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Current Systems: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E


This is the forum page for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


Future StartEdit

The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)

Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)
As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)
The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. TG 2017 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Pre-Season - May Edit

It's 2017 now, so I thought I'd add this section just in case we get another Alex-type storm. ~ Bobnekaro PageWallEdits Happy New Year 2017! 19:51, January 1, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST Edit

March AOI: East of Bahamas Edit

Models form a subtropical-like low in a few days east of the Bahamas. Eric Blake of NHC himself has noted the possibility of development on Twitter: "Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy 😳🙄 no delusions of grandeur please! " I hope we can get an extremely rare March Arlene! -Bob FORM ARLENE FORM!

I was hoping for another storm like this! Would this be the first time that two consecutive seasons had a storm form before May 1? TG 2017 19:57, March 24, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST Edit

We have Invest 90L! Highly doubt it will become Arlene but we have another March invest (we had one in 2011 as well). NHC has not issued a STWO yet, but maybe they will tomorrow if 90L can organize a bit overnight! ~ Bobnekaro PageWallEdits 00:22, March 27, 2017 (UTC)

I wouldn't give up on this storm so quickly. All major models are showing this system becoming a named storm tomorrow, making this storm a very good candidate for our first named storm. TG 2017 14:58, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
The winds of this invest are already up to 40 mph, and this system is starting to look much more organized than it was last night. TG 2017 16:31, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
Still no STWO, and the system has not become any better organized. Looks like Arlene will have to wait, unfortunately, let's hope it's not too long. ~ Bobnekaro PageWallEdits 20:32, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
I still think this has a potential of becoming Arlene, and the NHC is still being lazy. (Remember Lisa's TCR came out 20 days prior to the update of their page last year). TG 2017 21:07, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
  Looks like nothing happened, RIP Invest 90L...March 2?-March 2?, 2017. NoJO (talk) 00:27, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

01L.ARLENE Edit

91L. INVEST Edit

So a little swirl in the central Atlantic was designated Invest 91L by the NHC today. It has a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical storm in 48 hours and has winds about 50 mph. Come on, Arlene! Hard to believe we have 2 invests and it's not even May yet, I think 2011 had the same thing. ~ Bobnekaro PageWallEdits 19:25, April 17, 2017 (UTC)

This has a better shot to be Arlene than 90L did, IMO. TG 2017 19:58, April 17, 2017 (UTC)
Latest special TWO gives 50/50. Unfortunately it only has less than 24 hours before it gets absorbed by another extratropical cyclone. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:55, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
This won't be the last TWO, and I still don't think Invest 91L is done yet. TG 2017 11:16, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
It's actually looking not bad on satellite imagery right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:06, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
And now it's 70/70! Here comes Arlene! ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:24, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
Woah, didn't expect that! Looks like we'll be seeing our third consecutive year with pre-season storms if this becomes Arlene later today, that'd be impressive. Ryan1000 14:21, April 19, 2017 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression One Edit

And we have our first (sub)tropical depression of the year! Unfortunately, it's not expected to become Arlene. Hopefully it does though, as it's not affecting land. Ryan1000 15:53, April 19, 2017 (UTC)

Arlene is likely coming at 5PM. 1-0-0. :D AL, 01, 2017042018, , BEST, 0, 373N, 407W, 40, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 400, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, M, ~ Bobnekaro PageWallEdits 19:25, April 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arlene Edit

She did it, 40 kt/993 mbar. Strongest storm in April by pressure already. TG 2017 20:33, April 20, 2017 (UTC)

"I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting career." Discussion quotes off to a great start already.--Isaac829E-Mail 21:16, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
Well then. I didn't expect this. Got home about 20 minutes ago, turned on The Weather Channel to see what the weather would be like the rest of the weekend, and then they cut in to announce Arlene's formation. So for the 3rd year in a row, hurricane season has started early. However, Arlene's not going to last long. It's going to be absorbed by an upper level low. Leeboy100Hello! 21:20, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
After a bit of checking in the best track, the only other time the Atlantic has produced a pre-season storm for 3 or more consecutive years was from 1951-54. Regardless, Arlene shouldn't last much longer; it should die out sometime tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:52, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
Before Arlene dissipates, I'd at least like to see it strengthen slightly more. At most, Arlene might go to 60 mph, but that's shooting pretty high for a storm this far north in April. 50 mph might be all Arlene strengthens to. TG 2017 23:20, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
Avila mention that she was probably 50mph a while ago so she will probably be up in post analysis. her formation was pretty remarkable after not being classified yesterday I didnt thought she was going to be upgrade. I am happy she shoot expectations. 181.210.62.178 01:12, April 21, 2017 (UTC)
Well well, looks like we have the first TS since April 2003, 14 years ago, when Ana formed. What a surprise to me (although it's not a shock). Arlene will soon become a rement low, sadly. But I'm so happy that I'm not out on this. :) 70.190.5.175 01:46, April 21, 2017 (UTC)
Wow, yet another off-season tropical cyclone forms in the Atlantic basin this decade. This is the seventh instance now. How does this keep happening? Maybe the Atlantic basin is getting jealous of the Western Pacific for generating tropical storms and sometimes typhoons before June 1. In response to that, the Atlantic is trying to copy the Western Pacific by generating tropical cyclones before the season begins, and after the season ends. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:21, April 21, 2017 (UTC)
Unfortunately, Arlene is starting to look like she's weakening. I don't think Arlene will hold on much longer, due to that monster churning southwest of her. TG 2017 11:53, April 21, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone ArleneEdit

Arlene is gone now, but it was sure a heck of a time tracking her. TG 2017 14:39, April 21, 2017 (UTC)

Eh, it was nice while it lasted. Being the Atlantic's first April storm in only 14 years (considering only 3 (sub)tropical storms have formed in April, and Ana was named on the exact same date in 2003) there's not much to complain about. Ryan1000 15:27, April 21, 2017 (UTC)
Well, what a storm. It was nice seeing it. It was the 3rd (sub)tropical storm in April after Subtropical Storm One (1992) and Tropical Storm Ana (2003). Now it's gone. What a rare occurrence. :) 70.190.5.175 00:55, April 22, 2017 (UTC)

June Edit

AOI: 02E RegenerationEdit

Any chance that TD Two-E from the EPac may regenerate after its remnants move into the Bay of Campeche? ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Well, it seems possible to me, at the moment. While NHC has not upgraded Two E to a TS as per Adv 4A, it looks like we might just get a re-Hermine 2010. 182.58.70.247 11:41, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

182, the storm will have to survive the Mexican mountains, which is pretty hard to do in the first place, given that most storms can't even make it over Mexico or Central America without becoming a remnant low (Patricia, Karl, Gilbert, Allen, Diana, Earl, Ernesto.) Otto, Cesar-Douglas, Joan-Miriam, Fifi-Orlene, and Greta-Olivia are the exceptions in recent history. This is a tropical depression so the chances of regeneration are very low at this time. No models are forecasting it to survive over Mexico, but there is a separate system that could form in the Gulf on Monday/Tuesday. By the time it would get to the BOC, this storm would've fallen apart to much for reformation, and the very hostile wind shear in that area would make it impossible for it to regenerate. I do see that you have mentioned 11-E/Hermine in here. That system was much further south than Two-E is right now. TG 2017 15:55, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
The remnants of Beatriz have now made the NHC page. However, they put it at 0/0. TG 2017 12:47, June 4, 2017 (UTC)
Yeah, because of the strong upper-level winds that will weaken the system, tropical cyclone formation won't happen. :) 70.190.5.175 15:41, June 4, 2017 (UTC)
I think there is no reason to put it on the page unless it actually has a chance of formation. TG 2017 21:54, June 4, 2017 (UTC)

03L.CINDYEdit

AOI: NW CaribbeanEdit

0/20 on NHC's 5-day outlook. Models generally show this moving across the Yucatán Peninsula before developing in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:05, June 14, 2017 (UTC)

Now 0/30. Ryan1000 03:22, June 15, 2017 (UTC)
Just went up to 0/50, won't be surprised if this is Bret. TG 2017 12:39, June 15, 2017 (UTC)
Up further to 0/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:51, June 16, 2017 (UTC)
Now it's up to 20/60. :) 70.190.5.175 23:25, June 16, 2017 (UTC)
20/70, and should soon become 93L. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:14, June 17, 2017 (UTC)
30/80 on the latest TWO. :) 70.190.5.175 20:16, June 17, 2017 (UTC)
30/80, now this looks better than 92L, though it still hasn't been numbered 93L yet. NHC says they may send recon to investigate this tomorrow if organization improves. Ryan1000 20:18, June 17, 2017 (UTC)

93L.INVESTEdit

It's now 40/80 as the invest is numbered. :) 70.190.5.175 01:47, June 18, 2017 (UTC)

Recon may be coming in later today to see if this is Bret. It'll be heading northward towards Louisiana and Texas over the next few days. Ryan1000 08:49, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
60/90, recon should be going off soon. It's producing quite a bit of impressive convection over the W Caribbean right now, though the convection isn't actually that close to the surface circulation center. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:35, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
93L looks poised to cause a lot of precipitation in the Western Caribbean, especially Mexico and Belize. On a side note, if the NHC chooses to issue Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) advisories on this system as they are now planning to do, when will those commence? The invest is already a noticeable threat for a number of landmasses. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:07, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
The planned recon mission for today has been cancelled, but there may be another investigation tomorrow. Chances of development are now 70% for the next 48 hours and 90% for the next five days. Since 93L does not have a well-defined circulation, I won't be surprised if the invest does not become a tropical cyclone until after crossing the Yucatán and entering the Gulf of Mexico. On a more trivial note, if 93L becomes a tropical storm, 2017 will become the fifth Atlantic hurricane season out of the past six to have had at least two named storms form before the end of June. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:46, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
93L is about to cross the Yucatán. I am surprised that the NHC has not declared this invest a potential tropical cyclone yet, as it is currently causing heavy precipitation across several Western Caribbean countries. There is still no closed circulation either, and that likely will not occur until the system reemerges on the other side of the peninsula. Nevertheless, chances of development for 93L are now 80% for the next 48 hours and 90% for the next five days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:40, June 19, 2017 (UTC)
93L is now over the Yucatán and should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later today. A possible recon mission later today will determine if the system has become tropical. For now, chances of formation remain the same. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:23, June 19, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone ThreeEdit

I'm not exactly sure why Mexico and the other Western Caribbean nations never issued any tropical storm warnings for 93L, but after moving into the Gulf of Mexico, the invest has become enough of a threat for portions of Louisiana and Texas that advisories have been issued. Although the NHC has designated Invest 93L as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, they have so far been unable to find a closed circulation and have sent a recon mission to investigate the system further. Winds are currently at 35 knots (40 mph), with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa). As Potential Tropical Cyclone Three continues moving towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, it will contend with strong shear, which should prevent any significant intensification. However, rainfall will be quite prevalent in this region for the next few days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:33, June 19, 2017 (UTC)

The lack of TS warnings outside the Gulf Coast is mainly because sustained tropical storm force winds are occurring over water well away from Cuba and the Yucatan; rather the main threat to the Western Caribbean is flooding and landslides due to prolonged heavy rains. Anyway recon did find a closed circulation but due to its elongated nature the NHC's decided to maintain 03L as a PTC for now. Winds are the same, but pressure's down slightly to 1000 mbar. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:43, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
Well, heavy rains and mudslides still pose a land threat to CA even if TS force winds aren't being felt there, so I think they should've named this PTC 3 earlier. However, because of it's elongated nature and some shear in the northern GOM, this shouldn't become a hurricane before it hits Louisiana, like you said heavy rains and mudslides are a bigger threat from 93L (soon to be Cindy) than winds or surge will be. Ryan1000 03:35, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three still has yet to develop a closed circulation, although another Hurricane Hunters mission will be taking place later this morning. With a pressure of now 999 mbar (hPa), the system currently has a rather erratic motion and is now forecast to make landfall closer to the Texas-Louisiana border. Regardless, heavy rainfall, a minor storm surge, and potential tornadoes will all impact the warning area, which now includes part of the Texan coast. Also, the NHC mentioned earlier that there is a possbility that Potential Tropical Cyclone Three may become a subtropical cyclone instead of a tropical cyclone. Given the disorganized nature of the system, I would not discredit that hypothesis. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:19, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
Like with Bret, the storm has 40 mph winds right now and if it does get upgraded to 03L, it'll jump straight to Cindy past a TD 3 designation. Also, with the track having shifted farther west, it's possible Texas might be in for a landfall instead of Louisiana, but impacts from this won't be much different from, say Bill of 2015 if it does so. Ryan1000 17:16, June 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm CindyEdit

Even 2005 did not start this fast! Data from the latest recon mission, along with some other observations, have prompted the upgrade of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three to Tropical Storm Cindy. Winds have increased to 40 knots (45 mph), and while the storm is currently stationary, it should continue moving towards the Gulf Coast within the next several hours, where rainfall is already being observed. Also, on a more trivial note, the coexistence of Bret and Cindy is the first of its kind since 1968, according to Philip Klotzbach. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:43, June 20, 2017 (UTC)

This is also the second consecutive season with three storms before July, although I doubt we'll get Don before July as well. Still, this is neat to see. Texas and Louisiana are in for some heavy rains from this. Ryan1000 18:38, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
New advisory just came out, and, I can't believe it. Winds have gone up to 60 mph, whereas everybody thought it would max out at 45. It looks that disorganized and the winds are at 60? Wow. Also, I live in the FL panhandle, so I am getting drenched by Cindy. Leeboy100Hello! 03:04, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
Now, I was not going to rule out the possibility that Cindy would intensify more, but 50 knots (60 mph)? It looks like this storm defied the odds, given its organization, and is now the strongest Atlantic TC this year so far in terms of wind! Also, information from the latest recon mission indicates that in addition to the wind increase, Cindy's pressure has decreased to 997 mbar (hPa). However, I do not expect any more additional intensification. Moreover, the storm is beginning to move again to the northwest after being stationary for a while and should make landfall over the Texas-Louisiana border within the next 48 hours. As you mentioned, Leeboy, rainfall is already falling over the U.S. Gulf Coast region, prompting expansion of the tropical storm warning zones. Nevertheless, I still doubt Cindy will be record-breaking in any way. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:29, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
It's possible Cindy could strengthen further to 70 mph or so as it heads towards the Texas/Louisiana border, like Alberto of 2006, which also hit 70 mph despite the circulation being displaced from the rest of the convection. However, Cindy still shouldn't become a hurricane. I'd be very surprised if it does so. Ryan1000 04:02, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
Now that you mention it, Ryan, I think it is a possibility. I had completely forgotten about Alberto. However new advisory came out about an hour ago. Nothing's changed as of it. Winds still at 60, pressure still 997. Also, I guess I won't be sleeping tonight. My area is currently under a tornado watch and it was raining pretty hard just a few minutes ago. So, thanks for that, Cindy.... Leeboy100Hello! 06:36, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
This thing doesn't even look tropical any more... NHC holding intensity at 50 kt, 997 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:42, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
New advisory, and this time, things have changed. Winds have gone down to 50 mph, pressure went down in the last advisory to 996, and this advisory keeps it there. The NHC is also now saying landfall will be late tonight, instead of early tommorrow. Leeboy100Hello! 15:06, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
Cindy's pressure has been bumped down to 995 mbar, but the winds are still at 45 kt (50 mph). TG 2017 17:43, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
Most of the heaviest thunderstorm activity is far north and east of the center of Cindy, in fact some of the heavier rain is over Alabama and Georgia right now, instead of approaching the Texas/Louisiana border. Ryan1000 23:14, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
Pressure is now down to 992 mbars per NHC, making this the strongest storm so far this season. Plus, the winds are still at 50 mph. I don't think the pressure will go any lower than this. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 23:59, June 21, 2017 (UTC)
Pressure down to 992. But it's closing in on landfall. It's probably not getting any lower than this. Also, I'm kind of paranoid, several towns around me have gotten tornadoes from Cindy today. I've been lucky so far not to get one, but I don't know whether or not my luck will run out. Leeboy100Hello! 01:06, June 22, 2017 (UTC)
New advisory just came out moments ago. Winds and pressure haven't changed, but it's now really close to land. Cindy (or as I call her "Windy Cindy" due to all the wind I'm getting from her) only has about a couple more hours over water before it makes landfall. Leeboy100Hello! 02:51, June 22, 2017 (UTC)
Actually, Cindy isn't as close to land as I thought. I just heard that it should also be making landfall in about 6 or 7 hours. So at 7 or 8 EDT. Leeboy100Hello! 05:09, June 22, 2017 (UTC)
Cindy made landfall not that long ago, and winds fell dramatically to 35 kt (40 mph). Not much change on the pressure, only falling by two millibars to 994 mbar. TG 2017 13:03, June 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression CindyEdit

Now down to a depression, should become a remnant low later today. However, heavy rain and flooding will be a threat regardless of whether it's a TC or not. Ryan1000 15:28, June 22, 2017 (UTC)

I have decided to return here (I've been posting on Storm2k in the meantime, which is a more active hurricane-related forum). Welcome me back! Cindy is a major flooder - and I heard a 10 year old got his life cut short early due to a Cindy-related incident. 😢 I also see that Andrew is back as well, a blast from the past I'd say. I would recommend you guys to check out Storm2k. On that site you can post advisory text, pictures, etc. as well as the normal "posts". ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:40, June 22, 2017 (UTC)
The NHC issued their final advisory on CIndy a few hours ago, but Cindy's impacts are still being felt. At the moment I'm typing this, there are many flash flood warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and in the Atlanta metro area, tornado warnings. Also, welcome back Steve! And yes, as you've said, unfortunately, we do have a death from Cindy, and a very sad one at that. Also, areas surrounding me were hit hard here in Florida. The nearby city of Pensacola has some major flooding in some areas, and quite a few tornadoes and waterspouts were spawned in surrounding communities. Fort Walton Beach, a city about 30-45 minutes away from me, got tornado damage. So it's been pretty wild here, almost 400 miles away from where the center made landfall. Shows you how far impacts from Cindy have been away from the center. Leeboy100Hello! 21:04, June 22, 2017 (UTC)
Cindy has been steadily weakening, but it's still dumping rain over a large swath of land from Arkansas to the Carolinas. Unfortunately there has been a second fatality in Texas. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:52, June 23, 2017 (UTC)
Cindy has gained some strength over land, like Fay. Pressure has been raised to 1002 mbar, and winds were raised from 20 mph to 35 mph. TG 2017 16:39, June 23, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone CindyEdit

Spoke too soon, but I have been completely drenched by Cindy. The local river went up and basically flooded everything here. Fortunately, Cindy is mostly gone. Unfortunately, there is still a flooding event going on, but Cindy will be absorbed by a cold front soon enough. TG 2017 22:03, June 23, 2017 (UTC)

This must suck, TG. Cindy flooded a widespread region, so you are not alone. The flooding should recede soon enough😀 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:00, June 24, 2017 (UTC)
Well, I missed the bulk of Cindy's existence, as the WPC has issued their final advisory on its remnants. In addition to the aforementioned impacts, rainfall from this system was quite high in some regions of Louisiana and Mississippi. New Orleans reported over ten inches of precipitation, as well as several cities in coastal Mississippi. Also, there have been reports of a state of emergency in Biloxi, Mississippi because of the threat of flooding. Although I doubt that Cindy will be retired, this is not a good sign impactwise. On a side note, Cindy was the first tropical storm to make landfall in Louisiana since Isaac in 2012. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:14, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

02L.BRETEdit

AOI: Off AfricaEdit

This is fairly early in the season to see something like this, but there's a fairly well-organized wave near Cape Verde right now and is at 20% for 5 days as it moves westward across the Atlantic. This may eventually become something in the Caribbean or GoM way down the road. Ryan1000 14:16, June 14, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC still shows 10/20, but I think this has a shot at becoming Cindy (since the GoM storm will most likely be Bret). TG 2017 12:41, June 15, 2017 (UTC)
Upped to 20/40 after NHC noted increased organization. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:52, June 16, 2017 (UTC)
Now upgraded to 40/60. This system will be either named Bret or Cindy once it's a TS. :) 70.190.5.175 23:27, June 16, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVESTEdit

This actually might become Bret first if it keeps up, it's gotten a lot better organized since yesterday, and if it develops east of the lesser antilles, it'll be one of only 3 June storms to do so in the Atlantic. That'd be pretty neat to see. However, if it wants to develop, it had better do so fast, because the eastern Caribbean is a shear-ridden graveyard right now and none of the major models expect this to survive to the Central caribbean without getting torn apart. Ryan1000 04:32, June 17, 2017 (UTC)

40/70 with the latest TWO. It needs to detach itself from the ITCZ though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:13, June 17, 2017 (UTC)
Now back to 40/60. :) 70.190.5.175 20:13, June 17, 2017 (UTC)
40/50, time is running out for this one... Ryan1000 08:50, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
Funny how the chances of this forming are falling after it actually gets support from the models. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:18, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
50/50, and I don't think this one would form unless this one gets a higher chance. :) 70.190.5.175 16:34, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
It's so surprising to see the Atlantic active so far early. Also, I want to make a comment about 92L's latitude. Based on the latest NHC TWO, this system is under 10°N. To see any tropical cyclone form in this region is impressive, but even more so. I think this invest has potential to break some records if it develops. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:03, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
92L has become a little better organized. However, it only has a couple of days left before conditions take a turn for the worse. Regardless, those in northeastern South America and the southeastern Windward Islands should continue to monitor the invest, and chances of formation are now 60% for both the next 48 and 120 hours. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:40, June 18, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone TwoEdit

This isn't officially Bret or TD 2 yet, but the NHC said in the RA IV hurricane committee earlier this year (when they retired Matthew and Otto) that starting with this season, they will issue advisories on storms that are a potential threat to land, even if they're not officially named or numbered. This is up to 70%, and is forecast to become Bret briefly before hitting the Lessers and dying in the Eastern Caribbean. Ryan1000 21:32, June 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical storm warnings are up for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, although any impact should not be too significant. Honestly, I was not expecting 92L to become a potential tropical cyclone, but here we go! The system is moving westwards rather quickly, and only has a couple of days to take advantage of the warm SSTs and low shear. On a side note, if the NHC issues advisories on potential tropical cyclones in the future, should they be included in the active storms template? I have chosen to do so, but I know there is no precedent for this. Also, the current intensity of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is 30 knots (35 mph)/1008 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:22, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has become better organized, and I will not be surprised if it becomes a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. Its current intensity is now 30 knots (35 mph)/1007 mbar (hPa), and chances of formation have increased to 90% for both the next 48 and 120 hours. Also, tropical storm warnings have now been issued for Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Grenada. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:59, June 18, 2017 (UTC)
We might as well include this in the active storms header, since it's a land-threatening storm in which official advisories are being issued on by the NHC, but don't change the header of the thread to 02L.NONAME or 02L.BRET until we get NHC confirmation that this is actually a full-fledged TC (which it likely will be soon). If they do the potential TC thing with 93L then we can include it in the storms header too. Ryan1000 02:44, June 19, 2017 (UTC)
Good to know. As for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, it already has acquired gale-force winds of 35 knots (40 mph), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa), and looks poised to become tropical at any given moment. Hopefully, the Windward Islands are prepared for any impacts. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:57, June 19, 2017 (UTC)
The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has discontinued their tropical storm warning, but new advisories are up for Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles. While Potential Tropical Cyclone Two's intensity remains the same, it is getting very close to the South American continent and may not become a tropical cyclone operationally due to land interaction. Even if the system tracks further north, it will have to contend with strong shear and not last very long. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:36, June 19, 2017 (UTC)
NHC still fails to identify a closed LLC for this system, which is why it's not Bret even though it is producing TS force winds right now, and has a 90% chance of becoming Bret before hitting the Lessers tonight. Ryan1000 16:28, June 19, 2017 (UTC)
The Hurricane Hunters are investigating if the system is a TS. This system has 40 mph winds and a pressure of 1005 mbar. :) 70.190.5.175 18:10, June 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm BretEdit

Just in. We now have Bret. Leeboy100Hello! 20:50, June 19, 2017 (UTC)

Well, given how close this system was getting to Venezuela, I was starting to lose hope, but "after much effort", as the NHC describes, a closed circulation was found and we have our second tropical storm of the year. Bret's pressure has risen slightly to 1007 mbar (hPa), but it is still moving very quickly to the west. As a matter of fact, given how far west the storm has deviated from its original forecast path, I will not be surprised if Bret smashes into the South American continent without ever entering the Caribbean. On a side note, according to Philip Klotzbach, Bret is the earliest-forming TC in the Main Development Region, surpassing Tropical Storm Ana from 1979. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:24, June 19, 2017 (UTC)
Our second TS, Bret, formed just moments ago. It is forecasted that Bret will slam into Venezuela. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect in that country, Grenada, and Trinidad and Tobago. :) 70.190.5.175 00:33, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
It's also one of only 3 storms to form east of the Lesser Antilles before July and the first one since Ana, the other was the 1933 hurricane which hit Trinidad and northern Venezuela at the end of June. However, Bret will soon die out due to hostile conditions in the Caribbean, if this kind of storm happens later this year we could be in big trouble. Both 1933 and 1979 proved to be notable seasons after seeing activity this far east early in the season, we might get a big storm or two in the MDR later this year as well. Ryan1000 03:29, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
It's making landfall on Venezuela and Trinidad, a rare occurrence. It will soon dissipate a couple of days later. :) 70.190.5.175 11:04, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
Bret has now emerged into the Eastern Caribbean Sea and has actually slightly intensified to 40 knots (45 mph)/1008 mbar (hPa). However, shear is already beginning to attack the storm, and Bret will likely lose tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours as it continues speeding westwards. Regardless, advisories are still in place for Venezuela's Isla Margarita and the Netherlands Antilles, and slight precipitation and gale-force winds can be expected in those areas. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:11, June 20, 2017 (UTC)
Little fun fact I found about Bret. It is the first storm to make landfall in Venezuela since 1993. Coincidentally, that storm was also named Bret. This Bret shouldn't last much longer. It's run into some shear.Leeboy100Hello! 20:58, June 20, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of BretEdit

Bret no longer has a closed circulation and has degenerated into a tropical wave per the NHC. All advisories have been discontinued and regeneration is not expected. There are no damage or fatality statistics just yet, but I doubt Bret was severely impactful for Venezuela and the Windward Islands. And Leeboy, that is a funny coincidence. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:11, June 20, 2017 (UTC)

Wow. We all knew it would run into shear once it got into the Caribbean, but I don't think any of us expected it to die this quickly. However, the remnants are still causing some impacts. Leeboy100Hello! 01:05, June 21, 2017 (UTC)

Bret has caused an indirect fatality in Trinidad. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:20, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

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