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Current Systems: TROPICAL STORM TARA


This is the forum page for the 2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season.

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December

98P.INVEST

Say hello to (likely) the first invest of the SPac season. Low chance on JTWC, but not yet being mentioned at all on the RSMC Nadi outlook. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:14, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

No longer on JTWC but still on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:54, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

No longer on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:42, December 6, 2017 (UTC)

02F.NONAME

Tropical Disturbance 02F (91P.INVEST)

New weak low near Samoa. Development is possible until Wednesday, when it encounters less favorable environmental conditions. ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 04:04, December 17, 2017 (UTC)

Will it become the first storm of the season, Fehi? Stay tuned. Hi!-68.106.0.77 08:02, December 17, 2017 (UTC)
This disturbance shouldn't become Fehi. It's down to "low" chance for Tuesday according to RSMC Nadi, and won't develop beyond that day. ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC)
It's pretty much dead now. ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC)

03F.NONAME

Tropical Disturbance 03F

Adjacent to 02F. Has a "moderate" chance of development for Tuesday, but downgrades to "low" after that (RSMC Nadi). Meanwhile, this is quoted from TCWC Wellington:

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 22-DEC-2017
Many other lows may form within the SPCZ, and the UK shows one low developing to the north of Fiji by early Friday and deepening to TC intensity from late Friday onwards, while moving to the southeast. UK shows this development under a diffluent region, ahead of an upper cut-off low/trough, and strengthening ridge aloft. EC shows the low slightly southwards under strong shear. EC ensemble shows 20-30% chance of TC development to the west of Fiji. Based on the difference between models, the chance of TC development to the north of Fiji from Friday onwards is LOW to MODERATE.

SPac is starting to ramp up. Can we see Fehi by Christmas? ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, this has moved into high shear. Extremely unlikely to become anything. ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, it's dead ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC)

04F.NONAME

Tropical Disturbance 04F

North of Vanuatu, but hasn't been declared yet as of the time I wrote this. Low chance in the long run, but overall doubtful that it will be Fehi. ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F

30 mph/998 mbar. Fehi anyone? JoeBillyBob

Tropical Disturbance 04F (2nd time)

Actually Fehi is out of the question. Latest RSMC Nadi outlook downgrades it back to a disturbance, with a "low" chance for Christmas and beyond that it's "very low". ~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 06:25, December 24, 2017 (UTC)

Still active, but pressure is now 1002 mbars. It won't develop anymore.~ Steve 🎅 HappyHolidays!🎄 21:25, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

January

AOI: West-Southwest of Southern Cooks

RSMC Nadi has a low pressure system up to the west-southwest of the Southern Cook Islands. They give it a "low" chance throughout the next 3 days. Doubtful if this will become much however. ~ Steve 🎉 2018is here!🎆 06:41, January 3, 2018 (UTC)

No longer mentioned. ~ Steve 🎉 2018is here!🎆 06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC)

General deadness

Something wrong with this basin this season? Even 2016-17 and 2011-12 had more disturbances by mid-January, and those were the two least active SPac TC seasons on record. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:30, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

05F.NONAME

Tropical Disturbance 05F

Up as an invest, and code orange on JTWC. Hopefully this finally becomes the first named storm of this season. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:48, January 26, 2018 (UTC)

Actually,this is still inport moresby's area of responsibility.JoeBillyBob (talk) 16:49, January 26, 2018 (UTC)

No it's not. None of Port Moresby's area of responsibility is located in the SPac basin, and this is in the SPac basin, not Aus. TG 2018 17:04, January 27, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm... I wonder if this is actually 94P, up as code red on JTWC way out near French Polynesia? Wikipedia claims that the system below (06F) is actually 05F, but we all know Wiki is not official (RSMC Nadi is). ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Actually, Wiki now shows this as a short-lived disturbance in the same region that Fehi developed in. I wonder if RSMC Nadi changed the storm's designation? I'd be surprised if this was actually completely separate from Fehi, because Wiki says this lasted from the 26th to the 27th which is at the same time Fehi might have been starting to develop in that area. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)
I'm very confused too. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, January 29, 2018 (UTC)
The track map for Fehi is uploaded on Wikipedia, and it seemed to originate in or near TCWC Port Moresby's area of responsibility before moving into this basin, while 05F was short-lived northwest of New Caledonia. This says that Fehi was in the same region (south of Solomon Islands, aka northwest of New Caledonia) on January 27, at the same time that "05F" was active in the same exact region. It's all probably the same system, unless 05F was another brief short-lived system that instantly merged with the developing Fehi due to extreme proximity. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:37, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

06F.FEHI

Tropical Disturbance 06F

RSMC Nadi seems to have this system, located west of Vanuatu, up as Tropical Disturbance 06F, not 05F. However, Wikipedia says this is 05F. Since RSMC Nadi is official, I might as well put up the header... So much confusion. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Someone has already edited the Wikipedia page. This is a different system from 05F. 06F may become Fehi soon; it's already a TS on the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:00, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Fehi

It has been named, first of the year! Not expected to intensify much though, and if anything, it will likely just weaken from here on out before restrengthening as an extratropical system. I would be surprised if 05F was actually completely separate from Fehi (see my comment in 05F's section for the reason why, and 05F's track map and duration on Wikipedia). ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fehi

a weak failica.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:45, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

94P.INVEST

I mentioned this system in 05F's section, but this was an unusual system near French Polynesia that had a TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

95P.INVEST

Up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL as a system southwest of Tonga. It's doubtful if this will develop though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:47, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

Dead...No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:37, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

February

07F.GITA

97P.INVEST

Another one, located west of Vanuatu and south of the Solomon Islands. Currently only found on Tropical Tidbits and NRL for the time being. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:26, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F

Now over Vanuatu, and has been designated "07F". ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Now has a "Moderate to High" chance for friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:46, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

Currently located northwest of Fiji. This is likely to become Gita. Code orange on JTWC, and a "High" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gita

Yay!No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC)

This is expected to become a cat 2 by JTWC as it heads south, but then west and moves over some islands south of Fiji. Ryan1000 23:32, February 9, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita

cat 3 right now :o:No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:08, February 11, 2018 (UTC)

Now forecast to be a 115 mph cat 3 tearing through the Tonga islands by Monday. This isn't looking good for them... Ryan1000 01:36, February 11, 2018 (UTC)
Gita is currently under strong shear, hopefully this keeps it from strengthening too much as it approaches Tonga. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, February 11, 2018 (UTC)
Cat 4 and expected to strengthen to a cat 5 upon hitting tonga.Xp.No.1 Mobile (talk) 16:12, February 11, 2018 (UTC)
Now up to 110 knots in 1-minute sustained.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:48, February 12, 2018 (UTC)
Latest RSMC Nadi advisory says 120 mph/105 knots with a 930 mbar pressure, putting it as a C4 under their scale. 110 knots/125 mph according to JTWC. I didn't really expect it to become such an intense beast. It's also about to impact Tonga tomorrow. R.I.P. Tonga ;-; ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:31, February 12, 2018 (UTC)
As far as I can recall, no category 5 storms (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, not their scale) have struck Tonga in the past, so Gita may end up being one of the worst, if not the worst, cyclone on record to strike southern Tonga. Winston came close, but it struck Fiji at that intensity instead. Ryan1000 10:30, February 12, 2018 (UTC)

According to Dr. Master's latest blog post on category 6, only one other storm, Ian of 2014, was this strong when it struck Tonga, but it struck the less populated northern islands. The folks in southern Tonga need all the help they can get right now, Gita may have been their worst storm ever. Ryan1000 00:27, February 13, 2018 (UTC)

Very strong, a very strong storm indeed. RIP Tonga. I hope that people in Tonga are okay... --70.190.21.73 02:28, February 13, 2018 (UTC)
Unexpectedly intensified to a category 5.No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:38, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


I hope Tonga doesn't have to go through an ordeal with Gita! Heard about this scary cyclone on FB today. D E S K R A A T I N G O 00:41, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

Although it’s a category 5 in 10-min, it is still a Category 3 in 1-min mean. :O Wow. I sure hope that Tonga recovers! --70.190.21.73 00:46, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
Wikipedia already reports 2 deaths in association with Gita in Tonga. :( The death toll will likely rise in the coming days. Let's hope they easily recover from what has been their strongest impact by a tropical cyclone in recorded history. Anyway, Gita is still a C5 (SPac scale). Sustained winds are currently equivalent to a strong C3/weak C4 on the SSHS. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:43, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

Gita is going down slowly as it passes New Caledonia. Winds have decreased to barely above Aus C3 status and SSHWS C1 status. Gita, however, is forecast to hit New Zealand's North Island as a sizeable post-TC. Hoping there's not going to be too much damage there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:34, February 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gita (2nd time)

weakening fast...No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:11, February 19, 2018 (UTC)

====Post-Tropical Cyclone Gita==== dead.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:11, February 19, 2018 (UTC)

Actually, Gita isn't yet dead. It's still tropical (barely), and advisories are still being issued from the JTWC as well as TCWC Wellington. However, Gita is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone within the next day. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:13, February 19, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gita

Now deemed post-tropical. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:17, February 20, 2018 (UTC)


Wikipedia still reports 2 deaths and unknown damages. Excluding the Tonga and Samoa hits, this was an awesome storm to track. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:15, February 22, 2018 (UTC)

08F.NONAME

Tropical Disturbance 08F (98P.INVEST)

Currently over Fiji. It has been designated "08F". ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08F

Upgraded to a tropical depression. Currently located southeast of Fiji and southeast of the above system. This is unlikely to develop further though. Code yellow on JTWC, and RSMC Nadi is also unenthusiastic about it. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC) Up to code orange on JTWC,and has a "low" chance on RSMC Nadi.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC has upgraded it to a code red.No.1 Mobile (talk) 16:48, February 10, 2018 (UTC)

And JTWC has cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:59, February 11, 2018 (UTC)
Still up on RSMC Nadi's TC Outlook as a 998 mbar TD. Won't develop further though. Our main focus right now is Gita. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:33, February 12, 2018 (UTC)
Completely dead now. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:43, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

March

96P.INVEST

Currently located about halfway between Fiji and New Zealand. Only found on Tropical Tidbits and NRL for the moment. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:04, March 1, 2018 (UTC)

09F.HOLA

97P.INVEST

Has a low chance of forming in the next 24 hours Roy25 23:34, March 3, 2018 (UTC)

Coded orange by the JTWC. Could be Hola in the next few days. Roy25 17:22, March 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 09F

TCFA issued.Sjmaven (talk) 18:41, March 5, 2018 (UTC)

Upgraded to code red by JTWC, Hola is coming! Roy25 22:55, March 5, 2018 (UTC)

He just said that.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:38, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09F

Upgraded to a TD proper by RSMC Nadi. Hola is likely here, but given that this is headed towards New Caledonia please don't get too strong. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Hola

40 mph/994 mbar.69.58.110.130 19:32, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Holy cow,C2 already!please please Please don't be a re-Gita...No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:33, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Well I wasn't suprised Hola was named, but it rapid intensified to a Cat 2? Oh no, hope it doesn't go to a full-blown Cat 5 like Gita! --Roy25 23:09, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hola

Wwhhat? CAT 4.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:46, March 7, 2018 (UTC)

Omg, this thing is rapidly intensifying! At this time, I won't be suprised if it is a Cat 5 in the next day or so. --Roy25 00:40, March 8, 2018 (UTC)
Eye has clouded over due to moderate wind shear. C5 may be out of the question now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:37, March 8, 2018 (UTC)
Downgraded to a Cat 3 on the Austrailian Scale --Roy25 01:13, March 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Hola (2nd time)

Downgraded to a Cat 2 tropical cyclone. Roy25 21:13, March 9, 2018 (UTC)

So far Wikipedia reports a death associated with this storm. Regardless, this has been a fantastic storm and luckily it doesn't appear to be as bad as Gita in terms of impacts. It's been pretty hard for me to post here regularly due to being busy IRL and college. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:42, March 10, 2018 (UTC)
JTWC has pulled the plug. TCWC Wellington expects extratropical transition to complete in the next 12 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:58, March 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hola

Now dead. --Roy25 19:57, March 11, 2018 (UTC)
found an awesome extratropical photo.
Vis0-lalo

10F.NONAME

90P.INVEST

Well what do ya know, an invest suddenly popped out of nowhere, and its at code orange by the JTWC. Wait, is this part of the Aus basin or the SPac basin? If it's in the Aus basin, then delete this. --Roy25 23:46, March 11, 2018 (UTC)

Aus basin, because it's currently at 159.8E, just slightly west of the 160E boundary between the Australian Region and SPac. I won't delete this section because it's likely it could move into this basin, even if only briefly, considering its extreme proximity to the boundary line. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:18, March 12, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F

about to move into the AUS basin,and already a storm according to JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:57, March 12, 2018 (UTC)

I think its the other way around. It formed in the AUS basin, and about to enter the SPac basin. I put this invest here by mistake thinking it was at this basin as this storm formed right next to the boundary. --Roy25 22:13, March 12, 2018 (UTC)

nope.Now named Linda.No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:45, March 13, 2018 (UTC)

11F.IRIS

coded orange on JTWC, which has updated their website suprisingly. Models take this to around 980 mbar storm. --Roy25 19:01, March 21, 2018 (UTC)

Downgraded to code yellow on JTWC. --Roy25 22:20, March 21, 2018 (UTC)
Upgrade back to a code orange on the JTWC. --Roy25 22:43, March 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11F

Code red on JTWC with a high chance of developing in the next three days.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:21, March 23, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Iris

Now named Iris. --Roy25 22:41, March 23, 2018 (UTC)

Expected to remain generally weak as it moves southward, but we can't rule out gradual intensification. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:52, March 24, 2018 (UTC)
Apparently according to Wikipedia, it exited this basin into the AUS basin, and also weakened. --Roy25 15:06, March 24, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Iris

Now back in this basin.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:29, March 26, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iris

Now a remnant low, and according to JTWC, has a low chance of reforming, while simultaneously giving out it's final advisory. --Roy25 22:09, March 27, 2018 (UTC)

This thing had moved back to the AUS basin days ago. --Roy25 Happy Easter!!! 16:24, March 31, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Strong Cyclone?

Apparently this model shows a possible cyclone developing in the next 72 hours and intensify into a strong cyclone peaking somewhere at around 920 mbar. --Roy25 21:23, March 25, 2018 (UTC)

12F.JOSIE

Interestingly has a moderate chance of forming by Fiji Meteorological Service, in charge of the SPac basin. This may be confirmed soon by JTWC. What I don't get is if this disturbance is the same as the storm the models forcasted to grow strong that I mentioned above. --Roy25 Happy Easter!!! 02:52, March 30, 2018 (UTC)

Not on the JTWC outlook yet, but being monitored on RSMC Nadi with a Moderate to High chance of development for the next few days. I'm feeling that this will become "Jo", but I highly doubt it will intensify to the 920 mbar monster shown by that GFS run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:59, March 30, 2018 (UTC)

97P.INVEST

Now on JTWC with low chance of forming. --Roy25 Happy Easter!!! 15:39, March 30, 2018 (UTC)

Coded orange on JTWC, this could be Jo in the next few days. --Roy25 Happy Easter!!! 21:55, March 30, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12F

Now a depression. Coded red on JTWC as well as TCFA declared. --Roy25 Happy Easter!!! 02:51, March 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Josie

Apparently upgraded. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:21, March 31, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Josie

Now post-tropical. --Roy25 03:18, April 3, 2018 (UTC)

Jose has unfortunately claimed 4 lives. --Roy25 03:18, April 3, 2018 (UTC)

April

13F.KENI

91P.INVEST

low chance of forming according to JTWC. --Roy25 02:52, April 5, 2018 (UTC)

Now coded orange by the JTWC. This could be Kala in the next few days. --Roy25 22:06, April 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13F

Now a depression, and likely to become Kala. --Roy25 02:48, April 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Keni

Why do you call it Kala?No.1 Mobile Page WallEdits 14:54, April 7, 2018 (UTC)

Interesting, same thing with Josie, Wikipedia called it "Jo", and it also called Keni "Kala". --Roy25 16:23, April 8, 2018 (UTC)
The FMC probably changed their mind halfway during the season and changed some of the names, like the 1989 typhoon season. Now it's just really confusing. Xyklone (talk) 23:55, April 8, 2018 (UTC)
Weird, maybe they thought "Jo" and "Kala" were too ugly or basic for a TC name (or something). I believe that "Jo" was too short and basic ("Joe" is better), and "Kala" probably sounded ugly to them (it also sounds a bit ugly to me as well). Josie and Keni are much better names IMHO. The possibility also exists that the names were vandalized on Wikipedia and no one noticed. Now I am not sure if "Liua" will be the next named storm... Anyway, Keni is expected to intensify and likely affect Fiji. I did miss out on Josie due to a particularly stressful week at college, but luckily that was no biggie (it did kill 4 people though and left 1 missing). Plus, another reason I missed out on Josie is because this is the time of year when my TC interest is at its lowest. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:58, April 9, 2018 (UTC)

Currently at cat 2...No.1 Mobile Page WallEdits 12:46, April 8, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Keni

Now a severe tropical cyclone, currently at AUS scale Cat 3. --Roy25 22:34, April 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Keni

Now post-tropical. Idk what the next name could be, it could be Liua (suppose to be the next name), or Lute (name from List E, which is a standby list. They have plucked Josie and Keni from that list instead of using Jo and Kala). --Roy25 22:36, April 11, 2018 (UTC)

Like I said before, it is so strange and unexpected that they would replace "Jo" and "Kala" with standby names. Jo was used back in 1999-2000, but it wasn't a particularly disastrous storm. Kala has never even been used before. They might have removed "Jo" retroactively due to the 1999-2000 storm which somewhat impacted Fiji (although I don't get why they would remove a name so late and when it caused so minimal damage). Kala could have been removed for religious reasons. I actually looked up Fiji's religions, and it appears that 27.9% believe in Hinduism, which contains Kaal, also known as Kala. Kala Bo and Kala Ratri are the names of Hindu goddesses. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:07, April 12, 2018 (UTC)
There's an explanation over here. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:58, April 14, 2018 (UTC)
Wow, interesting. --Roy25 18:01, April 14, 2018 (UTC)

14F.NONAME

Tropical Disturbance 14F

Currently designated as Invest 94P by NRL, and is given a medium chance of development by the JTWC. Conditions appear decent but models aren't very supportive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:46, April 18, 2018 (UTC)

Dead according to JTWC. --Roy25 22:34, April 20, 2018 (UTC)

May

Unusual Southeastern Pacific Subtropical Storm

I thought this would have been worth a mention... In the past few days, an extremely rare subtropical system developed just a few hundred miles off Chile. AFAIK, there has never ever been a real subtropical or tropical storm located in the region where this system developed in. Even stranger, this developed in May (the SHem equivalent of November) instead of a more typical time (January-March). You can view the system for yourself at this link. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:34, May 11, 2018 (UTC)

Really rare for storms to form in this region; the waters are too cold to sustain tropical cyclones. This storm also formed just after the end of this season. --Roy25 15:15, May 12, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Xyklone's Retirement Predictions

Fehi - 0.5%
Gita - 90%

Xyklone (talk) 05:12, February 18, 2018 (UTC)

There were only two named storms that formed in this season. Somehow, Gita was notable. We don’t normally do retirements here so I would rather save mine until later. --70.190.21.73 00:11, February 21, 2018 (UTC)

We do, but there are not very many users who track the SPac basin. TG 2018 00:03, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

TG's Retirements

  • Fehi: 0% - Typical SPac failicia.
  • Gita: 100% - Gita was the worst tropical cyclone on record to strike Tonga, and probably the costliest I have ever seen in the basin. SPac is weird with retirements, but Gita is sure to go. TG 2018 00:03, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Mobile's Retirements

  • Fehi:5% - Boring Failicia.
  • Gita:80% - Worst storm for Tonga in Decades,and did a whopping 187 million in damage,Though it only caused two deaths.
  • Hola:30% - Hola damages unknown,but only one death so far.
  • Iris:0% - Weakling who didn't affect land.
  • Josie:20% - 4 deaths,but that's probably not enough.

No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:38, March 6, 2018 (UTC)

Roy's Retirement Predictions

My retirement predictions:

Intensity colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ???


  • Fehi (0.5%) - Barely did anything, and wasn't that notable. It was also pretty weak, so it will stay
  • GITA (95%) - Was the most intense storm to impact Tonga, and was also destructive. It will go for sure
  • Hola (25%) - So far, no damage has been reported yet, and only 1 death reported.
  • Iris (0.001%) - Affected Australia but this storm isn't going.
  • Josie (3%) - Didn't last long, but has claimed 4 lives, but it's not going to be retired.
  • Keni (0.001%) - Damages and deaths are unknown, but this name isn't going

NOTE:

  1. Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
  2. The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
  3. Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

--Roy25 22:57, March 23, 2018 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Predictions

(see below all the storms for detailed explanations, lists, and colors of all my retirement percentages, storm intensities, and performance grades)

  • Fehi:
    • Retirement chance: 1% - $4.9 million in damage, but it's staying.
    • Performance grade: F - Not really the weakest fail. 55 mph in 10-min winds and 986 mbar pressure is enough to prevent it from falling to the "Z" grades.
  • Gita:
    • Retirement chance: 95% - Struck several islands throughout the basin, especially Tonga, where it was the most powerful strike by a TC in recorded history. But death and damage totals don't hold a candle to, say, Winston. I believe that $187 million in damage and only 2 deaths was less than initially feared. Retirement is very likely, but I wouldn't say it's certain.
    • Performance grade: A+ - Amazing for becoming a powerful C5 (Aus scale). But the storm's impacts and threats knock the grade down a spot from its intended grade (A++).
  • Hola:
    • Retirement chance: 37.5% - Three deaths were reported. Damages are still unknown, but it's likely that Vanuatu and New Caledonia received quite a bit of damage.
    • Performance grade: A- - RI'd quite unexpectedly, and reached a pretty nice intensity even though it did impact Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and surrounding regions.
  • Iris:
    • Retirement chance: ~0% - Never impacted land throughout its lifetime.
    • Performance grade: B+ - Woah, this lasted much longer than I ever even dreamed of. Plus, it reached 65 mph and 987 mbars! Totally beyond my expectations. Still, the relatively weak peak intensity of Iris prevents it from getting an "A" grade. Note: this grade counts the time spent in the Australian region. The intensity color doesn't though.
  • Josie:
    • Retirement chance: 17.5% - 4 lives have been taken away, with an additional one missing :( However, I doubt it will be retired.
    • Performance grade: F - Excluding impacts, this was a fail.
  • Keni:
    • Retirement chance: 10% - Damage and deaths are still not released. However, it impacted Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga. My retirement chance is based on how I feel the impacts might have been like.
    • Performance grade: C+ - Intensity is overshadowed by Gita and Hola, but it's still nice enough for me.

Retirement percentage colors: 0%, ~0% (lowest possible - non-PAGASA), 0.01%, 0.5%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, 15%, 17.5% (halfway between 10 and 25), 20%, 25% (1/4 chance), 30%, 35%, 37.5% (halfway between 25 and 50), 40%, 45%, 50% (1/2 chance), 55%, 60%, 62.5% (halfway between 50 and 75), 65%, 70%, 75% (3/4 chance), 80%, 85%, 87.5% (halfway between 75 and 100), 90%, 95%, 99.9%, ~100% (highest possible - non-PAGASA), 100%

  • Italicized indicates percentages that are more likely to be used, while some explanations (for why many percentages were chosen to be italicized) are in parentheses. The non-italicized percentages are only used if I can't decide which italicized percentage would be better used for a storm.
  • The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
  • This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.

Intensity colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (up to 156 mph), C5 (≥157 mph)

  • All use the Australian scale.
  • Dark red's lower limit is chosen because that's the point when a SPac storm becomes an official C5 on both this scale and the SSHWS.

Grading colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, F, Z, Z-(x∞)

  • Grading is mainly based on factors such as intensity, longevity, if it defied forecasts (or stayed weaker than expected), how resilient it was, or how unusual it was. For example, a C5 will get a much higher grade than a TS. A storm that lasted 20 days will get a much higher grade than a storm that lasted only 2 days. A storm that becomes a C3 despite top forecasts of only C1 will get a higher grade than a C3 that was originally expected by forecasters to become at least a C4. A storm that fights through a high shear environment will receive a much higher grade than a storm that dies within a low shear environment. Lastly, a storm that forms in March in the Atlantic, regardless of anything else, will receive a much higher grade than comparably intense storms that occur during the main Atlantic season bounds.
  • Damage and deaths slightly affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole letter, or 3 spots (ex. from A to B or A+++(x∞) to A) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.
  • A+++(x∞) is a strict rating used for only the best of the best. This grade can be summarized as A, and an infinite number of "+" signs following the letter. "x" is used in this grade as a multiplying sign. If a storm receives this grade, it is likely because it broke the most unusual records known to man, became among the most powerful systems known (ex. Patricia '15), lasted a record length of time (John '94 for example), reached a strong intensity during an unusual time of year (ex. a Central Pacific major hurricane in March), defied forecasts in an unprecedented way (ex. a storm that was only forecast to be a TS by even the most aggressive models ends up strengthening to at least a major hurricane), or intensifies in a very hostile environment. Can also be given to storms that do certain things that never happened before, such as a C5 Atlantic fishspinner.
  • On the other hand, Z-(x∞) is only used for the absolutely most pathetic storms ever. This grade can be summarized as Z, and an infinite number of "-" signs following the letter. "x" is also used in this grade as a multiplying sign. If a storm receives this grade, it is likely because it peaked as a weak TS despite forecasts of at least hurricane strength by even the most conservative models, lasted less than a day from formation to dissipation, died in a very favorable environment, left a hyped up record tied or un-broken (ex. Philippe '17 left the season tied for most consecutive Atlantic hurricanes, and at the same time was a very pathetic storm), or in extreme cases, is the ultimate name-waster because it is determined in post-analysis to have only been a tropical depression instead of a named TS (ex. Gabrielle '13 if it hadn't regenerated). Regular very weak tropical storms that dissipate because they were stuck in a hostile environment their whole lives, or were never expected to surpass TS intensity by even the most aggressive models, do not receive this grade.
  • Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:24, March 11, 2018 (UTC)

Bluecaner's predictions

Fehi - 20% (D) - In the SPac, names are retired easily, yet they probably won't retire this one. The grade D because this was pretty much a fail, but 986 Mbar

Gita - 100% (B+) - Gita wrecked Tonga, you get the point. The grade B+ because while this storm was strong, it hit HARD. (Replacement pick: Gaia, Gabi, Gagana)

Hola - 80% (A) - SPac can retire names pretty easily, so this one will probably be retired. The grade A because, it was somewhat strong, its impact downgrade it from A+ (Replacement picks: Hadia, Hadu, Hae)

Iris - 0% (S) - Didn't impact land. The grade S because Iris NEVER GAVE UP! THREE WEEKS!

Josie - 45% (Z+) - SPac retires names easily, but Josie was weak,. The grade Z+ because, like Campeka from the australian region, Josie was a fail that did damage, so yeah.

Keni - 40% (A-) - No damage has been reported, but it hit Vanuatu, and it wasn't a fail and it was in the SPac basin. The grade A- because it was somewhat strong compared to other systems