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This is the forum page for the 2010 Pacific hurricane season.

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Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives:

Monthly Archives: Pre-Season-May, June, July, August, September

Storm Event Archives:

Other Basin Talkpages (2010): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


September[]

97E.INVEST[]

AoI:South of Oaxaca[]

NHC's got a new blob at 10% risk. Not supposed to move much for a bit... a couple models have Howard popping up from this. --Patteroast 19:17, September 22, 2010 (UTC)

97E.INVEST[]

Still at 10%, but invest'd now. --Patteroast 03:13, September 23, 2010 (UTC)

EPAC may be starting up again. I think I can see an Isis wave. Plus the one wave in the ATL that is east of Panama/Costa Rica. atomic7732 03:24, September 23, 2010 (UTC)
STILL AT 10%! And it looks awesome! This makes zero sense! YE Tropical Cyclone 13:40, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
Ahh, but young'n, convection is the key to sense. :P atomic7732 14:29, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
I think it got up to medium risk for a while, but it's at near 0% now. --Patteroast 00:18, September 28, 2010 (UTC)
Back up to 10%. --Patteroast 21:04, September 28, 2010 (UTC)
Finally off NHC... although still on NRL. --Patteroast 21:42, September 29, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:170 Degrees W[]

New on CPHC. This and 97C are twin blobs over in CPac... both at 20% risk, and both in unfavorable conditions to develop. --Patteroast 21:26, September 23, 2010 (UTC)

Near 0% now. Oh well. --Patteroast 02:41, September 24, 2010 (UTC)

October[]

98E.INVEST[]

AoI:South of Baja at 10 N[]

Hey! Not a terribly exciting blob, but anything at all is a surprise after how dead the EPac's been! NHC has this at 20% risk. --Patteroast 12:29, October 7, 2010 (UTC)

98E.INVEST[]

Invest'd! Still at 20%, though. --Patteroast 19:52, October 7, 2010 (UTC)

And gone from NHC. Sigh. --Patteroast 03:07, October 9, 2010 (UTC)

November[]

99E.INVEST[]

I just noticed that there was an invest in the EPac, but as soon as I actually paid it any attention, I realized it was already pretty much gone. At near 0% from NHC. --Patteroast 06:22, November 18, 2010 (UTC)

Eh, the entire northern hemisphere has pretty much shut down. We have 9 days until the official end of 2010 AHS and PHS, and 40 more days until we can call the official year of 2010 a season. Farewell until next year, everyone! Unless, by chance, we get a post-season surprise on our hands, or some southern-hemisphere starters. Ryan1000 23:42, November 21, 2010 (UTC)

December[]

01C.OMEKA[]

98C.INVEST[]

What the crap? There's a new invest out there! Granted, it's only at 10% risk, CPHC says it's subtropical, and it's right on the date line, but regardless I have to say I was rather surprised. --Patteroast 17:42, December 18, 2010 (UTC)

Whoa whoa WHOA. Suddenly it's at 90% risk. It's sitting right on the date line, so if it gets named it might be in the WPac, but the models predict that it's going to turn around and come back to the CPac. I was amazed at there even being an invest out there, but this? The satellite of it looks nuts. It looks like it already has a freakin' eye! --Patteroast 08:16, December 19, 2010 (UTC)

I don't think it looks organized now, but there is another area of disturbed weather south of Mexico right now, and if that thing becomes Howard, or the dateline invest becomes Omeka, I will just scream. This isn't what I was looking for in the EPac; I thought 2010 was long done. If this thing develops, I stand corrected. Ryan1000 16:42, December 19, 2010 (UTC)

UPDATE: I stand corrected. The JMA now has officially declared this storm a tropical depression. If it turns back, 1977 might not be "Beaten" after all, but rather tied. Even so, we will still have the lowest no. of hurricanes, assuming this storm doesn't become one. Ryan1000 16:49, December 19, 2010 (UTC)
Woah! I knew 2010 was not done. I KNEW IT! We though it was the earliest finish, but we might have the latest. WTf. Crazy EPAC year. I am sure Darren is crying right now. YE Tropical Cyclone 19:55, December 19, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Omeka[]

Up on RBT. YE Tropical Cyclone

Up on NRL now. YE Tropical Cyclone
OH. MY. The darn thing's spinning, and the CPHC is going to issue advisories for OMEKA!!! WHAT?!? I can't believe we're looking at the earliest end of a EPac season since reliable records began being traded in for a record LATEST. Jake52 08:14, December 20, 2010 (UTC)

What the hell? Are you kidding me? Last I checked, this season was all wraped up, just about to end, and all of a sudden we have Omeka? Holy Crap! Well, i'm not sure if this thing will become a "monster" storm and cause lots of damage, but Hawaii may need to watch out for potential flooding. And even with Omeka, 2010 is still the least active season ever, but rather than beating '77, we're tying '77. What a storm. Amazing. Ryan1000 11:40, December 20, 2010 (UTC)

THIS IS INSANE. WHAT WERE THE ODDS THAT AN OFF-SEASON STORM FORMS IN THE LEAST ACTIVE SEASON ON RECORD. THIS IS THE THIRD BIGGEST SURPRISE IN EPAC HISTORY AND THIS STORM IS JUST ABOUT AS EPIC IT GETS. YE Tropical Cyclone 15:37, December 20, 2010 (UTC)

If this thing's the third biggest surprise, then what's second and first? The 1975 hurricane? Ekeka in 1992? It may have developed well Post-the season and left 1979 still as the most recent season without CPac storms, but we still are the least active season in history, tying 1977 for named storms and beating them for hurricanes. And Jake, a storm in 1904 lasted until December 23, so unless Omeka can get past that date, we haven't had the record-latest end, unless you're only refering to the 1949-now reliable record best track data. Ryan1000 20:38, December 20, 2010 (UTC)

So Omeka might spin around for a couple days before dissipating... what I'm really interested in now is when the TCR for it comes out... either they need to up the intensity early on when it had an eye, or have a damn good explanation for why a weak system looked like a major hurricane. --Patteroast 14:02, December 21, 2010 (UTC)
... I just noticed that around the time I posted that, the final advisory was issued. Still, that was a fun diversion. :D --Patteroast 22:48, December 21, 2010 (UTC)

<I'm not really ready to say it's ended. It's still generating cloudiness near the center, so I'm a little baffled why it's an extratropical gale low now. (And Ryan, I do mean the 1949-Now record.) Jake52 22:56, December 21, 2010 (UTC)

The first and second biggest surprise where Ekeka and Hail in 1992. YE Tropical Cyclone 23:55, December 21, 2010 (UTC)
Many storms may have looked well-organized before they formed, but that doesn't mean they were once undiscovered major hurricanes(Grace of last year, to a lesser extent). Even so, this storm is gone now and it's not coming back. However, It certainly has made history in the past few days... I highly doubt the TCR will upgrade it to a MH, but it could be found to be a hurricane in post-analysis. Also, I think the 1975 Hurricane was more notable than Hali, because it is like the EPac's version of Faith in 1966(see my talk page; Eric said Faith was his favorite "freak occurance"). IMO, the 1975 storm was more surprising than Hali. A storm that almost hit British Columbia and Alaska is probrably more notable than a March tropical storm. Anyways, I'm done now. Ryan1000 01:44, December 22, 2010 (UTC)

Farewell[]

This season's done. I made this same section on the Atlantic forum, If you wish to see it there. Ryan1000 01:57, December 1, 2010 (UTC)

Haha. We got Omeka on RBT. YE Tropical Cyclone

Big whoop. I may be surprised to see Omeka come here onto us, but it's long from being notable outside of it's rare formation and timing(retirement status). I don't think Darren23 is crying right now, but he sure is surprised, i'd guess... Ryan1000 20:41, December 20, 2010 (UTC)

Now, its over. YE Tropical Cyclone 23:57, December 21, 2010 (UTC)

It officially ended now, but anyways, last year, although gone, will not be forgotten for a long time to come. Ryan1000 16:31, January 2, 2011 (UTC)

Hybrid/sutropical low off California? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-rgb.html atomic7732 13:36, January 4, 2011 (UTC)

Omeka TCR is out.Cyclone10E-Mail 19:02, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

Oh wow that is one late TCR. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:58, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance[]

Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 98.206.70.2 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC)

It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC)

Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me.98.206.70.2 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC)

It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC)

Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with Iwa), were all retired for unknown causes. Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha is not a Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and a less destructive Pacific example, 2008's Alma. 98.206.70.2 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC)

Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
I think Agatha will be retired. YE 00:27, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
Here is my predictions

Agatha 86% what in the check happened here, the forth deadly storms in Guatemala history, for such a weak storm it killed 199 people

Blas 1% fishspinner

Celia 28% Cat 5, minor damage, Ioke got retired, should not be on the list in the first place.

Darby 3% probably not

YE 13:23, August 7, 2010 (UTC)

Mine: (I'm the 98 guy just above, but with a username now)

  • Agatha - 95-100% - Being the 4th costliest, 6 or 5th deadliest in the East Pacific's history, as well as one of Guatemala's worst disasters in history, I cannot see why Agatha won't be retired.
  • Blas - 0% - Failed.
  • Celia - 0% - A very rare June category 5, but a fishspinning one at that.
  • Darby - 1% - It's remnants caused some flooding in southern Mexico, but it's just not gonna happen.
  • Estelle - 0% - See Blas.
  • Frank - 2% - With only 14 million and 6 deaths, it's not even close to earning retirement.
  • Georgette - 2% - It caused some impact on southern Baja, but just like Darby, it won't happen.

Ryan1000 02:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

So far, these are my predictions:

  • Agatha: 68% - I think it should be retired, but, well, EPAC retirements are unpredictable. $1 Billion and a load of deaths, for me, that's retirable.
  • Blas: 0% - *yawn*
  • Celia : 0% - Although a very rare June Cat 5, it is a fish in my book, well, although it hit some islands people have almost never heard of. In fact, I'll put Celia on my Hurricane Hall of Fail for its rapid weakening.
  • Darby: 0% - Other than being the earliest 2nd major hurricane, what did it do?
  • Estelle: 0% - See Blas
  • Frank: 35% - Notable damage, however, will it be enough to be retired? Maybe not.

Darren23Edits|Mail 02:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

Celia is not an epic fail. It was suppost to weaken rapidly. Darren, you might wonna learn the definition of an epic fail. Colin is an example of one so is Bonnie.YE 04:01, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
Not "epic", but a fail nonetheless IMO. Darren23Edits|Mail 04:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
I give Frank a 3% chance of retirement. YE Tropical Cyclone 20:28, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
Hmm... Agatha is the main storm this year that grabs my attention. Does anyone else have gusses on Agatha? To tell the truth, I think everyone on the Wikia thinks Agatha has a decent shot of being retired, but I don't know what everyone's specific numbers are on it. I mean, only 4 people have said what they think Agatha has for retirement thus far. Is there anyone else who wants to put their numbers down? Or does no one else really care about it? Ryan1000 17:44, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
I now raise Frank chances to 28%. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:40, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

IMO:

  • Agatha: 100% - no duh
  • Blas: 0% - BOO
  • Celia: 1% - meh, it might have been a Cat. 5 but it was a harmless one
  • Darby: 0% - all it did was spin fish in circles
  • Estelle: 0% - BOO
  • Frank: 40% - like Ryan said, EPAC retirements are random (retiring a pathetic storm like Knut while letting a comparative monster like Norbert escape that fate is an epic fail on WMO's part), but 136 deaths and $500 million certainly means there's a chance
  • Georgette: 2% - made landfall but its effects were kinda pathetic, especially compared to Agatha and Frank

I think we're on track to the least active EPAC season on record as far as named storms go, but it'll probably be one of the most destructive in a long time. --HurricaneMaker99 21:17, October 31, 2010 (UTC)

Well, I can't be really certain on Frank... That storm did cause a lot of impact, but Frank's deaths were caused by his precursor wave(with help from 8-e!) The damage was extensive, too, but it didn't directly affect land while causing that damage. Therefore, I personally don't believe it will happen, but if the WMO snubbes Agatha, I will be really pissed at them. In terms of number of named storms and hurricanes, 2010 will be the least active Pacific hurricane season on record, but by means of impact and notability, it will be very hard to forget this year for a long time to come. Ryan1000 03:22, November 2, 2010 (UTC)
Does anyone want to change their predictions on Frank? It was recently found to only do 14 million and 6 deaths. I changed mine most recently, but everyone else's 40% isn't looking so good now IMO. Ryan1000 22:04, November 30, 2010 (UTC)
Eh, it appears everyone has abandoned this forum from what i'm seeing. It had the longest "retirements at a glance" section i've ever seen from a Pacific hurricane forum, but after November was gone, all of us were gone from this forum. Long live the year of 2010. Ryan1000 22:42, December 14, 2010 (UTC)

Oops, forgot here:

  • Agatha: 100%. There's simply no reason for this name to stick around.
  • Blas: 0%. Blah Blah Blas.
  • Celia: 1%. It was strong, but strength does not grant retirement, otherwise Rick would be gone with Linda.
  • Darby: 0% It set a record...that's it.
  • Estelle: 0%. It...didn't set a record.
  • Frank: 20%. I won't discount what its predecessor did, but the chances are not good.
  • Georgette: 5%. It hit and did virtually nothing.

Gone: Agatha. Staying: Everyone else. Jake52 06:06, December 15, 2010 (UTC)

Now only Eric(Sky Fury) and Atomic7732 haven't made their calls on this season's retirements(as of what I've seen)but they are most likely going to be like what everyone else said: Agatha. That's it. Everyone else, no. I am surprised as to how such a quiet season can be such a bad season... 1996 is another such example. Oh well. Guess there's nothing else for me to do now... Ryan1000 21:37, December 15, 2010 (UTC)

If TD 11-E had formed into a tropical storm, would it have had a chance for retirement? 124.51.198.84 07:34, March 2, 2011 (UTC)

Most likely, but that hadn't happened, and because it wasn't, it appears Agatha is our only true shoe in for that this year. It will most likely be announced as retired by tomorrow or this Friday or Saturday, but I don't really know when... Anyhow, it looks like 2010 will be abandoned forever now... Ryan1000 10:32, March 9, 2011 (UTC)

Mid-season Predictions[]

What are you mid-season predictions. I think we will end up being 10-6-5. YE 04:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC)

Only 10 storms? I say 19 storms, 10 of which become hurricanes, and 3 become major. Atomic7732 17:12, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
It almost the peak of hurricane season BTW. Remember last year we had 20 storms in a strong El Nino. We are in a La Nina. YE 14:55, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
No way! I thought they both were supposed to just start up right now! Storm after storm after storm! The trends look like that for the Atlantic at least. Atomic7732 16:57, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
You may never know, thats what happen last year. YE 18:42, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
I can't say for sure; I still remember at about this time last year about the talk I had with SkyFury (I'm also "76") about the deadened basins worldwide. Like what I said last year, that active hot streak that started in 1995 is probrably closing up. The Atlantic has had nothing since Alex. The East Pacific had the highest June ACE on record, only to fall just as drastically last month to be the first time since 1966 when July was completely dead there. And the West Pacific? Like, are you kidding me? 3 JMA named storms as of now? And I thought 2009 was quiet enough. I think the final stats for the Atlantic will be 5-12 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors. In the East Pacific, I think it'll be 8-13 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors(with at least Agatha being retired). And the West Pacific, if they keep up on their dead streak, are probrably gonna get 14-21 storms, 7-11 typhoons, and 4-6 reaching category 3 or higher. I think we are in a 1977 period now, and it will remain that way for the next year or so. Then, the Pacific will go on a BIG hot streak for about two more decades or so, and the cycle goes on. Outside of the occasional ENSO event in the Pacific (1997/2006), everything has been quiet here. 98.206.70.2 03:52, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
Um, actually, ATL was pretty average to slightly above, so by no means (this is La Nina, its expected) that ATL is dead, and by no means are we gonna see a 77 repeat. The EPAC spree was just an early season anomaly, probably getting some optimal environmental conditions (IIRC, Upward MJO). My predictions for EPAC are a 2007-type season, and I think it is possible for ATL to get to 15+ considering that it is La Nina. My predictions for WPAC are about at <25 storms.Darren23Edits|Mail 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
After some thought, I'll revise my prediction to, 14 storms (counting TD's), 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Atomic7732 04:23, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
It will be intresting, but remember after July the basins woke up especially the EPAC and then the WPAC. You many never know. I agree the activity cyclone is almsot ending. This is going to be our last La Nina starting 2012 expect a storm El Nino an the EPAC to have 25 named storms or so. The ALT season will turn dead, WPAC will get a little more active. YE 12:53, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
YE, I think the active years should go on for a bit more time than you think. Maybe appx 5-10 years due to Global Warming, and I predict we should see about a few more La Nina episodes.Darren23Edits|Mail 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
I personally dont believe in global Warming/Climate Change. But again only time will tell. YE 14:24, August 5, 2010 (UTC)

Late season predictions[]

We are a midst into the year. What are your guys predictions? I say 12-6-4. YE Tropical Cyclone 23:02, September 4, 2010 (UTC)

I'm lowering my August one and I'm at 11-4-3 with an ACE 45-75% of average, and my confidence is medium-high. Darren23Edits|Mail 23:08, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
12-4-2. One more cane. atomic7732 23:16, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
I say it's too soon to tell; I don't think September will have much more, but October... We must wait. I can't tell anything as of now. Ryan1000 15:54, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
What about now? YE Tropical Cyclone 14:13, October 8, 2010 (UTC)
The EPac is so dead right now we probrably won't get any storms in October... And Darren, as I mentioned earlier, it is not at all impossible that we could be less active(or as active) than 1977. We're currently at 7-3-2. The Eastern Pacific still looks like a winter wasteland right now and October is half over. If this inactivity continues for just 6 more weeks, we will have the least active season on record in terms of number of named storms and hurricanes, but not major hurricanes or ACE. I highly doubt we will have just one more storm to get to 1977's record low mark as of now, and based on the conditions in the EPac, I say this with 90-100% certainty. However, the effects felt on land from the 2010 Pacific hurricane season will not be long forgotten. Agatha, Frank and 8-E's precursor waves, and 11-E combined wrought over 2 billion in damages and over 560 deaths. This season was costlier and deadlier than every other Pacific hurricane season thus far in the 21st century combined, and specifically was the costliest season since 1997 and the deadliest since 1982. I will not forget the 2010 Pacific hurricane season - or Atlantic hurricane season - for a very long time to come, and I hope no other people on the Wikia will forget this year either, despite the worldwide inactivity overall. Ryan1000 00:19, October 17, 2010 (UTC)
IMO, THIS SEASON IS A BUST. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:13, October 19, 2010 (UTC)
The entire worldwide tropical cyclone season will be an epic bust, mainly because the Eastern and Western Pacific basins are setting record-low levels of activity this year. The Atlantic is only slightly above the 1995 to now average, but well above the 1900 to now long-term average. The sothern hemisphere is at one of their least active points seen in many years, and the West Pacific and Eastern Pacific basins are at their least active points on record. This year was very notable in terms of deaths and damages, but it is unbelievably inactive. I just can't believe how dead we are right now. Ryan1000 11:07, October 19, 2010 (UTC)
Me neither. Let's now talk about next year. any chance of EL Nino? YE Tropical Cyclone 01:28, October 23, 2010 (UTC)
I wouldn't look forward to that. I would expect a neutral year like most of 2008 was - even though 2008 did certainly have a La Nina in part of the season. I don't know what will happen in next year's season, but I'm expecting a near-average season, personally. From this season, I would expect no more storms, the least active season on record in terms of named storms and hurricanes. Agatha will be retired, and everyone else is forgotten. I guess this is how I would sum up 2010's Pacific season. Nothing else for me to do for now. Ryan1000 04:24, October 24, 2010 (UTC)

Dead Basin thing[]

Why is the EPAC so dead? YE Tropical Cyclone 15:40, September 5, 2010 (UTC)

No durr, it's Moderate/Strong La Nina. What do you expect? Darren23Edits|Mail 15:42, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
Watch this http://www.accuweather.com/video/590373063001/the-hurricane-season-is-it-dead-or-just-sleeping.asp?channel=vbbastaj JasonRees 15:52, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
In February, I thought we would still have a moderate El Nino through most of the year so I said 19-7-4. By June, I said 15-8-4. So this year is an underachiever from its original prediction. even then post-El Ninos are suppose to be fun. Look at 1992, 1998, and 2005. I need about 11-12 NS, and three to four interesting storms to make me satisfied. So far I have 6 NS and 2 interesting storms. YE Tropical Cyclone
Do we need to do this here too? :P --Patteroast 02:58, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
Blame Darren. He told me to do this. YE Tropical Cyclone

Replacement names[]

Well, this season is pretty much wraped up. Anyone have replacement suggestions for Agatha? Mine are:

Agatha: Amber, Amy, Alana, Adriana, Abigail, Abby, Allie, Alyssa, Alexa, Alexis, Angelica, Angela, Ashlee, Ava, Audrey.

I personally don't see Frank being retired... if anyone thinks otherwise, feel free to add Male "F" names for him.

Ryan1000 14:34, November 16, 2010 (UTC)

2011 Season[]

Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season -- Just to get an early start... Ryan1000.

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