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Storm Event Archives: Dean, Felix
Retirements At A Glance
It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are:
- Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths.
- Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct.
- Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical.
- Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total.
- Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like.
- Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely.
- Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable.
- Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement.
- Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds?
- Jerry: 0%. Bigger dud than Ingrid, but odd location of formation.
- Karen: 0%. Meh...not the most eventful storm, but was very familiar (Irene).
- Lorenzo: 10%. Normally, I'd say 20%, but given Mexico's track record...
- Melissa: 0%. Battered some fish...and that's about it.
- Noel: 85%. More lethal than Felix. Also, on a side note, my own opinion on this one is "What the heck happened here?!?"
- Olga: 40%. Not too sure, but isn't this, thus far, the deadliest off-season storm in the Atlantic?
So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. IPTalk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- SkyFury 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 220.127.116.11 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. IPTalk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
- Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- SkyFury 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC)
- You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a [very large] blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. IPTalk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC)
- Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- SkyFury 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC)
We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. IPTalk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC)
- You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC)
Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--18.104.22.168 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC)
- Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- SkyFury 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC)
- Here's my stats:
- Andrea:5% or lower - The storm did nothing much, just a couple fatalitites and .77 inches of rain.
- Barry:5% or lower -Unless a report comes out of substantial damage, I'd put a no on this one.
- Chantal:12.5%- 5.5 million in NFL is not much, although its got a say in what it wants to do with the name.
- Dean: 95-100%- Couple billion in damage, over 40 deaths, pretty much a retired name.
- Erin: 15% - When and if the TCR comes out, the damage total could be substantial enough for retirement. We'll have to wait however.
- Felix: 90-95%- Damage report will come out at some point, also 130+ deaths.
- Gabrielle: 5% or lower - Pretty much the same as Andrea.
- Humberto: 15-20% - If that 900 million was correct, we could've had a retirement here. Let's wait for the TCR.
- Ingrid: 0% - First fishspinner of the season, Not a chance.
- Jerry: 0% - Second fishspinner of the season, Not a chance.
- Karen: Unknown - Hasn't affected land yet, and very weak
- Lorenzo: Unknown - Wait till damage reports come out.
So far that's my stats.Mitchazenia 20:55, 28 September 2007 (UTC)
- Well, here's my prediction.
- Andrea: 6%. Off-season storm, killed 6 people, attained hurricane-force winds prior to formation, caused minimal damage, was quick to get an article.
- Barry: 4%. Killed 3 people, affected reigons of Mexico later to be hit by hurricane Dean, near-direct hit on Wiki-headquaters as tropical storm, survived shear, tropical storm force until hitting an area near Boston, major rainfall on Georgia, dumped a little rain in S Ontario.
- Chantal: 5%. Killed no one, caused nearly 6 million dollars of damage in Newfoundland, people affected by damage still angry, bridge destroyed, flooding in Newfoundland.
- Dean: 90%. Long-lasting category 5 cape verde hurricane, direct strike on Chetumal City as Category 5, caused rising oil prices and fears of strike on Texas, caused nearly $ 4 billion in dammage and killed more than 40 people.
- Erin: 22%. Major flooding in already-soaked Texas and Oklahoma, killed nearly 20 people, partially responsible for 2007 Midwest Flooding, responsible for nearly 20 more deaths and over 100 million dollars in damage, caused oil prices to rise, affected more than 10 states, tropical storm-force winds over Chicago, destryoed many cars and bridges.
- Felix: 85%. Killed over 130 people, destroyed Miskito Cays completely, broke numerous records, Mitch-like, category 5 landfall in Nicaragua, nearly strengthened to unimaginable strengths had it not gone through an ERC.
- Gabrielle: 3%. No one killed, Minimal damage, heavy rain around Carolinas, early fears of major hurricane, absorbed by strong low near Newfoundland.
- Humberto: 27%. Killed one person, quick strengthening to Category 1, near-direct hit on Houston, flooding in Texas and Louisiana, half a billion dollars in damage.
- Ingrid: 1%. Complete dud, nearly strengthened had wind shear not destroyed it, dissipating before hitting Puerto Rico, fears of a near-Floyd, no article.
- Ten: 1%. Possible remnants of Humberto, action taken by New Orleans, near strengthening to Tropical Storm, quick to get an article, tornado in Florida.
- Jerry: 1%. Complete dud, passed between Newfoundland and Azores, merged with storm near British Isles and Greenland.
- Karen: 1%. Complete dud, near strengthening to hurricane status, dissipated before hitting Puerto Rico, original fears of hurricane heading for United States.
- Lorenzo: 23%. Broke Humberto's record, hit area near that affected by Dean, 5 people killed, rain on Mexico City, quick strengthening.
- Melissa: 1%. Complete dud, near re-Vince, uncertain early trajectory, quick dissipation, tied September tropical storm record.
- Well, there you go. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:47, 3 October 2007 (UTC)
- The storms i think that will be retired are Dean Felix and Noel if the latter becomes a hurricane as NOAA will Request Retirement for all 3 Jason Rees 01:57, 1 November 2007 (UTC)
You think Noel will be retired with the number of people it's killed? Bob rulz 04:51, 2 November 2007 (UTC)
- 118 dead? Yup. If this one isn't immortalized I'll feel very sad for the state of the human race. -- SkyFury 02:40, 3 November 2007 (UTC)
- Please... don't get what's-his-name carrying on about Gordon yet again. 22.214.171.124 15:51, 3 November 2007 (UTC)
- Heh-heh, yeah, that's a good one, ya gotta admit that much, Eric. I'd give Noel a slightly higher chance of Felix than being retired, but it all depends on the damage reports (which one has higher percentages from me, that is.) I'll revise my estimates here.
- Andrea- 0% - No, no, NO. Oh, and by the way, NO.
- Barry- 1% - Well, you know, KLAUS got in. But still, no.
- Chantal- 2% - Five mil is not worth a retirement.
- Dean- 85% - Really significant damage in Jamaica, fair amount of deaths, and somewhat significant damage elsewhere. The intensity might also bias WMO more towards the "retire" side.
- Erin- 5% - Only slightly worse than Barry, but there was the Missouri incident, and Texas was in flood stage, so I'm bumping it up a little bit.
- Felix- 80-95% - Depends on the damage report; small, then the minimum, high, then the maximum. I say this because of the intensity, and the number of deaths (Stan was retired even though 80 of the deaths were recognized, although the damage was fairly high).
- Gabrielle- 1% - It did less damage than help, no deaths, and damage reports are so low that they have not come out yet. Plus, the whole ordeal just sucked, interesting-wise.
- Humberto- 15% - Did a fair amount of damage, but not really enough to be retired. However, the fast intensification might give a bias toward retirement.
- Ingrid- negative 54% - I will KILL anyone who nominates this storm.
- Jerry- negative 22% - I will only brutally maim anyone who nominates this storm.
- Karen- negative 10% - Well, you know ; ).
- Lorenzo- 12% - Unless the damage report is substantial, there isn't too much about this storm to get it retired. However, my reasoning is somewhat similar to Humberto.
- Melissa- 0% - I mean, come ON people.
- Noel- 80% - Same reasoning as Felix, except without intensity bias. May be a low estimate if really bad damage occurs in the Maritimes.
- If anyone cares, I'll give my "official" percentages:
- Andrea: 10% - just because it was so freaking cool
- Barry: 8% - those two motorists probably didn't much care for the whole dying thing
- Chantal: 5% - largely unnotable. Newfoundland got a little winded but nothing unlike the winter storms they have up there basically every year
- Dean: 85% - News channels didn't tell you this but Majahual was flattened. That town may never be the same. Raised hell in Jamaica, a popular place, sometimes that can tip the scales. But the big thing was the devestation in the Mexican mountains.
- Erin: 35% - those floods were devestating. 15-20 dead in the United States of America is pretty big. I hate to break it to you guys, but while there may not be an American bias, there is a high-profile-country bias (see Hurricane Klaus). On the flip side, there's an anti-tropical storm bias too. Allison had to kill 40 Americans to get the nod. Tropical Storm Bret in '93 and TS Alberto in '94 are good examples of this bias (however, the WMO seemed to have been made up entirely of meth addicts in the early 1990's. See Klaus, Gert, Gordon).
- Felix: 95% - true devestation. Nicaragua is no stranger to bad storms but this one is their worst since, I believe, Hurricane Joan in 1988. If this storm isn't retired I will have a tear tattooed on my cheak and hang myself from a tree in Managua.
- Gabrielle: 5% - I'm not even sure the weather on September 9 on the Outer Banks was all that bad. Gusty with scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm.
- Humberto: 20% - This is probably a little generous but damn, what a storm! Humberto didn't strengthen, it exploded. It went from blue skies to a raging hurricane in 18 hours. That's amazing.
- Ingrid: 1% - Do I really need to write anything here?
- Jerry: 4% - This sort of non-tropical origin seems to be becoming more and more frequent. I'm sure it's global warming (tongue-in-cheek).
- Karen: 5% - NHC won't upgrade it, but I'm pretty convinced that Karen was a hurricane, if briefly. It's not often a tropical storm gets an eye in the Atlantic (or anywhere, really, but especially the Atlantic). Peter in 2003 is an example, but that one's in question too. (*UPDATE*-hey, guess who's psychic. It was a hurricane and NHC did upgrade it)
- Lorenzo: 15% - Hurricane HJ Lorenzo the First is hereby banned from the Hurricane Hall of Fame for testing positive for steroids ;)
- Melissa: 0% - To mention this storm and 'retirement' in the same sentence is downright insulting to me (it is my sister's name, however, and Eric(k) was used in the Pacific, both shitty storms)
- Noel: 90% - My God, what the hell happened? We all thought the season was basically over and then this beast came along. It wasn't even that strong when it hit Hispaniola. That place is such a hellhole. Reminds me of Bangladesh. You hold your breath everytime it gets hit, no matter the intensity. The DR has some 'splaining to do I do believe.
- Olga: 35% - My opinion on Olga is similar to mine on Erin. Devestating floods (though helped by human error) but intensity, locale and the afforementioned oops (the gov't release of the dam) will work against it, I'm afraid. Still a terrible disaster. It ranks as the second deadliest offseason storm of all time (Jake, a storm in 1948 holds the top spot. It killed over 80 in about the same location.)
Ah, I see there's one more storm I need to do here...
- Noel - 85%: Not the worst storm of the year IMO, but one of the biggest and baddest nonetheless.
- Well, it looks like Dean was retired and replaced with Dorian, word at Wikipedia has it, but we’re not sure of the official info yet. What is wrong with the wiki, it won’t let me type more than 2 letters without freezing and jumping up! 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:20, 1 May 2008 (UTC)
Replacement names for likely retirements
While no names have been officially announced for retirement, most likely the names Dean, Felix, and Noel will be retired. While we are at it, lets speculate on replacement names:
Male D names
Male F names
Male N Names
Unfortunately there aren't very many good N names, however, how do you like these? 126.96.36.199 02:06, 19 December 2007 (UTC)
- You've got some pretty good picks for names (although I doubt Newton and Norbert are viable, seeing as they're both in-use East Pacific names). I'll add some new ones to the lists:
- Neidhart (Even though it's far from viable).
Oh good. This was always my favorite "betting pool". For the 'D's I think Derek, Donald, Dustin, Dexter, Darren, Drew, Doug and Dylan are all viable. I'll go with a childhood friend and say "Dustin" will be the chosen replacement. The 'F's are trickier, but I like Forrest out of all of them. Ford Motor Company probably would ask for it's company name not to be attached. Ferguson, Ferris, and Ferdinand aren't bad though. The 'N's, just in case Noel is tossed out, I would go with "Ned" because he was also a person I knew growing up. However, all the N names suggested so far are viable. Save for Napoleon. That won't be chosen.SargeAbernathy 10:38, 19 December 2007 (UTC)
- I personally think Doug is a bit too close to Douglas, an EPac name. However, Darren and Drew are both good names. 188.8.131.52 15:46, 19 December 2007 (UTC)
- There was also Typhoon's named Forrest in the WPac, but then again there were about 15 other Olga storms across the world. My choices for D, F and N are:
- Drew is too close to Andrew. Donald is too close to Don, which is in use. I like a few of the names mentioned. Derek (my favorite), Darren, Daryl, Damien, Doug, and Diego. Other possibilities include Davis, D'Angelo, Dale, Darius, Diedrich, Delwyn, Deon, Dmitri, Dominic, Dewey, Dwight, Dwayne, Duncan, and Dudley. Lots of 'D' options. As for 'F', the previously mentioned, Frasier, Forrest, Franz and Fritz are the only ones that interest me. Other options include: Fernando (this may be my favorite), Francisco, Filipe, Francois, and Flynn. On the 'N' front, I like Nigel. Nathan is not an option (Nate is in use) and Newton and Norbert are in the EPac. Nelson and Norton are good options, Ned too. Other possibles include: Neil (I like this one), Noah, Neville, Norris, Nolan, Niles, and Nomar. Keep in mind, it's not out of the question that we might need an "Emma/Eileen" or an "Orchid/Octavia". -- SkyFury 21:24, 20 December 2007 (UTC)
Sadly, Drew being added despite Andrew being retired isn't too far out of the question. Keep in mind that Fred was added to 2009 after Fabian got retired despite Frederic being long retired (and even on the same list).
(EDIT: E and O names? I can come up with a fair group excluding Emma/Eileen or Orchid/Octavia:
- Ora (Was a typhoon name)
- Orla (Used in the East Pacific before the 1978 changes).
- Fred and Frederic had a seperation of 25 years between Frederic's rampage and Fred's selection. Andrew and a would-be Drew would have only a 15 year seperation. In theory, the gap can't be less than 30 years. As you see, that is somewhat flexible, but not flexible enough for Drew IMO. -- SkyFury 17:58, 23 December 2007 (UTC)
- Being that Noel was a French name I don't think any of your N suggestions really fit. (Maybe Napoleon and Nestor). Maybe these would be more likely even if they do seem a bit fancy.
Among others. :P --184.108.40.206 20:37, 31 March 2008 (UTC)