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Monthly Archives: January-June July August September October
Storm Event Archives: Haiyan
Other Basin Talkpages (2013): N. Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Hemisphere (2012-13), (2013-14) WAD

Future startEdit

Yep.--Isaac829E-Mail 02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)

JTWC Best Track for last year is out.Isaac829E-Mail 20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

NovemberEdit

Has begun, but aside from Krosa, WPac is quiet right now. However, there could be a few storms following up behind Krosa if the GFS forecast turns out to be correct. Ryan1000 00:24, November 1, 2013 (UTC)

The WPAC is going nuts. I will not be surprised if all those storms become typhoons. For November, I think the WPAC will produce 5 tropical storms, 5 severe tropical storms, 4 typhoons, 1 super typhoon, and an ACE of 51. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:20, November 1, 2013 (UTC)
My predictions: 3 tropical storms, 2 severe tropical storms, 2 typhoons, and 0 super typhoons. The WPac should quiet down a little from here on out. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 01:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

30W.NONAMEEdit

98W.INVESTEdit

Behind Krosa, we have a new invest. It has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 30W (Wilma)Edit

And now this is 30W. This will probably become Tropical Storm Haiyan as it moves into the Philipines over the next day or two, causing some flooding rains. Hopefully it doesn't become the catastrophe Washi was in December 2011. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

I'm not sure which one will become Haiyan first, 30W or 31W? The winner will get the name "Haiyan", while the loser gets the name "Podul". Anyway, I think this storm could bring lots of flooding to the Phillippines. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 19:41, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
This will do more effects in Vietnam than the Phillippines imo.Allanjeffs 21:02, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
Well, the Philippines should still accordingly plan for this system. As for this depression itself, the JMA has its intensity at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and the JTWC has its intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). The JTWC predicts a break in our typhoon streak, taking the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 75 knots (85 mph). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:03, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
This isn't on the JMA for some reason. Anyway, PAGASA has named 30W Wilma. The latest JTWC update weakens 30W (Wilma) to 25 kts (1-min) and has it just inland Mindanao. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:08, November 4, 2013 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 30W will likely remain weak and break our typhoon streak. Both the JMA and the JTWC have the depression at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained winds), with a pressure estimate of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) per the JMA. Gusts are estimated to be at 40 knots (45 mph) per the JTWC. The JMA's tentative forecast brings the depression up to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/1000 mbar (hPa), whereas the JTWC is slightly more intense on the system. They: A.) forecast another Philippine landfall near Puerto Princesa, B.) take the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/75 knot (85 mph) gusts, C.) predict a Vietnam landfall north of Ho Chi Minh City, D.) emerge it into the Gulf of Thailand, E.) forecast a third landfall over extreme southwestern Thailand, and F.) bring it into the Bay of Benegal with 25 knot (30 mph) winds (1-minute sustained winds)/35 knot (40 mph) gusts. If Tropical Depression 30W can do all of that, I will be very surprised. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:19, November 4, 2013 (UTC)
Yeah, the forecast track is very weird. I'll be extremely surprised if this depression could do all that. Anyway, I think we will see Podul from this, although it will probably be a weakling and break the crazy typhoon streak. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 03:11, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
This depression might not get as strong as before. The JMA has raised the system's pressure to 1006 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC has lowered their peak forecast to 55 knots (65 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Haiyan might significantly overshadow whatever Tropical Depression 30W does. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:12, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
This storm actually does have a chance of making it into the Bay of Bengal after making landfall in Southern Vietnam, but it'll have to hold itself intact (which won't hapen if it makes landfall as far north as they're expecting). Ryan1000 08:29, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
Well, Tropical Depression 30W has not gotten any stronger, and it might not get named at the rate its going. Even the JTWC kills it over southern Vietnam. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:10, November 6, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 30WEdit

And it dissipated. It did not even make it to the Vietnam. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:46, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

JTWC briefly had this at minimal TS strength for a single advisory a while ago, so this may or may not have broken the JTWC major typhoon streak. Depends on whether or not you count storms that were never named by the JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:18, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
Actually, this depression is still active as a remnant low. Today, it crossed into the NIO. More information can be found here. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:17, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
Now Tropical Depression 30W just regenerated into Depression BOB 05. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:48, November 13, 2013 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 30W has made landfall over Tamil Nadu, India, and the system should be gone for good now. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 18:55, November 16, 2013 (UTC)

32W.PODULEdit

JMA Tropical DepressionEdit

Do not expect Haiyan to be the end. We have another one coming! Per the JMA, a new tropical depression has formed. It has winds of 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) at the moment. Per the JTWC, due to vertical wind shear, the system, designated Invest 90W, has a low chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:32, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

Haiyan stole all the warm water for this one, I doubt it will do much. Ryan1000 15:59, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
Per the JMA, the depression's pressure has fallen to 1000 mbar (hPa). Also, I would like to mention how close it the system is to the equator per the JTWC tropical weather outlook:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU.

For comparison, Shanshan '13 (Crising), Sonamu '13 (Auring), and Bopha '12 (Pablo) reached latitudes of 4.2N, 3.2N, and 2.2N, respectively. This is the closest a tropical cyclone has formed to the equator since Agni in the NIO in 2004. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:21, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

Scratch what I said above. The JMA has the latitude of the depression at 1.3°N. Following a tropical cyclone (Haiyan) that possibly made the most intense tropical cyclone landfall on record, we now have a tropical depression that is challenging Vamei's title as the most Equitorial tropical cyclone on record (Vamei formed at 1.4°N). In addition, the depression is forecast to reach 35 knots (40 mph, 18 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds)/998 mbar (hPa). If the JMA's forecast pans out to be correct, Vamei will lose its crown as the closest tropical cyclone to form near the Equator. Also, I am having a little trouble determining whether or not this depression should on Wikipedia's List of Equatorial tropical cyclones list because the JTWC has not designated this systema tropical depression yet. I would appreciate your input here. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:36, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
The JMA is the official RSMC for the WPac, so I don't see why not, as JTWC is unofficial. I still don't expect this to become very strong. Ryan1000 00:07, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
The JTWC now gives the system a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone per their standards in 24 hours based on the marginally favorable environment ahead of it. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 13:05, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
I think we will see Podul from this, and it could be one of the most equatorial storms on record! —Steven09876 TalkContribs 22:08, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
The JTWC has issued a TCFA in anticipation of the system's development. It looks real organized on satellite imagery. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:39, November 10, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression ZoraidaEdit

For only the third time since the new Philippine naming lists were instituted in 2001 (after Zigzag in '03 and Zosimo in '04), we have our PAGASA 'Z' storm! One more, and we will hit the auxiliary list for the first time on the new lists. Currently at 30 kts (10-min)/1000 mbar per the JMA. According to the Sun Star, Public Storm Signal Number 1 has been raised for Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:18, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

The Philippines do not need any more. Yolanda (Haiyan) devastated them enough, and Zoraida should not follow suit. On the other hand, if we get one more PAGASA-named tropical cyclone, we will use the auxiliary list for the first time since 1994! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:45, November 11, 2013 (UTC)
The GFS and Euro don't see much coming from this, just moving into Mindanao as a TD or TS then into Vietnam after that. Hopefully this is the last of them. Ryan1000 13:10, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Podul (Zoraida)Edit

...and the typhoon train crashes to a halt. 35 kts (10-min)/1002 mbar per the JMA, and a measly 25 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. Probably too close to southern Vietnam to strengthen any further. I'm honestly shocked that we got Podul from this; last I checked, PAGASA had announced Zoraida's dissipation a couple days ago. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:45, November 14, 2013 (UTC)

I think they announced it leaving their area of responsibility, not necessarily dying out. But I'm surprised this depression managed to redeem itself when it looked like it was gonna fade away. Hopefully it's not too severe for Vietnam. Ryan1000 00:04, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
Well, I never expected Podul to come. Our typhoon streak has finally ended. Hopefully, Vietnam does not get impacted too heavily. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:28, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
What?! We have Podul? The typhoon streak has finally ended, at last. Looks like Podul will have to be a weakling, and it should crash into Vietnam tonight or so. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 01:51, November 15, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Podul (Zoraida)Edit

A weakling that just tapped Vietnam breaks our longest typhoon streak in 12 years. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:37, November 15, 2013 (UTC)

At last we stop with this typhoon madness how many did we have ? anyways Podul seems to be the last storm or one of the last one,as the Wpac may produce one last surprise before its done.Allanjeffs 16:20, November 15, 2013 (UTC)

Allan, excluding tropical depressions, we had eight straight tropical storms (Fitow, Danas, Nari, Wipha, Francisco, Lekima, Krosa, and Haiyan) become "official" typhoons. This is the longest typhoon streak since 2001, which had nine successive typhoons. Also, all of the typhoons I listed above except Fitow became "major" typhoons per the JTWC (i.e. we got a streak of seven major typhoons!). I believe this could be a world record. And in regards to the end of the season, we have a long way to go. Accuweather predicts above average activity for December in the South China and Philippine Seas. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:18, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
God, when will the WPac ever stop? This was the 32nd storm of the season, and if the WPac continues with above-average activity during December, then this season might become among the most active on record. I expect 3-4 more storms will form until the very end of the year. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 00:30, November 16, 2013 (UTC)
Steven, we have had 31 official storms, not 32. And we are already the eighth most active WPac season on record in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:47, November 16, 2013 (UTC)
Whoops, sorry. I thought we had 32 storms because of Podul's number being 32W. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 19:30, November 17, 2013 (UTC)

Ay caramba, even this little weakling proved to be a bad storm. 31 deaths and $86 million in damage in southern Vietnam due to heavy flooding. All from a storm that was a tropical cyclone by JTWC's standards for only 12 hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:08, November 20, 2013 (UTC)

33W.NONAMEEdit

Tropical Depression 33WEdit

Little fishy west of Guam.--Isaac829E-Mail 21:38, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 33WEdit

Fail.Isaac829E-Mail 21:30, December 4, 2013 (UTC)

The WPAC is finally calming down. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:38, December 5, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah, the WPac is finally calming down for the year. I think we will see Lingling before the year is over though. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 03:55, December 5, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

There are enough storms.

  • Other names - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year.
  • Usagi - 20% - Didn't do too much.
  • Haiyan - 100% - Going, going, gone.

Isaac829E-Mail 18:39, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:

  1. Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
  2. Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
  3. Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
  4. Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
  5. Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
  6. Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate.Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.--Isaac829E-Mail 19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
  7. Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
  8. Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
  9. Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
  10. Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it was that bad at all for Vietnam.
  11. Utor - 55% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $2.3 million (2013 USD) in damage, the 25 deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 95% chance of retirement.
  12. Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm.
  13. Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered.
  14. Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose. 
  15. Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan.
  16. Man-yi - 0.5% - Only one fatality was reported from Man-yi, and that does not make it a retirement nominee at all. 
  17. Usagi - 40% - Hong Kong came so close to getting nailed here. Luckily, Usagi collapsed before it could do so. However, the 50 deaths and $1.15 billion (2013 USD) in damage will make it a major retiree candidate.
  18. Pabuk - 0% - Pabuk tried...and failed.
  19. Wutip - 30% - Wutip caused lots of hype in Vietnam. Sixty-five fatalities and $233 million (2013 USD) in damage do give a small shot of leaving, considering its Vietnam's second costliest typhoon.
  20. Sepat - 0.01% - Sepat's impacts to Japan should not be enough at all to retire it. 
  21. Fitow - 50% - Fitow's $6.7 billion (2013 USD) in damage and 15 fatalities make it a pretty decent chance of going, considering all the flooding in China. 
  22. Danas - 10% - Okinawa may have gotten unlucky here. 2007's Man-yi was their last brutal beating, and Danas was not as strong as Man-yi. Still, fifteen fatalities gives it a chance.
  23. Nari - 8% - The Philippines, Vietnam, and Loas did get pounded a little. $71.4 million in damages (2013 USD) and 38 fatalities, along with some flooding, give it that small chance. 
  24. Wipha - 5% - The 13 fatalities in Japan are not looking good...
  25. Francisco - 0.1% - Francisco did affect several landmasses and became a Category 5, but I do not think it will be retired.
  26. Lekima - 0% - Lekima overtopped Usagi as the season's strongest storm, but it did not affect any landmasses, so no retirement is in store. 
  27. Krosa - 1% - Four fatalities and $4.78 million (2013 USD) in damage will not be enough for retirement, although agricultural damage in the Philippines was rather significant. 
  28. Haiyan - 99% - This was one complete mightmare. I never would have guessed that Haiyan would have gone as far up as it did. The Philippines were blown away by this monster. Seeing the damage and death pictures was something right out of a horror movie. If Haiyan does not get retired, I will be extremely surprised.
  29. Podul - 10% - Vietnam did get something after all. $168 million (2013 USD) and 31 fatalities did prove it was quite destructive.

PAGASA:

  1. Auring - 0.1% - No.
  2. Bising - 0% - No way.
  3. Crising - 2% - Not really.
  4. Dante - 0% - No way.
  5. Emong - 0.05% - No.
  6. Fabian - 0% - No way.
  7. Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
  8. Huaning - 0% - No.
  9. Isang - 0.01% - No.
  10. Jolina - 0.05% - No.
  11. Kiko - 0.05% - No.
  12. Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it.
  13. Maring - 0.5% - No. 
  14. Nando - 0.01% - No.
  15. Odette - 0.5% - Not really. 
  16. Paolo - 0.01% - No. 
  17. Quedan - 0% - No way.
  18. Ramil - 0% - No way.
  19. Santi - 3% - Not really.
  20. Tino - 0% - No way.
  21. Urduja - 0% - No way.
  22. Vinta - 2% - Not really. 
  23. Wilma - 0.5% - No.
  24. Yolanda - 99% - I almost guarantee it. 
  25. Zoraida - 0.4% - No.

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names:

  • Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
  • Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
  • Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
  • Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible. 
  • Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
  • Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
  • Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse. 
  • Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
  • Jebi - 8% - Meh.
  • Mangkhut - 10% - Not too bad.
  • Utor - 50% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though. 
  • Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse.
  • Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant.
  • Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking.
  • Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy.
  • Man-Yi - 3% - Damage in Japan wasn't too severe.
  • Usagi - 55% - 3.8 billion in damage and around 40 deaths, but like Utor, Hong Kong escaped the worst of the storm's fury.
  • Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land. 
  • Wutip - 65% - According to Dr. Master's latest blog post, this was the 2nd costliest typhoon in Vietnam's history, after 2009's Ketsana. It could go away, but I'm not 100% sure.
  • Sepat - 0% - Fish.
  • Fitow - 25% - Some damage and deaths, but China has seen worse. 
  • Danas - 0% - Gave Japan and the Koreas a scare but they came out unscathed.
  • Nari - 20% - Some damage and deaths, but probably not retirement-worthy.
  • Wipha - 15% - Zipped right by Japan as a typhoon, but didn't do as much as it could've done.
  • Francisco - 0% - This wasn't even close to as bad as it could've been.
  • Lekima - 0% - Missed land, like Francisco. But, it was pretty cool to watch.
  • Krosa - 10% - 689,000 in damage and 4 deaths isn't negligible, but probably not enough either.
  • Haiyan - 100% - Annihilated Tacloban City, killed over 1200 people, caused 14 billion in damage, there's no hope for this one to stay on the list.
  • Podul - 5% - Not comparable to Haiyan.

PAGASA names:

  • Auring - 1% - Not enough.
  • Bising - 0% - Seriously?
  • Crising - 4% - Nah.
  • Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
  • Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
  • Fabian - 0% - What?
  • Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
  • Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
  • Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
  • Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
  • Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
  • Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired.
  • Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands. 
  • Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands.
  • Odette - <5% - Largely missed Luzon.
  • Paolo - 0% - Missed the islands.
  • Quendan - 0% - Well away from the Philipines.
  • Ramil - 0% - Again, missed the islands.
  • Santi - 25% - Killed 13 people, but that's not even a shadow of what they've seen before (Bopha anyone?)
  • Tino - 0% - Not even close.
  • Urduja - 0% - Not by a long shot.
  • Vinta - 5% - Not too severe for Luzon. 
  • Wilma - 10% - Probably wasn't too severe for the islands.
  • Yolanda - 100% - Has been retired.
  • Zoraida - 5% - Same as it's JMA name, Podul.

Those are mine. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Here's my predictions:

JMA names

  • Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
  • Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
  • Yagi - 0% - Failure.
  • Leepi - 0% - No way.
  • Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
  • Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
  • Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
  • Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
  • Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
  • Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.
  • Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate!
  • Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going.
  • Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not.
  • Yutu - 0% - Nothing.
  • Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired.
  • Man-yi - 2% - Not much damage in Japan.
  • Usagi - 55% - Hong Kong almost got devastated here. Well, at least its center missed the area and it weakened, so it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. But, similar to Utor, it still caused plenty of damage and deaths and has a slight chance of retirement.
  • Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land.
  • Wutip - 60% - It's the 2nd costliest typhoon in Vietnam history! This could possibly go, but I'm not 100% sure.
  • Sepat - 0% - Another fail.
  • Fitow - 45% - Caused lots of damage in China and 15 deaths, and there is an outside shot at retirement.
  • Danas - 5% - Wasn't too bad.
  • Nari - 20% - Caused quite a bit of damage and deaths in the Philippines and Vietnam, but retirement? Probably not.
  • Wipha - 10% - This storm zipped right by Japan, and it caused some deaths and damage. But I think it will stay.
  • Francisco - 1% - Became a C5, but didn't significantly affect land. So, no retirement here.
  • Lekima - 0.1% - It became the strongest of 2013 and never affected land. That's the type of storm that I like to see! While Lekima certainly isn't going to be retired because it didn't affect land, the "0.1%" is for its awesomeness.
  • Krosa - 5% - Caused some damage to the Philippines, but no retirement here.
  • Haiyan - 100% - It's out for good now. The Philippines devastation is just too much!
  • Podul - 1% - Not enough impacts to Vietnam and the Philippines.

PAGASA names

  • Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
  • Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
  • Crising - 2% - Nah.
  • Dante - 0% - Hell no.
  • Emong - 0.1% - No.
  • Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
  • Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
  • Huaning - 0% - Nope.
  • Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
  • Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
  • Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.
  • Labuyo - Retired.
  • Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines.
  • Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts.
  • Odette - 0.5% - Not really.
  • Paolo - 0% - Missed the Philippines.
  • Quedan - 0% - See Paolo.
  • Ramil - 0% - Nope.
  • Santi - 10% - 13 deaths make it an unlikely retirement candidate, since the Philippines has seen much worse.
  • Tino - 0% - No.
  • Urduja - 0% - Well away from the Philippines.
  • Vinta - 5% - Not really.
  • Wilma - 5% - I don't think it was too severe.
  • Yolanda - 100% - Duh.
  • Zoraida - 0.5% - Not really.

Steven09876 T |C 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). Ryan1000 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
Guys, I think you underestimated Santi/Nari. Despite its low death toll count, it still managed to cause damages worth PHP 3 billion, making it a candidate for retirement. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:37, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
Doesn't mean they'd be retired though, the Philipines almost never escape a season without seeing a powerful typhoon or two. Just because it's PAGASA name went doesn't mean it's JMA name will too. Ryan1000 21:43, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
Yolanda has been retired due to the ~2,390 reported fatalities from the typhoon. I am also hearing Santi (Nari) also got removed as well. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:42, November 15, 2013 (UTC)

Haiyan will probably be the only name going this year, in my opinion. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 08:23, November 17, 2013 (UTC)

Check page 5 of the October 2013 Global Catastrophe Recap from AON Benfield: Fitow caused a whopping $6.7 billion in damage. That's an enormous price tag, and one that I would certainly not have expected. Pending a finalized damage bill from Haiyan, Fitow now ranks as the costliest storm of the season. While Bart '99, Prapiroon '00, and Songda '04 also had very high damage bills and weren't retired (though all three killed upwards of 40+ people, while Fitow had a significantly lower death toll at around 8), that's still severe and Fitow has a much higher chance of retirement than I (and probably others) originally thought. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:35, November 23, 2013 (UTC)
With all those deaths, Haiyan is still much more likely to be retired than Fitow. JMA has only retired one name every year for the past three years (Fanapi, Washi, Bopha), and if they decide that only one will go again, I almost guarantee it will be Haiyan. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 01:08, November 25, 2013 (UTC)
I also think Haiyan will be the one name retired if the JMA continues doing that trend. However, Utor and Usagi also have a chance - they both caused serious damage across the Philippines and China, but nothing near Haiyan's. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:41, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
If they continue that trend, then Haiyan will certainly be the one name retired. But I doubt they will continue that trend this year, since there were lots of other monsters such as Utor, Usagi, Wutip, and Fitow that stand a chance of retirement, and I think they will retire 2 names this year instead of just one name. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 23:21, November 28, 2013 (UTC)

On that note, I'm gonna try doing WPAC retirement predictions for the first time:

JMA:

  • Sonamu: 2% - Got us off to a very early start (one could think of Sonamu as an extension of the 2012 season, seeing as it formed on the first day of 2013 and only three days after the last storm of 2012, Wukong, dissipated), but its effects were far too light to consider retirement.
  • Shanshan: 4% - Slightly worse than Sonamu, but again, minor impact won't get the boot.
  • Yagi: 0% - Not happening.
  • Leepi: 5% - Affected a smorgasbord of areas, but didn't cause much harm to any of them.
  • Bebinca: 3% - Try harder.
  • Rumbia: 40% - It's a wait-and-see on this one, 55 fatalities is a high death toll but many WPAC storms have done worse and eluded retirement.
  • Soulik: 30% - 9 fatalities and $457 million in damage. Could've been a lot worse.
  • Cimaron: 11% - Heavy flooding, but not as bad as Soulik.
  • Jebi: 3% - Not even close to bad enough.
  • Mangkhut: 2% - Even Jebi was worse.
  • Utor: 70% - 81 fatalities with a damage bill of at least $2.6 billion. There have been worse snubs in the WPAC, but Utor was still a severe storm and deserves to be retired.
  • Trami: 25% - Heavy flooding in the Philippines and China, 20 dead with at least $388–406 million in damage. Respectable figures to be sure, but probably not enough for retirement by WPAC standards.
  • Kong-rey: 10% - Wasn't bad enough.
  • Yutu: 0% - *facepalm*
  • Toraji: 3% - Only 3 fatalities and not much damage to speak of.
  • Man-yi: 4% - See Toraji.
  • Usagi: 70% - Extensive and widespread damage with 37–50 fatalities. Roughly in the same league as Utor.
  • Pabuk: 0% - Respectably strong, but the lack of impact on land means that retirement is out of the question.
  • Wutip: 45–65% - I'm seeing inconsistencies with the death toll, with figures ranging from as low as 20 to as high as 65. My final guess on Wutip will depend on where the final death toll lands. Regardless, this was a very destructive storm for Vietnam, if not as bad as Ketsana or Mirinae from 2009.
  • Sepat: 0% - Uh, no.
  • Fitow: 65% - Extreme damage contrasted by a low death toll. We'll see.
  • Danas: 10% - Fatality and damage reports are virtually non-existent, but I refuse to believe that a direct hit from a Category 4 on Okinawa didn't do jack.
  • Nari: 35% - Raised hell in the Philippines and Vietnam, and its PAGASA name was retired, but I'm not sure if its international name will follow. However, Nari has been blamed for a plane crash in Laos that killed 49 people, but I'm not sure how plane crashes have historically factored into a storm's likelihood of retirement.
  • Wipha: 38% - A death toll of 38 in a country as well-prepared as Japan marks a pretty bad storm, but that's well below what snubs such as Tip '79, Tokage '04, and Talas '11 accomplished.
  • Francisco: <1% - Caused a scare in Japan and Guam, but didn't do much harm in the end. Really cool to watch though.
  • Lekima: 0% - Even stronger than Francisco with even less impact on land, what's not to like?
  • Krosa: 5% - Wasn't that bad.
  • Haiyan: 100% - Over 5,200 fatalities as of this post. Currently duking it out with Thelma for the title of deadliest tropical cyclone in Philippine history, and that's not to mention the post-apocalyptic physical damage. Storm of the year worldwide, and doomed to be retired.
  • Podul: 25% - 31 dead and severe damage in southern Vietnam. Probably not as bad as Wutip, but nothing to sneeze at, either.

PAGASA:

  • Auring: 3% - Nah.
  • Bising: <1% - It produced rain. That's pretty much it.
  • Crising: 5% - Light damage and a few deaths due to flooding, but retirement isn't happening, I don't think.
  • Dante: 0% - No.
  • Emong: 2% - Caused some flooding, but not much in the way of damage or fatalities.
  • Fabian: 2% - Nah.
  • Gorio: 15% - Much of the reported damage and fatalities have been from China.
  • Huaning: <1% - Did almost nothing.
  • Isang: 4% - :/
  • Jolina: 8% - Didn't do nothing, but didn't do much, either.
  • Kiko: 3% - Meh.
  • Labuyo: Retired.
  • Maring: 30% - Worsened an already severe flooding situation in the Philippines, but I'm not sure if it was bad enough on its own.
  • Nando: 0% - Didn't even come close to the Philippines.
  • Odette: 40% - It hit Batanes with significant force and caused quite a bit of damage there, but probably not as much as Labuyo did in Luzon.
  • Paolo: 1% - Probably didn't do too much, if anything.
  • Quedan: <1% - See Huaning.
  • Ramil: 0% - See Nando.
  • Santi: Retired.
  • Tino: 0% - See Nando.
  • Urduja: 0% - See Nando.
  • Vinta: 10% - Above nothing, but far below significant.
  • Wilma: 2% - Didn't do much.
  • Yolanda: Retired.
  • Zoraida: 2% - Packed a punch in Vietnam after it was named by the JMA, but its effects in the Philippines weren't as bad as they were feared they would be.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:39, November 23, 2013 (UTC)

Sonamu after being request by Malaysia after it caused a big uproar because many people where confused with the similarities of Tsunami and Sonamu pronounciation.Haiyan and Utor by Phillippines and Fitow by China.Imo Sonamu should have stay but anyhow its the first time since 2006 where 4 names have been struck down the list.Allanjeffs 21:41, February 18, 2014 (UTC)

Surprising. I knew Haiyan and Fitow were doomed because of their impacts. I am not surprised Utor is gone as well. But I am surprised Sonamu went, and the reason why it occurred. This reminds me when the HKO wanted Yanyan and Tingting off the JMA lists. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:54, February 19, 2014 (UTC)
Usagi and Wutip were snubbed, but bar Sonamu (whose retirement wasn't related to impact), at least the names that were retired deserved it. Fitow's retirement in particular was a pleasant surprise. 3 out of the best 5 retirement candidates got the boot. A 60% accuracy rate is pretty good for the WPAC, I'd say. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:19, February 22, 2014 (UTC)

Replacement namesEdit

I know it will be extremely difficult to pinpoint a replacement for a WPAC retiree. But I will still post my replacement suggestions for the storms that likely might be retired or already are retired.

Labuyo - Liberato

Yolanda - Yayang

I will not put anything in for Haiyan because a replacement name in the WPAC does not need to start with the same letter of the retiree.

Anyone else is free to post a replacement option for Haiyan (Yolanda), Labuyo, are any of the other names of the season. But here are my suggestions for you:

  • PAGASA names tend to be Filipino (but are not always so). Think of a Filipino name or a popular name in the Philippines.
  • Haiyan means petrel in Chinese. Its replacement will be a Chinese name or object.

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:50, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

Ok then! I got an idea!

  • KUMQUAT!!!! XD 金橘
  • Ping guo 苹果
  • Mang guo 芒果
  • Xiao ma 肩
  • Hu jian 小马
  • Caihong duanpao 彩虹短跑

I translated these on Google Translate. XD 

Know what these mean? POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 21:56, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

I have no idea what they'll replace Haiyan with, and since the Philipines often use adjectives in their naming lists, Yayang would do for Yolanda. Ryan1000 22:02, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
Liz, "Ping guo" means apple, "Xiao ma" means little horse, and "Mang guo" means mango. I would go with "Pingguo" or "Mangguo" as a replacement. I would not suggest "Xiaoma" as a replacement for Haiyan because it is along the lines of "Haima" on List V in this basin, which is Chinese for "sea horse". If I were to select a replacement for Haiyan, it would be "Mingming", a Chinese name for young boys. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:06, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
(edit conflict) Since a petrel is a bird, I'll suggest some Chinese translations for bird names:
  • Anchun (quail)
  • Junjian niao (frigatebird)
  • Zhi geng niao (robin)
  • Shuji zhujiao (cardinal)
  • Wuya (crow)
  • Gezi (dove)
  • Maque (sparrow)
  • Hai'ou (seagull)
  • Ti (pelican)
  • Xuan feng yingwu (cockatiel)
  • Yingwu (parrot)
And Liz, I translated those and came back with cumquat, apple (like Andrew did), mango (like Andrew did), shoulder, pony (slightly different from Andrew), and Rainbow Dash, respectively. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:21, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
Mingming is a possibility, but I personally find it unlikely due to potential confusion with Lingling or Tingting, the former of which is two names ahead of Haiyan and the latter of which was retired for unknown reasons. But since WPac replacement names don't have to begin with the retiree's first letter, I can't place a definite bet on what would replace Haiyan. Ryan1000 00:05, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
I can't really think of any names to replace Haiyan with, but Yayang does sound like a good replacement name for Yolanda. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 22:22, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
Sorry guys, but Yayang is already on the list for next year. My picks for Labuyo, Haiyan, and Yolanda are Lucas, Yingwu, and Yancy, respectively. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:22, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Besides Haiyan, there are four other storms - Utor, Usagi, Wutip, and Fitow - that I believe stand a reasonable chance of retirement. Utor is Marshallese for "squall line," Usagi is Japanese for "rabbit," Wutip is Macanese for "butterfly," and Fitow is Yapese for a beautiful fragrant flower. Unfortunately, Marshallese, Macanese, and Yapese are not available on Google Translate, so I can't come back with suggested replacement names for Utor, Wutip, or Fitow, but I did manage to translate some furry animal names into Japanese as replacements for Usagi:

  • Shika (deer)
  • Musu (moose)
  • Inu (dog)
  • Neko (cat)
  • Kemushi (caterpillar)
  • Kuma (bear)
  • Haiena (hyena)
  • Chita (cheetah)
  • Raion (lion) - might be too similar to Rai, which is Fanapi's replacement

Of these, I would pick either Neko or Kemushi to replace Usagi. Also, since Santi (Nari's PAGASA name) has been retired, my choice to replace it would be Sheila. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:52, November 24, 2013 (UTC)

I doubt anyone is going to accompany Haiyan to the JMA retirement home, but if I had to choose which other name has the best chance of leaving, I'd go with Usagi. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:37, December 2, 2013 (UTC)

Ok. Here's my suggestions:

PAGASA (replacement name can be from male to female; i.e. Sendong - Sarah (2011)):

  • Labuyo:
    • Leoncio
    • Lolita
    • Lolong (after the late crocodile who became famous in 2011; not to be confused with Loleng, a retired name by PAGASA)
    • Lito
    • Lenny (why not?)
    • Lorenzo
    • Lita
    • Leticia
    • Lina
    • Linares (a character in Noli Me Tangere)
  • Santi
    • Sandra
    • Sonia
    • Santino (might be too similar to Santi and Tino)
    • Sinang (another character in Noli Me Tangere, a novel by the Philippines' national hero (Jose Rizal))
    • Stella
    • Sharon
    • Sugpo (Filipino term for a big shrimp)
    • Stan
    • Sebastian
  • Yolanda
    • Yates
    • Yvette
    • Yvonne
    • Yancy
    • Yuri
    • Yerling (formerly in the PAGASA name list; excluded after name list change in 2001)
    • Yanni
    • Yeyeng (another name in the old PAGASA name list)
    • Ysabella/Ysabel

JMA:

  • Haiyan (petrel)
    • Dandinghe (red-crowned crane, China's national bird)
    • Maotouying (owl)
    • Luge or Lu ge (passenger pigeon)
    • Fengbao (storm)
    • Qixuan (cyclone)
    • Xuehua (snowflakes)
    • Chaoyang (a district in Beijing)
    • Nanyuan (one of two airports in Beijing)
    • Yutian (rainy day)
    • Shanyang (monkey)
    • Xiongmao (panda)
    • Gongji (rooster)
    • Yanwu (smog/vapor)
  • Usagi (constellation Lepus; rabbit)
    • Herakuresu (constellation Hercules)
    • Ryu-za (constellation Draco)
    • Sasoriza (constellation Scorpius)
    • Okina inu (Canis Major; greater dog)

So it's probable that Usagi may be retired, so I included it on the list. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:16, December 19, 2013 (UTC)

Anonymous 2.0, I highly doubt a Chinese province name will be used to replace Haiyan. Being a Chinese person myself, I would be very offended if a "Typhoon Hebei" or "Typhoon Hunan" caused massive devastation; Hebei and Hunan Province are where my family originates from. Just like how many people were offended when "Adolph" and "Israel" were on the same EPAC naming list. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:43, December 19, 2013 (UTC)
Sorry if I have offended you. My sincerest apologies. I just got too overboard. But anyway, I have already taken away the province names. But I didn't remove Nanyuan because it's like the case of Kai-tak, an airport name. (And Nanyuan is reportedly to be closed sometime in 2016 or 2018) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:15, December 25, 2013 (UTC)

PAGASA has announced its replacement names for its retirees. They are: Lannie for Labuyo (Utor), Salome for Santi (Nari), and Yasmin for Yolanda (Haiyan). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:13, February 23, 2014 (UTC)

Haiyan's final pressureEdit

What do you think Haiyan's minimum pressure will be when the TC reports are released? After all, I refuse to believe that a cyclone with 195 mph winds has a pressure of only 895 hPa. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 07:42, January 2, 2014 (UTC)

Well, I personally have very little clue on what Haiyan's true pressure was. The NOAA has several different estimates. Data Set A suggests a pressure of 884 mbar, while Data Set B suggests a pressure of 858 mbar. Also to note is that Haiyan's Dvorak intensity was 8.1. No other beast can match that intensity, not even Monica's bonafide 869 mbar reading. 8.0 on the Dvorak scale is 858 mbar. So, using my knowledge of Dvorak, Haiyan's pressure would be ~856 mbar using that technique. In reply to your question, TekkenGuy, my estimate for Haiyan's minimum pressure is the average of the two NOAA estimate readings, or 871 mbar, one millibar behind Tip, the strongest tropical cyclone of all time in terms of minimum pressure. I will also acknowledge Angela, Gay '92, and Megi had Dvorak estimates that challenged Tip's intensity as well. Scientists concluded that Gay and Megi outdid Tip, and Angela outperformed all three of those storms. But based on satellite imagery, I hypothesize Haiyan was stronger than Angela, and hence Gay, Megi, and Tip as well. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:09, January 3, 2014 (UTC)
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