Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season

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This is the forum page for the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2016): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

 

Future Start

Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC)

I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear.  If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC)

September

15E.NEWTON

AOI: Near Mexico

This AOI has been on the 5-day outlook for some time now and is still only on the 5-day outlook, but there is an AOI near Mexico that has a 0/60 chance of development. This seems like it will become Newton. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:36, August 30, 2016 (UTC)

This is one with a real chance at Newton. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for at least slow development, and I would say Newton should come by the weekend. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:06, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

At 20% (next 48 hours) and 70% (next 5 days). Here comes Newton. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:22, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

This is likely to become a depression or Newton over the weekend and into next week. Hopefully it stays offshore of Mexico and doesn't recurve to a landfall. Ryan1000 03:08, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

At 60/80 - Newton is arriving pretty soon! But the coast of Mexico will have to watch out... ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 02:52, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

90E.INVEST

Invested quite some time ago, but everyone's gone to focus on Hermine instead. At 80/90, but it's still having problems developing a circulation. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:40, September 4, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E

And yet another depression forms. Forecasts call for this to become Newton before hitting Baja. Jake52 (talk) 00:24, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Newton

And from a tropical depression in the first advisory to a tropical storm in the second. Newton, it must be said, is in pretty ideal conditions, and I hope that this doesn't turn too bad. It's currently not forecast to become a hurricane, although according to SHIPS, there's a 1 in 4 chance of this gaining 30kt during rapid intensification. Jake52 (talk) 03:11, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

It's got another day or so until it hits Cabo, it may intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane but I doubt it will pull something as bad as, say Odile. Still something to watch out for, since it's fairly quick formation may catch some people off guard. Ryan1000 04:10, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

As of the latest advisory, Newton is expected to peak at 70 mph, though that may change in the coming hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:20, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Newton's new advisory strengthens it to a Category 1, like some of the models show, but the worrying detail is in the SHIPS rapid intensification odds. According to those, there's a higher than 2/3 chance of Newton hitting Baja at borderline Cat 2/Cat 3. Jake52 (talk) 16:21, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Maybe a re-Odile isn't out of the question after all...though Newton is also picking up speed and is now moving 15 mph, so it's window of opportunity for strengthening is going down. Hopefully it doesn't peak at more than cat 1. If it does explode to a somewhat strong storm before hitting Cabo, then this could be the 4th consecutive year with an EPac name retired (well, it became a record with 2 consecutive years of it, but still). Ryan1000 18:09, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Newton sure seems to be strengthening quickly. At this rate it could be a hurricane by the next advisory. Baja California needs to prepare for this storm. This is looking a lot like Odile, and that's not good. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:18, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Newton is now 65 mph and should be a hurricane during the next couple advisories or so. This storm is giving me flashbacks to Odile. If it for some reason starts rapidly intensifying, this could be devastating for Baja. In the long run, this might bring some flooding to Arizona. This is NOT looking good. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 19:10, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Newton

And we ALREADY have hurricane Newton (75 mph/987 mb). Newton has officially rapidly intensified. Newton keeps looking better, and it could become a category 2 or even a major at this rate. This is becoming a dangerous storm, and people are hopefully leaving NOW. Unfortunately the EPAC is not being nice to Mexico lately... ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 22:13, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

It is 85 mph now, with a pressure of 984 mbars. Newton might be a C2 in the next few hours, maybe even by the next advisory. This is sure strengthening fast... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 00:16, September 6, 2016 (UTC)

Now up to 90 mph, maybe major hurricane status isn't out of the question after all...but it'll make landfall sometime later today, Newton better get on with it if it wants to become a strong cat 2 or 3. Ryan1000 04:06, September 6, 2016 (UTC)

Happy to report that Newton's growth stunted overnight, it's still at 90 mph/80 kts and it's making landfall near Cabo as I type this. Hopefully it won't be too bad. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:42, September 6, 2016 (UTC)

At least Newton's large size stopped it from RI'ing TOO much. However, it's large size means it will weaken less before hitting mainland Mexico. No damage is out of the question with Newton, but we can only hope not too many lives are lost... ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 12:41, September 6, 2016 (UTC)

Newton looks scary. The storm's cloud mass extends from the tip of Baja all the way into Arizona and New Mexico, according to the NHC's satellite pic. Newton looks like a large flooder. I hope it didn't cause too much destruction.~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:04, September 7, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton

Surprised to see no-one updated this, Newton is already dead and is currently over Arizona as a remnant low. NHC has handed responsibility over to the WPC. Unfortunately, Newton is responsible for the season's first fatalities, with 4 dead as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:03, September 8, 2016 (UTC)

Because advisories are still being issued on Newton (by the WPC), we'll keep him up on the storms header like we did with Hermine, since ex-Newton still poses a flood threat to the southwestern U.S. When the remnants fully dissipate, axe him. Ryan1000 00:23, September 8, 2016 (UTC)

And now they're gone. Ryan1000 20:33, September 8, 2016 (UTC)

92C.INVEST

92C.INVEST

I'm surprised no one posted this yet, but there's an AOI south of Hawaii that's at 30% for 2 days. It probably won't become much though; Madeline, and to a Lesster (lol) extent are more notable threats. Ryan1000 04:54, August 30, 2016 (UTC)

This actually looks quite good now, and I think it's a tropical depression. Maybe this system will become Ulika. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:49, August 30, 2016 (UTC)

Lol Ryan, nice pun. This has some potential to be Ulika, I would say. I hope we finally get a new named storm in the CPac! ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:07, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

Still at 30%, but it looks better than what Atl TD 8 did yesterday. Dvorak classifications are at 2.5, which supports tropical storm intensity. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:35, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

Back down to 20%. Not organizing and conditions are not looking too favorable. Ulika might have to wait. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:24, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: About 1000 Miles South-Southwest of the Southern Tip of Baja

At 10/20 but significant development seems unlikely due to upper level winds. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:27, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

This disturbance got sucked into what became Newton's circulation a while ago and is gone. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:29, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: 1300 Miles WSW of Baja California

This is an AOI that's been around for some time that's now in about the same place as the above AOI was, but more west. It has some opportunity to become a tropical cyclone, and has actually become organized enough for the NHC to up the odds to 30/40. This system has oddly been drifting east, but is expected to turn north and then towards the west soon. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:28, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

I see this AOI developing into Orlene during the next several days. After that, the below AOI could be Paine. The EPac keeps surprising us with above-normal activity despite the very late start. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 19:13, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

40/40 - conditions are now expected to become less favorable for development, so it now has limited time to become something. I will be mad if it stole the name "Orlene" and peaked at 40-45 mph. Best for this to remain a depression if it does develop. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:07, September 7, 2016 (UTC)

...aaand this AOI is gone. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 02:28, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

16E.ORLENE

Another AOI has been on the 5-day outlook for a while and is at 0/40. This could definitely become a named storm as well eventually. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:28, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

At 0/60 and looking much better to have hurricane potential than the above AOI. The other system at 40/40 is just going to enter unfavorable conditions later this week, so I'm crossing my fingers for this to be Orlene instead of Paine. We seriously don't need another epic name-stealer from the other AOI. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:10, September 7, 2016 (UTC)

Up to 30/80 now. This is going to develop over the next several days and should be Orlene by next week. Hoping it's a hurricane - thank god the other AOI failed to develop. :) ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 02:31, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

Wow, and it now up to 70/90. Orlene is coming!!! ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 02:28, September 10, 2016 (UTC)

100/100, why is it not a TD!? TG 23:57, September 10, 2016 (UTC)

Come on NHC - is this not a TD?! I hate it when NHC puts 100/100 instead of declaring the advisory immediately since that chance means it almost certainly WILL be a TD. >:( ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 00:45, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... NO THREAT TO LAND... Also this is the earliest sixteenth EPAC depression since 1992. I think we'll have 20 storms this year.

Tropical Storm Orlene

Well, we have Orlene now. Holy cow...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:56, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

Like I did with Madeline, I'm going to compare Orlene to the date we saw our 15th-named storm in the past four years:

• 2012: Olivia - October 6
• 2013: Octave - October 12
• 2014: Odile - September 10
• 2015: Olaf - October 15
• 2016: Orlene - September 11. TG 19:43, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

The Pacific is going fairly well-paced this year, on par with the last two seasons (though keep in mind last year the CPac had 5 storms at this point, and would go on to have 8 total). Orlene could become a cat 2 or 3 as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 20:41, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

The EPac continues to impress. I would have never expected the "O" storm this early with the very late start! :O  Orlene is now set at the intensity of 50 mph and 1003 mbar, and forecast to turn into a hurricane. I hope it peaks as a Category 2 at least. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 21:32, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

Peak intensity isn't expected to be above cat 1 for now... Ryan1000 01:32, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Orlene

And Orlene has become the tenth hurricane of the season, with winds of 70 knots and a minimum pressure of 990 mb, and looks on course to be the sixth major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:09, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Wouldn't surprise me if it does become a 3, maybe even a 4, this thing is intensifying fairly quickly. Ryan1000 09:57, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Now up to 110 mph and 967 mbars. Due to become a cat 3 at any time now. Ryan1000 22:31, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Down to 90 kts/971 mbar per ATCF :( Unless this pulls a Darby, our sixth EPAC major might have to wait. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:24, September 13, 2016 (UTC)

It's moving slowly so Orlene is probably weakening due to upwelling over it's own churned-up waters, once it speeds up again later this week it might get stronger. Ryan1000 02:57, September 13, 2016 (UTC)

The NHC just forecasts weakening throughout the rest of the forecast period; if right, our next EPac major has to wait :/ ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 03:21, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

For what it's worth, Orlene briefly weakened to a tropical storm last night, but with the new advisory it has regained hurricane status. 70 kts/985 mbar as of 8am PDT. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Orlene (3rd time)

First downgrade was missed. Orlene is going down against dry air, and should be gone within 24 hours unless it generates some convective bursts. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:01, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Yeah, it's pretty much nothing but a cloud swirl right now.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:55, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Orlene

There it is.--Isaac829E-Mail 05:24, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

I hope it gets upgraded to a major in post-analysis, it was only 5 knots away. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:19, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

17E.PAINE

AOI: South-Southwest of Acapulco

A brand new one has formed and is 10/60 on the TWO. This could be our next named storm over the long run. Hopefully it isn't Paineful to track (lol). ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 03:24, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

93E.INVEST

This was invested some time ago, and is now up to 60/90. Most models show this becoming a weak to moderate tropical storm, but notably the ECMWF shows this reaching extreme southern California. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:06, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

That would be unique to see in a lifetime, though forecasts over 4 days ahead are fairly unreliable; the Euro also eventually takes Karl to Bermuda as a 938 mbar category 4 storm down the road. Ryan1000 17:20, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

At 80/90 and will be a TD and then Paine very soon. If ECMVF panned out, we could see some rainfall in our area. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:53, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

93E is having some trouble pulling itself together, and deep convection is rather sparse and scattered. Models still show a weak tropical storm, except the ECMWF which has a minimal hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:23, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

At 90/90; it may be a TD by night (PDT time). ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 00:08, September 18, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paine

The 16th named storm of the EPac season has come, in only two and a half months. That's impressive. It isn't expected to become a hurricane as it heads northwest, but the remnants of Paine could make it to northern Baja or southern California. Ryan1000 09:46, September 18, 2016 (UTC)

Paine is now expected to briefly become a hurricane by Monday (per latest NHC advisory), though a landfall by Paine as a tropical system (I mean, not extratropical or post-tropical) is still unlikely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:09, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

It's almost a hurricane already. It might become one overnight before weakening. Paine might bring rain to my area in the long run - it's desperately needed due to the long-term drought we have been experiencing. I do not think it will make landfall while still tropical. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 03:38, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Paine

Confirmed by NHC. Hopefully the remnant rainfall from this storm doesn't become too Paine-ful (lol) for the folks in the southwest US. Ryan1000 11:02, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Hopefully Paine can intensify by another 5-10 knots before moving over SSTs of around 22°C (72°F) within 36 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:12, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Possible Paine clouds are actually now streaming into our area. By seeing the NHC's satellite pic, the clouds over Southern California are actually connected to Paine and might be a northern extension of its moisture. The current intensity is set at 90 mph and 979 mbars, and I have hope it can briefly become a C2. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 23:59, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paine (2nd time)

Didn't manage to reach C2 as strong shear caused the low- and mid-level circulations to decouple. Right now it's at 50 knots and 997 mb, and the tropical storm warning for Baja has been downgraded to a watch instead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:07, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine

"...PAINE GOES AWAY..." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:52, September 21, 2016 (UTC)

Well, although it's technically no longer a tropical cyclone, the remnants of this thing could still be fairly Paine-ful to the folks in the southwest US in a few days, like with ex-Linda last year and Norbert the year before. Ryan1000 03:30, September 21, 2016 (UTC)

Paine brought us some clouds and moisture but all the rain remained in the mountains and mainly east of us. It won't be that Paineful I believe. (Lol) ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:35, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

18E.NONAME

AOI: 500 Miles South-Southwest of Acapulco

Yet another new one has appeared on the TWO, and could be Roslyn. It is at 0/30. The EPac has been too active this year, especially with the record late start. It's insane, it might be like the basin is drunk or drinking too much energy drinks or caffeine. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 00:03, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

At 20/50. Roslyn should be here in a week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:11, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Now at 50/80. Here comes Roslyn! :) ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:38, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

Now 70/90. Here we go!! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:59, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

This has not become any better organized during the past several hours, but Roslyn should still come in the next couple days. This is really early for an "R" storm, considering the late formation of Agatha. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:46, September 24, 2016 (UTC)

80/90. Apparently an upper-level low to the northeast is suppressing it at the moment. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:11, September 24, 2016 (UTC)

90/90. Still a bit disorganized though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:12, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

94E.INVEST

Was invested a long time ago. Right now it looks like a TD, and should be declared one in an hour. If gale-force winds are found in the deep convection in the southern quadrant, then it'll be Roslyn immediately. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:59, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E

K. We have our eighteenth tropical depression of the 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Forecast to be a weak failure. *sigh* ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 22:00, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Meh, Roslyn-to be could have some moisture sheared from it into the southwest U.S. like Paine. Ryan1000 03:39, September 26, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Entering the Central Pacific

This one is near the CPac boundary and 20/30. Slight chance for getting Ulika here. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 04:38, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

No longer on the TWO. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:50, September 24, 2016 (UTC)

96E.INVEST

AOI: 1700 Miles East-Southeast of Big Island

This one is at 0/30 and the outlook says that conditions could favor development over the long run. Looks like our real candidate for Ulika unless it suddenly develops before entering the CPac (which is totally unlikely). ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 01:50, September 24, 2016 (UTC)

96E.INVEST

Well, it could, since it's forecast to turn northwards along the EPac-CPac boundary. Right now it's at 10/50, and has been invested. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:01, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

I still think Ulika is more likely to come from this than Seymour (assuming 18-E is named). It would have to quickly organize to be named before reaching the CPac. This really does have potential to be our second CPac storm, much less active than last year for sure. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 22:04, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

This probably won't do much, Hawaii is protected by their ridge and this will be a fish if it becomes anything at all. Ryan1000 03:42, September 26, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

We've had one in the Atlantic for a while now, but since the EPac has 10 storms (11 counting Pali), we can start this here too. Here's my calls:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions

EPac:

• Agatha - 0% - Second-latest start for the EPac proper, but still failed.
• Blas - 0% - A strong hurricane, but was a fishspinner regardless.
• Celia - 0% - Weaker than Blas, and also a fish.
• Darby - 5% - It wasn't a fail since it did make landfall on Hawaii as a tropical storm, which isn't very common and is unique for July, but if Iselle of 2014 didn't get retired, Darby probably won't be either.
• Estelle - 0% - Almost became a hurricane (and could be upgraded in post-analysis), but otherwise meh.
• Frank - 0% - Defied predictions and became a hurricane, but still didn't hit land.
• Georgette 0% - Became a major briefly, but died faster than it strengthened and didn't hit land.
• Howard - 0% - Moderate TS fishspinner.
• Ivette - 0% - Howard 2.0.
• Javier - 1% - Brought some minor impacts to southern Baja, but nothing severe.
• Kay - 0% - Remained well away from land.
• Lester - 0% - Still active, but missed Hawaii, so no.
• Madeline - 1% - Brushed by Hawaii and brought minor impacts.
• Newton - 12% - First hurricane to hit Cabo in 2 years, but it wasn't as powerful or damaging as Odile, and it's not as likely to be retired.
• Orlene - 0% - Could've gotten stronger, but was a fishspinner nonetheless.
• Paine - ?? - Still active, but may bring floods to northern Mexico or the southwest US.

CPac:

• Pali - 0% - An extremely rare January hurricane, but remained far away from any land.

There's my thoughts. Ryan1000 03:44, August 8, 2016 (UTC)

TG's Retirements

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z)

EPac:

• Agatha: Grade: E Retirement: 0% - Agatha was a fail, nonetheless.
• Blas: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0% - Blas was a nice looking hurricane, but it didn't affect land.
• Celia: Grade: B- Retirement: 0% - Celia, like most of the others, was a fish.
• Darby: Grade: A+ Retirement: 5% - Darby made landfall as a TS in Hawaii, bringing minimal impacts. Darby also refused to die.
• Estelle: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Estelle was another fail.
• Frank: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly but regardless, Frank was a fish.
• Georgette: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Georgette was a very strong hurricane, but she was a fish.
• Howard: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Howard only brought rain to Hawaii as a remnant low.
• Ivette: Grade: Z Retirement: 0% - Ivette was a fairly weak storm, and it was a failed storm.
• Javier: Grade: D- Retirement: 1% - Javier only brought rain showers to Baja California.
• Kay: Grade: D Retirement: 1% - Kay affected some small islands, that's it.
• Lester: Grade: A Retirement: 5% - Lester will probably be a fish, unless it hits Hawaii.
• Madeline: Grade: A++ Retirement: 5% - A pretty threatening storm overall, but impacts will probably be minimal.
• Newton: Grade: C+ Retirement: 15% - 8 fatalities isn't enough for Mexico to retire Newton.
• Orlene: Grade: E Retirement: 0% - Failed to become a major hurricane. TG 23:08, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

CPac:

• Pali: Grade: A+++++ Retirement: 0% - Very nice start to the season, however, it was a fish. TG 12:05, August 8, 2016 (UTC)

Ibahan1829's List of Retirement Candidates

East Pacific:

1. Tropical Storm Agatha: 0%: You tried again, Agatha, you failed again, Agatha.
2. Category 4 Blas: 0%: It sailed the ocean blue. That's it not even a landfall, nope. The only hurricanes I prefer are these ones like Blas.
3. Category 2 Celia: 0 again%: Good Celia, you kinda copied what you did six years ago and not hit land, not cause a fatality. As a bonus, you became an awesome annular hurricane at one point. Good Celia.
4. Category 3 Darby: 0.5%: You tried, Darby, you thought you could copy Iselle. Even Iselle was worse for the Big Island than Darby was. See you sometime in 2022, Darby.
5. Tropical Storm Estelle: 0%: So close to that, that 75 mph status.
6. Category 1 Frank, Category 4 Georgette, Tropical Storm Howard: all 0%: Frank equals weak hurricane that did nothing, reached it's 2010 counterpart in strength. Georgette equals surprising, C4 monster that also did nothing. Howard equals meh TS weaker than Estelle, and did nothing anywhere, like Pali, Agatha, Blas, Celia, Estelle, Frank and Georgette that came before this.
7. Tropical Storm Ivette: No%: Wimpy Tropical Storm that had much potential to become a category one, or even a good ole' two like Celia. But NO, it became a scaredy cat and be even weaker than even Estelle and Howard. Agatha had it's reasons not to do anything, but Ivette just decided to be lazy, to not even try. I'm moving on. Next!
8. Tropical Storm Javier: 0.0000000000001%: First storm this year to REALLY threaten land. It barely did anything to the land except for some rain. Javier will stay for 2022.
9. Tropical Storm Kay: 0%: Did nothing.
10. Category 4 Lester: 0%: Did nothing, except for some Hawaii rain, maybe.
11. Category 4 Madeline: 0.5%: It threatened Hawaii, it missed Hawaii.
12. Category ? Newton: This currently category 1 hurricane will hit Baja California soon...

Central Pacific:

1. Category 2 Pali: I don't even need a percentage to give to Pali. This storm is what you call an Enigma. CATEGORY 2 MERE MILES FROM THE EQUATOR IN JANUARY!? Crap, Pali! Pressure lower than 980 makes Pali the strongest January Central Pacific hurricane since the dawn of reliable records(yes, this includes EKEKA 92). And, best of all, it existed right along with ANOTHER huricane in the Atlantic. This is practically a once in a lifetime event here. We might never get to see an event like this again in our lifetimes...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:52, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions & storm grades:

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)

(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z)

East Pacific:

• One-E: Grade: F Retirement: A TD can be retired? :P - It failed to even become a tropical storm. The only reason it doesn't get a Z is because it caused impacts.
• Agatha: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Gets a large amount of credit for forming rapidly and unexpectedly, and for finally breaking the huge quiet streak. It did the best it can against the unfavorable conditions it faced, but was still a weak TS.
• Blas: Grade: A Retirement: 0% - An amazing Category 4 fishspinner.
• Celia: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Failed to become a major and barely peaked as a C2. However, it tried.
• Darby: Grade: A- Retirement: 5% - Gets credit for being a major, lasting a while, and becoming one of few storms to strike Hawaii. There is a tiny chance of retirement, but I doubt that will happen.
• Estelle: Grade: E Retirement: 0% - Estelle disappointed me by not becoming a hurricane. It isn't a complete fail, since it did almost reach hurricane status. But since it failed to become one despite predictions for it to do so, it gets a bad grade. It will be upgraded to at least a D if upgraded to a hurricane post-analysis.
• Frank: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Impressed me by becoming a last-minute hurricane. It did not become one despite predictions for it to do so until the last minute, causing its grade to suffer a little.
• Georgette: Grade: A Retirement: 0% - Amazing storm that RI'd at the last minute, but it barely scraped C4 status. The fact that it RI'd quite unexpectedly raises its grade a lot. I like the effort that Georgette put in during its life.
• Howard: Grade: E Retirement: 0% - Nothing special. It struggled with westerly shear and upwelling but despite those factors, it managed 60 mph, preventing it from being a complete fail.
• Ivette: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Wow, just wow. Despite continued forecasts for a potentially big hurricane (at least C2), it didn't even become one at all. It still reached 60 mph, preventing a "Z" classification. Did that shear monster attack you, Ivette the scaredy cat? Haha
• Javier: Grade: D Retirement: 1% - Caused some impacts in Mexico and Baja, but failed to become a hurricane. It reached 65 mph, which proves that it tried.
• Kay: Grade: E Retirement: 0% - Exceeded my expectation of being an epic name stealer. So it gets an E, instead of F or Z. No land effects means no retirement.
• Lester: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0% - An awesome storm that exceeded my expectations by a bunch. It lasted a long time, further upping the grade. It passed north of Hawaii and spared them a direct hit.
• Madeline: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0.01% - This REALLY exceeded my predictions! It was originally forecast to be a C1, but exploded to a C4! Nice stunt, girl. It spared Big Island from a direct hit, but it might have still caused plenty of minor impacts.
• Newton: Grade: C Retirement: 15% - A weak hurricane that almost became a Category 2 before punching Baja. It caused 8 fatalities and was the only storm of the season to cause fatalities AFAIK. This might have a slight shot of retirement, but that chance is still very low.
• Orlene: Grade: C+  Retirement: 0% - A strong 110 mph fishspinner, but too bad it didn't become a major. will be upgraded to a B if upgraded to a major post-analysis.
• Paine: Grade: C Retirement: 0.01% - Any damage in Baja or the southwest U.S. was minimal. This also brought clouds to where I live.

Central Pacific:

• Pali: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Damn, that was amazing. Extremely early storm and became a Category 2 as well, and it was very close to the equator. It could have gotten my highest grade possible if it became a major. No land effects, so no retirement.

Steve820 19:44, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

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KN2731's storm grades & retirements

Grading from A to F, retirements in multiples of 5.

Eastern Pacific

1. Agatha: grade E, retirement 0%. Span up quickly and helped to make things more favourable for Blas, but otherwise failed.
2. Blas: grade A, retirement 0%. Nice annular hurricane that didn't affect land. Thumbs up.
3. Celia: grade C, retirement 0%. Made it to C2, but was quite ragged the whole time.
4. Darby: grade B, retirement 5%. Steadfast major that lasted 2 full weeks to Hawaii. But if Iselle 2014 didn't go, you're not going either.
5. Estelle: grade F, retirement 0%. Nope, no post-analysis upgrade. Wasted both its chances.
6. Frank: grade C, retirement 0%. Nearly failed, but became a last-minute hurricane.
7. Georgette: grade A+, retirement 0%. Beautiful. Just the type of hurricane I like. Could have lasted longer though.
8. Howard: grade F, retirement 0%. Failed to become the 8th July storm, unless it was found to be one earlier in post-analysis.
9. Ivette: grade F, retirement 0%. You chose not to rapidly intensify? What a joke.
10. Javier: grade E, retirement 5%. First storm to pose a hurricane threat this year, but failed eventually.
11. Kay: grade D, retirement 0%. Did what it could against shear.
12. Lester: grade A, retirement 5%. Another beautiful annular hurricane that kept restrengthening against the odds. Brushed Hawaii, but overall impact was quite minor.
13. Madeline: grade A+, retirement 5%. Defied the normally unfavourable conditions near Hawaii to become a category 4. Hurricane warnings were up at a time, but turned away without bringing major impacts.
14. Newton: grade C, retirement 15%. 8 fatalities, but not worth retiring.
15. Orlene: C, retirement 0%. Will upgrade to B if we have a major in post-analysis.

Central Pacific

1. Pali: grade A++++++++++++++++, retirement 0%. No words to describe how amazing this storm is. Ultimately won't be retired though since Ekeka didn't go either.

~ KN2731 {talk} 10:25, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

Raindrop's Retirements

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820)

Eastern Pacific:

• Agatha - 0% - It was a surprise that the system that became Agatha actually got named, but Agatha was short lived and weak, only a smidge above being a 40 mph storm. Agatha had no impacts either, so Agatha will stay.
• Blas - 0% - Blas was a really nice major hurricane to track. It didn't last super long, more like average, but looked quite cool as an annular hurricane with it's large eye. Blas did not impact land either.
• Celia - 0% - Celia was an interesting hurricane as it ended up developing a very large eye, much bigger then Blas's was. It's cool that it became a category 2 hurricane in Blas's wake as well. However, again, it just formed and dissipated along a straight track which gets a little repetitive.
• Darby - 5% - Darby was an impressive and long lived storm that even managed to unexpectedly (but barely) become a major. Near the end of it's near 2-week lifespan it even managed to make landfall on Hawaii. Darby did cause some flooding, but it's unlikely to be retirement worthy.
• Estelle - 0% - Estelle struggled despite somewhat favorable conditions and even though the NHC at first was predicting a category 2, Estelle couldn't even become a hurricane. Estelle did not affect land either.
• Frank - 0% - Frank developed suddenly and advisories weren't even initiated by the NHC until it was already a TS, but then it struggled for a while, stalling in intensity as a 70 mph storm. However, just when it had weakened all the way to 50 mph and we all thought Frank was done, it made an amazing comeback and finally attained hurricane status, actually reaching an 85 mph intensity which is a step above a minimal hurricane, which was very impressive! Despite the earliest forecasts saying Frank could impact Baja California, Frank did not impact land in the end.
• Georgette 0% - Georgette was an impressive storm, becoming a beautiful category 4 storm unexpectedly after a short stall in intensity. However, Georgette was short lived and actually weakened faster then it strengthened, never impacting land.
• Howard - 0% - Howard spent most of it's short life as a sheared storm (a punishment for not getting named during July? :P), and was never able to strengthen much, then rapidly dissipated faster then forecast, which was lame. Howard had no land impacts.
• Ivette - 0% - Read Howard.
• Javier - 1% - Javier was a rather short lived tropical storm, however it posed a threat to land the entire time. At one point Javier looked somewhat well organized, and got somewhat close to becoming a hurricane, but when Javier neared land it got rapidly dissipated. Javier did cause minor flooding, but wasn't able to even make landfall.
• Kay: 0% - Kay was a moderate tropical storm that did not threaten land except for perhaps higher than normal surf, therefore it will not be retired. It tried somewhat and I think was a 60 mph storm at some point, unlike what the NHC said.
• Lester: 0% - Lester was a long tracked and strong hurricane that in the end never really affected any land! Lester posed a small threat to Hawaii, but missed, and as a result it ended up being a strong fishspinner that refused to weaken for a while. Lester was a fun storm to track.
• Madeline: 0.01%  - Madeline was a strong hurricane but wasn't too long lived. It posed a threat to Hawaii, but shear destroyed Madeline and it missed as well. It scared people a little bit, so it gets a non-zero retirement chance because Hawaii did that once, but I doubt Hawaii would retire Madeline for scaring people, considering Iselle was not retired.

Central Pacific

• Pali - 0% - Pali was an insanely amazing storm that did not impact land! All the time we waited for Pali was worth it. Pali was amazingly long lived, even if it WASN'T January, and Pali spent it's entire life close to the equator. It was insane how Pali was a category 2 hurricane almost at the equator. It was a shame that Pali got dissipated by the close encounter with the equator though, we could have seen Pali become a typhoon if it had survived. Even with that, Pali was a one-of-a-kind storm that was an epic start to the season.

Isaac's prediction

Doing it in 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%.

• Pali - 0% - Not close to any land mass.
• Agatha - 0% - " "
• Blas - 0% - " "
• Celia - 0% - " "
• Darby - 0% - Insignificant damage.
• Estelle - 0% - " "
• Frank - 0% - " "
• Georgette - 0% - " "
• Howard - 0% - " "
• Ivette - 0% - " "
• Javier - 0% - Insignificant damage.
• Kay - 0% - " "
• Lester - ?
• Mandeline - ?

--Isaac829E-Mail 00:10, August 30, 2016 (UTC)

Post-season changes

Well, TD One-E's TCR is out, so I'll add this here. Not much difference, if any. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

Estelle's is out, sadly no upgrade to hurricane status :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:56, September 16, 2016 (UTC)