Changes: Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season

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This is the forum page for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Future Start

Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan 1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —Steven09876 ^{Talk • Contribs} 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC)

HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC)

Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, Steven09876✉ 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC)

Here are my Atlantic basin predictions:

8 tropical depressions, 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC)

It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve 820 ✉ 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC)

Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 E-Mail 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC)

They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. Y E ^Tropical ^Cyclone 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC)

I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC)

The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820✉ 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC)

15 more days! Steve820✉ 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC)

Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling.

Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC)

As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820✉ 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC)

4 days left... Steve820✉ 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC)

3 more days! Steve820✉ 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC)

2 days left!! :D Steve820✉ 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC)

less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC)

There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area

leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC)

And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan 1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820✉ 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 E-Mail 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

Re-analysis

Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. Ryan 1000 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC)

Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC)

Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. Ryan 1000 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC)

August

Starting this a tad bit early, but say hi to August in the Atlantic! I hope we see a slight explosion of activity this month and let's hope we won't see an August that would be similar to 2013. I predict 4 tropical storms to form this month, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Let's make it an epic month! Also my birthday is coming this month too and I can't wait! =D --Steve820✉ 19:39, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Anyone else have predictions for this month? :) --Steve820✉ 20:00, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

You couldn't wait another four hours? :P Anyway, I doubt that explosion you foresee is going to happen. Dry air is quite a bad problem. I predict 3 depressions, 2 storms, and 1 non-major hurricane forming. Our ACE should be around 10 units, give or take five. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 20:16, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

I call for 3 storms and 1 hurricane, maybe or maybe not a major. And Bertha counts, it technically formed in August, even though we were talking about her precursor in July. :P Ryan 1000 11:39, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

03L.BERTHA

AoI: Emerging from Africa

Based on Jeff Master's latest blog post, there are a train of four waves over Africa. This is the first wave, and it is just exiting Africa. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 24)

0/20. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 09:54, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

We could defintely see a little development from this AOI, but I would not expect even a tropical depression for at least another week or so. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 17:19, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

Dry air is still pretty prominent over much of the North Atlantic, if those conditions remain over the next week or two, this one will probably go into the EPac and develop there. Ryan 1000 19:56, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

This might be a named storm in the long run but I personally don't think that'll happen due to all the dry air scattered across the Atlantic. But it still has a chance IMO. --Steve820✉ 22:29, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

Not bad...0/40, expected to become better organized in the Central Atlantic later this week. Bertha maybe? Ryan 1000 05:52, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Shower activity is real disorganized in the AOI, but we could see some gradual development over the next few days as it moves westwards. I am calling for a tropical depression at most right now. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 12:15, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

I expect a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane from this.Allanjeffs 14:09, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

I also predict a hurricane. Hopefully future-Bertha becomes a hurricane! --Steve820✉ 16:55, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

30% now and 70% for the next five days, expect Bertha to form from this and might be a hurricane as it approach the leewards. The central Atlantic might finally get into gear as conditions are becoming more favorable.Allanjeffs 05:42, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

Ugh, I hate this format. Fixed the header again...anyways, the long-term model forecasts on this invest are pretty interesting, some show a strong hurricane nearing the lower Lesser Antilles, others take it northward towards the Virgin Islands and PR, then heading towards the eastern U.S. or Bermuda. The 1996 and 2008 Berthas were early July Cape Verde major hurricanes, this one looks like it'll be an early August one, though hopefully less powerful. Ryan 1000 10:09, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's still 30/70, the 5-day outlook takes it screaming towards the Windwards in the long run. It has a good chance to be a hurricane IMO and hopefully it won't be destructive in the long run... I have some bad feelings about this D: --Steve820✉ 18:07, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

I think the majority of the models have now agreed that Bertha to-be will end up near or right into the northern Lesser Antilles in a week or so. After that, if it continues to strengthen to a major or so, it'll likely get recurved out to sea. As of right now, the Virgin Islands and PR are the most likely areas to be affected by this storm. Ryan 1000 22:04, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

Shower activity has become better organized in Invest 93L, and it is poised to develop even more in the next few days. Chances of formation are now at 50% for the next two days and 70% for the next five. It'll be interesting to see what this storm does. I hope we see a non-impacting weak hurricane out of this. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:40, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Models are becoming aggresive with this I believe it will be a td by tomorrow morning. Models are showing from a strong ts to a upper cat 1. The leewards might get affect from this so this might not be a fish. Allanjeffs 03:05, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

70/80! Bertha is soon to be here. I'm gonna do what I always do, that is hyping up new storms. I think Bertha could easily become a MH similar to Bertha 96 or Bill. Models are suggesting Bertha getting caught with the westerlies at different time and places, which could be the difference between a disaster and high waves. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:10, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Here comes Bertha! I got a feeling that it might be something destructive in the long run, but let's hope it won't be. Like Andrew, I hope we see a non-impacting hurricane from this. --Steve820✉ 16:42, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

It's at 70% (48 hours and 5 days). Showers and t-storms are limited but it's still well organized, and I root for Bertha! --Steve820✉ 00:16, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

Eh, looks like 93L slipped a little, now it's lost some of its deep convection and is down to 50% for the next 2 and 5 days. Now it'll probably head further south than earlier anticipated, and go deeper into the Caribbean. It could still become Bertha, but conditions won't favor it for long. Ryan 1000 21:25, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

Actually, SST's are currently at 28C and most of the dry air is to the north of 93L, per Jeff Master's blog post; it also has a well-defined surface circulation. It's the excess wind shear of 20+ knots that's preventing its development. Even the shear should diminish tonight, and the moist environment around the invest could result in a TD as soon as tonight. Much of the models are torn on the speed of 93L. UKMO and Euro take the system over Puerto Rico by Saturday evening, while GFS steers it more northeastwards at a slower pace. Due to the dry air ahead of it, 93L is going to struggle a little to intensify. At most, I call for a re-Chantal (2013) or re-Emily (2011), given the fact GFDL and HWRF, which did great with predicting Arthur, fail to foresee a hurricane from the invest. Regardless, the northern Lesser Antilles could really use some rain right now; they have experienced an extremely dry June. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 21:43, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

In one of Dr. Master's latest blog posts, it was stated that the lesser antilles had their driest June on record since record keeping began sometime in the 1800's, so I can agree that it would be nice for them to get some rain out of this thing, but it probably won't be very strong when it does so. The models are pretty adamant about the track of the storm, taking it into the virgin islands and PR in a few days, then dissipating it north of the Bahamas (or recurving it out to sea by a trough). Ryan 1000 22:37, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

If it develops it'll probably only be weak TS. The Lesser Antilles might get some rain from this but it probably wouldn't be anything severe, and this rain will be very beneficial to them due to their extremely dry June. --Steve820✉ 01:27, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Invest 93L has changed very little in organization. With dry air slated to increase as it moves westwards, it is looking doubtful we are going to see a hurricane now. Chances remain at 50% for the next two and days, although quite frankly, I would be fine with the invest just dying - I am sick of fail TSs, especially after last year. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:09, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Ascat show that this system already have winds of tropical storm force. The NHC could upgrade it at 5am or 11am if it mantain the convection is developing.They would probably upgrade it to a td though and wait until recon goes. Allanjeffs 03:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Hunters are beginning to investigate Invest 93L, 550 miles east of the Windward Islands. SST's are very conductive, a well-organized surface circulation is present, and plenty of heavy thunderstorms are around the system. What's stopping this is the dry air to its north and west. Also, Allan, the recon flight has only found winds of near gale-force. Additionally, shear of 10 to 20 knots may slow 93L's development as it tracks westwards. Most models predict westward movement towards the Lesser Antilles, with arrival near Puerto Rico expected on Saturday morning. Unfortunately, if 93L does develop, it may not get extremely strong. GFS, UKMO, and the Euro models fail to forsee the system exceeding 35 knots, while HWRF, GFDL, LGEM, and DSHIPS predict a peak of ~35 to 45 knots. At most, I see something along the lines of a re-Emily (2011), as GFS also predicts a more northward motion towards the United States. Additionally, the NHC has reported shower activity in 93L has actually decreased overnight, but that could easily change in the next several hours. Nevertheless, chances of formation are now at 70% for both the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 19:26, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

I think we'll see Bertha out of this by later today or tonight, but I predict only a weak TS that would be along the lines of Chantal (2013) or Emily (2011). Hopefully it forms into something, even though it'll be weak! I've been waiting for Bertha for a while! --Steve820✉ 19:39, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

(←)The Air Force flight found winds of 40 to 45 mph (35 to 40 knots) in the northern and eastern quadrants of Invest 93L. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing east of the center, and at this rate, a tropical storm could be up in as soon as half a hour. Gale-force winds are to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles tonight and Saturday, prompting possible TS watches and warnings if development does occur. Chances of formation are now at 80% for both the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:29, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha

Whoop whoop.--Isaac829 E-Mail 03:01, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

I knew the NHC was going to classify 93L at 0300Z! Now Tropical Storm Bertha, winds are currently at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). TS warnings are up for Barbados, St. Lucia, and Dominica. TS watches are up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Bertha is expected to pass by Barbados tomorrow afternoon (local time) and the central Lesser Antilles tomorrow evening. Gale-force winds extend 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands could see one to three, possibly five, inches of rain through Saturday evening. Gale-force winds should reach the warning areas tomorrow afternoon. Stay safe, Caribbean! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 03:10, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

She is the ugliest ts ever but I knew she was coming. I was rooting for her. Anyways this is for all the ones that call her dead. She had ts winds since the time I talk about Ascat today the NHC confimr that and + that is close to the islands.Allanjeffs 03:16, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

The spiral band that prompted the NHC upgrade has only existed for 3, maybe 4 hours. Doesn't convection have to persist in order to warrant classification as a tropical cyclone? I think the NHC got a little overeager here. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 04:23, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

The requirement is 6, I believe they thought that piece of convection would survive for more hours as they are in Dmax in that part of the world.Allanjeffs 05:18, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Eh, not necessarily going to be a fail, this could cause some flooding in parts of the uper Lessers before heading north of the Bahamas, then east out to sea. At least it's not like, say Lorenzo of last year (I forgot he existed in the retirements section lol). Ryan 1000 11:37, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha is really sheared; all the convection is displaced to its east. With limited outflow, the storm's intensity has been maintained. Another Air Force flight will investigate the system this afternoon. TS warnings are now up for Martinique. Due to the shear conditions, Bertha should not intensify much further for now, but once it clears Hispaniola in a couple of days and shear subsides, it could get a little stronger. For now, the NHC fails to take the system's winds beyond 45 knots (50 mph) for the next five days. The Atlantic STR is careening Bertha WNW for now, but once it hits the Bahamas, a subtropical high and mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. will cause a more northward motion. Puerto Rico has issued a local statement for the island, anticipating rainfall of one to three, maybe up to six inches. The Virgin Islands and Leewards also are expecting some modest rainfall. Gale-force winds should arrive in the Leewards this afternoon; any preparations should be stressed to get done ASAP! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 13:26, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

So this means granny Bertha can't be a re Arthur? Come on, the aardvark is getting lonely! :( “i liek turtlez 14:05, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

At least not for the next few days, sorry Liz. :( Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 14:29, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Satellite images do show a well-defined exposed LLCC to the west of the main convection, but the Air Force data shows Bertha looks more like an open wave right now. Due to 56 knot winds being reported ENE of the center, however, the storm's winds have been raised to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h). For the next 48 hours, the Atlantic STR should continue to steer Bertha WNW into a break in the deep-layer trough over the Eastern U.S, causing a recurving movement thereafter. With 15 to 20 knots of shear and dry mid to upper-level air around Bertha, and the storm's lack of organization, it should fail to intensify for the next few days as it moves over the Antilles. From here, there are two plausible scenarios. A.) Bertha degenerates due to land interaction and regenerates north of Hispaniola a la Emily (2011), or B.) It moves into a region of less shear and dry air and reaches a forecast peak of 50 knots (60 mph), like the NHC expects. As a side note, all TS warnings have been cancelled for the Barbados region and a new TS watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic coast between Cabo Frances Viejo and Isla Saona. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 15:21, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

I hope it won't be so bad of a storm for the Windwards and the Lesser Antilles. They could feel some weak impacts from Bertha but probably not too severe. In fact it looks kinda like an open wave at this moment especially with the high pressure of 1007 mb. --Steve820✉ 20:47, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

She is becoming better organized as agaist all odds convection is developing near her center. Models now show her becoming a hurricane as it recurves. Allanjeffs 20:54, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha actually might be a good thing for the upper Lesser Antilles as parts of Puerto Rico and the VI are in severe drought, if not the worst drought they've ever been in, so the rainfall from Bertha will actually be quite welcoming as a drought buster. It won't be a hurricane when it hits them, but Bertha could become a cat one later on as it eventually recurves out to sea. Ryan 1000 22:18, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Bertha's pressure has been lowered to 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg) based on Air Force and Martinique surface observation data. Also, Allan, convection is developing to the east of the storm's center as well, despite a small region of westerly winds. Bertha is still being steered WNW over the Caribbean by the flow of the STR for another couple of days, followed by recurvature into the westerlies and then a northeasterly motion into the Northern Atlantic. Fifteen knots of southwesterly VWS, along with abundant dry air as shown on microwave imagery, are still affecting Bertha quite significantly. While intensification may be delayed for another couple of days, after it clears the Bahamas, more favorable conditions should prompt some strengthening, with the latest NHC forecast bringing Bertha to 60 knots (70 mph). I will also note that HWRF brings the storm to roughly 80 knots (90 mph) in the next few days, just shy of C2 intensity. A TS watch is now in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Much of the Leewards are experiencing gale-force winds, which should spread to Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Southern Puerto Rico could now experience up to 10 inches of rainfall, which may benefit the ongoing drought conditions. I certainly hope we see more good than bad from Bertha. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 23:20, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Winds and pressure are unchanged from the previous advisory but the updated NHC forecast now sees Bertha reaching minimal hurricane strength in 4 days. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 02:49, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha is rather disorganized right now, and earlier recon data indicate it is still producing the same winds. However, the pressure has been raised slightly to 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). The storm is still being steered WNW by the STR, and in roughly 24 to 36 hours, southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern U.S. will prompt a more N to NE motion. Shear is not any more favorable, and since Bertha is about to crash into Hispaniola, it could might as well degenerate. However, SHIPS, HWRF, and the NHC are rather insistent on the storm surviving the shear and Hispaniola, which would then take it into a more favorable environment. Bertha is expected to reach 65 knots (75 mph) well east of North Carolina per the NHC. Two hurricanes, anyone? Also, no changes with the watches and warnings. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 13:20, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha is now 45 mph/1010 mbar and moving into Dominican Republic. That's one of the highest pressures I seen from a 45 mph storm! I remember Chantal from 2013 was similar to Bertha though, and I hope we see more good than bad from this system! I also hope it survives the crossing of the islands (instead of degenerating to a tropical wave). --Steve820✉ 21:23, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

It seems like it did Steven, if anything it actually looks more organized now. Surprisingly enough, another AOI has actually developed in front of Bertha and is at 10% for the next two days (but by then Bertha will likely have eaten it up, and it'll move on after that to become a hurricane out to sea). Ryan 1000 10:50, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

For the record, if Bertha becomes a hurricane, it will be the first time since 1992 that the first two ATL named storms became hurricanes (the first three did so that year: Andrew, Bonnie and Charley). --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 13:38, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

I hope Bertha becomes a hurricane! And I'm glad it survived the crossing of Hispaniola, now it seems to have an even greater shot at hurricane status than before! And, like Dylan said above, it would be the first time since 1992 that the first two Atlantic storms became hurricanes, I hope we'll see that occurrence this year. --Steve820✉ 18:25, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Visible satellites show Bertha's cloud pattern is getting a little more organized, with banding features noted in the eastern quadrant. Although the LLCC is better defined, the NHC has chosen to leave the storm's winds at 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h), while raising its pressure to 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.89 inHg). Bertha should continue to slow down as it nears the western periphery of an anticyclone. From there, it should accelerate northeast under the influence of the mid-level westerlies. Since shear is relaxing and the environment is getting a little more moist, the storm should allow for some intensification, perhaps to 65 knots (75 mph) like the NHC expects. Luckily, Bertha will be extratropical by the time shear picks up again. The TS watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands has become a warning, and all other warnings have been discontinued. Gale-force winds and rainfall of one to three, maybe five inches, are to be expected in the areas, along with the eastern Dominican Republic. Dylan, I don't mean to start a debacle, but your claim that the 1992 AHS was the last season to have its first two named storms become hurricanes is incorrect if you count subtropical storms as named storms. For those who do count those as the same thing (like me), the last time an Atlantic season's first two named storms became hurricanes was 1983, with Alicia, Barry, and Chantal. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 19:37, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha has intensify in terms of pressure and I believe winds would be 50mph or 60mph in the next advisory. Pressure found by recon was 1005. She has the potential to become an upper cat 1 or low cat 2 as conditions now for her are the best she would find in her life.Allanjeffs 23:01, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Now 70 mph, forecast to be a hurricane soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes one later today. Ryan 1000 11:52, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

70 MPH 990 MB. Yay Bertha! Hopefully she becomes a hurricane 173.20.68.192 12:04, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

-Oops, wasn't logged in. leeboy100 (talk) 12:05, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha is a hurricane now base on hurricane flight winds. At 11am might be at 80mph.Allanjeffs 14:20, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Bertha

11am advisory pins the winds at 70 kts/80 mph just like Allan predicted, but with a high pressure of 998 mbar. Still, a hurricane is a hurricane. For the first time since 1992 (unless you count the April subtropical storm, in which case the first time since 1980), the first two named storms of the ATL season have become hurricanes. Go Bertha, go! --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 14:43, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha should continue to strength I don't believe this is her peak. The weakest hurricane I can remember is Danny of 2003 with a pressure of 1000mb.Allanjeffs 14:56, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

She's done it! YAY!!! OH and by the way Allen Hurricane Bob of 1985 had winds of 75 MPH but a pressure of only 1002 mb. Bob is such an overused name btw :P So nobody can agree on which the last time a season's first two names were hurricanes (counting or not counting 1992), I'm going with 1983 but let's just put it this way it's the first time in over 20 years we have had a season with the first two named storms being hurricanes leeboy100 (talk) 15:44, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

I forgot about 1983, thanks Leeboy! Yeah, the first three named storms became hurricanes that year. And Allan, Frances '86 peaked with 85 mph/75 kt winds, but a pressure of 1000 mbar just like Danny. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 16:22, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

This is impressive. I didn't expect Bertha to become a hurricane this soon! I predict a peak of around 85-90 mph before it starts weakening. And this also means this season is the first since 1983 have its first couple storms become hurricanes, a great turnaround from 2013, which produced only 2 hurricanes in the whole season! If we discount subtropical storms, it would be the first time since 1992 that happened, like you guys said above. --Steve820✉ 17:54, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

I don't expect it to explode far enough into a major, conditions will start to deteriorate in 36 hours or so. However, a 100 mph cat 2 isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it does so. The only other land area that could be noticeably affected by Bertha is Newfoundland, but by then it will be extratropical and moving rapidly, and hopefully no one drowns on the U.S. east coast due to her high waves, like her 2008 predecesor did...Ryan 1000 20:09, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Or, maybe not. Now it's down to 75 mph and looks like it's falling apart. Not likely to hang on to hurricane intensity much longer at this rate. Ryan 1000 22:28, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha is a despicable excuse for a hurricane. It looks more like a heavily sheared 45 kt TS. I should mention that Bertha currently has hurricane-force winds (65 kt) and a 4-digit pressure (1001 mbar), the first such combination since I believe Danny '03. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 04:55, August 5, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha (2nd time)

And now...dying down. Yeah I agree Dylan, this thing sucks for a hurricane. Ryan 1000 08:53, August 5, 2014 (UTC)

I must admit though, it was pretty badass for Bertha to reach hurricane strength for the pathetic satellite presentation it had. Conspiracy theory: Dorian, Erin, Jerry, and Lorenzo were all major hurricanes. Bertha's at 50 kts/1006 mbar right now, BTW. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 16:04, August 5, 2014 (UTC)

I agree, Dylan! Bertha looked really disorganized for a hurricane, in fact it only looked like a weak TS! Anyways, Bertha should become extratropical tomorrow and the NHC forecasts it to reach Europe by the weekend. It sure looks horrible on satellite imagery --Steve820✉ 23:53, August 5, 2014 (UTC)

I've been tracking hurricanes since late 2009 and I have to say I never (personally) saw a hurricane peak with a pressure as high as Bertha.

Remember, kids (I've always wanted to say that :D) Bertha peaked with a pressure of ~~898~~ 998 MB leeboy100 (talk) 00:36, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

898? That'd be one of the strongest hurricanes on record. You mean 998. Anyways, Bertha should be going extratropical soon enough. Ryan 1000 00:40, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

Oops, typo. SINCE WHEN DID BERTHA REACH 898?!?! LOL. Yeah I meant 998. leeboy100 (talk) 01:05, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bertha

"...BERTHA ACQUIRED EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..." Farewell, Bertha! I take back the trash talk I said earlier about Bertha; this might actually be my favorite Atlantic TC of the season so far, simply because it pulled off hurricane strength with the severe organizational issues it had. Not to mention the fact that it actually survived the Greater Antilles, unlike Emily, Chantal or Gabrielle. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 15:54, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah, this was an awesome storm especially since it became a hurricane while very disorganized. Bye, Bertha! I like how you tried! Hopefully the Lesser Antilles didn't feel so much impacts. --Steve820✉ 20:30, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

I missed Bertha's run as a hurricane, but I'm glad she was able to do it while harming no one. I must say, 2014 is a lot better than 2013. Dylan, I did sneak in a reference to 1983's first three storms becoming hurricanes at the end of my post, but that was a rather long one and I'm not sure you caught it. Hopefully Europe makes it out alright! :) Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 08:07, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

Ex-Bertha has slammed into the UK. Heavy rain and thunderstorms, along with gusts of 60 mph, were reported in the area. The remnants are now over the North Sea. Liz, did you make it out okay? Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 11:19, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

I'm sure Liz made it out ok. Well, we'll just wait and see what her response is, to see if she made it out safe or not. --Steve820✉ 18:17, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

I've been following this storm closely and I'm fairly certain Bertha did not actually hit the UK, at least not the original circulation. During the 8th and the 9th the circulation became really elongated and dissolved into a trough while another low pressure formed just to the east of it and that was the storm that went on to hit the British Isles. Supportstorm (talk) 02:27, August 13, 2014 (UTC) I ate Bertha. “i liek turtlez 01:15, August 22, 2014 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

AOI: Tropical Wave (Aug. 10)

A new tropical wave just emerged off Africa's western coast. Development, if any, should be slow to occur for the next several days due to its disorganized structure and relatively cool SST's. Chances of formation are now at 10% for the next two days and 20% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 07:14, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

Considering the unfavorable Atlantic, it likely won't develop until it reaches the Caribbean, or, if conditions are still unfavorable by then, it could become Karina in the EPac in two weeks time. Ryan 1000 11:51, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

10/30. We might get this Cristobal out of this in the MDR but do not expect him to strength until he enters the Caribbean, The Gfs actually develops this until the gulf of Mexico and then moves it into Mexico. If it survives the below average sst in the MDR and the dry air for the next 48-72 hours we might get our fourth depression. The waves coming after this ones are more potential threats to develop. Eric Blake mention in twitter that the MJO is moving into phase 2 which is the second most favorable for the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 13:03, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

This wave might become of a Cristobal during the next week or so. Environmental conditions could limit development at this time but I still think it'll develop in the MDR. --Steve820✉ 16:47, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

Surprised no one updated this until now, but when it came up to 10/30, it became invested. The current models indicate a possibility of it coming near the northern Lesser Antilles, like Bertha did just a week ago. Ryan 1000 19:46, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

It's now 10/40, I predict we might see Cristobal sometime this week. It seems to have good enough conditions in the long run, so we could very well see something out of this. If you guys think this will become a depression or Cristobal sometime in the future, say "I". --Steve820✉ 02:41, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

Shower activity has become a little more disorganized in Invest 94L. However, with the invest expected to move into a region of decreasing shear, I think we could see a TD or weak TS affect the Lesser Antilles in about a week or so. Nevertheless, chances of formation are down to near 0% for the next 48 hours and 30% for the next five days. P.S. "I". Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 11:19, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

Well, this wave appears to be down to 0/20. I'm starting to doubt this will develop in the next few days, but development still seems likely sometime in the long run, when it nears the Lesser Antilles. --Steve820✉ 18:16, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

Actually, 94L has a modest spin to it and is in favorable SST conditions. It's the wind shear of ~25 knots and dry air in its northern and western quadrants that's causing the struggle. Although shear is expected to decrease as the invest nears the Lessers, dry air will increase as it nears the region. JM (JeffMasters) notes 94L is in similar conditions Bertha experienced, so it could just pull a Chantal (2013). Also of note is GFS, UKMO, and the European model fail to foresee TS development, and no ensemble models predict hurricane intensity. Although a storm like I feel we are about to see would suck, considering we've seen two hurricanes already, I'm fine if 94L pulls an Emily (2011) and only reaches moderate TS strength. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 06:31, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

Well, guess what, it dropped off the TWO. Cristobal will have to wait. --Steve820✉ 03:46, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

AOI: Near Africa

A tropical wave could develop from this AOI over the eastern Atlantic. However, it has a lot of dry air to deal with, and I won't be surprised if it doesn't develop until the EPAC. Chances of development are currently at near 0% for the next 48 hours and 20% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 06:48, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

I'm not expecting much from this, probably won't develop till the EPac. Geez, when will Cristobal form? --Steve820✉ 18:57, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

Its here and I believe it might be orange code in 8pm TWO. Might develop into a td or Ts Cristobal before its done.--Allanjeffs 22:38, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

Looks like a red to me.--Isaac829 E-Mail 23:18, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

Up to 50% on the STWO.--Isaac829 E-Mail 02:00, August 16, 2014 (UTC)

If convection expand and persist we might get td 4 and possibly Cristobal out of this.Allanjeffs 03:16, August 16, 2014 (UTC)

Now 0/0. That was one really quick plunge... --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 18:06, August 16, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah, that was really quick! Cristobal will have to wait lol. --Steve820✉ 18:33, August 16, 2014 (UTC)

My cristo bal foresaw that this would be a fail (forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Ryan 1000 22:42, August 16, 2014 (UTC)

Now I'm not sure if this is the right system, but ex-95L may be back on the TWO. Nevertheless, development may be slow due to the AOI above it. Chances of formation are currently at 10% for the next two days and 20% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 00:19, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

Percentages remain the same from last time, I actually hope this one is Cristobal and the below AOI is Dolly, since I've always thought of Dolly as a destructive and significant storm name. --Steve820✉ 00:13, August 20, 2014 (UTC)

Went off the TWO. --Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 01:24, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

04L.CRISTOBAL

AOI: Central Atlantic

NHC is giving a low pressure area in the central Atlantic a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 30% in the next 5 days. Environmental conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week and it might be Cristobal, hopefully! --Steve820✉ 17:55, August 17, 2014 (UTC)

Steve, I think this "new AOI" is actually a continuation of ex-95L. Also, for trivia, whenever Cristobal comes, it will be the latest date for a season's third storm in at least 15 years - Cindy in 1999 came on August 22. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 10:16, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

Not really 95L is still stationary near the cape verdes haven't move much. The wave coming out might absorb it . Meanwhile this was the wave that clear the salt for 95L the one that was in front of it. If this ever develop the most it will be is a moderate ts.Allanjeffs 15:27, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

Steve and Allan are right here. This is Pouch 17L, while ex-95L is Pouch 18L. Granted, 18L is likely to merge with 17L later today or tonight. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 16:02, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah, this is a new tropical wave, not 95L. Anyways, I really doubt its going to develop now, down to 0/10. Conditions are actually becoming more unfavorable. Oh, and I never really see YE in Atlantic forums, go back to the EPac :P (just kidding) --Steve820✉ 18:22, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

(edit conflict) To add on to Andrew's comment: the last time the third storm of an AHS season formed after August 22 was in 1992, when Bonnie reached TS strength on September 18. Hopefully we'll have more than just Cristobal or Dolly by then, lol. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 18:29, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

Shower activity in the AOI is now disorganized, and any development should be slow to occur in the Atlantic. Chances of formation are now at near 0% for the next two days and 10% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 00:16, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

Slow development is still possible from the AOI. Chances of development have risen to 10% for the next 48 hours and 20% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 12:14, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

96L.INVEST

30% for the next 48 and 40% for the next 5 days. Models are making future Cristobal out of this. USA might finally get its major hurricane drought to end if models pan out.Allanjeffs 18:05, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

Invest'd. Very interesting setup. Models showing a Caribbean Cruiser (yes, that). Looks like it'll have some obstacles though, and models may be suffering from convective feedback, but I'd be inclined to not think such. The TCHP are the strongest I've ever seen in my 16 years on this planet. Stronger than they were in 2005. However, it does have some obstacles to face. Southerly wind shear from the Carla Cradle will be an issue if it moves more south than expected. If it moves more north than expected, land will tear it up. Also, dry air/SAL could be a smll problem, as well as its large size. Outflow for a possible EPAC hurricane could hurt. In all my years around TC's, I've only seen it happen once where there were two hurricanes at a time right offshore MX and in the CAB/GOM, and that storm (Ivan) was in the EGOM. If everything goes right, this will be big and bad. That's a big if though. Y E ^Pacific ^Hurricane 18:41, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

I'm not sure if this storm will do much through the Caribbean, as it looks like it will interact with southern parts of Hspaniola and Cuba as indicated by the models. However, the GFS does see this exploding in the GOM in about a week, then hitting near the ~~Texas/Louisiana~~ EDIT:Updated to Louisiana/Mississippi, border in 9 days as a large and strong 992 mbar hurricane. Of course, that's very far out, but it's not a good thing to see. Hopefully that doesn't happen and our 9-year U.S. major hurricane luck streak luck continues, but it looks like ATL is finally waking up. The Euro doesn't do much with this at all, moving it through the upper lessers. Either way, keep your eyes out. Ryan 1000 23:38, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah, stay tuned guys, this might have potential to be something destructive in the long run. It's up to 30/50 and since it's very far out I actually kinda doubt we'll see such a huge Gulf Coast threat, but anything could happen and we should keep our eyes out. The GFS run is starting to scare me a little bit. BTW, according to UTC time it's the start of my birthday :D --Steve820✉ 00:09, August 20, 2014 (UTC)

Happy Birthday, Steven! And nvm the edit from before, that was actually an old run from the GFS. New run actually does take it towards LA and/or TX as a 992 mbar storm, we haven't seen a landfalling hurricane there since Rita '05. Ryan 1000 00:20, August 20, 2014 (UTC)

Thanks Ryan! :) Anyways this system is up to 50/70 and becoming better organized and is heading towards the Lesser Antilles. I hope it won't be anything destructive. Oh and do you guys like my new sig? (sorry, got a bit bored of the old one, and it might look a bit uncomfortable at first but you'll get used to it)

--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 01:23, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Still hanging on at 50/70, I think it's going to be a depression tomorrow.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 17:12, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

It seems that there are actually two partially exposed circulations with this tropical wave, one near Guadalupe and another moving NW, just offshore of the islands. Unless one of them proves dominant, this won't become Cristobal. Recon is currently investigating 96L, but I doubt they'll find enough organization to convince NHC to classify this. It'll have to wait a day or two, most likely. Ryan 1000 19:51, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Invest 96L already has the winds of a tropical storm base on recon if upgrade tomorrow it will be Ts Cristobal. ATCF confirm this.

AL, 96, 2014082118, , BEST, 0, 164N, 577W, 35, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 75, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M. Allanjeffs 21:28, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

(←)96L is very disorganized and has limited shower activity. Interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will likely prevent TC formation today, but as the invest nears the Bahamas, conditions should become more favorable. I predict a TS to come around August 24. Recon is planning to investigate 96L tonight. The Leewards, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands are to expect a rainy day today. Chances of development, BTW, are now 60% for the next 48 hours and 80% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 10:32, August 22, 2014 (UTC)

We might see Cristobal out of this by Sunday while it's in the Bahamas. Attention Leewards, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, you guys might get pounded by plenty of rain! --Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 16:58, August 22, 2014 (UTC)

My mistake the plane might find Cristobal right now, but it should stay weak as it moves near Hispañola and then it might strength. Allanjeffs 17:40, August 22, 2014 (UTC)

Following the surface circulation it would appear to be near landfall on the Dominican Republic. I expect this storm to continue to veer farther west than what most models are forecasting, but probable won't get to Florida. Supportstorm (talk) 23:06, August 22, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four

It has become a depression, current strength is 35 mph/1005 mbars. Forecast to become a hurricane while leaving the Bahamas and it might be a possible threat to the US east coast.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 21:01, August 23, 2014 (UTC)

Gah you beat be by minutes. Anyways, I knew it would take a day or two to organize, luckily it's still forecast to turn east before hitting the east coast, becoming a hurricane on the way out to sea. Hopefully that happens. Ryan 1000 21:05, August 23, 2014 (UTC)

I was starting to think this would never become a depression. Then it became one. leeboy100 (talk) 23:09, August 23, 2014 (UTC)

Leeboy, 96L was fighting a lot of dry air, so it just needed some time. Much of the central and southeastern Bahamas are under TS warnings. Also, the depression's pressure has been lowered slightly to 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Rainfall of up to 12 inches is expected in the Bahamas and Hispaniola over the next couple of days, accompanied by gale-force winds. The current forecast peak of 70 knots (80 mph) - as the NHC predicts - should give us our third hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 08:00, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristobal

Now named by NHC. Still expected to turn away from a landfall, but surf and rip currents could still be a threat to parts of the southeast U.S. coast. Ryan 1000 13:05, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

Can ~~Cristobal~~ Chrysalis become a major? That would be quite peculiar. Then he can join Marie, his fellow Changeling. “i liek turtlez 14:48, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

I don't think he'll be a major. NHC only makes it peak at 80 mph (70 kts). :P Anyways it doesn't look like an east coast threat anymore and is instead looking more like a Bermuda threat. Hopefully it doesn't affect land!--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 22:00, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

I'd personally like to see Cristobal become a 3 or 4 (on its way out to sea!) since we went all of last season without the former, and haven't seen the latter since Ophelia nearly three years ago. Anyway, the new intermediate advisory keeps Cristobal's winds steady at 40 kts, but lowers its pressure to 998 mbar, which is what Bertha had as a 70 kt hurricane :) --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 23:56, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

The TS warnings for the SE Bahamas are done. The storm should continue passing through the Bahamas through Monday, and a trough over North Carolina should then sweep Cristobal out to sea. Although the current forecast only takes the storm to 70 knots (80 mph), I would also prefer if Cris joined Julio and the EPAC ladies in the 2014 WHem Major Hurricane Club. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:24, August 25, 2014 (UTC)

Now 50 kt/994 mbar. This could be a hurricane by tomorrow, methinks. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 12:16, August 25, 2014 (UTC)

Scratch that, there's 50 kt shear in the path of this thing and 70 kts not too far from the forecast track. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Cristobal is simply blown to bits without ever reaching hurricane strength. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 21:51, August 25, 2014 (UTC)

If you see him right now he is becoming better organized he even tucked his center back to the convection. I believe this will be our third hurricane.Allanjeffs 22:54, August 25, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah, Cristobal just made me eat my words. It's up to 60 kt/990 mbar now and will probably be a hurricane very soon. Say hello to the first Hurricane Cristobal since the name was announced as a replacement for Cesar! --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 00:03, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah, Allan was right for sure! I was also predicting a hurricane. I believe it might be a hurricane when I wake up tomorrow morning, but for some reason, the NHC doesn't make it a hurricane until Wednesday afternoon. Must be the strong 50 knt shear in its path that Dylan mentioned. --Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 00:08, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Cristobal

75 mph in update statement.--Isaac829 E-Mail 00:19, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

This makes Bertha look like a joke on satellite.--Isaac829 E-Mail 00:20, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

This one is strengthening pretty fast might become a cat 2 or even 3 when heading out to sea. The Atlantic has come to life. With three more storms possibly for the next couple of days. Allanjeffs 00:21, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

(edit conflict) Lolwut?!? That was unexpected. Congrats, Cristobal! Hopefully it becomes a C2.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 00:22, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

I want a major from this but a cat 2 would be ok. Allanjeffs 03:08, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

Bermuda might need to watch out in 3-4 days time, but hopefully Cristobal passes north of them as indicated by the current NHC forecast. Ryan 1000 05:08, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

I gotta say, this whole 2014 thing ain't half bad! We've already beaten last year for hurricanes, and Humberto didn't become one until September 11, over two weeks from now. That being said, Cristobal is unfortunately the deadliest storm of the season so far. 5 people have been killed; 1 in Providenciales, and 2 each in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 14:10, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

Cristobal becoming a hurricane also markes the first time since 1983 (discounting 1992 since I count Subtropical Storm 1) when the first 3 named storms of the year became hurricanes, when that year had Alicia, Barry, and Chantal. Although the number of named storms isn't the best we've seen, intensity-wise we're doing better than last year already. Ryan 1000 20:08, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

The Atlantic seems to be recovering from last year's fails. Cristobal's now 75 mph/984 mbars and might strengthen a bit more.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 20:53, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

I am sorry to hear the fatalities from Cristobal. Luckily, it shouldn't be harming land from here onwards. The latest recon flight noted the hurricane's taking on a more subtropical structure, but they measured a pressure of 983 mbar (hPa; 29.03 inHg) and winds of 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). As Cris acclerates NE into higher latitudes, it has a small window to get a tad stronger before cooler SST's take over, and the NHC forecasts peak winds of 75 knots (85 mph). The hurricane looks rather elongated right now, which probably signifies extratropical transition. A TS watch is in effect for Bermuda, and surf and slight rainfall may cause some issues there. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 11:36, August 27, 2014 (UTC)

97L.INVEST

There's something new in the middle of the Atlantic and it's a disorganized tropical wave. 0/20 at this moment and might gradually develop too. --Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 22:02, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

Steven, this was actually invest'd when it came up on NHC (see WUnderground for more), and it should follow in Cristobal's footsteps in the long run, heading towards the northern Lessers, near the Bahamas, then north and out to sea. Hopefully our luck keeps up with this too...Ryan 1000 00:27, August 25, 2014 (UTC)

0%/30% Might become Dolly but the models are also predicting a strong tropical wave of Africa to come in 5 days which might take the name and there is also a dying piece of a cold front that may make it to the gulf and take a name. We will see.Allanjeffs 13:35, August 25, 2014 (UTC)

I'm also predicting a possible Dolly from this, but another tropical wave starting to be mentioned on the 5-day outlook might very well beat it (see below).--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 00:11, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

0/20 at this moment.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 20:54, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave (August 25)

A tropical wave emerging off Africa is at 0/20. If the above becomes Dolly then this might be Edouard, or it might be the other way around.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 00:11, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

Now 0/40. Could develop into Dolly if the above doesn't be named first.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 20:55, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

I am expecting this to develop into Dolly and at least become a cat 2. Really expecting a major. Allanjeffs 05:27, August 27, 2014 (UTC)

If this is gonna be a major then let it be Edouard. Unlike Dolly, Edouard's been a major before (1996), but that was Edouard's only run as a hurricane out of five tries, while Dolly is two for three (only the 2002 incarnation didn't reach hurricane strength). That being said, if Dolly and/or Edouard become(s) (a) hurricane(s), it will be the first time that the first four or five storms of an Atlantic season reached hurricane strength since 1977, which pulled it off with Anita, Babe, Clara, Dorothy, and Evelyn. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 13:41, August 27, 2014 (UTC)

98L.INVEST

AOI:Northwestern Gulf of Mexico

On the TWO at 10/10, I'm not expecting it to develop because upper-level winds are not conductive.--Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} 20:56, August 26, 2014 (UTC)

Actually, shower activity increased a little, and I won't be surprised if it can organize a little more before landfall tomorrow. Chances of development are now at 20% for both the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 12:04, August 27, 2014 (UTC)

98L.INVEST

Invest'd, but I'm not sure if this thing has enough time to become Dolly or even TD Five. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 13:31, August 27, 2014 (UTC)

An aircraft is going to fly and see if this becomes a td if necessary. I am rooting for a ts. Allanjeffs 13:35, August 27, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Even though we only have 2 named storms so far, we're already in August and I think it's about time we start this section with my retirement predictions:

Arthur: 5% - Early-season east coast hurricane but it barely caused much impacts. Because of this the name is likely to stay.
Bertha: 1% - Very impressive in that it strengthened to a hurricane even though it was so disorganized, but I doubt many impacts occurred in Lesser Antilles and retirement is very unlikely.
Cristobal: ? - Still active

(Last updated by --Steve820 |^{Chat With Me • My Edits • ✉} at 22:03, August 24, 2014 (UTC))

Still seems a bit early in ATL for retirements...if we get something a little more notable, then I'll begin mine, but there's not much to say right now. Ryan 1000 02:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Normally I'm against doing these with a season that's only two storms in, but I'm bored right now and this year's AHS has been moving at a snail's pace, so I'll post my predictions to pass the time :P

Arthur: 9% - Made for a boisterous start to the season, but fortunately wasn't too severe.
Bertha: 6% - Wasn't bad enough, though meteorologically interesting.

--Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 18:18, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

Oki doki Loki!

Arthur = 10% That aardvark was too nice. Next!
Bertha = 10% Only Alex Salmond would think that storm demolished everywhere.
Cristobal = u wot m8%

“i liek turtlez 14:49, August 24, 2014 (UTC)

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 : Now 0/40. Could develop into Dolly if the above doesn't be named first.--<font face="Tahoma"><span style="border:1px solid #09F;background:#000">[[User:Steve820 |<span style="color:#09F;">Steve820</span>]] <span style="color:#09F;">|</span><sup>[[User talk:Steve820|<span style="color:#090">Chat With Me</span>]]<span style="color:#09F;"> • </span>[[Special:Contributions/Steve820|<span style="color:#900">My Edits</span>]]<span style="color:#09F;"> • </span>[[Special:EmailUser/Steve820|<span style="color:#940">✉</span>]]</sup></span></font> 20:55, August 26, 2014 (UTC)
 :  I am expecting this to develop into Dolly and at least become a cat 2. Really expecting a major. Allanjeffs 05:27, August 27, 2014 (UTC)
+::If this is gonna be a major then let it be Edouard. Unlike Dolly, Edouard's been a major before (1996), but that was Edouard's only run as a hurricane out of five tries, while Dolly is two for three (only the 2002 incarnation didn't reach hurricane strength). That being said, if Dolly and/or Edouard become(s) (a) hurricane(s), it will be the first time that the first four or five storms of an Atlantic season reached hurricane strength since 1977, which pulled it off with Anita, Babe, Clara, Dorothy, and Evelyn. --'''[[User:HurricaneMaker99|Dylan]]''' ([[Message Wall:HurricaneMaker99|Hurricane]][[Special:Contributions/HurricaneMaker99|Maker]][[wikipedia:User:Dylan620|99]]) 13:41, August 27, 2014 (UTC)
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