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Current Systems: SUBTROPICAL STORM GUARÁ


This is the forum page for the 2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season.

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Forum archives: 1

South Pacific: Evan South Pacific Archive 1
Australia: Australian Region Archive 1 Australian Region Archive 2
South-West Indian Ocean: South-West Indian Ocean Archive 1 South-West Indian Ocean Archive 2
Other Basin Talkpages (2013): N. Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Hemisphere (2012-13), (2013-14) WAD

Betting poolsEdit

Finally made them. We don't have a first storm formation section though, because we made them too late. Anja already formed. =( Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

South-West Indian OceanEdit

24S.JAMALAEdit

Tropical Cyclone 24SEdit

Woah, this was unexpected. A second straight SWIO season with off-season activity? Wow. This could become Jamala later today or tomorrow, and it could later on possibly be a cat 1 or 2. Ryan1000 16:32, May 8, 2013 (UTC)

Yep, it's interesting we've had two straight off-season SWIO activity. System has nice batch of convection, and yeah, is expected to intensify into Jamala, and peak at 75 mph. Special thing about this system is that it may help propagate moisture eastward into the EPAC/ATL regions. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:47, May 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11Edit

And now it's a TD. Forecast to become Jamala soon. Ryan1000 04:17, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm JamalaEdit

Hello, (not so) gorgeous. Ryan1000 13:32, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Jamala is barely even a tropical storm. Anyway, this marks the second straight SWIO season with an off-season storm (and a season with both a pre-season and post-season storm!). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:50, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical Storm JamalaEdit

I knew I doubted the JTWC's initial forecast of it intensifying to reach cyclone strength. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:03, May 12, 2013 (UTC)

Australian RegionEdit

18U.ZANEEdit

Tropical Cyclone ZaneEdit

Last ditch effort for the Australian region. Heading towards Queensland, and could possibly be a cat 2 or 3 when it hits. Ryan1000 12:37, April 30, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone ZaneEdit

Died before it even made landfall. Only peaked as a C1. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)

South Pacific BasinEdit

10F.NONAMEEdit

Tropical Disturbance 10FEdit

And we have got the tenth disturbance of the 2012-13 South Pacific cyclone season. Tropical Cyclone Haley, anyone? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

It's slightly stronger (the pressure has dropped a bit from 1002 mbar to 1001 mbar). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

I don't expect much out of either this or the other disturbance for the time being. Maybe become Haley, but nothing else. Ryan1000 21:54, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

11F.NONAMEEdit

Tropical Disturbacne 11FEdit

Yes, we have got yet another one. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Long dead, as with 10F. Oh and BTW, Oswald could've caused 126 million in AUS damage, so he might not be so negligible after all... Ryan1000 17:14, February 1, 2013 (UTC)

14F.HALEYEdit

Tropical Depression 14FEdit

We never mentioned the past 2 depressions (not like they did much anyway), but this one actually looks pretty good. Might become Haley. Ryan1000 16:48, February 9, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone HaleyEdit

Now Haley.Isaac829E-Mail 04:02, February 10, 2013 (UTC)

Dying down... Ryan1000 14:33, February 11, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone HaleyEdit

And out. Ryan1000 14:52, February 12, 2013 (UTC)

FarewellEdit

And the 2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season has finally ceased to be. We had an average number of storms this year, with a total of:

  • 26 Named Tropical Cyclones
  • 15 storms that became category 1 or stronger (on the SSHS)
  • 8 major cyclones (cat 3 or higher on SSHS)
  • No cat 5's
  • Roughly 2.7 billion in damage
  • 70-86 deaths

This year was fairly notable, with lots of damage caused by Cyclones Evan, Oswald, Rusty, and Haruna.  Oswald became one of Australia's costliest storms in history, Haruna hit an area in Madagascar that rarely sees landfalling cyclones, Rusty was about (or more) severe than Lua from last year, and Evan wrecked Fiji and also caused great damage in the Samoas. While it's not the worst SHem season in history, it's certainly going to be remembered for a long time to come. EPac begins two weeks from now and ATL in one month. Ryan1000 12:31, April 30, 2013 (UTC)

This year was pretty good. All basins had activity, at least.Isaac829E-Mail 19:50, May 13, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glanceEdit

This may be a bit too early, but Evan does have a reasonable chance of retirement. Here are my retirement candidates (remember, SWIO storms are NOT retired):

AUS:

  1. Mitchell - 0% - Mitchell was such a short-lived, weak, harmless storm there is pretty much no chance of retirement, even by Australian region standards.
  2. Narelle - 5% - Narelle did bring some wave action to Northwest Australia, but I still doubt it will get retired.
  3. Oswald - 70% - Oswald did contribute to a major flood event, so there iss a poosible chance of it going.
  4. Peta - 1% - A debatable waste of a name, and it did not cause a lot of damage.
  5. Rusty - 60% - Damage should be great enough for Australia to prompt a retirement.

SPAC:

  1. Evan - 90% - Because the SPac is extremely slacky at retirement standards, Evan is most likely going, especially if it caused over $100 million (2013 USD) in damage.
  2. Freda - 30% - Well, it did affect some SPac islands, but the damage was not too bad.
  3. Garry - 10% - It did not turn out to be that bad in the end.
  4. Haley - 5% - Haley did not seriously impact land, and the fact it did not reach severe tropical cyclone intensity (AUS scale) does not help its chances.

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

I normally would discourage making this section so early, but since Evan has a reasonable chance of being retired, I wouldn't be bad with it now. I think he will be retired...The SPac and AUS region have amongst the lowest retirement standards of any basin that retires names. The lowest ever for any place is the EPac, since Mexico rarely retires names and hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii. Ryan1000 14:51, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

He is almost 90% gone in my opinion. they even retire storms that only make 1 million dollar in damage.Allanjeffs 18:32, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

AUS:

  • Mitchell - 0% - Fail.
  • Narelle - 40% - It killed 14 people.
  • Oswald - 60% - Tons of damage.
  • Peta - 30% - It caused flooding, that's pretty much it.
  • Rusty - 40% - It could be retired.
  • Sandra - 15% - It did cause rain.
  • Tim - <5% - See Mitchell.

SPAC:

  • Evan - 70% - Tons of damage.
  • Freda - 10% - Meh, not much.
  • Garry - 0% - No.
  • Haley - 0% - See Garry.

Isaac829E-Mail 21:37, March 23, 2013 (UTC)

Mine:

AUS:

  • Mitchell: 0% Mitchell dissipated far from land.....

SPAC:

  • Evan: 80% or more, Evan is most likely being retired...
  • Freda: TBA - Still active

STO12 (talk) 03:29, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan Grand has spoken:

Australia:

  • Mitchell - 0% - Australia may have the most generous track record of retiring names, but even they'd know better than to retire this pathetic storm.
  • Narelle 38% - Fairly powerful and delivered some rain and winds to the northwest Australian coast, but fortunately damage wasn't that bad. Indonesia might request retirement from this, but not even the precursor damage and deaths there were that much.
  • Oswald - 98% - At least 4 people were killed from Oswald and flood damage in Queensland totaled to nearly 2.4 billion AUS dollars. That ranks him behind Tracy and Yasi as Australia's 3rd costliest TC in history. All of those facts sum up to one thing - goodbye Oswald.
  • Peta - 5% - Small and weak storm, brought some flooding and washed out a few roads, but still, doubt it...
  • Rusty - >70% - Australia retires just about anything sizeable that hits them; this should be no exception.
  • Sandra - <10% - Probrably not.
  • Tim - ~0% - Even Australia would know better than to retire this failure of a storm.
  • Victoria - <5% - Didn't do much.
  • Zane - ~0% - Barely touched Queensland; no known deaths or noticeable damage.

South Pacific:

  • Evan - 100% - This might seem too generous, but 161 million dollars in damage ranks Evan one of the top 10 costliest South Pacific cyclones on record, and it was also described as the worst cyclone in Fiji's history. If they retired countless past storms with near-negligible damage, there's no excuse on Evan.
  • Freda - 15% - A threatening storm, but was much less severe than Evan.
  • Garry - 10% - Probrably not.
  • Haley - <5% - Doubt it.

Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2013 (UTC)


South Pacific

  • Evan 98% I will be stunned if it stays. they retire almost any if not all that affect land and cause little damage there is no excuse for this one to stay. case close

Freda% 5 not affect land 

Garry 4% nothing special.

Australia

Mitchelle 10% you never know with Australia.

Narelle 55% Don`t lknow if Indonesia where Narelle kill 19 retire like Australia or are more conservative but if they do these percentage may be too low or too much.

Oswald 80 damage in Australia was extensive so its like a go go to me even though most of it was as a low or remanent anyway he us out.

Allanjeffs 03:31, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

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