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2013 Atlantic hurricane season

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Forum archives: 1

Monthly Archives: June July August September October November
Storm Event Archives: Dorian Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid
Other Basin Talkpages (2013): N. Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Hemisphere (2012-13), (2013-14) WAD

Future startEdit

Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829E-Mail 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools Edit

Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)


Well, welcome to December in the Atlantic! We may still get one more named storm, but it likely will not get very strong. Let's hope we get a re-Lili (1984) or Epsilon (2005)! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:24, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

Here is our NHC summary for the Atlantic:




A rather wimpy season, wasn't it? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:51, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah, this was a really sucky season. I don't think we are gonna get one more named storm, and certainly not a re-Lili (1984) and a Epsilon (2005). This season's done. Hats off to the crappiest Atlantic season I've ever tracked. 2014 should be better, I promise. Even though we might see an El Nino next year, there should (hopefully) be stronger storms. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 22:57, December 1, 2013 (UTC)


AOI.Eastern AtlanticEdit

The last hurrah for the Atlantic is this. Could become subtropical as it heads northeast. Ryan1000 18:02, November 27, 2013 (UTC)

Right now, this AOI is currently a weak area of thunderstorms. It could become a low-pressure system by Friday and become subtropical. It also has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the next two days and a 20% chance in the next five. Assuming this system becomes subtropical before December 1, 2013's November will be the first in eight years to two or more storms. I predict a peak intensity of 60 knots (70 mph), and this AOI will be the 'N' storm to break Noel's Category 1 curse (all three of the Atlantic Noel's were Category 1s). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:34, November 27, 2013 (UTC)
It's currently just a weak area of showers and t-storms, and if it does develop, it should peak as a strong subtropical storm and possibly be a Melissa 2.0 if it becomes tropical later on. Looks like the Atlantic is giving out one last hurrah. I think it will become Nestor by Friday, and make this November the first one in 8 years to have 2 November storms! —Steven09876 TalkContribs 22:36, November 27, 2013 (UTC)
I knew Nestor would have come sooner or later,Happy to see that the last replacement name is going to be used :D.Allanjeffs 00:26, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
Looks like there's a chance I could win the betting pool on when the season would end, if due to Nestor instead of Rebekah like I had hoped (still waiting on Rebekah to make its debut, 17 years after it was chosen as Roxanne's replacement). I'm really hoping for a Category 1 (or maybe even a hardcore expert-level Category 2) hurricane out of this. Granted, that will probably not happen due to the Great Atlantic Curse of 2013, but hey, a man can dream, can't he? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:45, November 27, 2013 (UTC)
Models don`t make it strong I believe a peak between 65 and 70mph will be right on the spot.Allanjeffs 00:28, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
I believe 60 knots (70 mph)/980 mbar (hPa) would be a good peak estimate for the AOI. As for the system itself, its thunderstorm activity has improved and it now has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:37, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
This could easily be the first post-season storm we've seen in 6 years, though I don't expect this to be a hurricane, I do hope it becomes TS Nestor. It shouldn't affect land while it's a tropical cyclone, aside from, maybe the Azores. Ryan1000 15:11, November 28, 2013 (UTC)


Now it's an invest. Ryan1000 20:02, November 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here comes the 14th storm of the season and one of the names I have been waiting for.Allanjeffs 21:37, November 28, 2013 (UTC)

NESTER PARTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :DDDD!!!!!! Sad thing though, I'm writing my exams next week :p. What do ya guys think of "Nester?" “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 22:59, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
It's "Nestor" not "Nester". Here comes the 14th storm of the season, Nestor! Can't wait for the name to make its first show since it replaced Noel. I think it will become subtropical either tomorrow or Saturday, and peak at around 60-65 mph. BTW, happy Thanksgiving to all Americans!!! —Steven09876 TalkContribs 23:09, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
lol ok tyvm for telling me. AND TOMORROW IS BLACK FRIDAY, HAPPY TURKEY DAY!!! :D om nom nom XD we still have to go to school here XD and lol. hurry up nestOr. lol XD
Well, we have Thanksgiving break, so we don't have school the whole week! Lucky me!! :D —Steven09876 TalkContribs 23:37, November 28, 2013 (UTC) 
That's good to hear XD We had a school concert by the way, AWESOME school concert, I was an alto in the choir!! :D “i liek turtlez 23:42, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
Bad news guys, seems like the great curse of 2013 could strike again. NHC says conditions will only be favorable for 1 or 2 more days until they turn too hostile for development. Ryan1000 01:56, November 29, 2013 (UTC)
Invest 90L now has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next five days. Maybe Nestor may need to wait a little. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:02, November 29, 2013 (UTC)
Looks like Nestor is not coming from this and if it comes it will be an epic fail.:(Allanjeffs 05:36, November 29, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Any development from this invest is going to be very slow now. Although it has become a low pressure system, it is entering unfavorable conditions, and the invest has just a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and five days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 13:36, November 29, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like the great Atlantic curse of 2013 strikes again! It's still at 10% (48 hours and 5 days). Gosh, I really wanted to see Nestor this year! Now, unless we get a December surprise, we have to wait until 2019, 6 whole loooong years bro. Goddammit, I really wanted to see new names do something. =( —Steven09876 TalkContribs 19:22, November 29, 2013 (UTC)
And the invest has gone off the TWO. It looks like Melissa is the end, unless we get a re-Olga (2007). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 18:52, November 30, 2013 (UTC)

Maybe not guys, 90L up there again, 20% on NHC. Post-season Nestor anyone? Ryan1000 22:44, December 4, 2013 (UTC)

And with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), this could easily become our season's third hurricane is it becomes tropical. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:41, December 5, 2013 (UTC)
Maybe we could see a post-season surprise with Nestor, but this invest only has a small window of opportunity for development before it runs into strong upper-level winds and cold water in a couple days. While it's producing winds of 60 mph, I'll be very surprised if it becomes a hurricane, especially so late in the year. I think that the Great Atlantic Curse of 2013 will strike again, and kill this invest before it could even become tropical! Who knows what could happen to this thing? Since it is producing winds of 60 mph, it might have an outside shot of hurricane status, but I doubt that will happen since it is 2013... —Steven09876 TalkContribs 03:44, December 5, 2013 (UTC)
You guys know which storm had 50 kt winds when it was first classified? Karen. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:21, December 5, 2013 (UTC)
It's down to near 0% and should be off the TWO soon. Oh well, I guess the season is done for good. Farewell, 2013 AHS. I can't wait to see what the 2014 Atlantic season will have in store, hopefully it will be a better season than this year! —Steven09876 TalkContribs 18:13, December 8, 2013 (UTC)
Well, Invest 90L is off the TWO once more, likely for good. This should be the end of the 2013 AHS. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:06, December 9, 2013 (UTC)


It won't hurt to start this early :P --Isaac829E-Mail 23:33, October 31, 2013 (UTC)

Farewell? WHAT farewell? -_- It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:45, October 31, 2013 (UTC)

Oh wait, never mind. Looks like the next 2013 storm won't come after all. It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:49, October 31, 2013 (UTC)

We still have one month of hurricane season left, but we'd need a miracle to cover up the ACE hole we're in right now. The number of hurricanes the Atlantic had so far this season is the lowest number of hurricanes for any Atlantic hurricane season since there were none in 1914, although tied with 1982. Even so, that year was an El Nino year, while this season was neutral. There were also no major hurricanes this season, the first time since 1994 and the first time it ever happened in a non-El Nino year, as 1994, 1986, 1972, and 1968 were all El Nino years. There is a very slight chance we could have a big storm in November, but statistically speaking 94% of all tropical cyclones that have ever formed in the Atlantic have formed before this time of year, and with the way this year has gone, I highly doubt that will happen. We'd need a miracle in November to avoid those records this year, and given the current outlooks from the global models, it's not looking promising the Atlantic will get anything for the rest of the season. Ryan1000 00:07, November 1, 2013 (UTC)
It looks like this might be the end of the season. I give up on the Atlantic, I just hate 2013's logic. I'm done   with the Atlantic this year. This sucks, but at least we don't have a Sandy or Katrina hitting the US. Simlover123 02:47, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
Less than 20 days before the end of the season...--Isaac829E-Mail 23:32, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
There's still a chance something could happen, but since none of the models are calling for it, I wouldn't be surprised if the season ends where it is now. Ryan1000 13:21, November 11, 2013 (UTC)
Expect Melissa and maybe Nestor in the tropical Atlantic as they both are being portrait in all the models in 5 days.Allanjeffs 21:33, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
The GFS and Euro do see something that could possibly become Melissa in the Central Atlantic in 4 or 5 days, but it will likely be a subtropical-esque storm. I doubt anything they're expecting will be a strong hurricane, this could very well be the first non-El Nino year ever to lack a single major hurricane. Ryan1000 21:45, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
Ugh, hurry up Melissa. Do you want me to start calling you Not-So-Speedy Gonzales? Don't think so. Nestor, you donkey. You flipping long-eared donkey. Let's get a move on. POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 22:46, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
If Melissa and Nestor come this month, they will be weaklings, no doubt. The Atlantic is about over now, and this season has been really pathetic this year! Hopefully 2014 will be much better. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 00:15, November 16, 2013 (UTC)
Looking back on the post I made a few days ago, looks like Melissa won't be the weakling I thought. It actually has an outside shot at hurricane status, but only a weak one (C1 at most). I don't think we will see Nestor anymore, and Melissa could be the end of the season. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 23:43, November 18, 2013 (UTC)

90L is probably done for by now. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has finally ceased to be. Dr. Master's latest blog post pulls up some nice highlights about the activity through the season. For starters, the ACE this year was only 1/3 of the 1981-2012 average (30 units, the lowest since 1983 and lowest non-El Nino ACE since 1977). The 13 named storms is above the average of 10 to 11, but the two hurricanes and 0 major hurricanes is well below the average of 5-6 and 2-3 respectively. The number of named storm days this year was 35.75, the lowest since 2009 and lowest in a non El Nino year since 2007. Only 2 hurricanes formed this year, the lowest in any non El Nino year since there were none in 1914. No majors formed this year, first time since 1994 and first time ever in a non-El Nino year. The strongest storm peaked at 85 mph, that's the weakest strongest storm of a season since there weren't any hurricanes in 1914, although tied with 1968, which was again an El Nino year. Humberto is also the second-latest first hurricane of a season, reaching hurricane strength only hours before Gustav of 2002, and it is the latest date for the first hurricane in a non-El Nino year since reliable records in 1950. The amount of dry air injected into the Atlantic during the heart of the season by the drought in Brazil, the Tropical Upper Trophospheric Trough (TUTT), and the Saharan Air Layer suppressed otherwise favorable conditions for development, including a lack of El Nino, warmer than usual SST's, and lack of high wind shear. The only particularly notable storm of the season was Ingrid, which killed 23 and caused 1.5 billion dollars of damage to Mexico, making it the 7th costliest hurricane in the country's history. A few other storms like Andrea, Barry, Fernand, and Gabrielle also caused some impacts as well, but overall I'd say this was a huge break for most of the Atlantic. The U.S. has now gone 8 years without a major hurricane landfall (although Sandy and/or Ike arguably qualify due to their extreme impacts), and the Caribbean Islands and Canada also got fairly lucky. Mexico was the only place that got a beating this year, but it's not like Mexico hasn't seen destructive hurricanes before (2010). Ryan1000 19:07, November 29, 2013 (UTC)

Wow, the activity in the Atlantic this year was absolutely pathetic! I can't believe some of the inactivity records that this season broke. First time ever that no majors formed in a non-El Nino year, weakest strongest storm since 1968, the latest first hurricane ever in a non-El Nino year, and the lowest ACE since 1983? Now that shows how pathetic our season has been!!! Even though next year might be an El Nino, I hope that 2014's season will be much better than 2013! So, let's all say farewell to what has been an extremely pathetic season. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 19:42, November 29, 2013 (UTC)
2013 had all the favorable conditions for a hyperactive season. No El Nino conditions were present, SST's were above normal, wind shear was average, sea level pressures were below average, and the African Monsoon was going crazy. But do you know what happened? Dry air from the Sahara and Brazil invaded, overwhelming all the favorable conditions we had. That is the reason Chantal, Dorian, Erin, and Karen all fell flat on their faces, and why Humberto did not become the major we all were rooting for. Some of the other storms, such as Barry, Fernand, and Ingrid, were just too close to land when they tried to explode. They could easily have become very strong systems if Mexico did not get in the way. Also, the fact the MJO departed from the Atlantic for most of September did not help the inactivity that month. Even when the MJO was favorable, such as when Gabrielle, Humberto, and Ingrid developed, few cyclones came. There were other reasons the Atlantic was quiet. The tropical regions were dead dry this year, which caused the dry air that murdered most of this year's system's to death. In addition, subsidence (sinking anomalous motion in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)) suppressed all the deep convection needed for a tropical cyclone to develop and maintain its intensity. An anomalous vector wind flow may also have caused the dry air. Furthermore, tropical Atlantic rainfall was virtually nonexistent in the Caribbean this year, which explains why only one tropical storm, Chantal, existed in the Caribbean this season. Moreover, the eastern subtropical Atlantic witnessed below average SST's, causing very early recurvature of the tropical waves that attempted to develop. A similar phenomenon occured in 2007 - the reason all there was so much TD/TS/C1 spam that year (minus Dean and Felix) were because of those conditions. Finally, steering flow drove the tropical cyclones that did form (e.g. Gabrielle) away from the United States, continuing our luck streak.
And I do want to make a comment about the CSU forecast. It did not take into account most of Melissa's life. Our ACE is actually ~33 units right now, not ~30 as the CSU forecast. So Ryan and Steven, our ACE is actually the lowest since 1994 (which generated 32 ACE units). All in all, do not go blaming the ENSO; this is a different story than 1997, 2002, 2006, or 2009, all of which had El Nino affect them. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:42, November 29, 2013 (UTC)
Well, this is it. The 2013 AHS is finally over with. Here are our total statistics:
  • 14 tropical depressions
  • 13 tropical storms
  • 2 hurricanes (Tied with 1930 and 1982 for the lowest number since 1925)
  • 0 major hurricanes (Record low and first since 1994)
  • 47 fatalities (Fourth lowest since 1992 after 2002, 2006, and 2009 and lowest in a non-El Nino year since 1984)
  • $1.51 billion (2013 USD) in losses (Lowest in a non-El Nino year since 2001)
  • An accumulated cyclone energy of 33.32 (Lowest since 1994 (1977 excluding El Ninos))

This was definitely a very weak season. However, this will serve many benefits to the areas recovering from last year's storms (Isaac and Sandy). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:46, November 30, 2013 (UTC)

Farewell? that heading should be changed to: "Go away, I never want to see you again" IMO 1983 is a better season than this, at least it HAD a major hurricane, unlike this sorry excuse of a season.         >:(

leeboy100 (talk) 00:58, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

Leeboy, I have to agree with you. Even El Nino years had better intensity than 2013. 1992 was anything but active - just seven named storms, yet Andrew, Bonnie, and Charley reached Category 2 (or greater) intensity, and Andrew was the costliest Atlantic hurricane of its time. 1994 had no major hurricanes, but it had Gordon, an utter catastrophe for Haiti. 1982 was dead of all activity, but Debby, the northernmost-forming Category 4 hurricane, came. 2006 was also rather lackluster, but it still got an ACE of 79 and gave birth to Gordon and Helene. 2009 was just pathetic, but even then, we got two majors, Bill and Fred, and Ida was pretty bad for Nicaragua. Even 1972, which also failed to bust a major, got Agnes, the "wet" disaster for the Northeast. 1968 and 1925 come arguably close to this year's inactivity. Blame the dry air. It canceled out the effects of the otherwise awesome conditions we had, as I explained above.

Also, to give an idea of how pathetic our strongest storm (Humberto) was ACEwise, here are some comparisons between Humberto's ACE and the ACEs of El Nino years or similarly active years stormwise:

If Humberto was a 1992 storm: 1. Andrew - 28.4475 ACE units 2. Bonnie - 23.115 units 3. Charley - 10.9375 units 4. Humberto - 8.8225 units 5. Frances - 6.5025 units

If Humberto was a 2006 storm: 1. Helene - 24.3 ACE units 2. Gordon - 22.2 units 3. Florence - 9.6 units 4. Humberto - 8.8225 units 5. Isaac - 6.46 units

If Humberto was a 2002 storm: 1. Isidore - 17.805 ACE units 2. Lili - 16.4635 units 3. Kyle - 14.435 units 4. Humberto - 8.8225 units 5. Dolly - 3.9375 units

If Humberto was a 1996 storm: 1. Edouard - 49.3175 ACE units 2. Fran - 22.8875 units 3. Lili - 22.63 units 4. Hortense - 21.8225 units 5. Bertha - 17.38 units 6. Isidore - 12.88 units 7. Humberto - 8.8225 units 8. Marco - 6.0875 units

If Humberto was a 1950 storm: 1. Dog - 62.5575 ACE units 2. Able - 32.4674 units 3. Fox - 27.045 units 4. Charlie - 26.895 units 5. Baker - 17.895 units 6. Easy - 15.14 units 7. George - 14.625 units 8. Jig - 13.56 units 9. King - 11.81 units 10. Humberto - 8.8225 units 11. Love - 7.23 units

From these comparisons, my point is activitywise, even El Nino years and seasons with similar total storm numbers as 2013 did far better than this Atlantic season did. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:48, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

Farewell, 2013 AHS! Now get lost. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:31, December 1, 2013 (UTC)
I know right? Get lost, 2013 AHS. No one likes you. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 22:58, December 1, 2013 (UTC)
Except the victims of Sandy who benefited from the lack of activity. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:39, December 1, 2013 (UTC)
Here is a video that shows what would have happened had all the 13 storms of the season reached the most aggressive scenario forecasted for each of them. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:02, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far.

My predictions:

Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going.

Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well.

Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case.

Dorian - 0% - It regenerated after everyone said it was done, but I doubt it will go.

Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin.

Fernand - 0.8% -The flood threats from Fernand, along with eighteen fatalities, make Fernand the season's deadliest storm, but it is extremely doubtful it will go. 

Gabrielle - 0.1% - Some slight effects occured in Hispaniola, but it otherwise fell flat on its face. However, it did redeem itself.

Humberto - 0.01% - Humberto did break our TS streak. However, it is staying, despite minor effects on Cape Verde.

Ingrid - 40% - Ingrid does have a better chance than some of you think. It flooded up northeastern Mexico, and it is deadlier than Kenna and Anita, both of which got retired for primarily affecting Mexico. Damage totals of $1.5 billion (2013 USD) and 23 fatalities do give Ingrid a small chance of leaving, but keep in mind Manuel has overshadowed her significantly. 

Jerry - 0% - Was nothing more than an epic fail.

Karen - 0.01% - Karen was slightly better than Jerry, but still, no way.

Lorenzo - 1% - Even if Lorenzo was an epic fail while tropical, its remnants did fuel Cyclone Christian (the St. Jude's Day windstorm), which caused an insane amount of damage in the U.K. I am not sure if this is going to spill retirement for Lorenzo, especially if he was not the direct cause (but his remnants played a key role in Christian exploding).

Melissa - 0% - In terms of pressure, Melissa is tied as our season's strongest storm, but still, no. 

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

STO12's Predictions

  • ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement.
  • BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement.
  • CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal.
  • DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more.
  • ERIN: 0% No impact to land.
  • FERNAND ? Predictions for Fernand will be released once the storm has dissipated.

ST✪12 02:02, August 26, 2013 (UTC)

But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- ST✪12 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Here's my predictions:

  • Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement.
  • Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired.
  • Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact.
  • Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done.
  • Erin - 0% - See Jerry.
  • Fernand - 10% - I never expected it to be as bad as this. It killed 18 people. But still, since Mexico rarely retires names, I don't think it is going. 
  • Gabrielle - 1% - Not much impact.
  • Humberto - 0% - It became the season's first hurricane, but no land impacts, so no retirement here.
  • Ingrid - 50% - With 1.5 billion dollars in damage and 23 deaths, Ingrid has an outside shot at retirement. It's only a 50/50 chance though, since Mexico rarely retires names.
  • Jerry - 0% - EPIC FAIL!!!
  • Karen - 0% - Kinda better than Jerry, but still, it EPICALLY failed. It just fell flat on its face in the Gulf of Mexico!
  • Lorenzo - 0% - What an epic, epic fail. Along with Erin, Jerry, and Karen, it gets the Award of Epically Failing. This shall explain how much these storms EPICALLY FAILED!
  • Melissa - 0% - Impressive by this season's standards, reaching an incredible 65 mph. It didn't affect land and was subtropical during the first half of its life, so yeah, we have another hilarious fail.

Steven09876 T |C 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

RyanK is here:

  • Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe.
  • Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough.
  • Chantal - 1% - I was really hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, tack a 1% on it for the death in the Dominican Republic.
  • Dorian - 0% - It tried, but failed.
  • Erin - 0% - What a disgrace.
  • Fernand - 8% - Worse than Barry, but still not retirement-worthy.
  • Gabrielle - 0% - What a dissapointing storm...yeah it came back but still, it was weak and caused no damage or deaths.
  • Humberto - 0% - Our first hurricane, but didn't do anything other than bring a shower or two to Cape Verde. 
  • Ingrid - 60% - Actually, scratch what I said before, this was pretty destructive. With 1.5 billion in damage and 23 deaths, we have a decent retirement canidate here. I don't care what Mexico says, I had no idea Ingrid was that bad. Do I think it will be retired? No, but those are definitely considerable numbers. 
  • Jerry - 0% - Another fish, another failure...
  • Karen - -1% - ......
  • Melissa - 0% - A non-tropical fish, neat.

That's all for now. Ryan1000 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

I love how you just skipped over Lorenzo lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:44, November 22, 2013 (UTC)
The amount of fail in Lorenzo is so strong I cannot disclose a percentage of retirement for him. Forgive me. Ryan1000 00:50, November 25, 2013 (UTC)
Can't be worse than Karen, now can it be? :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:36, November 25, 2013 (UTC)
-1% is being generous lol. I would go further negative if I wanted to. Ryan1000 04:54, November 25, 2013 (UTC)

THIS... IS... SPARTA!!!!

“i liek turtlez 23:04, November 28, 2013 (UTC)

I thought I had done my already anyways.

Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question.

Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico.

Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail

Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will.

Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain

Fernand: 8% Not a fail but nothing that Mexico haven`t seen before

Gabrielle 1% She is finally out, that percent is for slight flooding in the virgin islands  and PR

Humberto 1% Our first hurricane and some rain to the cape verde islands but nothing more.His second life was a bust.

Ingrid: 10% I would love to give her a little more but she was not as bad as predict an Manuel is describe as being worse than her by Mexico news.So she is not going sorry.Manuel really put her at nothing now.

Jerry 0% Better than I imagine but still a fish and  a ts

Karen 0% Biggest troll of the season,she play with a lot of bloggers emotions,what she did was inexcusable.

Lorenzo 0% As a fail it comes as a fail it goes.Pathetic!

Melissa 0% And the last breath of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane is done.She was the strongest sub tropical storm ever I believe but she didn`t affect land.She was cool to see though.Allanjeffs 07:06, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

.Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Allan, the subtropical storm of 2000 reached a pressure of 978 mbar, slightly stronger than Melissa. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 13:37, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway:

  • Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said.
  • Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening.
  • Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else.
  • Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no.
  • Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that.
  • Fernand: 10% - Barry Plus. I did not expect as many as 13 people to die from this thing (the 5 in Honduras were from the precursor wave, so I'm not sure if they count), but if Arlene '11 didn't go, then neither will Fernand.
  • Gabrielle: 0% 3% - A waste of tropical energy.
  • Managed to regenerate and it's more impressive now than it ever was. We'll see what happens, but it shouldn't be too bad in Bermuda.
  • Cool to watch in its second life. Minimal impact in Bermuda, but I heard that flooding was apparently severe in the Virgin Islands. No damage or fatality figures as of now, though.
  • Humberto: 0% - We got our first hurricane out of Humby, but as far as effects on land go, it was nothing more than a re-Erin for Cape Verde.
  • Ingrid: 15% 55% - Worse than Fernand, but still not bad enough to warrant retirement. Manuel royally outshined Ingrid.
  • That $1.5 billion damage estimate is shockingly high. If Alex didn't get the boot for a greater damage bill and more than twice as many fatalities (Ingrid's 23-34 vs. Alex's 51-73), then it might not be wise to pin Ingrid's odds too high, but, as Ryan said above, the numbers more than qualify.
  • Jerry: 0% - *facepalm*
  • Karen: 0% - Wanna hear a joke?
  • Lorenzo: 0% - Lawl.
  • Melissa: 0% - Impressive by this season's standards, but hell no.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC)  

Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
Gamma shouldn`t have been retire because damaga was not enough and if one of them should had been retire would have been 2005 as it was the deadliest of all the Greek letters.Allanjeffs 05:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
You mean Gamma? And look at this and tell me damage wasn't severe. 19 people died and Delta wrought $364 million in damage. Considering all the destruction was on the Canary Islands, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure if it would've been retired if the Canary Islands were part of the WMO group that represents the Atlantic basin, but still. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:36, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
I'm don't think Spain is part of the WMO's list of countries in the North Atlantic, but if it is, or was, they sure would've retired Delta if they had the chance. The only disasters the Canary Islands see that are worse than rare storms like Delta are eruptions from the volcanoes on the islands (uncommon) or massive earthquakes/tsunamis from the Azores-Gibraltar Transform Fault that caused the great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 (extremely rare). But 19 deaths and 364 million in damage are definitely retirement-worthy numbers, especially for them. Ryan1000 15:23, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
Thanks Dylan yes it was Gamma,and Spain is not part of the region only NAmer Central America and the Caribbean islands too.I believe Colombia may be but not remember I will ask my friend to give me the page again of the members,But the WMO can still ask for retirement if the country doesn`t ask that is the rule.I am not sure why they never ask for Gordon or Hanna though.Allanjeffs 21:18, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
Gordon was not retired because Haiti, for some unknown (and possibly unexcusable) reason, did not send a delegate to the WMO retirement conference. I assume Hanna stayed for the same reason. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:26, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
In 1994 Haiti was suffering a civil war one of the worst of the country I imagine that is the prime reason as no one was interested in that kind of things in a period like that,Not sure with Hanna,and like I say if the country delegate don`t ask for retirement member of the WMO might.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

Well, even if Spain isn't part of the list of countries in the WMO, I bet that they could nominate a name if they so wished to. But the main areas are North America, Central America, the Caribbean, or, in the case of Fabian, Bermuda. If a big hurricane hits Spain/Portugal in the future I bet they could nominate it, but it's highly unlikely and they're in a pretty tight economic situation anyways. Asking for a hurricane name to be retired isn't likely something they would ask for. Ryan1000 22:25, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

My bets:

  • All - 0% - *Presses button for failhorn*. I don't think anything could change my bet now.

--Isaac829E-Mail 22:17, October 3, 2013 (UTC)

Pretty much this. ^ Ryan1000 22:12, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

my turn

everything: 0% 

leeboy100 (talk) 18:44, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Simlover has spoken:

  • Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Fernand, and Gabrielle: 5% - Caused damage of some sort, but not enough whatsoever.
  • Ingrid: 20% - Even though Ingrid was worse than Fernand, Manuel beat her up in the end.
  • Everything else: 0% - Lots of fails.

Simlover123 01:07, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

I hope it isn't pretentious for me to place my estimates, as low as they may be, given my somewhat inactive and very new standing here on the wiki. Ah well, here we go anyway! Note: Percentages don't include non-damage based retirement probabilities, such as for political or other reasons for retirement (as has occurred in the East Pacific)

Andrea: 0%. Despite its early-season landfall and 4 deaths, we'll see Andrea again in 2019.

Barry: <1%. Damage and deaths in Central America and Mexico, but they've seen oh so much worse.

Chantal: 0%. Barely even existed, and impacts hardly worth mentioning.

Dorian: 0%. Bonus points for regenerating and lasting longer than most this year, but Dean's replacement is gonna be on the 2019 list.

Erin: 0%. Possibly THE most pitiful storm of the year, but it has stiff competition for that title in this boring year.

Fernand: <1%. Tropical Storm Barry Two: Barry Harder, coming to theatres Summer 2013! Death toll nowhere near high enough for Mexico to ask for retirement, but still second deadliest of the season.

Gabrielle: 0%. Well hey, she tried. More than I can say for several other storms this year. But no damage means no retirement. See ya in six years, Gabby.

Humberto: 0%. Ended our dreadful no-hurricane streak, but a pretty pitiful hurricane by the standards of any other year but this one. No retirement for this storm whose name always amuses me.

Ingrid: 15%. Incredibly, our worst storm of the season, unless something happens in November. I get the feeling that Manuel will get the blame for most of the deaths and damage, and given Mexico's track record with retirement, I doubt that Ingrid is going anywhere, though it has an outside shot. But at least the 'I' named storm was a hurricane this year again. Unless the final damage and death toll is several times higher than it is currently, Ingrid stays - and even if it does wind up costing a lot or causing tons of deaths, I doubt it's going... see Karl and Matthew, 2010.

Jerry: 0%. Along with Erin and Karen, biggest failure of the year.

Karen: -3.9%. ... I don't even think you tried.

Lorenzo: 0%. Still active, but... yeah, sorry, 2013's not gonna let you do anything worth retiring.

So yeah. In some alternate universe somewhere similar to ours, Ingrid may be briefly thought of by some met at the WMO meeting, but I doubt he/she will speak up, or it'll come out as 'Manuel' rather than 'Ingrid'. We'll more than likely join 2009 and 2006 as having the exact same name list again in six years, as nothing warrants retirement in the Atlantic this season. TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 15:30, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Ingrid may have a small shot but I still doubt it.The damage right now is 1.5 billion dollars in damage I believe some damage of Manuel was estimate in Ingrid so that might be the reason is so high.but oh well I believe only Manuel is going but with the snoobs Mexico have done there is a possibility he is staying.Allanjeffs 16:39, October 25, 2013 (UTC)

Ingrid's damage might have been too high or too low, but it's the best shot at anything being retired thus far for the Atlantic. Ryan1000 20:11, October 25, 2013 (UTC)
Even if nothing gets retired after this season (expect possibly Ingrid), I do want to make a comment about Lorenzo. He was quite the epic fail as a tropical cyclone. However, his remnants fueled the great St. Jude's Day Windstorm (Cyclone Christian). The windstorm caused some serious wind damage (such as blowing down this mill's cap!) and 17 fatalities across most of Europe, and was even compared to the Great Storm of 1987. I think this could up Lorenzo's chance of retirement. However, do keep in mind Lorenzo was not the direct cause of Christian (his remnants fueled it), and other ex-Atlantic hurricane beasts (Katia '11 and Charley '86) were not retired for affecting the same general regions as Christian did. Similarly, in 2011, ex-Hurricane Rina merged with the great Halloween nor'easter that year, which later became Cyclone Quinn (as named by FU-Berlin) as it moved over the Atlantic. However, since Rina did not directly cause Quinn (the Halloween nor'easter), she was not retired. So Lorenzo likely will stay, but if a European country wants to, by chance, kick out Lorenzo, they have a reason to do so. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 13:14, November 27, 2013 (UTC)
Apparently, storm "St Jude" will be upgraded to storm "Hey Jude" if it goes on and on for about 17 choruses. #ukstorm #stormageddon#StJude LOL LOOK AT THIS XD BUT THE THING IS THOUGH, LORENZO'S REMNANTS DIDN'T DO THAT MUCH TO NA NA NA ST JUDE. we just got a "whooo whooo whooo" outta mah window when na na na st jude came. he wasn't that bad up north but wat AAAHHHH down south. so, who knows? the uk or some other eu country might retire him. nna na na na na na hey jude!! weeeeee!!!!! “i liek turtlez 23:35, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
No Andrew it will stay because they were remnants.Lorenzo was not tropical at that point either so as they were only remmnants they don`t count its like a what happen with Kyle in 2008 it cause disastrous flooding in PR but it was not name at the time so they couldn`t ask for retirement.Allanjeffs 00:18, November 29, 2013 (UTC)

Mid-season predictionsEdit

This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here.

For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict:

16 named storms (Pablo), 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes.

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
I'm thinking 11 named storms, 3 (or 4) hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This is looking like a near-average to inactive season. Steven09876 T |C 02:29, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
Steven, I think you are seriously underestimating the potential future activity for this season. The only reason we have not gone bonkers like 2005 or 2008 yet is because the SAL is keeping all these tropical waves in check. However, today, the SAL will depart the Atlantic for good, and from here on out, we could see a mega-explosion in activity. 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988, and 2001 had no hurricanes yet by this time in the season, yet all of them ended with at least five (1967 had six and 2001 had nine). 1961 had a record-dead August, but once September came, the Atlantic went nuts with five tropical storms, four of which (Betsy-Esther) ultimately became major hurricanes, and then had two major hurricanes form in October (Frances and Hattie). 1964 also went crazy after August (five major hurricanes formed after September 1!!!). The truth is, we actually have a long way to go, and now is not the time to write off the season. I now think 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes will be our final tally. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:52, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
Alright, I'm now thinking 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Looks like the Atlantic might explode in September after all. But still, this season will be nowhere near the activity of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Steven09876 T |C 03:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
Yeah, this season isn't over yet. The Saharan Air Layer is starting to die down and the MJO will peak over the next two weeks. SST's are still above-normal for the Atlantic, and conditions are ripe for an explosion of activity to occur from here until say, late October. The two AOIs (one in the Central Atlantic, the other over Africa) have unfavorable conditions for now, but they could move into more favorable conditions later on. The Atlantic is far from dead; if you ask me it's just sleeping for now. But when it wakes up, it'll take off. Ryan1000 13:33, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
Because of the heavy shear and lack of the season to get on with it, I am downgrading my prediction to 14 total storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and an ACE of 60. Unless we pull a 2001 explosion of activity, we are doomed. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:37, September 6, 2013 (UTC)
I'm surprised the Atlantic has been so lackluster in activity...the SAL and wind shear are more persistent than I (and many climate experts + NHC) thought they'd be. Ryan1000 15:03, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

I now predict that we will end at 12-11-2-0. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:11, September 29, 2013 (UTC)

FWIW, judging from the TCRs of Andrea, Dorian, and Erin, and the ATCF files of every other tropical storm, we currently have an ACE of 28.81. Slightly higher than I thought, but still absolutely pathetic. For comparison, last year's Nadine managed an ACE of 26.34 all by itself. Were the season's current ACE champ, Humberto, a storm in last year's AHS, it would rank in sixth behind Nadine, Michael, Leslie, Sandy, and Isaac, and less than half a point ahead of Gordon and Ernesto. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:34, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
LOL, Humberto thinks it's 2012. LOL. 0x40pxRubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 22:07, October 7, 2013 (UTC)

Well, at least that is better than compared to 2004's storms. For comparison, Ivan (70.38), Frances (45.92) and Karl (28.4375) both generated higher ACEs than this entire season! In addition, Jeanne whipped 24.235 units of ACE by herself!! If Humberto was a storm in 2004, he would be bowing down to Ivan, Frances, Karl, Jeanne, Danielle, Lisa, Alex, and Charley! That is over 50% of all of 2004's storms. Now that illustrates how pathetic this season has been! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:02, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

2004 was 6th in the top 10 highest ACE of any season, despite the fact an El Nino formed that year, so El Nino years don't always guarantee quiet seasons. That's something to watch out for next year. Also, 2004 was one of the costliest seasons ever, and the costliest on record at the time (2005 and 2012 have surpassed it since then, and 2008 came agonizingly close). Storms with high ACEs are amazing to watch, but also very sadening when they wreck entire countries, as some of the storms in 2004 did. Ryan1000 12:33, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
Ryan 2004 was a Modiki el Niño and they are typycally as active as a Neutral year or even la Niña.2006 and 2009 instead were El Niño years and 1997 was a super El Niño.Allanjeffs 22:59, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
If there is that "Very Very Very Cyclonic Storm" in India right now, then there MIGHT BE A BIG FAT cane comming in da Atlantik!! Might happen with Oktaiv in da Paciffik! Woooot!! XD 0x40pxRubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 23:06, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
My point was, El Nino year  negligible year. We've had quite a few El Nino years before, aside from 2004, that were memorable years. 1972 was a very strong El Nino year -- so strong it had no major hurricanes, but Hurricane Agnes was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history at the time, and one of the deadliest as well. 1983 was a very strong El Nino also but Alicia was one of the costliest hurricanes on record at the time. 1992 and 1994 were also fairly powerful El Nino years but Hurricanes Andrew and Gordon, respectively, made those years quite memorable too. It's unlikely next year will be very active due to the expected El Nino by then, but that doesn't mean it won't be, and even if it's not very active with regards to ACE or named storms, it'll still be memorable if we get a big storm. While some El Nino years (like the ones you mentioned) are easily forgotten seasons, others can produce some of the biggest, most notable, storms ever. Ryan1000 22:21, October 11, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Season ChangesEdit

This could've begun a little sooner, but Andrea's TCR was released on the 22nd, 8 days ago. Not much has changed, winds are still 65 mph (55 knots), and it caused around 25 million in insured losses and 1 direct death in NC, 3 indirect ones from traffic accidents. Anyone have opinions on what will happen post-season? I think there might have been a storm in the Atlantic in June earlier from what was 92L on June 6, if not a storm a brief depression. Ryan1000 19:40, August 30, 2013 (UTC)

I could see a slight change in damages for Barry, and a slight intensity upgrade for Fernand and Dorian's second life. And I doubt Invest 92L will be classified. I do not know whether or not it had a closed circulation. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 13:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Supposedly Ascat or oscat show a close circulation might be upgrade but it might not like 92L in 2010 which it wasn`t.Allanjeffs 00:56, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Dorian and Erin are out. Dorian's pressure was raised slightly to 1002 mbar, and Erin's winds were given a bump to 40 kts. The recent TCR releases increase Dorian's ACE to 2.5725, and Erin's to 1.545. Still pathetic, but not quite as much as initially thought. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
Chantal is out,she was the fastest moving tropical cyclone in the deep tropics with 28knots south of 20N since the satellite era her winds are up 65mph,and she had a minium pressure of 1003.4 are already out look like the poll for the last TCR will not be done this year.Allanjeffs 03:14, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
Allan, Chantal's winds were estimated at 65 mph operationally as well, so no change there. The pressure is a slight decrease from the operational estimate of 1005 mbar, though. With four out of eleven TCRs already out, I think we should bend the rules and open the TCR betting pool early this year. Anyone agree? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:20, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
Thanks Dylan sorry I am so overcharge with projects I didn`t even remember about her winds.Sorry.I agree do it before all is done.Allanjeffs 03:39, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
No worries. I'll ping Ryan about it now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:54, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
There is still a chance we could see a few more storms through the rest of October (3 more weeks, possibly a notable storm or two as well), but if we don't see much by the end of October, we can open the TCR predictions in the betting pools by November 1st, a month before what I said back in december 2011 with Washi. Ryan1000 17:24, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
Barry TCR is out.Not sure if they were any changes,but winds are the same.We need 7 more.Allanjeffs 20:21, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
Nothing's new with him, but we still might get a storm or two in October (still keeping a wary eye on 98L as it heads west). Again, if we get nothing big, we can start it by November, assuming we still have a few left by then. Ryan1000 22:06, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
(edit conflict) Allan, Barry's ACE has been raised from 0.565 to 0.7625. It is a small change, but still. Our ACE is now at 28.2175, which is still incredibly pathetic (as I described above three storms from the 2004 AHS alone generated a higher ACE than this entire season (Ivan, Frances, and Karl)!) AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:09, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
Don't really give one on the TCRs except Humberto. Just waiting if they will improve this swaggalicious storm. 0x40pxTWERK TEAM! 19:47, October 12, 2013 (UTC)
We have 6 out now (Fernand and Andrea new). Eh, I've changed my mind on the TCR's. Now that we have only 5 left, I think it would be best to begin it now. None of the reliable models show development in the next week, nor do conditions seem to favor it. We might still get one more storm, but I doubt we'll pull a Sandy this year. Ryan1000 19:46, October 15, 2013 (UTC)
Gabrielle is out,was a td in the Caribbean instead of a ts.Allanjeffs 20:35, November 4, 2013 (UTC)
WHEN'S HUMBERTO COMING I WANNA SEE IF HE WAS A CAT 2 WOOOOOOOO AND FUNNY THAT WE COULDA HAD A NAMED TD LOL It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 20:36, November 4, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Liz, Humberto's TCR will come out whenever the NHC finishes it. I am not sure if Humberto was a Category 2, but it would be awesome if he was. In reply to Allan's post, I am surprised Gabrielle was that weak during her first life. That is really going to drag her ACE down. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:54, November 4, 2013 (UTC)

Humberto might look like a cat 2 like Gabrielle looks a ts in the Caribbean and it wasn`t the same may apply to Humberto.Looks are not everything they might decieve,I forgot to say that Gabrielle peak intensity was up to 65mph and that if she was classified correctly this would have been Humberto and Humberto would had been Gabrielle.Allanjeffs 02:28, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
I did not realize that occurence. It looks like Gabrielle was actually our eighth tropical storm of the season. I can name instances where a tropical storm technically formed before another one (e.g. Ingrid forming before Humberto in 2007), but the first depression became a tropical storm after the second depression did. Has this ever happened before in any basin? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:56, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
(I got edit-conflicted with Andrew) I hope Humberto will be upgraded to a C2 post-season. It would be awesome if he was! Also, I can't believe how close Gabrielle came to hurricane intensity in her 2nd life, that it never actually became a TS in the Caribbean, and it was actually the 8th storm of the season. If Gabrielle never regenerated, then we would probably have the first named depression ever! At least it regenerated, or it would be one of the biggest name wastes/failures ever! —Steven09876 TalkContribs 03:03, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
LOL I don't really give one on TCRs unless Humberto is out lol. I want him to get to a C2 lol. I LIKE BRANDED APPLES!  POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 22:51, November 15, 2013 (UTC)
Still no new TCR's yet...sigh. Ryan1000 20:00, November 28, 2013 (UTC)
BOINGY BOINGY BOINGY BLEUEUEUERALGH!!! WE HAVE A NEW TCR!!! Prepare for Llamas. I meant Lamas. Yep, failed all right, OR DID HE!??!? READ THE BLOOMING REPORT FOR DETAILS! FUN FUN FUN FUN FUN “i liek turtlez 20:21, December 3, 2013 (UTC)
Challenge: Guess who's report this is BEFORE CLICKING THE LINK! “i liek turtlez 20:22, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Sigh...yep, Lorenzo is out. Nothing special. Ivo and Octave are out in EPac as well. Ryan1000 20:27, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Hey! I told you not to say who it was until you've opened the document! :p Lol, nvm XD BUT I WANT MOAR LLAMAS RAAAAARG “i liek turtlez 20:38, December 3, 2013 (UTC)
Humberto and Karen are released!--Isaac829E-Mail 22:46, January 8, 2014 (UTC)
So they finally released more TCR's, a few more came out in EPac as well. Ryan1000 13:57, January 9, 2014 (UTC)
So... here's the synposis!! :D
STAGE 1: Humberto released, party all night in the club. Everything's free.
STAGE 2: Henriette released, shut the club down and move to SoBe.
STAGE 3: Raymond released, invite the whole world to party with many cruise ships, foam parties, 18973 DJs and many more! WOOOO!!!!!!!!!!! WOOO!!!!!
“i liek turtlez 00:00, January 19, 2014 (UTC)
Humberto's pressure was lowered to 979 mbar and its winds were increased to 80 knots (90 mph). Nothing too special with Karen. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:01, January 24, 2014 (UTC)
It also looks like Humberto evolved into a subtropical cyclone, like Nadine from 2012. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:36, January 24, 2014 (UTC)
The invest of Decemeber was upgrade to sts like I thought it deserved.Allanjeffs 20:40, February 11, 2014 (UTC)
So we could've had Nestor...--Isaac829E-Mail 21:44, February 11, 2014 (UTC)
I name this storm Sharkiesha. FGS, WHY COULD YOU JUST NOT NAME THE BLOODY STORM? “i liek turtlez 19:46, February 12, 2014 (UTC)
Here is the TCR. The subtropical storm had a peak of 45 knots (50 mph)/997 mbar. I had a feeling about this storm. Liz, this storm was not named because the NHC did not operationally classify it. Also, this means 2013 is the first season in six years to produce a December storm! For a season that had only two hurricanes, that is impressive. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:59, February 13, 2014 (UTC)
I actually had a slight feeling that it would be upgraded, and it looks like it has! But at the same time, I'm kinda surprised this happened, since I rarely, if ever, see the NHC upgrade AOIs to a subtropical or tropical storm. Well, since that thing was upgraded, we have our first post-season storm since 2007 and our season tally was actually 15-14-2-0. I wish this would've been Nestor, had to be unnoticed at first, it just had to.... But, even though it would have been yet another fail, it still helped to bring our season's tally slightly up by 1 storm! Steve820 20:37, February 15, 2014 (UTC)
Thats an academy record
New post-season storm since 2007? That's an academy record, dude. “i liek turtlez 23:44, February 16, 2014 (UTC)
Final track maps are out.--Isaac829E-Mail 00:47, February 26, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance, part 2Edit

Well, since it is post-season, I think we should give a final call on our retirement numbers for this season:

  • Ingrid - 40%
  • Andrea - 0.5%
  • Barry and Fernand - 0.01%
  • All others - 0%

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:24, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

Well, for one of the least active years ever, here are Ryan Grand's retirement thoughts:

  • Andrea - 3% - Typical early-seasoner. Not happening.
  • Barry - 3% - Not like Mexico hasnt seen this before.
  • Chantal - 1% - For the death in DR. Otherwise, no.
  • Dorian - 0% - It tried and failed.
  • Erin - Fail% - You fail that much.
  • Fernand - 8% - More deadly than Barry, but still, this is Mexico we're talking about...
  • Gabrielle - 1% - Mostly minor impacts to the Virgins, PR, and Bermuda. Not happening.
  • Humberto - 0% - Became a hurricane. What else?
  • Ingrid - 60% - The only reasonable canidate this year, I don't think it will be retired since Mexico snubbed Alex and Karl of 2010, but still, if I had to retire 1 name this year, this would be it.
  • Jerry - -Fail% - You fail at failing. (no, that's not a double negative)
  • Karen - Doublefacepalm% - Are you trying to piss me off?
  • Lorenzo - +Fail% - Because he tested positive for fail.
  • Melissa - Non-tropical% - XD.

That sums it up. Ryan1000 18:46, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

But the good thing is... Humberto tested positive for swag. INNIT! Agreed with me, Ry? And yes Karen looks like she was REALLY getting on your nerves. hahahaha!!! “i liek turtlez 18:17, December 3, 2013 (UTC)
My bad. Fixed it. Ryan1000 20:28, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Here's mine:

  • Andrea: 4% - Minor impact, riled up the East Coast for a bit.
  • Barry: 5% - Impact-wise, this was just another Nate, if even that.
  • Chantal: 4% - One death and light damage. Not enough.
  • Dorian: 0% - Gets a gold star for effort, but no.
  • Erin: 0% - No, Erin, making rain does not earn you the boot.
  • Fernand: 10% - 14 fatalities, but considering they were in Mexico...
  • Gabrielle: 2% - Caused some flooding in the Virgin Islands but was mostly harmless otherwise.
  • Humberto: 0% - Gets the same admonition as Erin, but at least it became a hurricane, unlike some storms...
  • Ingrid: 55% - The $1.5 billion damage bill makes Ingrid the seventh-costliest tropical cyclone in Mexican history. Add in the 23 deaths and you have a reasonable retirement candidate... that probably won't get the boot if the Alex and Karl snubs are anything to judge by. Still, erring past the 50/50 mark because the impacts merit retirement.
  • Jerry: No% - Failed miserably.
  • Karen: Facepalm% - Failure level is over 9,000. Its afterlife was more eventful (it evolved into a minor coastal storm that inconvenienced the Carolinas for a few days), but that much is overshadowed by the sheer magnitude of Karen's suckage. It failed that badly.
  • Lorenzo: <1% - The remnants helped make the St. Jude storm even worse for Europe than it already would've been, but that won't cut it for retirement. See: the destructive flooding in Georgia caused by the remnants of Fred; the hit Europe took from post-tropical Katia (which wasn't even that bad by their standards); and the Halloween nor'easter that was fueled by the remnants of Rina.
  • Melissa: Meh% - Better than most of this year's storms, but that's not saying much.

I had more to say about Lorenzo than any other storm... that pretty much speaks for how lolworthy this season was. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:30, December 1, 2013 (UTC)


  • Ingird - 50% - The only storm worth retiring.
  • Others are 0%.

--Isaac829E-Mail 20:38, December 1, 2013 (UTC)

Here's mine:

  • Andrea - 4% - Brought plenty of rain to the southeast and the northeast, but retirement isn't happening.
  • Barry - 2% - Just a weak TS that impacted Mexico. No retirement here.
  • Chantal - 1% - It broke the record for the fastest-moving TC in the deep tropics ever, but it caused very little impact. Still, tack a "1%" for the death in the DR.
  • Dorian - 0% - It tried but failed.
  • Erin - -9,001% - EPIC FAIL!! 'nuff said
  • Fernand - 10% - 14 deaths, but since these deaths happened in Mexico...
  • Gabrielle - 1% - Caused a little bit of impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda, but retirement isn't happening.
  • Humberto - 0% - Became a hurricane and that's it.
  • Ingrid - 50% - The only storm worth retiring, but since Mexico snubbed Alex and Karl, I don't think it will be retired.
  • Jerry - EpicFail% - Lol, this really sucked.
  • Karen - -∞% - This puny little storm epically failed to infinite proportions. Congratulations. You're now #1 on the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing. :D
  • Lorenzo - -10,000% - You fail at failing. Lorenzo, along with Karen, Jerry, and Erin, gets the Certificate of Epically Failing to the ∞ Power. Congratulations guys. You all deserve a place in the Hurricane Hall of Fail.
  • Melissa - Meh% - It started out subtropical and became tropical, strengthened to become one of the strongest storms of this season, but it was still...meh.

Steven09876 TalkContribs 22:24, December 1, 2013 (UTC)


  • Andrea = Meh4% Caused too much hype in the Northeast.
  • Barry = Okay10%
  • Chantal = Meh5%
  • Dorian = Fail1%
  • Erin = -373% #EpicFail. Eaten by the Wonkey Donkey of Dry Air. Duh!!!!
  • Fernand = Barry% WELL DUH!!! 
  • Gabrielle = 5% Lolz. Really. 
  • Ingrid = 68% Look at what happened in Mexico! That and Manny = Costliest Acapulco hurricane disaster.
  • Jerry = LolEpicFail% Just as everyone was chanting "JERRY JERRY JERRY" you were all bark but no bite. WELL, DUH!!!!!!
  • Karen = -373737% Lol, prankster. Lol, you made everyone on MemeGenerator, 9gag, 4chan, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram scared. Nobody is impressed. 
  • Lorenzo = 10% This storm was no fail! He was friends with a monster! His name was, get ready... NA, NA NA NA NA NA!!! HEY JUDE!!! EVERYONE PUT YOUR HANDS IN THE AIR AND SING WITH ME! Considering what he did to us Brits, of course. I'M A CELEBRITY, GET ME OUT OF HERE!!!!
  • Melissa = 2%. Too cool but nah man. 

“i liek turtlez 18:13, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Replacement name ideasEdit

Now, let's seeeeeeee...... What super duper omgomgomgyaaaah replacement names can you suggest for INGRID?!? huh huh huh?!?! Considering what she and Manny did in Mexico?

Ianthe [4] Iberia [1] Ida [2] Idalia
Idelle [2] Idina Idona [6] Idra
Idris [2] Iduna [2] Ieesha [7] Ignacia [3]
Igrayne [2] Ila [4] Ilana [12] Ilaria
Ilene [5] Iliana [9] Ilima Ilka [2]
Ilona [9] Ilse [8] Ima Iman [2]
Imelda [4] Immaculada [4] Imogen [7] Imperia [2]
Ina [2] India [3] Indiana [1] Indigo
Indira [1] Indu Inez [7] Inga [8]
Ingrid [4] Innes Inocencia [5] Io [1]
Ioanna [5] Iola [1] Iolana [1] Iolanthe [9]
Iona Ione [2] Ionia [3] Iphigenia [7]
Irene [28] Iris [6] Irit Irma [6]
Irvette [5] Isabel [43] Isadora [2] Isaura [3]
Isha [3] Ishana [1] Ishara






Iuna? (Luna but spelt with an I)

“i liek turtlez 20:45, December 3, 2013 (UTC)

Iris, Isabel, Inez, and Ione are no-no's. Already used, already retired. Irma is Irene's replacement. Ida is already on the list, most recently used in 2009. Indiana is unlikely due to the U.S. State of that name, and Isadora, if you ask me, isn't an option due to Isidore, which was retired. If Ingrid is retired, I'd replace it with Indigo or Isa. Ryan1000 22:44, December 3, 2013 (UTC)
Isis is already use in the east pacific and Iliana and Iliona looks to much like Ileana also use in the Epac.Imogen don`t like it but sounds a name Australia would use not Mexico.The same goes for Isa and Indigo my favorites.I believe Isaura or Ilsa might be used as they are somewhat common in Mexico.Allanjeffs 03:50, December 4, 2013 (UTC)
I don't really think Ingrid will be retired, but if it is, my 5 picks are IlanaIuna, Ishana, Imani, and Indigo. I think 2013 will end up like 2006 and 2009 and have no names retired, especially because of how inactive this season was. —Steven09876 TalkContribs 03:51, December 5, 2013 (UTC)
I vote Ivy. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:23, December 5, 2013 (UTC)
I actually believe Ingrid might not be retired,but if they retired Manuel they may have a open heart and ask for Ingrid too but I doubt it not even sure if Manuel is going knowing Mexico he might very well stay,That is what happen with Karl in 2010.Allanjeffs 05:40, December 5, 2013 (UTC)
My picks are: Idra, Ignacia, Isa, Ima, Ira, Ina, Isha, Inga (wasn't retired in the past), Imelda. And for Manuel, Martin is my choice. By the way, maybe we should exclude Indira, India and Iberia. Iberia is the name of the peninsula where Spain and Portugal can be found, and Indira is the name for the late Indian leader who was assassinated decades ago. And of course, India is the name of a country in Asia. Immaculada is long for a storm name though. Idris is somehow similar to Iris and I think Idris is a male name. Ianthe is somehow Australian for me. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:31, December 25, 2013 (UTC)

Ingrid retiredEdit

And the curse for this naming list and the "I" names continues...Ingrid has been retired and will be replaced with Imelda for 2019. Manuel was also retired in the Pacific and it will be replaced with Mario for 2019. Manuel's retirement wasn't really a surprise to me, but Ingrid kinda was. If Alex and Karl of 2010 weren't retired for causing so much more damage and deaths than Ingrid in Mexico, why weren't they retired? Well, either way, it looks like Mexico has redeemed themselves after the epic snubs of 2010. Ryan1000 20:10, April 10, 2014 (UTC)

Yeah I am not sure why they didn't retired Karl and Alex was a toss up to be honest. Ingrid in my opinion shouldn't have been retired just Manuel but she is gone and replace with a very popular name in spanish the same for Manuel.Isaac would have been a better retire storm than Ingrid imho.Allanjeffs 22:22, April 10, 2014 (UTC)

Hell to the yeah! Both retirements are great news, especially Manuel; I don't know how I would've handled the news of a Manuel snub. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:10, April 11, 2014 (UTC)
BTW, here's my theory on why Ingrid was retired but Alex and Karl weren't: didn't it and Manuel contribute to a lot of the same impacts? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:12, April 11, 2014 (UTC)
Oh, and Ingrid is only the sixth Category 1 Atlantic retiree in history, after Agnes, Klaus, Cesar, Stan, and Noel. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:24, April 11, 2014 (UTC)
Maybe Ingrid was retired because both it and Manuel caused more problems for Mexico in general than Alex and Karl did. Those two struck Mexico months apart, Ingrid and Manuel laid siege to Mexico at the same time, and brought flooding rains to about 2/3's of the entire country. Sounds like a lot more problems than Alex and Karl could've done. Ryan1000 10:18, April 11, 2014 (UTC)
Wow, didn't really expect this to be retired, especially since this storm wasn't as bad as the Alex and Karl snubs. The reasons Ryan gave above has to be why Ingrid was retired. Imelda is a lovely name though. Steve820 23:35, April 12, 2014 (UTC)
I believe it was retired because they couldn't see which damage were made by Ingrid and which were by Manuel so at the end they decide to retire both. Imo Isaac should have been gone too then but anyways it happen and she is gone. btw Imelda was popular in Honduras before now not so much, might still be popular in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:05, April 13, 2014 (UTC)
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