Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

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This is the forum page for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, July-August, September, October, November-December Storm Event Archives:Earl, Hermine, Matthew

Other Basin Talkpages (2016): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

 

Future Start

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)  

Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)

Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page Wall Edits 01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

Farewell

Well, with Otto crossing into the Eastern Pacific basin, this likely is going to end the great 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, unless we get a surprise Paula in December which isn't very likely to happen. As of right now, we will finish with 16 tropical cyclones, 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. All of these numbers are the highest since 2012, and we also had 132 ACE points - more than the 2014 and 2015 Atlantic seasons combined. Farewell, 2016 AHS! The Atlantic did have some frustrating moments at times this year (July and Karl especially) but overall this season was great. Can't wait to see what 2017 has in store for the Atlantic! I think it is now time to open the 2017 AHS thread. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM PAULA FORM! 21:36, November 25, 2016 (UTC)

The 2016 season was fairly active in both number of named storms and ACE, but the surprising part about this year's Atlantic hurricane season was that more than half of the season's roughly 132 ACE totals occurred after September, which isn't very normal for most Atlantic hurricane seasons. The combined ACE of hurricanes Matthew, Nicole, and Otto was about 78.5 units, Matthew alone accounting for a total of about 48 ACE units. That's impressive. Matthew undoubtedly was the most notable storm of this season, being the strongest, costliest, and deadliest hurricane of 2016. Earl and Otto, and to a lesser extent Hermine and Nicole, also brought noteworthy impacts, though they were nothing as severe as what Matthew did to the Caribbean and U.S. Ryan1000 03:57, November 26, 2016 (UTC)

I would call this a very impressive season. It had its awesome moments, like when Matthew became the first C5 since 2007, the earliest 3rd and 4th named storms on record, Alex being extremely early, Nicole defing all expectations to reach C4 strength and lasting a while, and Otto being the southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America ever recorded as well as the first crossover to the EPac in 20 years. And of course, were the very sad moments, like Matthew and Earl's deaths and destruction, and to a lesser extent Hermine, Otto, and other storms' destruction. This season is a real proof on why we should not judge a season by its early months (preseason until let's say, my birthday) due to the excessive amount of ACE that occurred later (mostly by Matthew and Nicole). 2016 was the best Atlantic season since 2012 IMO. This season will be remembered for a while to come for its records broken and overall amazement it gave us. Earl, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole, and Otto's victims will remember this season for affecting their lives and giving them a scare, however. Barring the destruction caused, I really enjoyed this season. :) ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 23:45, November 30, 2016 (UTC)

It was a really good season, Have a lot of cool moments, Like having Alex in January, Matthew becoming a cat 5 hurricane the first in 9 years, and Nicole defying forecast of only being a weak/moderate storm and becoming a cat 4.We also got Otto that probably will be upgrade to a cat 3when it was hours before landfall before weakening to a cat 2  just shy of  landfall. We got frustrating storms Like Karl and Earl who didnt strength as much they were capable. Earl took off in the Gulf but it was too late for him but his death toll make him a pretty good one to be retired. Julia even though it form over Florida post analysis probably will find she develop over open ocean before making landfall in the state but we will see.  We got activity in Jan,May,June,August,Sep,Oct,Nov. If we had gotten activity in July It would have been more memorable because we could have got more name storms and the season would have had activity in the months it lasts. In my opinion Matthew, Earl and Otto may be request to be retired. Costa Rica was seriously affected by Otto and we need to remember that countries have different standards to have a name to be taken out of the list so we will see. Imo CR was the one that for Cesar to taken out of the list. Earl high death toll in Mexico makes him a prime example of having a good chance to be strike too and Matthew I dont even have to explain myself, as it was the costliest hurricane for Haiti and the second for Cuba and Bahamas, and we cant forget the damage done to the states. Compare to the seasons 2013-2015 it have been pretty good it was a breath of fresh air, even though July to September was boring, but much better than the lackluster of 2013. What a boring season that one was, but 2016 redeem itself for the others.  Allan the Honduran boy 04:38, December 2, 2016 (UTC)

One other thing I forgot to mention that Dr. Masters caught in his latest blog post on the end of the season was the span of the 2016 season from the formation of the first storm to the dissipation of the last (Alex on January 13 to Otto on November 25) is the longest span for any Atlantic hurricane season on record, eclipsing the previous record of January 3 to November 10 in 1938. That's impressive. Ryan1000 11:38, December 2, 2016 (UTC)

Actually, Dr. Masters is incorrect; the record goes to 1951, which lasted from January 4 to December 11. Still, 10 months and 13 days is still extremely impressive for an Atlantic season, and it's one hell of a runner-up. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:01, December 2, 2016 (UTC)

Ah, I wasn't updated on that, the first storm of that year was discovered in the hurricane reanalysis project recently. This year could still beat 1951 though, if we can get a post-season surprise to last after December 20, although it's not likely to happen. Ryan1000 12:18, December 2, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!

Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)

Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. Steve820 ^{Talk to me} 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)

Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)

Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions

(credit to Steve for the colors)

• Alex - 1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
• Bonnie - 2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
• Colin - 5% - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
• Danielle - 1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
• Earl - 50% - Originally I had Earl's retirement chance at 70%. However with Matthew standing out as the season's most destructive storm now, I have decided to lower it to 50%. Although it caused at least 65 total deaths and was Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. Mexico has snubbed storms from retirement before, such as Alex and Karl in 2010. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage, which is a usually little low for retirement. It's possible he won't return in 2022, but I wouldn't bet on it.
• Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.
• Gaston - 0% - Gastonic Gaston was awesome. Passed north of the Azores, but no damage or deaths were reported. See you in 2022!
• Hermine - 15% - Again, I decided to lower my chance here. Hermine did end the 11-year Florida hurricane drought and caused at least $500 million in damage and 5 deaths. The impacts of Hermine were quite minor for a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and even COLIN was deadlier. I think it's more than likely she will stay for 2022, especially with Matthew overshadowing her.
• Ian - 0% - Weak fishspinner, luckily it managed to reach 60 mph. Ian will return in 2022.
• Julia - 2% - No confirmed deaths, but its remnants produced a lot of heavy rain in North Carolina and Virginia. Retirement is extremely unlikely, though.
• Karl - 1% - Impacted Bermuda, but no reported deaths or damage. A frustrating fail that never reached hurricane status, despite some models predicting it would be a major hurricane!
• Lisa - 0% - Another weak fishspinner that did literally nothing interesting. See you in 2022, Lisa.
• Matthew - 99.999% - First category 5 since 2007, caused over 1,500 deaths, mostly in Haiti. Damage reports are estimated at over $8 billion. This name better not return, if it does, it would be just wrong. He won't be back in 2022.
• Nicole - 5% - 2 fatalities total from rip currents, but the damage in Bermuda wasn't all that bad. Nicole should be seen again in 2022, if we get that far into the naming list.
• Otto - 30% - A moderately destructive hurricane for central America. Retirement is possible but I wouldn't bet on it.

~BOB Page Wall Edits FORM OTTO FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

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Steve's retirement predictions and storm grades:

(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

Tropical depressions are included but only the storm grade for them are shown, since they cannot be retired.

Storm grades use factors such as intensity (weak or strong) and being unusual/record-breaking (or not). Destruction also factors in storm grades - Matthew would be "A+++++" if not for the extreme destruction he caused. The greater the destruction and deaths, the more effect on the grade it has.

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99.9%, 100%)

(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z)

• Alex: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0.01% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
• Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: 1% - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
• Colin: Grade: E Retirement: 5% - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to affect the grade slightly. However, it was really disorganized and looked extratropical :P. 6 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
• Danielle: Grade: E Retirement: 0.01% - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
• Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: 65% - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 67 deaths and at least $250 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a decent shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
• Fiona: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - A storm that fought the dry air well, but it was a weak fail nonetheless.
• Gaston: Grade: A Retirement: 0.01% - An impressive major hurricane that fought to stay alive. It also became a cool annular hurricane with a big eye. It didn't cause damage or kill people. But it did touch the Azores, preventing a complete 0%.
• Eight: Grade: Z - A laughable fail. It never became a TS despite repeated predictions for it to become one. XD
• Hermine: Grade: B- Retirement: 15% - This seems to have a very small chance, with at least 300.5 million in damage and 5 deaths. Destruction in Florida was not good - photos showed many forced from their homes as well as bad flooding, destroyed roads, people using canoes to get to places, and more. This most likely won't be retired as the U.S. has snubbed worse storms such as Isaac, and U.S. retirements usually have a damage toll exceeding $1 billion. For the grade, it gets points for breaking the Florida hurricane landfall drought, and being the first GOM hurricane since Ingrid.
• Ian: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Just a weak fishspinner, but a good 60 mph peak prevents a "Z" grade.
• Julia: Grade: E Retirement: 0.01% - Gets an upping of the grade for doing awesome stunts, such as forming over land (first to do so since 1988!) and the first storm on record to form directly over Florida. It also lasted a while as a TD after weakening late in its life. However, it was still a very weak 40 mph "name-stealer", so giving anything higher than E is laughable. Any damage was minimal and no deaths have occurred.
• Karl: Grade: F Retirement: 0.01% - Small impacts to Bermuda give this a non-zero retirement chance. I was tempted to give this a Z, but reaching 70 mph is too good for my lowest possible fail grade. It sucks how this did not even try or become a hurricane. It was SOO close! Karl was a MAJOR disappointment! >:(
• Lisa: Grade: F Retirement: 0% - The fact that it peaked at 50 mph instead of the even more pathetic 40 or 45 mph prevents a "Z" grade, a grade reserved for the worst fails ever. Still an epic fail though, but not the absolute biggest fail.
• Matthew: Grade: A+ Retirement: 99.9% - Retired (almost) for sure. Even if Haiti doesn't send a delegate for retirement, it will get retired based on U.S., Bahamas, and other Caribbean nations' devastation alone. There is still that very tiny chance that the destruction outside of Haiti is not enough, but otherwise, it will not be back in 2022.
• Nicole: Grade: A+++++ Retirement: 20% - THAT was awesome. Originally forecast to be a weak epic fail, it defied all forecasts and exploded to a C4. Wind shear weakened it to a point of almost dissipating, but it did not terminate there - Nicole reintensified to a hurricane before dissipation. It also lasted quite a while (2 weeks). Retirement is doubtful as it has only caused some damage in Bermuda, and Fabian was much worse. Nicole, you are one of my favorite 2016 storms! :)
• Otto: Grade: A Retirement: 35% - Very amazing storm in its own right, but the destruction in southern Central America could fuel a slight chance of retirement. Will be upgraded to "A++" if upgraded to a major post-analysis, but the destruction and deaths it caused is enough to prevent Otto from being my highest possible grade in the event of an upgrade to major status.

Steve820 ^{Talk to me} 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)

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Raindrop's Retirements

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts.

• Alex: 1%- A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
• Bonnie: 1%- Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
• Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: 2%- 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
• Danielle: 1%- Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
• Earl: 45% - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.
• Fiona: 0% - Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish.
• Gaston: 0% - Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, put on an impressive show while never threatening any land - actually Gaston threatened the Azores, but weakened rapidly and did nothing. Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! Gaston's lame attempt at affecting land doesn't even give it the slightest shot at retirement, considering Alex did practically nothing to the Azores. RIP Gaston, you were an amazing storm!
• Hermine: 25% - Hermine was the storm that finally brought the Florida hurricane drought to an end. Of course, that comes with a cost. Rainfall has been extensive with Hermine, and the storm surge has been bad, and it appears more impacts are yet to come. With the potential for future impacts, Hermine is not done yet despite no longer being tropical, and it stands a shot of retirement. However, the NHC snubbed Issac and other storms that hit the US and did damage, so the chance will remain low unless damage totals end up being a few billion dollars, which is hopefully not the case.
• Ian: 0% - Ian was a not-so-great fish storm that did manage to reach 60 mph before becoming extratropical. The most notable thing about Ian was that is was rocketing NE at over 50 mph when it became extratropical.
• Julia: 1% (Preliminary) - Julia formed OVER LAND, but despite that enigma didn't do much so far. This is still a preliminary estimate because Julia has consistently defied forecast predictions and may not be done with yet, and could still end up anywhere.
• Karl: TBD - We'll see what Karl does to land,if anything, eventually, but right now nothing significant has happened yet.

~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)

Puffle's retirement predictions

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)

• Alex: 1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
• Bonnie: 1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

• Alex: 1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
• Bonnie: 5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. TG 20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
• Colin: 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022. TG 12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
• Danielle: 5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.  TG 17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
• Earl: 95% - Deadliest and costliest in Central America in a decade. Better take him off of the list. Also, most people think this will get snubbed, mostly because of Alex and Karl. Karl caused more damage than fatalities, same case with Alex. Mexico mostly focuses on the number of fatalities, as from what I have seen from the past retirements of Mexico (Diana, Stan, Ingrid, etc.). TG 17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
• Fiona: 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. TG 22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
• Gaston: 1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm.
• Hermine: 25% - Hermine has a very slight chance of going, but is worth mentioning for being the first hurricane to strike Florida in 11 years. Hermine caused $800 million in damages and killed five in the United States. Hermine will most likely be returning in 2022, unless we get a surprise in April. TG 20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
• Ian: 5% - Ian caused some minor impacts in Iceland, which is very unusual for a storm.
• Julia: 1% - Julia does get acknowledgement for being the first storm since 1988 to form over land. Julia didn't do much on land, and it was a very weak storm.
• Karl: 1% - Karl caused some minimal damage in Cape Verde. Karl was feared to be like Fabian at one point, but it barely did anything there. Karl's coming back for 2022. TG 13:18, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
• Lisa: 1% - Lisa also caused minor damage in Cape Verde. That saying, Lisa will be back in 2022. TG 20:14, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
• Matthew: 100% - He's gone for good. Ninth costliest hurricane on record means he gets the boot. He knocked Hurricane Hugo off of the top ten and is costlier than Rita. Also to mention, 747-1,655 fatalities occurred from Matthew, making him the deadliest since Hurricane Stan. TG 10:42, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
• Nicole: 0% - Nicole was an amazing storm that defied the odds of the forecasts. Nicole spared Bermuda (luckily) and stayed out in open waters, for the most part. Nicole only killed 2 people. TG 00:02, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
• Otto: 60% - Otto was an impressive storm, crossing into the EPac, making it the first storm to cross in 20 years! Although, the damage left behind by Otto in Nicaragua and Costa Rica was severe, and the death toll is still rising. UPDATE: The TCR for Otto came out, showing Otto as a 100 kt Category 3 hurricane. TG 14:13, November 25, 2016 (UTC)

--Final Prediction--

• Retired (80-100%): Matthew, Earl
• Possibly Retired (50-79%): Otto
• Notable mentions (25-49%): Hermine
• Final retirements: Earl, Matthew, Otto.
• Replacements: Edgar, Malcolm, Owen. TG 2017 23:01, February 1, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.

Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)

• Alex: 1.1%- Early and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
• Bonnie-5%:My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
• Colin-10%: Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

• Danielle- 5%: Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death. 
• Earl: 50%: Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement.
• Fiona- 0%: LOL
• Gaston-0% Just an absolutely beautiful hurricane that fortunately stayed out to sea. Gaston redeemed himself after 2004 and 2010.
• Hermine-45%: Now, this was an interesting storm, the destruction it caused gives it a chance at retirement.
• Ian-0%: See Fiona
• Julia-1%: lolwut, what was Julia even doing?
• Karl-0%: Nope.
• Lisa-0%: See Fiona, Ian and Karl.
• Matthew: 100%: I never have given, and never thought I would give, a retirement prediction this high. However, Matthew sure has been an awful hurricane, especially for Haiti, but if Haiti doesn't retire it, even with the horrifying death toll (which is still lower than Gordon 1994, by the way), the U.S. will for sure. North Carolina got hit hard. I've seen pictures of the flooding in NC and some of the pictures and video look strikingly similar to the flooding seen in New Orleans after Katrina. This storm very likely caused damage of at least $10 billion, which alone would get it retired, but with the death toll as well, which continues to grow, Matthew will not be returning in 6 years.
• Nicole: TBA: Like Ryan and Owen, I am revoking my previous prediction due to the threat to Bermuda.

Leeboy100^Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)

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KN2731's storm grades & retirements

Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5. Colours denote high, moderate and low chances of retirement.

1. Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022.
2. Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low.
3. Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C.
4. Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality.
5. Earl: grade B, retirement 65%. Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 67 deaths overall, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total has gone up to at least US$250 million, with most of that from Belize and Mexico. This indeed has a decent chance of leaving the lists.
6. Fiona: E, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak.
7. Gaston: grade A, retirement 5%. Became a major twice, with the second time at unusually high latitude. Azores impact was minor.
8. Hermine: grade B, retirement 30%. It pulled itself together to become a hurricane at the last minute after a frustrating two weeks hoping it would actually become something, and broke Florida's 11-year hurricane-proof streak. However with a low death toll and not particularly severe damage for the U.S. for a hurricane, retirement doesn't seem that likely.
9. Ian: grade E, retirement 0%. Strengthened to 50 knots, but overall still a name-stealer.
10. Julia: grade D, retirement 5%. This formed over Florida and lasted for a surprisingly long time, but didn't cause much significant impact.
11. Karl: grade F, retirement 5%. Managed to last to Bermuda, where impact was minor, despite being in hostile conditions for its early life. But once the shear weakened it didn't try. At all.
12. Lisa: grade E, retirement 0%. At least it hit 45 knots. Another name-stealer.
13. Matthew: grade A+, retirement 100%. Matthew is the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2007, and has almost completely annihilated parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, as well as the US East Coast. Retirement's a certainty looking at the sheer number of deaths and the severity of damage caused.
14. Nicole: grade A+, retirement 15%. Unexpectedly became a C2, then weakened before restrengthening into a C4 which made Bermuda enter its third eye in as many years. Afterwards it became a hurricane again at 40°N before finally becoming extratropical on its fourteenth day. Good job, Nicole.
15. Otto: grade A+, retirement 55%. Intense late-season major that was very damaging in Panama and Costa Rica. Retirement is a distinct possibility.

Final Grades and Retirement Predictions:
High (70%-100%): Matthew
Moderate (40%-69%): Earl, Otto
Low (20%-39%): Hermine

Best Storms of 2016: Matthew, Nicole, Otto

By: ~ KN2731 {talk}. As of: 11:13, March 21, 2017 (UTC).

Ryan1000's retirement predictions

• Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
• Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
• Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
• Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
• Earl - 68% - The death toll is more than 90, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 250 million in damage (110 million in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive. With the NHC's TCR now out and stating 81 deaths in Mexico from the storm, Earl has surpassed Stan as the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Diana of 1990 (Manuel was worse in the EPac), and he has a fairly good chance to get retired.
• Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless.
• Gaston - 1% - Hit the Azores as a tropical storm just before dissipation. Caused some minor impacts there but it's not enough to get retired.
• Hermine - 24% - 5 deaths and 550 million, give or take 150 million, in damage isn't negligible, but for the the U.S, it's probably not enough. Keep in mind the U.S. did snub a few recent storms like Isaac '12 and Dolly '08, both of which were worse than Hermine.
• Ian - 0% - Like Fiona, it wasn't a completely pathetic fail having lasted a while, but still, no damage, no deaths, no retirement.
• Julia - 1% - Didn't expect this thing to form over Florida, but it wasn't too bad either way.
• Karl - 1% - Minor effects on Bermuda, but it wasn't anywhere close to Gonzalo, let alone Fay, 2 years ago.
• Lisa - 0% - Another fishspinning fail, but at least it managed to re-intensify into a TS once before dying.
• Matthew - 100% - If the 600-1600 deaths and nearly 2 billion dollars in damage to Haiti somehow won't get retirement, then 15+ billion dollars in damage and several deaths in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the U.S. will definitely axe him. Matthew was the costliest storm to hit the U.S. since Sandy, and he is going to be retired, no matter what.
• Nicole - 5% - Initially forecast to be a fail but came out of it by pulling off a stunning round of intensification to cat 4 as she neared Bermuda. Fortunately, the worst of Nicole missed the island and she only caused a mere 15 million in damage. Nicole will be back in 2022.
• Otto - 40% - Caused 23 deaths and at least 50 million USD in damage, 34 million of which was in Costa Rica. That may not seem particuarly extreme, but Costa Rica did in fact nominate (and retire) Alma of 2008 for slightly less than what Otto did, so I wouldn't rule Otto out of retirement, though I wouldn't particularly count on it either. We'll see.

There you have it. Ryan1000 23:50, November 28, 2016 (UTC)

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates

1. Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
2. Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
3. Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
4. Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
5. Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
6. Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.
7. Category 3 Gaston: 0%: You call that damage to the Azores? YOU HAVE FAILED! See you in 6 years.
8. Category 1 Hermine: 25%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005. It did cause considerable damage, but not even nearly as much overall as Matthew. If Isaac wasn't retired, this won't be either.
9. Tropical Storms Ian and Lisa: 0%: Ian = near hurricane that spinned the fish around. Lisa = epic failure.
10. Tropical Storms Julia and Karl: 3%: Did effect land in some way, shape, or form, but not enough to get retired.
11. CATEGORY 5 MATTHEW: 98%: 3(3:3(3:3(383:3(#/#/1?1!#:$6:+))-(=?9?`¶`{|[¥®¥®€™¢[¢¶`¶`{aaaaaaaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! C5! C5! First in nearly an entire decade! But, of course, it had to wreck, destroy, and exteminate every land it came across. The results seen were horrendous this time, words almost cannot describe the damage left in it's wake. 900+ deaths and $5+ billion in damage makes this the first billion dollar hurricane in just about 4 years. As spectacular as it was, damage was done, and flooding problems are still occuring in the Carolinas and Virginia as I am typing this. This will get retured. Good riddence, Matthew.     

Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:04, October 10, 2016 (UTC)             

Allan´s retirement Predictions 

1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022. 

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero. 

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement . 

6 Fiona 0% Meh not a weak ts not a strong one, a fail but not a complete one,Still Fiona is coming back in 2022. She was almost an exact copy of her predecesor in 2010, better luck next time lady. 

7 Gaston 0.1% Our first major of the season and the a big high ACE contributor, thanks for that Captain, aside of that effects in the Azores were minimal if any. He will be back, that is for sure.

8 Hermine 35% This will be preliminary until her report comes out with the monetary damage with all damage figures. I am actually generous with Hermine as the states have seen much worse storms than her. 500,000 dollars is not something to laugh about but nothing compare to other storms the States have dealt with. If she had another day like models were predicting these figures would have been much higher but thank God she didnt. Anyhow it was nice to finally have a hurricane with the name Hermine.

9 Ian 0% A fishpinner. Stronger than Fiona but nothing incredible. I actually want this name to fail, didnt fail as I want it but fail in intensity nonetheless. Lol Many were disappointed he didnt follow his predecesors footsteps but imo Ian is a weak name so I did enjoy that he was only a strong moderate ts. Anyways try harder in 2022 little thing, might have luck in that season XD.

10 Julia 0.3% I actually want the name Julia to be used for a strong name, sadly it was just given to a stealer and weak system. One of the most annoying and fighter storms I have track. she didnt want to fail and she was seeing a tunnel to the light were wind shear was low and once the shear start to decrease she died. TDFW. Really frustrating storm will see the damages of this storm once the NHC release her reports. probably minimal though. First tropical storm to form over land that I track though. My first storm to track that became a hurricane overland was Irene. 

11 Karl 0.7% Afffected Bermuda and Cape Verdes with rains and breeze but nothing more, it try and try but failed to become a hurricane. What a disappointment. I actually thought this would had been our 5th hurricane of the season, might be upgrade but who knows. See you in 2022 Karl and try harder please next time.

12 Lisa 0.01% Affected cape Verdes  like Karl with showers and low winds but she is a fishpinner and nothing more. like Karl she fight and fight shear and dry air but ultimately succumbing before doing anything worth.Expect her in 2022.  

13 Matthew 99.5% Matthew its almost certainly gone from the list. Haiti might not ask retirement because it does not have the money to send a representative to the WMO but Cuba and the Us does. Matthew was the second costliest storm in Cuba and Cuba is not relucant into asking named storms out of the list. Guantanamo was totalled by Matthew and if Cuba for a reason does snubbed this chance which I doubt the Usa will certainly do. Maybe not for the damage in Florida but for the extreme flooding that Matthew caused in NC which left a lot of people dead, Anyhow this is the last time we will probably see Matthew on the list. Au revoir Matthew. 

Nicole 20%. She will be here for 2022 even though she was an amazing storm to track. From developing in the worst conditions to becoming a cat 2 to almost dissipating and then becoming a cat 4. Was beautiful. Damage in Bermuda was almost nonexistant Fay caused more damage than her and she was not retire so I doubt she will be gone. 

Otto 55% damage was not terrible but CR president said that damage was unprecedent for the nation and many roads and buildings suffering a lot of damage. Panama also suffer from in a lesser extent with Nicaragua being the one sustaining the less damage with no Fatality, The death toll and the damage might push CR to ask for his name to be axe from the list,but we will see as stardards vary by countries.

I can almost surely say that the two possible names taken out of the list are Earl and Matthew, and a possible third being Otto.

Allanjeff 20:47, November 4, 2016 (UTC)

Isaac's prediction

0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%.

• Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores.
• Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage.
• Colin - 0% - Minimal damage.
• Danielle - 0% - Little damage.
• Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility.
• Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Gaston - 0% - " "
• Hermine - 25% - Very unlikely as not much damage occurred.
• Ian - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Julia - 0% - Impacts were already felt before warnings were issued.
• Karl - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Lisa - 0% - " "
• Matthew - 100% - For Haiti and Cuba alone.
• Nicole - ?

--Isaac829E-Mail 02:25, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

Owen's prediction

• Alex: 0% - Neat January hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were minor. 
• Bonnie: 0% - Minimal tropical storm and minimal land impact. 
• Colin: 0% - The real problem caused by Colin was flooding, but Debby of 2012 was worse and wasn't retired. 
• Danielle: 0% - Mexico has seen worse. 
• Earl: 50% - I'm giving Earl a 50/50 chance because there has been past hurricanes such as Karl which were ultimately snubbed by Mexico, but my gut feeling is it will go if it's the worst death toll since Stan.
• Fiona - 0% - Disappointing fish storm that didn't really do much. 
• Gaston - 0% - He was a pretty nice major hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were ultimately minimal at best. 
• Hermine - 25% - I don't forsee Hermine going, despite the fact she was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years. The damages were less than Fay of 2008, which wasn't retired. 
• Ian - 0% - I honestly wish the name went to a much stronger storm this year, but it ended up being a moderate tropical storm that was just a fish. 
• Julia - 0% - Again, it was neat seeing another uncommon thing like her forming overland, but impacts were minor at best in Florida. 
• Karl - 0% - I mean he kept trying his whole life to persist, but never managed to become a hurricane and didn't affect Bermuda much but he's gonna be back.
• Lisa: 0% - Fishspinner Lisa will be spinning the way to return in 2022. 
• Matthew: 90% - Just saw a new report that insured U.S. damages will likely fall around $6 billion. However, the totals are usually double that like Ryan had said. Looks like Matthew may make his way into the top 10 costliest Atlantic hurricanes list after including all the damages on his journey. If no other country requests (as Haiti likely can't request because of their representative issue), the U.S. and Cuba are still very likely to request retirement of the name. 
• Nicole: 40% - I don't want to place the odds too low or too high, so I think a 40% shot is fair enough. I'll mark it futher up if the damage totals come close to Fabian and are in fact more than Gonzalo. 

Owen 04:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

Jdcomix's prediction

• Alex - 1% - Surprising January HURRICANE that caused minimal damage in the Azores. See you in 2022.
• Bonnie - 2% - Caused minimal damage in South Carolina, but refused to die. See you in 2022 as well.
• Colin - 10% - Colin pls, you didn't even look tropical. Despite its atrocious appearence, it still killed 6 people, which warrants a retirement chance of 10%. Has a small chance of going, but will likely be back in 2022.
• Danielle - 5% - Bay of Campeche failicia that killed one person. Damage is still unknown, so I'm saying 5% chance.
• Earl - 90% - Surprisingly fierce storm that devastated southeastern Mexico. It's very likely that Earl won't return for 2022, but Mexico didn't retire Karl or Matthew in 2010, so it's possible it could stay.
• Fiona - 0% - LOL
• Gaston - 0% - Fishspinning major and the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in years. Also created memes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHDtEd87gwM
• Hermine - 35% - Broke the record-long Florida hurricane drought, but only caused 5 deaths. Likely to return.
• Ian - 5% - Hit ICELAND as an extratropical cyclone, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022.
• Julia - 5% - What an unusual track. Could have caused moderate damage in South Carolina, but retirement seems unlikely.
• Karl - 5% - This was the most frustrating storm in years for obvious reasons. Impacted Bermuda minorly 
• Lisa - 0% - See Fiona.
• Matthew - 100% - Retired. If you aren't knocked off of the list for 2022, the NHC is on crack.

Whiplash's prediction

• Alex: 0% - No major land effects.
• Bonnie: 0% - Negligible.
• Colin: 0% - See you in 2022.
• Danielle: 0% - See above.
• Earl: 45% Interesting corundum I suspect retirement could be either way but I'm leaning slightly towards not being retired reminds me of Dolly, Alex and Karl in recent years and I think he will be staying based on Mexico's past behavior.
• Fiona: 0% - Lol
• Gaston: 0% - Strong but harmless and forgettable in the middle of the Atlantic.
• Hermine: 10% - The U.S. has seen much worse and not retired the name.
• Ian: 0% - Pretty rare we get I fails but this certainly was one.
• Julia: 0% - Interesting formation location but otherwise not noteworthy.
• Karl: 0% - See you in 2022.
• Lisa: 0% - See above.
• Matthew: 100% - Goodbye Matthew don't even need to see what you are going to do to Florida you have already destroyed so much in the Caribbean.
• Nicole: ?? - I have decided to revise her as she could possibly whack Bermuda as a major. Depends what she does if she becomes another Fabian she could be going off the list. So I will reserve judgement on her for now and see how things develop.

--Whiplash (talk) 23:04, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Eric's retirement chances

• Alex - 0% - Awesome off-season hurricane, but didn't do much to land.
• Bonnie - 5% - Some damage, mostly to South Carolina, but certainly not enough for retirement.
• Colin - 3% - Although he caused six deaths, he barely caused any damage.
• Danielle - 1% - One death and minimal damage. She's staying for 2022.
• Earl - 65% - 67 deaths along with over 250 million in damage sounds pretty retirement worthy to me.
• Fiona - 0% - :/
• Gaston - 0% - Fun major hurricane to track, and fortunately resulted in no damage or fatalities.
• Hermine - 25% - 300 million in damage sure is nothing to joke about, but only five deaths makes retirement unlikely.
• Ian - 0% - Meh.
• Julia - 0% - Julia was on some dumb sh!t, but she isn't going anywhere. Nice try though.
• Karl - 0% - I was so upset that he didn't reach hurricane status. Really Karl?
• Lisa - 0% - Who?
• Matthew - 100% - Over 5 BILLION in damage and over 1,000 deaths give Matthew a certain chance of retirement.
• Nicole - 10% - Caused only some damage on Bermuda, and no fatalities. Nicole will be back in 2022.

Eric 01:30, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

A2.0's retirement forecast

Going to make this simple.

• Alex - 2% - Maybe it can get retired because of its early existence, but to be honest, it is highly unlikely.
• Bonnie to Danielle, Fiona to Gaston, Ian to Lisa - 0% - SORRY BUT NO. JUST NO. There were some impacts from these storms (especially the first three), but those are not enough for their names to be retired. They and the fishspinning squad (Ian to Lisa) shall be back in 2022.
• Earl - 50% - Mexico's deadliest since Stan, Belize's costliest since Iris, but this storm got overshadowed by that beast in October (a.k.a. Matthew)
• Hermine - 28% - Florida impacts are relatively minimal compared to previous storms; I don't think Hermine will go.
• Matthew - 99.99% - SHOULD BE RETIRED. Matthew is the deadliest storm to hit Haiti since Jeanne, and also the costliest to hit the U.S. since Sandy. It is also the deadliest to strike NC since Floyd. Those facts are already enough to guarantee the retirement of Matthew, however, there's this very small chance that this won't be retired because of Haiti's reluctance to retire names, though personally, I think the U.S. damage estimate and fatality totals sealed it.
• Nicole - 25% - (I really thought this was supposed to be another fishspinner, but as of this posting, this may be hitting Bermuda soon. Hopefully not as bad as Fabian or even Gonzalo '14.) And this storm hit Bermuda. Fortunately not as bad as Fabian, and if the cost of damages aren't that high, Nicole may pull off a Gonzalo 2.0.
• Otto - 35% - (If this becomes our first Atlantic-Pacific crossover storm in 20 years, that would be amazing. However, countries such as Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua should still take serious precautionary measures even if this storm fails to become a major. Otto's effects will become apparent in the next coming days; I'll wait and see. ) He made it. The first crossover hurricane since Cesar-Douglas '96. Other records were set and broken by Otto, however, in the process, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua suffered. A total of 17 deaths were attributed to Otto so far, but the damage cost is not that high (~$8 million), that's why the percentage is relatively lower.

By the way, this my first time to do this after many years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:27, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Bumblebee's Retirement Prediction

• Alex - 1% - Basically did nothing,
• Bonnie,Collin,Danielle - 0% -  I dont need to explain. 
• Earl - 30% -  One of the worst storms to hit the Yucatan in some time,There is a possibilty of not seeing Earl in 2022.
• Fiona - 0% -  Fish storm,see you again in 2022
• Gaston - 0% -  A cool storm but caused no deaths or damage. Gaston is not getting the chop
• Hermine - 15% - Did cause damage in Florida and some deaths but It wasnt too bad.
• Ian,Julia,Karl,Lisa - 0% - You guys can take the door to 2022.
• Matthew - 99% - He is most definitely gone, One of the worst for Cuba,Florida and North Carolina, the first cat 5 since 2007,killed 500+ people in Haiti. He is getting the chop for sure
• Nicole - 5% - Pulled off an Ophelia 2011,There is the small retirement chance because this was a cat 4

Bumblebee the transformer (talk) 04:24, October 24, 2016 (UTC)

Jake52's Retirement Predictions

Eh, what the hey. I'll come on board with some!

• Alex: 2%. Managed a death toll and gave the Azores an unexpected January surprise, but outside of those, it's a trivia note and little else.
• Bonnie: 1%. While it killed more people than Alex (in as far as 2 is greater than 1), it was less noteworthy than Alex, so it counterbalances.
• Colin: 2%. A larget death toll than Alex and Bonnie combined, but with less damage than either of them. Once again, it evens out.
• Danielle: 1%. One death, little else notable.
• Earl: 60%. The death toll gives cause for retirement and the damages aren't anything to scoff at, but the scattershot nature of retirements for similar storms keeps me from going higher than this. Lately, though, Mexico seems more willing to retire storms, so who knows?
• Fiona: 0%. She lasted a long time, so kudos for that. With nothing else, she's set for a return.
• Gaston: 0%. One thing I have to give Gaston is that he made up for that very, VERY poor 2010 showing. That's all he did, though.
• Hermine: 25%. This was going to be 40%, but Matthew nearly cuts Hermine's chances in half. The US had worse, and if this was the lone hurricane, she'd probably get pulled off the list, but alas.
• Ian: 0%. Total non-entity.
• Julia: 1%. The fact that she formed directly over Florida is the only reason she's getting a 1%.
• Karl: 0%. The minor damages aren't enough to justify much of a chance.
• Lisa: 0% Just like Ian, she got her time in the limelight, and left it without a word.
• Matthew: 100%. What could I even say? $10 billion in damages, over 600 (and likely over 1000) dead, and the first Category 5 in nearly a decade. The only discussion left is what name replaces his.
• Nicole: 10%. Deserves kudos for surviving in the face of a significantly more powerful storm's shear, then coming off of it with a run at Category 4 and a Bermuda strike. Bermuda's had much worse, and Gonzalo wasn't retired for having done worse.
• Otto: 40%. On one hand, he didn't do much when compared to other storms that have been retired. On the other hand, neither did Alma in the EPac, and Alma hit much the same way. Otto hit locations that rarely see storms, and he hit at a time when the season was winding down.

• My final retirement predictions: Earl, Matthew, and Otto are retired.

Jake52 (talk) 09:00, December 13, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes

I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB Page Wall Edits FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)

11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)

1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)

Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)

NHC finally released the TCR for Alex today, but there's no change to its peak intensity (still at 85 mph, 981 mbars); however it was downgraded to a 65 mph storm on it's landfall in the Azores island of Terceira in reanalysis, from 70 mph operationally. Ryan1000 20:49, September 13, 2016 (UTC)

Although Alex's peak intensity was not changed, something cool about the TCR was that it was found to have formed a full day earlier than originally thought. This means the 2016 Atlantic season officially started on January 12, not January 13. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM IAN FORM! 00:19, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Danielle is out. Little change, if any. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM IAN FORM! 23:11, September 21, 2016 (UTC)

Bonnie is out. No change with peak intensity, but it was found to have regenerated 15 hours earlier, and it was a tropical storm for a little longer than originally believed. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM OTTO FORM! 19:57, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

As the Atlantic remains dead with no signs of development in the near future, what do you guys think we will see with some of the TCRs this fall and winter? I would like to see Karl upgraded to a hurricane, but if the NHC didn't upgrade Estelle they are unlikely to upgrade Karl. I also think Earl and Hermine were a little stronger at landfall than 80 mph, and I also believe Gaston may have been 125 mph at peak. Matthew is unlikely to have been any stronger than 160 mph. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM OTTO FORM! 23:36, November 1, 2016 (UTC)

Hermine rapidly cleared an eye before landfall, and indeed could have been much stronger than 70 knots. For Matthew, recon measured 143 knots near its first peak intensity, so there's a chance we'll get an upgrade to 145 knots. But what I'm more interested in is Colin: it doesn't look fully tropical, and I'm curious to know what its TCR may reveal about its structure.~ KN2731 {talk} 08:32, November 4, 2016 (UTC)

Fiona is out, along with several other EPAC TCRs. Peak intensity is still the same at 50/1004, but it was found to have formed 9 hours earlier, making its formation date August 16 instead of August 17. ~ Bob PageWallEdits FORM PAULA FORM! 00:49, November 30, 2016 (UTC)

TD 8 is out, remains a tropical depression. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:40, December 7, 2016 (UTC)

Ian is out, they are some changes with him, He was a subtropical storm during late September 14 until convection redevelop near the center on September 15 and reached a peak intensity of 50knots.Allan the Honduran boy 00:31, January 5, 2017 (UTC)

Karl is now out. Ryan1000 21:11, January 10, 2017 (UTC)

Gaston is out. Was actually a hurricane a whole day before.Became a hurricane in 24th and not the 25. Allan Calderini 04:16, January 14, 2017 (UTC)

Colin is out.Allan Calderini 05:02, January 19, 2017 (UTC)

Earl is out 81 deaths in Mexico alone plus 13 in Dominican Republican when it was a TW.  The damage is tally at 250 million dollars even though not high the death toll for Mexico was quite high. I am almost surely Earl will be out of the list. Allan Calderini 00:46, January 25, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, I didn't expect the death toll to rise to more than 80 in Mexico, that's pretty bad. In fact, Stan killed 1 less person in Mexico than Earl, so Earl is now the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Diana of 1990 (although Manuel and a few others were deadlier in the EPac). Ryan1000 02:14, January 25, 2017 (UTC)

Julia is out, not much is new. Ryan1000 19:35, January 26, 2017 (UTC)

Hermine is out I really thought Lisa would be out first but oh well. Allan Calderini 22:30, January 30, 2017 (UTC)

NHC says the damage totals from Hermine were slightly lower than earlier estimated, around 550 million, +/- 150 million instead of 800 million. Lisa should be out next. Ryan1000 13:12, January 31, 2017 (UTC)

Otto is out, upgraded to a 100-knot Category 3 major hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:51, February 1, 2017 (UTC)

Looks like I lost in the betting pools. :( Nonetheless, I more or less expected the upgrade on Otto, and with Otto's upgrade to major hurricane status 2016 is now the only Atlantic hurricane season on record to feature 3 major hurricanes after September. Pretty impressive if I do say so myself. Ryan1000 00:57, February 2, 2017 (UTC)

Nicole is out, That leaves Lisa and Matthew. It would be something if Lisa is the last issue. Even though I doubt it.Allan Calderini 23:08, February 16, 2017 (UTC)

I'm surprised it's taking so long for Lisa to come out, seeing as how she wasn't much different from Ian or Fiona. But with regards to Nicole, the TCR buffed her peak intensity slightly to 140 mph (120 knots), but they also stated that since the storm had a short duration of strong winds, and the strongest winds of the storm missed the island, Nicole only led to only 15 million in damage (insured losses), which is only a fraction of what Gonzalo did. Ryan1000 23:35, February 16, 2017 (UTC)

And...Lisa is finally out. Well, her TCR actually came out 20 days ago, but the NHC just didn't bother to update their page until today...looks like Matthew, whenever the NHC is finished with him, is last. Ryan1000 03:45, February 23, 2017 (UTC)

Replacement names

Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:

• Edvin
• Edgar
• Elan
• Eli(e)
• Elvin
• Emmett
• Emile
• Elliot
• Elric
• Evan
• Ethan
• Elwin
• Elwood
• Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. TG 10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB Page Wall Edits FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). Steve820 02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. TG 10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names:

• Edwin
• Elmo
• Emilio
• Enrico
• Enzo
• Emanuel
• Emanuele
• Evaristo
• Evandro
• Edison
• Edmond
• Elton
• Emery
• Eustace

Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. TG 11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)

I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)

With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)

Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

While Earl is a likely retirement candidate, we also have Hermine and Matthew as possibilities, so here are some potential replacement names:

Female H Names

• Helga
• Heather
• Holly
• Haley
• Helena
• Harriet
• Heidi
• Henley

Male M Names

• Mark
• Marcus
• Macario
• Mariano
• Maurizio
• Michelangelo
• Mackenzie
• Martin
• Mickey
• Moriarty
• Mars
• Mercury
• Merrick
• Morris
• Malcolm
• Mervyn
• Merv
• Marcelino
• Marley
• Mercer
• Merlin
• Miles

How are these names? Andros 1337 (talk) 18:35, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

I highly doubt Hermine will be retired, it wasn't that bad for the U.S, but Matthew is shaping up to be a fairly likely, if not certain, retirement candidate as it nears Florida as a strong category 4 hurricane, on top of the major damage he caused in the Caribbean. My personal picks to replace Matthew would be Mark/Marcus, Miles, Martin, or Morris. Michelangelo sounds a bit too close to Michael (scheduled for 2018), and I doubt the NHC will suggest a hurricane name also shared with a planet, like Mars or Mercury. Other than that, most of those names for Matthew sound good. Ryan1000 19:45, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

I would add Mason, Montgomery, Milan, Milo, Maurice, Matteo as other possible replacement names. --Whiplash (talk) 23:09, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Oh and Micah/Mika too. --Whiplash (talk) 23:11, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Matteo is probably out, since it's Italian for Matthew. Same goes with Mateo (Spanish form of Matthew). Andros 1337 (talk) 01:11, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

I just want to mention that many of you are thinking that because of the damage it caused in Haiti it will be retired, I would like to say that may not be the case. As you may know many storms that affected only Haiti are not retired even if they caused a lot of damage and death. Dr Masters in an earlier post he comment that Haiti never send a representative to the NMO  so no request is made. That is why Gordon and Hanna were not retired even if they should have. He said that economic reasons might be why Haiti never sends a representative. I do agree that Matthew is going to be retired but because of its damage in Cuba, Bahamas and possible the USA but not because of Haiti requesting the name, so until Haiti starts sending representatives which I doubt it will be soon base on how its economy I might not put a high chance of retirement to a storms that only affects Haiti. Allanjeff 06:12, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

For Earl, I think Elvis or Edgar will do. For Hermine (though this is now unlikely), Helga, Horatia, Hester, Holly, Hestia or Hope are the possible replacements. For Matthew: Martin sounds okay for me, but it's very similar to Marty (which is in the eastern Pacific list). Maybe Marvin, Morgan, Melvin, Micah, Miles, Morris or Marcel/Marcelo will do. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:08, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

I am picking Holly or Helena, or maybe Harriet for Hermine (the retirement of this particular storm is unlikely however). For Matthew, which is a MUCH more likely retirement candidate, I am picking Mark, Marcus, Michelangelo, Morris, Malcolm, Melvin, or Miles. I highly doubt the NHC would name tropical cyclones after planets; the retired name in a different language (such as Matteo) is highly doubtful as well. Hermine is not really deserving of retirement whatsoever - what I really want is Matthew and Earl to be retired, as they deserve it, without a doubt. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 03:28, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

Maybe the NHC would consider naming tropical cyclones after plants. How does Hurricane Milkweed sound to everybody? Hurricane Mulberry? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:02, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

For the record Anonymous, the WMO has replaced Atlantic hurricane names with similar variants of that name already in use in the EPac, and vise versa, multiple times before. There's no reason they can't do it again, it just can't be the exact same name on both lists. They did it to David in 1979; it was replaced by Danny, which can be considered a variation of the name Daniel, which was used in the EPac the year before and both names are still in use today. They also did it to Floyd, which was replaced by Franklin while Frank was still in use in the EPac just one year before, and both of those names are also still in use today. Julian, the replacement of Joaquin, is the male version of the name Julia and it's somewhat similar to the spanish name Julio, on the EPac list. Lastly, they did it to Kenna by replacing it with Karina while Katrina was on the Atlantic lists (though Katrina got retired on it's next usage). Ryan1000 22:18, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

I agree with that, Ryan. Maybe Martin will be a good choice to replace Matthew. Anyway, I want to add the name Celia to the facts you stated. Celia, which was retired in the Atlantic in 1970, but is in the current eastern Pacific hurricane list; in fact, it was used this season and is likely to be used again in 2022. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:30, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Well, the EPac naming lists weren't changed to their modern versions until 1978, which was after Celia (and Hilda and Dora) got retired in the Atlantic, I was referring to variations of replacement names on both lists after 1979. I'm not sure if the NHC will suggest a hurricane name that was formerly retired in the other basin, since the EPac naming lists included Celia, Hilda, and Dora when they were first drawn up by the WMO, they didn't replace formerly retired names like the examples I mentioned. But we don't know for sure, what we do know is when the NHC submits their report for the WMO, the WMO usually picks the first of the 3 or 4 replacement names suggested. Ryan1000 04:18, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Well, Mark seems too similar to Marco (which will appear in 2020). Max is in next year's EPac list, so that's out. What's looking more likely are (mentioned above) Martin, Morris, Moses, Malcolm, or even Marshall or Miguel. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:48, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Mark can still be used. Look what happened with Joaquin of last year, it was replaced with Julian which is very similar to Julia which was used this year. TG 10:43, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Eric (my name!) could also replace Earl, as it is spelt differently from Erick in the E. Pac. And I think Miles should replace Matthew. Eric 11:59, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Hate to say it Eric, but because Eric and Erick have the same pronunciation (as far as I am aware), I doubt that the NHC will choose Eric to replace Earl. :/

I said a couple months ago that Elliott was my top pick as Earl's replacement, and I still stand by that; Mark, Myles, and Marshall are my top choices for replacing Matthew. (And for the record, though I doubt Hermine will be retired, my top replacement pick would be Heather.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:01, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Yeah, I doubt they will, too. :/ Edwin or Elliott seem like good replacement names to me. Eric 01:36, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Maybe I'd go for Marvin, Mort, Maurice/Morris, Mickey/Mick, Mac/Mack or Marcel (to replace Matthew), Edwin, Elliott or Elias/Eli (for Earl), and if Hermine would be retired (which is now highly unlikely), Harriet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:41, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

My pick for Earl would be Edgar, or Elliot. And Mark, Martin, or Mort to replace Matthew. Leeboy100 ^{Beware Matthew's fury.} 01:46, October 11, 2016 (UTC)

My picks for replacement names are Eli, Heather, and Milo. I doubt Hermine is going to be retired, but in the possibility she is, I agree with Dylan's pick of Heather. Owen 03:04, October 16, 2016 (UTC)

My picks for replacements are Edgar, Helga or Heidi, and Martin. TG 13:54, October 22, 2016 (UTC)

I pick Edgar or Evan for Earl, Helena for Hermine, and Mark, Malcolm, or Melvin for Matthew. I might decide on my final picks for Earl and Matthew soon. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 18:00, October 22, 2016 (UTC)

Thus far, it seems that Matthew will be retired and Earl could be as well, though Otto may also have an outside shot if the impacts in Costa Rica warrant retirement. If Otto manages to get retired, what do you think it's replacement will be? Here are a few suggestions:

• Owen
• Oliver
• Odin
• Oz(zy)
• Oswald

My personal pick of these names would be Oliver, but Owen, Ozzy (Osbourne), Oswald, and Odin are also good names. Ryan1000 12:01, November 29, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more possible names:

• Orlando
• Orson
• Orsino
• Odalis
• Odilon
• Ortwin

Andros 1337 (talk) 19:55, November 30, 2016 (UTC)

Not a lot of choices for male "O" names, unfortunately. I looked up some lists for names in Spanish, Italian, French, and German. Andros 1337 (talk) 19:55, November 30, 2016 (UTC)

Odalis is probably not being picked since Odalys replaced 2014's Odile in the EPac, and at the end of the day, Otto is probably less likely than not to be retired anyways. It's an outside wild card but I'm not betting on it. Ryan1000 23:09, November 30, 2016 (UTC)

I pick Orlando, Oliver, or Oswald for Otto's replacement. I have decided on my final picks for Matthew and Earl. They are Malcolm and Edgar. If I were to pick one final pick for an Otto replacement out of my list of 3 that I wrote earlier, I think Oswald has the best ring to it. ~ Steve Chat :DContribsEmail me 00:20, December 1, 2016 (UTC)

As we get closer to finding out potential retirees, I I'm ready to announce my personal picks for the potential retirement candidates. Should the names Earl, Matthew and Otto be retired (which chances are probable imo that they will be, my picks to replace them are Eli, Milo, and Owen. Under the slim probability Hermine is also removed, my selection would be Haley. If I'm going to have an opportunity finally being on the naming lists, it might be this time. Owen 18:56, January 14, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC is still working on the post-season analysis summary of the season that they're going to be sending to the WMO for the 39th regional association hurricane committee which will take place from April 23 to 26 in San Jose, Costa Rica this year, and when that's finished (likely sometime within the next month), we'll know what names they'll suggest to replace Matthew. It'll be posted on this page when it's done. It'll probably be sent once all the TCR's are finished. Ryan1000 03:12, January 19, 2017 (UTC)