Changes: Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

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Pacific Season Discussions 2014 · 2015 · 2016

Future Start

Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. --Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why?rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired

Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.) rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)

That hasn't been confirmed yet. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)

It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. --Steve820 ^{Let's talk. • See My Edits • ✉ (Email me)} 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.--Isaac829 E-Mail 01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan 1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

January

Aoi:GFS old/new storm #1

GFS and CMC have been insistent (both old and new versions of the GFS, it got upgraded today, the tested, old, and new (very high res and seems very ECMWF like)) on an EPAC TC forming around 20N from a cutoff low 36 hours from now. Unlike the Carribean phantom storms of last year, it's evolution is rapid and fairly brief. ECMWF also kinda shows it. With that said, they IMO are overdoing the convergence in the region. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 04:44, January 15, 2015 (UTC)

May

Aoi:New GFS storm #1

0z GFS shows something by day 16. Something to watch, and IMO isn't too far fetched. Once the Pacific High gets here, the ITCZ positioning may not even matter. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 16:56, April 18, 2015 (UTC)

The GFS has sort of dropped this totally. But the same general ITCZ breakdown could still happen IMO in the next 2-3 weeks, and there are still hints in the ensembles and CFS. Y E ^Pacific

^Hurricane 23:40, April 24, 2015 (UTC)

EPAC looks quiet for the time being. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 15:26, May 14, 2015 (UTC)

Season has officially begun, and the first TWO of the year has been released.--Isaac829 E-Mail 21:38, May 15, 2015 (UTC)

90.E INVEST

Aoi:8N130W

0/20. Don't think it'll do much though. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)

0/30. GFS merges it with the system below. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 13:16, May 21, 2015 (UTC)

90.E INVEST

40/70. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 22:14, May 22, 2015 (UTC)

50/50. Looking good. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

70/70, I think this or the below invest could become Andres. Ready to see Andres, everybody? This is going to be a wild and crazy season, I predict. But, both this and the below invest have only a limited opportunity for development, so if they do form, they could be a weak TS or even peak as a depression. It would be amazing though, if both this and the below invest became named! Such occurrence sounds a bit unlikely though, but I really do hope it happens, so we can see "Andres" and "Blanca" active at the same time and do a fantastic kickoff to the season! :D --Steve820 ^{Let's talk. • See My Edits • ✉ (Email me)} 22:00, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

30/30. It's all this system's fault if and 91E's fault if we stop at York.

91E.INVEST

Aoi:8N12W

0/30. Currently an X. GFS brings this to near hurricane intensity. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 13:16, May 21, 2015 (UTC)

50/80. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 22:14, May 22, 2015 (UTC)

60/80. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

91E.INVEST

50/50. On it's last legs. Thanks alot. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)

20/20. Best looking invest of all time seriously. Have no clue why it is a TD. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 17:05, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

10/10. Still out there lol. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 12:47, May 27, 2015 (UTC)

01E.ANDRES

Aoi:GFS/ECMWF storm

Both the GFS and Euro are bullish on a Cat 1 hurricane moving north towards Socorro Island in the 10-12 day time frame. Really high on this, given the near certain agreement, though the NOGAPS/JMA are not on board quite yet. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)

0/20. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

0/30. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)

0/50. Andres, anyone? I think it might come out of this system, let's hope so!--Steve820 ^{Let's talk. • See My Edits • ✉ (Email me)} 18:46, May 24, 2015 (UTC)

0/60. Latest GFS blows this into a 936mbar tropical cyclone. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 17:06, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

10/70. This looks like a prime contender to be the first storm of the EPac season. It'll probably head out to sea like most storms at this time of year, but it could become a strong hurricane while doing so. Ryan 1000 20:01, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

18z GFS brings this to Baja. Decent chance it gives rain to the SW. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 22:45, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

GFS brings it close to Baja a long ways out, but not actually making landfall there. If this actually makes landfall on Baja at the time GFS suggests, it would be the earliest storm on record to do so. I wouldn't rule out some possible surf or rainfall on parts of southern mexico, but the center of this will probably remain offshore. Ryan 1000 23:21, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST

Invested. 60/90. ECMWF keeps this out to see, while GFS brings it near Baja. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 12:46, May 27, 2015 (UTC)

Now it's at 80/90. Highly likely to become a depression tomorrow, and could easily become Andres after that. Ryan 1000 23:24, May 27, 2015 (UTC)

90/90. Almost classifiable. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E

And the 2015 Pacific hurricane season has officially begun! Forecast to become Andres later today, and could even become a hurricane after that. Ryan 1000 12:17, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Andres

Now at 35kt. First named storm of the season and forecast for a 80kt peak. Kiewii

Aoi:GFS/ECMWF Mexico hurricane #2

12z GFS doesn't, but 6z and 0z GFS blew this up into a landfalling Mexico hurricane. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

Gone from GFS. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)

ECMWF develops a storm near 92E in several days but I don't buy it. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 12:46, May 27, 2015 (UTC)

0/20. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:NOGAPS/GDL storm

NOGAPS and GFDL, not the best of models, both show a tropical cyclone SW of 92E. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

@@ Line 82: / Line 82: @@
 ::10/10. Still out there lol. [[User:YE|Y]][[User talk:YE|E]] [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|<font color="#66666"><sup>'''P'''acific</sup></font>]] [[Special:contributions/YE|<font color="#66666"><sup>'''H'''urricane</sup></font>]] 12:47, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
-===01E.NONAME===
+===01E.ANDRES===
 ====Aoi:GFS/ECMWF storm====
 Both the GFS and Euro are bullish on a Cat 1 hurricane moving north towards Socorro Island in the 10-12 day time frame. Really high on this, given the near certain agreement, though the NOGAPS/JMA are not on board quite yet. [[User:YE|Y]][[User talk:YE|E]] [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|<font color="#66666"><sup>'''P'''acific</sup></font>]] [[Special:contributions/YE|<font color="#66666"><sup>'''H'''urricane</sup></font>]] 21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)
@@ Line 98: / Line 98: @@
 ====Tropical Depression One-E====
 And the 2015 Pacific hurricane season has officially begun! Forecast to become Andres later today, and could even become a hurricane after that. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 12:17, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
+===Tropical Storm Andres===
+Now at 35kt. First named storm of the season and forecast for a 80kt peak. '''[[User:Kiewii|Kiewii]]'''
 ===Aoi:GFS/ECMWF Mexico hurricane #2===
 z GFS doesn't, but 6z and 0z GFS blew this up into a landfalling Mexico hurricane. [[User:YE|Y]][[User talk:YE|E]] [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|<font color="#66666"><sup>'''P'''acific</sup></font>]] [[Special:contributions/YE|<font color="#66666"><sup>'''H'''urricane</sup></font>]] 17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)