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This is the forum page for the 2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season.

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NovemberEdit

TCWC Jakarta Tropical Low (93S.INVEST)Edit

The first invest of the season is here (I think). It's currently in TCWC Jakarta's region and I doubt it will become anything significant. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:49, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

There was one in August, but this forum wasn't created yet. However, this one is much weaker and probably won't be anything. TG 11:43, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

02U.CEMPAKAEdit

95S.INVESTEdit

New one up on Tropical Tidbits/NRL located just south of Jakarta. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:13, November 20, 2017 (UTC)

This looks like something we'll have to watch. Models spin it up into a pretty strong cyclone in a couple days. Hilda anyone? - Garfield

Now low chance on JTWC. This has some real potential to be Hilda. Here comes the first TC of the SHem season! ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 21:08, November 21, 2017 (UTC)
Off JTWC, but still active as an invest. ~ Steve πŸ¦ƒ HappyThanksgiving!πŸ‘ͺ 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC)
On JWTC again as ~~Low chances~~Β  Β  JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:28, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

Code yellow again. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

!CODE RED!(ON JTWC)!WARNING! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:22, November 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone CempakaEdit

aaaaaand its here and not expected to develop further. JoeBillyBob (talk) 05:05, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

This is the first TCWC Jakarta system since Bakung of December 2014. Not very often do we see storms here. Anyway this should remain weak. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:18, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
actually,the latest bulletin from TCWC Jakarta says it;s going to intensify toΒ  45 knots or more JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:06, November 28, 2017 (UTC)
Not too bad for a TCWC Jakarta storm so far. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, November 28, 2017 (UTC)
Wikipedia reports that the cyclone has already caused 11 fatalities. :( ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC just cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:46, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression CempakaΒ Edit

Oh well.Congrats on being the earliest named storm since 2013 and the earliest TCWC named storm since 2007! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:02, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of CempakaEdit

Has been dropped by TCWC Jakarta, and TCWC Perth doesn't expect much redevelopment. JTWC has also dropped it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

03U.DAHLIAEdit

96S.INVESTEdit

Code yellow on JTWC and located west of Sumatra. ~ Steve πŸ¦ƒ HappyThanksgiving!πŸ‘ͺ 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC)

Now orange. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Low 03UEdit

Now numbered as "03U". Also TCWC Jakarta forecasts it to intensify into a C1 tropical cyclone. Could we already see Dahlia? Two TCWC Jakarta named storms within the span of a week would be insane, considering how inactive it usually is there. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC)

There is a TCFA on JTWC now.Β  JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:07, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone DahliaEdit

And so we do. I wonder if this made the record books for the most active start to the TCWC area of responsibility. TG My Birthday 20:51, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Sadly,I think 2001-02 did better. JoeBillyBob (talk) 21:21, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

That was in the span of a whole season, not two days. TG My Birthday
This is actually the first time there have been 2 or more TCWC Jakarta named systems during the whole season since they took over the region in 2007. Even stranger, it's within the span of a week! :O Obviously the most active start in TCWC Jakarta records dating to 2007. Current intensity of Dahlia is 40 mph/998 mbars. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
Ikr. That was the strangest thing that had ever happened to this basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:33, November 30, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, it surely is. Current intensity is 50 mph/993 mbars. TCWC Perth forecasts a C3 (Australian scale) cyclone. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:32, December 1, 2017 (UTC)
Now 60 mph and a category 2,according toΒ TCWC's darwin and perth. JoeBillyBob (talk) 08:36, December 1, 2017 (UTC)
Downgraded to a Category 1, 40 mph/996 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:43, December 2, 2017 (UTC)
And expected to weaken further. At least it is staying out to sea and never harmed anyone, unlike the deadly Cempaka and Ockhi... ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:09, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone DahliaEdit

Just after writing the above post, I checked BOM and it has unexpectedly dissipated. Might reintensify to a C1 though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:27, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

Actually I don't think that materialized. Now not expected to redevelop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 02:00, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

TCWC Darwin Tropical LowEdit

there is another tropical low in the Australian basin. JoeBillyBob (talk) 00:24, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

In the Banda Sea and not expected to develop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:10, November 26, 2017 (UTC)
long dead.... JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:53, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

DecemberEdit

Tropical Low west of the Timor Sea (97S.INVEST)Edit

Another one expected to move southwest into roughly where Dahlia is supposed to be now. Not going to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, December 1, 2017 (UTC)

Yeah, it won't develop tbh. And it appears to have been invested, because 97S is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:10, December 3, 2017 (UTC)
Dead ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Low south of the Solomon Islands (98P.INVEST)Edit

Being monitored on BOM's eastern outlook. See the South Pacific forum for a couple more posts concerning this system. Highly doubt this will become much. ~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

It dissipated. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:24, December 6, 2017 (UTC)

Timor Sea tropical lowEdit

Currently on TCWC Darwin and TCWC Jakarta's outlooks. It's doubtful if this will be anything significant, however. ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, I think I got things mixed up. This might actually have been the below system. ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 21:33, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

02S.HILDAEdit

Tropical low just north of the Indonesian Archipelago (92S.INVEST)Edit

Not yet a full-fledged tropical low as of the time of this writing. However, it has a decent chance to develop in the long run. TCWC Perth has it up with a "moderate" chance for Tuesday and it could track towards the north Kimberley coast. Hilda, anyone? ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC)

Actually, Steve, this is supposed to become a 905 mbar C5 by December 26. This will be very significant. TG My Birthday 13:59, December 24, 2017 (UTC)
BoM gives this a high chance of developing into a TC by 28 December. There again both the GFS and ECMWF don't do too much with this right now, likely due to land interaction. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, December 25, 2017 (UTC)
I feel like we will going to see another destructive cyclone. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:15, December 25, 2017 (UTC)
The JTWC has it on code orange. It is Invest 92S as per the JTWC.--182.58.54.72 05:05, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

The BOM is forecasting a C1 (Aus. scale) cyclone could come out of this. Land interaction with the region around Broome should prevent this from becoming a monster. And TG, whatever crazy unreliable model you were looking at didn't materialize. There was no way for this system to rapidly develop into a C5 in only 2 days (from the time of your post to today, the 26th). I'd look up more realistic models if I wanted to post about it. ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 21:33, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone HildaEdit

it's here.45 mph/990 mbar.JoeBillyBob (talk) 11:29, December 27, 2017 (UTC)

60 mph/985 mbar,even though it's over land rn.JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:15, December 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Low HildaEdit

now a TD.998 mbar/35mph..JoeBillyBob (talk) 09:06, December 28, 2017 (UTC)

Yeah this is going to be gone soon. And Steve, didn't you see the GFS run from December 23? TG My Birthday 00:36, December 29, 2017 (UTC)
I don't really check models that often. Surprising that the GFS would forecast such a monster within a short span of time. Anyway, this was a short-lived weak named storm. It was close to land so that was to be expected. It's still on BOM's western region outlook as a tropical low, but otherwise it's dead. ~ Steve πŸŽ… HappyHolidays!πŸŽ„ 06:42, December 29, 2017 (UTC)

JanuaryEdit

04S.IRVINGEdit

Tropical Low Southwest of SumatraEdit

Up on BOM's western outlook with a "low" chance on Saturday, before it moves out of region. Might have long run potential though ~ Steve πŸŽ‰ 2018is here!πŸŽ† 06:43, January 3, 2018 (UTC)

95S.INVESTEdit

Now invested, and BOM gives it a "high" chance for Saturday. Code yellow on JTWC, and code red on TCWC Reunion's outlook. This is likely to become Berguitta in the SWIO, unless it suddenly intensifies before then. ~ Steve πŸŽ‰ 2018is here!πŸŽ† 06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone IrvingEdit

It has been named as a tropical system before crossing into the SWIO basin. Further comments can be made on that respective forum page. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

09U.JOYCEEdit

Tropical Low 09UEdit

Currently in the Timor Sea and expected to move towards the northern Kimberly coast. This has a "high" chance for Wednesday, and could be a candidate for Joyce. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

Yep, I think you're right. This could become Joyce and then cross into SWIO. GFS brings it to 955-960 millibars while in the SWIO. It could at least become a C3 (Aus) before crossing out of the basin. TG 2018 22:03, January 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone JoyceEdit

Now a category 1 system according to BOM, and affecting the area between Broome and Port Hedland. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:47, January 12, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone JoyceEdit

Died off three days ago. Hi!-70.190.21.73 14:33, January 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low east of Christmas IslandEdit

Although mentioned on BOM's western outlook, it is very doubtful that this will develop. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC)

Apparently it dissipated. TG 2018 22:05, January 8, 2018 (UTC)

Trough near Coco IslandsEdit

Has a "Low" chance through the weekend. Very doubtful that this will develop, though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§Β 04:47, January 12, 2018 (UTC)

Long dead. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC)

11L.NONAMEEdit

90P/90S.INVESTEdit

Located near Top End, but strangely has two invest designations. According to BOM, the risk for a tropical cyclone increases for northern Western Australia next week. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC)

currently at a pressure of 999 hPa...I think.JoeBillyBob (talk) 06:18, January 22, 2018 (UTC)

pretty much dead,and expected to stay well inland. 192.171.48.37

Yep, this won't develop anymore. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:50, January 28, 2018 (UTC)
Actually, JTWC put this up as code yellow. It's doubtful that this will move back out to sea and develop though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:16, January 29, 2018 (UTC)
Moving back out to seaa with a code yellow.JoeBillyBob (talk) 20:22, January 29, 2018 (UTC)
Off of JTWC for a while now. And I already posted that JTWC had it up as code yellow at that time. Unfortunately, this tropical low was worse than Hilda and Joyce. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 21:36, February 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low east southeast of the Cocos IslandsEdit

Currently on BOM's western outlook as a tropical low in a monsoon trough, but highly unlikely to develop. It's expected to drift towards the Cocos Islands. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:04, January 22, 2018 (UTC)

GFS low (92P.INVEST)Edit

currently only on tropical tidbits. 192.171.48.37

Off the east coast with a 'Moderate' chance for sunday.JoeBillyBob (talk) 17:11, January 27, 2018 (UTC)

If I'm getting it right, this is now TC 08P/06F in the SPac. See that basin forum for more information regarding this system. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:54, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

96P.INVESTEdit

BOM is giving this a "moderate" chance for Thursday. The risk for a TC increases in this area in the near future due to a strengthening monsoon flow. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:19, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Code Yellow on jtwc.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:36, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

No longer on JTWC. TCWC Wellington is actually calling this system "Tropical depression 96P". Extremely unlikely to develop further though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:23, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

FebruaryEdit

99P.INVESTEdit

BOM's eastern outlook says that a tropical low may form here. TC development is somewhat possible this weekend, with a "low" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 01:19, February 8, 2018 (UTC)

It's now a "very low" chance and won't develop anymore. Goodbye failed invest. For the record, this invest was in the Coral Sea region. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:35, February 12, 2018 (UTC)

17U.KELVINEdit

91P/S.INVESTEdit

Currently in TCWC Darwin's area of responsibility. Pressure is 1007 mb. It's expected to move towards the Kimberly coast in the coming days, with a low chance of development for Wednesday and Thursday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:38, February 12, 2018 (UTC)

Has two invest designations,but has a code orange on JTWC and a moderate chance for Friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:35, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low 17UEdit

Now designated by BOM, and has a "high" chance of development starting Friday (western region outlook). Code orange on JTWC. Here comes Kelvin! ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:49, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

Not developing.here's hoping it doesn't bust.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:36, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
It’s about to make landfall in Australia. Not going to be named though. --70.190.21.73 04:25, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
It's not moving that quickly, landfall is more than 24 hours away. Which means, unfortunately, it will have time to intensify. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:36, February 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KelvinEdit

Named. Turns out my earlier post was wrong, landfall is around 12 hours away. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:09, February 17, 2018 (UTC)

It has now intensified into a category 2 cyclone in 10-min mean. --70.190.21.73 23:26, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
Intensified into a category 1-equivalent cyclone over land. (1 min winds)Β Fr3d (talk) 03:14, February 18, 2018 (UTC)
It looks like it's still going...--Isaac829E-Mail 03:44, February 18, 2018 (UTC)
Kelvin is still maintaining and organizingΒ a well-defined eye on land, strange... Fr3d (talk) 05:04, February 18, 2018 (UTC)
Still looks unusually organized and defined for a storm that had made landfall. Xyklone (talk) 06:01, February 18, 2018 (UTC)
According to JTWC Dvorak estimates hit T5.0 just before landfall. Wow. And BoM even claims that it's satellite presentation over land is better than it ever was over water. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:12, February 18, 2018 (UTC)

That is because of the brown ocean effectSwirling Magnetar (talk) 15:47, February 18, 2018 (UTC) back down to C1 but weakening much slower than anticipated.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:13, February 19, 2018 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone KelvinEdit

No longer has gales extending 3/4 around the centre, but still has 10-min winds of 35 knots. Thankfully Kelvin made landfall in a very sparsely populated area, so there weren't any fatalities or severe damage. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:09, February 19, 2018 (UTC)


That's good, I thought that this system could have been something significant or devastatingΒ for the region. Luckily that wasn't the case. I haven't posted on Kelvin while it was tropical because I was busy. ~ Steve ❄ Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:19, February 22, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

TG's RetirementsEdit

Cempaka was a notable storm so I guess it won't hurt to begin this now: (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

  • Cempaka: 20% - I really had to put some thought into this one. TCWC Jakarta has not retired a name before, but 41 fatalities were caused by this storm in Indonesia, near the Jakarta area. I am not confident about retirement, but it's still a notable storm, even though it was a failicia.
  • Dahlia: 0% - It had the potential to strike Australia as a C3 storm on the Aus scale, but it instead recurved back out to sea and dissipated.
  • Hilda: 10% - Like Cempaka, I don't feel confident about retirement, but Australia is very strange with retirements.
  • Irving: 0% - Irving didn't even last as a named storm for two days before crossing into the SWIO basin, becoming a slightly more interesting storm there. TG 2018 22:00, January 8, 2018 (UTC)