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Current Systems: SUBTROPICAL STORM GUARÁ


This is the forum page for the 2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season.

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NovemberEdit

TCWC Jakarta Tropical Low (93S.INVEST)Edit

The first invest of the season is here (I think). It's currently in TCWC Jakarta's region and I doubt it will become anything significant. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:49, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

There was one in August, but this forum wasn't created yet. However, this one is much weaker and probably won't be anything. TG 11:43, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

02U.CEMPAKAEdit

95S.INVESTEdit

New one up on Tropical Tidbits/NRL located just south of Jakarta. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:13, November 20, 2017 (UTC)

This looks like something we'll have to watch. Models spin it up into a pretty strong cyclone in a couple days. Hilda anyone? - Garfield

Now low chance on JTWC. This has some real potential to be Hilda. Here comes the first TC of the SHem season! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:08, November 21, 2017 (UTC)
Off JTWC, but still active as an invest. ~ Steve 🦃 HappyThanksgiving!👪 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC)
On JWTC again as ~~Low chances~~    JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:28, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

Code yellow again. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

!CODE RED!(ON JTWC)!WARNING! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:22, November 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone CempakaEdit

aaaaaand its here and not expected to develop further. JoeBillyBob (talk) 05:05, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

This is the first TCWC Jakarta system since Bakung of December 2014. Not very often do we see storms here. Anyway this should remain weak. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:18, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
actually,the latest bulletin from TCWC Jakarta says it;s going to intensify to  45 knots or more JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:06, November 28, 2017 (UTC)
Not too bad for a TCWC Jakarta storm so far. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, November 28, 2017 (UTC)
Wikipedia reports that the cyclone has already caused 11 fatalities. :( ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC)
JTWC just cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:46, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Cempaka Edit

Oh well.Congrats on being the earliest named storm since 2013 and the earliest TCWC named storm since 2007! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:02, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of CempakaEdit

Has been dropped by TCWC Jakarta, and TCWC Perth doesn't expect much redevelopment. JTWC has also dropped it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

03U.DAHLIAEdit

96S.INVESTEdit

Code yellow on JTWC and located west of Sumatra. ~ Steve 🦃 HappyThanksgiving!👪 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC)

Now orange. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Low 03UEdit

Now numbered as "03U". Also TCWC Jakarta forecasts it to intensify into a C1 tropical cyclone. Could we already see Dahlia? Two TCWC Jakarta named storms within the span of a week would be insane, considering how inactive it usually is there. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC)

There is a TCFA on JTWC now.  JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:07, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone DahliaEdit

And so we do. I wonder if this made the record books for the most active start to the TCWC area of responsibility. TG My Birthday 20:51, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

Sadly,I think 2001-02 did better. JoeBillyBob (talk) 21:21, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

That was in the span of a whole season, not two days. TG My Birthday
This is actually the first time there have been 2 or more TCWC Jakarta named systems during the whole season since they took over the region in 2007. Even stranger, it's within the span of a week! :O Obviously the most active start in TCWC Jakarta records dating to 2007. Current intensity of Dahlia is 40 mph/998 mbars. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC)
Ikr. That was the strangest thing that had ever happened to this basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:33, November 30, 2017 (UTC)
Yep, it surely is. Current intensity is 50 mph/993 mbars. TCWC Perth forecasts a C3 (Australian scale) cyclone. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:32, December 1, 2017 (UTC)
Now 60 mph and a category 2,according to TCWC's darwin and perth. JoeBillyBob (talk) 08:36, December 1, 2017 (UTC)
Downgraded to a Category 1, 40 mph/996 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:43, December 2, 2017 (UTC)
And expected to weaken further. At least it is staying out to sea and never harmed anyone, unlike the deadly Cempaka and Ockhi... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:09, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone DahliaEdit

Just after writing the above post, I checked BOM and it has unexpectedly dissipated. Might reintensify to a C1 though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:27, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

Actually I don't think that materialized. Now not expected to redevelop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:00, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

TCWC Darwin Tropical LowEdit

there is another tropical low in the Australian basin. JoeBillyBob (talk) 00:24, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

In the Banda Sea and not expected to develop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:10, November 26, 2017 (UTC)
long dead.... JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:53, November 29, 2017 (UTC)

DecemberEdit

Tropical Low west of the Timor Sea (97S.INVEST)Edit

Another one expected to move southwest into roughly where Dahlia is supposed to be now. Not going to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, December 1, 2017 (UTC)

Yeah, it won't develop tbh. And it appears to have been invested, because 97S is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:10, December 3, 2017 (UTC)
Dead ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Low south of the Solomon Islands (98P.INVEST)Edit

Being monitored on BOM's eastern outlook. See the South Pacific forum for a couple more posts concerning this system. Highly doubt this will become much. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC)

It dissipated. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:24, December 6, 2017 (UTC)

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