Changes: Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season

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This is the forum page for the 2015 Pacific typhoon season.

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July

09W.CHAN-HOM

95W.INVEST

twin system of 90P. GFS says it will track north. then straight into the Phillipines and crosses into the NIO, where it possibly regenerates. totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 16:05, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom

This one is well out to sea, forecast to become a typhoon when it nears the Mariana Islands in 4-5 days. Ryan 1000 14:20, June 30, 2015 (UTC)

w00t! If this is a Category 5, we can see a third-in-a-row! (not counting storms that didn't make it to STS status or higher) --Puffle Let's party HARD! 16:26, June 30, 2015 (UTC)

chanhom going to absorb 94W. totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 15:41, July 1, 2015 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom

if you think that Chan-hom is a ball of convection. think again... GFS deepens it up to 880mb on the 06z run. totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 16:03, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

spoke too early. now a C1. but what happens if it does EI or RI? totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 01:06, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Almost a typhoon now, and the forecast peak is raised to cat 4, Chan-Hom could even be yet another cat 5 if it intensifies fast enough. Ryan 1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

well its now an pellet of convection now! totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 15:47, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Chan-hom's eye is currently passing like Dolphin did. GFS is predicting an category 5 landfall near Shanghai,China ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|^{get hyper!} 23:36, July 4, 2015 (UTC)

God forbid that ever happen, a super typhoon hitting Shanghai would be one of the top 3 worst-case scenarios for a typhoon in the West Pacific to ever do, alongside Hong Kong and Tokyo. I doubt that will happen, but the JTWC's track still shows a cat 3 heading in the direction of Shanghai sometime late next week, which would still be a pretty bad scenario. Ryan 1000 03:33, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

@Ryan. I meant an possible C5 landfall.

Chan-hom eyewall is randomly moving between the island of Rota. already reporting 15 inches of rain! in Guam. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|^{get hyper!} 04:20, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

A "super typhoon" as (unofficially) defined by the JTWC has winds of 150 mph or higher, which is a strong category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and a strong C4 landfall would have pretty much the same outcome as a 5. Again, I'd be very surprised if Chan-Hom can pull off a cat 5 landfall in Shanghai, but a cat 3 isn't out of the question, which would still be pretty bad. The GFS recently tracked southward on this, taking it south of Shanghai as a 960 mbar cat 3 strength storm, but the Euro takes it further north, near or right over the city as a 944 mbar cat 4. Either way, this definitely bears watching for China. Ryan 1000 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

10W.LINFA

as everyone is focused on chan-hom. another invest pops up. _{(like gremlins, you pour water on them and they duplicate)}totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 15:18, June 30, 2015 (UTC)

T.C.F.A. issued. TD by JMA and named Egay by PAGASA. totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 22:20, July 1, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Linfa

who knew? totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 15:29, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

Wha...well, I didn't expect this one to jump up so fast. Expected to become a typhoon as it passes northern, or just north of, Luzon in a few days. Won't be as strong as Chan-Hom though. Ryan 1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Currently stalling or moving very slowly over northern Luzon, it'll gradually creep it's way further north towards Taiwan over the next 3-4 days. Ryan 1000 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

11W.NANGKA

JMA Tropical Depression

Another one out there, this one is somewhat near to Chan-Hom. Ryan 1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nangka

dang. the WPac is officially on fire. totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 15:33, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

officially named. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|^{get hyper!} 20:31, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Well I'll be, this is gonna be a helluva ride for the Marianas over the next couple of days. Due to its proximity to Chan-Hom, the former weakened recently and it might have some trouble strengthening, as could this, but once they move away from each other, they'll have a chance at becoming typhoons. Ryan 1000 20:52, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Nangka tore roofs from homes and downed trees and power lines. Nearly half of the nation's capital city of the same name were left without power. This could have a shot at typhoon status and/or retirement. --Puffle Let's party HARD! 18:23, July 4, 2015 (UTC)

still Nangka has a chance of doing an RI phase if Chan-hom moves away enough ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|^{get hyper!} 23:39, July 4, 2015 (UTC)

It probably won't be as threatening in the long term as Chan-Hom, both the GFS and ECMWF recurve this out to sea before reaching Japan. It could become strong, but aside from some minor flooding in the Marianas and Marshalls, this won't be that severe. Ryan 1000 03:47, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Normally I'm one of the first to complain about starting this section so early in the season; however, we've already had five storms, at least one of which has a decent chance of retirement. So, without further ado...

JMA

Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at, but enough for retirement? Nah.
Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, but a fish is a fish is a fish.
Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing.
Maysak: 65% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
Haishen: Wait, what?

PAGASA

All names: 0% - So far, no storm has caused either 1 billion PHP in damage, or 300 fatalities. As much as I disagree with PAGASA's arbitrary retirement standards (Amang was a respectable storm for them, and even a minor storm like Betty deserves a bit better than 0%), there's nothing I can do to change them.

--Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 19:53, April 21, 2015 (UTC)

Eh...I'm bored. Been a while since I've been on, but until EPac and ATL start up in two weeks and a month, respectively, might as well post my calls thus far:

JMA names:

Mekkhala - 5% - Damage and deaths were very minimal, even by their standards.
Higos - 0% - Strongest February typhoon in 45 years, but it was still well away from land.
Bavi - 1% - Was just an afternoon rainshower for parts of micronesia; damage, if any, was less than minimal.
Maysak - 70% - It fortunately wasn't as bad as it could've been for the Philippines, but parts of Micronesia were slammed by this typhoon, and it was regarded as the worst ever in some areas. It has a pretty good shot of retirement based on what happened there alone. On top of all this, Maysak was also the strongest storm to exist in the West Pacific before April, and the 3rd earliest WPac category 5, after Ophelia in January 1958 and Mitang in March 2002.
Haishenot say anything here (end pun).
Noul - 5% - Preliminary estimate, but overall damage seems to have been minor in the islands, just like Maysak.
Dolphin - 10% - Damage on Guam was much less than I initially feared it would be, so it'll probably be coming back again in ~6 years.
Kujira - 6% - Caused some damage and deaths in Vietnam, but it won't be enough to kick it out.
Chan-Hom - ?? - Still active
Linfa - ?? - Still active.
Nangka - ?? - Still active.

PAGASA names:

Nothing meets their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP damage/300 deaths) thus far.

There you go. Ryan 1000 20:44, May 4, 2015 (UTC)

For the first time since I joined this wiki I will post retirement predictions for the WPAC

Here we go!

JMA

Mekkhala: 10%- 3 deaths and $7 million, but that won't warrant retirement
Higos: 0%- it was a strong storm, but didn't affect land
Bavi: 1%- didn't do much
Maysak: 60%-While the Phillipines avoided the worst of this unusually early cat 5 super typhoon, Micronesia was hit extremely hard. As Dylan said, This was a stronger Sudal (which was retired), except Sudal caused no deaths. 5 people were killed in this typhoon, so it has a good shot at retirement
Haishen: 0%- moving on to the next storm!
Noul: 10% The Phillipines avoided major devestation here! It was a cat 5 as it passed by the islands. Miraculously, damage has been minor so far! It did cause 2 deaths though :(
Dolphin: currently active

PAGASA

Nothing devestating enough to be retired so far. leeboy100 ^{My Talk!} 21:38, May 17, 2015 (UTC)

JMA

Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at. Seriously.
Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, buuuuut, no landfall. See y'all in 6 freaking years! :3
Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing..so no. see you in 2021!
Maysak: 45% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
Haisheno comment...meh
Noul: 86% - Although Noul sort of helped Taiwan get water after a severe drought, Noul, known as Typhoon Dodong within the country, entered the Philippine area of Responsibility on May 7 and The Philippines raised signal 4, the highest warning level. From Wikipedia: "After Noul made a direct hit on northeastern Luzon at Santa Ana, Cagayan, at least two indirect deaths were attributed to Noul after they were electrocuted while preparing their houses in advance of the typhoon." That does not sound good. Noul was a slightly weaker Megi; remember, Megi was retired because the Hong Kong Observatory analysed that Megi was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific Ocean since Tip in 1979 by attaining the 10-minute maximum sustained winds at 270 km/h (145 knots, 165 mph). However Megi claimed 69 lives; Noul killed 2.

Dolphin: 30.5% - Strong typhoon, along with minor flooding in Guam, but it did pretty much nuttin.
Kujira: 0% - wtf, a fish = a fish. End of the line. But it did make landfall. YES BUT IT WAS ONLY LIKE A TORENTAL DOWNPOUR. OK? SHADDUP.
Chan-hom: My iPod has new, black glass and it's way stronger than this. Would be surprised if it becomes a C5.

--Puffle Let's party HARD! 17:56, July 1, 2015 (UTC)

Any particular reason why you copied my rationales up to Haishen? :/ --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 20:19, July 1, 2015 (UTC)

I was very lazy, that is all. :P --Puffle Let's party HARD! 21:04, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

here are mine. will update with new storms.

※ 5% Mekkhala: even Mekkhala was weak. it caused some flooding.

※ 0% Higos: meh...

※ -1% Bavi: wait what?

※ 75% Maysak: Micronesia got hit reaallly badly. Sudal part 2

_{※ -100% Haishen: no comment. (end water puns)}

※ 50% Noul: Noul literally evaporated as it missed the phillipines as a C5.

※ 15% Dolphin: altough was a record early storm. some minor flooding in Guam

※ 25% Kujira: some flooding

※ ???% Chan-hom: active

※ 45% Linfa: active. but caused the ferry MV Nirvana to capsize.

totally destructive|^{get hyper!} 04:09, June 25, 2015 (UTC)

@@ Line 56: / Line 56: @@
 Chan-hom eyewall is randomly moving between the island of Rota. already reporting '''15 inches of rain!''' in Guam.
 <font face="Comic Sans MS"><span style="border:5px solid:#09F;background:White">[[User:HurricaneOdile|<span style="color:lime;">( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)</span>]]<span style="color:#White;">|</span><sup>[[Message Wall:HurricaneOdile|<span style="color:lime">get hyper!</span>]]</sup></span></font> 04:20, July 5, 2015 (UTC)
+:A "super typhoon" as (unofficially) defined by the JTWC has winds of 150 mph or higher, which is a strong category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and a strong C4 landfall would have pretty much the same outcome as a 5. Again, I'd be very surprised if Chan-Hom can pull off a cat 5 landfall in Shanghai, but a cat 3 isn't out of the question, which would still be pretty bad. The GFS recently tracked southward on this, taking it south of Shanghai as a 960 mbar cat 3 strength storm, but the Euro takes it further north, near or right over the city as a 944 mbar cat 4. Either way, this definitely bears watching for China. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC)
 ===10W.LINFA===
 as everyone is focused on chan-hom. another invest pops up. <sub>(like gremlins, you pour water on them and they duplicate) </sub><font face="Comic Sans MS"><span style="border:5px solid:#09F;background:White">[[User:HurricaneOdile|<span style="color:lime;">totally destructive</span>]]<span style="color:#White;">|</span><sup>[[Message Wall:HurricaneOdile|<span style="color:lime">get hyper!</span>]]</sup></span></font> 15:18, June 30, 2015 (UTC)
@@ Line 65: / Line 65: @@
 : Wha...well, I didn't expect this one to jump up so fast. Expected to become a typhoon as it passes northern, or just north of, Luzon in a few days. Won't be as strong as Chan-Hom though. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
+Currently stalling or moving very slowly over northern Luzon, it'll gradually creep it's way further north towards Taiwan over the next 3-4 days. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC)
 ===11W.NANGKA===
 ====JMA Tropical Depression====