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2011 Pacific hurricane season

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This is the forum page for the 2011 Pacific hurricane season.

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Forum archives: 1

Monthly Archives: Pre-Season-May June July August September October November
Storm Event Archives: Adrian Beatriz Dora Eugene Kenneth
Other Basin Talkpages (2011): ATL EPAC WPAC NIO SHEM WAD

GalleryEdit

Yup. A gallery is here.






WelcomeEdit

Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the Betting pools are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone 00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

FarewellEdit

The season is about done. We had:

  • 13 depressions
  • 11 storms
  • 10 hurricanes
  • 6 major hurricanes

The ACE is (belive it or not) only near normal. Any thoughts?Cyclone10Contributions 21:23, November 26, 2011 (UTC)

This year's EPac season was absolutely incredible. I cannot believe what happened this season. We had a record similar to 2008 with one MH in every month of the season except the first one, and we also set a record in terms of storm strength as well. We had a knot per storm average of 100.45 in this year's EPac season, which is the all-time record for this basin. The first 5 storms of this season became hurricanes. That's also a unique record that 1971 formerly held with the first 4 storms becoming hurricanes that year. We had close to the number of named storms predicted(NOAA's average was 12), but the strengths of the storms was rather high for a season with this many storms. We ended up with 10 hurricanes, but NOAA only forecasted 5-8 in the entire season. They only called for a total of 1-3 major hurricanes, but we ended with 6, 5 of which were C4 strength. They were okay in forecasing numbers, but were way off in terms of storm strength. The overall ACE might have been near-normal or a tad above(certainly more than 2009's 100, which was also near-normal and in an El Nino season), but for a season with 11 named storms, an ACE of 120(possible post-season adjustments) averages to an ACE/storm of 10.9. That's amazing. Only one named storm, Tropical Storm Fernanda, didn't become a hurricane this season. No EPac season ever before has had so few named storms not reach hurricane strength. 1990 had 5 named storms not become hurricanes. And this is a non-El Nino season as it is. Some of this was unexpected, but most of it to me was just amazing sh!t to see. I have to acknowledge this season to a great extent, and in terms of meteorological aspects, this season definitely has a spot in the hall of fame. Not in terms of how high it was overall, but how high it was with so few named storms. Ryan1000 23:21, November 26, 2011 (UTC)

Same here, 2011, IMO, will be remembered as a once-in-a-lifetime season. I will never forget the rareness of Kenneth, the surprises of Adrian and Eugene, etc... Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 13:20, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

Today's the last day for EPAC, and CPAC. I doubt anything will form in December.Cyclone10Contributions 20:53, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

In terms of ACE, you were wrong, Cyclone10. Per the NHC's November summary, our ACE was 120% of normal in EPac. What did I tell you? Am I good, or am I just that good? I nailed the ACE prediction I made in EPac in my blog post earlier. Atlantic ACE was above average, but if you consider the number of named storms, ATL wasn't impressive ACEwise. EPac was incredible. NOAA only said a 5% chance of an above average season and what do you know? Above-average season. Ryan1000 16:37, December 1, 2011 (UTC)

I guess you're right, and I learn that it doesnt take much storms to make a above average season.Cyclone10Contributions 01:48, December 2, 2011 (UTC)
You can base your forecasts off of what you know from forecasting, but the greatest thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. Sometimes predicting what's not expected is what you'll see in the season. I was pretty close in the Atlantic in my blog post, but I was off a little bit. We ended with a total of 19 storms, but I forecasted 21. We ended with 7 hurricanes, which was right what we got. We got 3 major hurricanes, while I forecasted 4 majors, but my prediction may be correct if Rina is upgraded in post-season. Lastly, we had no C5 hurricanes, while I forecasted one, and it's highly unlikely we will have any of the season's storms be upgraded to C5's in post-season. I mentioned earlier Dora could have done it, but it didn't. In EPac, I forecasted 11 named storms, which is what we got, but I was off by two hurricanes and major hurricanes. I don't think next year will be as hyper as this year's EPac season was; 2011 was a once-in a lifetime season. We will likely never get an EPac season ever again with so many hurricanes and major hurricanes out of so few named storms. The Atlantic had a 2007-like season this year in terms of storm numbers, but it was just a little more active and ACE was better. Ryan1000 02:44, December 2, 2011 (UTC

Post-season changesEdit

Does anyone have speculations on post-season changes? Adrian and Beatriz are done. I think Dora could have briefly been a C5 storm. Ryan1000 20:51, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Nope.10Q.INVEST 22:13, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

TD 8 is done, no changes.10Q.INVEST 02:25, November 2, 2011 (UTC)

Can I see a link to where I can see all post-season chages in both the atlantic and pacific. HurricaneOwen99 01:34, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

The Atlantic and the Pacific 10Q.INVEST 12:10, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

Dora's peak intensity from the TCR is 929 mb, 135 kts. Hurricane Kiewii 23:37, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

Calvin's finished.Cyclone10TalkContributions 22:03, November 15, 2011 (UTC)

Greg is finished.--Cyclone10 21:55, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

12-E is out, no changes.--Cyclone10 00:01, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Jova will probrably be the last one out the door, everyone else will probrably be faster to come. Ryan1000 20:48, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Irwin is now a category 2 hurricane, and honestly, if it wasn't for Jova it probably would've followed the path of most other EPac hurricanes, become a MH. Yqt1001 20:20, January 13, 2012 (UTC)
He would've been if Jova was a little smaller, then the shear would have had less effect. Ryan1000 03:40, January 14, 2012 (UTC)
Hilary's done....peaked at 125 knts.--Cy10 20:58, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
And you lose in EPac betting pools. :P Ryan1000 14:49, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
He could still win in the Atlantic though.Allanjeffs 16:01, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
Not anymore he can't. Ryan1000 00:49, January 25, 2012 (UTC)
Yeah its true he lost in both basins sadly I really think that Kenneth will be the last report of the season in this basin.Allanjeffs 02:37, January 25, 2012 (UTC)
Same thing here. I doubt Jova is going to be last.--Cy10-- 02:50, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


Don't speak too soon on that, like I did with Maria. I think Jova will likely come out last because Kenneth and Fernanda never affected land. Jova's damage figure by NHC will tack on time needed to complete it. Ryan1000 13:31, January 26, 2012 (UTC)
Same thing you said for Irene.....--Cy10-- 13:14, January 27, 2012 (UTC)
We'll have to wait and see. Irene took shorter than I thought, but I still think Jova will take longer than Irene did and be last here. Still, you don't want to say Jova won't be last without knowing anything about it. No one thought Rina's would come out last(in the betting pools, at least) and look what happened. After the TCR's come out, we have another month or two until the RA IV meeting takes place in April and the next ESCAP/WMO typhoon committee(when they retire pacific typhoon names) will take place next month from March 5-8. For all we know, Fernanda could be last TCR issued here, and we could have no winner here as well. Ryan1000 19:52, January 28, 2012 (UTC)
Or the other way for no winner. All 3 TCRs came out at the same time.--Cy10-- 01:06, February 7, 2012 (UTC)
Looks like Fernanda was upgraded to a 70 mph tropical storm. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 02:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC)
Yeah I asked the NHC yesterday and thety told me that they were going to release them today. Allanjeffs 04:21, February 7, 2012 (UTC)
No, Jova's did come out last. Sorry, Cyclone10 and Allan, but you spoke too soon. Double check the TCR's just a bit more carefully. Kenneth's TCR was really released January 14, Fernanda's TCR came out February 3, and Jova's came out February 6. Jova really was our winner. The NHC just didn't update their website until today, but they really came out earlier, so Jova is the official winner. Sorry =( Ryan1000 23:31, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance, part 2Edit

We need a revision:

  • Gone - None.
  • Might be gone - Jova, Beatriz, and Hilary
  • Not going - The rest

--Cyclone10Contributions 22:47, December 21, 2011 (UTC)

Well, if I did this in ATL, I might as well do it here too.

  • Adrian - 0% - Nothing worthy of retirement.
  • Beatriz - 5% - Some impacts in Mexico, but nothing severe.
  • Calvin - 0% - It became a hurricane, but nothing else.
  • Dora - 0% - Again, no.
  • Eugene - 0% - Unexpected C4, but still no retirement.
  • Fernanda - 0% - Only non-hurricane of 2011 PHS, but no, it won't be retired.
  • Greg - 0% - Nope.
  • Hilary - 0% - There was no real impact in Mexico, just some rain and rough waves.
  • Irwin - 0% - A long-lived EPac hurricane, but it still won't be retired.
  • Jova - 30% - Reasonable damage and deaths, but it's still not in favor of retirement.
  • Kenneth - 0% - A late-season surprise, but it still didn't affect land.

Ryan1000 13:51, December 23, 2011 (UTC)

Here is mine:

  • Adrian - 0% - It hit C4 status, and was annular, but neither earns retirement.
  • Beatriz - 1% - Extremely unlikely for retirement because only 4 deaths and minor damage was caused.
  • Calvin - 0% - Nothing special about him.
  • Dora - 0% - Reached 155 mph, RIed, and RWed, but that doesn't earn retirement.
  • Eugene - 0% - See Adrian's sections.
  • Fernanda - 0% - See Calvin's sections.
  • Greg - 0% - See Calvin and Fernanda's section.
  • Hilary - 0% - The impact in Mexico clearly won't earn retirement.
  • Jova - 40% - $213 million was caused, so don't be surprised if Jova goes.
  • Kenneth - 0% - Hit C4 status in November, but that doesn't earn retirement.

Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 14:49, December 27, 2011 (UTC)


No storms were retired and Jova staysEdit

Tada! No storm names retired and Jova says that she is staying for 2017! How does that feel? Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala

Quite good! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:49, June 13, 2012 (UTC)

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