 0.5% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere, though there was some minor impacts in Florida. You'll be back in 2023, Emily.
  • Franklin - 7% - Caused some damage, but Mexico has seen worse. In addition, there was not a single fatality from this storm, so I'm sure Franklin won't be retired.
  • Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest Gert will return in 2023.
  • Harvey - 100% - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike. Never mind. This will surely go.
  • Irma - 100% - see Harvey. The damage in Florida and the Leeward Islands is more than enough. It is certain that she won't be back in 2023.
  • Jose - 3% - While it became a threat and later on became the longest-lived storm since Nadine, it minimal impacts. There was one indirect fatality from Jose though, that's why it got 3% from me.
  • Katia - 10% - Franklin 2.0, but a bit worse because of 2 fatalities.
  • Lee - 0.1% - Fail-lee-cia at first, but regenerated and became a major hurricane in the open Atlantic. Lee was a small hurricane, and while it threatened the British Isles as an extratropical system, it had little to no impact/s. So, see you in 2023.
  • Maria - 100% - see Irma. This is Marie 2014's sinister sister in the Atlantic. Probably Dominica and Puerto Rico's worst hurricane. Maria may have also surpassed Harvey as this season's costliest storm.
  • Nate - 50% - The literal 50/50. Isaac-esque impacts in the U.S. ($2.5 billion) with lesser death toll (only 2), but Otto-like impacts in Costa Rica (11 deaths and $185 million damages). Nicaragua and other Central American countries also suffered from this storm: Nate has killed 45 in total, and I am afraid the death toll will still rise. While its impacts in Latin America could have made Nate an easy shoo-in for retirement, its U.S. impacts lowered his retirement chance; thus the chances are 50/50 for now.
  • Ophelia - 40% - Ireland impacts are bad: their worst since Debbie in 1961. However, Debbie was not retired (as a matter of fact, a similar name is on the list next year, but it's Debby instead of Debbie), so I guess Ophelia has a chance of not getting the boot.

Summary:

    • Will surely go - Harvey, Irma, Maria
    • Probably will go - Nate, Ophelia
    • Probably will stay - Katia
    • Most likely will stay - Cindy, Don, Franklin
    • Will definitely stay - everyone else.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:20, October 17, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement OpinionsEdit

  • Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
  • Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
  • Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
  • Don - 25% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists. (replacement picks: Dylan, Dominic, or Dane)
  • Emily - 0% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
  • Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
  • Gert - 0% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
  • Harvey - 100% - Officially the costliest natural disaster in United States, dethroning Katrina. No way he's staying.  (replacement picks: Hunter, Harold, or Harry)
  • Irma - 100%  - I'm left with no words. Only word I'm left with that I can say is catastrophic. Irma's gotta go. (replacement picks: Ivy, Ilyssa,or Imogen)
  • Jose - 0% - He put on a show and likely will become a Cat 5 in post-analysis, but he didn't affect anywhere significantly - thankfully. 
  • Katia - 10% - More or less was a Franklin repeat and could've been much worse.
  • Lee - 0% - Almost failed us, and then came back to surprise us with another session of RI - in the middle of nowhere. 
  • Maria - 100% - Not a chance that Maria stays. 2017 will be the first season since 2008 to see more than two names removed from the naming list as well as the first since 2007 to feature multiple Cat 5's because of this monster.  (replacement picks: Megan, Molly, Malia)
  • Nate - 75% - Damage out of the United States wasn't bad. However, official damage reports in Costa Rica say this was on the same level as Otto. If Otto went, Nate should be bound to go as well. (replacement picks: Noah, Neil, Nolan)
  • Ophelia  - 25% - Seemingly the damage estimate from Ophelia has dropped from the previous estimate. Despite previous reports of damage around $1.8 billion USD, the new estimate of $71 million USD drops Ophelia from being a favorite to be retired. (replacement picks: Odessa, Ora, Olwyn)
  • Philippe - 0% - Broke the hurricane streak, unfortunately, and caused minimal damages on his path. 
  • Rina - 0% - Credit due for become the first "R" name to be used twice, but Rina's coming back. 

​END OF SEASON RETIREMENT PROJECTION: In the spring of 2018, at the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization will retire the names Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate from the rotating naming lists due to the amount of damage and deaths they caused, and they will not be used again to name another Atlantic hurricane. They will be replaced with Hunter, Ivy, Megan, ​and Noah for the 2023 season, respectively.






Owen



21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy100's Retirement predictionsEdit

My turn!

  • Arlene- 0%: Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.
  • Bret- 1%: Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.
  • Cindy- 20%: Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.
  • Don- 1%: You probably won’t be fired, Don. I think you’re staying.
  • Emily- 1%: Minimal impacts.
  • Franklin- 2%: Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.
  • Gert- 1%: Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.
  • Harvey- 100%: With new damage totals out of $198 billion, Harvey is now the costliest tropical cyclone on record. There is absolutely no chance that Harvey will remain on the list. Replacement picks: Hank, Homer or Harry
  • Irma- 100%: Gone, there's no logical way it's going to stay. Massive destruction in the Caribbean, and in Florida. Not as bad as Harvey, but still a terrible storm nonetheless. Irma, or "Irmageddon" as I like to call her, will not be back in 2023. Replacement picks: Ivy or Isa.
  • Jose- 5%: Caused some damage, but very minimal. Stuck around for a while though. We'll likely be seeing him again in 2023. In other words, no way Jose.
  • Katia- 10%: Thankfully, didn't do as much destruction as feared. Unfortunately caused two deaths, but that's not enough for retirement.
  • Lee- 0%:Just one word: awesome. Lee was a jokester. Looked to be weak at first, and then regenerated AND became a Category 3. I'm very happy with Lee's performance. Best part is, he stayed away from land, so he gets a 0%. But due to the fact that he stayed away from land, and got that strong, he gets a gold star. Good hurricane.
  • Maria- 100%: Gone. Without a doubt. Can we get non-destructive storms now? Three hurricanes having 100% chances at retirement is more than enough. Update: Definitely gone, due to the damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico. Update: The situation in Puerto Rico keeps getting worse and worse. Also, I'm hearing some reports that damage costs are rivaling the costs of Harvey and Irma. Again, gone without a doubt. Replacement picks: Megan, Marge, or Molly.
  • Nate- 85%: Damage in Central America is looking worse and worse, and I now think that we will likely have retirement #4 with Nate. Whether this chance goes up to 100 or not depends on what it does to the Gulf Coast. Can this season just end already? Update: Upped to 85% I’m still being slightly conservative, because there might still be a chance that Nate dodges retirement, but I feel like we’ll be tying 1955, 1995, and 2004 with the number of retirements. Replacement picks: Nigel, Nelson, Neil, or Noah (there's a lot of 'N' names to choose from.)
  • Ophelia-25%: Just like with 2005's Ophelia, a recent estimate has knocked damage totals way down. As such, this knocks Ophelia's retirement chances way down. Replacement picks (just in case): Olive, Octavia.
  • Philippe- 0%: Broke the hurricane streak, didn’t do too much damage. Likely staying. I never thought I’d say this, but thanks for staying weak, Philippe.
  • Rina- 0%: Went fishing. She’s staying.

Leeboy100Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictionsEdit

Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here?

  • Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
  • Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
  • Cindy - 7% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
  • Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also highly doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the current U.S. president just so happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count Don as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
  • Emily - 1% - 96,000 USD in damage is very low for a U.S. landfalling TS; couple that with no deaths, and Emily won't go.
  • Franklin - 10% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't too bad.
  • Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
  • Harvey - 100% - Total damage from Harvey is finally out and estimated to be a mind-boggling 198 billion dollars, making Harvey the costliest tropical cyclone ever recorded and the second costliest natural disaster in recorded history, behind only the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, which did 395 billion dollars in damage (2017 USD). With damages that extreme and 90 deaths in the US, Harvey will, without question, be retired after this year.
  • Irma - 100% - Harvey's big sister. The Caribbean islands of Barbuda, St. Martin, Anguilla, St. Barthelemy and some of the Virgin Islands were utterly annihilated by this category 5 monster; Irma caused upwards of 10 billion dollars in damage to those islands alone, making Irma the worst hurricane in terms of both intensity and damage totals to hit the northeastern Lesser Antilles on record. Couple that with a category 5 landfall and widespread damage across northern Cuba and potentially upwards of 50 billion dollars in damage across southwestern Florida, and Irma caused at least 65 billion dollars in total damage, making her the 5th costliest hurricane of all time. And like Harvey, there is absolutely no chance Irma will be reused in 2023.
  • Jose - 4% - Jose caused somewhat extensive flooding and surge damage in parts of southeastern Massachusetts and killed 1 person, but he doesn't hold a candle to the historic impacts caused by his two predecesors or Maria, and he's probably coming back in 2023. With that being said, it looks like 2017 fell short on having 3 consecutive retirements.
  • Katia - 11% - Likely caused similar damage to Franklin, but since Katia killed two people in Mexico (while Franklin killed none), she gets an extra percent, though it's likely still not going.
  • Lee - 0% - Redeemed his initial fail by coming back and becoming a major, but Lee was still a fishspinner.
  • Maria - 100% - Devastating storm, and the costliest Caribbean hurricane on record, eclipsing Irma's 10 billion record set barely two weeks beforehand. Maria rapidly strengthened to a category 5 hurricane when she struck Dominica, becoming the most severe hurricane to hit the island on record, and later hit Puerto Rico as a strong category 4 storm, their worst hit since 1928. With as much as, if not more than, 102 billion dollars in damage to Puerto Rico and 1-2 billion more in Dominica, Maria is behind only Katrina and Harvey as the 3rd costliest hurricane of all time, so there's absolutely no way she won't be retired after this year.
  • Nate - 85% - Damage in Costa Rica was a lot more than I expected it would be, up to 185 million dollars, only slightly less than what Otto of last year did, and the death toll there stands at 11 with 2 missing, Otto killed 10. Nicaragua suffered more fatalities but I don't think they'll request him. However, he only caused around 650 million in damage to the U.S. gulf coast, so the U.S. likely won't request him. But with Otto-esque impacts in Costa Rica, Costa Rica could definitely nomiNATE for retirement like they did to Otto last year, so Nate's got a better chance for retirement than one might think.
  • Ophelia - 10% - I originally had this at 40%, but like her 2005 incarnation, Ophelia's operational estimate of over a billion dollars was knocked down to a mere 70 million in reanalysis, pretty much removing any good chance of this getting retired. Still, I'll give her credit regardless.
  • Philippe - 1% - Broke the hurricane streak and caused minor effects in Florida and Cuba. Nothing serious though.
  • Rina - 0% - Nope, not happening. This caps off this historic season for good.

To sum it up:

  • Definitely retired: Harvey, Irma, Maria
  • Probably retired: Nate
  • Possibly retired: None
  • Probably not retired: Franklin, Katia, Cindy, Jose, Ophelia
  • Not retired: Everyone else

What an unprecedented and devastating season this was, more than 368 billion dollars in damage. Unbelievable. Ryan1000 10:49, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

Isaac's predictionsEdit

Here's mine:

  • Everyone else - 0%.
  • Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.
  • Irma - 100% - For damage in the Caribbean.
  • Maria - 100% - For damage to Dominica and Puerto Rico.

--Isaac829E-Mail 01:44, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Puffle's prediction partyEdit

sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)
(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)
ok credit to everyone who created le colors ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened

  • Arlene: no% - went in a circle and died. the end
  • Bret: 0.01% - is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
  • Cindy: 1% - literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
  • Don: fish% - fish
  • Emily: waitwhat% - stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
  • Franklin: 0.01% - ok
  • Gert: lame% - fish
  • Harvey: 100% - HOLY CRAP HARVEY. I PREDICTED THIS TWO YEARS AGO! (Also people are predicting that Harvey will cost more than Katrina.) Replacement idea: Hal
  • Irma: 100% - Irma killed my best friend Charles. However, the damage isn't looking too catastrophic in some places, but it will likely go, not just for the damage it's done in Florida, but for the damage it's done in the Leeward Islands, and Cuba as well. Replacement idea: Ivy
  • Jose: 5% - Went from threatening, to drunk in 2 days.
  • Katia: 1% - Hit Mexico but did no damage. Earthquake was way worse.
  • Lee: WHAT% - I'M SORRY LEE FOR UNDERESTIMATING YOU
  • Maria: 100% - too damn scary to talk about. Replacement idea: Macy
  • Nate: 50% - No landfall yet, but could do significant damage. Moving at 26 mph according to the 11AM advisory on Oct. 7th. 2fast4me. I put cat2 on here early because everyone knows it'll be a cat2 by the next advisory.
  • Ophelia: ???% - Ophelia has not formed yet.

PuffleTalkBlog 02:00, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Puffle, please give credit to me too because I created the scale colors. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:29, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
And the grades are unnecessary, since it doesn't appear that you are using them... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)----
kek done PuffleTalkBlog

KN2731's storm grades & retirementsEdit

Adding a color scale for the first time.

Grades: A, B, C, D, E, F. These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%.

  • Arlene – grade A, retirement 0%. Made April absolutely amazing.
  • Bret – grade D, retirement 15%. At least it tried to do something before being sheared to shreds in the graveyard.
  • Cindy – grade E, retirement 15%. Didn't look that tropical for most of its lifetime.
  • Don – grade E, retirement 5% due to the media association with Donald Trump. Otherwise this was pathetic; it gets an E for going above 35 knots.
  • Emily – grade D, retirement 10%. It tried, but wasn't particularly memorable.
  • Franklin – grade C, retirement 20% for damage. One of a common type of storm that crosses the Yucatan before rapidly developing in the BoC.
  • Gert – grade B, retirement 5% for the two deaths it caused. Really kept us waiting for a while, but eventually became a C2.
  • Harvey – grade A, retirement 100%. Powerful C4 that would have been great as a fish, but turned into a flooding nightmare for Texas and Louisiana. Really, did you have to give Houston 50 inches of rain?
  • PTC 10 – grade F (and a designation can't be retired). Was tipped to become Irma, but it busted.
  • Irma – grade A, retirement 100%. Well, what can I say. Ridiculously powerful storm, maintained high-C5 winds for an astonishingly long period of time, and looked fabulous on satellite imagery. Unfortunately, this wasn't a fishspinner. Goodbye.
  • Jose – grade B, retirement 10%. Long-lived, powerful storm that thankfully didn't worsen things too much for the Leeward Islands after Irma.
  • Katia – grade C, retirement 5%. Didn't look too bad for landfall as a C2. Grade is C because it scuppered its RI phase.
  • Lee – grade A, retirement 0%. Rose up from the dead to become a major fishspinner. Well done, Lee.
  • Maria – grade A for the intensity, retirement 100%. Nice sub-910 mb pressure and excellent satellite presentation, but you're definitely going after Dominica and Puerto Rico.
  • Nate – grade C, retirement 60%. Damage in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and the USA don't look too good, with floods in Costa Rica termed the worst in recent years. $650 million in the USA probably won't warrant retirement there though.
  • Ophelia – grade A (wow there's a lot of them this year), retirement 25%. Nice record-breaking northeasterly major, but Spain and Portugal suffered wildfires thanks to Ophelia's inflow that killed over 50. Thankfully Ireland didn't get hit too badly.
  • Philippe – grade E, retirement 5%. Pathetic TS that looked as bad as Colin 2016. Was this even tropical?
  • Rina – grade B, retirement 0%. Moderate TS while tropical, but gets a high grade for spawning Medicane Numa later on. Fatalities from Numa probably won't count towards Rina's retirement though.

Season Summary:
High (70%-100%): Harvey, Irma, Maria
Moderate (40%-69%): Nate
Low (20%-39%): Franklin, Ophelia

Best Storm of 2017: Lee

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 04:45, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Ummm... it's Colin from 2016 not 2015. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
Thanks for pointing it out. Shows how forgettable Colin was... ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:50, November 17, 2017 (UTC)

Jdcomix's predictionsEdit

  • Arlene - Grade A, 0% - Fish storm, but in April. Awesome storm.
  • Bret - Grade C, 5% - You tried. Only chance is if an island country requests this for retirement, which I doubt.
  • Cindy - Grade D, 5% - Near hurricane strength storm in June, so I'll give it some credit for that.
  • Don - Grade E, 10% - Only reason I give this a higher chance of retirement than the others so far is due to the name being the same as the current President, but even that's a stretch. Pathetic storm either way.
  • Emily - Grade D, 5% - Hit Florida with some minor impacts, nothing really to warrant retirement, though.
  • Franklin - Grade B, 10% - Giving this a low chance of retirement because there were surprisingly no deaths in Mexico, unlike Earl last year.
  • Gert - Grade B, 0% - Fish storm, but the first Cat 2 of the year and an at an unusually high latitude.
  • Harvey - Grade A-, 100% - Bye Felicia! Deducting points due to destruction. Replacement name hope: Hunter
  • PTC 10 - Grade F, 0% - Can't be retired, would have become Irma but busted.
  • Irma - Grade A+, 100% - Incredible storm, but knocked it down below an S rank because of the utter devastation caused all over the basin. Replacement name hope: Ivy
  • Jose, Grade S, 0% - Near category 5 that didn't cause any damage, just how I like it.
  • Katia -  Grade C, 5% - Not too much damage, but did kill 2 people.
  • Lee - Grade B+, 0%. Failicia at first, but regenerated and became the fifth (!) major hurricane of the season. Fish storm.
  • Maria - Grade A-, 100%. Do I need to explain what happened to Dominica and Puerto Rico? They're practically 100% destroyed. Deducting some points because of destruction. Replacement name hope: Marietta
  • Nate - Grade B, 60%. This one was interesting for the Gulf Coast. 60% chance right now because it's killed more people in Central America than Otto which was retired. Replacement name hope: Neville
  • Ophelia - Grade S, 60%. Shocking and exceptionally rare storm. Significant damage in Europe. Do they even have a delegate at the naming conference next spring? Replacement name hope: Olive

Jdcomix (talk) 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Dylan's predictionsEdit

  • Arlene: 0% - In terms of impacts, this was nothing more than April showers over the open Atlantic, but as only the second purely tropical Atlantic storm ever recorded in the month, this was a welcome surprise.
  • Bret: 5% - Cool to see something so far south so early in the season, but this storm was low on impact, and I'm having a hard time seeing how Bret won't be back in 2023.
  • Cindy: 10% - Standard-issue early-season Gulf Coast TS.
  • Don: 2% - Ryan said it best, though should Don get the boot for political reasons, I'll second the calls in #Replacement names for my name to take its place ;) (I must admit that I blushed a bit when I saw them — thanks, fellas!)
  • Emily: 2% - Surprise formation, meager effects.
  • Franklin: 10% - That death toll (or lack thereof) is a very pleasant surprise. This gets as high as 10% from me because I don't buy the idea of a hurricane of any strength hitting Mexico without dealing some extent of damage.
  • Gert: 1% - For the rip current fatalities. Cool storm to watch, otherwise.
  • Harvey: 100% - There's no logical way it won't happen.
  • Irma: 100% - See Harvey.
  • Jose: 6% - Relieved that not only was Jose far kinder to the Lessers than was initially feared he would be, but he wasn't that bad for the U.S. East Coast either.
  • Katia: 11% - Though Katia unfortunately did not repeat the non-existent death toll of Franklin, she was otherwise scarcely different in terms of impacts.
  • Lee: 0% - Better luck in 2023, mate :/ Or in a few days, that too!
  • Maria: 100% - See Irma.
  • Nate: 65% - I'm going to be a bit more conservative than Ryan, but otherwise I think he pretty much nailed it. This was a re-Otto for Costa Rica in terms of impacts there, and while the US impacts would probably not be enough to secure Nate as a retirement candidate on their own, they do add some frosting to the cake, so to speak.
  • Ophelia: 45% - This is a tough call. Though the wildfires on the Iberian peninsula were exaggerated by Ophelia's winds, the fact that they were already ongoing before the storm passed by may possibly count against Ophelia's chances of retirement. Conversely, while there is no precedent for storm names being retired due to extratropical impacts in Europe, the facts that a.) warnings for the UK and Ireland were already in effect while Ophelia was still tropical (due to the system's unusual proximity at the time of ET transition), and b.) Ophelia was a particularly severe storm for Ireland, give Ophelia's chances more of a boost than would typically be the case for a former Atlantic tropical cyclone hitting Europe while extratropical. On balance, I think the fact that nearly all of Ophelia's impacts were either while the storm was extratropical or, in the case of the Iberian fires, completely indirect, weighs enough against Ophelia's chances of retirement to bring them just below the 50-50 mark, but I won't be surprised if Ophelia does indeed get the boot.
  • Philippe: 1% - Was more notable for feeding energy into the extratropical storm that rocked the northeastern US, worsening impacts there, than it was for its own effects as a separate entity.
  • Rina: No% - Not happenin'.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!Edit

  • Arlene: 0%, cool to watch her progress, especilly being all that far up north and the fact she was about in April, but see you in 2023!
  • Bret: 1%, Not sufficient/notable enough to warrant retirement.
  • Cindy: 5%, Ditto. Made landfall in the same place as Harv though. Forgettable storm.
  • Don: 2%, Ditto, but I don't see him going just because of all the Trump memes/media attention this storm got. SAD!
  • Emily: 2%, Ditto, just forgettable.
  • Frankie: 10%, Clumsy, caused a bit of damage but the good thing is that he was kind; no deaths! Just be careful next time, eh?
  • Gert: 5%, Knocked at my window when she arrived in Europe but apart from the surfing deaths, she wasn't that notable.
  • Harvey: 100%, THIS WILL BE GOING, NO DOUBT, UNLESS THE NHC IS ON A HIGH/ON DRUGS/DRUNK. 
  • Irma: 100%, DITTO! THIS MEGA-MONSTROUS STORM IS DOWN IN THE HISTORY BOOKS! THERE'S NO WAY THIS WOMAN IS COMING BACK! SAY HELLO TO IMOGEN 2023!
  • Jose: 10%, wasn't as bad as he expected. Just another little prankster.
  • Kat: 15%, more brutal version of Frankie.
  • Lee: 0% Keep 🅱ranking us next time, Lee, you little dingus!
  • Maria: 100%, DO I NEED TO EXPLAIN?
  • Nate: 75% Reported that this was worse than Otto for the countries affected but who knows?
  • Ophelia: 30%, I don't think Ireland will submit a case for Ophelia to get retired despite her being quite memorable (and strange she was) given from past experience of hurricane remnants coming to Europe. (And thanks for the 2pm orange sky, it was totally lit!)
  • Philippe and Rina: 0% LOL

SUPREME COLGATE CREW 15:23, November 27, 2017 (UTC)

Whiplash's predictionsEdit

  • Harvey: 100% - Obviously.
  • Irma: 100% - Obviously.
  • Maria: 100% - Obviously.
  • Nate: 60% - I'm really not sure what to rate Nate typically historical tropical storms in this area have caused a lot of deaths without being retired (i.e. Matthew in 2010) however after having Otto retired last year primarily due to effects on Costa Rica I'm not sure whether Nate would get the boot or not and whether Otto was retired primarily because of his strength. I think it could go either way but I will stick on the side of not being retired as his impacts on the U.S. which would have made the storm a more likely candidate for retirement were not as bad as originally feared, also this storm very likely could be overshadowed by the big 3 monsters of the year. With a bit more perspective and now with US landfall and totals I think a retirement is slightly more likely than not but I still wouldn't say it is a guarantee.
  • Ophelia: 30% - Killed 3 people in Ireland and killed a fair few in what is being considered the worst storm to hit the country in almost 50 years. Ireland has never requested a retirement for a system so this could be a wildcard. Also contributed its winds to spreading wildfires in Spain and Portugal which killed more than 30 people. Has a shot, but a long one.
  • Katia: 5% - Simply because Mexico retired Ingrid in 2013 because she hit on the same day as Manuel even though she wasn't that noteworthy by Mexican storm standards and Katia happened to hit on the same day as a big earthquake which might cause her to get retired.
  • Everyone else: See you in 2023!

--Whiplash (talk) 04:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

TrueDashX (Fred)'s predictionsEdit

Note: Underlined name indicates an active storm.


  • Arlene “Surprise” | 0% | Rare early-season fishspinning storm that beat Ana (2003)'s record for the strongest April storm, see you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: She was a rare April storm.)

  • Bret “Fast” | 0.5% | Beat another Ana (1979)'s record for the earliest system developed in the MDR. 0.5% chance is for 2 deaths and $3 million damages. But we'll most likely see you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: He’s forward speed was very fast (30 mph), and only lived for a day.)

  • Cindy “Ordinary” | 5% | 10th wettest storm in MS but overshadowed by Harvey. I doubt that she's going to be retired, so see you in 2023! (Nickname explanation: Although she’s the 10th wettest in the state of MS, it doesn’t make her stand out from other storms.)

  • Don “Nada” | 0.5% | Bret v2 except that he's much weaker. Could be retired due to political reasons but I don't see that happening. (Nickname explanation: He barely had any impacts, forgettable.)

  • Emily “Wut” | 0% | She's just a fail, and she's been a fail since 2011. (Nickname explanation: Storm that popped up from nowhere, and just… gone.)

  • Franklin “First” | 5% | First hurricane of the season and the first Franklin that became a hurricane. Thankfully there's no deaths reported in Mexico, but the pictures of the aftermath seems bad, but not as bad as what the big 3 did this year. (Nickname explanation: First hurricane of the season and the first Franklin that became a hurricane.)

  • Gert “Fish” | 0% | A storm with an ugly name that defied the forecast and stay as a fishspinner in her entire life. 2 indirect deaths was tragic but it will not convince anyone to retire the name. See you in 2023! (Nickname explanation: She’s a fishspinner, duh.)

  • Harvey “Floody” | 100% | He is one of the beasts to hit Texas (Along with Galveston 1900, Bret'99, and Ike'08) and will definitely be retired. Plus, Harvey is yet another old name so I wish that the WMO will replace him with some newer names. (Nickname explanation: Obviously, he drowned coastal Texas.)

  • Irma “Record-breaker” | 100% | She was destructive, totally rekt this year's typhoon season, which is known to be notoriously active and intense, but turned very sloppy this year. Still, I pray for all the victims that got affected by Irma, I know this is a extremely disastrous year, but we will rebuild and live on! (Nickname explanation: Just look at how many records that she broke.)

  • José “Longevity” | 0% | Powerful and long-lasting storm that stayed his entire life as a fishspinner, and I feel that this storm is somewhat similar to typhoon Noru, also happened this year: first, they're all long-lasting storms, second, they are both pretty intense, and finally, they both looped during their lifetime, but unfortunately, Noru eventually hit Japan. See you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: He’s long-lasting.)

  • Katia “Franklin II” | 10% | Another forecast-defier that became a cat. 2 although initially thought to be only a strong tropical storm. But she unexpectedly fell apart before landfall, eventually causing 2 deaths, but it could've been much worse. But I doubt that she'll go. (Nickname explanation: She’s track and intensity is somewhat similar to Franklin.)

  • Lee “Awesome” | 0% | An absolutely amazing forecast defier that became Harvey's fishspinning version. Initially thought to be a failure, but he never gave up. I personally think that NHC underestimated Lee's actual strength considering his impressive satellite appearance. (Nickname explanation: A major, a fishspinner, and redeemed itself from failing. Just awesome!)

  • María “Irma Plus” | 100% | She left me with no words. Explosively intensified into a monster cat. 5 from a tropical storm in a little more than a day (30 hours). She is definitely going after this season, and would remain infamous in the coming years due to the storm itself and the controversy surrounding the irresponsible action of Pres. Trump. What's weird is that before the season, I had a dream about Maria becoming the most intense storm of the season. Anyway, it's pretty sad to see a sweet name like Maria was being used on a destructive cyclone. (Nickname explanation: She was similar to Irma, but was stronger.)

  • Nate “Rushed” | 55% | He's probably going to be retired due to the death toll (45) and the damages (2.6 Billion). If he’s retired, we'll have 2 pairs of consecutive names retired this year: Harvey and Irma, Maria, Nate and Ophelia. It's sad to see another good name being retired. (Nickname explanation: Fastest moving hurricane in GoMex.)

  • Ophelia “Weirdo” | 50% | Always reminds me of The Lumineers' song. Unlike other storms, she preferred to go to Ireland and drink beer other than to go to FL to enjoy the beach. She was a very impressive hurricane, not only that she continued the hurricane streak, she also broke many records, a very Vince-ish storm! Unfortunately she had killed 42 and caused 1 Billion damages as of now, so there’s a decent chance of retirement. (Nickname explanation: Aimed at europe, the easternmost major recorded, and tied the hurricane streak.)

  • Failippe | 0% | Colin'16 V2 and a fail. Ended both Philippe's hurricane streak and the 2017's hurricane streak.
  • Rina | N/A | It will most likely form from the future disturbance in SW Caribbean.

  • Sean | N/A | I hope that we could get to this name this year.

  • Tammy | N/A | She deserves another chance this year, after the fail in 2005.

  • Vince | N/A | It will be remarkable if this forms, because then the name will be used twice (previously in 2005), also the season will be insanely active.

  • Whitney | N/A | I will be extremely astonished if she forms.

  • Alpha & Beyond | N/A| If one of them ever form this season, it will left me with no words…

In summary

Likely to be retired - Harvey, Irma, Maria,

Possibly retired - Nate, Ophelia

Least likely to be retired - Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Katia, Philippe

Definity going to stay - Arlene, Gert, Jose, Lee



Miscellaneous

P.S. I don’t know if anyone noticed, but...

...Harvey means “battle worthy”...

...Irma means “war goddess”...

...and Maria means “Rebellious”...

...it seems like that hurricanes really lived up to their names this year.

That’s all for now folks!

Fr3d (talk) 14:21, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

Prism55's retirement predictionsEdit

Thought I'd do this prediction/retirement thing...

Retirement predictions:


  • Arlene - 0% - April storm, cool. Still, never touched land, so it will be back in 2023 (Note: In 2023, Arlene will be used for the twelfth time. It is the most frequently used storm name in the Atlantic.)
  • Bret - 0.01% - The only interesting thing about Bret was that he made landfall at a very low latitude. Otherwise, weak and boring storm.
  • Cindy - 5% - Caused minor damage but otherwise eh. Still, 2 deaths and some damage... small chance of being retired.
  • Don - bad% - no
  • Emily - 2% - Minor damage but not going. The real question is, why wasn't Emily retired after 2005?
  • Franklin - 5% - First hurricane of the season, very exciting. Still, caused only minor damage and no deaths. Franklin will return again in 2023.
  • Gert - 0.1% - Category 2, but never touched land. Gert is staying for 2023.
  • Harvey - 100% - Flooded and destroyed everything, definitely going - Possible replacement: Hadrian (eh)
  • Irma - 100% - Similar to Harvey, but more powerful and affected different places. Still, Irma is going. No way she stays. - Possible replacement: Ivy (I like this name)
  • Jose - 2% - Moved away from the Lesser Antilles in the last second. Good, very good. Killed one person, but most likely staying.
  • Katia - 10% - Franklin but with 3 deaths. Probably not retired.
  • Lee - good% - Lee was a prankster. First a weak tropical storm, worse that Don. Then, Lee regenerated and became a Category 3. Lee was definitely a pleasant surprise. Still, a fish, so it's coming back in 2023.
  • Maria - 100% - uUUUUUUHHHH another Category 5 and another Category 5 landfall. Possibly the second costliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Caused a crisis in Puerto Rico. Maria was a bad girl, and her name will be removed. - Possible replacement: Molly (This is a good name), Melanie (Don and Melanie so funny haha)
  • Nate - 65% - This caused surprisingly many deaths, and the damage in the US is lower than expected. Still, two and a half billion is a lot, and when we add the 45 deaths, this has a decent retirement chance. Could be overshadowed by the three worst hurricanes of the season though... - Possible replacement: Nick (england is my city)
  • Ophelia - 45% - Caused some damage to the UK and Ireland, and killed over 50 people, although most of those indirectly. Could go, or might not... - Possible replacement: Odilia (2014's Pacific Odile, but female?...), Olympia (idk)
  • Philippe - 0.1% - This thing broke the hurricane streak so far, and will most likely break it even when dissipated. Minimal impacts, won't get retired.
Formation predictions (IMO):


  • Rina - 85% - Will most likely form
  • Sean - 50% - Smaller chance, but still probable.
  • Tammy - 30% - Chances are this won't form.
  • Vince - 10% - Most likely not.
  • Whitney - 1% - Probably won't get as far as here.
  • Anything in Greek - 0% - No
TLDR:


  • Definitely retired (>95%): Harvey, Irma, Maria
  • Most likely retired (60-94%): Nate
  • Possibly/possibly not retired (40-59%): Ophelia
  • Most likely not retired (5-39%): Cindy, Franklin, Katia
  • Definitely not retired (<5%): Arlene, Bret, Don, Emily, Gert, Jose, Lee, Philippe

the end. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:35, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

IbAHAn's Retirement Candidates List:Edit

The list isn't completed yet, I'll work more on it in the near future.

Tropical Storm Arlene: 0%: April surprise that went in a circle and stayed out at sea.

Tropical Storm Bret: 1%: Sped so fast it disappeared before you could blink. It did cause some problems near South America, though.

Tropical Storm Cindy: 4%: Large tropical storm that caused flooding issues in Louisiana and other places as well. This had a decent chance to go, but after what three future hurricanes did, this name will not be retired.

Tropical Depression Four: N/A%: Not a named storm due to how bad the wind shear and dry air were.

Tropical Storm Don: 1%: Repeat of Bret that will be seen in 2023.

Tropical Storm Emily: 2%: Hit near Tampa, Florida, but will stay for 2023.

Category 1 Franklin: 10%: First hurricane of the season. It hit Mexico and barely did any damage, especially after what we saw three hurricanes do. This was practically Earl's less crazy brother.

Category 2 Gert: 1%: Pretty hurricane that stayed good and never really attacked land. A few people did die, though. Otherwise, good hurricane.

CAHARVEY: GONE%: UGLY hurricane that became HORRIBLE and viciously attacked Texas and Louisiana, but ESPECIALLY Texas! 64 INCHES OF RAIN AT NEDERLAND!? AT LEAST 40 INCHES OF RAIN IN HOUSTON!? THIS storm went TOO FAR! And do you think that's it? DO YOU THINK THAT'S IT!? This hurricane caused at most near $200 BILLION in damage! That will make Katrina look like nothing! What's more, is that people still need help, and their homes HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN FIXED YET! That goes for Rockport, which could literally become a GHOST TOWN if people leave it be, Port Aransas, where the storm also passed over, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Galveston, and Houston and the surrounding areas. This BEHEMOTH also caused a levee breach in Colombia Lakes, and forced people to let water out of the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs so water wouldn't spill from the top. Guess what, water spilled from the top of the Addicks Reservoir anyway! Multiple bayous and rivers saw RECORD high water levels! Need I say more? Bad hurricane! This name is gone, no questions asked. Goodbye, Harvey.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten: N/A%: So lazy, it didn't even get named.

More will come later. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 02:20, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

​Send Help's Retirement PredictionsEdit

Figured I'd do one of these as my first edit on this wiki.

  • Arlene - 0% - She formed in April, and that's all she'll be remembered for.
  • Bret - 0.1% - Oh well, you tried. Also, first PTC.
  • Cindy - 5% - A rather generic storm that few will remember after what happened later this season.
  • Don - 6% - [Insert Trump joke here]
  • Emily - 0.0001% - Still recovering from her '05 snub.
  • Franklin - 5% - First hurricane of the season (and the 10 hurricane streak). He thankfully only caused light damage no deaths in Mexico and Belize.
  • Gert - 0% - Neat northern latitude Cat 2. No land impacts aside from a two unfortuante rip current deaths, but nowhere near enough for her to be retired.
  • Harvey - Bye% - He was the costliest tropical cyclone of all time, the wettest tropical cyclone in US history, and caused 90 deaths. Goodbye and good riddance.
  • Irma - Seeya% - After scraping a few Carribean islands into the ocean and slamming into Cuba and Florida, killing over 100 people in the process. She'll definitely be joining Harvey in the history books.
  • Jose - 3% - He threatened to recreate the Luis-Marilyn situation with Irma, but thankfully didn't come to fruition. Instead, we got a powerful borderline-Cat. 5 hurricane that took one too many shots of tequila and went a bit loopy (i'm so sorry), before stalling off the New England coast. One unfortunate death, but overall a major improvement compared to the last two storms.
  • Katia - 10% - Basically just a Cat. 2 Franklin with three deaths. She gets points for being of of three active hurricanes at the same time alongside Irma and Jose, though.
  • Lee - AMAZING% - This is hands-down my favorite Atlantic storm this year, and possibly my favorite storm overall (hard to decide between this and Otis and Jova hahaha). However, since he was a fishspinner, he’ll be around for 2023.
  • MariaHasta la vista% - Sigh. Now we move from a great storm to a horrible one. She obliterated Dominica and knocked out Puerto Rico’s entire power grid, killing who-knows-how-many in the process. Needless to say, she won’t dodge retirement this time around.
  • Nate - 75% - His Damage total and death toll in Costa Rica rivaled that of Otto’s from last year, but his US impact was more akin to Hermine’s. Costa Rica will most likely nominate him, but if they don’t, he has no chance of retirement, as his US impact was vastly overshadowed by not one, but three other hurricanes.
  • Ophelia - 50% - A surprise far-east major that gave Ireland a whack as an extratropical cyclone. Europe has never retired a tropical or extratropical cyclone for impacts actually in Europe before, but the damage and death toll for this storm may make them consider it. For now, I’ll leave this as a 50/50.
  • Failippe - terrible% - You had one job Phillippe, and that was to be a hurricane force fishspinner. And you failed. Miserably. Not to mention, you looked horrible on satellite imagery. Please redeem yourself in 2023. 

​More additions will be made, if needed. Send Help Please (talk) 04:33, November 3, 2017 (UTC)Send Help

Cane Harvey retirement predictionsEdit

I put cane Harvey because there was a Harvey in the season

Retierment colors: 0% (1% and 5%) 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 50% 60% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99% 100%

  • Arlene - 0% - Went into a circle and died
  • Bret - 5% - Caused some deaths and damage but not likely going to be retired
  • Cindy - 10% - Spawned tornados, but thats not enough to justify retirement.
  • Don - 20% - I dont think it will be retired, but it may get the adolph/isreal/isis treatment, but that was all the eastern pacific so the atlantic is a different story.
  • Emily - 1% - Its gonna be in 2023
  • Franklin - 5% - mexico usually does not retire names. so this is coming in 2023.
  • Gert - 1% - this only caused 2 deaths. however this storm gets points for a amazing shape at peak intensity.
  • Harvey - 100% - THIS BETTER BE RETIRED UNLESS THE NHC HAS SCHIZROPHRENIA! WILL THIS STORM DODGE RETIREMENT? THIS STORM CAUSED MITCH LIKE FLOODING WITH UP TO 64 INCHES! AND U KNOW WHAT? THIS BECAME THE COSTLIEST STORM EVER! NOW KATRINA IS A NORMAL STORM! GOODBYE HARVEY, GOOD RIDDANCE!
  • Irma - 100% - HELL NO, SHE AINT COMIN BACK FOR 2023! NOT ONLY WE HAD THE SECOND DESTRUTIVE STORM IN A ROW BUT THIS STORM LITERALLY KILLED BARBUDA AND ST MARTIN! WHAT ELSE? 5TH COSTLIEST ON RECORD! GOODBYE HARVEY AND IRMA!
  • Jose - 0% - this was cool. it nearly worsened effects for the lessers, but it missed and went on to becoming the longest lived storm of the season.
  • Katia - 5% - see franklin
  • Lee - best% - this is definitely the best storm of the season. spawned, died, and nobody thought it would regenerate. but it defied all forcasts and regenerated becoming a epic winning major hurricane!
  • Maria - 100% - HOLY CRAP MARIA. I PREDICTED A FOLLOW UP TO MATTHEW. a death toll of up to 1000 and costs of up to $103 billion will DEFINITELY not keep maria. and if they do not retire the name, WE WILL ALL BE TRIGGERED.
  • Nate - 50% - worse than otto damages, but the problem is either otto was retired because it was the first to cross the pacific or they forgot about earl.
  • Ophelia - 25% - i am being less confident about retirement. damage dropped all the way down to 17 million. but what is keeping it at 25% is the death toll.
  • Failippe - failicia% (5%)-

sucked. failed to become a hurricane force fishspinner, and kept the tie of most hurricanes in a row

now, let me give this next one the hate ive been saving for all this time... I cant, I CANT, I just cant tell how much I TRULY DESPISE THIS STORM! WHY ISNT IT THAT HE COULD HAVE BECAME A HURRICANE FORCE FISHSPINNER INSTEAD OF A FAIL STRIKE! JUST WHY? this isnt any bad storm, this is THE ULTIMATE failicia. this is THE storm that made me ALL respect for Philippe storms... for just one storm. But the worst part, THE TRUE END TO TOP OFF OCTOBER OF 2017. PHILIPPE FINALLY DECIDES TO DISSIPATE, AND BROKE THE HURRICANE STREAK. WE DIDNT DESERVE THIS, WE WANTED A HURRICANE FORCE FISHSPINNER, AND WE COULD HAVE BROKE THE TIE FOR THE RECORD. THIS IS TRULY MY LEAST FAVORITE STORM OF THE SEASON, IT INFURIATES ME VERY MUCH.

  • Rina - 10% - might get a chance of retirement for either spawning a medicane or the damage of numa

Cane Harvey (Harvey) 19:01, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement predictions from NutEdit

Thought I'd get this done as my first edit on the wiki. 

  • Arlene - 0% - Very cool to see an April storm. However, being a fishspinner means she'll be back for 2023 for her twelfth usage in the Atlantic.
  • Bret - 1% - Again, cool to see a storm forming at such low latitude. Also first PTC of the season. Minimal damage, returning in 2023.
  • Cindy - 10% - Responsible for spawning tornadoes, however her impact was overshadowed by Harvey.
  • Don 5% - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Slight retirement chance due to political reasons, but I doubt it.
  • Emily 1% - Nothing serious so returning in 2023, although she should've been retired after 2005.
  • Franklin 10% - First of the ten consecutive hurricanes. Franklin did do a fair bit, but luckily no fatalities have occurred.
  • Gert - 1% - Northern latitude C2. Two deaths have occurred from rip currents sadly, but not enough for retirement.
  • Harvey - 100% - Dethroned Katrina as the costliest tropical cyclone. Also the wettest tropical cyclone to hit the US. With over $198 billion in damages, Harvey obviously won't be dodging retirement. (Replacement name pick: Henley)
  • Irma - 100% - Beast that ravaged through the Antilles into Florida. Wiped out Barbuda's entire population. Irma also has to go, which would mean that this season would very likely be the first since 2005 to see two consecutive names retired. (Replacement name pick: Ivy)
  • José - 1% - Briefly threatened to recreate the Luis-Marilyn situation, but thankfully didn't happen as he turned away last minute. Longest lasting tropical cyclone since Nadine in 2012. José will most likely return in 2023.
  • Katia - 15% - Struck Mexico days after a strong earthquake, which gives her a slight higher chance than Franklin. Although, retirement is unlikely.
  • Lee - 0% - Originally a fail, but then regenerated to become a C3 fishspinner.
  • María - 100% - Another monster that devastated Dominica and put Puerto Rico in a humanitarian crisis. Not to mention their power grid was broken as well. Maria needs to go after the season, if not, then I'll faint. (Replacement name pick: Martha)
  • Nate - 60% - His Central American impacts will most likely warrant retirement. If Otto got retired after the previous season, then I'm pretty sure Nate could be off the lists too, since he's pretty much a re-Otto for Costa Rica. His US impacts were overshadowed though, so retirement is not certain. (Replacement name pick: Neil)
  • Ophelia25% - Like in 2005, reanalysis knocked Ophelia's estimated damage totals to $71 million. Retirement is now looking unlikely, but can't be ruled out. Also, she was the easternmost major hurricane on record. (Replacement name pick just in case: Orla)
  • Philippe - 0.1% - Broke the hurricane streak, thanks to this fail. Didn't even look tropical.
  • Rina - 0.1% - Harmless fishspinner while tropical. Spawned Medicane Numa in her afterlife, however Numa's impacts wouldn't really count towards Rina's retirement though.

Nutfield001 (talk) 03:24, December 2, 2017 (UTC)

Replacement namesEdit

Potentially for DonEdit

Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:

  • Dylan
  • Diego
  • Damien
  • Drake
  • Derek
  • Dale
  • Dexter
  • Drew
  • Darren
  • Daryl

Post below which two names you like. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:
  • Dusty
  • Dominic
  • Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
  • Dante
  • Devan
Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

I doubt that this will receive that treatment. But if it does, why not Dylan? 😝 Other names in Ryan and Andrew's list are also quite fitting. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

This hurricane season will not be remembered for its "D" storm,I can't imagine a retirement of the name.12.144.5.2 04:30, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

For HarveyEdit

Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names.

  • Hannibal
  • Hans
  • Hadrian
  • Handel
  • Hank
  • Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
  • Harris/Harrison
  • Hayden
  • Heath
  • Heinrich
  • Helmut
  • Henrik
  • Herb/Herbert
  • Horacio
  • Howard/Howie
  • Huey
  • Hugh
  • Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
  • Hyacinth - My personal fave

Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. TG 5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank, Homer or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. (Update as of 9/18: I'll add Homer to my picks. It would be fun if Harvey and Maria will be replaced by Homer and Marge. Sadly, Lisa is on List II. Maggie and Bart will follow soon.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:
  • Habib
  • Hackett
  • Haddon
  • Hadley
  • Hadrian
  • Hafiz
  • Hagan
  • Hakim
  • Hakan
  • Hal
  • Haines
  • Haile
  • Hagley
  • Hallam
  • Halstead
  • Hampton
  • Hardy
  • Hardik
  • Harald
  • Harley
  • Henrik
  • Helmut
  • Hendy
  • Henning
  • Henley
  • Hiroshi
  • Hilton
  • Homer (LOL)
  • Hopinks
  • Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
  • Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
  • Hussain
  • Hyatt
  • Hymen
  • Hyde
  • Herrick
  • Huey
  • Hurst
  • Henrietto (LOL)
  • Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
  • Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT'S HENRIETTE AND I'M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

If it's hans atlantic is frozen confirmed Hal is the best name for a Harvey replacement. Hurricane Hal, I love it PuffleTalkBlog 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Harrison is my pick. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Going to go with Hans, Homer, or Hunter (which would be really funny). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

If we had a Hurricane Horton...who would hear it?12.144.5.2 14:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Don't think Hunter will be chosen though. :P Anyways, I like Hannibal (sounds epic), Harris(on), Herbert and Hyacinth. Hardy, Habib, Halstead, Hampton, Harley, Henley, Hilton, Hyde, Herrick and Huey are fine as well. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

For IrmaEdit

We all know Harvey is going to be retired, but Irma is a certain retirement candidate as well, due to her unprecedented devastation in the Caribbean islands and significant destruction in Florida. So, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Irma? Here's a few of my suggestions:

  • Ian(n)a
  • Iara
  • Ina
  • Idette
  • Inga
  • Ilsa
  • Idina
  • Ivy
  • Idona
  • Idra
  • Isha
  • Ignacia
  • Ila
  • Isa
  • Iora

What are your thoughts? Ryan1000 07:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Irina, Ivy, Isa or Inga are my picks. Ilsa sounds like Elsa (which replaced Erika). Ignacia can also be used, though it is similar to Ignacio (which is being used in EPac). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
My pick to replace Irma will be Ivy. Owen 08:44, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
Added Isa. Ignacia is close to Ignacio, though we saw Martin replace Matthew earlier this year while a variation of Martin (Marty) was in the EPac, so Ignacia and Ignacio being used simultaneously isn't comletely out of the question. Ryan1000 08:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
Inga was used in 1961 and 1969, the latter of which was the third-longest lasting TC in the North Atlantic basin. My suggestions are Ilana and Iora, though my personal favourite is Ivy (even though it's already been used 11 times in the WPac and five more times in the SHem). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
Take note that Irma was also used in the WPac for a number of storms, including a C5 in 1971 and a strong C4 in 1981 that killed hundreds in the Philippines (it wasn't retired after that though). So if it seems that (as if) NHC got Irma from the WPac lists, then why not Ivy? However, Irma was used in 1978 in the Atlantic; following that pattern, Inga can be a possible candidate as replacement for Irma. Then again, NHC is somehow leaning towards names that are more current/timely (or even trendy), i.e. Elsa for Erika, Julian for Joaquin, Imelda for Ingrid, Sara for Sandy, Ian for Igor, Martin for Matthew, Owen for Otto, etc. Anyway, this is just in preparation for the impacts of Irma in the northern Lessers & the rest of the Antilles (and eventually U.S.), who knows, Irma might change her mind and turn away from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmmm. Ike......? Stacy54

Lol. That made me laugh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I like Idina. It adds to the recent trend of Frozen themed names, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Isa, Ivy, and Iara are my picks. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:33, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Maybe I'll choose Ivy, Isa, Iora, or Irina. Ilsa sounds too similar to Elsa (to be used in 2021). We are kinda running out of "I" names due to the curse... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Ivy was retired as a typhoon name after a very strong one.Doesn't retiring a name in one basin and then using it in another sort of defeat the purpose?12.144.5.2 15:57, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Some extra names to consider, I personally am a big fan of the next name being Ivy or Inga since Inga has already been used before and not retired.
  • Ibolya - Fairly common female Hungarian name somewhat popular as a landed immigrant name as well.
  • Iggy - Usually thought of this as a male name but there are a few female instances of it too (Iggy Azalea).
  • Ilse
  • Iman
  • Immaculata
  • Imogene
  • Indira
  • Innocence
  • Irina
  • Isla - This has been an increasingly popular name lately.
  • Ivana/Ivanka - (Make a Trump themed list. ;))
  • Ixia
  • Izzy

Again I am rooting for Ivy as the next I name. (If we can use mythological names as well then Io would also possibly be on this list.) --Whiplash (talk) 16:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I am going for either Ivy or Imogen. In my opinion, Ivana is too close to Ivan. Izzy is a variant of Isabel. I also would pick Iola, Idette, or even Inga. TG 2017 20:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
12, that's not unheard of; in the Atlantic, Celia, Dora, and Hilda were all retired on the old naming lists and all 3 of those names are in use in the Eastern Pacific today, though none have been retired since. Also, Typhoon Ike was retired after 1984 and Ike was chosen to replace Isidore in 2002 (but was axed on his first usage in 2008), so it's not impossible for a name to be retired in one basin and used again in another. That has also happened with a number of SHem storms, though I can't name them all. Ryan1000 23:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
I bet the NHC would choose some lame oldish name such as Harold or Hank to replace Harvey. I wouldn't want that. I'd prefer Harper. As for Irma, I very much want the replacement name to be Imogen. I quite like Henriette's suggestions, by the way! Why didn't anyone comment? I'd pick one from her list!blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 16:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

I feel like it would be Ivy. Ivy (like Hank, see above) just seems like a name the NHC would pick, and I'm honestly surprised it hasn't been used yet in the Atlantic, though it has been used a few times in the WPac. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:36, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC suggested Ina and Ivy as possible replacements for Isabel in 2003, as well as Ida (which was chosen), so they may bring up those same names for Irma this time around. Ryan1000 01:53, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
Those 2 names would be nice replacements, although Ivy sounds better (even though it has been used in other basins and retired in the WPac). I additionally love the names Izzy, Imogen, Iggy and Indira. "Innocence" would be hilarious if the name was used for a devastating, aka "not innocent" hurricane. That name would be best suited for fishspinners. :P Doubt Ivana/Ivanka would be chosen either due to political reasons. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:34, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
So far, I like the following names: Ivy, Inga, In(n)a, Irina, Idina and Imogen. Is(s)a is also a good one. (Issa hurricane, lol. Just kidding.) Btw Steve and 12, Ivy wasn't retired in WPac. It was actually last used in 1994. The list was changed the following year. (@ Steve: Maybe you're referring to Iva, which was retired (or should I say removed?) in EPac.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
I'd personally pick Idina, Ivy, or Isa for replacements. I don't personally want Ivana or Ivanka due to potential confusion with Ivan, another devastating "I" storm that was retired only 13 years ago, not necessarily due to political reasons (Ivanka Trump). Ryan1000 02:35, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Here are some more:

  • Icelyn
  • Idalia
  • Idetta
  • Ieesha
  • Imiza
  • Inca
  • India
  • Indiana
  • Indigo
  • Inocencia
  • Italia

Andros 1337 (talk) 19:01, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I highly doubt India will be chosen as a replacement name due to the country named India, seeing as how the WMO removed Israel from the EPac list in 2001 due to the country with the same name. Indiana is probably in the same boat, due to the U.S. state with the same name. Ryan1000 23:30, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
Probably the same goes for Italia as well, since it is Italian/Spanish for Italy. Andros 1337 (talk) 16:19, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
Is it too soon after Isabel to suggest Isabella as a replacement name? Otherwise, I'll go with Ivy as my backup pick. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:03, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
Why not go with the name Ilyssa as a replacement for Irma? It's my new favorite pick, followed by Ivy and Imogen. The name Inga isn't out of the realm of possibility either. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
So while following #Maria on Twitter saw a person with the name Ivelisse. Looked it up to see if it was a common name and apparently appears to be a popular name in Spanish speaking and Caribbean countries. Could be a contender as well. Like this name a lot as well quite unique. --Whiplash (talk) 02:19, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For MariaEdit

Because we are probably going to be having this discussion anyways. M retirements are great because this letter has SO many names to pick from so instead of listing a bunch of possibilities like with I or H as they don't have as much variety I'm just gonna name my 5 favorite M replacement possibilities.

  • Manon - A French name that would be interesting to see
  • Medea - My runner-up.
  • Minerva - My personal fave.
  • Morgan(a)
  • Myra

Thoughts? --Whiplash (talk) 00:34, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Molly is my first choice by considerable distance, as it happens to be the name of one of my closest friends. Minerva, Melanie, Millicent, Mildred, and Morgan would also be good picks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:49, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
  • Millie
  • Molly
  • Morgan
  • Mollie
  • Mary
  • Madison
  • Maddison
  • Madelyn
  • Maggie
  • Minerva (please no)
  • Minnie (hell no)
  • Mackenzie
  • McKenzie
  • Magdelena
  • Mathilde
  • Matilda
  • Megan
  • Meagan
  • Mimi
  • Moxie
  • Monique
  • Maxime
  • Manon
  • Monika
  • Monroe
  • Margot
  • Maryse
  • Marta
  • Marit
  • Metta
  • Mette
What are your opinions? I would personally choose MONIQUE, MEGAN, MAXIME, MATHILDE, MIMI, MANON or MOLLYblow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on150px-PrussiaChibi 01:25, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Melanie, Molly, and McKenzie are my picks. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Here are my ideas, what do you think?
Maxime is a boy's name silly-willy. Maybe you are thinking of Maxine? --Whiplash (talk) 01:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
I don't know how I managed to forget Meg(h)an but that's another name high on my list, probably second after Molly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Maude doesn't seem to have been used.I would suggest Mariah,with its different pronunciation,but the "Paint Your Wagon" song with that different pronunciation actually officially spells the name "Maria" nonetheless.So we can't "call the wind Ma-RYE-uh" differently.
Melisandre?...Munia?12.144.5.2 03:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Sad to see that a beautiful name like "Maria" has to be used for a monster. I choose Molly, Morgan, Madison, Minerva, Mary, Maggie, Mathilde, Matilda, Meghan, Monique, Melanie or Myra. And there could be many more that I like. There's so many "M" names to choose from. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:13, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
Maria is shaping up to be a strong retirement candidate if the current forecast pans out and Puerto Rico gets a strong cat 4 landfall from this, although thankfully the global models turn Maria offshore before hitting the Eastern U.S. as of now, hopefully that's the case down the road. My favorite pick would be Melanie, but Molly, Morgan, and Megan are also good choices. Ryan1000 09:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Mara, Martha, Maxine/Maxie, Monica, Melanie, Molly, Mandy, Marge/Margaret, Manon, Meg(an). Those are my picks so far. My favorites are Martha and Marge, tbh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My favorite to replace Maria would be Megan. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Some more I guess...
  • Magda
  • Marge
  • Marianna
  • Marina
  • Marla (I and M open time to add Trump's ex wives and make this the Trump themed list we always wanted)
  • Marlene
  • Meg
  • Megara
  • Melania (See above)
  • Missy
  • Misty
  • Mitzy/Mizzi
  • Mona
  • Mylene
  • Myrna

Edit: Forgot about Miranda.

There are a lot to pick from here. --Whiplash (talk) 20:10, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My best picks are Mae, Margot, Molly, Meg, and Minerva. Possible picks are Martha, Marge, and Matilda. The big no-no is Monica due to the storm of the same name that struck Australia in 2006. Mary is too close to Marie and Maria. TG 2017 20:44, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


My picks. Molly Mitchy Minty Monty Morgan Mexica Merry Mounds Moria Annnnnd..... MONICA!!!!! User:Stacy54 7:57 AM September 19.

Here are some more:

  • Macey
  • Maleficent
  • Margarita
  • Marisol
  • Marley
  • Martina
  • Meredith
  • Michelina

Andros 1337 (talk) 23:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

So many M names we need to stop... but I can't here are some more:

  • Mabel
  • Makayla
  • Maribelle
  • Marvina
  • Maven
  • Melvinia
  • Morticia - Lul if it gets this name.

I am literally going to be quite intrigued to see what the replacement M name will be. Probably one of the more common ones obviously but will be interesting to see if they pick a less popular one. Do we know what some of the suggestions to the WHO were for Michelle or Marilyn? --Whiplash (talk) 04:31, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For NateEdit

Due to the deaths and flooding that has already occurred in Central America, and the forecast track into the Gulf Coast, it is safe to say that Nate may already have a decent chance of retirement.

There are quite a bit of male "N" names, so I'll choose some of my favorites:

  • Noah
  • Norris
  • Nolan(d)
  • Nick
  • Neil
  • Nelson
  • Nico
  • Nigel
  • Norton
  • Niles

There's also more, but it'll be too much to list every single one. But I'll go and pick out some more:

  • Neal (similar to "Neil")
  • Nathaniel (similar to Nate, a bit doubtful this will be chosen)
  • Nadir
  • Niko
  • Nevan
  • Nat
  • Nikolai
  • Nathan (similar to Nate, a bit doubtful this will be chosen)
  • Nacho (doubt the NHC will pick this though :P)
  • Norwell
  • Nilo
  • Ni(c)colo
  • Nilsen
  • Nyle
  • Niall (Horan :P)

Any more interesting names?

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmm... I don't really think that NHC will choose Nathan or Nathaniel because they are same as Nate. Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Noah and Nigel are my picks for the replacement if it does occur. TG 2017 23:37, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Fred, those names are not really the same (the spellings are different, for one). Nate is a nickname for Nathan(iel) and it's possible that the NHC could choose nicknames (or alternative names or variants). But it's not as likely. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:59, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, but WMO used Frederic was replaced with Fabian, then replaced with Fred, which is a shortened/nickname for Frederic. Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
Nelson & Nigel are my picks. Neal/Neil is also a good one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:51, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
I dunno what to choose, I guess I have to pick Noah, Nigel, and Nelson. (In fact, Noah is the most popular baby name of 2016.) But Nathan, Nathaniel, Nat, and Nico, no way Jose. (Nico is similar/shortened name to Nicholas.) Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Niko is the name of one of my closest friends, so yeah... my top pick by far. (68, the names Fran and Frances were on the Atlantic lists simultaneously for nearly two decades until Fran's retirement after the 1996 season, so I don't see any issue with Nicholas and Niko/Nico being on the lists at the same time.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
See I was actually going to say that I really didn't think there are very many N names for boys at all. After the ones listed above the only ones I could think of that weren't included would be Neville, Ned, and Natal. Neymar due to the soccer player I believe has also increased in popularity recently, however of all of them Natal is probably my favorite. Edit: Also forgot about Nikita which can be used male or female it is androgynous kind of like Sam. --Whiplash (talk) 18:36, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
My personal picks for Nate, should he be bad enough for the U.S. to get retired (I don't think the Caribbean impacts will cut it, unfortunately) would be Noland, Nigel, Nelson, or Nick. I'm aware Nicholas is already on list 1 (last used in 2003), but as Dylan mentioned, and I did before, having variations of names used on different Atlantic and/or EPac lists isn't out of the question, we saw how Matthew was replaced by Martin earlier this year while Marty was in the EPac lists, so Nick/Nico aren't out of the question either, though it's not my primary pick regardless. Ryan1000 23:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
Seeing as how Nate isn't a certain retirement candidate at this point, I've changed the subheader to "potentially for Nate" (like with Don). There's still an outside chance he could go but it's certainly not obvious like Harvey, Irma, or Maria. Ryan1000 23:13, October 9, 2017 (UTC)Eh, scratch what I said before, I didn't expect Nate to be almost as destructive as Otto was for Costa Rica, this may actually be a near-certain candidate for retirement, like the other big 3 storms we saw this year. Ryan1000 11:17, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

Potentially for OpheliaEdit

This storm has somewhat of a chance to be retired, since 38 fatalities have occurred. So here's a list of potential replacements.

  • Ora
  • Odessa
  • Olive
  • Oprah
  • Olympia
  • Octavia
  • Oksana

I know there aren't very many names to choose from, but there aren't many "O" names to begin with. TG 2017 18:09, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Some more

  • Odilia
  • Otylia
  • Oribella
  • Oakley
  • Odiana
  • Odiane (variant)
  • Oleysa

Really, what's there to choose from? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 19:36, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

  • Onora
  • Orchid
  • Orla
  • Orpha
  • Orva

Are some other names that are possible. --Whiplash (talk) 00:07, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

Out of all these names, I'd pick Ora, Olive, Odessa, and Orla. Odilia is too close to Odile. TG 2017 11:47, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
I know Odilia is close to Odile, I just thought that there could be a small possibility that it would be used. Or maybe not, idk. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 19:12, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

These are my personal top 10 picks:

  • Olive
  • Octavia
  • Oriana
  • Oprah
  • Olympia
  • Oriel
  • Odessa
  • Orla
  • Orpha
  • Oakley

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:06, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

My pick goes to Olive. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, October 18, 2017 (UTC)
I'll pick Octavia to give this a Shakespearean theme. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:08, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
I pick Odessa, Olive and Ora. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:04, October 22, 2017 (UTC)
Reanaysis kicked Ophelia's damage down to only 70 million dollars from over a billion, so I'm not seeing a retirement here. Ryan1000 14:22, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

GenericallyEdit

Without regard to particular letters of the alphabet,what do people think makes a good hurricane name? I prefer that they not be particular modern,without being cobwebby.I suppose one might try for "wimpy" names in the course of wishing for storms to be gentle,but I have this sinking (not to 25inHg I hope) feeling that the tropical systems won't care what we call them."Major Hurricane Fluffy has triggered mudslides washing the remains of Resort City into the sea,after the soil was left waterlogged amid the wholesale devastation wrought by Hurricane Bambi and Hurricane Cuddles..." 12.144.5.2 00:10, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


UHHHHH.... (French Narrator) The very next evening... (French Narrator) Sinba? Beware of Maria.

What is a good replacement for Tammy?--Isaac829E-Mail 05:25, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Tammy is a girls name right? Tiffany might be a good replacement for Tammy. Names like Trixie and Tatum are also good names that'll replace that name. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:32, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
What about Timantha, when Timmy Turner from the Fairly OddParents was turned into a girl for one episode? Andros 1337 (talk) 23:56, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Season ChangesEdit

Surprised no one added this section yet, but so far we've had Arlene, her TCR came out two months ago. Anyone have thoughts on what we might see post-season? Ryan1000 15:53, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

I wonder if will we get TCRs for potential tropical cyclones.--Isaac829E-Mail 19:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
An investigation into just how many records Irma set.(Klotzbach has linked to an obsolete PDF of Irma's records on Twitter today).Post-2005 we had some upgrades,if Irma actually outdid Allen they'll want to figure it out.12.144.5.2 19:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
I'm gonna be bold and say Jose will be upgraded to a Cat 5 post-season.--Isaac829E-Mail 01:42, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
Thoughts: Cindy may go up to 55 knots, Emily will probably be found to have formed earlier and get an upgrade to 45 knots, Jose will probably be upgraded to C5, and Katia will probably be found to have formed earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:02, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

I wonder what will be done with PTC Ten. Could it potentially be designated as an unnamed subtropical storm? Andros 1337 (talk) 19:16, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I have the feeling Jose will be upgraded to a C5, it looked more organized the hour before it was upgraded to 155 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:06, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I definitely think that Jose will be upgraded to a C5. I also think Emily and Harvey will get an upgrade. Emily had a 45 kt peak and Harvey had a peak of 120 kt over land. The most likely thing to happen, however, is Irma getting an upgrade to 165 kt. TG 2017 22:15, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
I'm not sure how the NHC will treat potential tropical cyclones after the season; if PTC 10 gets a report it may be upgraded to an unnamed storm post-season. If Jose doesn't make landfall, I'd like him to be upgraded to a cat 5 so we can have at least one Atlantic cat 5 to never make landfall anywhere at any intensity. Ryan1000 23:35, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
After contacting the NHC myself, one of their forecasters said that, if a potential tropical cyclone is not upgraded to a TD or TS in reanalysis, it will only get a best track line and data, but not its own tropical cyclone report. So PTC 10 this year won't get its own TCR (assuming its not upgraded in reanalysis), but it will still get mention in their best track record. Ryan1000 02:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

KN2731 made this kind of table for reanalysis tropical cyclone reports on the EPac forum page, I'll add this here for the Atlantic too. When a TCR comes out, you can put it in the proper column for that storm, we'll have a side-by-side comparison with operational and reanalysis intensity as well:

Name Operational Intensity and Duration Reanalysis Intensity and Duration TCR Release Date
Arlene 50 mph, 993 mbars, April 19-21 50 mph, 990 mbars, April 19-21 July 5, 2017
Bret 45 mph, 1007 mbars, June 19-20 N/A N/A
Cindy 60 mph, 992 mbars, June 20-23 N/A N/A
Four 30 mph, 1008 mbars, July 6-7 30 mph, 1009 mbars, July 5-7 October 20, 2017
Don 50 mph, 1007 mbars, July 17-19 N/A N/A
Emily 45 mph, 1005 mbars, July 31-August 2 N/A N/A
Franklin 85 mph, 981 mbars, August 7-10 N/A N/A
Gert 105 mph, 967 mbars, August 13-17 N/A N/A
Harvey 130 mph, 938 mbars, August 17-20/23-Sept. 1 N/A N/A
Irma 185 mph, 914 mbars, August 30-September 12 N/A N/A
Jose 155 mph, 938 mbars, September 5-22 N/A N/A
Katia 105 mph, 972 mbars, September 5-9 105 mph, 972 mbars, September 5-9 November 28, 2017
Lee 115 mph, 962 mbars, September 15-19/22-30 N/A N/A
Maria 175 mph, 908 mbars, September 16-30 N/A N/A
Nate 90 mph, 981 mbars, October 4-9 N/A N/A
Ophelia 115 mph, 958 mbars, October 9-16 N/A N/A
Philippe 60 mph, 997 mbars, October 28-29 N/A N/A
Rina 60 mph, 995 mbars, November 6-9 N/A N/A

Hopefully this helps with identifying intensity upgrades/downgrades. Arlene's pressure was knocked down by 3 mbars in reanalysis thus far. EDIT: Slightly changed, this'll make it look better.  Ryan1000 20:35, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

Thanks for helping to copy it over. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:22, September 30, 2017 (UTC)
And soz for the late response on this. But I agree with Jose being a Cat 5 since its close to 160 mph. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:28, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
That table is very neat. I would give a chance for Jose being upgraded to a C5, and Irma could be upgraded to 190 mph. PTC 10 has a chance of being upgraded to something (sub)tropical. Harvey's windspeed could be slightly upgraded as well. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:55, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
I doubt that Harvey will be upgraded to a 140 mph cat 4 in reanalysis; there could be minor pressure adjustments but the winds will likey stay the same. If Irma is upgraded to a 190 mph hurricane, she'd tie Allen, which would be a record for the strongest September hurricane in windspeed. Also, added Nate. Feel free to edit his intensity as time goes on. Ryan1000 00:05, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
Lots of people are saying that TD 17 should have formed much earlier, even up to 42 hours ago. Maybe this will show up in reanalysis. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:31, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
Since Nate was so close from being a Cat 2, maybe it'll be upgraded to that intensity. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:14, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
I've slightly edited Harvey and Lee to put in the times when they were tropical cyclones, as they dissipated and later regenerated. Not expecting Nate to be upgraded to a cat 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if Irma gets a windspeed upgrade in reanalysis. Ryan1000 02:41, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
Hopefully the NHC can use this lull (both basins they monitor are dead) to work on more TCRs. I'm hoping Ophelia gets buffed slightly due to her great satellite presentation. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:25, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

I've slightly edited the table again to include the date of the TCR, the links will be in the storm names when they come out, like you did in the EPac. Ryan1000 19:57, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Looks like TD 4 went up on the NHC page, though the TCR itself was released on October 20, 13 days ago. The only changes are the pressure being raised by 1 mbar and that it was found to have formed one day earlier, on July 5 instead of 6. Ryan1000 05:05, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
Ryan, you meant to say TD 4 but instead, you said TD 6. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
I think you meant TD 4. Anyway, it was a shame its winds weren't upped to 35 mph, I was kinda hoping they would be. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:30, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
Sorry, meant to say 4, fixed. Looks like the NHC may take a while to finish the TCR's on the big 3 hurricanes this year, they may not be finished until next year's season starts. Ryan1000 21:15, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Here's what you guys think about the upgrades.

  • Cindy
    • May be upgraded to 55 kn.
      • Not out yet
  • Emily
    • May have formed earlier and be upgraded to 45 kn.
      • Not out yet
  • Harvey
    • May peak at 120 kn over land.
      • Not out yet
  • PTC 10
    • May be upgraded to a (sub)tropical storm.
      • Not out yet
  • Irma
    • May be upgraded to 190 mph.
      • Not out yet
  • Jose
    • May be upgraded into a Category 5.
      • Not out yet
  • Katia
    • May have formed earlier.
      • It stayed the same. One down, eight to go.
  • Nate
    • May be upgraded into a Category 2.
      • Not out yet
  • Ophelia
    • May have formed earlier.
      • Not out yet

I will update them once the TCRs are out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:10, November 14, 2017 (UTC)

Have a break, have a KitKatIA. SUPREME COLGATE CREW 21:26, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

And Katia is exactly the same. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:28, November 30, 2017 (UTC)

General Discussion Edit

Not sure if I'm allowed to make a new section like this, if not just remove. Anyways, I thought a section for general discussion about the season could be helpful and have some use. Discussion about anything related to the season, its storms and effects... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 11:46, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

This is what Forum:Hurricane Talk and Forum:Worldwide activity discussion are for. Use those.--Isaac829E-Mail 18:42, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

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