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This is the forum page for the 2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2018): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


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PreseasonEdit

90S.INVESTEdit

Unexpectedly, one invest on the Southwestern Indian Ocean just formed. It's at a low chance of formation according to JTWC. I doubt this would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:49, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Dissipated (according to JTWC). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:04, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
Saw this a couple days ago on JTWC and was a bit surprised to see something being monitored down there during their winter. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:03, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

91S.INVESTEdit

Don't think many will read this, but we have another unusual early-season invest here in the SWIO. The JTWC is monitoring it with a low chance of development. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:41, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

And another one...Β Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:57, September 11, 2017 (UTC)

92S.INVESTEdit

Here to report that another pre-season invest has formed west of the Seychelles. And it's up on JTWC with code yellow (low chance of developing). ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:20, September 28, 2017 (UTC)

Ok, the pre-season invests are getting annoying now.Β Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:32, September 28, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC has now dropped it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 18:22, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

NovemberEdit

94S.INVESTEdit

This was a short-lived invest that I remember seeing on Tropical Tidbits a couple days ago. It's dead now. The SHem should start ramping up soon. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:58, November 18, 2017 (UTC)

DecemberEdit

99S.INVESTEdit

North of Madagascar. No agency expects development, yet. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:10, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

Now low risk on Meteo France. Still no mention on JTWC. Ava, anyone? ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:37, December 6, 2017 (UTC)
Off the Mateo France outlook and about to make landfall near the Tanzania-Mozambique border. This won't develop anymore. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:35, December 9, 2017 (UTC)

90S.INVESTEdit

A new invest just northeast of Madagascar. Low risk on Mateo France, and appears to have more Ava potential than 99S ever did. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:35, December 9, 2017 (UTC)

Long dead... ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 21:37, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

03S.AVAEdit

94S.INVESTEdit

New one out in open ocean, up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL. Medium risk on TCWC Reunion. Could this be Ava? ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 21:37, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

Up on JTWC with low chance, and high risk (code red) on TCWC Reunion. Here comes the season's first storm! ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 06:45, December 29, 2017 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 01Edit

25 mph/1006 mbar,should develop soon.JoeBillyBob (talk) 06:36, December 30, 2017 (UTC)

looks to have plenty of model support.JoeBillyBob (talk) 11:53, December 29, 2017 (UTC)
Now code orange on JTWC. TCWC Reunion appears to forecast a moderately strong cyclone heading towards northern Madagascar. ~ Steve Goodbye2017!⚰️ 05:50, December 31, 2017 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm AvaEdit

Fresh from TCWC Reunion: it has been named "Ava". Expected to make landfall on the eastern Madagascar coast on the 5th, likely strengthening more along the way. ~ Steve πŸŽ‰ 2018is here!πŸŽ† 06:50, January 3, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm AvaEdit

That was fast.60 mph/987 mbars.123.243.135.221 09:38, January 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone AvaEdit

Continues to intensify, 85 mph (JTWC 1-min) and 80 mph (10-min)/970 mbars. Expected to run parallel to the eastern Madagascar coast, and any population centers along that coast could receive plenty of impacts. JTWC forecasts a strong cyclone moving parallel to the coast (not good for them) while TCWC Reunion forecasts it to move inland and become a remnant low, before regenerating off the coast of southeastern Madagascar. ~ Steve πŸŽ‰ 2018is here!πŸŽ† 06:51, January 5, 2018 (UTC)

Overland Depression AvaEdit

Been an overland depression for a while now, and is just now moving back out to sea. It has some reintensification potential as it moves southeast of Madagascar. Hopefully it wasn't too bad there. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:49, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Ava (2nd time)Edit

Back to a MTS, but unlikely to intensify much. Its structure got shredded by Madagascar. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:40, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of AvaEdit

Been dead for a couple days already. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:58, January 12, 2018 (UTC)

JanuaryEdit

04S.IRVINGEdit

95S.INVESTEdit

On the JTWC outlook with a high chance of forming. Hi!-70.190.21.73 17:51, January 5, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm IrvingEdit

Actually, this has been named for at least a day now and has recently moved into this basin from the Australian region. Irving is expected to gradually intensify to about "Tropical Cyclone" intensity while staying out to sea. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:49, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm IrvingEdit

Uppped to STS, but JTWC already has this at C1 status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:38, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone IrvingEdit

This was Irving's maximum intensity. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:03, January 12, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of IrvingEdit

Dead since the 9th. I haven't really had time to update this due to college and real life. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:03, January 12, 2018 (UTC)

05S.BERGUITTAEdit

Zone of Disturbed Weather 02Edit

High chance on JTWC and TCWC Reunion has declared it a "Zone of Disturbed Weather". It's currently out in open sea, but is likely to track towards Madagascar in the long run. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:03, January 12, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone BerguittaEdit

This has become very intense and is now the equivalent to a major hurricane. It looks like a threat to Mauritius and Reunion. Also, this wiki has gone dead quiet. This will be my last post on this wiki until May, unless a surprise pops up. I'd rather not keep talking to myself. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:35, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

Berguitta just weakened to Category 2 status according to JTWC. Probably upwelling since it's been stationary for a couple of days already. Sorry for inactivity, I guess we're all busy (like me :/) or bored with this season's general SHEM inactivity... ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:27, January 16, 2018 (UTC)
I’ve been busy, but trying to post more. Also Berguitta is now a Category 1. Leeboy100 Hello!! 01:22, January 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BerguittaEdit

Back down to just a TC, intensity is at 85 kt/963 mbar. This could be potentially devastating for Mauritius and Reunion. TG 2018 16:16, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

Looks like Berguitta will hit the two islands in a day or two. Mauritius and Reunion are no stranger to tropical cyclones; in fact, the wettest tropical cyclones in the world have dropped enormous amounts of rainfall on the two islands, though the low intensity of this storm and it's forward speed should hopefully keep it from being too bad. Worst case is, this could stall like Gamede of 2007 or Hyancithe of 1980 and drop several feet of rain on the islands. But that aside, yeah, we usually don't pay as much attention to the SHem as we do the NHem, but sometimes activity kicks up here if a notable storm forms (like Winston). Ryan1000 05:47, January 17, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm BerguittaEdit

I've noticed on my weather page on Instagram, many people were wondering if it would be like Hyacinthe or Firinga. Anyways, Berguitta is now at 80 kt/965 mbar (1-min sustained). 75 kt/965 mbar (10-min sustained). TG 2018 13:26, January 17, 2018 (UTC)

Center just passed very close to Mauritius. La Reunion is next in the line of fire. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:10, January 18, 2018 (UTC)
Berguitta just missed Reunion. Fortunately, Berguitta is not as bad as what the original forecast looked like. TG 2018 14:12, January 18, 2018 (UTC)
Currently the storm has caused at least 12 million in damage and at least 1 death. Hopefully it doesn't get much worse than that. Ryan1000 21:08, January 19, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm BerguittaEdit

Downgraded back to a moderate TS and expected to continue weakening from here on out. Sorry to hear the impacts. :( Also, I didn't expect to see all of you guys suddenly posting after my "last post until May"! As long as there's still some activity here, I guess I will continue posting through the NHem off-season. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:56, January 19, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of BerguittaEdit

Luckily, this storm has finally dissipated, and I hope that damage total and death toll stays the same. We do not need a destructive SWIO storm again. Ava was already enough when it caused 51 fatalities in Madagascar. TG 2018 14:40, January 20, 2018 (UTC)

06S.NONAMEEdit

Tropical Depression 04Edit

This was a short-lived TD that made landfall in northern Mozambique. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:35, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

Overland Depression 04Edit

And it's dying already. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:25, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 04Edit

And it died off quickly. Hi!-70.190.21.73 14:25, January 17, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of 04 (99S.INVEST)Edit

It's actually back up on JTWC, with code yellow (low chance) as it appears to be moving back over water. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:58, January 19, 2018 (UTC)

Still at code yellow, but I think there could be a slight chance that it could become a weak Cebile before running back into Mozambique or Madagascar. I really hope this hasn't caused major flooding in that country, as it has been stalled over the same general area of Mozambique since January 15. TG 2018 14:42, January 20, 2018 (UTC)
I hope it wasn't too flooding either. This system has actually crossed Madagascar and is now entering the open Indian, where a chance of redevelopment could exist. I don't think I've ever heard of a storm make landfall in Mozambique and then move back out into the open Indian (not the Mozambique Channel, but everything east of Madagascar). Still code yellow per JTWC. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:03, January 22, 2018 (UTC)
Code orange on jtwc.JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:01, January 24, 2018 (UTC)
And it's dissipated. Appears to have been sheared to death. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:27, January 24, 2018 (UTC)

05S.CEBILEEdit

90S.INVESTEdit

on tropical tidbits.JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:01, January 24, 2018 (UTC)

Okay, first of all, THIS IS NOT EVEN A CLASSIFIED STORM. Secondly, if this were to be invested, it would be Invest 90S, not 91S. Please pay attention to JTWC before posting things that are not true. Sorry to come off sounding rude. TG 2018 21:32, January 24, 2018 (UTC)
JTWC now has it at code orange.69.165.141.93 19:18, January 25, 2018 (UTC)
High chance on RSMC la reunion for 2 days- 35 Mph TD as per JTWCJoeBillyBob (talk) 04:22, January 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 05Edit

Now a TD. Expected to become a strong Cebile later on. TG 2018 16:39, January 27, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm CebileEdit

I have no words.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:45, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm CebileEdit

Wtf?No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:50, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

I don't get what's so surprising about this. It's out in open ocean, in favorable enough conditions for strengthening. TCWC Reunion is now forecasting further intensification to an "Intense Tropical Cyclone". It will probably approach or even surpass Berguitta in strength. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:47, January 28, 2018 (UTC)
I hope this becomes a C5-equivalent storm, since it's in the open ocean. And I agree with Steve, nothing is surprising here. It's the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:56, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone CebileEdit

Still rapidly intensifying, up to 90 kt 1-min, and 95 kt 10-min. Quite an incredible rate of intensification, Cebile was only 35 kt 24 hours ago. Kiewii 15:13, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, it's been rapidly intensifying lately! I'm pretty surprised that it's already an "intense tropical cyclone". Now it's 100 knots (10-min), which is the equivalent of a C3 major hurricane in the Atlantic and EPac, and 944 mbars. It would be cool if it reached C5-equivalent. C5 fishspinners are my favorite storms to look at and track. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:23, January 29, 2018 (UTC)
Weakening now and down to C3 per JTWC. ;-; ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:39, January 29, 2018 (UTC)
Cebile looks better today, showing annular characteristics and a large eye. I wonder if re-intensification is possible? - Garfield

Tropical Cyclone Cebile (2nd time)Edit

back down to TC status,but expected to restrengthen.JoeBillyBob (talk) 20:06, January 30, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile (2nd time)Edit

Back to a minimal ITC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:44, February 1, 2018 (UTC) It's been holding its own for a while, but it'll probably turn southeast and dissipate sometime next week. Ryan1000 06:49, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cebile (3rd time)Edit

briefly dipped below ITC status.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile (3rd time)Edit

Wow,Cebile is going to have so much ACE.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:38, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

Yep. I'm quite surprised at how long this has been holding on. It should finally begin to weaken after tonight. Luckily it stayed out to sea and didn't affect land. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:20, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cebile (4thΒ time)Edit

Yep,only weakening from her on out.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 70 knots (80 mph)/964 mbars. I was quite impressed by Cebile's strength and longevity. Farewell to what has been an amazing tropical cyclone.Β ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 21:33, February 3, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Cebile (2nd time)Edit

Below TC status.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Cebile (2nd time)Edit

going through all of these.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of CebileEdit

dead...No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC is actually still issuing advisories on it, with a 50 mph/45 knot windspeed observed. But it's dead according to TCWC Reunion. Farewell to a nice, long-lived and strong fishspinner. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:23, February 8, 2018 (UTC)
100% dead now. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:41, February 12, 2018 (UTC)

FebruaryEdit

90S.INVESTEdit

Currently over southern Madagascar. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:41, February 12, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. The SWIO returns to inactivity. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:44, February 17, 2018 (UTC)